Satellite pictures appear to show an elite Russian unit lost after “concentrated Russian vehicle losses” spotted near Vuhledar.
Recent satellite imagery has revealed a concentration of Russian vehicle losses in the Vuhledar area of Donetsk Oblast, believed to be from Russia’s elite 155th Naval Infantry Brigade.
According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine:
“Imagery shows concentrated Russian vehicle losses in the Vuhledar sector of Donetsk Oblast. These vehicles were likely elements of Russia’s 155th Naval Infantry (NI) Brigade which has been at the forefront of recent costly offensives. NI is seen as an elite infantry force within the Russian military.
Unlike the similarly prestigious airborne infantry (VDV), NI has not deployed as a single large formation in Ukraine. Instead, individual units have been attached to Ground Forces-dominated Groups of Forces. As such, NI has been tasked with some of the toughest tactical missions in the war and has suffered extremely high casualties.
The supposedly enhanced capability of NI brigades has now almost certainly been significantly degraded because it has been backfilled with inexperienced mobilised personnel. This lack of experience is almost certainly exacerbating Russian officers’ tendency to micromanage, which in turn reduces operational agility. There is a realistic possibility that degraded NI units will again be committed to new assaults near Vuhledar.”
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 26 February 2023
Find out more about Defence Intelligence: https://t.co/LaZxiqvjnz
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/RODCq3oCxg
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) February 26, 2023
The war is turning into a systematic slaughter of Russian armour and troops.
How much longer this can continue remains to be seen. But with the number of modern weapons queuing up on the Ukrainian border, there can only be one outcome.
LINK
And with some donations, even quicker I would have thought.
LINK
I worry that outcome could change if our Chinese ‘friends’ start supplying them with ammunition and drones
To be honest I think the Russia army has been gutted, with both is professional soldiers and officers suffering huge casualties. At some point all Russia will have left is conscripts who would not be able to anything other than attrition warfare no matter the materials supplied. It’s probably going to take a decade to recover.
The numerically smaller side (Ukraine) does not want to be drawn into attritional warfare.
Well I supposed for Ukraine it will be about the other side taking all the Attrition. If the Ukrainian army is still able to undertake combined arms mobile warfare with good fires and the Russian army is stalled and is only capable grinding attritional warfare the attrition will be one sided.
Although we do need to remember that Russia and china are playing nice but Russia will still not turn its back on china and it’s so paranoid it will still need to ensure the security of its northern borders against NATO as well as keeping an eye on places like Georgia..so in reality the balance of mass between Ukraine and Russia is less than you would expect as Russia is surrounded by what it considers enemies or less than trusted friends… Ukraine also has a lot of land it can exchange for destroyed Russian battle groups.
You’re right to be concerned Steve but I wonder whether the Chinese want to be associated with a loser and damage their own interests.
Their economy is not in the greatest shape at the moment, so with the clear threat of sanctions I doubt they would be so stupid.
Time will tell of course.
All up in the air isn’t it. The Chinese are still in that phase where they rely substantially on western economies and they are economically suffering due to their until recently absolutist covid policies. As we have seen despite its brutal control it’s people will demonstrate if they feel agitated enough, so you have a point that the last thing China needs at the moment is more pressure on its economy even if we are all rather dependent on it presently. If that takes a targeted (at the very least) hit due to sending weapons with no doubt further increased pressure upon larger foreign Companies already in the early stages of moving production away into the likes of India and Vietnam, to increase that momentum, then that could destabilise the political status quo even considering Xi’s seemingly strong power base. Russia’s initial aims were very beneficial to China what’s happening now is anything but and will have substantial economic and political hits the longer it persists. Therefore their choice is to go all in to support Russia in finishing it as originally envisaged or to force a peace proposal through that neither side will be happy with.
What with their present peace plan I suspect they prefer that option (it’s best scenario for them) but I suspect there is much soul searching and factional debate internally on the matter that revolves around both their unwillingness to risk their economic expansion on one hand and their greater plan for a new world order whereby they predominantly take over from the US in controlling matters using Russia as its sidekick and attack dog in keeping Europe in line. Can’t afford to humiliate Russia or see it humiliated due to that plan but can’t afford the potential damage to their economy and dismantling of their status as workshop to the West until their hold, military and economic clout is a good bit stronger yet. The true picture of what these two have planned has become stark rather sooner than either had clearly wished by the long drawn out events in Ukraine which is turning out to be like the attack on France and Britain in 1939 rather than the absorbing of the Sudetenland it was planned to be with inevitable unexpected results for all concerned and the World generally.
I doubt that the Chinese will give anything more than warm words to the Russians mainly because sanctions on them would really harm their economy
I assume you mean the mainland CCP controlled Chinese, our ChiCom enemies. Not the free democratic Chinese, our friends on Taiwan. Given current developments that distinction is rather important.
The CCP can potentially supply much more than ammo and drones. All manner of logistical support including high end chips for weapon systems are up for grabs. Not forgetting small arms,all manner of missiles, armoured vehicles and aircraft. Most being clones of Russian equipment and copies of western systems. The CCP could also supply an almost endless column of trained soldiers to operate them. Unlike the Russians, the figures we have for the ChiCom manpower are accurate and fully trained. 2,000,000 plus.
If the two strike up a deal granting the CCP access to Siberian raw materials, which is very likely. Then the full industrial might of the CCP could back Putin. Add North Korea and Iran to that alliance, with any other nation the CCP can enlist. Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil and potentially South Africa etc Then we have the two sides forming up for WWIII.
That has concerned me right from the start, when NATO started to enable the untrustworthy Ukrainians. I’ve posted this on here before. The danger has always been polarising nations leading to WWIII.
This is no Cold War sideshow like Korea, Vietnam etc. Fought thousands of miles away from Washington, Moscow and Beijing. With a gentleman’s agreement not to go nuclear. The Ukrainian border is just four hours drive from the Kremlin. That’s 300 miles as the missiles fly or one Ukrainian nationalist button press from Armageddon.
Well we all know how this can end don’t we? The Orcs can go back behind their own borders!
Would that be the Russian or the Ukrainian Orcs?
I honestly see no difference between the two former soviet vipers nests.
It’s so crazy that American and Western companies have most of their manufacturing in communist China. It’s basically funding the massive Chicom military buildup and expansion. One day probably sooner than later Western men and women will be fighting and dying against a military that is funded by the West.
Very very little western military production is done in China. If any at all. Defense procurement contracts specify US supplied materials and labor to protect IP and ensure supply. Only exceptions are off the shelf minor parts and materials, think oil filters, clips and brackets, seals etc. And even those must be tested and approved. China does not build Javelins for the US Army nor artillery shells.
Nigel,
You post links frequently, would occasionally appreciate including one myself. Would you mind explaining process? Assume it is relatively straightforward?
Hi, Just type the word LINK, highlight it and select the link icon at the bottom of the text field situated just before the { } icon. A dialogue box will appear saying Enter Link.
Apply the link you wish to include and press Save, and finally save your post.
The word LINK should have changed from black to blue.
👍
I just copy and paste the link I want to include. It puts the whole address in instead of saying link. I’m on the phone mostly.
I also use a phone. 👌
Where would the world be without it’s mobile phones?
😁
Former:
Not Nigel (and I hope nobody thinks I’m “Making plans for Nigel”) but I’ve knocked out a wee GIF which hopefully will show how the process you required is carried out.
1) Type the word you want to use as a Link
2) Highlight the word you want to use as the link
3) Looking at the pictorials click the two-link chain (when you hover over it, a small balloon will identify it as Link) a box will appear, with the word you are using as your hyperlink inside the box
4) Delete the word inside the box and paste into the space the link you which to share (In this case, I’ve used the URL for this page. (URL been the internet address for this page) and then click Save.
5) The link will now turn blue.
6) That’s it.
https://i.postimg.cc/QdygHfrV/1.gif
👍
The first Leopard 2’s arrived over the last few days too.
As the Leopard numbers build and the trained crews come back from Europe, their western equipped Amoured formations will start to stand up for the Spring Counter Offensive, the Russians must be seriously sweating at the prospect!
I do wonder if the Ukrainians will push south east to cut off Crimea and push south to roll the Russians up in the peninsula, forcing a surrender.
With the sheer amount of new military equipment the west is sending, I think the outcome is a foregone conclusion.
I would tend to agree with your suggestion for a push from the southeast, this would allow them to strike into Crimea and destroy their supply lines and stocks of ammunition.
One of the most effective weapons we’ve seen during the war is the HIMARS, something we should consider in larger numbers for our armed forces going forward.
“Hanwha Defense signed a framework contract with Poland to deliver 288 K239 Chunmoo MLRS to the Polish Armed Forces in October 2022 to improve their deterrence capabilities.
The first batch of 18 K239 Chunmoo integrated with Polish subsystems, such as trucks and fire control systems, is expected to be delivered in 2023. The MLRS systems are expected to enter service with the 18th Mechanized Division of the Polish Armed Forces.
It will protect North Atlantic Treaty Organisation’s (NATO) eastern flank, safeguarding eastern Poland and other NATO countries.”
https://www.defensenews.com/resizer/42syjp5UymWqqknhUYmEZ2LHEf0=/1024×0/filters:format(jpg):quality(70)/cloudfront-us-east-1.images.arcpublishing.com/archetype/DJS4IM5YHFFCZLLH4OLEKY6C7A.jpg
Wish I had your confidence
Always think positively 😉
https://knowledgequest.aasl.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/november-2019.png
As an engineer, the glass is always full.
Whilst the lower portion contains an incompressible liquid the upper portion contains a compressible gaseous part, making the whole glass full.
Great reply. Where’s the up vote button when you need one.
Well, I would add:
Pessimist: The glass is half empty.
Optimist: The glass is half full.
Engineer: The glass is utilized to 50% of its capacity.
🤓
Thinking negatively. I hate this place and think we are doomed.
Thinking positively. I positively hate this place and firmly believe we are all doomed!
LOL
https://i.imgflip.com/4dfdoa.jpg
That is exactly who I was thinking about when I commented. Well done.
He actually looked like my long gone grandfather.
Saturday
Never underestimate Russia’s ability to take casualties I don’t think any Western Country can match Russian and Chinese ability in this field
Historically so true. Only Iran comes close. See Iran/Iraq war of the 1980’s and human wave attacks that rivaled the ChiComs in Korea. Mind blowing stuff.
People think of this a PlayStation game, you can win it by pushing buttons. Let not fool ourselves, Russia have a stranger way of fighting do not underestimate them. They will make you believe that they are losing the war then strike back. Napoleon have reached St Petersburg, Hitler have also reached Moscow. We’ll know the outcome of it. Remember 1945? Russian have fought the largest land than any western countries combined with US. Let make peace than war, and Britain must refrain from being the forefront of this war.
UK has the M270 system which is the same core system as HIMARS And fires the same range of munitions.
Getting all the units we have into service and ordering a stockpile of munitions would be a useful start.
We have, I think more launch platforms, in inventory, than the Ukrainians have in the field and we can see how effective they are.
So ATM Army needs to stop worrying about Future FIRSE but focus on Current FIRSE.
As usual Army is worry about how to spend £Bn’s on new projects whereas a few £100m’s, spent wisely, would do the job just fine.
Plans are for up to around 75 M270 if we can get our hands on the platforms. I believe we have sourced enough for 60 ish at the moment. Will be interesting to see what we do if we can’t get any more. HIMARS on a supacat platform seems an obvious choice if (big if) the money is available. Highly versatile and can be slung under a chinook. But, as you say, investing in munitions is key.
And indeed we should already have that had we not cancelled it over a decade ago. It would have been perfect for our use and supported an innovative UK Company. Thankfully they at least got a new large order recently for their vehicles.
Did UK Plc not put in an order for some £2.4 Billion worth of ammo orders last autumn sometime? Not sure what type/quantities were involved, but clearly still have to make good what we are sending to Ukraine.
