The declaration of an alternative capital in Melitopol suggests that the Russian forces are facing difficulties in their attempts to seize Zaporizhzhia, a major objective of the conflict.
The following is a defence intelligence update issued by the Ministry of Defence in the UK.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 19 March 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/6px8VoJGNP
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/QlZt6nxLdx
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 19, 2023
“On 3 March 2023, authorities in the Russian-controlled part of Zaporizhzhia Oblast published a decree that declared occupied Melitopol as the oblast capital.
The Russian-installed head of the oblast, Evgeniy Balitskiy, said that this was a temporary measure until the city of Zaporizhzhia was controlled by Russia.
Zaporizhzhia is one of the four oblasts President Putin claimed to have annexed as part of the Russian Federation on 30 September 2022.
Russia has never occupied Zaporizhzhia city, a major industrial centre of 700,000 people, which is approximately 35km from the current front line.
The quiet declaration of an alternative capital is likely tacit acknowledgement within the Russian system that its forces are highly unlikely to seize previously planned major objectives in the near future.”
Good luck with that.
Russia is still a tough opposition for Ukraine. Forcing Russia from Ukraine is going to be a tough mission.
We will see how the next offensives turns out.
Russia seems to be having a bit of a quiet spell with daily attacks dropping 3/4 from 75-100 a day. They could just be having a break or it may point to bigger issues
I’m sure JohnMK will explain those to us shortly as being part of the Master Plan whilst the Wonder Weapons are readied!!
Or alternatively, the Russian army is poorly equipped and badly lead with soldiers who don’t want to be there and NATO’s last generation weapons have taken out any Russian kit that is vaguely useful and munitions dumps any wagers vaguely close to the front line are identified and taken out?
I wonder which it is…..?
It will be interesting to see how Ukraine is going to use it’s newer western armour, Bradley’s, maurders, AMX, tanks etc.
Will they operate together as separate units or as a mix up with T64, T72, BTR, BMP etc.
The Ukrainian versions of T64 is one vehicle I’d like more info on. There’s the basic info on wiki etc but when what I’ve seen Ukraine seem to use it very well.
They have had since 2014 to upgrade what they had with quiet UK help. There is probably a transfer of tactical knowledge.
However, calls to carry out manoeuvre warfare with T62 could be misplaced as I don’t see the T62 having the range or more importantly the accuracy to do that.
So I hope they use the NATO stuff in a concentrated elite spear – if it is scattered it would be a logistics nightmare.
“elite spear”
Stop giving the Russians any ideas 😂
You misunderstand comrade. The T62 is the wunder veapon…….
It is a wonder weapon. I agree. If you happen to be from the 1960s.
Have you seen the T64 T-rex turret upgrade that never happened? That thing is a “beast” and hopefully this war they can reverse that decision and get them out there. The ungraded turret is meant to just plug into all Ukraines existing types of tanks to bring them all up to date together, the electronic systems and optics were not far off western designs and would’ve been very advanced for a soviet type to bring it on par with say T90.
LOL, He’s busy making sixth-generation spades to fight with on the front line come the spring offensive. Their current ones are wearing out!
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/22/%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0_1917_%D0%B8_1939_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0.JPG/220px-%D0%9C%D0%B0%D0%BB%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BF%D0%B5%D1%85%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F_%D0%BB%D0%BE%D0%BF%D0%B0%D1%82%D0%B0_1917_%D0%B8_1939_%D0%B3%D0%BE%D0%B4%D0%B0.JPG
A Ukrainian commander was sacked recently for admitting the truth around their own losses, which would appear to be significantly worse than reported, which isn’t a huge surprise considering all the information warfare going on. It does however mean that the idea they are going to kick Russia out might be becoming less and less realistic, as no amount of hardware from the west is going to make up for deaths of trained soldiers, which are needed for the kit. This kit should have arrived a year ago or at least 6months ago. Not that Russia is in any better… Read more »
The question surely real is is ‘is the differential effector of NATO tanks + APC + NLAWS + concentrated local air support enough to overcome the stalemate in an equipment matched environment?’
If the effect is dispersed no: if the effect is concentrated yes. To my mind anyway.
its going to be interesting, as the front line is huge, so concentrated usage will only get them so far, nice for small gains but we will have to see if its enough to really make a difference.
But you use it tactically and strategically to change momentum locally? Once the Russian static lines have been broken through then it is a mop up operation and as the Russians have zero counter or urban skills where does that leave them? The thing about the Russian static lines is that it is easy to take out the key locations with say CH2/AS90/HIMARS they are all grid coordinates – then once the comms/ammunition/fuel/food are degraded then progress is enabled. So in a sense the Russians have handed it to the Ukranians once they use precision locally with sufficient mass. Then… Read more »
Certainly HIMARS hitting the ammo dumps has made a huge difference, as the amount of russian shelling has significantly reduced but they are already there. It’s now about the 200 odd tanks that have been sent and whether they can be a game changer or not.
