At about 06:00 Moscow time, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military operation; minutes later, missile strikes began at locations across the country, including near the capital Kyiv.

In his address, Putin said there were no plans to occupy Ukraine′s territory and claimed he supported the right of the peoples of Ukraine to self-determination. Putin also stated that Russia was seeking the “demilitarisation and denazification” of Ukraine and he called on Ukrainian soldiers to lay down their arms.

In Brief

  • Russian President Vladimir Putin orders a military operation to “demilitarize and de-Nazifiy” Ukraine. (CNN) (Business Insider)
  • Russian ballistic and cruise missiles strike multiple Ukrainian cities and airfields, including the capital Kyiv and Kharkiv. (CNN)
  • Russian troops attack the port cities of Odessa and Mariupol in amphibious landings. (CNN)
  • Belarusian soldiers assist Russia in invading Ukraine. (CNN)
  • Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy declares martial law across the country in response to the invasion. (TASS)
  • The Ukrainian Air Force says it is “repelling” Russian invaders. (BBC)
  • The Russian Armed Forces say its “lightning offensive” has crippled the Ukrainian military and suppressed its air defence systems. (TASS)
  • Ukraine says it has shot down five Russian warplanes and a helicopter, according to its Joint Centre of Control and Coordination. (First Post)
  • A senior Ukrainian government official says “hundreds” of Ukrainian troops” have already been killed in Russian airstrikes. (The Wall Street Journal)

What’s happening?

Within minutes of Putin’s announcement, explosions were reported in Kyiv, Kharkiv, Odessa and the Donbas.

Ukrainian officials said that Russia landed troops in Odessa and Mariupol and launched cruise and ballistic missiles at airfields, military headquarters, and military depots in Kyiv, Kharkiv, and Dnipro.

Later, the Ukrainian military denied information about the landing of the Russian army in Odessa. Military vehicles entered Ukraine through Senkivka at the point where Ukraine meets Belarus and Russia around 6:48 a.m. local time.

According to Ukrainian Minister of State Anton Herashchenko just after 06:30 UTC+2, Russian forces were invading via land near the city of Kharkiv and large-scale amphibious landings were reported at the cities of Mariupol and Odessa; Heraschenko confirmed the landings near Odessa.

At 07:40, the BBC cited other sources in saying that troops were also entering the country from Belarus. The Ukrainian Border Force reported attacks on sites in Luhansk, Sumy, Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Zhytomyr, as well as from Crimea.

Following one hour offline, the Ukrainian Defense Ministry’s website was restored. The Ministry claimed that it had shot down five planes and one helicopter in Luhansk.

Shortly before 07:00 (UTC+2), President Zelenskyy announced the introduction of martial law in Ukraine. In light of a request by the Russian Ministry of Defense asking air traffic control units of Ukraine to stop flights, airspace over Eastern Ukraine has restrictions to civilian air traffic, with the whole area being deemed an active conflict zone by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA).

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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214 COMMENTS

    • Nothing anyone who sought to describe Putin’s malevolence before this morning could have hoped to achieved the degree of unanimity around the world as his own actions are doing. This is not in fact worth much; those closest to this maniac, with the possible exception of Poland, will do what they have historically always done and that is collaborate along with new comer Germany. The west is once again exposed as the Anglo-American sphere – though I am doubtful about Canada – and the only fibrous part of N.A.T.O. is the U.S and U.K. who will struggle to organise the rest. I wouldn’t bother. On the other hand, defence and procurement will move swiftly from the Cinderella kitchen to the front parlour.

      Incidentally. does anyone know if Stop the War are protesting outside the Russian Embassy?

      • Have no doubts about Canada – she will do the right thing. She was recently supplying Ukraine with military kit worth $7.8CAN.

        Canadian DND: “this equipment includes machine guns, pistols, carbines, 1.5 million rounds of ammunition, sniper rifles, and various related equipment.”
        
        Previously non-lethal materiel had been supplied including body armour and field hospital equipment.

        • I should have made it clear I distinguish between Canada, her armed forces and people and the present government. Historically, Canada has nothing to prove.

        • As a Canadian, what I can assure you that the Canadian Government will do is talk. And it will talk endlessly. … The Armed Forces are short 12,000 personnel and the navy alone is short 1,000 sailors. The air force flies forty-year old F-18s and is nowhere close to getting a replacement fighter aircraft. The air force has 2 refueling tankers. I hope we take in Ukrainian refugees. That is the least we can do after promising to “firmly stand by Ukraine”. By the way, Canadian trainers left Ukraine last week and we evacuated our embassy in Kiev.

          • Hi Roy, My wife and I spent an amazing 2 years in Ottawa in 2004-6. I was a NATO exchange officer to DND.
            I recall that defence spending there is a very low percentage of GDP and much money went on treating personnel well – pay, pensions, housing, personal kit – so guess there was not much for equipment procurement, which is shackled by a complex and lengthy process.
            Thus I understand those problems you describe.

          • Canada is completely unprepared. We have deployed two frigates to reinforce NATO – I wonder how many more could be put to sea at full readiness given shortages? I fear the answer. We have a “battle group” (c. 500 personnel) in Latvia which is completely exposed at the end of a 4,000 mile supply line.

            In my view, the best thing the West can do for the next few weeks is nothing provocative. Wait to see how things play out; move slowly; impose your sanctions but be very careful on military movements. The Russians are at a high tempo of operations right now, they will be watching events in the West extremely closely and they are not playing games. I think some (too few) Western leaders understand that.

          • You can be proud of committing 2 frigates – that is a lot for a small navy. We too have troops at the end of a supply chain, although less than 4,000 miles – our troops are in Poland and Estonia.

      • The western alliance has been holding relatively strong so far, Japan and Australia have been welcome strong voices with a surprisingly unified EU albeit not all individual EU countries are singing the same public song.

        • Putin’s team made a fool of Joseph Borrel when he first went there.

          EU knows if it flunks this foreign policy test then any hope of the EU defence forces being created or its foreign policy being taken seriously is zero. It is a credibility test.

          No rational person would say that Germany helped the situation with its comments nor that Micron helped with all his grandstanding.

