The large Russian column northwest of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week and is suffering continued losses at the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
The British Ministry of Defence has published the following intelligence update.
- The large Russian column northwest of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week and is suffering continued losses at the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
- There has been a notable decrease in overall Russian air activity over Ukraine in recent days, likely due to the unexpected effectiveness and endurance of Ukrainian Air Defence forces.
- Russia has deployed conscript troops to Ukraine despite previous public assurances from President Putin not to do so. As casualties mount, President Putin will be forced to draw from across the Russian Armed Forces and other sources to replace his losses.
This is the situation on the ground in Ukraine today. It is understood that Ukrainian civilians in occupied areas of Ukraine have also staged mass demonstrations and civil resistance against the Russian military. pic.twitter.com/jtXn9P6DUD
— George Allison (@geoallison) March 10, 2022
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace gave a statement to the House of Commons on Ukraine yesterday, here it is in full.
“With permission, Mr Speaker, I would like to update the House on the situation in Ukraine and Her Majesty’s Government’s support to the Government in Kyiv.
The situation on the ground is grave. As we can recall, on 24 February, forces of the Russian army, unprovoked, crossed into Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Along three main axes, Russian armour has attempted to occupy Ukraine. Its plan was to reach and encircle Kyiv, encircle Ukrainian forces near the border and invade from the south to link up with its forces via Mariupol.
Russian high command committed 65% of its entire land forces, which are indisputably in possession of overwhelming firepower and armour. It is estimated that at the start of the invasion they had between 110 and 120 battalion tactical groups dedicated to the task, compared with approximately 65 in Ukraine. Their missile stocks gave them even greater strength to reach Ukraine at distance. However, what they did not and still do not possess is the moral component so often needed for victory.
After 14 days of the war, according to the Ukrainian general staff, at 6 March, Russian casualties were assessed to include 285 tanks, 985 armoured fighting vehicles, 109 artillery systems, 50 multiple launch rocket systems, 44 aircraft, 48 helicopters and 11,000 soldiers, who have lost their lives needlessly. There are numerous reports of surrenders and desertions by the ever-growingly disillusioned Russian army. To be clear, those are Ukrainian figures; I have to caution the House that we have not verified them by defence intelligence or other means.
I can announce to the House our assessment that, of the initial Russian objectives, only one has been successfully achieved. While Russian forces are in control of Kherson, Melitopol and Berdyansk in southern Ukraine, they currently encircle the cities of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv and Mariupol but are not in control of them. In addition, their first day objective of targeting Ukrainian air defence has failed, preventing total air dominance. The Ukrainian armed forces have put up a strong defence while mobilising the whole population. President Putin’s arrogant assumption that he would be welcomed as a liberator has deservedly crumbled as fast as his troops’ morale.
For our part, the United Kingdom continues to play a leading role in supporting Ukraine. On 17 January, I announced to the House the Government’s intention to supply military aid to the Ukrainian armed forces. The aid took the form of body armour, helmets, boots, ear defenders, ration packs, rangefinders and communication equipment, and for the first time it also included weapons systems. The initial supply was to be 2,000 new light anti-tank weapons (NLAWs), small arms and ammunition.
In response to further acts of aggression by Russia, we have now increased that supply. I can update the House that, as of today, we have delivered 3,615 NLAWs and continue to deliver more. We will shortly be starting the delivery of a small consignment of anti-tank Javelin missiles as well. I want to assure the House that everything we do is bound by the decision to supply defensive systems and is calibrated not to escalate to a strategic level.
Britain was the first European country to supply lethal aid. I was pleased that not long after a military aid donor conference I held on 25 February, many more countries decided to do the same. From right across Europe, the donations came. In particular, I want to highlight the Netherlands, Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Poland, Romania, the Baltic states, Belgium and Slovenia for their leadership, and we should not ignore the significance of the German Government joining us, in a change of stance, and donating such aid.