200 tanks is a huge mass to use locally. The key thing is the range at which they are accurate in a hit to kill probability. I would say it is probably double to triple the range of the Russian junk. So that can safely shoot scoot and shoot with very little risk of realistic retaliation. We have seen the difference that a limited number of HIMARS / M270 has made. Likewise 30 or so AS90 has been a game changer as they are accurate at range. Taking things out is the objective not throwing rounds in the vague direction.… Read more »
As90s aren’t a game changer. France etc have been supplying Ukraine with better platforms for months. For sure they will help as mass is important but not going to change the war like the initial hirmars did. Who knows about the tanks, I suspect the same as it’s not like Ukraine is getting all 200 odd at once, it’s over a long period of time with a few here and there over that period.
AS90 is much better than the Russian equivalents.
You only have to overmatch by so such?
Beyond that there is little material gain.
Are they better? A couple of years ago retired generals were complaining that we were out reached and out gunned by Russia because as the AS90s hadn’t been upgraded.
Admittedly it’s the generals that only seem to identify issues after they retire, before everything is just fine.
There is a big difference between gross range and range at which hit to kill probabilities are high.
Fair.
To an extent that was true. It was based on not getting the longer 52 cal barrel for the AS90. The 39 cal barrel was a standard NATO requirement. But with modern material technology barrels can be made longer that can sustain a higher rate of fire. The Soviet Union developed the MSTA-S, which was a counter to the M109, it uses an automated 152mm cal 47 barrel. After the break up of the Soviet Union, Russia continued its development and then put it in to production. The MTSA-S can lob a standard HE shell further than the AS90. There’s… Read more »
Indeed, if Ukraine can use the modern equipment and precision fires to undertake manoeuvre warfare and start isolating loss poorly trained large static Russian formations you could seen another summer of swift changes and regaining some more major towns. A month or two after the end of the spring mud season will tell us how this summers Campaign season is likely to go.
I didn’t see that. Ukraine has lost about 400 of its T64 tanks. The conflict is an absolute nightmare but Ukraine has no option but to fight. I’m a bit surprised Russia is willing to accept such a beating for such little gains.
I think what’s different about Ukraine stats on the war is they aren’t saying anything. Russia on the other hand just pumps out nonsense.
Putin has backed himself into a corner. He has no doubt promised the people around him the riches of Ukraine, and stated they will have to suffer short term from sanctions, now if he pulls out the sanctions will remain with no reward for them around him. His stuck to the end.
I think the west could say it would drop the sanctions and go back to business as usual if Russia pulled back from all of Ukraine. Main thing being to stop the war.
While I don’t think putin would go for it if he had an accident near an open window a moderately sensible new president might.
Business as usual is very unlikely to happen but that’s up to companies unwilling to work with Russia. Main thing is to end the Russian invasion
I don’t think the west would go for it either, many due to US polictics but also similar issues across nato. Look at the sanctions on Iran, there was a great deal done, that might have opened up Iran and eventually made them less of an issue (if you make people more wealthy they see the advanages of travel etc and become less aggressive to the wider world, marginalising the extremists) but the republicans got in and killed it, because they see it as a chance to show US dominance. Just look at Cuba, after this long a period is… Read more »
Russia forced to admit difficulties in doing anything….
Not everything :
– Drunkenness
– Rape
– Torturing civilians
– Murdering civilians
– Looting from civilians
They’re very good at these. In fact, they might have no equal.
All too true sadly.
They also very good at
• tank-turret airborne displays
• organising military vehicles into compact long straight lines
• diminishing stocks of Javelins/ NLAWS
• getting prisoner-recruits to re-enact WW1 scenes of walking slowly in a line towards machine guns
• using missiles to hit targets at long-range with a precision of +/- 10 miles
• the martial art of the entrenching tool
• portraying ignominious decisive defeats as victories
• retreating…
And don’t forget cleverly following in the tracks of the previous BMP which hit a mine just seconds before. That skill you just cannot teach…….
It’s fortunate that it’s an innate skill as they apparently don’t give them any training 😏
Add to that kidnapping and enforced relocation of children.
Not a surprise really. They’ve been trying to take Vuhledar for a year now and not succeeded. In one attempt the Russians lost 136 tanks and AFVs.
Meanwhile the Ukrainian artillery based there can target any train running on the only line linking the Crimea and the Donbas.
There have been reports on various YouTube sites of the Ukr carrying out deep raids in this area🤞
It would be a good jumping-off point for a push south to the sea and Melitopol, splitting Russian forces. But before doing a concerted drive like that, it would make sense to do deep raids…
So much for the much feared Russian spring offensive. It’s turned out to be a very attritionally costly damp squid.
To qoute Wellington…”they are coming on in the same old fashion” meaning no change to the human wave attacks, no integrated arms approach, no armoured breakthrough.