I think there was an announcement along those lines – how much of it was spent with arms dealers for older stuff I’m not sure?
I recall reading this at the time, not sure if it has changed since.
September 22, 2022
UK seeking to double M270 MLRS fleet
“All options to expand the fleet are being considered, apparently including looking at vehicles currently in museums or acting as military gate guards.
As we are currently in the process of selecting the Hanwha K9A2 I thought their version might be of interest to us as well including workshare.”
The K9A2 will create close to 900 jobs across the UK alone.
LINK
Not sure why we would have any MLRS in museums or as gate guards – the equipment has not been declared Obsolete.
Are we definitely selecting K9A2 or is that just on a shortlist? There was talk of an interim solution before going for our next full-house SPG?
Shortlisted, with a decision being made this year I believe.
This would be an opportunity missed in my opinion. South Korea is developing some first-class equipment, and a workshare for the UK could be huge.
In regard to Challenger 3, can we afford to wait this long?
“The initial operating capability for the upgraded tanks is expected by 2027, with full operational capability expected to be declared by 2030.”
Ajax: No date can be given until all testing has been completed.
LINK
ZRPK BIHOll is the next-generation air defence system
https://topwar.ru/uploads/posts/2019-01/1546847077_p1d0hlud2ei3i3gcmqidlmjsl2.jpg
If we did order K2 the in service date after trails and such will be a lot longer than waiting for CR3
Hi Jacko, two points. First, we would be receiving brand new tanks and better specked than Challenger 3 it appears.
Two, they can be supplied far more quickly. Poland place an order for these including K9 self-propelled guns and received the first ones within three months.
They are currently developing an unmanned turret with a 130mm main gun.
“Currently, we are talking about the first 10 K2 Black Panther tanks out of 180 ordered and 24 K9 Thunder self-propelled guns out of 212 ordered.
By the beginning of 2025 and the beginning of 2026, respectively, all ordered tanks and self-propelled guns should be delivered to the Polish Army.
In addition, after that, Poland has to produce another 820 K2PL tanks and 460 K9 self-propelled guns under the K9A2 index at its own facilities. Impressive numbers!
It seems that soon the strongest NATO army in Europe will be the army of Poland.”
LINK
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/E311rm2XoAEXAbd?format=jpg&name=large
Sorry but you don’t just ‘order’ an MBT and then put it into service without the proper trails etc,Poland has had time to sort out supply lines and the logistics for these vehicles they didn’t order them yesterday and got them today! CR 3 will be a brand new tank apart from the hull which in itself is getting an armour upgrade! In effect Poland is hedging their bets with the K2 by ordering M1 as well. Do you advocate we adopt another design as well as CR3? And before the doom mongers start this is exactly what the newest M1&leo a6/7 are new upgrades added to existing tanks and then labelled ‘new’ tanks so we are doing no different to them!
2030 it is then! Let’s hope we do not run into the same issues as Ajax.
And for the record, The tank is in service and has already been tested. In short, it works.
Example:
“The Mk 45 is in service with the US Navy and 10 other allied nations. More than 240 Mk 45 guns have been delivered into service globally.”
We just purchased it.
LINK
Would you buy 200/300 cars because they have been tested? Just because it runs does it make it the perfect tank for us? Are you going to moan about the cost of cancelling the contract with Rhienmettal and all the associate contracts and then spend billions more on a system we know nothing about just because the Poles like it?
Would you purchase 200/300 Ajax Jacko?
Out of interest, how many countries are using Challenger 3 and Ajax currently, and how are they performing?
As for systems, we know nothing about?
2023.01.17
“During the visit, the delegates took a tour of the K9 production line in Changwon, about 300 kilometres south of Seoul, to learn the manufacturing details, indicating the potential for a K9 facility in the U.K.
There are over 1,700 units already in service with seven NATO and allied nations, including Turkey, Poland, Norway and Estonia. More recently, Australia and Egypt have joined the K9 User Club, bringing the number of K9 customer countries to nine, while Poland signed a framework agreement in July 2022 to procure over 600 more of K9s.”
Anyway, as there isn’t going to be a war in Europe anytime soon, we have all the time in the world, so 2030 is just fine!
https://i0.wp.com/militaryleak.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/K9.jpg
Not said anything about K9 obviously it’s being considered for AS90 replacement. Ajax is on the mend as RGT has started so hopefully that’s sorted and 500 odd are already ordered!what does it matter about top trumps with numbers it’s been decided CR3 is the way we are going and in another article on here it is ahead of schedule and more might be ordered🤞As for a war in Europe how many regiments would you equip with this super tank? CR2 would handle itself very well against the Orcs if used properly as hopefully the Ukr will prove.
IOC for CR3 is 2027, FOC is 2030 but Wallace is trying to shave some time off those dates.
There is very little chance of CR3 having similar problems to the Ajax programme – they are very different programmes.
👍Fingers crossed.
We need more of something by all accounts I won’t mention what 😂It was interesting to note that Pearson Engineering features in the Team Thunder programme as well.
A 20-year veteran of the Royal Tank Regiment, Lt. Col. Stuart Crawford told The Times that the British Army was now “hopelessly under-equipped. They [tanks] are so few in number and there are no reserves.”
“The Royal Armoured Corps is now a ‘use once only’ asset,” he added, “because we have no replacement tanks to re-equip it.”
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Stuart is mistaken.
We do have an Attrition Reserve of CR2 tanks (and all other AFVs), and a specialised Army Reserve unit to deliver them operationally.
Last time I looked, Germany had twice as many as we do, with half in storage.
In which case they could donate some to Ukraine, but I doubt they will somehow.
Ukraine is fighting our enemy hear in Europe with no loss of life to NATO forces and wiping the floor with them.
So why not supply them with enough equipment to comfortably finish the job off?
Have we only sent three MLRS units to UA?
FIRSE?
👍I’d forgotten about this.
LINK
Reply waiting for approval again 🙄
The West is not sending enough kit for successful offensive operations. Small numbers of tanks, no weapons with very long range, no fighter jets, no attack helicopters.
In terms of attack helicopters, doesn’t UK have out of service AH-64Ds available? Or were they turned over to the contractor for a credit, or stripped for salvageable parts? Hmmm…wonder whether US is in the same situation?
The plan used to be for UK to send 50 (out of 67) AH64-Ds to Boeing for conversion to AH-64E, therefore we would have 17 (or less if there had been accident attrition) D’s left over.
But I did hear that instead new airframes were used – not sure. If that is true there should be 67 D’s being lined up for sale, gifting or disposal.
I am really not up to date on this – hopefully someone elese is.
The problem is that the AH-64 is a complex machine that requires a huge amount of training to fly. It also requires a lot of training and resources to maintain. Now we should probably train them up on it, but in the meantime they need something better than they have and they need it right now. We need to get them simpler hardware that they can train up on in weeks rather than years.
You would start by taking a Ukrainian pilot who was experienced at flying Soviet-era attack helicopters back home and put them through an Apache conversion course – they would not be rookie pilots. But a conversion course may be lengthy, I agree.
Agreed. And as I posted above, Ukraine is fighting our enemy hear in Europe with no loss of life to NATO forces and wiping the floor with them.
So why not supply them with enough equipment to comfortably finish the job off?
Agreed. We have only sent Ukraine 6% of our in-service tanks, & only sent three MLRS units. We could send more.
It is to our benefit if Russian forces are so severely written down that they did not pose a threat to any other sovereign nation for the next 10 or more years – that would give us time to recapitalise/regenerate our own forces, especially our army.
I was hoping our Challys would arrive first – but no matter. The process has begun. I heard it confirmed over the weekend by BBC or Sky News that the US Abrams won’t be in Theatre for another year – hopeless – that’s far too late. It does seem to confirm the surmise that they are building new ones without DU mesh armour.
They are also considering taking them from current stocks based in Europe. Fingers crossed the training starts soon at the very least.
It’s interesting to see what’s happening in Europe on the helicopter front. Germany and other European countries are looking for light attack versions.
Thanks mate. It seems mad to build new M1s when there is no time for that unless it is true that the US don’t want to release tanks with DU armour. Much more sensible to draw them from current stocks in Europe and then backfill.
I have heard nothing about the supply of helicopters to Ukraine, so your info is helpful.
Apparently they build the tanks from pre existing parts picking and choosing the final items as appropriate for each Country.
I wonder what is deemed appropriate for Ukraine.
It could be Graham, I think we need to send 60/70 CH2, the equivalent of an Armoured regiment with some attrition reserve
It really is the best use for Chally2, they are largely gathering dust anyway as we draw down to a pathetic two armoured Regiments….
I too think we should send far more than 14 CR2 tanks – that is a feeble number. Right now and for the next few years hence, I doubt our tanks have ‘another claim on their time.’
We are scrapping one regt of tanks (KRH) – not saying I agree with that but it is what is in the plan for Future Soldier – so we should send a total of 56 tanks (ie another 42) plus an Attrition Reserve – why not send 62 in total ie another 48.
We can still feed the CR3 line with 148 donor vehicles and have 17 CR2s left over.
There is a greater need for our Challys to be in Ukraine fighting Russians (the outer shell of our nation’s defence and a worthy cause too) than being in the UK with units or in storage.
Rethink of course if it is decided to U-turn and retain that 3rd armoured regiment.
Perhaps a matter of semantics, but, more properly, the remanufacture of existing units. Did learn from one account that the current throughput of Lima tank plant is ~30+ vehicles/mo. (M1A2 + unspecified other types), and that output could be expanded ‘significantly,’ w/ the addition of another production shift. The US defense industrial base is beginning to wake from slumber, after only one year of European continental warfare! 🤔😳😱
Thanks mate. The UA needs those western tanks fast – and I mean in the next few weeks. No time available to remanufacture from existing units.
The UK (land) defence industrial base is a pale imitation of what it used to be. Not long ago we had 5 different AFV manufacturers, BAE had 2 quite new tank factories (Leeds and Newcastle), MoD had a great vehicles Design, R&D & Testing site in Surrey, and we had MoD QA inspectors embedded in the factories.
It’s going to be interesting to see just how well western tanks actually perform. The gulf wars with open deserts are very different than what is going on on Ukraine. Plus things have moved on since then in terms of armour and anti tank weapons.
The slight issue is that even if they perform badly the fan boys will argue that they weren’t fitted with the best add-on armour etc.
I think the Western Armour is going to be a game changer. Used aggressively by well trained and motivated crews, they will throw the Russians back by punching through into the enemies rear areas and allowing the mechanised infantry to pour in behind.
Certainly that is the current assumption, but that was also the assumption on how Russian tanks would perform going back to January last year. Based on the conditions that appear to be put on how the chally will be used, it would seem there is some nervousness on whether they will perform in practice as well as on paper. Whether that is just being extra cautious or based on actual concerns who knows. We will find out in the summer.
As both Chally and Leo’s were actually designed to fight in Europe there shouldn’t be too may concerns there! However the first Leo’s appear to be A4s which are actually older than CR2 and have inferior armour to a Chally!
…and the Leo 1’s are older and even more inferior.
Steve, What are the conditions on how Chally will be used?
Chally has performed in real kinetic warfare not just on paper.
What was reported was that they would only be used in places that they could be recovered and not in areas Ukraine is likely to lose. The concern was that they would be picked up by the Russians and the tech stolen. Whether true or not who knows.
The tech on CR2 is pretty old – 1990s technology – they have probably picked up much info since then from espionage.
Security issues did not stop us selling CR2 to Oman and CR1 to Jordan.
Hopefully, but there is so little of it.
This may well prove to be the most significant trial of Western armour since at least the first Gulf war. Believe there will be rapt attention re performance in future ops., both by collective Western armoured Command Staffs, and equally, by relevant defense contractors. 🤔
Were any of the western tanks hit during the gulf war? Most of the kills seemed to be at long enough range that they outranged the Iraq tanks, but I assume some hits must have happened.
Actually, considering overall performance/effectiveness in a full threat environment (artillery, ATGM, etc.).