          Ironically Doris actually rose to the occasion and did out Def Sec. That will mainly be because we have a full intel picture of what was going on.

          Equally that is why AUS is so clear as it has a full intel picture via 5 Eyes.

          Japan knows that if the West fails to contain Russia then it will have a neighbourhood problem with its red neighbour messing around.

          • I agree, now that the Olympics are over, it will be interesting to see what mischief China gets up to, as the World is focused on Ukraine?

          • Be interesting to see how effective the NLAWS and Turkish drones are.

            That is quite a bit of firepower to make a mess of the armoured columns.

            It then becomes attritional taking out individual tanks and APC’s all over the place. Then you get to a stage where tank and APC crews feel not very safe in them as they don’t offer real protection?

            This is going to be a very bloody mess. With lots of men and women killed on both sides.

          • Doris was only grandstanding to evade & distract from Partygate. He’s wrapped up in Russian money. We need a leader at this time who’s not an unreliable compulsive liar, whose ambitions are not just power itself but serving the people, not just the money.

      • I’m pretty sure that the former Soviet states that now are the front line in Nato would disagree with most of your statement as they know at first hand what is coming and have lived under the Russian jack boot, the UK on the other hand has spent the last 30 odd years gutting its armed forces to such an extent that all we can do is call for more sanctions. There is a reason why Mr Putin has decided to role the dice now it is because we in the West have never been so weak.
        A once famous American said “if you want peace carry a big stick”
        we no longer have a big stick so must rely on partnerships with the very countries people like yourself like to slag off, Yes their flash to bang is not what it should be but at least when the fuse is lit there will be a bang, with the current state of the UK’s armed forces we would be lucky to get a “pop” after our fuse has been lit.

        • Thank you. If you read my comments with attention you will notice I do not ‘slag off’ anyone. I have German connections and like the country; it’s the leadership in all cases that frustrate. The exact quotation is ‘walk quietly and carry a big stick’. That was pre-Pearl Harbor. Afterwards there was less of the quietly. In fact even with larger forces there is no good case for the west to go to war over Ukraine. Once Putin sensed his chance he was going to take it back. What I find depressing is the lacklustre performance of the Europeans; but just read the comments in some of our own ‘progressive’ media. They can’t all be Russian trolls. But why be surprised? As regular here you know why not.

          • I tend to agree wish some of what you said but I will pull you about the need to protect a sovereign state from being invaded just because it was ones part of an empire. If we do not help stop the madness in the Ukraine who or what is next. if Putin is seen to get away with this lightly then he will be eyeing up other former Soviet states or even trying to for fill Starlin’s dream of Soviet troops controlling the hole of European mainland.

          • No need to pull me anywhere. Thank you for your thoughts. However, the bitter pill is the western powers are not going and never were going to go to war over Ukraine. I gauge his influence now will be to propel many nations into re-armament. Putin’s punishment must be long and slow.

            In haste.

          • I tend to agree with you there, I just hope Putin has not got the same in mind for the West for braking up his precious Soviet Union.

  2. So Putin has crossed the Rubicon. History will put him in the same category as Hitler, Stalin, Saddam etc. The likely course of events is that the big casualties will start when the Russian forces start to occupy the built up areas. Once that happens we will see how much fight the Ukrainians have. When the body bags start flowing back to Russia we will see just how mad Putin now is; will he deploy CBRN attacks?
    We must impose every sanction that is in the book and then some more. That includes deporting Russian citizens and confiscating all wealth. The government must surely now reconsider the defence budget immediately.
     Reply

    • The Ukrainians will have plenty of fight in them. Just hope the Russians don’t take down too much of their Air Defences, C2, and key equipments.

  3. Madness. The losses on both sides will be huge and no one will thank him for filling those body bags with their loved ones.

    The West is weak and have little in the way of muscle. You can only have a chance when you are strong. NATO has a fraction of the military it had in the cold war and now we all will pay that price. God help us all.

    • There is need of a serious rethink across the west about how policticans get financed. There is a lot of evidence both in the US and the UK that Russia has brought off the politicians, and that has meant they have let this invasion happen, either because they agree with their russian puppet masters or because they are scared of Russia making the arrangements public

      Depressing stuff.

      • Since WW2 Britain’s defence capability has been reduced in order to pay for the peace. We all know who contributes to this site how misguide those endless defence cuts have done in reducing our ability to truly defend our country. This current government reduced the Army to around 80,000 when all the time Putin was making his plans. Well, today the UK’s full-time and reserves forces will be served with stand-by orders and the sober realisation that some, if not many, will be in Eastern Europe within weeks, if not days. The only people who can now stop Putin are the Russians themselves.

        • Realistically even if we hadn’t done the massive cuts over the last couple of decades, we wouldn’t have been able to militarily stop this, directly taking on Russia wasnt going to happen, just too risky with nukes in play. The only way was to apply carrot and stick, of offering Russia something and threatening to take away their cash. With so much russian money in the UK we could have shown a real story of global britian and stopped Russia but we have a weak PM who is too distracted with his own issues to stand strong.

          • NATO is not intervening as Ukraine is not a NATO country. Nothing to do with nuclear weapons.

            We have applied sanctions to 3 oligarchs and 4 or 5 Russian banks. More sanctions will follow. But they will not deter Putin.

        • Agreed he needs an uprising internally, im really not sure a large percentage or normal Russians are going to stand for whats happened.

          From figures going about in the news regarding Russia’s actual fighting force army it was stated that around 75% of it was now encircling Ukraine which was circa 150-190 troops. Far number short of the 800,000 often mentioned online, any idea for the different figures?

          • James, we both know Putin is living in the 20th century, and in many ways that makes him a square peg in a round hole. One issue that may have not been fully absorbed by the Kremlin, is just how devastating punishing sanctions will be on the Russian population. History tells us if you starve a nation it will turn on those who hold power. I fear it will take a few months before the Russian economy is truly rocked to its core, and by that time, Ukraine may be history.

          • The Russian people are used to hardship – Putin knows that and has factored it in. He will make their suffering sound heroic and patriotic. They think differently to us.

          • Yep he controls the news media, so I’m sure thry have been building stories for months supporting the attack.

