According to the latest UK Defence Intelligence update dated 17 May 2023, the airspace over the Russia-Ukraine border has seen an increase in conflict over the past week.
An incident occurred on 13 May 2023 when four Russian Aerospace Forces (VKS) aircraft, two advanced combat jets and two helicopters, crashed in Russia’s Bryansk region.
It is strongly suggested that these aircraft were shot down, signifying an escalation in the aerial conflict.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 17 May 2023.
Find out more about Defence Intelligence's use of language: https://t.co/cV0mFk5RY0
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/y5MN5K28eL
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) May 17, 2023
On 3 May 2023, Ukraine made a significant advance in the conflict. For the first time, Ukrainian forces successfully shot down a KILLJOY (Kh-47M2 Kinzhal) air-launched ballistic missile. The Defence Intelligence update noted, “Subsequently, Russia has prioritised attempting to neutralise Ukraine’s improved air defence capabilities, but in the process has likely lost several more KILLJOY.”
In an unexpected twist, the KILLJOY system, previously deemed as ‘undefeatable’ by Russian President Vladimir Putin, has demonstrated vulnerabilities.
The Defence Intelligence update noted, “The apparent vulnerability of KILLJOY is likely a surprise and an embarrassment for Russia: Russian President Vladimir Putin has touted the system as undefeatable.”
Make a comment say it was “undefeatable” was just daft TBH
Much like when we called a lightly armoured battlecruiser HMS Invincible 😂
And the Titanic was unsinkable.
Maybe it was just the Russia air defence system that was unable to intercept a killjoy and hubris meant the Russians interpreted that as no one could. So possibly also says something about the vulnerability of Russian IADs ( although it’s stretching it a bit). As the reality is the militaries tend to test there systems against their own and allied systems it can trap them into assumptions..it looks very much like Russia made some big assumptions on their systems being more effective than they are…and conversely the west does seem to have made assumptions that potential enemies had capabilities… Read more »
And meanwhile, NATO is getting tons of valuable real-time info on Russian military ‘capabilities’ (I use the term loosely).
Pretty sure NATO has written off Russia as a threat at this stage. Ok Russia could hit any NATO city as most NATO countries have little to no air defenses (just look at the UK) but outside that they would be demolished in any land war.
Or in the air and sea. Also remembering any air attack on the Uk would need to be made over the sea, therefore AEW then backed up by a handful of type 45 and some CAMM armed frigates as well as the RAF would likely make it pretty hard work…although it would be wise to have some land based IAD components as well….
Seriously little to no air defence? RAF fylingdales, radar sites around the UK. Most of which have been updated. QRA typhoons armed with meteor and asraam. That’s a reasonable ability. What we lack is ground based air defence for critical national infrastructure and defence sites. Would like to see HMG ordering in ground based ASTER 30NTs and land ceptor batteries to provide a reasonable ABMD and cruise missile defence capability. However cost is everything and there is only a low risk. Russia could strike the UK but NATOs response would destroy Russia militarily in very quick order. The Russian military… Read more »
If Russia was going to do a missile attack on the UK, for example in retaliation for weapon supply to Ukraine, it would launch them from subs in the North sea. There would be zero chance to get the typhoons into the air to intercept them before they hit.
I believed they got lot of valuable real time information at the weekend in Kiev when the Russians used a Kinzhal to take out a Patriot system.
Substitute “taken out” for slightly damaged🙄
It didn’t take it out. Was a near miss. Demonstrates why fire and scoot is important even for mobile air defence units. Sending a disposable asset like a drone or cruise missile in to reveal the launcher location for a follow-up hypersonic strike. Probably one of Russia’s few examples of a working strategy seen so far in the war.
Apart from anything else these systems are modular and spread out. Radars and controllers are not colocated with the launchers and resupply is similarly elsewhere, Which bit of the system was damaged is the real question.
Isn’t Putin the Killjoy?
I would say a good use of a killjoy would be to kill Putins joy.