Donations are not enough; the delivery of aid to the front line is just as important. Here, again, Britain is leading, because alongside Canada, the United States and Sweden, we have invested in building Ukrainian military capacity since 2015, and we find ourselves able to co-ordinate the delivery alongside our partners.
As the conflict intensifies, the Russians are changing their tactics, so the Ukrainians need to, too. We can all see the horrific devastation inflicted on civilian areas by Russian artillery and airstrikes, which have been indiscriminate and murderous. It is therefore vital that Ukraine maintains its ability to fly and to suppress Russian air attack.
To date, the international community has donated more than 900 man-portable air defence missiles and thousands of anti-tank guided weapons of varying types, as well as various small arms. However, the capability needs strengthening, so in response to Ukrainian requests the Government have taken the decision to explore the donation of Starstreak high-velocity, man-portable anti-air missiles. We believe that this system will remain within the definition of defensive weapons, but will allow the Ukrainian forces to better defend their skies. We shall also be increasing supplies of rations, medical equipment, and other non-lethal military aid.
As with any war, the civilian population is suffering horrendous hardships. According to the Ukrainian Minister of Education, 211 schools have been damaged or destroyed, and media footage shows Russian strikes hitting kindergartens. The Chernihiv regional administration reported that the Russian air force was employing FAB-500 unguided bombs against targets in the city, and according to Human Rights Watch, civilians in Mariupol have now been without water and power for almost a week. President Zelenskyy talked of children dying of thirst. Today the estimated number of Ukrainian civilians killed or injured stands at more than 1,000, but the true figure is expected to be much higher, and I am afraid that worse is likely to come. It is for that reason that the UK will increase its funding for Ukraine to £220 million, which includes £120 million of humanitarian aid. That will make the United Kingdom the single biggest bilateral humanitarian donor to Ukraine. We are also supporting humanitarian work with the Polish and Romanian Governments on the borders.
As I said in my last statement, we still believe that it is worth trying to build diplomatic pressure on Russia. This week, my good friend the Prime Minister met the Prime Ministers of Canada, the Netherlands and Poland. He also spoke to the leaders of France, Germany and the United States, and the Prime Ministers of Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The Foreign Secretary is in Washington at the G7, and also attended the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting earlier this month. I myself met the Ukrainian Ambassador just this morning. President Putin should be and can be in no doubt that the international community is united against his actions. It remains strong, and will not back down.
As well as giving direct military support to Ukraine, we continue to bolster our contribution towards NATO’s collective security. NATO Defence Ministers will gather next week in Brussels to discuss the next steps. The UK is doing its bit in giving military support and reassurance to its allies. We are currently supplying significant air power to NATO, including increased air patrols, with both Typhoons and F-35s for NATO air policing. We have also deployed four additional Typhoons to Cyprus to patrol NATO’s eastern border, and have sent an additional 800 troops to Estonia. Over the last week, Apache and Chinook helicopters were involved in exercises in Estonia. Meanwhile, HMS Diamond has sailed to the eastern Mediterranean, HMS Northumberland is taking part in a northern deployment, and HMS Grimsby is in the Norwegian sea supporting NATO mine countermeasures.
On Monday HMS Prince of Wales, RFA Tidesurge and HMS Defender joined HMS Albion and RFA Mounts Bay for Exercise Cold Response, a multinational exercise off the coast of Norway, and HMS Richmond will be exercising with the Joint Expeditionary Force. We have put over 1,000 more British troops on readiness to support humanitarian responses in the bordering countries. Britain’s contribution to NATO is significant and enduring. It is important at this time that, in order to maximise our reassurance and resilience effect, we co-ordinate through NATO and the Supreme Allied Commander Europe.
Few of us will not have been moved by President Zelenskyy’s speech yesterday. His people are fighting for their very survival. His country is united against this aggression, and it is indeed his country’s darkest hour. Yesterday I saw footage of a Russian armoured train, bristling with guns, heading towards Mariupol. A single brave Ukrainian woman ran to the train and shouted “Slava Ukraini”—unmoved, unintimidated by the guns. That woman’s bravery should inspire us all.
