In his first Lord Trenchard Memorial Lecture as Chief of the Air Staff, Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sir Rich Knighton emphasised the critical need for the Royal Air Force (RAF) to evolve in response to a rapidly changing global security environment.
Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) on Remembrance Day, ACM Knighton outlined the importance of deterrence and defence, particularly in light of the ongoing challenges in Ukraine.
“The Western World faces the greatest number and the most complex array of threats we have ever seen,” ACM Knighton quoted General David Petraeus, highlighting the growing global risks. He pointed out the significant changes since his last Trenchard Lecture in 2019, citing the return of great power competition, the war in Ukraine, and the resurgence of Russia as key drivers behind the need for the RAF to evolve its capabilities.
ACM Knighton stressed the importance of air power as both a deterrent and a key aspect of defence, noting that “control of the air is vital” in modern warfare, especially as the RAF must now compete with increasingly capable adversaries. He referenced the situation in Ukraine to illustrate how contested airspace can significantly impact military operations.
One of his key points was the need for the RAF to be “match fit” for future conflicts. As he explained, the RAF must evolve to be ready to “fly, fight, and win” both now and in the future. “We need to do more, do it for longer, and ensure we can adapt to new threats,” he said.
“To deter against a costly war, we must build a credible force that our foes fear and our allies value. We cannot do it alone.”
In addressing the future, ACM Knighton pointed to the RAF’s ongoing efforts to upgrade its existing platforms, such as the Typhoon and F-35, and the development of next-generation capabilities like the Global Combat Air Programme (GCAP) and Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACPs).
These new technologies, he stated, will be crucial to countering emerging threats from countries like China and Russia.
The Chief of the Air Staff also acknowledged the vital role of NATO in securing Europe’s airspace and the importance of command and control (C2) in modern air warfare. He spoke of the need for integrated and multinational defence systems to address future security challenges, underscoring that “deterrence matters” more than ever.
In conclusion, ACM Knighton highlighted the necessity for rapid adaptation in the face of evolving threats. While praising the RAF’s current capabilities, he stressed that the service must continue to innovate and remain prepared for the complex challenges ahead.
“We must evolve to deliver more, to do it for longer, and to ensure we can fly, fight and win, today, tomorrow, and together,” ACM Knighton said in his closing remarks, reaffirming the RAF’s commitment to securing the UK’s airspace in an increasingly unpredictable world.
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Having UK F-35B be able to deliver more than just 2x 500lb Paveway IV would be a start. USMC efforts to integrate LRASM/JASSM-ER on their F-35B would be an off the shelf solution.
Plenty of plans to add things to F35B just needs cash and that pesky software we keep talking about! I agree RAF is too small and a buy of 24 Typhoon as well as the next batch of F35B to increase F35B to critical mass is vital. The buy boats are not that much of an issue at £5Bn over 8-10 years. But we do need to get moving and keep moving before the hours racked up our tiny number of fast jet platforms starts to bite T23 style in the mid 2030’s – that is not far away in… Read more »
Buying more Typhoon instead of F-35 would be absurd. A nostalgic whimsy which, by recent accounts, the RAF doesn’t share.
Perhaps, but reality occasionally intrudes upon the best laid dreams ..er…plans of various AFs, if for no other reasons than mundane cost and schedule issues. Hence, USAF acquisition of a (currently) planned 104 F-15EX a/c. 🤔
I’ve seen the RAF have gone on record to state in the near term more F35Bs will be ordered to increase RAFs fighting power….and yet the contract wasn’t signed by the Tories for the much promised extra 27. So I’m hoping the extra 27 aren’t the only additional aircraft the RAF is getting as that will barely, just barely replace Typhoon tranche 1s scrapped.
It’s all smoke and mirrors. Bugger all actual orders and real hardware and real personnel.
Transferring all the F-35 to the Navy would be a better place to start.
Then what fifth gen jet would RAF use?
Typhoon which you have just rubbished above….which RAF rather like in its latest iteration!
I could just see that happening if budgets got fatter and RAF wanted to focus on Tempest from the mid 2030’s.
Unnecessary.
Please give me more money, says Chief of Air Staff.
Obviously doesn’t like what sees coming up in the SDR.
Nobody does
Old picture of Tempest. Pelican look has long gone.
He’s right to belabour the point that deterrence matters. Eventually it’s always about deterrence, acquiessence or war. Each has its own price.
We now have, give or take a few, the smallest number of frontline combat aircraft of any major western nation,. Particularly acute when we consider that we are supposed to be able to equip two carriers if need be. An order for 25/30 Typhoons for the RAF, with improved ECR/SEAD capabilty would rebuild our strength and allow the F35b to be primarily used by the R.N which logically should be our main oversea strike force. Another 10/15 F35’s would allow us to operate four squadrons of 9/10 aircraft. The GCAP is for the RAF so should we be spending on… Read more »
Unless we increase the MASS of the UK Armed Forces with modern working kit then no one will take us serious in future. RN and RAF both need increasing in size with the Army having a far larger reserve force (equal or larger than the full time regulars) that can really make up the numbers when needed. The Air Element of the UK should be the largest in Europe but we are falling further and further behind others who spend a lot less. We are not getting value for money as tax payers.
It’s the old story Angus. No joined up writing anywhere. Too much fragmantation of trying to do everythin but not being prepared to pay for it. Meanwhile the three services, the MOD and respective governments all arguing in different directions. Drives me crazy.