I’ve heard they’re renaming it to “Laughing Stock”?
I read and I believe I alluded to it here somewhere that there had been doubts expressed about these missiles in the military media (as indeed there has been about the Zircon). The missile has its roots in a previous Soviet origin missile and yet has claimed to have been developed in half the time of its forbear despite the claimed extra sophistication. Equally Putin himself a year apart gave very different claims as to the missiles capabilities doubling its claimed speed for example which was already a good bit faster than its original base design despite being essentially the… Read more »
The Kinzhal is a development of the “short” tactical range IskanderM ballistic missile. It is heavier and wider in diameter, though slightly shorter. It is air launched by the Mig-31, as shown in the picture above. From reports I’ve seen, the missile is launched from above 50,000ft. It was supposed to have a range limited by treaty agreement to 500km. But the war in Ukraine has shown this to be false. Whereas Russia claim that Kinzhal has a range closer to 2000km. Based on the Kinzhal stats, Iskander probably has a range between 750 and 1000km. Being launched in thinner… Read more »
As I was saying on here, about a year ago, it would be totally humiliating if Russia’s tactical nucs were rendered ineffective by any NATO system…..it would be the ultimate loss of face.
Indeed it would, but the experience to date in UKraine is that the tactical nuke’s delivery systems are working well when delivering conventional munitions. With what looks to be a stepped up campaign, it seems that several targets are getting hit every night, some very big.
Give it a rest.
I totally believe in free speech and applaud George for not shutting you down.
Sadly in Russia you don’t have free speech…..
But honesty: we all just laugh at your posts.
Yeah he is just a comical nob jockey, who provides the light ent! But still too cowardly to confirm and defend his fascist views.
“Give it a rest”? Was my post wrong?
Why should George ban me? I am basically just putting an alternate view. Trust me, if I stepped out of line I’d be gone.
Love to know what your “we all” claim is based on.
Give it a rest”? Was my post wrong?”
Well yes it was, just more Russian garbage.
“We all is based upon anyone who isn’t a Russian shill.
So the Kalibre and Kh-101/2 successfully attacking targets all over Ukraine for months is is wrong and “Russian garbage”?
So “We all” is a figment of your imagination.
Sometimes I despair at the ignorance and bigotry my comments often generate from a limited number of posters here.
Oh we know that Russian missiles have been attacking Ukrainian targets for months, it’s just that the Russian interpretation of targets is schools, hospitals and housing.
The bigotry and ignorance are embedded in your sneering contempt for Ukraine, the figments of your imagination are laid bare in the debased, noxious Kremlin fiction you rely on.
You really don’t know the meaning of despair. Or of anything else.
” With what looks to be a stepped up campaign, it seems that several targets are getting hit every night, some very big.”
Yeah. Schools, hospitals, apartment complexes, shopping centres, and in a move that sums up just how depraved the Russian mindset is, the hometown of the Ukrainian Eurovision entry.
Some school etc when hit a few days ago creates a 3.4 shock on the Richter Scale.
The Russian strategy seem to have been to not attack military dumps/stores warehouses etc well behind the front lines for several months, creating a false sense of security. Then attack them now, when they are topped up ready for the counter offensive.
Working well? Really? Last few weeks the majority have been intercepted by Patriot systems. You keep lobbing missiles. Ukraine will keep intercepting them. NATO has plenty of GBAD systems we can donate to the brave people of Ukraine facing the Ruskfascists. Care to condemn the illegal invasion of democratic and sovereign Ukraine Johnski? Care to condemn the wholesale use of rape as a weapon of terror? Care to condemn the massed kidnapping and enforced relocation of Ukraine children to your “mother Russia”? Care to condemn the illegal bombing of civilian hospitals, schools and residential premises which by the way constitute… Read more »
Majority intercepted in past few weeks, evidence please?
Ha ha !! The irony of you looking for evidence when you’re an evidence free zone yourself.