I know that many of our constituents, and our colleagues, are fearful of what will happen next. President Putin and the Kremlin continue to threaten countries that offer help to Ukraine. Their military campaign will, I am afraid, become more brutal and more indiscriminate, but it is my firm belief that our strength to stand up to such bullying comes from our alliances. As long as we stand united, both as a House and as the international community, the Kremlin’s threats cannot hurt us. We should take strength from the peoples right across Europe who are standing shoulder to shoulder to protect our values—our freedom, our tolerance, our democracy and our free press. That is our shield.”
Hope those loses are close to accurate, interesting fact I came across yesterday the US Army has roughly 100,000 trucks and the Russians have just 4,000. With logistics this bad and constant attack that convoy is in real danger of getting permanently trapped. Even a highly capable enemy needs a 3 to 1 advantage for Victory and Russias numbers and logistics may just not be up to the task. Every day the Ukrainian army is getting bigger and better armed while Russia strength is dropping.
He still has an arsenal of unsavoury weapons at his disposal- lets hope he doesn’t feel the need to use them.
You never know peace talks may be welcomed by him the longer this goes on – but no-one will trust him, or Russia, again now.
Hi grizzler,
Peace talks are already going on as it appears that the two foreign ministers have met. Two subjects were apparently discussed, evacuation routes and ceasefire.
The Ukrianian minister has reportedly said that the Russian demands are effectively a demand that the Ukrainians surrender unconditionally. Like that is going to happen!
That Russian demand may explain why that Russians are getting so heavy handed. They are hoping to break Ukrainian morale. They should look at how the Germans responded to the utter destruction of their cities in WW2. If not then the fact that resistance is reportedly starting to emerge in occupied cities should be setting alarm bells off in the Moscow.
If the Russian Army is incapable of turning this around, and I despite myself I find that I am beginning to believe the Ukrainians may yet force a stale mate on the Russians, then Putin will need a way out. The trouble is he will need something to show for it, if not… as you say those unsavoury weapons. They US are warning that there may even be a false flag use of them!
Cheers CR
He’s already used thermobaric weapons on civilian areas, so I wouldn’t be suprised to see chemical weapons soon. It’s the Grozny, Aleppo playbook again.
And may that Russian convoy get what’s coming to it! No time for any sympathy for the invaders! Hope Ukrainian forces can take any advantage they have in defending their country and their people!
Hi Quentin,
My reading of the situation is that the only capability that the Ukrianians have of getting at that convoy is by sending ‘raiding teams’ or standing in front of it with AT weapons such as NLAW. They have either lost or are nuturing their airpower for some greater threat..?
Whatever the true situation, it seems that convoy is not about to go up in a massed air assult possibly because it is under the protection of large Russian SAM based in Belarus?
Cheers CR
Three items I saw today, one being the Ukrainian UN representative reading out the series of text messages between a conscript and his mother just before he died?
Then the two groups of Tanks being dispatched by Ukrainian artillery and ATGMs? Both groups appeared to be top and tailed by ATGMs, then finished by Artillery.
Perhaps the Ukrainians are saving that convoy of soft-sided transports for when they have taken enough of the Tanks out?
I read something the other day, which stated that each Russian BTGs comes, fitted with their own support network (Air defence/engineer support/supply etc.) The Russians presuming that this would be all over within days used their supply chain to carry extra ammo instead of fuel and food, the problem was the Ukrainians didn’t capitulate as they were supposed to and they in turn took to targeting the supply chain which was by then bringing up much needed fuel and food which explains the stalled advance and the many instances of looting for food.
The major issue besides their bad logistics generally is that they stripped all the BTG’s out of different brigades and then sent them all as individual units in to Ukraine so they are missing all the logistics and coordination provided by brigade, divisional and corps levels. They also appear to be incapable of moving more than 50 miles from a rail head.