The Russian army really is quite rubbish. I’m about to go fight in Ukraine Vs Ruskies with my 90 year old granny. She thinks she can defeat the Russians alone with her armoured camode and Zimmer frames. 😅🤣😅😂😅 What do you think to that Johnski you Putinbot?
Really if that’s true then we don’t need to send any more supplies do we fact is Russia is manufacturing 490,000 artillery shells a month the us and nato combined cannot match that and are in the process of mobilising 1.5 million troops there at about 700,000 at moment only one end to this war unless we all join in
What are you talking about? NATO hasn’t mobilised anyone. The USA has moved a few more troops to Europe, but no-one is calling up reservists or starting conscription. As for shell production – there is a massive shortage of shells in the Russian Army – Wagner does nothing but moan about how little ammunition they are getting – meanwhile the West is (albeit slowly) ramping up production with multiple EU countries committing to 500k to 1 million shells per annum (the US is also massively boosting production) One of the theories behind Russia sending T54/55s to the front line is… Read more »
I must admit I am a bit apprehensive with regards to Ukraine’s forthcoming counter-offensive. If they are waiting for their 200 Western tanks to turn up before kicking off, then it makes sense. As the Leopards especially, should be used in masse as one battle group along with other key enablers such as HIMARS, Archer, Pz2000 etc. But, this is the bit I’m worried about, say Ukraine get lucky and only loose 1/3 of the tanks through damage or destroyed etc. They will need to recover them for repair, hence why we, the Canadians etc are giving them the recovery… Read more »
The Challenger Tank conundrum has been discussed on here with great enthusiasm over the last few months, information seems to be scarce about moves to secure any supplies from Oman and Jordan. Regarding the Jordanian CR1’s Nicholas Drummond on twitter thinks that this idea can’t progress for one of two possible reasons (1) as highlighted on here by a few posters their poor material state makes it a non starter, or (2) the Jordanian government are not prepared to play ball and release them, make of that what you will.
Agreed, but as far as I’m aware, the tanks were put in sheds for storage. I have not read or heard on what state the tanks are in materially. We have very good relations with Jordan. I haven’t seen anything that has altered this relationship. Especially as we have aircraft patrolling their border and flying through their airspace fully armed. The onus is on the Foreign Office to sweet talk Jordan in reciprocating our gifting of the Challengers to them. I‘ve read Nick’s posts for a number of years. We have had our disagreements, but in general agree on most… Read more »
We didn’t gift the CR1s to Jordan – they made a payment. I agree that it is speculation that the 392 tanks we sold them are all in poor condition.
We are sending 14 CR2s to UKR – that is 10 tanks for the tank company and 4 Attrition Reserve. I strongly believe that we could and should send more than this figure. Not sure why you are talking about the feasibility of re-opening the CR2 production line? I agree that it would be good if Oman offered its 38 CR2s and if Jordan offered its several hundred CR1s (which could be refurbished (in a minor way) quickly and cheaply in Jordan at KADDB) – I wonder if anyone from UK MoD has asked them? I hope so. Jordan is… Read more »
The Falcon unmanned turret sadly didn’t go anywhere. Had a different crew layout to a T14. Where the gunner and commander were sat on the turret floor below the upper hull line and moved with the turret. In some respects they would have had better situational awareness than the T14s. As if and when the cameras fail, they would both able to see to the sides and rear. Looks like it also had a new 120mm smoothbore gun replacing the legacy L11. With regards to the reason for restarting the production line for Challenger. That is quite simple. Ukraine is… Read more »
I am aware that Ukraine has requested 300 western tanks and there is a promise of about 200 by several countries. The USA has offered 31 but these may not even be delivered this year – hopeless and not a superpower response. There are a huge number of Leo2s in European hands (in-service and out-of-service (in storage) and several hundred should have ben offered up. The way ahead is surely for the US and European nations to hugely uplift their offer of Abrams and Leo2s respectively. I feel that our contribution of 14 tanks is very modest and that we… Read more »
Cheers Graham. it’s as I thought. My cousin was REME attached to the Royal Scots’ before they swopped they’re Challengers for Jackels. Then he went down the brown shoe route! I have a lot of Challenger stories from him. Apparently one of the most difficult items to get hold of, were replacement tyres for the road wheels. A lot of the time the good/better ones were rotated amongst tanks that were needed for deployments/exercises, with those going in the sheds for maintenance. So I wouldn’t be surprised that the ones in long term storage haven’t been robbed for good wheels.… Read more »
Great post! The CR3 project is well overdue – we should have fielded such tanks a few years ago – maybe retired CR2 in 2018-2023 after 20-25 years service, replaced with CR3 – whilst being well on the way to development of the tank after CR3 – let us call it CR4. If CR4 is MGCS, I would consider that to be evolutionary from Leo/Leclerc and unlikely to be revolutionary. CR4 needs to be revolutionary. [Replacing losses – just 148 CR3s allow for a very small Attrition Reserve – this is worrying]. The loss of true tank factories is also… Read more »