The shooting of a police officer in Omagh on Thursday evening is another horrific reminder that Northern Ireland remains a deeply and dangerously divided society.
Though it has not been confirmed that the assailants were paramilitaries, the Police Service of Northern Ireland (PSNI) has stated that it is investigating links to dissident republicanism.
Detective Chief Inspector John Caldwell was shot multiple times, and is currently in a stable but critical condition, with what are described as “life-changing injuries”. A senior police officer, Caldwell has played a leading role in investigations of non-political criminality, but also high profile cases involving dissidents, including the killing of fellow PSNI officer Ronan Kerr in 2011, and that of journalist Lyra McKee in 2019 – the latter also resulting from an attempted attack on the police.
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For those reasons, the PSNI obviously sees dissidents as again being the likely perpetrators of this latest attack.
The timing of the assault also suggests political motivation. Like the killing of McKee, the attack comes at time of particular political uncertainty and instability in the region.
As in 2019, Northern Ireland’s power-sharing institutions are again in abeyance. In February 2022, the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) withdrew from the power-sharing government in protest over the trading arrangements for Northern Ireland that were established under Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal.
The political vacuum created by the absence of regional government in Northern Ireland leaves the space for dissidents, who are opposed to the peace process, to create further instability.
It is probably not a coincidence that the attack happened just as the UK government and the EU are edging towards a deal to resolve Brexit issues for Northern Ireland. As well as prompting the DUP’s protest, the trade barriers that have been created between the region and Great Britain have caused many practical problems for local traders and in the supply of vital items like medicines.
Dissidents would rather see a continuation of such difficulties, hoping that this encourages support for their radical aims, not simply to revise the Brexit deal but to show that any British role in Northern Ireland is unworkable and that Irish reunification is the answer.
Signs of a UK-EU compromise over Brexit arrangements for Northern Ireland have also triggered rebellion among the Tory right, members of which are warning Rishi Sunak not to give way to Brussels. Like the DUP, such voices oppose any EU influence in regulations for Northern Ireland.
There is clearly a concern that Sunak will agree to what is, in reality, a genuine, sensible and workable compromise with the EU in order to resolve the problems that Johnson’s deal caused for Northern Ireland. Dissidents fear the same, albeit for different reasons. Making Brexit work means making Northern Ireland work, and their aim is to overthrow the state and unite Ireland.
If dissidents were behind the assault on Caldwell, a more calculated political aim would be to encourage further Tory agitation. This would create a context in which it is harder for Sunak to sell any Brexit compromise with the EU to his party, or for the DUP leader, Jeffery Donaldson, to persuade his supporters. The Tory right and dissident republicans would thus find themselves in an unholy alliance, both working to defeat political progress in Northern Ireland.
An important year
One further factor may explain the timing of the attack on Caldwell. April marks the 25th anniversary of the Good Friday Agreement, which ended the Troubles. Most people feel the occasion would be best marked by a return of the power-sharing government that the accord created.
This might also explain Sunak’s eagerness to advance a deal with the EU that would in turn aid a return to power-sharing in Northern Ireland. There are even rumours that US president Joe Biden could visit Northern Ireland in April.
Biden’s presence for the anniversary would be a fitting way to recognise the vital role of the US government in helping to broker the 1998 accord. However, the prospect of a UK-EU deal that would help restore power-sharing, the related rumours of a presidential visit to Northern Ireland, and the resulting media attention that all this creates, provides an ideal opportunity for opponents of peace to show their capacity for disruption in the most devastating manner.
The immediate concern must be for Caldwell and his family. But rather than hearing the usual platitudes from politicians of all stripes, the best thing that they can do is redouble their efforts to make politics work for Northern Ireland.
Compromise is essential to such an endeavour. Only this will prove the futility of those who advance absolutist ideals, be they dissidents who reject any British role in Ireland, or Brexiteers who refuse any European influence in the UK. Both are fantasy projects; both will end in failure. Political compromise is the only way forward.
Peter John McLoughlin, Lecturer in Politics, Queen’s University Belfast
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Trans-nationalist institutions like the EU and UK are by nature an external locus of control. Both of which are vying over the divided Irish nation.
It’s like having a house owned by multiple landlords with each tenant paying a different one and trying to decide how to refurbish the place. No wonder there’s conflict.
Trans Nationalist UK ! Sorry but the Empire died off a while back. If you don’t see the irony of our present PM trying to sort out a Tribal conflict in the UK then you need glasses or a reality check, he just may have a totally non biased but grown up attitude to a solution. The issue isn’t the imposition of a system by others; it is that the 2 sub tribes involved are intransigent and biggoted against each other. The stupidity is beyond belief when you consider that the Sub Tribes have a joint History and language, interspersed… Read more »
You hit the nail on the head.