Plenty of hits, from what I was told in 2005, but a question mark over whether Iraqi APFSDS rounds were all they should have been. Lots of hits by RPGs in Iraq too, also with little effect.
221 CR1s deployed in the first Gulf War (GW1) and did exceptionally well.
CR2 deployed to Bosnia, Kosovo and Iraq (GW2) and did exceptionally well.
It would be amazing if no western tank was hit by the enemy.
CR2s were hit repeatedly by enemy fire but none were destroyed and very few were damaged. Wikipedia carries a good account:
Extract: “During the 2003 invasion of Iraq, the Challenger 2 tanks suffered no tank losses to Iraqi fire. In one encounter within an urban area, a Challenger 2 came under attack from irregular forces with machine guns and rocket propelled grenades (RPGs). The driver’s sight was damaged and while attempting to back away under the commander’s directions, the other sights were damaged and the tank threw its tracks entering a ditch. It was hit by 14 RPG-7s from close range and a MILAN anti-tank guided missile.[48] The crew survived, safe within the tank until it was recovered for repairs, the worst damage being to the sighting system. It was back in operation six hours later. According to the British army, one Challenger 2 operating near Basra survived being hit by 70 RPGs in another incident.[49]
I hadn’t read it the one that was made non operational but recovered has been hit by a Milan missile. Here’s hoping that continues.
The second Gulf War was also a good run-out for US and British armour. The 120 CR2s deployed did exceptionally well but the Iraqi tanks were old.
Fair point, but the armour was all designed primarily for Eastern Euopean operations. I anticipate good performance, if maintenance is on point.
That’s my thought also, an offensive to the south east to chop the Russians in 2 and cut off the land corridor, then roll them back each side, however that’s an armchair general view of things and bears no factual reality on ground operations. Western equipment used aggressively and not cautiously may be the enabler, that and the guts and bravery of the Ukrainians, which isn’t in doubt.
RE Crimea, one possible strategy I recently read was that they could prevent the opening of the gates on the North Crimean Canal. This combined with the severe difficulty the Russians have resupplying Crimea and the southern front following the attack on the Kerch Bridge, will likely lead to a massive crop failure and famine on the Crimean peninsular, with a mass exodus of Russian civilians and a failure of the southern front as a possible result. The idea being that the Ukrainians could possibly re-take Crimea with “minimal” effort.
Not sure how likely/possible that plan might be, would welcome any insight from anyone more knowledgeable than I.
The North Crimean Canal is fully operational. The rail link and both carriageways of the Kerch Bridge are also all operational.
A few years ago the Ukrainians closed the canal and cut electricity supplies to Crimea. The results, even without the current land ‘bridge’ and Kerch Gridge were nowhere near as you describe. Since then the Russians have upgraded both water and power infrastructures.
The prospect of anyone taking Crimea with ‘minimal’ effort is probably more remote than ever. The Germans certainly didn’t, it took them 8 months of hard fighting and they had CAS.
But that is not accurate is it?
They are still rebuilding one section of the rail bridge …there is a huffing big gap in one section of it. The other side is restricted for weight.
The road section opened with lane restrictions and only to cars…
So no its not fully operational.
You are correct, I got it wrong. The latest information is from a press release 5 days ago on the announcement of the full completion of the road repairs back to how it was. It does say ‘cars’ but I’m not sure about the word’s translation from Russian, I’m trying to check it as logically trucks could now use it. The target for the damaged railway section repairs completion is the Ist July.
Once again, your misinformation and bullshit is cauterised by contact with reality and facts.
I wish this site still had a voting function, have a virtual high five instead. 🖐
Oh wrong again, yep default setting.
The thing is John in Minsk, the Germans were fighting determined locals, bravely protecting their territory.
Today it’s the brave and motivated Ukrainians pushing out a rabble of murderous Nationalist rapists and their civilian lap dogs….
Watch the resistance crumble and flying white flags, closely followed by the mad scrabble for the Kirch bridge before the Ukrainians destroy it….
Word is, the Russians are not just sitting back messing their collective shtany (traditional trousers.). It was after all, soviet home turf until quite recently and long considered part of the Rodina. They still have an unknown number of old KGB agents embedded in Ukraine built up over the last hundred years.
Leo and Chall. 2 will be hard to conceal from Russian satellites. If not used as decoys, they will give the game away. Perhaps a Coy or two of inflatable Leo 2 dummies would be very useful to the Ukrainians.
My gut feeling is that Crimea is Putin’s true red line. Beyond which the balloon goes up and it turns nuclear, or at least battlefield WMDs. Just what he considers Crimea, is anyone’s guess. It could be anything south of the Dnieper from Kherson to … who knows?
As China are now very publicly involved in this and supposedly a meeting Zelensky (is or might be on the cards) will happen then its clear Russia is looking for an exit.
China will want to be the hero on the world stage for this that is becoming very clear and any possible peace will only be brokered with them involved.
China’s peace plan had some ok points in it but currently is unacceptable as it doesn’t have that the Russia has to leave Ukraine or even go back to 2014 lines.
Basically Russia gets to keep any gains and we know they will try and make a move again.
Best solution I see is Russia leaves all of Ukraine , peacekeepers are sent in to the border and a DMZ half in Ukraine, half in Russia is set up. Russia gets its buffer zone and Ukraine gets peace.
Anyone not happy living in Ukraine can be paid €1m resettlement to move to Russia giving up Ukrainian nationality, passport and accepting a Russian one.
Zelensky would want far more including prosecutions for war crimes, full reparations, and future security guarantees.
Yes, someone, well versed in international civil law, please explain why the process of expropriation of seized Russian funds has not been initiated. Believe the reported three hundred billion (approximately) would serve as a reasonable down payment; peace talks could include provision for Russian preparations by means of partitioning the income stream from sale of natural resources, virtually in perpetuity. 🤔😳
Zelensky has recently stated he wants to retake Crimea, so I doubt peace talks will get very far if that’s the case.
and rightly so.
Depends on the carrot. Russia will have to give up at least some of the land captured, but the question is what is China going to offer Ukraine to sweaten the deal.
Zelensky is currently talking a big game, because he has to, but who knows what his real thoughts are. It’s a coin toss between him wanting peace and him playing China so they don’t use it as an excuse to arm Russia.
Read further down this link Steve.
“Ukraine war – latest: Kyiv plans to ‘drive a wedge between Russia and Crimea – as Moscow rejects China’s peace planKremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Chinese peace plan should be analysed in detail and account for the interests of all sides, but suggested Moscow saw no signs suggesting a peaceful resolution was feasible.”
LINK
This is all war of words, for the domestic audience. Same always happens when peace talks are going on, both sides say things are impossible in public, to save face if they fail, whilst in private discuss things. It seems unlikely that Ukraine would accept loss of large parts of it’s lands but we really don’t know what the truth is like in respect of their losses or continual will to fight an endless war.
The first we will know that either side is serious about peace will be when the deal is announced.
And that’s putting aside that it’s a really bad negotiating position to go into talks indicating your willing to give on any front. You go in aiming for the skies and end up meeting half way.
I have no inside info, so have no way to know if we have reached the point where both sides are serious about peace or not, but it will have to happen at some point.
Suspect you are right if Ukraine can gain rock solid guarantees of its borders then giving up Crimea would be a great victory even if the Donbas took on a somewhat Kosovo look about it as long as it gets back the rest of its southern lands. Sadly I just don’t think Crimea and a full return of the Donbas is a likely result but in the end it depends on just how bad things are in Russia and with its forces. The fact that Prigozhin (Wagner boss) is threatening Sergei Shoigu’s Son in law with sending him to the front after he’s been raped is really pushing matters beyond the line.
Either means he is deeply desperate knowing the failing military situation and or knows Putin is now politically very vulnerable and loosing support, convinced maybe over confident of his power base and importance, or is incredibly stupid and over rates his chances of not being eliminated be it now or after any post war scenario. A very dangerous game whichever it is but surely shows the desperate state of affairs in Russia whatever the big words.
It’s hard to know what peace would like like, that would secure Ukraine’s long term security and not just be a way for Russia to rearm. Russia will know that once peace happens the west will lose interest and instead of arming Ukraine for free will try and get some money out of it.
Maybe Chinese peacekeepers in Donbas or Russia acceptance of Ukraine joining NATO. Neither seems like a solution that would be welcomed by Russia. A UN peace mission just won’t have the miltiary strength to act as a serious buffer, unless the US was involved and I can’t see Russia accepting US troops right on its border. So far China doesn’t seem interested in playing world police but I guess that could change.
It is not clear to me that Putin is seeking an exit – his forces havebeen ramping up for a Spring offensive, he has called up more people to serve, and his rhetoric has not been more conciliatory.
Hope the Ukrainian’s can take out some more Russian ships and subs lurking around too. Blow up first, then talk about it afterwards.
👍A few more Moskvas wouldn’t go amiss!
https://media-cldnry.s-nbcnews.com/image/upload/t_nbcnews-fp-1200-630,f_auto,q_auto:best/rockcms/2022-05/220505-moskva-ship-sink-jm-1625-228284.jpg
Later steamed to Sevastopol under its own power and tied up alongside according to JohninMagnetogorsk.
Ah yes, we all remember and continue to have a laugh at his past 12 months of propaganda statements, outright lies and diversionary waffle.
Uncertain whether this is the same unit of Naval Infantry, but have read other accounts of similar units, already decimated and reconstituted one or more times during this conflict. Plausible that Russian Naval Infantry is a nearly synonymous description of a unit seeking equivalency w/ the USMC or RM. Was and am strictly a spectator re elite infantry units, but believe it takes years of training to become truly proficient and develop appropriate esprit de corps, not simply the completion of basic training and placement into a previously defeated unit which is attempting to reconstitute itself. Amazing lack of knowledge and/or judgement exhibited by the Russian General Staff. 🤔😳
“Amazing lack of knowledge and/or judgement exhibited by the Russian General Staff.”
Hand them a uniform and weapon then pack them off in numbers to the front to fight.
That’s the Russian General Staffs’ approach to fighting a war.
Well since it’s estimated around 20 of them have been killed, with many more sacked…as for its field grade officers I have seen estimates of over 350 killed.
I doubt whether any Russian units have shown they are ‘elite’ in this conflict. They are just incompetent full stop.
It does, and the Russians are not mate. Just because someone is sat in a wheelchair doesn’t make them Stephen Hawkins…. ;0)
Read somewhere that this unit has had to be pulled out of the fighting and reconstituted 3 times. Kyiv, Kharkiv and now Vuhledar. I doubt if it’s elite even by Russias standards anymore. Also apparently the great Russian offensive we were told about by Russia did kick off 10 days or so ago it’s just no-one noticed 😂 Now we wait for Spring and the Ukranian offensive. 👍
There is no longer an elite
Meanwhile the Russian “political elites” sit back in comfort in their palaces, applauding each other’s speeches and sending 100,000s of their own to be slaughtered. Plus killing, maiming, raping the Ukrainian people, destroying infrastructure buildings, lives. For what, really? They deserve to be completely bulldozed out of the country. Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and its people and President.
Ot sure there are many in the elite who feel especially comfortable presently. Either they show undying commitment to Putin which restricts their freedom to act independently to further their wealth or preserve it and threatens any role once he’s gone, or they distance themselves and risk an accident with a window. Various strange deaths of late seem, on the surface at least to involve those thought to be supporters as well as those who have shown dissatisfaction. Not sure who could feel secure in that environment especially as potential opposition assassins complicate matters. Would you even trust your body guards?
They are really scraping the barrel now! I don’t fancy the chances of any infantry in these death traps.
https://defence-blog.com/russia-to-deploy-vintage-btr-50-tracked-carriers-to-ukraine/
According to Oryx, visually confirmed Russian losses include;
• 2,000 IFV
• 1,700 MBT
• 800 AFV
• 500 artillery
• 300 APC
• 200 drones
• 80 helicopters
• 70 fixed-wing
• 12 ships
actual losses likely to be far higher.