There is no evidence that the Iskander’s range is greater than 500km. The increased range of the Kinzhal is down to reducing its fuel burn. Pretty much as you say, due to the Mig-31K (or a Tu-122M3 for a shorter range but three up not just one) lifting it to the thinner air at near 60,000′, launching it at over M2.5 onto a flight path up to even thinner air over 100,000′ in which it cruises till it reaches the target area. This is why the Iskander’s speed of M6-7 is upped on the Kinzhal to M10-12. The control surfaces… Read more »
One of the side effects, albeit a positive one is the discovery by the West that Russian military is absolute wank and we have been worried for many years about fuck all! The only reason we still think the submarine threat is dangerous is due to the fact they Hecht yet been tested against western systems in a kinetic way, and if that was to happen they would go the way of the Russian AF and Army. As for chaff and decoys, that would be you then my little troll. Anyway, any condemnation of this illegal invasion of Ukraine by… Read more »
Hecht? Should say haven’t or in Nazi Russian “havenotski” a bit like they describe their logistics, combined arms training, skill set and professionalism….
You know as much about thrust vectoring, control surfaces and ballistic paths as my dog does.
Correct, but unlike your dog, I can read to gather information from those who do.
You’d be surprised at what my dog can do, he’s an excellent judge of character, something You’d know nothing about. Daveyb is a subject matter expert, watching you trying to explain control surfaces and thrust vectors to him is akin to watching a dolphin at a tree climbing competition.
Well read. Straight off the FSB handlers information page given to you in Ruskfascist Russian to translate into English for us. Yawn.
Facts are they can and are bring intercepted by Patriot which is a 20+ year old GBAD. Means more modern systems like SM3-6, Aster 30NT etc should easily be able to intercept these flying dustbins.
The US is motivated to show that the Patriot was not signifivantly hit by the Kinzhal. Its whole GBAD system strategy depends on it. The ramifications if it was are enormous. Forget the effect on this war but do you really expect the US to voluntarily issue a report that might threaten the reputation of the Patriot?
Denial isn’t a river in Egypt John. Your much vaunted missiles aren’t what you were told they are. Any news on the fate of the Russian ‘scientists ‘ who developed these ‘wonder weapons ‘ and are now being ‘investigated ‘ for treason as the claims they made turned out to be rubbish.
There’s a moral for you there John if you’re wise enough to spot it .
You are doing some serious projecting right there. The ramifications are enormous but for Russia. The Kinzhal was supposed to be this wonder weapon that Putin himself claimed was unstoppable but now he has been made to look like a fool as there is no evidence that they are any more effective than the other soviet era designed weapons.
Could personal embarrassment be the reason that Russian scientist that worked in their hypersonic program have recently been arrested and charged with treason?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/05/17/russia-scientists-treason-hypersonic
With regards to the Iskander’s range, I’m not so sure. Last year Russia attacked the aircraft engine repair facility in Lutsk. There were some reports saying that it was attacked by cruise missiles, whilst there were others saying it was a ballistic missile. Judging by the accuracy, as it was a direct hit, this would have been by a modern missile such as Kalibr or Iskander. If it was Iskander, then it would have had to be launched from Belarus to reach Lutsk. As the nearest Russian border is over 500km away. We know Russia fired missiles from the Gomel… Read more »
Thank you for that constructive answer. Clearly the 500km claimed range was to stay within the now discarded INF rules. I suspect that as Russia was still adhering to them at the time of the Syrian mission(s) you mention, that if it had flown over limit the US would have raised it (as they did with the Iskander-K cruise missile), I can’t remember them doing so. Clearly now the gloves are off Russia could be loading them with foe example new fuel formulations to increase performance. I agree with your conjecture comment, virtually all the information on both rockets out… Read more »
And the faster it is the less manouverable too, the turning radius must be huge.
There’s also a need to able to take out the aircraft launching these things! Hope Ukraine can hit some juicy targets with their Storm Shadows, including ships parked in port and with whatever else they have to hand, some subs.