Both groups have the same culture and customs, languages are very close and they have fine drinks that they make. My family learned over a century ago not to give any credence to religion in this relationship. Once you don’t care about Rome or English monarchy,,, life is much better. Much.
It can get a bit awkward sometimes I describe myself as follows.
A proud Scot.
A Unionist.
British
European (but not pro EU)
A Christian.
But I will defend anyone of any Faith, Gender, Colour, Orientation who respects my right to be any of the above.
Except the French (that may pass).
Ooops, I thought you were a yank and not a proud Scotsman and brother. My sincere apologies.
Accepted. As for corruption in Scotland I honestly don’t think we could cope with anymore.
Pull the other one, it has bells on it. Over on the American side of the pond. You folk just send money and weapons so the thick black bog Irish can have the battles for you. It’s akin to supporting college football teams. I’ve been to NY on St Patricks Day. Witnessed with my own eyes the buckets being passed around collecting money for the IRA. So don’t try and solve a problem your countrymen have fuelled for more than 100 years. BTW, tell the usurper biden, he has more chance of being a little green Martian with Alzheimer’s than… Read more »
“Divided Irish nation”? Eh no there are two different countries on the island of Ireland and that is what people need to get their head around!
For all of the self deception, it never went away.
Nothing more than organised crime.
This copper must have been getting close to something.
The IRA’s main activities used to be drug and diesel smuggling.
There was a, quite clever, set of diesel tanks that were on the boarder with pipes running under the border. So you could fill the tank in say the South with red diesel and it would then appear in the North as clean(ish), if rather acidic, road diesel. Their dye chemistry wasn’t very clever!
Organised crime and extortion rackets were given ‘political’ cover….
South Armagh, Thomas Slab Murphy, the bad old days.
I think he was actually convicted of fuel excise duty fraud finally after getting off on numerous technicalities over the years?
I don’t know. Some of it was good fun. Demetrius was a hoot, as was 30/01/72. The UDR lads were MAD keen. MAD “make a difference.”
“MAD “make a difference.”
It certainly helps!
A little like Swiss conscripts, they took their weapons home with them.
Off duty, they turned out with the same rank for the UVF, UDA, UDF etc. Mad being the operative word here.
It was called the Heineken effect. Reaching the parts other beers couldn’t reach when on duty.
Not just the various shades of IRA, the Loyalists are no different.
In some respects more naked criminality without the cress and dressing of a political movement.
Really the whole thing on both sides was a cloak for organised crime dressed up as politics.
The joke was the Americans were funding organised crime so could have been prosecuted under the RICHO statutes (or any of the very tough anti mob laws) over there.
Agreed, NORAID, one of the biggest fundraisers for terrorism. There used to be money pots on bars in Boston and New York to support the IRAs killing of British Empire troops. Thankfully this plastic paddy nonsense mostly stopped after 9/11. Pity none of the big NORAID fundraisers got done for supporting terrorism.
T Blair played that card with Bush. Part of our collaboration in the war on terror. No prosecutions that I know of but lets say, offers were made that could not be refused.
Not sure what is happening now. I can’t imagine the sectarian wounds have healed.
Same criminality and attitude but due to years of time to prepare and Military opportunities they are way better armed and trained.
They really aren’t.
There’s no difference Mark, both sides are simple criminal organisations trying desperately to keep their respective populations under their control and influence.
Organised crime dressed up as politics…
Quite simple really…
I’m not saying that there’s a difference in them that way, I agree with you totally there. All I meant was that the Loyalists aren’t “some better trained/armed groups”, they are just the same type of thugs with different rackets.
🙄
You think the Loyalist groups like the UVF don’t do the same as the Shades of IRA do?😏
Chaos breeds opportunists looking for ways to make a quick profit. Money buys many things, including the loyalty of said opportunists. Human natures is the true root of all evil, not money.
At least the loyalists were mainly on our side.
That’s absolute bollocks, have you got anything to back that statement up?You should not make such a bold claim on here if you don’t.
Really!
Oh dear.