As well as probably a good portion of its professional army.
It would be interesting to know (if details were available) just what portion of the Russian professional army was no longer functional?
They still have a sizeable portion of troops based within the Western/Central and Eastern command regions. Not sure how many troops they would want to commit from Western/Eastern districts, as they directly oppose Nato/China.
What is probably more telling is their lack of more modern equipment available to them now, given the current losses over the past 12 months.
If the stories about the T-14 Armata and T-64 are proven correct, then I’m not entirely sure what AFV the Russians will be using this year, unless of course they source some direct from PRC/Iran/NK ?
indeed you can sort of get an impression through a number of known facts or likely variables
1),the Russian army stated that it had 280,000ish professional soldier before the invasion…but it’s seems potentially around halfish of those could have actually been conscripted soldiers who had signed a 2 year and done contract to get better conditions of service..so these would not really have been professions solders as the west would define it. Leaving a truly professional army that that looked more like having 150,000 professional solders. It also had around 250,000 pure conscripts 1 year term conscripts ( who have no real military training) ..for a total of around 500,000.
2) The Russia government made it clear that only professional contracted soldiers were involved in the invasion..and they moved most of their professional solders into the Ukraine…it’s estimated they moved 150,000 troops in that first wave…which would equate the the vast majority of its professional army ( it had about 40,000 other irregular troops as well)
3) Russian mobilised around 300,000 new conscripts and reserves over 2022. Which would have given around 800,000 troops but:
4) it now has around 300,000 troops in Ukraine and around 150,000 in Russian for 450,000 total so it’s lost 350,000 troops, through death, injury, retirement…which would not be out of line with estimates of KIA which is now 200,000.
Now if it’s professional soldiers were the first150,000 to enter that meat grinder ( and we know they were) and their troop losses are close to 350,000, it’s not likely Russia has many of its original professional solders left considering we know they had 250,000 conscripts and a further 300,000 called up conscripts that only got feed into Ukraine later..so it looks like Russia has gone full WW1 and has destroyed its professional army and is now left with conscripts to feed in.
That being the case, you have to begin to wonder if the Russians can actually achieve their aims with this latest offensive?
You might also speculate as to the impact these losses are having back in Russia. Mad Vlad and his cronies can only hide the truth for so long.
If it hasn’t already, then the truth will slowly start to filter through to the general population, which in turn should/could lead to much unrest back in the motherland so to speak. This might just become the ‘straw that breaks the camals back’ and lead to him being ‘retired’….
You’re just feeding us American backed propaganda with no link to reality nor the amazing ability of the fantastic Russian military to transform not only their tactics but equipment.
For example, those 12 ships are now submarines.
Their tanks and lesser IFVs are road blocks and all those dead you quote are actually tunnelling for victory; they’re only referred to as dead as a form maskyrovka(sp).
Russian ingenuity will win, you’ll see!
Russian ingenuity indeed, turning their troops into regiments of unstoppable zombies… they’ve mastered the getting them killed part, they just need to work out how to reanimate the corpses… but once the do, an unstoppable army of the undead!
And so clever too getting the Ukranians to expend their limited stocks of air-defence missiles by wasting them on Soviet-era helicopters and fighters. Once the Russians have some new aircraft and trained some new pilots then the Ukranians will wish they weren’t so trigger happy!
Their CPR resus machines are probably a tad old 😉
You had me in the first half 🙂
Sorry, the difference(s) between an IFV and AFV? Presumably one at least contains an infantry (squad/team/section?) US/UK equivalents?
AFV is basically any armoured vehicle, then they get narrowed down to tanks,IFVs etc👍
👍
Think along the lines of AFV = M113, Stryker, Humvee etc. Whereas IFV = Bradley. Though some Strykers are being uparmoured and up gunned to IFV standards.
The armoured fighting vehicle generally provides protection from small arms and artillery shell splinters. They are not meant to go toe to toe with peer enemy units. More like a battle taxi, where it gets troops to near a contact, then drops them off, for them to either dig in and wait for the enemy or walk to the start line to engage the enemy. However in non-peer or asymmetric warfare, AFVs are used to support infantry on combat patrols or deliberate offensives as they are lighter, but can mount heavy machine guns etc, ie Iraq, Afghan and Mali.
The infantry fighting vehicle is part of a heavy armoured formation. Where it transports infantry to support MBTs. It will have an auto canon that can be used to engage enemy IFVs. It will be substantially heavier than an AFV due to the much thicker armour. This armour is meant to protect the vehicle from opposing IFV fire, normally just over the frontal arc. It is meant to get the infantry to the contact area, debus them, then support them as they maneuver on the target.
Thanks, I finally understand the different roles! 😊👍
AFV, Armoured Fighting Vehicle, is any vehicle that is armoured, irrespective of role, weapons fit, or propulsion (tracks or wheels).
An armoured recovery and/or repair vehicle, armoured ambulance, armoured bridge-layer, tank, IFV, APC, SP Gun, armoured car, armoured recce vehicle – are all AFVs.
IFV, Infantry Fighting Vehicle is an armoured vehicle ie an AFV that carries a section/squad of infantry and is provided with a cannon (usually 25-40mm) in a rotating turret. It may be wheeled or tracked but is usually the latter. It may have other weaponry such as a MG, and/or ATGM and it may have firing ports to enable the section to fire personal weapons from inside the vehicle although this is rare these days. Usual to have a 3-man crew (commander, gunner, driver) and 6-7 dismounts – commander likely to dismount to command the dismounts when dismounted! It should never ever be referred to as ‘a tank’!!
[APCs are wheeled or tracked armoured vehicles that carry infantry but do not have a cannon but will have a MG]
Hmmm…so Boxer is definitely an AFV, and at least some variants may be considered an APC? Similarly, Ajax is an AFV, and at least some variants are considered IFVs? 🤔
Some variants of Boxer can also be considered an IFV (Boxer is especially tricky – it can also be a SPH with a 155 or you can fit a 105 tank turret or 120 mortar turret). One problem with precise descriptions – is an APC with a RWS that mounts a 30mm cannon & ATM’s (note it is not a turreted cannon) more or less an IFV than an IFV with a turreted 25mm & no ATM’s?
The definition of IFV is an armoured vehicle that carries an infantry section (squad in US-speak) and mounts a cannon with 360 deg traverse.
Yes, Boxer is an AFV – it is Armoured, it is used in Fighting (combat) environment and is a Vehicle. AFV is the overall umbrella term for all armoured vehicles – it does not state the role or weapons fit of a particular vehicle. So there are subsets or specific descriptions of a role vehicle.
I was REME so my AFVs were armoured repair & recovery vehicles (ARRVs); armoured recovery vehicles (ARVs).
An Infantryman might talk about their section-carrying AFVs as being either APCs (no cannon) or IFVs (with cannon).
The bog-standard Boxer is an APC (armed with a MG, not cannon and carries an infantry section).
Ajax is an AFV as it is Armoured, used in the Fighting environment and is a Vehicle. Ajax is one of a family of vehicles and the vehicle called Ajax is a recce vehicle – variants are variants of a recce vehicle. No variant of Ajax is an IFV as they are recce vehicles and none is configured to carry an infantry section.
Warrior is our current in-service IFV, as it carries a section and has a cannon.
Mea culpa. Batting .500 would be considered acceptable in some leagues. Now understand the nuance in terminology. Thanks! 👌😊
Batting .500? Do you mean Browning .50?
That’s an MG not a cannon, so an infantry carrier with only that is an APC.
Sorry, baseball statistic–forgot the audience.
We are divided by a common language! Someone said that once.
Barrett 500? Pathfinders and SF used/use it.
Hopefully in the future some subs can be added to this list.
It does beg the question, what does Russia still have in the bank, if this was goes on for another year? The majority of MBT losses have been T72s. Followed by T80 and now T64s, with a smattering of T90s.
From looking through Oryx’s feeds and comparing to publicly available Russian Army stocks. Russia still has a load of T80s and T90s that aren’t committed. Which are probably either in the East or near the Baltics. Will they commit these to the war in the Ukraine and leave their borders empty?
There is very little chance that Russia will purchase locally produced tanks from Iran or North Korea. As both of these Countries most modern tanks are based on export versions of the T72. So won’t have the latest composite armour or ERA.
China is the dark horse, they are supposed to be giving Russia UAVs, but could they also “sell” MBTs to Russia? Could we see Chinese Type 96s being used, as they’re a rough equivalent to a T72B3/T80 and have been replaced by the newer Type 99? I doubt China will give them the newer Type 99 which is roughly equivalent to a T90M. As this is China main MBT for its “expeditionary” forces. Which would be used in a Taiwan invasion.
China will expect Russia to stump up funds for military equipment, which will most likely be cheap/free oil and gas. But can they produce and replenish Russia’s war materiel quickly enough?
I think Russia pivoted the war from tank led to an attritional artillery duel due to the unsustainable tank losses they were experiencing. This was due to a combination of Javelin/NLAW and poor tactics and training.
Yes they still have stocks of their more modern MBTs left, but these are guarding Kaliningrad, and Russia’s borders with China and various NATO states. They aren’t going to withdraw them in case a wider conflict does erupt.
I doubt we’ll see situations where Ukraine operated western tanks face-off directly against Russian tanks. Instead Russia will try try to destroy them from the air or with artillery first. In a tank on tank battle, Russian tank losses will only get much worse.
I doubt China will supply MBTs to Russia. It’s possible that under international law that China would be breaking its neutrality status by supplying weapons to the aggressor state. As such it could face sanctions and demands for reparations to rebuild Ukraine after the war is over.
(The supply of drones is a greyer area, as they don’t just serve an offensive purpose. I’m the case of the Iranian drones, I imagine the Russians arm them after they are delivered.)
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Chinese MBTs in Russia! They are going to need them to take Siberia off the Orcs.
The Bear and the Dragon by Tom Clancy was a story about a Chinese land grab in Siberia. This followed the perception that Russia was too weak to stop a Chinese invasion. It would be an interesting twist of fate, if this came true.
Yes depending on what you choose to read/believe, it would appear that the Russians do indeed have large numbers of T90/80/64s uncommitted. Some will undoubtedly be assigned to the various tank units within the regional districts.
However, it seems that a far greater number are in reserve, unable to be utilised due to a chronic lack of maintenance/spares over the past decades (corruption!). As sanctions bite ever more deeply, it seems that it is increasingly unlikely that these assets can be brought into use. Hence the reliance on older T-62s which were apparently better maintained throughout their lives.
It doesn’t appear to leave the Russians with too many options going forward!
Agreed. Not sure how quickly Russia can produce a dumbed down version of a T90. Before the sanctions bit, France provided the optics, thermal sights and fire control for the T90M. They didn’t have anything domestically that was as good as the French kit. So they’d likely need to import it from elsewhere. What’s the chances that they get provided these bits of kit by China? If China can’t give them the materiel up front, you can bet they’ll get stuff through the back door.
I remember seeing a recent video of a tank storage area near Kazakhstan with hundreds of T72s lying in the open. Not one looked like it could be quickly brought back into service though. I’ve also seen a video of the insides of a shed full of T64s which were pristine. Although older, the T64 had better frontal armour than the T72. Though it has a major flaw in its side armour and carousel layout, where the propellent bags are stored vertically in the carousel. There’s a gap between the road wheels and skirt armour. If exploited, makes it easier to hit the carousel from the side.
I think the Russians taking the t62s out of storage is to do with them not having autoloaders so, along with their age, are simpler tank for conscripts to use and maintain.
It is remarkable, horrific even, that the number of Russian dead and injured to date is equivalent or exceeds the amount of personnel that were originally deployed to the border early last year. Basically its entire invasion force has been wiped out.
Yes the losses are staggering.
Last I heard, roughly equivalent to all our losses in the Falklands every 6 hours, every day…
It’s possible that the first thing that Russia runs out of is not tanks, or shells, or bullets, but simply people.