👍
It has never been the plan to operate both carriers at the same time, it has always been to have one operational, one in reserve. In practical terms, we do not have enough escorts, Merlins, F-35s or a spare Astute to form a second carrier strike group. If we get to the total of 74 F-35s that seems to be the target, that will give us 3 squadrons – to be shared between RAF and RN. We are not just acquiring them to equip the Fleet Air Arm, the RAF has air interdiction and close air support duties that would… Read more »
I’m sorry but I’ve explained so many times what could be achieved I really don’t want to do it yet again. Let’s just say I disagree.
It has been the official plan to be able to operate both carriers at once in time of war, just not with both configured as strike carriers. The suggestion was that one carrier would have handled strike while the other covered littoral operations. The second would have only had between 6 and 12 F-35s, plus many rotaries. I recall that prompted a lot of discussion about the wisdom of running a carrier too close to shore and after a while people, certainly ministers, stopped talking about it.
I think that two-carrier idea was just kite-flying by some navy types! The reality remains that there aren’t any spare T45s or T23s or an Astute to protect tthe second carrier, without which it would be too vulnerable to send out on operations.
That position is not going to change over the next decade unless a heap of new money is forthcoming. Even then, there are probably some rather higher defence priorities.
I read the other day they’re thinking of making POW the Drone Carrier.
If the tech matures and we actually bloody well BUY something I could see that.
F35 Merlin on one, UCAV and helis on the other.
Italy which spends far less than the UK on defence has ordered 24 new Typhoons to replace its Tranche 1 models and 95 F35 ( 75A and 20 B ).
This will give them @ 200 front line combat aircraft. GCAP won’t be in service until 2035. It seems obvious that we need a further order of Typhoons even to match this capability over the next decade.
Now Peter….come on. You cannot expect a logical well founded argument to interrupt the dreaming waftiness of those in the top jobs at the MOD or treasury. They will continue to squander what is in fact a large defence budget, continuously wanting more as a percentage of GDP whilst under performing in terms of personnel numbers and hard power.
I agree with your take. Other developed nations like Italy and Germany are buying latest variants of typhoon to bring some attritional reserve, strike power and pad out their armed forces. We should do likewise.
Absolutely.
Italy spends more on conventional procurement than we do. We’ll be spending about £10.6bn on procurement in 24/25 including £3.3bn on defence nuclear, so £7.3bn on conventional defence. Italy will be spending €9.3 bn on defence procurement (or £7.7bn).
It only spent €4bn on procurement in 2021/22 and has increased procurement spending by an extra 130% in 3 years. Imagine if we more than doubled our procurement spend what we could do.
Our procurement isn’t always the most efficient, but we also spend a lot more of our money on other things.
Don’t recognize the 24/5 numbers but you’re right about Italy greatly increasing their procurement over the last three years. They tend to get better vfm on naval construction from state owned manufacturers. For air assets, they obviously pay @ the same price as we do. The big difference in the overall equipment spend is the cost of DNE, forecast to be nearly 40% of equipment costs over the next 10 years.
buying F-35A for the RAF seems the logical solution. its actually cheaper than the typhoon iirc and uses many parts of the B and half of europe will basically be using it as well which helps with logistics. unless tempest offers something completely game changing over the F-35 allowing it to do missions the F-35 cant, then id personally cancel it and use all that money purchasing and upgrading a nice size fleet of the block 4 F-35As.
“buying F-35A for the RAF seems the logical solution.buying F-35A for the RAF seems the logical solution…” Nonsense! For a start the RAF tanker fleet will Not be able to refuel an F-35A, it uses a different type of refueling equipment, than F-35B. Only 15% of parts of an F-35A are compatible with F-35B. The F-35A would need to be more or less permanently forward deployed in an Eastern front-line state to make most use out of them. We might as well give them to the Polish Air Force! The F-35B gives the RAF/FAA much more flexibility where they can… Read more »
The combat air power that the RAF needs to contribute to NATO includes air defence/tac air, nterdiction and close air support, backed by a range of ISTAR, MR/ASW and transport lift assets. We are short in just about all of these areas and there is one critical one where we have nothing at all in the locker – interdiction/strike. This is a key part of winning the air battle, the ability to destroy enemy air bases, depots, communications., bridges, defence manufacturing factories and so on, including enemy follow-on forces. We should have replaced Tornado in this role, instead we have… Read more »
An F-35A could anyway operate from a forward base in Germany and have the combat radius to operate over the Russian border as it stands, without being dependent on mid-air refuelling. Its range will increase considerably with the new engine planned by the USAF.
Where to start though?
Too few P8s
Too few E7s
Too few F35s
Too few trainers
Typhoon fleet should have received the airframe updates
Typhoon still has no AESA radar
Too few pilots
No small tactical transport aircraft
No AShM for the F35
No medium/long range GBAD
That’s been cheerful 🙄 but your right 👍
Let’s face it, the upcoming SDR recommendations will be ignored by HMG. I trust Lord Robertson and his Team will do their due diligence and present a thorough report on what’s needed etc.,. I don’t trust HMG however, who will pat everyone on the back and thank them for all their hard work – only to sweep it under the carpet. We all know – as do the defence chiefs – that there will be no more money from HMG and the Armed Forces will be lucky to keep what they have. At best, it will be ‘Rob Peter to… Read more »
Hope ACM doest get the sack for speaking out 😟 🇬🇧
It might help then if the MOD stop making the RAF smaller both in terms of aircraft and people and weapons
Agreed, however this lot of 6th form clowns we call a Government have increase the defence budget by just enough to refill munition stocks we have donated to Ukraine! Not enough money for defence, not enough political capital in defence and not enough sensible left wingers in the Government to understand defence! Priorities are the RN, then the RAF then the Army, and the Armies being AD and investing in a number of new RA units which include drones both offensive/defensive and OS both barrels and tubes! Cheers.