Russian forces are facing their highest daily casualty rates since the start of the war in Ukraine, yet they continue to make slow tactical advances in key regions, according to a senior NATO official.
Speaking ahead of the NATO Defence Ministers meeting in Brussels, the official outlined Russia’s heavy losses on the battlefield and the incremental progress being made despite those challenges.
In September 2024, Russian forces recorded an average of 1,271 casualties per day, the highest since the start of the conflict. This surge in losses, surpassing the previous record set in May 2024, is attributed to expanded combat zones in Kharkiv and Kursk and the high-density front lines where fierce fighting is ongoing.
“Average daily Russian casualty rates of killed and wounded reached a new monthly high in September,” the official said, attributing this to the intensification of combat across eastern Ukraine and continued Ukrainian resistance.
Despite these losses, the official noted that Russian forces are still making slow tactical advances, particularly in the eastern regions. However, these gains are limited by a range of issues, including high attrition rates, logistical challenges, and officer shortages.
“Russia continues to make small but steady tactical advances in the East, though they have been limited by high attrition rates and other operational difficulties,” the official explained.
Russian Munitions Production Under Pressure
One key factor that has enabled Russia to sustain its slow advances is its production of munitions. According to the NATO official, Russia is currently producing around 250,000 munitions per month, amounting to approximately 3 million per year.
This figure is bolstered by additional supplies from countries such as North Korea and Iran.
“Russia is producing about 250,000 munitions per month, and this is being supplemented by significant shipments from North Korea and Iran,” the official noted. North Korea, for instance, has reportedly sent at least 6,700 containers of ammunition to support Russia’s war effort, while Iran has provided at least 300,000 artillery shells.
Despite these efforts, the official highlighted that Russia still faces challenges in sustaining large-scale offensive operations. “While Russia maintains a three-to-one superiority in artillery fire on the front lines, they still lack the necessary maneuver units and munitions for a major offensive,” the official stated.
Attrition Takes Its Toll
The NATO official also mentioned that Russia’s approach is one of attrition, relying on overwhelming Ukrainian defensive positions with massed forces rather than precision strikes or high-tech weaponry. However, even with its ability to produce large quantities of munitions, Russia’s forces are increasingly strained by the demands of the conflict.
“Russia’s high munitions production rate and the aid it receives from its allies allow it to continue its operations, but this comes at a significant cost to its long-term military capabilities,” the official added.
While Russia continues to make small gains, the official suggested that these advances are unlikely to lead to a decisive breakthrough in the near future, given the resilience of Ukrainian forces and the continued flow of Western military aid to Ukraine.
Great to see some clear info coming through regarding russian munitions manufacturing capabilities and how this subsequently frames the conflict. Obviously exact numbers of western 155mm shell production is somewhat clouded, but off the top of my head i remember the intent being to supply Ukraine 1million shells from the EU in a year and to produce 1 million shells a year in the usa. Just reading up on this a bit more, i now see the new intent is the eu to expand its production capacity to 1.4million 155mm shells by the end of 2024 and for usa to… Read more »
Is that 6000 per day just 155mm ? Ukraine are still using 152mm and 122mm. Interestedly there been a report in the last month that Russia are unhappy that Indian manufactured shells are being used by Ukraine
yes, from the source i read, but newspaper hacks are notoriously useless with military stuff, so i would take it all with a big pinch of salt
I think it came from Forbes and was then further verified by Jane’s and OSINT sources so pretty reliable. This is nothing new, lots of 3rd party nations not directly allied to either Ukraine or Russia have been selling munitions to whoever was prepared to pay the highest price.
I’d read that as well, seems India will do what is best for India, with utter disregard for any alliances or reported friendships. India will sell their produce to whoever is prepared to pay. In this case Ukraine via western backed governments monetary donations and direct purchase from funds like the EU’s Ukraine support fund.
Of course Russia could try to outbid the Western donors and purchase these munitions themselves, leading to a bidding war, which is exactly what India would like most.
Frontlines in Ukraine getting more artillery and shells is more than welcome…Its just not quick enough
And the problem is that many of the brigades are struggling with many issues including lack of equipment and just can’t go on the offensive. You see a few counter attacks here and there!
Yet russians can suffer heavy casualties and still make small gains
I still believe KURSK is badly diverting equipment better needed elsewhere…
How many more casualties, over 600k and counting, does it take before the Russian population thinks there acceptable losses become unacceptable? The numbers are shocking. Russian society surely at some point has to say enough is enough.
I fear not. The Russians are a subdued, serf like people that will only stand up when their rulers look weak, like Tzar Nicholas II. Putin and his regime know that a loss in Ukraine will likely lead to their own personal demise and so have no compunctions about throwing ordinary Russians into the grinder to preserve their own skins. This will continue until they are decisively defeated or, bit by bit, they are able to achieve their war aims regardless of cost. The Russian population will do absolutely nothing like the whipped curs they are.
Unfortunately, the Russian historical record would appear to refute that hypothesis, at least at this casualty rate.
I have read that the estimation is Russia can sustain these losses for another 18 months to 2 years at the current attrition rate.
I cant see the war lasting another 18 months to 2 years. I think Trump presidency would pull the rug out from under Ukraine and then we will see crumbling support for the country, a generalised selling them out from all partners and then Russian victory, albeit at a very high cost. This of course wont make the west any safer as Russia will have taken a country that was a perfect buffer zone and good fighting territory. NATO will have to draw up plans to then defend Romania, Poland, Hungary and Bulgaria all of which have much more difficult… Read more »
Well…that’s the key point, Russia peasants ( I call them that as they are seemingly illiterate and not aware of wider world-wide information and believe blindly what they are told) are fed propaganda and a daily diet of lies from Putin and his oligarch controlled dictatorship. They believe what they are told. eg that Russia is fighting an existential war for its very existence, the war in Ukraine is protecting Russian speaking peoples from Nazis and the evils of an encroaching NATO hell-bent on invading and conquering Russia. Under those circumstances sacrifice and casualties for “mother Russia” are acceptable and… Read more »
We can expect to see NK ‘soldiers’ in those figures very soon!
With the same principles, the North Koreans are even less likely to complain or rise up with causalities sustained fighting in Ukraine for Mad Vlad’s ideology.
You will likely find thousands of North Koreans promptly fragging their officers, ditching their Uniform and heading West, it’s a golden opportunity to get away from ‘Lil’ Kim’s grasp.
The Russian tactics are similar to WW2 and Russia’s steamroller attacks, without the co-ordination of air support, massive artillery support and training. This really is meat grinding warfare and Russia seems to be happy enough under Mad Vlad to pay that price. No sign of discontent or uprising despite these huge casualties.
“Russia’s approach is one of attrition, relying on overwhelming Ukrainian defensive positions with massed forces”
I am hoping the day when they can no longer do this, is rapidly approaching, In the meantime we have to keep our support for UKR going.
Not sure if any of you saw the screenshots from Russian news showing a CR2 turret sans hull somewhere in Kursk. The turret was absolutely torn to pieces following a cook off. Oddly it revealed that the sides of the CR2 turrets appear to simply by one thick sheet of steel rather than composite