As a novice/intetested civvie how does that equate to our our army is set up?
or is that a sore point on here ?
Daniele should be along in a moment to educate you.
😆
Welcome Grizzler – Mate, you’ve come to the right place!
Don’t foget the poor condition of many of these vehicles as a factor as well. Poor maintenance of Russia’s military equipment is a known issue. When you leave a military truck in one place for months on end, the tyre side walls rot / get brittle such that using low pressure setting for any appreciable distance will cause the tyres to fail catastrophically. Lot of evidence of just that in photos. Also you tend to need to drive these vehicles at least once a month as a minimum, then check out parts like tyres, battery condition and oil levels. It looks like they’ve taken potentially quite a lot of kit out of long term storage. It hasn’t been well looked after. And in particular it looks like they’re struggling to drive it off road. With many Russian troops now clearly proven to be conscripts I expect many only have the very basic level of training, let alone thorough knowledge of driving and maintaining these type of heavy vehicles.
good observation Martin. look at ww2 truck production:
Russia 200,000
USA 4,000,000
They say the T34 and katyusha won the war for Russia. I say it was the jeep and Studebaker 2,5 truck.
Thanks to lend lease.
It will be interesting to see how things unfold if/when the Ukraine Armed Forces take the initiative/offensive. Would they stop at the pre-invasion borders of Crimea and Donetsk? Or will they push on and retake those regions?
The post from George is the first indication of ‘civil resistance’ in occupied cities which I take to mean armed resistance by civilians. If this is that case, then it is pretty quick of the mark given that the occupied cities have only been in Russian hands for a few hands for a few days.
The other thing is that convoy is ‘still stalled’! It has been there for a long time, given it is so close to the frontline in a war zone. So much so that I noted yesterday that it is no longer even being mentioned in the news!
The Ukrianians are claiming 11,000 Russian troops killed which sounded too high when I first read it yesterday (previous article), but George is now reporting that Russian conscripts are now been deployed suggesting two things, a) they are indeed suffering heavy losses possibly closer to the claimed numbers than many in the west, including me, had thought, b) notwithstanding their losses the Russians need to reinforce their forces to create sufficient weight, possibly significantly above the weight they started with, to regain the initiative.
If they are indeed looking to replace losses AND increase their weight above starting levels it will represent a significant watering down of ‘quality’, so I would expect to see their casualty rate rise even further. Remember those troops who started this campaign spent months training for this. The replacements are conscripts and will not have had the pre-deployment training. They are in for a shock it seems.
Cheers CR
Conscripts have been there since day one. Many of the captured soldiers have been conscripts with a common theme of they thought they were going on an exercise not to fight. They haven’t spent months training.
Hi Marked,
Fair enough, but my basic point still holds. This represents a watering down of the quality of the forces deployed. The situation is only going to get worse for the Russian Army.
I think they should have assumed stiff resistance and planned accordingly. Instead they planned fo rthe best and hoped for the best. That is what politicians do, it should not be what trained soldiers do unless they are feed with missleading intel and have politicians directly meddling in their planning processes.
This is definately a cluster f**k and it looks like it could, possibly, get mush worse for the Russians. Frankly, whilst I am definately willing the Ukrainians on, I feel for the Russian soldiers.
Cheers CR
I agree, but hopefully the more Russian conscripts that get involved means more Russian families wondering where their loved ones are, and that means more Russian people wondering why their news channels are broadcasting such blatant lies about the events in Ukraine and start demanding the truth from the government.
Russian State TV telling the truth, you’re have too wait until A the 12th of Never or B when He’ll freezes over Just hope Putins wears his thermal Underwear After watching Lavrov Speak that the Maternity Hospital was infact a base for Nationalist forces and no women or children were in the Hospital was Proof that the truth is beyond the grasp of the Russian state Christopher
And start asking exactly why they have to queue hours for the ATM, the local McDonalds has shut, they can no longer buy delicious food, can’t buy the new iPadAir, can’t get Netflix and they can no longer pay by PayPal… Can’t blame it all on NATO threats… or some sort of Ukrainian neo-Nazi conspiracy. I even read that Lada has stopped production. At some point the Russian population is going to wake up and smell the coffee (not Starbucks obviously…)
The text the Ukrainian Ambassador to the UN read out last week has now been “3rd party verified”. The average Russian soldier was completely ignorant of why thery are there.