          • Probably the same as the UK, having close to 200k service personal doesn’t mean they are all deployable and you always want to keep some in reserve in case of attack. We probably have close to 20k deployable for long periods of time, maybe a tad higher.

            The US had to do a fair few tricks to keep the 100k odd they had in Iraq/afgan, as they couldn’t sustain it without extending contracts and using the national guard.

          • General Lord Dannatt apparently said a day or so ago that Britain could only deploy a brigade of 3,000 – 5,000 – I don’t know if he was talking about deployment to eastern Europe or in general. My info is second-hand so may be wrong.

        • The army is further reducing to 73,000 regulars.

          Why would our regular and reserve forces be put on stand-by? UK, as a NATO member cannot intervene directly.

          • I believe NATO will mobilise more forces to the Eastern regions and it could already be underway? Boris has announced more troops will be posted in Estonia and I’m sure some will go into Poland too!. That will be only the beginning and as frontline troops are airlifted out of the UK in greater numbers, the TA will need to fill their boots. NATO will be calling on all its members to step up to their commitments and show Putin, real intent to protect its borders.

        • Good point you made. It puts the 2010 defence “review” into context as being one of the most short sighted moves ever. I was trained at the Naval Gunnery school, many moons ago, and the motto of HMS Excellent was Si Vis Pacem Para Bellum. If you desire peace prepare for war. Well the Cold War is back with a vengeance and all we can do is wring our hands.

          • 2010 review was because of the terrible state of the nation’s finances following the banking crisis. Realistically it had to happen. The subsequent cuts however were just short sighted.

      • What worries me ,Trumpski congrats to Putin for occupying the separatist area calling it genius , the Republicans are likely to get in next term , its madness.

      • Really? do you think the lack of military forces and resolve to scare Putin is due to bought politicians?

        So who was the person paid by Putin that made British Army have only 150 obsolete tanks?

        • I watched the news on/off until 11.30 pm today and did not hear that announcement. I wonder if Boris will agree and what forces will be mobilized. I am told that Gen Lord Dannatt said in the HoL that we could only deploy a bde of 3-5,000.

      • Could be the worse mistake NATO has ever made if we don’t stand up to Russian agression & bullying right now. The writing is clearly on the wall. Half measures & prevarication now could prove fatal later. What is NATO for if not preventing Russian aggresion? Ukraine is just the prelude. Let’s not sacrifice her.

        • Just looked him up on the wiki. He was born to Jewish parents and his grandfather was killed by the Nazis during the Holocaust. There’s no way that a pro-Nazi state would let someone with that background hold the reins of power. Just another of Putin’s fantasies.

    • There are a small number of “Nazi” hard right in Ukraine, but that would be like invading Britain because of a few BNP members.

    • He is playing with Russian sentiment about Nazis. In WW2 there were Ukrainian units involved in the holocaust, Ukrainian camp guards, and “trawniki” units.
      There are some small extreme right wing Nazi groups there now, but on a miniscule scale! It is propaganda aimed at Russians.

    • My wife think he looks very bad and may be on drink or drugs or having some sort of mental episode. She is usually correct.

      • He doesn’t look great TBH.

        He is quite puffy in a way that would be constant with either alcohol consumption or the effects of certain types of cancer treatments.

        I would say, at a guess, that the altered mental state was caused by a physical medical issue TBH.

        I don’t think he is totally rational which is a bigger problem than many might think.

      • Hello Graham, There is a book call Syphilis and in it, is explained how the illness in its later stages affects the brain also it goes on name famous people who has had the affliction. Mr Mao of China, Mr Polpot of Cambodia, Mr Starlin of Russia, Mr Bonaparte from France and it is suspected that a Mr Hitler from Germany was also afflicted. I would say that Mr Putin needs a blood test and possibly a cores of penicillin.

        • Thanks Steven. There really is something wrong with him, physically and mentally – and I say that not because I am opposed to his actions.

          • There is defiantly something wrong up top but now we have a nut case in charge of the biggest nuclear arsenal the in the world.
            “If” there is a change at the top of the Russian government as a result of this fiasco in Ukraine we have to kick-start the START talks a again along with limiting the number of Tactical nuks.

            That other nut case has just been to meet with Mr Putin from NK no doubt they will be compering notes.

  5. Sad day for Ukraine and sad day for eastern Europe in general. There will be nervous populations from the Baltic, through Russia and all the way to Taiwan and the SCS.

    Embarrassing day for the West and all those who had advocated cuts, capability gaps, etc etc and have over valued to ‘peace dividend.

    I would expect some to fall on their swords but I suspect they are FFBNW said sword.

    • I completely agree, especially in regards to Germany, and hopefully it will encourage them to start taking defence more seriously.

      • I think Germany would only wake up and smeel the coffee if Russia invaded Poland. (I am not saying that would happen of course).

        • Germany will wake up very quickly when the gas is turned off, because then the coffee will be cold, as will their houses. As the saying goes “ when you have them by the b*lls their hearts and minds will follow. Don’t expect anything but platitudes from that quarter.

          • Germany appears weak. Very low %age spent on Defence. Small armed forces at low readiness. Whilst Macron struts the world stage and has televised talks with Putin, where is the new German Chancellor? Does anyone even know his name?

        • Why point fingers at Germany? It’s not like the UK is doing anything serious about it. We sanctioned a couple of extremely small banks and a couple of minor Russians. Europe sanctioned hundreds.

          The whole west is looking weak over this.

          • It does but it didn’t really target then in any serious way. That is why all the money is allowed to be in London.

            Our 270 sanctioned Russians are from the EU sanctions, we haven’t sanctioned anyone new post brexit, well other than the 5 from yesterday.

          • Yes, rather than squabling amongst our own allies we should fully support Ukraine(not excluding intervention) & welcome anyone who does likewise. Russia threatens unprecedented retalliation on any who do so, what more do we need? The UK & USA are guarantors of Ukraine soveriegnty & integrety, France to some extent too. Aquiesce now & we’re toast.
            None of us are without egg on our faces so let’s stop biting at our allies, put our own hopuses in order & buckle down for the long haul.

    • Very sad day, hypothetically if the military cuts had not happened to the European countries what exactly would be different?