This kind of “educated” commentary does more to feed the narrative than the shooting does. No organisation has claimed the incident, all sides have roundly and unreservedly condemned it. This has all the markings of incidents at the end of the troubles that involved organised crime hiding behind a cause in order to get rich. Although no cause has so far risen up as camouflage. While there aee divisions still in NI as there are in all healthy democracies a return to terrorism is long passed. As said above this is most likely what would be called an organised crime… Read more »
“The Tory right and dissident republicans would thus find themselves in an unholy alliance, both working to defeat political progress in Northern Ireland.” Indeed, neither of these groups is interested in any other outcome other than complete victory for their position. If I understand it correctly the ‘Windsor Framework’ would have the status of an international treaty ( I think the Good Friday Agreement was only a bi-lateral agreement between 2 states; the UK and the Republic of Ireland.) It affords international recognition to the democratically assembly which represents the people of Northern Ireland. From the perspective of international law… Read more »
It’s hardly abortion, the DUP would be crazy and not accept it though, its as good a deal as they are likely to get and long term their voter demographic is in steep decline so their hand weakens every election. On the plus side is all sides agree and there is political stability for the first time in 7 years we could see a lot of UK based companies relocating to NI if they have free trade with both the UK and EU. If NI politicians were not so dependant on English welfare they could reduce the corporate tax to… Read more »
No the GFA is an international Treaty, fully registered with the UN, and I don’t see how you think this new arrangement has changed anything of the status of NI,as for the DUP, well they will likely say NO as always.
Thanks for that info Mark. A NO response from the DUP would certainly be in character. I hope they choose to respond constructively. We all live on a diverse world. Life is hard of you can’t parse cultural identify from national jurisdiction.
Time heals all wounds. The people of NI want nothing to do with the troubles and are beginning to move away from the hardline parties and look to the future. The DUP know this and have a choice they can either modernise and moderate their views or be rejected by the voters. If NI can establish a position with a foot in both camps it doesn’t get much better for the Irish people. The best of both worlds you might say. Sure the DUP will probably push for a few minor changes but at the end of the day the… Read more »
While the Alliance has grown, the DUP and TUV still hold a majority of the Unionist vote and thats not likely to change as the UUP are still a shadow of what they once were (same as how SF has pushed down the SDLP vote), as to what the DUP will do now…The Protocol is only one issue, having a SF First Minister is sticking sideways with them, and I can’t see Jeffery giving up his seat in Westminster to go to Stormont. My guess is they will find another reason to say no.
The UK and the EU are now begining to see reality. Cooperation has only just started. It is in everyones interests from Goverment to the man on the street to ensure that nationalism fades away as fast as possible. Whilst clearly the divisions still exist they will continue to crumble as individuals increasing have better things to focus their minds on. Support for the old guard can’t last forever …
…
It’s Northern Ireland, they are still arguing over who walks what road over a battle hundreds of years ago, letting things go isn’t something either community does. Any election always comes down to Orange or Green, and Green having the numbers to take the FM spot is going to be used by the TUV and DUP as a rallying call (which sadly will likely work), as for Cooperation…Given the state of relations that’s going to take years/decades to rebuild to what it was.
It’s a little like discussing the defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine. Nobody seems to doubt that it will happen just how long. 😀
I think you will find the parades commission have to agree on routes for marches! They certainly don’t go through contentious areas anymore.
Oddly political figures in NI are going to have to come up with some policies which chime with the views of the electorate. Religion and Nationalism alone are not going to cut it anymore.
Carville’s slogan in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign comes to mind….’It’s the economy, stupid’.
Not when it comes down to “does it help them lot, or our lot?” NI parties have shown little to no wish to try and resolve the deep social and economical issues that NI has had, and I have little faith that they will start.
Mmm. Let’s see if a visit from Biden changed attitudes: a dangling of US investment perhaps?
It hasn’t yet, please don’t forget that the US has been doing that since the GFA, along with Dublin and London. It hasn’t changed much of anything at the structural level.
Not thus far in NI otherwise mainstream candidates would have stood. It might well be in the future. In the past the slogan might have been ..’It’s the union, stupid’.. or ’It’s religion, stupid’.
Or is it….’we have run this place since 1921 so we have a divine right to the First Minister job?’
Having lived in both Northern Ireland ((Funny enough in Omagh) and in Cyprus , where the EU is abutted next to 2 outside of the EU states. I have to ask what demands does the EU make of Turkey regards the north, yes I know it’s supposed to be an independent state. The fact remains it is Turkish soldiers you see wearing blue berets in the North, it is the Turks who provide , well everything for the north, in fact it was the Turks who used force to stop companies prospecting for Hydrocarbons in Cypriot waters and yet the… Read more »
Turkey is in the customs Union so problem solved.
Jim,
Northern Cyprus, isn’t thou.in fact only one country in the world recognises it, Turkey.
Honestly if I was the Head of the EU or NATO my quite nightmare would be a war between Greece and Turkey and then just watch the whole of the Balkans get involved.
The consequences of Boris Johnson wiping his ass with the Good Friday agreement. I’m sure all the little englander’s are feeling proud about their “freedom” now.
As one very eloquent women from the homes counties put it to me, if Scotland and Northern Ireland don’t like it they can **** off.