Mum: “Alyosha, how are you doing? Why has it been so long since you responded? Are you really in training exercises?”
Soldier: “Mama, I’m no longer in Crimea. I’m not in training sessions.”
Mum: “Where are you then? Papa is asking whether I can send you a parcel.”
Soldier: “What kind of parcel mama, can you send me?”
Mum: “What are you talking about, what happened?”
Soldier: “Mama, I’m in Ukraine. There is a real war raging here. I’m afraid. We are bombing all of the cities together, even targeting civilians. We were told that they would welcome us and they are falling under our armoured vehicles, throwing themselves under the wheels and not allowing us to pass. They call us fascists. Mama, this is so hard.”
He was killed before he could send any more messages.
Now, this could still be propaganda, but US news outlets have reported its authenticity. Personally, I remain sceptical.
They have gone in on some bizarre assumption they would have little resistance.
The russians haven’t even really got pulled into a full on urban fight yet. When they push on kyiv it will get very messy for them, it’ll be a defenders war where their heavily armored focused units will be ambushed from all sides.
Ukraine have approached this well. They soon scrapped operating in large formations which could not match the russians in size and firepower. Operating in small units, ambushing where able and fighting to their own strengths is proving bloody effective.
I can’t see a quick end coming up unfortunately, this is going to be a long war of attrition. Attrition of morale and civilian support as much as combat units.
I wonder if Putin underestimated civilian resistance because he’s had so little from his own population during his 22 year long despotic reign.
Good observations CR. I spent a few years in the SAAF Ops and Intel in the cold war 80’s. My overriding memory of the Soviet army was unfavorable. Not so much around their gear , but that their doctrine and co- ordination was poor and their logistics pitiful.
I thought this was part propaganda on our part – look how great we are (and to be fair we were) and being a typical 20 year old “know it all” I was skeptical. Fast forward to 1988 and we see the Soviets’ leaving Afghanistan with their tails between their legs
I think your military appraisal of the current situation is eloquently prefect- “a cluster f**k”
Airborne posted some interesting points re the Russian national servicemen press ganged into this debacle. Doubtful if they are:
adequately trained
poorly equipped
are really up for this
Thx Marked. Yep, I did read Airborne’s comments with much interest.
This is all totally messy at a human level.
I hope all of the convoy vehicles are for the scrap yard pronto. But I do also hope that some of those conscripts can be simply POW – they are not professional soldiers and their lives should be spared as much as possible.
That said I think the Ukrainian tactics of blowing up a road block at the front and then blowing up the back so bottling the convoy on the main road and then blowing the bridges/culverts on the side roads has worked.
As far as I can figure out the Ukrainians are then just giving the convoy a good thumping whenever there looks like a break out and to keep a reasonable attrition rate going. None of that kit is going anywhere fast, most of the convoy will be out of fuel with flat batteries so why waste too much effort on it?
I totally disagree. I want to see as many RusMil WIA as possible, returned their family, and questions start being asked.
POWs create internal issues such as guarding, feeding, housing and… the press.
Of course, none of us was ever taught to wound and I can’t imagineit is easy, but, wound the buggers and let them be picked up by their mates.
Meanwhile, I heard that Russia is prepping for an nBC attack on some of the cities; Obama infamously redrew red lines, but, that has to provoke the international community to become involved if true; it’s never been right to target civillians but with BC attacks, it is barbaric.
Then I have to respectfully disagree.
Preservation of human life, where possible, is a part of the proper professional conduct of war.
Turkey shoots will only hand a propaganda advantage to Moscow.