      They still would be saying we wont enter into military conflict as if they do its WW3.

      • European and UK! (Excluding Poland and Baltic States etc who have / are modernising). I suspect the Baltic and East European members would be feeling more comfortable.

        Perhaps Putin may have thought twice..he may have carried on, but there would probably be more voices in the Kremlin advocating caution.

        Perhaps the French led efforts in Sahara would be more effective and not allow defacto Russian forces in.

        Perhaps greater capability would have been available to gift to Ukraine over the past few months..especially air defence.

        As the Turks demonstrated a few years back in Syria and in North Africa, Putin respects strength and people prepared to use it.

    • I remember Lord Carrington resigning as a point of honour after we let our guard down and Argentina invaded the Falklands. It was regarded as old-fashioned and unusual then.

  6. I and others on UKDJ have been saying this for some time now. If you appear to be weak your adversary will take advantage and with China looking on.

    The best we can hope for now is for NATO to send larger reinforcements to the east and greatly increase NATO defence spending to ward off any further incursions into allied partners’ territories which I’m guessing will be his next move after this if we do not put a stop to it.

    I fear the west will come to regret not doing more militarily as we have seen in Syria in the past, too little too late.

    God help Ukraine.

    • Indeed. But we can help Ukraine by doing more right now. Putin’s gambling that we won’t. If we don’t then PRC will be in Taiwan within a few years.

      • Being told by Russia that Ukraine’s airspace and the sea of Azov is closed is exactly what we should have been telling Russia.

        We need to do this now albeit late.

    • Ukraine is not part of Nato. Apart from sanctions and sending weapons, what do you propose? Go to war with a nut with nukes, because he is all in.
      This is no different than Georgia/Ostetia over a decade ago.

      • I propose the immediate increase of defence spending to 3% of GDP. I propose that the extra £16.5bn the government already allocated be spent on measurable increases in capability, not in secret hideyholds the MoD will not be held accountable for. I propose Quin, the MoD procurement minister, is fired immediately and someone prepared to get blood on their size 12s is sent in to “reconfigure” MoD procurement from the ground up.

        Cuts to shipbuilding, crippling the national shipbuilding strategy that government announced as their priority, can’t be allowed to continue.

        When Putin’s next salami slice is due, perhaps we’ll have a more capable military.

  9. Thank-you for the quick article.

    Could you identify TASS as a Russian Government-owned news agency putting out reports from that partisan perspective, and put them in a separate section with similar propraganda setups rather than as on an equal with international agencies?

    I can remember growing up when they were putting out the line from Brezhnev and Andropov.

    Thanks.

  10. Wow Putin sounds like a madman. I fear for Ukraine, unfortunately they are hugely outgunned. In all likelihood their best forces in the east will be encircled and Kiev will fall within days. There is little point in sending more munitions at this point.

    Do the Russian people really fall for all this propaganda? Nazification? Come off it. Ukraine poses no threat to Russia.

    • I agree the situation is horrible, worse for Ukrainians but not a pretty sight for the rest of us. My hope is that this unprovoked attack, unprovoked despite what U.K.D.J.’s resident Moscow troll says, is actually going to become a millstone around that scrawny K.G.B.’s thug’s throat. But is is important that Ukraine fights and this is recorded and independently verified. Eventually, Putin will go and Ukraine will assert its rights. But it’s going to be a very fraught few days to have to stand and watch.

    • “Wow Putin sounds like a madman”.

      Life would be easier if he was. He’s a horrible man but not mad, he’s taking a gamble but its a very calculated one. The West have fallen over ourselves to say we won’t put boots on the ground (I’m glad of that by the way) and will impose sanctions. He knows this and can either let his forces press on steam rolling its way through Ukraine or tell them to stop at any time if he thinks he’s pushed things too far. If, as it seems, he’s been planning this for a while, he’ll have taken measures to minimise The West’s sanctions, at least on a personal level.

      • I agree. He will probably also have anticipated the new wave of sanctions, NATO reinforcements in Eastern Europe, and in the long run increased NATO country defence spending and possibly even Finland joining NATO. And so have planned for that. We have been playing according to Putin’s game the last 10+ years. We need to get the initiative.

    • I can believe it , I stated on here a few weeks back that I read a news article that Putin’s super yacht had left its homeport in Germany that confirmed it for me.

  12. Please can the next tranche of sanctions;

    1. Bring in a NATO safe haven in Western Ukraine. This area was once Poland & Slovakia, so even using Putin’s twisted version of history, these countries, members of NATO have a right to protect that land. We could save a small square, Lvov/Lviv, Ternopil,Cernivci, if NATO acts fast. Keeping a free Ukraine, no matter how small, is vital. People in East Berlin could see how much better life was in West Berlin. That helped bring down the wall.
    2. If Putin is counting on Xi for money, then make China pay a price for its support. China puts higher tariffs on British goods than we put on Chinese goods. Equalise the tariffs. Use the money 4 ways. Pay a bit off UK national debt. Fill some of the holes in UK defences. Reshore industry (we cannot pay the welfare state in future decades unless we do), Build energy infrastructure(Severn & Wash barriers would provide cheap, renewable, reliable energy for 150 years, buy a couple of S Korean LNG carrier ships to bring in gas from around the world, fully fund RR small modular reactors). Create a sovereign wealth fund to do it.
    3. 3. Copy Trump in Iran & ban the sale of Western Airliners to Russian Airlines.
    4. Start reading McMafia by Misha Glenny, Moneyland by Oliver Bullough, The Great Tax Robbery by Richard Brooks. These have pointed out how loopholes are used by dodgy wealthy types. Those loopholes are long known, but because wealthy Brits use them too (not just Tories, Labour, LibDems & others are in on it too.)

    • Agreed. We should be looking carefully with urgency how to disentagle from reliance on Chinese manufacturing. “Great tax robbery” etc-Our wealthy are a major fifth column headache, as while there’s an honest lot who say “tax us more”, the rest will be perfectly happy to pander to any authoratarian tyrant so long as they’re they’re allowed to just carry on making billions & living in luxury, irrespective of the consequences for the rest of us.

