UK Defence Journal

UK warns of Russian advance and numbers advantage in Ukraine

Written by

George Allison

in

A UK Defence Intelligence update highlights that, while Russia’s advances have been gradual, there is little evidence of substantial progress in recent weeks.

The update on the situation in Ukraine indicates that Russian military forces have been progressively advancing in the eastern part of Ukraine, particularly to the west of Avdiivka.

As of late March 2024, Russian troops have effectively seized control of two strategic villages, Tonenke and Orlivka.

The update reads:

“Russian forces have maintained a gradual advance west of Avdiivka. In late March 2024 they almost certainly took control of two villages – Tonenke and Orlivka – and are continuing to contest others in the area. Russia has continued attacks along several other points on the frontline but has made little progress in recent weeks.

Russia maintains a significant quantitative advantage in the conflict, overmatching Ukraine in munitions and equipment numbers. It is likely recruiting approximately 30,000 additional personnel a month and can highly likely continue to absorb losses and continue attacks aimed at wearing down Ukrainian forces.”

 

 

Comments

10 responses to “UK warns of Russian advance and numbers advantage in Ukraine”

  1. Mark B avatar
    Mark B

    It’s the Russian way. Lose more people and equipment than anyone can even contemplate and then declare it a victory. Ukraine is in my opinion doing well by chipping away at the Russian Black Sea fleet and the Russian Airforce.

    Reply
    1. Michael Hannah avatar
      Michael Hannah

      They desperately need a solution to these glide bombs .

      Reply
      1. Paul T avatar
        Paul T

        They already have it – the problem is the Russians are quite good at locating them and taking them out.

        Reply
        1. Michael Hannah avatar
          Michael Hannah

          If you mean patriot batteries. They only have a handful not enough to cover all the bases and easily saturated .
          As for the Russians. They have got part of one and that was a fluke .
          Best solution is a fighter with meteor missiles .

          Reply
  2. Bringer of facts avatar
    Bringer of facts

    It’s nothing that folks on here who are watching the frontline updates do not already know.

    Russia’s attrition tactics are to keep throwing waves of troops and AFVs at the Ukrainian defenders until the Ukrainians either run out of ammo or have nothing left to defend.

    Paying a high cost for small territorial gain does seem to matter to the Russian high command. I think they are hoping to create a situation where Ukraine has little or no ammo to hold off the wave attacks, at that point they will try a breakthrough.

    Currently, there is another large build-up of Russian troops in the North. it’s looking like the next big push will be toward Kharkiv.

    Reply
    1. Sonik avatar
      Sonik

      I’d agree with all of that, but adding that IMO all the talk about a push towards Kharkiv is just a Russian spin on their inability to defend from the incursions into Belgorod.

      It’s arguably beneficial to Ukraine to widen the front to the north, since this spreads Russia more thinly, and Ukraine has the defenders advantage of much shorter lines for resupply and redeployment by virtue of being inside the circle. That’s why they continue to contest the north more seriously.

      Add to this Ukraine’s recent spectacular success in targeting Russian naval logistics, aviation and domestic fuel supply, and you can see why Putin is so keen to shift the narrative.

      Notable that online bot-farm garbage like ‘Ukraine should give up now’ has massively spiked in the last couple of weeks, which means Putin is feeling the pressure. If the aid bill gets through congress, I think Russia is essentially done. They are throwing everything in now because they know it’s their last shot.

      Reply
      1. Bringer of facts avatar
        Bringer of facts

        What worries me is that Russia going into a war production mode, ramping up 40% GDP to the military. They already have a large industrial capacity.

        I will believe Russia is done when they no longer have the reserves to throw waves of troops and AFV at hard-defended positions and their artillery falls silent.

        Its a war of attrition.

        Reply
  3. Martin avatar
    Martin

    Ukraine can no longer retake the land Russia has, Russia not totally take all it wants. May be peace is the only option i know it easy to say but its just a big body count for not a lot right now.
    Not far of stalemate just now, the west is running out of weapons but could give more Ammo, the Russians are improving tactics not that they great at it but better than they were. Numbers will tell in the end but it will have cost so many more lives for little gain or change.

    Reply
    1. Sonik avatar
      Sonik

      1.2 million arty rounds are on the way, and that’s just for starters. F16 is also on the way, and possibly Mirage 2KD.

      It’s Russia that’s got the problem fast upcoming, which is why they are trying so hard to spread the narrative that Ukraine should give up now.

      Reply
      1. Martin avatar
        Martin

        on the way is not there issued out and ready to use, in pure numbers game Ukraine is out numbered, they will not loose but its a stalemate which likely will see a lot of lives for little ground.

        Reply

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