The UK Ministry of Defence has issued an intelligence update highlighting the uncertainty surrounding Russia’s future in the Eastern Mediterranean.
Following the collapse of its former Syrian ally, the Assad regime, Russia’s Permanent Mediterranean Task Group (PMTG) has lost access to its critical Tartus naval base for logistical and maintenance support, with no comparable alternative base in the region.
The update states, “The future of Russia’s bases in Syria remains unclear whilst there is political uncertainty in the country. However, Russia is almost certainly seeking to retain a presence in the Mediterranean.” This would enable Moscow to support operations in Africa and mitigate reputational damage from the Assad regime’s collapse.
Latest Defence intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 21 January 2025.
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Defence Intelligence also noted that the Ukraine conflict remains Russia’s primary focus, likely degrading its capacity to sustain its influence in Syria: “Russia’s prioritisation of the Ukraine conflict likely degraded Russia’s ability and capacity to keep the Assad regime in power.”
The possibility of relocating forces or equipment to North Africa was flagged, but the update concludes that “Russia’s intent to redeploy any forces or equipment to potential alternative locations in North Africa remains unclear.” This development underscores the broader implications of Russia’s strategic overstretch as the Ukraine war continues.
Russia’s Mediterranean Task Force
The Russian Navy’s Permanent Mediterranean Task Group was established in 2013 to project Russian power in the Middle East and through the Mediterranean Sea. This force builds on the legacy of the Soviet Navy’s 5th Operational Squadron, which operated from 1967 until its deactivation in 1992.
The re-established task force consisted of warships and auxiliary vessels from the Black Sea, Northern, and Baltic Fleets, with its operations primarily centred around Syria.
In late 2021, as tensions escalated before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the task force was reinforced with Slava-class cruisers Marshal Ustinov and Varyag, alongside escorts, to strengthen anti-surface group capabilities in the Mediterranean. However, Turkey’s closure of the Dardanelles Straits in February 2022 under the Montreux Convention limited Russia’s ability to reinforce its Mediterranean presence from the Black Sea, effectively restricting its naval options in the region.
This is where the western powers need to do a bit of nose holding, not get holier than thou about stuff and essentially buy the new regime, even if they are not particularly liberal or that pretty….stuff their mouths with gold and support and they will not need to turn to Russian money.
The new regime is as criminal as the Former one, they,re killing Christians and Sunnis every Day.
Well either way I doubt we could totally buy them off they would be mad to put any faith in the US and Trump while expediency will lead to them playing off both sides, leaving doors ajar and getting the best fence sitting deal they can rather like a mini version of India I suspect. So if it’s a swing door all you will get is it swinger a little more in your direction but more than capable of going a little in reverse.
Could Russia turn to Libya if no joy in Syria?
I’m no expert but my reading of the situation there is that Libya is another Syria in the waiting. Civil war there continues but with some limited involvement of the west and Turkey on one side. the side with western backing could likely “play interference” to any base, or at least its operations from there.. The Russians could buy their way into a port but it appears they would need to enter into regime support to stay long term. Syria fell because of Russian overstretch and they couldn’t enter into the level of regime support required there. In short, the Russians need a base with no potential ompications so they can deploy long time whilst concentrating on Ukraine. Alternatuve opinions welcome
I tend to agree with you. Libyan factions are not keen to commit to heavily to one side or the other as the new Syrian regime won’t want to. Certainly can’t see other than being up against a thick brick wall that Libyans even those supported by Russia would want to such commitment to them, Turkey has a lot of influence there, doubt Egypt would be keen either. Equally what faith Libyan factions have in Russian power after the Syrian debacle. Just look at Iraq we had all that anti western rhetoric and get their forces out a few years back then a few weeks back we have them over here discussing security arrangements because they can’t afford not to have the West there. Lots of factions but a sort of uneasy acceptance prevails to try to maintain a balance or power and survival.