  13. The result of years of malaise from the West echoing events of the 1930’s.

    Will..when will the West act in kind (rhetorical).

  14. Morning, I find it very interesting how across social media and certain blogs , how so many posters are defending Moscow and blaming the West, be it the US, NATO or the EU. As usual the jundies (Who never seem to want to migrate to Russia) are defending Moscow and openily berate the West.

    Its as if misinformation is the name of the game and the ethical latte drinkers out there are than happy to drink to that. Tell you what thou, it would be prudent to keep an eye on China as it has form for carrying out military adventures when the world is looking elsewhere
    Invasion of Tibet took place during the Korean war
    Invasion of India resulting in the Sino Indian war took place 4 days into the Cuban missile crisis
    The Sino-Soviet border conflict of 1969 which took place a week after Tet 1969 kicked off in Vietnam.
    The Sino-Vietnamese War of 1979 which took place during the Iranian revolution
    The Third Taiwan Strait Crisis which saw China start lobbing missiles in Taiwans direction took place days after the Srebrenica massacre

    • Totally agree, had lots of chats in the recent days with friends and family alike defending Russia’s position on this which I find baffling.

      Same story from all, Russia is under threat and has a right to defend itself. Defend yes I agree but who on earth would launch an invasion into Russian territory it would be utter suicide for anyone involved and would lead to a potential world ending event very quickly after.

      Russia does not have a threat of invasion!

    • I dont think even Russian trolls with all their usual BS preying on the simple minded individual can explain away this one not in the UK anyway, Trumpski though on the other hand lol.

    • It’s just appalling, deeply saddening and disturbing in equal measures.

      Another bloody pint sized lunatic has started a European War, he’s proven himself as deeply mentally unstable in my opinion.

      I hope Ukraine fights back hard, the US and UK have given material Military support and it’s time to put this kit to its intended use.

      We need to provide weapon systems to Ukraine and ISTAR support for the Ukraine, such support will give them a good fighting chance.

      It’s now about defence in depth and counter attacks, plus insurgency in occupied regions.

      We need to assemble a defensive NATO Armoured Division in Poland and prepare for general mobilisation, god forbid we might just have to…..

      I strongly suggest Georgia and Finland lobby to join NATO without delay.

      Georgia will be next, Finland is another possibility on the invasion list

      We had better stop the rot and increase defence spending without any further delay.

        • I’m not sure Finland feels safe with Russia’s happiness. Surely we are now heavily in the realms of geo politics, we should oppose Russia where we can. And if Finland freely joining NATO is something Russia doesn’t want then it is something we should allow or do. Also add Sweden and Moldova to the list.

    • Don’t tend to follow social media, but is this people you know or likely disinformation “dezinformatsiya” campaigns using twitter/facebook etc bots…

    • The Olympics are over and the World is firmly focused on what is happening in Ukraine. I’d agree, that this would be a perfect opportunity for China to get up to some mischief.

    • It’s interesting that many of the anti-mask/ anti-lockdown/ anti-vaccine brigade on social media are defending Putin and blaming this all on NATO. It’s confirmed my suspicions of who was funding them all along.

  15. Does anyone know, will the west start cyber attacks on Russian infrastructure? We know it is common practice for Russia to commence those type of on anyone, is it now a form of accepted shadow warfare?

      • I’m hoping we go on the offensive, surely that is something we can do and deny/get away with? Cyber Attack Russian banks, comms, media, power, defense sites, defense industry and so on.

      • It would be very worrying if Russia has done a combined agreement with the likes of Iran and NK that they will now see an opportunity in the cyber domain to step up at the same time and also attack.

        • Let’s hope our intelligence services have picked up any such chatter between these nations. We will unleash massive sanctions against Russia, but they will respond. I have already seen a message from Lloyd’s bank saying they have had their cyber defensive systems on high alert for the last few weeks.

  16. Exactly the fear is a Nuclear war, how long do you anticipate a conventional war to last if the US and EU send in troops and equipment to fight?

    • 24 hours and then what? You can’t defeat Russia just by defeating their Forces in Ukraine. The only choice then is invasion and we all know what that will bring.

      Severe Economic sanctions are the only way to defeat that man from within.

      • I completely get your point but id rather be frustrated than have everything and everyone i know vapourised or worse. The stakes here are just too high.

      • Iraq and Syria didnt have the worlds largest stockpile of nuclear weapons capable of reaching every corner of the planet thats the justification!

      • When has that worked? More likely they’ll just make him dig in & go for broke. Just like Japan did before Pearl harbour. I think we’re kidding ourselves if we think sanctions will achieve much. MAD is useless if we back down when challanged. Putin is counting on us backing down. The only spanner we can put in his plans is not backing down & going toe to toe.

        • I don’t understand. You want to risk a nuclear exchange for a country that we don’t have a defence commitment to? It may be illegal and naked aggression but the red line is the NATO border not the Ukranian one.

          • Hi BigH1979, welcome to the UKDJ.
            It’s basic humanity. It’s our obigation as a guarantor of Ukraine’s independence. We applauded the Euromaiden refusal to have a rigged election foisted on them by a Russian demagogue, did everything we could to encourage them towards democracy & freedom, yet when Russia invades illegally(again) covered by a host of lies, violating their own obligations we hold our noses even though it is going to encpourage Putin & Xi to be aggressively pursuing tyranical neo-Imperial aggression, especially against newer NATO members in Eastern Europe.

            The UK & USA have an obligation here. Yes it’s risky, wars are like that, but bullies only get stronger until stopped. Putin is the one threatening nuclear war if anyone defies him even before anyone has declared war on him. 90% of Ukrainians voted for independance, so it’s just wrong & “I’m alright Jack”-I’m in an alliance-to leave them to be overrun by the real Nazis(Putins criminal gang). It is a serious blunder.

            It just sends the message that no other friendly country can trust us, if you’re not in NATO you’re disposable. Any tyrant with nukes can do whatever they can get away with.
            If China & Russia go down this road unchecked then the cosy world order will collapse anyway & freedom eventually become extinct. All each of us has ever posted online will be there for any dictator to see & come for us. Most the of the big money will be quite happy to fawn after any tyrant just to be allowed to continue making money, regardless of consequences.