Sounds very promising. Updated 12:52 AM EDT, Wed May 17, 2023 UK, Netherlands are working to procure F-16 fighters for Ukraine, Downing Street says “Ukraine, which has been saying the fighter jets are essential to defend against Russian missile and drone attacks, welcomed the announcement from the British and Dutch leaders. “We need F-16s, and I am grateful to our allies for their decision to work in this direction, including training our pilots,” said Andriy Yermak, head of the office of President Volodymyr Zelensky. Yermak said Belgium, another NATO ally, in particular, had “confirmed its readiness to train” Ukrainian pilots.… Read more »
I wonder if we might offer to replace Dutch F-16s with the tranche 1 Typhoons soon to go out of service?
I’m guessing donations from NATO allies and the USA as they have the means to replace them. Turkey also operates them I think.
Which countries can produce F-16?
“The F-16 was built under an unusual agreement creating a consortium between the United States and four NATO countries: Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and Norway. These countries jointly produced with the United States an initial 348 F-16s for their air forces.”
LINK
That makes sense, I also forgot about the huge number the US has in storage in Arizona. Makes complete sense to replace like with like.
And a very good opportunity to upgrade them with the latest Block 70/72 if they chose to do that. It still offers plenty of bang for your buck!
LINK
“Lockheed Martin has more than 36 years of weapon integration experience with the F-16 – enabling it to be one of the most versatile multirole fighters ever.
No one else can match this weapons integration experience. In concert with the U.S. Air Force and multiple F-16 Foreign Military Sales customers, Lockheed Martin has certified more than 3,300 carriage and release configurations for greater than 180 weapon and store types.”
https://www.lockheedmartin.com/content/dam/lockheed-martin/aero/photo/f16/F-21HR-Multirole-1920.jpg.pc-adaptive.990.medium.jpg
The US have 3000+ F16s in reserve or air national guard’s units. Plenty to donate to Ukraine. All of the F16s would of course be far superior to 97% of the obviously turd Russian air force.
Not in Russia itself Q. Not using western weapons anyway.
One side says Crimea, the main potential port target area, is in Ukraine, the other Russia.
The UN says Crimea is Ukrainian, Russia can say what it likes.
But I’m sure you knew I meant Russia proper, the landmass east of Ukraine.
Well everyone objective understood of course. Ukraine could perfectly well claim Russia as its own as it was settled by the Rus before virtually any of Russia saw them. Of course Crimea, as indeed the land to the East of it and the Black Sea, now occupied by Russia and called part of Russia, were in fact occupied by other peoples mainly the Tartars ( still being persecuted there, at least those that were not sent to Siberia by Stalin) and the Circassians who were sadly ethnically cleansed, wiped out or forced to emigrate all within the last few hundred… Read more »
Following the emancipation of the Saxon nobles by the Normans following the invasion of 1066. A lot of these Saxon families and warriors went to work for the Byzantines. As a reward for their service, they were given land on an “island” in the Black Sea, this was in fact Crimea. Does that mean the UK has a shout over who owns Crimea?
Crimea is Ukranian territory Johnski. Had you forgotten. The UN convention has already made that declaration. Facts are your fascist nazi armed forces are illegally occupying Ukrainian territory.
Now be a good boy and pack up, ship out, apologise for your fascist empire building tendencies and return to your mud hovvle house in “mother Russia”
These Kinzhal missiles, are these the same missiles that you were boasting about earlier that Nato forces had no counter measure against?? Just wondering.
He read the stat sheets which was about as accurate as Intel’s over the years. The wow factor in either case tends to fade in close proximity or hands on experience. Of course truth is Putin wasn’t expecting to have to use them and reveal the truth. Can’t wait for the first use of the Zircon which has been similarly questioned based on the Kremlins actual own film of testing which shows a missile equally similar in form to a Soviet predecessor and no sign of true hypersonic aerodynamics. After all hypersonic speed has been around since the 60s.