Yeah. There isn’t any military that can absorb losses of 200 000 personnel every year and expect to be combat effective.
Well, if Russia runs out of men, the Chinese have millions more men than they have women to marry them! Of course, Vlad might not want to let millions of Chinese inside his borders.
MoD UK estimate 60k Russains KIA and 140,00 wounded. No numbers on missing/deserted.
Appalling.
Crazy, they will be digging out BTR-152 next
What price on T34/55😄
This probably explains what’s happened to the T34 tank in Peckham, nicked and pressed into service by the Russian army 😏
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mandela_Way_T-34_Tank
That’s probably our resident troll on his way to parliament in it to overthrow our nasty Govt for supplying Ukraine😂
Well it’s ~10km from Peckham to Parliament, so if he’s as speedy as other Russian tank drivers, he might get there sometime 2024…
assuming the turrent doesn’t try to achieve low earth orbit 😆
Where’s Citizen Smith when you need him?
On Youchoob
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4eabA4rz6hU
No, I’m desperatly trying to get the Foxtrot on the Medway back into action to sail up the Thames. With a telegraph pole as a mast lashed to the conning tower and all the easterly winds the crew is optimistic.
A sad attempt at self depreciation and diversion, when the Russkie Black Sea fleet would love to have you do the same for their current batch of irrelevant floating targets. Anyway now your chatting, and as you are not a Russian troll, it would be easy for you to type “Putin is a war making wanker” wouldn’t it………….thats a no then eh troll.
As your name wasn’t mentioned in my post you must be admitting to be a troll then👍
Another example of the ‘modern’ orc kit!
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ukraine-situation-report-russian-tanks-reverting-to-cold-war-thermal-sights
Russia’s equivalent to a snatch land rover.
“elite Russian unit” – that would be the Oxymoron Brigade? 😏
One thought is it’s to China’ advantage to resupply Russia. First, it hastens the slaughter of the Russian military and China shares a long border with Russia which would be vulnerable. Secondly, it uses up NATO supplies and eventually will leave Taiwan more vulnerable. It’s win-win for China:(
It would come at a price, though: Both US and Europe have stated that China supplying weapons/munitions to Russia would be a red line and would initiate a trade war. Question is who have most at stake and if China would consider it worthwhile.
I agree but the sanctions for the Ukraine invasion have not been as successful as forecasted. I don’t know if sanctions are ever that successful. I guess I’m cynical and so tired of the killing on both sides. As an American, I’d sure like to see American manufacturing return to the US or at least to the western hemisphere. That stimulus could do a lot of good in the Americas and even shift some to Africa, denying China its juggernaut economy. Thanks for your thoughts, Randy
Well over $330 billion of Russian assets have been frozen around the world, the Kremlin is certainly unhappy about that. Ukraine is lobbying to have those assets confiscated and used as war reparations for the rebuilding of Ukraine.
Russian aviation is grinding to a halt as they have more and more issues replacing the parts in their Western made jets. They’re cannibalising airliners for parts to keep others going.
Meanwhile military production has slumped because they are unable to source the western parts; eg electronics, that they used.
There are many other examples of how Russia’s economy is being impacted. But sanctions are a slow weapon, they take years to being a nation to its knees.
No doubt their economy is being impacted and as you point out it’s a long-term strategy. But sadly, in the near term, a lot of innocent and naive people are dying. India and China and such are buying cheap oil, and Iran is getting technology. I just hope Ukraine prevails to draw a line so as not to challenge NATO.
China exports most of its high margin goods into EU, UK, US and Nordics.
Cut that off and a large slug of China’s manufacturing economy is looking for something to do.
Can Xi risk that level of unhappy people?
Hi SB,
The risk is that Xi does something stupid. He has been going down the same road that Putin has gone down, giving himself more power and surrounding himself with his supporters. For supporters read yes men… Sound familiar?
If Xi thinks Russia can keep the West looking at Ukraine and keep them running their ammunition reserves down in the short term he may decide that supplying Russia is a good option especially if he thinks he can build up an invasion force for Taiwan.
I read somewhere recently, that the Ukrainians use as much ammunition in a week that the West (including the US) manufactures in a month! I have also seen comments from some quarters that China might be considering going into Taiwan this year! Sorry can’t find the link. Not sure I agree with that view, but I bet its keeping US and Western intelligence people awake at night…
To my mind the time for the West to really get worried is if China sends troops to Russia for ‘joint training’ and or if those Chinese ships that visit the Russian Baltic or Northern Fleets for summer exercises don’t bother going home. China, under Xi, is in a hurry to estabish itself as a global superpower and NATO is in the way.
Cheers CR
Yep, shutting down so much of our manufacturing so it could be done much cheaper in China was a real dumbass move. Feeding the beast that would gladly see the whole world under tyranny.
The issue is it wouldn’t be that straight forward. As has been seen before the majority of people won’t pay more for domestic made goods. Bringing manufacturing back to the west would trigger huge inflation as a result of items costing way more and would likely do more damage than good. Not to mention building factories cost money, who’s going to pay for that, the only way it will happen is if goverment money is used and that means more taxes which again majority of the population is against, even if it means it goes to healthcare etc. It’s an impossible puzzle. Bright side there are countries that are even cheaper than china, so overtime that will distribute the issue more.
Not to mention massive factories don’t get planning permission, built and staffed over night. Even if the money was magically made available and the population willing to pay more for goods (2-3x more I would guess) the factories would still take decades to get setup and upto speed.
New factories have and can be built if financiers see a profit to be made by doing so. The core problem, which you don’t mention, is the cost of energy, a major input cost in all serious manufacturing. The CEO of BP said a few weeks back that he expected the current NG prices in Europe to prevail until the mid 2030s. This situation does not apply to those with long term supply contracts for Russian NG, like the Chinese, who are paying a fraction of our price. This will make those countries even more competitive than they are now.
The ideal sites where our factories were are now shops or housing estates or warehouses distributing mainly imported goods. As you say, we are looking at decades.
Of course, if it was profitable to do so they would be built, but equally they wouldn’t have closed in the first place. Lower costs including employment costs, health and safety, planning controls, environmental controls etc make China a lot cheaper than the west.
Energy costs in china were cheaper pre war anyway, as power stations have less green requirements which make them cheaper to run. Sooner or later China is going to have to deal with the environmental damage they are causing but I’m guessing that won’t be any time soon.
I don’t think so either, mainly due to their rising demand for energy. This means they are still building coal powered plants but increasingly they use gas as pipeline supplies from Russia increase with the second pipeline now operating. Also they are dramatically upping industrial scale solar power, including one site with 4 million panes!
Please see the video I posted above where Prof Sonnenfeld of Yale Business School and his researchers have run a fine comb over Russia’s economy. Germany has built six terminals for LNG inside a year – Prof Sonnenfeld calls this Chinese levels of swift infrastructure building. Problem is, Germany stock piled a lot of natural gas at the top of the market price that has now fallen steeply. But the energy crisis for Germany gleefully predicted by the Kremlin never happened. Many countries worldwide are getting into this new market for LNG. No such market existed at scale before 2015. Russia is making tiny profits selling its oil and gas to China and India who are, of course only too happy to help. There are no pipelines to either country and none could be built quickly (or easily). So the cost of transportation by barge is another slice of the income lost.
So, its army is stymied, chief source of revenue approaching bankruptcy and threat of N.A.T.O. expansion, one of the reasons given by Putin for his ‘special operation’ this time last year, is assured. Please try and given an optimistic gloss to this if you can.
I predict a great deal of expansion of manufacturing will be moved out of China more rapidly than the experts feel is possible.
Wholesale gas and oil prices have dropped back to the same levels as in mid-2021. The only reason that gas prices are still high in Europe is that we are currently burning stored gas that was bought during the price spike.
Around one third of what was bought has been used, and probably another 15-20% will be used by the start of Summer. Once the stored gas has been used, prices will fall, so probably in mid-2024.
Moves to cut energy dependency on other regions will take longer. Lots of wind and tidal power is needed, along with nuclear power and energy storage.
The other issue is that any trade war with china will in essence drive the world economy into the deepest recession we have probably seen in 100 years. We buy 3350 billion dollars of stuff from china that we then sell…if we embargo china and china embargo’s us it’s basically economic Armageddon for everyone…..not saying we may not have to go down that road..but we are quickly heading to a zero sum and then a fall into a very shape and sustained negative sum game in which either the west or China falls a long way or both fall a long way.
What % of that is tat sold on Amazon and EBay that everyone could live without?
Well yes indeed, but that also would include the loss of a huge percentage of semiconductor manufacturing…so almost every industry would be unable to build anything and china supply a huge amount of parts…basically you trash or loss Taiwans industrial infrastructure and loss access to china’s manufacturing the western economies fall through a hole in the ground and possibly don’t resurface for decades. All the time places like India and the South American countries will still be producing stuff.
The problem is geopolitically the west is backing itself/has backed itself into a fork position and if china does decide to risk it both the western options are potentially catastrophic for the western interests..one in a the short term( US china war) and the other in the longer term china takes Taiwan with its industries intact. In fact the only option the west has is to convince china it will go to war and end in a mutual no win option.
Which is why Jo Biden is spending money of semiconductor fab plants.
We are the top chip designers in the UK but do the least fabrication of any G7 – last time I checked.
It is far from impossible to onshore a lot of that as it is quite high value work.
Give it 18 months and that leverage will start to dussapear. Apple has other lines other than Foxconn. Fortunate pluralist is the name of the game taking over from globalisation.
and yet we recently sold one of our semi conductor manufacturers to the Chinese(or tried to at least) .”Free market capitalism” at its finest….
Well it was a Dutch company that itself was owned by the Chinese.
Thankfully it’s now been reversed on national security grounds
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2022/11/16/chinese-takeover-of-biggest-uk-chip-plant-blocked-by-government.html
Yes the only strategy the west can really take now is decoupling from china once to need goes then the west has options.Although this is not likely to be good for the ROC as western dependence on ROC semiconductor production has been their protection. So I think at the same time the west needs to be more supportive of arming the ROC to make it as expensive as possible for china. Best state would be:
The West is no longer dependent on Chinese and ROC production: this would remove the loss loss options at present. It would allow the west to then use the meaningful threat of sanctions against China as a deterrent against military action.
The key question is will china strike before the west digs itself out of the specialisation hole free trade orthodoxy and neoliberalism has dug it into.
I agree globalisation/ free trade orthodoxy has a number of rabbit holes and weaknesses that everyone ignored…and that the comparative advantage leading to specialisation sooner or later dissolves onto disadvantage as it does not model in the opportunity costs around things like geopolitical tension ( not everyone are friends and specialisation can be weaponised) as well as social cohesion issues and environmental damage.
Very much agree the future name of the game for the west is a more pluralist approach to economics….free trade where free trade works ( amongst peer liberal democracies), protectionism when dealing with geopolitical enemies ( with the option of free trade as a carrot for good behaviour) and a mixed approach to the developing world that encourages appropriate growth and development while not trashing the environment or creating the social and geopolitical risks inherent in the neoliberal view of free trade and globalisation.
You’re referring to Arm, whose chipset design is licensed to Apple and is used in its A and M series processors. The Arm design is also used in most Android based phones, embedded systems, etc, etc.
It’s possible to onshore fabrication, but it is a huge financial gamble. Building a fab plant from scratch can cost $15b to $20b (ie approx 4 to 5 Queen Elizabeth class carriers). There’s also the continuing development and upgrade costs as ever smaller dies are required for the fastest/ least-power consuming chips are demanded. A large reason why Intel has stumbled from its leading position was its failure to be able to manufacture 10nm chips in yield volume while other manufactures were able to go to first 8nm and then 5nm.
(Taiwan’s TSMC manufacturers all the chips used by Apple.
Foxconn – a Taiwanese company with factories in China – assembles final products; iPhones, iPads and Macs, for Apple. But Apple has also been moving product assembly to India and Vietnam.)
