The UK defence industry could create 50,000 additional jobs by 2035 if government spending rises to 3% of GDP, according to new analysis released by trade body ADS.
Employment in the sector already stands at more than 180,000, with most jobs outside the South East and paying above-average salaries. The ADS modelling suggests that a long-term uplift to 3% of GDP would not only expand the workforce but also raise the sector’s gross value added to the economy from £15 billion in 2024 to £23.5 billion in 2035, an increase of over 50%.
If commitments rise further to 3.5% of GDP, ADS forecasts the creation of 85,000 direct jobs in defence.
Kevin Craven, CEO of ADS, said the figures demonstrate both security and economic value. “The primary purpose of defence and security is to protect and deter – but in the process, the value we provide to the economy is increasingly critical to innovation and prosperity,” he said. “With a deteriorating security environment, the government’s acknowledgement of the need to immediately bolster our defence is hugely welcome. An increase in spending of this magnitude delivers on the long-term demand signal that helps the defence sector to do what we do best: deliver capabilities that are needed to uphold our security, in a way that delivers value for money to the citizens we are here to protect.”
He also argued that the sector’s contribution to society is often overlooked. “While the cost of living rises and societal pressures increase, it’s right that we are raising awareness of the good that we, as a sector, provide for the UK tangibly for citizens,” Craven said.
“Our sector drives social mobility and prosperity through the high proportion of jobs we offer people from all walks of life, through the international opportunities and high-tech development partnerships we build, and through the wide range of improvements to civilian life and everyday technology that originate in our sector.”
The findings come ahead of the launch of the government’s new Defence Industrial Strategy, expected to be announced on 8 September. ADS, which represents more than 1,600 companies in aerospace, defence, security and space, said the data was shared with officials before the strategy’s release.
The trade body notes that growth would be driven by the combination of higher defence spending, rising exports, and broader economic expansion, with the UK continuing to exceed NATO spending targets.
It is not wise to obsess over a percentage. Personally I would anticipate the capital budget needs to double until such time as we have ample kit in all areas and we need to be creative when it comes to people. The military needs all types with a vast range of skills. We need to plan and implement not worry too much about the cost.