Yes. He drank deeply of that Russian kool aid, forgetting that the laws of physics are immutable, there again, facts have never been his strong point.
Yes they are. Up to the moment of writing this there is no actual evidence, like a wreckage photo etc. This remains a claim, just as the Russian counter claim remains only a claim.
“…only a claim. ” Strange that you’d suddenly become so po faced about ‘claims ‘ when hitherto you’ve seized upon any unsubstantiated Kremlin deflection, propaganda, lies, straw man arguments, non sequiturs, distortions and fiction and gleefully disseminated them here. Nothing you post ever stands up to scrutiny.
Do you still think that the execution of civilians by Russian soldiers in Bucha is ‘just a claim ‘?
I think it’s time for me to go back and cut and paste his previous Nazi nonsense…but ass usual he will ignore the posts and not have the balls to defend his claims! A little bit like your average Russian soldier….
Desperation and nonsense! Very much like the many claims and wreckage photos you have used in the past to justify your random propaganda….would you like me to cut and paste your previous claims? I see you have conveniently ignored my replies and cut and paste posts in the previous thread! Same old same old….
Don’t worry Airborne Johnski is going to be out of contact for a few weeks as he is going on a cruise on the RFS Moskva which never caught on fire and never sank.
😂😂😂👍
Come on now John, stop lying. You know there have been photographic evidence of the wreckage from over a week ago.
Yes but look at that photo again. The item claimed to be a Kinzhal looked nothing like one. The Kinzhal has a long pointed aerodynamic nose, the one presented in Kiev has a short, blunt one, remarkably similar to a Russian bunker buster bomb. It was another Ghost of Kiev type PR claim.
Because that’s not the nose of the missile but actually part of the warhead assembly. I’m no longer able to post pics here for some reason but for you or anybody else that has twitter, please take a look at the thorough explanation of the wreckage and what part of the kinzhal it actually is.
It’s in Russian too so I’m sure you will be able to read it. 😜
https://twitter.com/AndreiBtvt/status/1656414635711508480?s=20
Thanks, but I can’t read it.
They made the same brag about the Pantsir S1 air defence system, yet many of them got knocked out by drones in both Syria and Ukraine.
Tactics and training matter just as much as technical edge, in reality, nothing is 100% undefeatable.
Russian air defences haven’t actually proved to be that bad. Don’t forget that most of the ones Ukraine is using are ex soviet designs and they are proving pretty effective. The war has however proven it’s near on impossible to provide full air defence of a front line, and so there will always be gaps to exploit by both sides.
I guess any “offensive” will be limited. Unless the Ukrainians can create a few gaps in Russia’s “umbrella” they are not going to have any aircover at all. I get the feeling this is going to be a long, drawn out slugfest in trenches like Iran/Iraq was. Even the figures for western kit supplied is very limited, and the types diverse. And be honest, a lot of it is old. And there is the question of continuing US support, Trump could score some points in a campaign about their involvement. And lets be honest, Europe is tired of it anyway.
The question is what is there left to give. UK / Europe has hollowed out their reserve kit over the years and pretty much anything spare has been donated. The US has massive stockpiles but it sees a threat from China and is unlikely to empty them for Ukraine. Russia is equally not able to resupply but it at least is trying to build new stuff, there doesn’t appear to be any indication that the West is willing to build new kit to donate.
I think the indications are that the West is building kit a good bit faster than Russia though ammunition is certainly a problem. Russias ability to build new tanks is it seems sluggish to say the least having been cut off from so many supplied parts, its cruise missiles are pretty much being used coming off the production line now. Where it has the advantage is in the immense storage it has maintained not newly produced stuff. It claimed a while back it had produced some 2000 Armatas by 2022 (yes really) when estimates and indeed the logic that none… Read more »
Difficult to comment on your claims as Russian production figures are classified and estimates are just that. It looks as if they decided that the T-90 was good enough for now and easier to make, hence no more Amarta.