            Will we stand off with just harsh words, a few sanctions, some weaponry supplied, while a nation of nearly 50 million become subject to tyranny that allegedly already has a kill list, on European soil? MAD is supposed to stop this sort of thing from happening, not surrender up nations.

    • Why do you say ‘the EU’? They are not a comabt organisation.
      I think you mean NATO. NATO has no remit to directly intervene as Ukraine is not a NATO country.

      • I say EU as its a shorter way of typing the potential European countries which may or may not want to get involved.

        Currently the EU organisation as such is representing the union regarding sanctions etc for Russia doing whats its done hence I just said EU.

        • James, I think you must be an American? EU countries are probably coordinating their efforts under EU management on sanctions – but I doubt they are planning any military response.

  17. Shit just got real. 😱

    I doubt this comes as a massive surprise to anybody. Time to break out the popcorn and see where this ends guys/comrades*.

    *delete as appropriate.

    • 😂😂😂🤣, hedging our bets are we Andy… Reminds me of an old Alexei Sayle joke…

      “I used to own a house in a sleepy Brittany village and every Christmas the Germans would donate a Christmas tree in grateful thanks for collaborating during WW2”

  19. I fear its a free for all now. China next into Taiwan? North Korea into the South. 20000 us troops in South Korea will not stop rocket man. What have we done? Nothing except shout at a bully over the fence.

    • Don’t underestimate the South Koreans and Taiwanese…they are trained and equipped for war in a serious manner. They never took their guard down.

    • Fortunately Asia hasn’t fallen into the disarmament folly we Europeans have & have been strengthening their forces for some time already.

      If we don’t stand united in Europe we will fall divided, a gift to Russia & China.

  20. Over analysing a situation is certainly a feature of some western countries. We should intervene. See what the bully does and how far he is prepared to go. NATO is for nought, if its not willing to use the force at its disposal.

      • Yeah I recall similar excuses were used in 1938/39. We have no remit, it’s not our business. I don’t need ‘Article 5’ to justify the defence of a democratic nation from a thug. Especially one on our proverbial european door step.

        • It is true that the Munich Agreement formalised accepting Hitler’s occupation of the Sudetenland as his ‘last territorial claim in Europe’, and we did nothing to stop him later seizing Czechoslovakia as a whole, but Chamberlain did declare war on Germany in Sep 1939.
          We of course are not militarily strong enough today to unilaterally take on a bully – Russia – hence the need to work as a collective, NATO.

      • USA & UK are treaty guarantors of Ukraine’s integrety, France to a lesser extent. So we have legal cause & justification to deploy in support of Ukraine. This sort of thing will just happen more often & widely if we back off now. Putin & Xi are counting on it.
        We’ve put peace in jeopardy by dis-arming as far as we have.

        • I think you are talking about the Budapest agreement ie
          Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances
          which is not as strong as a Treaty, signed by John Major in 1994.
          It is badly worded and could read as if US/UK/Russia only go to the aid of Ukraine if she is attatacked by nuclear weapons (launched by someone!).

  21. Putins threat this morning that if anyone interfered from the outside”..you will face consequences greater than you have ever felt in history” confirms that the man is unhinged. Clearly his threat is to use Nukes but he seems to forget or not care that MAD has two sides-if he does deploy Nukes then the retaliation from the West will be in equal measure. As we speak I am sure the Nuclear armed Western Nations-the USA,UK and France are on high alert and at maximum deployment.

    • What absolute arrogance and delusion coming out of Putin’s mouth. If only the Russian people where also free from all of this! Does he not realise the West is also nuclear armed? Strength and resolve to the Ukrainian people! Hope they can get the upper hand in defending their turf and right to exist independently of Russia! I bet the West will be watching Kaliningrad too, sitting quietly there plus any sneaky sub activities. 🇭🇲🇬🇧🇺🇦

    • I believe he mentioned nuclear consequences after the 6 hour in person meeting with Macron a few weeks back just after he accused him of wasting 6 hours of his time.

  22. What utter madness.

    Support for increased defence spending will grow I’m sure. But at the cost of thousands of lives, huge economic damage and the end of Western Europes perceived safety from war. All so that Putin can stare at his portrait of Tsar Nicholas I and feel like a man.

    History will not look favourably upon him.

    • Otto van Bismark made a statement in the 19th century Never trust a Russian !!!!
      Russians dont even trust Russians !!! How true Mike

  23. Nuts. Friggin psycho! Who’s next? Bielorussia and Moldova?
    His speech last night just shows the disconnect. Russia is the victim of Nazi Ukraine? when it is Russia invading Ukraine! And all the whataboutism in his speech is just weak and reeks of desperation and lack of arguments.
    Anyway my condolences to Ukraine.
    This will be a pyrrhic victory since Nato’s east flank will be fortified, Finland and Sweden may be swayed to join, meanwhile Russia’s economy will continue to decline and Russia will join the exclusive club of Iran and N. Korea.

    • This is what I dont understand what can he realistically gain long term?

      Its no doubt going to encourage other countries to join Nato and the Russian economy potentially is going to end up in the dark ages whilst selling assets at rock bottom prices to China to survive.

  24. Truly despicable, the world we once new is over surely now the government must realise 2% defence budget is no longer applicable.

  25. Two things that are obvious but I would like to say.
    One is that I feel so sorry for all the Ukranians, men women and worst of all the children, who are having their future destroyed by a KGB thug with an inferiority complex. God Knows where are going to find a haven.
    Secondly, if ever the West needed a wake up call and our own politicians needed a kick up the backside this is surely it. Assume the worst from Russia and take note of China watching in the wings and start building NOW, not in five years or ten…NOW.

  26. I’m expecting business as usual in the West as far as military funding goes.
    Unless the equipment sent to Ukraine at the last minute turns out to have an impact, the takeaway from all this will be that sanctions are the only tool we have.
    However if the equipment does make an impact then maybe we’ll see military industrial capacity, or at least boatload of spares, as a tool worth keeping in the box.

    Good luck Ukraine.

  27. Putin’s statement is pure old style Soviet propaganda speak. What he means by self determination is the incorporation of Ukraine into the Russian empire.