There are UK niche players other than ARM. In some ways graphics cards are even more important than CPUs.
Yes, Apple is diversifying final assembly.
In the Cold War semiconductors were seen as vital – just as they are now.
Yes there are more specialist niche players like Imagination who are big in graphics – though pivoting more towards AI these days.
But in terms of industry dominance, the success that ARM has achieved is phenomenal.
Graphics cards have only achieved their importance due to the near monoculture of Intel’s x86 CISC architecture. To achieve high computational throughout, programmers are utilising the processors on graphics cards due to the short-comings of Intel x86 chips.
Once you use a modern RISC architecture for your CPU, as Apple now does, the kludge workaround of offloading heavy computational tasks to graphics cards is no-longer necessary.
Now that full-fat Windows is available in Arm processors, there will be a gradual drift away from the Intel architecture as people require both more efficiency and more compute power.
Graphics cards are massively parallel.
So they are great for Fast Fourier Transforms which are essential for real time 3 and 4 D high resolution radar…..
As are Apple’s new CPUs.
It’s only if you’re stuck with Intel’s archaic architecture does parallel processing seem cutting edge. Heck I was doing parallel processing on Transputers back in the late 80’s…
Please don’t mention Fast Fourier Transforms again, brings back nightmares of having to code these at university…
GPU’s still have a role.
It is relatively cheap and scalable.
The M1s and M2s process graphics separately for a reason…..why gum up and therefore have to over spec your expensive power hungry silicon when cheap silicon will do the job?
Only when when you’re lumbered with crap Wintel architecture.
Mx all have multiple CPU and GPU cores all on a single-piece of silicon. All low-powered too by comparison to Intel and GPU cards. And cheaper than some Heath Robinson affair with external GPU cards, all needing their own cooling systems.
I agree. Cheap labour will mean less in the 5th industrial revolution that is coming.
Its a common assumption that China is a major world player in semi manufacturing – its not accurate. Its maybe 10% of WW silicon production today, i.e. diffusion of silicon. Also its most advanced process nodes in mass production are 12/14nm, while the most advanced process nodes in Taiwan, US, Europe are 5/7nm. China has been using Taiwan foundries to produce products at these advanced nodes. Taking Chinese production off the world market would certainly have a significant impact, but mostly in the consumer electronics space.
China does have a significant presence in taking wafers from fabs and then assembling, testing and shipping the individual die, but many other SE Asian countries also do this.
There has been much made of SMIC’s (Chinese fab company) development of a 7nm process node. However, the question is whether its actually viable, meaning does it actually work, let-alone whether it’s commercially viable and that’s a big if, given the struggles Intel has had at its broadly similar 10nm node. If China gets any yield from this process then I would expect the process to be reserved for militarily strategic capabilities first. A major problem China has is that it does not have access to the most advanced tools to produce these advanced nodes efficiently so it is having to use inefficient methods for manufacture.
https://www.semiconductors.org/chinas-share-of-global-chip-sales-now-surpasses-taiwan-closing-in-on-europe-and-japan/
I believe we will see new ventures in neighbouring countries in the Far East. The potential to combine AI and smart production could spell the end for concentrating production in China. Politicians and investors must recognise there is an economic benefit to spreading risk away from a single supplier if only from the domestic security point of view.
It would be a roll of the dice by china, but I can’t see the west putting serious sanctions on Russia, as western economies are already seriously weak and the damage a tit for tat sanction response would do would be devestrating. The question though is what is in it for China to support Russia and is it big enough to roll the dice over. If I was China I would be confident the US would apply non effective sanctions to be seen to do something but stop there, but I would also be confident that they would use it as an excuse for decades to come over why they introduced blocks on any Chinese company competing with US ones.
Correct on all but Taiwan.
It would also use up China’s supplies, and in any way over Taiwan, NATO members, or more importantly, the US, Japan, and Taiwan herself (as NATO are not a global police force), have barely touched the weapons and platforms that would be used.
Except that under international law, it’s been argued that by providing assistance to the aggressor state (Russia) China would be breaking the terms of neutrality to the conflict and could be considered a co-aggressor with Russia. In which case it could face the full gamut of actions that have been imposed against Russia.
That’s a really good point but as the largest (or second largest) economy, I wonder if any of those actions or opinions would make a difference. I’m saddened at all the countries and companies that have continued to trade with Russia (profit before all else). The collapsed Russian economy never materialized and has grown 2%.
The Russian economy has NOT grown. It’s shrunk by at least 2%… if you believe Russia’s own statistics agency which provided the figures reported by western press. Reality is, Putin would have dictated what figures they were allowed to publish.
The Russian economy is not like your average western nature. It’s not diversified and mainly depends on the export of raw materials and arms manufacturing. While they can’t access electronics to manufacture high-end military equipment, they’ve increased the production of shells, bombs, bullets etc.
Maybe, but production is ramping up fast now.
Bear in mind a lot of what has been supplied were older models and inventory that was close to or had expired.
So the stuff coming into inventory is the latest versions and so more effective.
Hopefully each vehicle still has its barbecued crew inside too.
What manner of creature are you ? Your comment is both repulsive and contemptible. I want Russia to lose, get thrown out of Ukraine and forced to pay reparations.
Unfortunately that means a lot of young men and women will die, that’s war, it isn’t pretty, it isn’t glorious it is what happens when old men decide it will.
But to wish someone should die by being burnt alive, you should be ashamed of yourself.
I am minded of a song called “The Green Fields of France” and line from it.
”I hope you died well, I hope you died clean or young Willie McBride was it slow and obscene”.
Stop being so precious, one word: Bucha.
There’s been more massacres than Bucha and if you lived among Russians, you might know they treat death quite differently, they’re scum.
At this point, the Russians there chose to be there, and ignored the many ways they could have learnt about the truth of their ‘special military operation’.
I have to totally agree with you-well said
No sympathy for Russian military personnel inside Ukraine. The excuse of “only following orders” was eviscerated at Nuremberg. There’s plenty examples of Russian soldiers and conscripts fleeing Russia or going into hiding to avoid being sent to Ukraine.
I’m not sure it is so simple.
Being called up fight in an army doesn’t break international law?
Going AWOL in any country is punishable?
I agree fleeing from Russia was widely done but this is now difficult and expensive and they may be reasons such as sick family or other pressure points that prevent this.
I think there is a risk of conflating the actions and orders of the Kremlin and the appalling culture of the Russian military with the minds and lives of the conscripts.
So I want Mad Clad to loose badly and quickly but I am saddened by the massive loss of young lives.
The chain of command is as you describe and the world would be a better place if they were taken out. They are a legitimate military target in war?
Receiving “call up papers” isn’t against international law, but answering that call-up and taking part in an illegal invasion is. Plenty of those who’ve received call-up papers simply haven’t reported to the relevant office and stayed in Russia.
The authorities in Russian are just as incompetent are their military is in Ukraine.
Both the people of Ukraine and the people of Russia are both victims of Putin’s xenophobic nationalism. But the people of Ukrainian are doing something to resist it, whereas the people of Russia are collaborating with it.
Just don’t join Wagner and expect to live, when you’ve decided you’ve had enough. Sledgehammer executions are straight out of the Middle Ages. What next decimation?
I find the whole thing unbelievable really. It is so strange it is hard to wrap your head round.
I would say it is like a Tom Clancy novel but those seem ludicrously tame and realistic compared to this.
Any thought of motivating troops in the usual way is out of the window – probably 6th floor – and so this mediaeval approach.
Like the Romans? 1 in 10………..
Yes, I wouldn’t be surprised to hear that is what they do next to motivate their troops.
I agree war is not nice and 10k’s dead is not to be glorified.
It is not a video game.
I hope Russia folds its weak hand soon to save its young people and let Ukraine regain its rightful borders.
👍
Nowhere is the above more true than in the many videos on Social media from the battlefield which shows small packets (Usually 2 MBTs followed by 2 APCs) rushing forward in the tracks of previous unit moves (easily followed due to the snow) and in the distance is a grave yard of the previous units (usually very close to each other) and instead of the vehicle commander thinking , that’s a death trap up front, I ain’t going down there, I’ll find another way. They rush forward and bang (mine) the other vehicles always well-spaced out, instead of popping smoke and doing something different , continue like lemmings and Bang (mine) talk about utter stupidity or as the article above state raw troops, told to get from A to B, don’t deviate off the tracks the previous lot made, as we know that is clear.
I wouldn’t be surprised to find out that some smart arse has been going out in the dead of night, lay a couple of AT mines in a vehicle rut and get back before dawn in which to listen to the firework display., But what makes this even worse, is that Russia has mine rollers which it can fit to the front of its armour, where are they? Nope it get even worse, there’s a POW who states he was serving on the Varyag (sister ship of the Moskova) as a radiometist (radio op???) and he was taken off and sent west to become tank crew. But at least he’s alive, there a vid going around of a dead Russian been eaten by a cat.
Elite and Russian in the same sentence….nah!
Strange tidings, both my post and your reply have disappeared from thread. In any event, I found the analogy to be quite amusing! 😂😁👍👍
British, Italian and Japanese defence ministers will be meeting mid-March on the sidelines of the Chiba DSEI according to Japanese press. Lot of British, Australian and a few Italian companies going to be exhibiting. In fact when you discount US subsidiaries of UK firms on show I believe there will be more British than US companies exhibiting.
I wonder if Brimstone had anything to do with it.
Mmnn, those smudges appear random shapes & colours. I’m not doubting the story, just it seems we’re given no clear images to verify the article. It could be satallite pics at awful(lack of) resolution, but they prove nor illustrate nothing clear.
Pity the Ukraine most, but I also pity the Rusians being fed into the meat grinder simply for Putin’s lies & delusions. Afraid of anyone who won’t conform to his world view.
You make a very valid point about many photos and videos that come out of this war but in this case they look solid having been heavily discussed back when the event took place just about 3 weeks ago. I’m not sure why it has popped up again now. What it doesn’t show is that many of the vehicles, with track damage due to the minefield, were subsequently recovered by the Russians. That Russian NI unit is still in action there and the Russians have changed strategy, having deployed their 200/240mm heavy mortars to the area.
The number of combat videos from shortly after the unjustified and reckless invasion of the Ukraine by Russia would take a week to go through but all show the same sorry story of cluelessness. If this is winning I would love to see what Russia considers defeat. I spent years interpreting photographs. The image shows burnt out AFV’s huddled together in a pathetic attempt to hide. It matters not who dragged these iron coffins away. Remember your powers of analysis have never lived up to your imagination. You had the Moskva tied up alongside at Sevastopol when she was already at the bottom of the Black Sea with many of her crew with her. Idiocy or cynicism?
Who said it was winning? Not me. I said before that this was a cock-up. They happen in war, always have done but historically without drone footage.
There is not much movement in that area but are you watching the current movements in the area around Bahkmut? If so what is your view on what is happening?
You have an arch way of backing off then proceeding to advance your support for this illegal and savage war.
Thousands are dying is what I think.
Putin can never win is what I think.
N.A.T.O. has had a renaissance is what I think.
Dozens of countries across eastern Europe are coming together as never before is what I think.
Evil is narrow and diminishing. Good is broad and leads to fulfilling life is what I think.
Very small tactical gains, at stupendous loss of men and material, for absolutely zero strategic impact. All to do with your head Nazi Putin having to deal with the other Nazi Pigohzhin (yes it’s spelt as I meant it to be spelt) waiting in the political wings! What’s your opinion on the illegal invasion of Ukraine by Putin? Do we need to go back and cut and paste your past 12 months propaganda and nonsense to remind us all your Nazi agenda?
Not only have you frequently claimed that Russia is winning, you’ve also absurdly claimed that Russia was provoked into attacking Ukraine.