There it is in a nutshell! The Good Friday agreement and the protocol are two different things,Nobody here was wanting the GFA changed that was jumped on by every man and his dog with am agenda(Biden) It was and is a problem with trade inside of the UK! Hopefully there is a glimmer of hope that is about to change but the stumbling block is still the EU wanting to poke its nose into NI politics with rules that no other part of the UK will be subject too.
A reminder, NI has always had different arrangements than GB even predating joining the EU, whether you are talking about Agri checks (London had long ago agreed that the island would be treated as one separate area), or in population (up until joining the EEC, GB people couldn’t move to NI without proof of employment, did that happen from Scotland to England?), to products being supplied to NI (look at many financial ads on UK TV and in the small print you will find “not applicable to NI”). Given the fact that NI is integrated into the Irish economy, with… Read more »
I can’t find anything about needing a job to move to NI in the time you have mentioned on the inter web so if you have that in writing please share. The agri checks were implemented to stop mad cow disease from reaching here which everyone can see was necessary,but the ban on certain medications etc available in the rUK here was not welcome!
I learned it from someone who worked in the NI administration after direct rule was introduced, and no the Agri checks weren’t brought in just for Mad Cow, think they were first discussed in the 1960’s Anglo-Irish Trade deal.
The agreement here nothing about restrictions on livestock that happened with mad cow.
https://www.encyclopedia.com/international/encyclopedias-almanacs-transcripts-and-maps/anglo-irish-free-trade-agreement-1965
How any movement between NI and GB could be enforced is really not possible! Due to the CTA you could even move to the ROI with no restrictions.and vice versa.
I think the easy way to do it was add the checks at the actual border. they don’t have to be all physical. at that point EU will go OK then.
The PSNI among others disagree with you. The border has never been controlled even at the height of the deployment of security forces, trying to control it in a predominately Nationalist area is asking for more violence.
Quite rirght👍
I blame the Greased Piglet for the present mess. As for the shooting? Sad as always, but the IRA never went away, never will. You do not undo hundreds of years of hate because Plastic Paddies stateside involve themselves, constant interference in British domestic affairs is just that. Still, we have sent Prince Ginger Nut the Taliban killer there now. Redresses the balance a bit. All this constant screwing with NI does is increase hate and division. Attend a present day march to see that.
Nobody thought NI would see any kind of peace yet it did. Decades have passed. Will the people of NI allow things to return to violence with all the problems that carries? We will see but they have every reason to ask the gunmen to return to the shadows.
You are wrong on every count. If just if, that majority ever votes to unite with ROI? You will have a civil war. I do not know where you live, but imagine being a British citizen, and having your life ruled by a foreign entity, and you have no say at the ballot box of that foreign entity and no influence over the process. Imagine being a second-class Briton, treated by Westminster as an afterthought. As for your comment on politicians? Trust in any politician of any shade is just plain stupid. They shaft the population at any and every… Read more »
There are far too many angry people in NI on all sides with their eyes on history (which cannot be changed) and they will probably take their views to the grave. My point is to highlight the increasing number of mainly younger people who own the future in NI. Whilst I would not be surprised to see a referendum I suspect many, regardless of religion or their parents entrenched positions, will see the benefits of being part of the EU & part of the UK and vote for no change. Clearly there is always a risk and personally I would… Read more »
Right or wrong politicians must invoke the will of the people especially if told twice – I’m just pleased that both sides now have accepted things and are prepared to make the best of it. Cooperation is returning which is in everyones interest. Never want to hear the B word again.😂
Of course you are right but it really doesn’t help when the FM elect condemns the PSNI shooting but still attends an ira man’s funeral!
Some people do not “get it”.
Doesn’t help. It will be good for the FM to take up the political reigns, sharing power, whilst understanding it isn’t easy and the people giveth and the people can taketh away.
It will be interesting to see if these terrorist organisations can be reignited. Personally I suspect a critical mass of people in NI have moved on in their thinking or are too young to have thought that way in the first place. Time will tell.
They have.
Over 25 years of peace has worked wonders in comparison to the 30 years of violence.
Interestingly one of the Irish papers is reporting that it might have been a “cross community” attack with a Loyalist aligned drug gang supplying the weapons for the New IRA attack.
Interesting. Just criminal gangs acting in their own self interest, some form of false flag exercise perhaps to undermine the peace process or an attempt to deflect blame for an act which is probably not going down well in either community.
What must his wee son, family,,young group of footballers,be going through right now????
Here we go again. External players causing trouble in the British Isles. If it’s not the yanks it’s the sprouts from Brussels stirring up the hatred. Why we can’t just build a sold impenetrable border between the fenians and the civilised North, beats me.