  28. Can someone, anyone call out Johnson, May, Clegg, Cameron, Brown, Blair, and Major on live TV to the PMs face for the last 30 years of cuts? I don’t think many of the public are aware of the scale of them.
    They should be listed, squadron numbers, ship numbers, personnel numbers, artillery numbers, and on and on.
    No more pre screened questions for HMG to weasl out of. HMG need embarrassing right now to force defence spending up properly with uplifts in numbers to match.

    Putin you demented shite.

    • Hi Daniele,

      I tell anyone who will listen about the cuts to the UK forces. Most are shocked and surprised.

      I and my wife are watching the BBC News Channel and Estonia has activated Article 4 – Consultation clause.

      NATO needs to react and quickly.

      4% GDP defence spending across NATO is an absolute minimum.

      This will go global unless we react with considerable resolve.

      NOTHING from UK politicians..! Boris is speaking this afternoon so much for having an actionable plan ready to go!

      Where is the leadership?

      This is easily the most dangerous time I have lived through and certainly the most dangerous moment since the Cuban Crisis.

      Cheers CR

    • No point in name calling, we all know he has gone bonkers, I think the army expression is Full Tonto?
      Your point about calling out the politicians is well made, I particularly liked the Defence Committee saying in December that we need a bigger Navy, when all of them were in Parliament when the “review” took the middle not just out of the Navy but the RAF and the Army as well. Cue the sound of chickens roosting.

      • There isn’t Nick, and your right. But allow me to show my irritation and frustration, and dare I say fear for the future as a result of all this though, with Putin in my mind responsible.

    • In spite of the cuts, Nato dwarfs Russia both in capability and spending. Ironically the situation of the Cold War has reversed with the West’s military capability deterred by Russia’s nuclear weapons.

    • Ah, the good old “peace dividend”, I’m reminded of a Mel Brook’s satire movie, where in a musical scene, Hitler is mocked as he sings:
      “Give me some peace. All I want is a little peace! A little piece of Austria, a little piece of France ,a little piece of Poland and a little piece of Russia, by chance”

  29. Plenty of people saying that the west can`t intervene as Ukraine is neither a member of NATO or the EU.
    Neither was Kuwait. Not a NATO operation admittedly but the international community turned up with a big hairy fist soon enough.

    • Iraq did not have the nuclear option. It changes things dramatically when a madman is at the helm.
      NATO needs to rearm rapidly but defend NATO’s eastern border.
      Ukraine needs to be supplied as much as possible but the wests military needs to stay the hell out if it.
      IF Putin attacks NATO nations then yes the gloves are off and we’re all screwed.

      • Hi Daniele, we can also expand NATO border eastwards, conduct our own cyber operations against Russian everything, stir up trouble where ever there are Russian deployed troops through proxy war (Possible Syria). The last maybe a step too far, but what I’m driving at is we can do more then just prepare defenses.

        • I’d hold firm where NATO is.
          That is US escalating and Russia will respond.
          This needs cooling.
          Ukraine is on its own.
          As for the wider Grey Zone that has been underway for some time.

          • Ukraine is on its own. Saddens me….. but it is true. But I truly feel for the Ukrainian people, because what have they actually done wrong. In my mind nothing. They have a freely elected government, they have been charting their own course in the world, yet they are attacked because some idiot feels Ukraine is to close to the west and should be part of Russia. What a tyrant Putin is.

    • And we annihilated the huge Iraq Army and Air Force in less than 2 months. Far to many cuts over the last 30 year’s, but the USA still has by far the most capable and devastating military force on the planet. This is a very complicated situation.God help the people of the Ukraine. And all our thoughts are with the members of our Armed Force’s deployed overseas. 🇬🇧

    • But the USA & UK are guarantors of Ukraine under the treaty that saw them dismantle their nukes. So hiding behind NATO membership, or not, does not hold water.

  31. Russia for First Time Holds More Gold Than U.S. Dollars in $583 Billion Reserves

    https://www.bloombergquint.com/global-economics/russia-s-583-billion-reserves-now-hold-more-gold-than-dollars#:~:text=Russia%20spent%20more%20than%20%2440,Russia%20after%20oil%20prices%20crashed.

    “Feb 24 (Reuters) – Gold prices jumped more than 2% on Thursday to their highest in over a year and palladium extended a rally as Russia launched an all-out invasion of Ukraine after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation.”

    https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/gold-rises-escalating-ukraine-crisis-spurs-safe-haven-bids-2022-02-24/#:~:text=Feb%2024%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Gold,called%20a%20special%20military%20operation.

  32. China: That NATO guy has been taking the piss out of you.
    Russia: Yeah right…i can’t stand that knobhead. What do you think i should do?
    China: Uckin’ knock him out i reckon. I’ll stand over here….

    • China should face increased tariffs for supporting Putin. Confusion institutes (pro CCP) in Western universities should be shut down.

  33. I think it’s going to end with the Ukrainians taking a leaf out of the taliban play book. Car bombs and suicide bombs. Worked well against the us and brits in Afghanistan.

    Use it against Russian troops and maybe set some bombs off in Moscow. Might make them think twice.

      • Moskow has no scruples & would not care how many civillians get killed as collateral damage/reprisals for countering guerilla resistance. Nazi is as Nazi does. Better to intervene & defeat Putin on Ukraine soil than stand off until he’s ready to send “peacekeepers” elsewhere.
        We’re out of easy options.

  34. 30 years of so called peace dividend and this is the result. NATO is too weak and in the medium long term the best thing it can do is to rebuild Europe’s defences. The UK should accelerate the build up of the RN as its main contribution to that effort, because as I have said before the critical battle for the West will be the Third Battle of the Atlantic. Lose that and the West is lost.

    The RAF will need to be able to effectively defend the UK mainland from attack and ensure the air bridge into Europe. It will also need to be able to support a British Army in Europe.

    Any British ground forces deployable into Europe will likely modest compared to say Poland, Germany and France, but would nevertheless be significant and would need to be well equipped and capable.

    As many on here will know we are a very long way from having anything like this capability, even the USN only has about 90 escorts, for example…

    Stiff sanctions need to be introduced and quickly, but NATO needs to respond with a real rebuilding of its miliatry capability – urgently. This will require a doubling of defence budgets at least so dire is the situation – and few in the West realise how weak and vulnerable we are!