As for around Bakhmut? , well using a doctrine that appears to have been written somewhere between Waterloo and Ypres the Russian military is launching mass casualty human wave attacks for incremental gains around a town that all military experts say has no strategic or tactical significance. In doing this, the Russians are destroying the morale and orbat of their own army. The Ukrainians are successfully exacting a terrible price in men and material from the Russians. Albeit at some considerable cost to themselves. But they are fixing them in position and making any Russian victory pyrrhic at best.
Come the planned Ukrainian counter offensive, just what shape those depleted, demoralised and poorly equipped Russian formations will be in to face motivated, professionally trained and equipped Ukrainian units must be giving some sleepless nights for the few professionally minded Russian commanders that are still left.
Track damage FFS the vast majority were turned into Nazi tin cans and smashed to fuck. And why have the NI units (Nazi Invaders, excellent initials) changed “strategy” its because they are going back to dumb fuckers firing OS dumb ammunition due to increased massive losss of ground combat power! Before you deflect yet another answer, any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet? After a year you still support it?
Ukrainian needs victory across all their country in this war. We don’t need to broadcast too much about what, where and when we’re sending over to them. We hope all of it is put to good use. Final✌️ to 🇺🇦.
Here’s the thing …
Almost all coverage of this war is from the Ukrainian side. We have almost zero insight into Ukrainian losses, Ukrainian manpower challenges, Ukrainian ammunition challenges. Ukrainian corruption problems. Yet these all exist.
More importantly, there is this blind faith on the part of many that Ukraine can just continue to advance and that the Russians have no counter to this. But the reality is that, ultimately, the Russians have escalation dominance; which means they can ultimately escalate to a point where the Ukrainians cannot go. We do not know at what point Russian nuclear use could be triggered, but that point exists. We cannot wish it away. We cannot pretend that then the United States will come swinging in on a rope and retaliate, thereby putting the American population itself at risk.
Avoiding a US-NATO clash is likely the top US objective. General Miley has said as much. That is also likely why the United States is signalling that there may be certain limits to US support for Ukraine. Secretary Blinken, for instance, seemed to suggest that Crimea should be off the table. One can surmize that the US and Ukraine are interacting closely on what the limitations of Ukrainian ambitions should be.
Unless the Russian regime collapses and the Russians just completely surrender, the outcome of this war will not be determined on the battlefield. At some point, there will be a negotiation. All the Western aid is designed to get us to the the point where the Russians view a negotiation as preferable to continuing the war. One hopes that day will come.
The Ukraine has suffered terrible losses in this war, but what is clear is that Russia has suffered disproportionately far larger losses of both men and materiel.
Yes corruption exists, in both Russia and Ukraine. Zelensky’s recent firings of senior figures has been part of a recent crackdown against corruption. The state of Russia’s armed forces is undoubtedly in part due to corruption, however given that dishonestly reaches right up to the head-of-state in that kleptocracy, it’s unlikely to be cleaned up.
People fear the use of nuclear weapons, the most powerful WMD available today. Yet during WW2, there was a constant fear that Nazi German would deploy the most powerful WMD of its day, chemical weapons. Despite developing and stockpiling nerve gases, they were never used by the Nazis against Allied armies or cities.
If Putin were to use a nuclear weapon it’d be a step beyond what even the Nazi’s were prepared to take when their defeat seemed inevitable. And it would be a declaration to the world by Putin that he believed Russia was incapable of defending itself in convention warfare against Ukraine. It would be an admission of conventional-warfare defeat.
Putin had threatened that no measures would be ruled out if the sovereignty of Russia was threatened. What does that cover?
Well Ukranian forces piling over the 2014 border and heading towards Rostov or even Moscow would qualify. Except Ukraine is not going to do that, it has no interest in going beyond its borders.
Does it cover the 4 Ukrainian oblasts that Putin incorporated into Russia after fake referendums? Well if Putin is to be believed these are as much part of Russia as Moscow. However Ukranian forces hold large parts of these oblasts already and he’s not fired a nuke.
Does it cover Crimea? Well if Putin were to lose Crimea then it’s difficult to see how he could survive politically. And like Hitler, Putin appears to entwine his personal survival with his nation’s. So if Crimea were likely to fall to Ukraine then he may be tempted…
More likely Putin is bluffing. Like all bully’s, Putin is a coward who will only confront smaller opponents who he believes he can beat – Chechnya, Georgia, Ukraine. He knows he cannot win against NATO conventionally, and he knows he cannot win a nuclear conflict, so he’ll avoid both.
Once Ukraine has liberated its territory, pushing the remnants of Russia’s military back across the border then it has won. Russia can can keep firing missiles over the border, but Ukraine’s air defences will only get better. The conflict will be frozen, along the existing, recognised, border.
Life in Russia will get worse as it’s economic situation worsens, and internal strife will increase due to the war losses. At some point, a new regime will take-over in Moscow, one that will blame the war and all the suffering from it, on a previous administration. Then there can be a formal cessation of hostilities.
Russia hasn’t needed to escalate to the nuclear level because the war is not at that stage. In fact, whether we like it or not (and obviously we don’t) Russian forces are actually continuing to slowly move forward in the Donbas.
I don’t think it is accurate to state that Russia has suffered disproportionately higher losses in manpower. Russia has a larger population and its manpower problems do not seem to be as acute as those of Ukraine.
Where Russia has suffered is in the loss of high-end equipment and experienced personnel. In the long-term, those two categories seem to favor Ukraine – as a result of Western equipment supplies and the provision of training. The great unknowns are: munition supplies, whether Russia will move to another major mobilization and whether it has the time to reconstitute trained leaders in combat units.
But any Ukrainian offensive is fraught with peril. One, losses are likely to be high; two, if the offensive doesn’t go well, they become vulnerable to Russian counter-attack; and three, no one knows when Putin’s nuclear red line will be reached. Will it be reached at the border of Crimea or will be be reached somewhere in the Donbas?
It is in the US interest never to reach that red line (and I say the US because Europe has no capacity to do anything were Russia to cross that red line (Macron has quite plainly stated French nuclear forces are only for the defence of France for example; British forces face similar limitations). Only the US has a capacity to respond in the face of something like that. I think from the outset, the quiet message we have heard from Washington is that this is an eventuality that must be avoided. One can call it fear, one can say we are “letting Putin bully us”, but this is rhetoric. For serious decision-makers, any nuclear confrontation is a potential global disaster. Full stop.
One can talk about chemical weapons in WWII, but there is no likelihood that chemical use in WWII would have had any impact on the outcome of that conflict and the Germans knew it.
Nuclear weapons are something entirely different and the Russian military has spent decades planning and considering scenarios involving potential nuclear use. That is what I think is omnipresent in US thinking as the war continues.
There’s no such thing as “needing to escalate to the nuclear level”. If it’s done, it’s a choice, an insane militarily unjustifiable choice, but a choice nonetheless.
Nazi Germany made the choice not to use its WMDS. It never felt it “needed” to use nerve gas even as the Red Army surrounded the Fuhrer Bunker.
The use of nukes is NOT inevitable.
The Russians are making slow advances at unsustainable levels of losses. Gaining ground in this way can only be counted as a victory by those with no regard to the value of the human lives lost to take it.
This is Russia’s big push at the start of 2023, yet it crawls along, with waves of Russian soldiers walking to their deaths.
Russian has suffered disproportionately greater losses. Since 2014 Ukrainian forces have been transformed into a NATO trained army. Whereas in Russia, soldiers are still regarded as expendable.
As the attacker, Russia was always likely to take greater losses, but their quite frankly lamentable tactics, non-existent logistics, and lack of training, has only increased these losses further.
Putin’s red-line is around his fat-ass. He’s not going to use nuclear weapons.
NATO has already publicly stated that it would act if Putin were to use a nuclear weapon.
Ukraine has launched offensives on the Russian forces that came from Belarus, those that attempted to take Kharkiv, those that had taken Kherson. In all these cases, their results against Russian forces was astonishing, a rout. Fielding ever more advanced weapons, the risks of the Ukrainians failing in an offensive are diminishing all the time.
Utterly wrong. The reason why Nazi Germany didn’t use chemical weapons in WW2 was because they knew the Allies would respond with chemical weapons.
There is a lot of emotional rhetoric to unpack there but in the end it makes no difference how you (or anyone else) regard the choices Russia chooses to make. The USSR suffered how many dead in WWII vs. German dead? And how many in the Russo-Finnish War vs. the Finns. The Germans and the Finns would have said the same thing about Russian tactics during WWII and in the Winter War; in the end none of that made any difference to the outcomes.
The relevant strategic question is whether Russian tactics (however brutal) will be successful or not. That we don’t know yet. And many factors will go into determining that outcome.
As for escalation, chemical weapons are simply not nuclear weapons. There is an entire organization, doctrine and force structure in all nuclear powers dedicated to their potential employment. That is no less the case in Russia. That force structure has a purpose and it goes beyond “Putin”.
In 1962 the USSR climbed down from a confrontation with the US because risking direct confrontation with the US over Cuba was not seen as justifiable from a Russian national interest point of view. In that part of the world the US clearly had escalation dominance. It is likely that, in the end, the Donbas is viewed by the US in much the same way. Support for Ukraine is very important for the US, but at this point at least it is unlikely to extend to risking a full-on nuclear confrontation.
The Russians likely know that and the Americans know they know it … and the Ukrainians know it too. The Ukrainians will be very aware that there is likely a limit to how far the Americans will go with them, just as there was a limit to how far the Russians were prepared to go with Cuba.
It does not seem that we are at the negotiation point yet and I think that is principally because the two sides positions are too far apart. It is likely that developments on the battlefield, in one direction or the other, will be needed before a basis for negotiation is reached.
What utter nonsense and incoherent in its relevance to the issue.
I think you need to review your own personal value set and ethics if you think the west is so timid. The western democracies have shown time again, from the declaration of war against Nazi Germany to the Cuban missiles crisis, that it will take action when authoritarians behave recklessly on the world stage.
The USA has already declared that only Ukraine can determine when a peace deal can be made. Hopefully Ukraine will stick to its principles, that aggressors should not be able to seize territory from other sovereign nations. If not, then the green light is given for Putin and other autocrats to attack any country they have a whim to.
NATO has already announced that any nuclear action by Russia against Ukraine would result in a response.
Putin is egotistical, arrogant, and with no empathy for his fellow man. But he is not stupid. He is not going to risk the consequences of even a single tactical weapon. NATO knows this too, which is why it is backing Ukraine so definitively.
Your nativity is incredible. Could Churchill and Stalin negotiated with Hitler at the end of WW2? Of course not, this isn’t some 19th century war fought by armies on battlefields away from large civilian populations. This is a war between nation states, and where – in the case of Ukraine – the civilian population has suffered greatly. Not just from the effects of war, but from the systemic committing of war crimes by the Russian military.
The most likely scenario is a rerun of Korea, with Russia’s forces pushed back to the border (or obliterated en route). Unlike Korea, Ukraine’s force will stop there, it has no territorial ambitions. And we’ll have a frozen conflict, until either Putin dies and a successor uses the opportunity to place the blame on him, or until democracy is established in Russia.
I understand that you are likely young and have considerable idealism. You seem to have all the certainty and idealism of youth.
That’s all ok in an academic sense. It just has nothing to do with sound decision-making and preventing a slide into chaos.
If you want to argue morality, the overarching moral imperative in Ukraine is peace. Peace where Ukrainians can live free and where people aren’t being blown to bits.
The ultimate immoral outcome would be a direct nuclear confrontation. Assuming you were in a decision-making position, if that is where your idealism were to lead, then your policy prescription would represent the height of immorality.
Again you are utterly wrong. It’s just that unlike you I haven’t allowed age and experience of life to erode my principles nor make me cynical, nor make me so craven that all I seek is a quiet life at all costs.
You’re short-termist in nature, proposing sticking plaster solutions that simply kick the problem down the road and which ultimately lead to a greater amount of suffering. The overarching moral imperative is a lasting peace, not just for Ukraine, but for everyone. Your proposals would see an unjust temporary peace, that would ultimately see more war in future in both the Ukraine and elsewhere because you sought to appease and reward an aggressor.
