Ukraine defences unlikely to collapse this year say NATO

Russia is continuing to make incremental gains on parts of the front line but remains short of the conditions needed for a breakthrough, with Ukrainian defences “unlikely” to collapse this year, a senior NATO official told journalists at NATO Headquarters.

Speaking in a background briefing on “The situation in Ukraine” on 11 February, the official said bad weather and favourable Russian force ratios had likely contributed to “modest” gains over the past month, but argued Moscow’s operational effectiveness was constrained by manpower quality, logistics strain and Ukrainian adaptation. “Despite Ukrainian limited reserves and thin defences, the total collapse of Ukrainian defences remains unlikely anytime this year,” the official said.

They said Russian forces were sustaining pressure through extensive use of UAVs and artillery and by employing “attritional tactics”, while achieving only localised advances without decisive results. “Their operational effectiveness is constrained by manpower quality, by logistic strain and adaptation by the opposing forces, which have produced localized gains with no decisive battlefield breakthroughs,” the official said.

The official said Russian forces were continuing to advance in multiple directions toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk, and cited incremental gains on the Pokrovsk, Vuhledar and Zaporizhzhia axes, while noting Ukrainian activity had also reversed some positions. “In recent days, we’ve seen Ukrainian forces take back some settlements there as well,” they said, adding that Ukraine had conducted effective clearance operations in Kupiansk but that Russian infiltration attempts persisted.

The senior NATO official claimed Russia had suffered extremely heavy casualties, describing 2025 as the deadliest year of the war for Moscow. “Almost 400,000 dead and wounded in 2025 alone,” the official said, adding: “Russian total killed and wounded in the war now is around 1.3 million.”

They also provided figures for territorial change, saying Russia likely advanced by roughly 4,700 square kilometres in 2025, compared with about 4,000 square kilometres in 2024, while still failing to achieve strategic objectives. The official said Russia was intensifying an information campaign intended to portray Ukrainian defeat as inevitable, inflating the capture of small villages as major victories in an effort to shape negotiations.

“Small, remote villages… do not equate to strategic breakthroughs that would achieve Russia’s goal of preemptive Ukrainian capitulation anytime soon,” they said.

Looking ahead, the official said the most likely scenario remained continued attritional warfare, with Russia maintaining an advantage on the ground but advancing mainly in less well-defended areas. They also described an expanding Russian air campaign, saying Moscow launched around 55,000 one-way attack UAVs at Ukraine in 2025, a fivefold increase year-on-year, with strikes focused on energy infrastructure and creating what they called a “dire humanitarian situation”.

“Targeting continues to focus on Ukraine’s energy critical infrastructure, which is leading to potentially permanent damage to its energy network,” the official said, citing long daily blackouts in Kyiv and a growing humanitarian caseload.

They said Ukraine was imposing costs on Russia’s strategic depth through strikes on oil and gas infrastructure, ports and so-called shadow fleet vessels, forcing Moscow to adjust air defence priorities and logistics routes. On diplomacy, the official said NATO remained focused on supporting Ukraine in a way that could secure a lasting peace, but argued Russian behaviour pointed in the opposite direction.

“We still see no sign that Russia’s position has changed, or that the Kremlin is willing to make any meaningful concessions,” they said.

On Chinese support, the official said NATO had not seen indications of Beijing providing lethal aid to Russia, but warned that dual-use components and machine tools remained critical to Russia’s war effort. “We don’t see any indications of China providing lethal aid to Russia. But… it’s still dual-use components… it’s still machine tools,” they said.

They also described the loss of Russian access to Starlink as having a “significant” battlefield impact, saying it had put Russian units into a command-and-control “predicament” and contributed to Ukrainian gains in Zaporizhzhia.

Asked about casualty figures, the official later clarified that NATO’s estimate was around 1.3 million Russian casualties since the start of the full-scale invasion, including around 400,000 in 2025, and about 350,000 killed in action. They added that Ukraine’s ability to inflict up to 50,000 Russian casualties per month was “realistic” given current trends.

On intelligence sharing, the official said the United States remained the top contributor within NATO, but that other allies were stepping up, and that allied intelligence sharing was “working really, really well”.