    You want peace, prepare for war!

    CR

      • And buying more P8 MPA for the RAF. I’d also put AShM on Typhoons.

        Cancel cuts to the British Army.

        I’d also put the UK defence industrial base on notice for an urgent rearmement programme. Fat Chance, but it is needed.

        CR

        • We don’t have any AShMs to put on them. A disgraceful situation but there’s plenty of them to choose from. If there was ever a plan to knobble our defences so they were too weak & inneffective, would it look much different than where we are now?

          • Marte ER is going on Qatar Typhoon, so it is integrated already. Buy a few Marte ER for RAF Typhoon, even if it is only for one squadron.

    • Agreed. Weakness & vaccilation is what Putin expects from us. Being firm, resolute & surprising him is the only way to stem Putin & Xi’s ambitions.
      The free world is at stake.

    • Hi Paul,

      I think this will go a similar way to Poland in ’39, sadly. The Ukrainian conventional force are too heavily out numbers, especially now that Belarus has reportedly said they will join in!

      The most likely outlcome over the next couple of weeks is that Russian force will overrun the country, but will then face resistance from light, irregular forces. Ukraine’s best way forward is asymmetric warfare.

      I really feel for the Ukrainian people.

      CR

        • Yes. I’m afraid so James.

          You do not launch a three pronged attack from such widely spread fronts. This is all out invasion an dI am afraid that the Ukraine will lose the conventional war.

          Their best chance is asymmetric warfare. Ukraine is in trouble and I feel for Ukrainians every where.

          CR

        • From the various news reports, the invasion is widespread from the north all the way round to the Black Sea port of Odessa. Russia may stop when they reach the Dnieper River and move up north from the Black Sea and Sea of Azov coasts. They will most likely besiege Kiev (Kyiv) to try and remove the Government. But if their forces have momentum, they will probably keep going.

          They will have only a few weeks to do this in though. From the middle to the end of March, the thaw will start to set in. This will mean heavy vehicles will have to predominantly use the roads. Which will slow down the widespread invasion. But it will also make them easier to ambush.

      • Sadly I agree. Ukraine is a large mostly flat area with a long border with Russian controlled lands. Pretty much indefensible. Ukraine has no defence against Russian missile attacks. Russia will quickly assert air dominance. The most likely outcome is a defensible rump Ukraine next to Poland from where they can be supplied. Ironically a mirror image of Donbas. If Ukrainian forces decide to slug it out in the streets civilian casualties will be terrible. Best place to use the NLAWS?
        Jens Stoltenberg is on TV telling everyone ‘we told you so’. No kidding.

      • So we were; but we are where we are. Lots of posts about sanctions, increases in defence budgets. Agree with them all but its too late. Just watched half a dozen helicopters over Kyiv on TV. Special forces going for the government / TV stations?

  37. NATO has agreed to activate its ‘defence plans’, whatever that means on the ground..?

    Jens Stoltenberg making statement at the moment…

    CR

    • Watching it. There are contingencies for all eventualities.
      So ARRC maybe, JEF?
      One journo made a boob with her question “Will NATO form a coalition against Hitl….against Putin!?”

      • Hi Deniele,

        I saw that ‘mistake’. I got the impression it was quite possibly a deliberate and a clever one.

        ARRC and JEF are quite likely I would say, but the key thing is that the Generals now have direct control over some NATO forces. This is a big step, one that is often misunderstood and underestimated in terms of the political implications. Basically western politicians have already started to hand decision making power over to the Generals all be it within tight limits. It is a small but important step towards mobilisation of regular forces if not reservists.

        If Eastern European NATO members start to call up reservists as a result of any real or percieved threat to themselves then I would be very worried about how Putin would respond. The Baltic states are very vulnerable and I would think that Putin sees them as part of a rebuilt Russian empire. NATO members have been wrong footed and will be scrambling to catch up.

        Rearmament is now the only sensible way forward, but I do not see the political leadership. Our politicians are not up to it frankly. Hopefullty someone will step up and emerge as a serious and capable ‘leader’…

        CR

  38. Not a political point.

    When Johnson comes to Parliament this afternoon he better come armed with proper sanctions or he should go.

    Proper sanctions mean:
    Confiscate all Russian money and property in the UK’s jurisdiction.
    Deport all Russian nationals from the UK (other than resistance leaders).
    End all banking rights.
    End all Russian civil flight access to UK airspace.
    Withdraw all UK investments in Russia.
    Actively go after all Putin’s oligarchs we can get hold of, including arrest.

    After that he now needs to have a military aid package for Ukraine AND an immediate emergency boost to UK defence spending. This all now has to be done.

    • I’m not clear how you “withdraw” an investment from Russia.

      If say a share in a factory, how do you bring that back?

      Is BP still invested in Rosneft, or has that gone?

      And the “deport all nationals” is a bit rabid. What about eg someone married to a UK National who is say a schoolteacher?

      • War is never pleasant; they started it. If lots of Russian nationals are returned to sender perhaps they will take the message with them. Oh and BP need to get their £20B out of the Russian state.

        • @Rob You rather miss my point, perhaps. Or perhaps I am not being precise.

          Many here (and elsewhere in Europe) are opponents of Putin, and targets of his regime, and refugees, and ordinary people living here, whilst not being “resistance leaders”. Intelligence and precision required on that one.

          As I say, I am not clear on the BP / Rosneft status. Can you clarify?

  39. The West is not weak militarily and Russia is not the USSR. Nato Dwarfs Russia, the only card that Russia holds over Nato is the threat of nuclear war.

    What the West lacks is leadership.We have the UK pulling away from Europe. On top of this not so long ago the US was talking about pulling out of NATO. According to some reports, some of the divisions were encouraged by Russian meddling and interference.

    I have no doubt that if Nato put a sizeable number of forces into Ukraine two weeks ago, Russia would have been deterred and the threat to Ukraine’s independence would have passed.

    There are two questions now for the West. What can they do to help Ukraine and what can they do to comprehensively deter Russia from any further aggression.

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