But I do agree the message has to get across to the Russian public.
Unfortunately the West German chancellors open comments about gas supply have embolden Putin to play with the gas taps.
And more unfortunately the NATO MiG fiasco has also revealed too much of BATO’s red line which should have been left nice and vague.
I did write WIA – wounded in action, because if we believe the KIA stories, their youngsters are being cremated.
As to the MIGs, Poland blinked and so did the US. Carmela Harris was noticable in choking on her emotions during the speech with the Polish leader.
And yet, Ukraine needs air power and MIG29s might be the only way.
So question, do the US administration take Putin’s threats seriously? They are deranged.
Interesting topic.
Reminds me of the debacle .during WW2 where planes bought and paid for by Britain and manufactured in neutral America had to be towed by horses and tractors over the border to Canada…
Interesting story that!
Please hope ‘6’ are reading this.
Agreed, it’s pretty much ineffective and simply serves as occasional target practice for the Ukrainians.
According to Janes, Russia is now moving additional forces from its east military district towards Ukraine.
Could the US, Japan and Canada help by hosting large military drills in Alaska – enough to worry Russia into keeping a significant number of forces in the far east?
Column approaching Kyiv from the east ambushed.
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1501836288319762436?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Eembeddedtimeline%7Ctwterm%5Eprofile%3AGabriel64869839%7Ctwgr%5EeyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NrZWxldG9uX2xvYWRpbmdfMTMzOTgiOnsiYnVja2V0IjoiY3RhIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH0sInRmd19zcGFjZV9jYXJkIjp7ImJ1Y2tldCI6Im9mZiIsInZlcnNpb24iOm51bGx9fQ%3D%3D&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fukarmedforcescommentary.blogspot.com%2F
That’s good to hear that they have been ambushing them, it would’ve been insane for them not to.
Excellent link Daniele, keep them coming!
What’s interesting is the last few seconds appears to show armour crossing fields is the ground firming up ?
If you are desperate you might risk it?
It might work in the better drained areas?
Remember the Ukrainians have deliberately messed up the drainage to keep things nice and soggy.
A tank stuck in a field is also mission killed…..
Yes, I noted that too.
A few days ago they were reporting a big drop in temperatures, so I would assume in those areas the ground would have hardened.
The Ukrainians have made a song about the Turkish-made killer drones that are decimating Russian convoys. Bayraktar!
Bit of an earworm once heard a few times… 🙂
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7E1SMo-Fzc&t=214s
Now I’ve viewed that I cannot get the tune out of my head. 🤔🙄
I’d love to see a squadron of Ukrainian anti-tank helos rip through that long column of vehicles …. akin to the Iraqi exodus from Kuwait city at the end of GW1. Not sure if they have any but also not sure if the fear of a few S400s nearby would make that a one-way mission? The encircled areas to the north of Ukraine are a worry.
Find the ammo and fuel trucks … hit them first
Exactly.
Mission kill the column by running it dry of diesel.
Then take out its AA cover
Then mission kill it again by running it out of ammunition by blowing the ammo trucks.
Then put a few groups of Javelin or NLAW into groups of heavy vehicles close to anywhere there is a junction so nobody can move anywhere.
Then leave Father Time to do his job as they will run out of food…..
Hi SB. Don’t worry – the Russians seem to be doing an excellent job all by themselves, denying proper log capacity.
Self sabotage appears to be their primary skill set?
I just wish we could help them take out the artillery that is firing into towns.
Solider -> soldier I can live with.
Soldier -> civilian I’m struggling with us standing by.
Hitting hospitals is the pits.
Cheers SB , bloody tradegy, the entire shameful affair.
and command and control vics
I would if I could find them. It appears the Russian forces forget to add them to the shopping list.