If you were in a decision-making position you’d no doubt return from visiting Putin in Moscow and hold up a piece of paper declaring “peace in our time”.
Thankfully the politicians of the West do not appear to have your cowardice and appear prepared to stand-up for what is right, despite Putin’s ridiculous nuclear bluffing. The chances of a direct nuclear confrontation are en par with the chances of you growing a backbone.
Yes, yes Munich … everything is Munich …
It is the height of naivety to believe that there are “definitive solutions” to human conflict. You will sacrifice how many lives “solving” the outrages in Ukraine … only to find that you have created multiple new outrages … like, God forbid, potential nuclear confrontation
Guess which character you might be?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fuxrL8KmtNU
Well I thought Munich would be a metaphor than even you might comprehend it’s so basic and obvious.
There are definitive solutions to human conflict, but not when you allow naked aggression to profit. You’re just setting yourself up for more of the same. Pretty obvious I’d have thought.
No I’m not sacrificing any lives in Ukraine, and neither is Zelensky. His people are backing the resistance to the Russian invasion and willingly fighting to save their country. They understand sometimes you have to fight for what is right.
Me, oh I’m obviously Josey Wales as he’s the guy that believes in doing the right thing, AND gets the pretty girl too, as I usually do 😏
The nuclear sabre rattling goes both ways. If putin decides to push a tactical nuke in Ukraine, who is to say that Ukraine doesn’t then send a dirty bomb back in the other direction. They have plenty of material to do so.
I think at that point NATO will not retaliate nuclear but there will be a lot of pressure to do conventional involvement in Ukraine and even directly in Russia, especially if the fallout blows over Europe as it will.
You can see then massive escalation pressure all over. As a leader of a competing nuclear power do you then have the thinking of he has gone mad so do we do first strike and take them out?
Hopefully doesn’t come to it as it is not too many steps away from all out ww3.
Ukraine wouldn’t retaliate with a dirty bomb or anything similar. Unlike Putin, Zelensky has shown himself to be a man of principle. He’s also shown that he understands PR, and he wouldn’t want to sacrifice the worldwide sense of outrage against Russia and worldwide wave of sympathy towards Ukraine, if it was attacked with a nuke.
The use of a tactical nuke against them would;
• probably ensure those wobbly NATO members, such as Turkey and Hungary, firmed up their support for Ukraine
• probably push those nations that have stayed on the neutral sidelines into supporting Ukraine materially
• most definitely result in NATO intervention, the Secretary General has said so. It wouldn’t be nuclear, and NATO would not want the theatre of operations to expand beyond Ukraine. But Russian forces would suffer worse than anything they have suffered thus far.
Putin knows this, that’s why he won’t do it. And NATO knows that Putin knows this. And Putin knows that NATO knows.
His threats about nuclear weapons aren’t aimed at western generals and politicians, they know the big picture. Rather he’s try to scare Joe Public with the nuclear bogeyman into putting pressure on their elected representatives. (Which is why his trolls on social media are always posting WW3 scare stories.)
Believe you may be correct in an assessment that a negotiated ceasefire may be the least bad option of many potential outcomes, resulting from this unfortunate calamity. Actually, something along the lines of the Korean Conflict, complete w/ a ceasefire agreement and establishment of a demilitarized zone, ultimately observed and/or patrolled, probably by a (very large) UN sanctioned force. Ukraine will eventually be permitted entry into EU, and will ultimately flourish, in a manner similar to SK, over an extended timeframe. Truly unknowable whether UKR is permitted to eventually join NATO under the provisions of a ceasefire, or must remain neutral for an indeterminate period, ala Austria. Russia is essentially relegated to a NK type of role and must be satisfied w/ whatever territorial gain is reaped under ceasefire agreement. No idea when or precisely where border will be drawn, but believe significant additional blood and treasure will be expended by both sides in establishing it. Think in terms of WW I or Korean Conflict timescale. Believe the foreseeable alternative scenarios range from bloody awful to cosmically God-awful. 🤔😳😱
The Russian’s have no chance at all in a war of manoeuvre without a complete restructuring of their forces and doctrine. How soon could that be achieved? I thought so.
Many comments on the equipment are well focused and informative. But there is another side to this and that is the economic. I have recently come across DW News a German channel and listened to this assessment of Russia’s current economy and prospects. The conversation takes a while to pick up but the facts are staggering; not in good way for Russia. The gas and oil situation is particularly interesting. So while the armies slog it out in a re-run of the First World War, the Russian economy that theoretically under pins this effort is, to borrow a well known expression, ‘tanking’.
LINK
Putin was relying on Russia surviving the sanctions by winning the war before Russia ran out of strategic reserves of cash. You say Russia’s economy is tanking, but still it grew by 2% last year. Maybe that is a lag effect and the real collapse is about to happen. I’m hoping so, the more uncomfortable the average Russian peasant is made to feel the more likely the clamour for change and peace will illicit a change of government.
Russia needs to rejoin the international community , once the war is over.
Hello Mr Bell. Prof Sonnedfeld’s detailed analysis is compelling. He asserts that Putin is lying to the I.M.F. and few have twigged this. He and his team of more than 100 analysts have the facts to prove it. In any case I have had serious reservations about the I.M.F. and World Bank’s abilities for many years. Incompetent, not sinister. I do recommend the interview. I didn’t know Germany has built – finished! – six huge plants to take in L.N.G. to replace Putin’s Nordsteam projects (deceased) and that there wasn’t even a world market for the stuff before 2015! Germany is now stuck with huge reserves bought at the top of the market scare last year. As much as it is on the battlefield, Russia’s economic record is deplorable.
“I didn’t know Germany has built – finished! – six huge plants to take in L.N.G. to replace Putin’s Nordsteam projects (deceased)”
Snap! Nor did I, mainly because we thought correctly. The first FSRU was only completed in mid November with a second due about now with the others planned for later this year and next. Confirmed in a Guardian article world/2022/nov/15/germany-completes-construction-floating-lng-terminal-liquefied-natural-gas-energy
The planned FRSU have apparently hit a problem in that their cost seems to have tripled recently due to lack of supply and heavy demand.
Take your points to Prof Sonnenfeld. The Dutch have also waded in building terminals to take LNG. Brilliant engineers the Dutch. The Dutch company Mammoet chopped up another asset of Putin’s navy that also didn’t sink, the Kursk. Seeing a pattern yet?
The bottom line is Germany has not suffered as the Kremlin and you both hoped. The Norwegian gas pipeline also helped of course. As the year proceeds Germany and western Europe will swivel completely towards LNG. Additionally they have learned not to trust Russia. Gain all round.
Agree re the Dutch.
German heavy industry is suffering as the sheer volume of gas coming down the pipelines cannot be replicated by LNG, likely ever. The Norwegian pipeline help is marginal to Germany. The new pipeline from Denmark goes to Poland not Germany. There is no change to the pipelines from Norway, only the diversion of some gas from Western Europe to Poland, not sure how that benefits Germany. It was the West that sanctioned the gas/blew up NS, not Russia refusing to supply.
I trust your information about pipelines – please point to the one from Russia to India or China – as I do about naval matters. If Germany is struggling, hundreds of nations around the world wish they had such good fortune.
You and yours predicted dire consequences and these have not materialised by Spring in western Europe.
The consequences of this policy of bluster and bullying is unprecented co-operation and unity across eastern and western Europe and the desire by formerly neutral countries to have a deeper relationship to N.A.T.O. In short a disaster for the Kremlin that cannot be disguised by human wave attacks or cratering marsh lands.
JIMK wrote:
I read the Guardian, Ive mentioned it a number of times on this board and have received some flack for doing so. So regards that Guardian article you hinted at. I actually read it
https://i.postimg.cc/g2H2KCzk/Opera-Snapshot-2023-02-28-034424-www-theguardian-com.png
and what Germany has actually built are the terminals (Aka Piers with the connecting pipe work into the national gas ring main) .Regards the Floating Storage Regasification Unit (FSRU) Germany hasn’t built one, rather it has hired them, seeing as they are actually converted tankers which take the Frozen sludge that LNG is transported as and safely converts that sludge into gas. The initial plans were to hire six, with plans for a total of 10 by the end of the decade. 2 are already up and running the third arrived (Hoegh Gannet floating storage and regasification unit) on the 20th of jan. and with 2 more to be up and running by the end of this year.
futher to my last:
https://i.postimg.cc/P5fYkzFy/rwe-infographic-floating-lng-terminal.jpg
Thanks for the extra detail.
Oh, you and your facts! 👍
The Russian economy did not grow by 2% last year, it shrank by 2% according to Russia’s own statistical agency… so you can be sure the reality was far worse.
Far far worse. When its broken down what part of Russian economy hasn’t gone down since before the war.
Selected at random. Military production of all types. Agriculture, especially grains.
Yes. You can see the queues for his special exploding tanks from Outer Space.
🤣🤣🤣
Would they be stolen grains by any chance? That’s like saying Swiss banks did well between 1939-45 with a large influx of gold. 😂
Russia has only a few raw materials and these are not unique any longer as the west finds alternatives. Finished goods exports have they very few and obviously there are no takers. My link to the interview with Prof Sonnenfeld of Yale Business School includes details of the exodus of Russian’s with specialist skills – a very significant loss of economic capacity. His army is stuck, his economy is running on fumes and he has no way out that doesn’t involve a funeral or squalid exile in North Korea.
The Russian Battalion Tactical Group (BTG) is a combined arms entity, so they have the structure to prosecute manouevre warfare, but don’t have the training or the leadership.
Indeed, the BTGs were supposed to be independent entities that could manoeuvre to gain ground with support from both Army and Air Force aviation, which when combined in the bigger picture achieved its strategic aim. By combining smaller elements in to a purported combined arms group. They did loads of trials and exercises to prove it worked. Pretty much mimicking lessons learned from the first Gulf War. However, reality has shown that none of these BTGs have used the combined arms approach yet or had significantly displayed the concept of manoeuvre warfare.
I think lot the issues are based on the lack of realistic training and not doing enough of it, with all elements combined. When you compare the type of training we do, all force elements are tested. But it isn’t always with the same red and blue teams. We mix it up along with training with other Countries armies. This gives us I feel a more realistic exercise.
It will be interesting to see how the Ukrainians use the MBTs gifted them. I am hoping they have learnt to combine them with other arms to use them in a more coordinated way.
O/T some good news on UK vehicles. I think I read somewhere that the army are trialling the L119 gun on the Supacat 6 wheeler.
https://www.machinery-market.co.uk/news/34221/Supacat-awarded-multi-million-pound-MoD-contract
I saw no reference to L119 guns being mounted on the new Supacats in this article.
Would be a fair enough idea to move a 105mm gun (instead of towing it) and hopefully the chassis and suspension will take the firing impulse forces. Not enough weight of fire to set against the Orcs.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1607198/special-forces-ministry-of-defence-british-military-mod-supacat
https://continental-defence.com/british-coyote-tsv-will-receive-us-hawkeye-howitzer
Interesting!
Thanks Paul, Article talks of 105mm Light Gun being mounted on Supacat for UKSF, but do they mean light forces in general?
We also need a 155mm gun on a medium/heavy truck, but not as an AS90 replacement – still need a SPG.
Points taken re SPG and truck mounted 155mm. I have not seen any news on those needs.
And I don’t know who exactly the 105mm Supacat is intended for. What I do applaud is the creative thinking making most of the budget.
Come on mate Ajax has not cost anything to fix as no money has been paid until the fix’s where done by the manufacturer’s! You as well as I don’t really know what the problems were only rumours put about by ‘defence’ correspondents who don’t know the difference between a recce vehicle and a tank🙄IF they were the problems you are right in it’s shocking to take so long but again who really knows.
The conversation was about K2 not about CR2 so where you got that from who knows. All these points have been made in various articles on this very site so have a good evening and let’s leave it there👍😄
That was a answer to Nigel don’t know how it got here🤔