Defence Secretary John Healey told MPs that Russia’s forces are paying a severe price for minimal progress on the battlefield, citing the latest assessment from UK defence intelligence.
Updating the Commons on 1 September, Healey said: “On the battlefield, intense fighting continues along the frontline. While Russian military activity has reduced in the Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts, as Russian ground forces relocate elements of those forces, over the past two weeks, they have advanced in the northern Donetsk region. Pokrovsk remains Russia’s focus and its forces are using a variety of methods to infiltrate Ukrainian positions, but Putin continues to make only minor territorial gains, at a huge cost.”
According to defence intelligence, Healey told the House, at the current rate it would take Russia “another 4.4 years to seize the Donbas, at a cost of almost 2 million more Russian casualties.” He also highlighted the scale of Moscow’s escalating drone campaign, noting that “in July, Russia launched approximately 6,200 one-way attack drones into Ukraine, another monthly record. In one night alone, over this weekend, Russia launched nearly 540 drones and 45 missiles.”
The Defence Secretary argued that Russia’s ability to sustain its invasion was being undermined by mounting military and economic strain. “While President Putin likes to project strength, he is now weaker than ever,” he said. “Since Putin launched his illegal invasion, he has not achieved any of his strategic aims. He has lost more than 10,000 tanks and armoured vehicles, and his Black Sea fleet has been humiliated. He is forced to rely on states such as Iran for drones, North Korea for frontline troops and China for technology and components.”
Healey added that Russia was devoting 40 per cent of its government spending to the war, with interest rates at 18 per cent and inflation at 9 per cent. By contrast, he pointed to the resilience of Ukraine and the strengthening of NATO. “Putin now faces a bigger NATO—32 nations strong, with an agreement to raise national spending on security to 5% by 2035—and a Ukraine that is more determined than ever to control its own future. A secure Europe needs a strong, sovereign Ukraine, and we in the UK will stand with Ukraine for as long as it takes.”
Meanwhile in the UK the cuts continue and no orders in sight, even the Jam seems to be stuck in a Jam.
Watching Putin’s body language in China it was clear that Vladimir is Xi Jinging’s lap dog. Putin has brought Russia to the status of vassal state. To be honest, I feel sorry for the proud Russian people. Russia is Christian nation; where is their self respect? What on earth is their leader Putin doing cavorting with likes of Kim Jong Un?
I keep hearing this but the optics say different. Putin doesn’t care how many Russian soldiers die or how many tanks and vehicles he loses and replaces and he’ll drag this war on forever to save face. In a way it gives him credibility amongst CRINK to be engaged in a hot war. He won’t come to the table unless he gets what he wants and Ukraine will need some serious intervention to overcome him. Luckily dictators don’t last for ever.
What optics? Even the most even handed commentators are reporting massive casualties for very little gains on the battlefield!
Ukraine are torching the oil refineries nightly which at the latest estimates say have cut capacity by 20%, the rail network is struggling and the economy is tanking!
Not saying it’s good for Ukraine but the grief is not all one way👍
I don’t know about you but all ive seen on the mainstream news for the last week is Kyiv getting pounded by missiles and drones. Im not saying that’s the full story but if you stopped Joe Public on the street today and asked him i’d doubt he’d say that he thought that Russia were looking particularly weak in the news.
Good job we don’t have to rely on MSM ‘defence experts’ then isn’t it?
Understood , but we can’t measure success in this war by the number of Russian casualties and wrecked equipment.
Russia has more and is sending more, Attritional warfare ( including absorbing losses) appears to be Russias strength.
For me there would be 2 indicators that Russia is starting to lose:
1) They no longer have enough heavy ordinance / missiles/ drones/bombs to fire at UKR en masse.
2) UKR starts taking back LARGE areas currently occupied by Russia forces.
I don’t see either happen right now, I ts possible (1) might happen in a year or so , but again we have to take into account UKR is taking losses every day too.
Most likely scenario is a stalemate.
Russia’s fortunes may have benefited from the recent meetings and military parade in China. Whether the outcome results in tangible improvements in supplies, the mere fact that a compact has been reinforced will be enough. Sadly for Ukraine, this means a continuation of the conflict as Putin will feel empowered to fight on, knowing there’s huge support for his objectives. As for assets, the resupply chain may have just been strengthened through guarantees?
If Russia is indeed devoting some 40% of government spending to the military then that would equate to about 15% of (nominal, USD) GDP- based on Russian government expenditure being ca. 38% of GDP according to multiple sources. This is comparable to Soviet spending levels in the mid-80s. In USD terms it would amount to $326 billion per year. Most sources seem to be quoting figures nearer $150 billion, though this presumably doesn’t account for indirect spending on the military. Drastically understating actual military expenditure in official figures was also a Soviet-era practice. The economic strain of sustaining expenditure at those levels was likely a contributing factor in the collapse of Soviet Union, but it took several years to reach that point.
Russia would say the same about us. They’d say we’re small, lacking in mass and depth with an inability to regenerate.
If Russia is so weak why doesn’t Ukraine seemingly not have the means to push them back significantly and out of their territory!? Instead of firing more expensive weaponry over the fence concentrate their fire on these buggers in their back (front) garden! Easy to say from our couches but Russian forces need to be put on the back foot and not get even more momentum with their plans to regenerate its army, expand tank numbers and keep pushing forward. More strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦 🇦🇺
The most effective way to defeat an invasion force is to destroy its lines of communication. It can’t continue to fight if it can’t sustain a supply of food, fuel, spare parts and ammunition (and- given Russia’s Operating Concept- replacement cannon fodder).
Good for UKR they have inflicted a lot of damage on Russia armed forces.
However we have to temper this with the fact that Russia is still has combat units they are sending forward, they are still firing and advancing.
They may be tactically poor on the battlefield , but what they appear to be good at is keeping the war going with continuous replenishment of equipment, ammo and troops, they are good surviving attritional losses.
The day I see that they have no more artillery, misssles or bombs to lob at UKR is the day I will be convinced they are finished as a threat to anyone.
At the rate of ‘advance’ it will take the orcs 4-5 yrs just to take Donbas and the other oblasts they claim (MOD assessments)! Ukraine is going after the means for Russia to sustain this war with their attacks on oil,railways and war manufacturing factories.
There are reliable podcasts out there that have real experts on not MSM ‘experts who really don’t know one end of a gun from the other!
Why do you assume MSN ? main stream media no longer reports anything useful about UKR, and if they do, it’s isolated incidents here and there.
Three sites I regularly watch for war updates (and there are plenty more):
“Reporting from Ukraine” (can be a bit too optimistic at times)
“Denys Davydov” (Denys tells it as it is, and is honest about bad news from the front)
“ISW” – (can be a bit slow on updating frontline news)
Jake Broe,warthog defence,Ukraine matters,Ukrahian news tv, we can go on cant we👍😀