Ha ha ha 😂😆💩 wow you are so blatant in your nonsense it’s like chemical Ali in Iraq! That’s not what has been said by the Russian Nazis previously. The Amarta was a pipe dream, plastic show tank for red square, operated by Jimmy Saville nonce crews, just about able to drive in a straight line down red square! The T90, good enough target for the Ukrainians, which was still crewed by Jim fixed it for them crews! Any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine yet?
T90. Eg the tank with the automatic turret ejection system? Good enough???🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣 That made me laugh. Thanks Johnski I needed to be cheered up.
Steve wrote: “”The question is what is there left to give. UK / Europe has hollowed out their reserve kit over the years and pretty much anything spare has been donated.”” That’s a common train of thought that has been doing the rounds for a while now. What is never mentioned is that NATO countries as a whole not only started increasing arms spending prior to the Russian invasion of the Ukraine last Feb, but since then have started upgrading all their “neglected” weapons systems which since the 1990s have been allowed to atrophy. The vast majority of weapon… Read more »
Well they are being used against junk systems operated by untrained people.
Whereas the Ukranians are very well trained and motivated.
The difference being training and skill set (and an increased amount of western platforms) in regard to the Ukrainians, however no matter the kit, if your people are shit, the whole system will be shit.
So do we know if there is any confirmation (or otherwise) regards the Russians ascertion one knocked out a Patriot Air Defence Unit?
Seems a bit unclear – shall we call it the fog of war? My deduction is that something got damaged in the Patriot Battery after it launched nearly 30+ missiles and I presume exhausted it’s loadout. and that means it did probably hit whatever was incoming before no more misslies.
perhaps this: (12) Lord Bebo on Twitter: “Kiev: Patriot SAM launches about 30 missiles. Part of the Patriot missiles deviated from course. I think you can see a residential building being hit by them. It’s placed in the middle of the dense populated area. -> In the end there’s an explosion at its position. Destroyed https://t.co/G6BaaNWbAC” / Twitter
There are usually multiple batteries connected to command truck which in turn connects to the radar.
So it might be that one battery was hit but that wouldn’t affect the others.
Of course it’s possible that it could have sustained some damage from fall out in an engagement especially if they fired 5 or so at it. But fact is that there are widely spaced numerous elements to a Patriot so only a part could have been damaged, the radar perhaps the most likely as that would be the likely homed in point for an attack.
There are now ‘before’ satellite photos on Twitter of this Patriot battery’s location at Kiev airport, along with with geo-location of where the film was shot from. It was cloudy today so no ‘after’ photo yet. Perhaps tomorrow.
We can also see a before and after photo of the Russian army…..
Is this your information from Russian military satellites by any chance Johnski?😂🤣😂🤣
No, US commercial satellite, no sign of an updated photo probably confirms it.
Slighty off topic but keeping in the frame of air attack and air defences, last night saw a Avro Lancaster fly around the UK (London and former Lincs airbases) in honour of the Dam busters mission which was 80 years ago last night and somebody came up with this short video tweet:
Also arranged to coincide with the revised Bomber Command display at Hendon.
Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.
Its debatable that they shot down a Kinzhal. Kiltshkcho proudly stood next to the wreckage they claimed was the Kinzhal after this shootdown and it was clearly part of a Russian BETAB-500 Concrete Piercing Bomb, looked nothing like a Kinzhal which is based on the Iskander Missile.
CAT-UXO – Betab 500 shp aircraft bomb
That was a claimed shoot down a few days ago, nothing to do with this one. No-one is saying this time that they have a photo of Kinzhal wreckage so you are probably right, it is a claim, nothing more.
Like your UK status….oh and many more previous claims in your pro Russian froth! Should I cut and paste them for all to read and guffaw?
Yes please Airborne. I love a good revision of comrade Johnski’s passed misdemeanors.
Anything that can be devised by a human can be defeated by another superior human. Nothing is undefeatable.
Apart from maybe an AGI that hits the point of singularity.