The Russian general staff view on logistics: “that’s for woke westerns armies, we Russian don’t need that”
I Saw and walked along the Basra Rd after the Yanks had decimated the fleeing Iraqis and their stolen booty Carnage indescribable ,you could also get pictures of deceased drivers sitting charred in their cabs with a lit Marlborough stuck in their mouth At least our hands were clean of that Destruction DP
I can’t even begin to imagine the horrors you saw Tommo, no-one should ever have to see that. Good men and women caught up in what was (and currently is) a egotistical mad man’s dillusions. Destroy the hardware and sent the troops packing, back to where they came from.
We were given the tour ,after we had cleared the port of As,shridar, So Sx of us with some yanks had a gander round Iraqis destroyed Tank division ,turrets all over the place was informed by our American friends not too chamber in or over the hulls as they had been hit with Spent uranium Rds Everynight the jubilant Kuwaitis would for hours just keep firing small arms up into the night sky God knows if any one got a round in the top of their skull We were Navy 321.1 so this was well out of our normal parameters for WAR , It must of been quick but brutal for those Legging it on the Basra Rd I declined getting any Photos DP
Understatement but that sounds pretty grim! Pardon my ignorance but what was/is Navy 321.1?
FOR OP Granby The Royal Navy task force was Assigned the number 321.1 the Yanks called the op Desert Shield/Desert Storm us Brits Called it OP Granby DP
Yes, it is very grim but they were armed combatants.
It gives a fair idea what BATO would do faster this time round to the Russian scrap heaps.
I agree in an ideal world you shoot out the lead and rear group of vehicles, take out AA and cause enough noise that everyone feels safer out of the vehicle.
War isn’t like that: it is messy and you have to act to maintain momentum and advantage of pace.
glad you made it back Tommo! You contributed to a great thing and I’m sure the Kuwaitis do not forget this.
Cheers Klonkie shame we couldn’t keep the price of Oil down though
stay safe Mate!
👍 will do Klonkie
It is staggering just how incompetent the Russian military leadership is. Logistics and supply lines have been key aspects of any continuous military offensive going back thousands of years, and it seems they are still stuck in their WWI and WWII mindset of using overwhelming numbers instead of trained and competent troops.
I would say the image that Russia has been trying to portray, its military as being a sizeable and competent military force with modernised weapons systems capable of overwhelming Europe, has been the biggest casualty of this war for the Russians. The fact they had to bring in Cechens and Syrian mercenaries doesn’t do them any favours either.
Thats an interesting point – If the Cechens and/or Syrians are not the same religious denomination (and I will assume at least Syrians won’t be) but Russians and Ukrainians are (Orthodox maybe?) .
How will the Russian troops (and civilians) take to acceptance of any suggestion of any religious connotation in the conflict.
I suspect the Syrian mercenaries are just Syrian troops Assad has lent as “thank you” for keeping him in power.
I wonder if the “Syrian troops” speak Persian?
Yep, as far back as Alexander the Great, succesful commanders knew the importance of logistics in war. In a quote attributed to Alexander: “My logisticians are a humorless lot. They know they are the first ones I will slay if my campaign fails.”
Putin believed his own hype, that Russia was a great power. He spread his forces too thin. If he had just concentrated on getting the canal for Crimea & a bit more land in Donbas, he would have had his lightning victory. Instead he has a spread out mess of his own making.
Hi CA. Whilst I completely agree with your assessment, there is another element to consider. In WW2 Russians were justifiably fighting for survival against a truly evil transgressor.
This situation is very different. I wonder how the average 20 year old conscripts feels about tis and equally important their parents? Just wait until these parents start burying their young sons.
The wiki entry for the Hawk mentions it can carry Asraam and a PGB missile called Umbani ( which I’ve never heard of) in addition to an Aden cannon pod. Is there any mileage in thinking of supplying Ukraine with ex RAF Hawks?
No !
Ah well, nothing ventured nothing gained as they say.
Ukraine needs old Soviet kit, that they know how to use.
Yeh, clutching at straws. I could see the logic of the Mig 29 deal that fell through. Somehow if Ukraine cannot relieve the artillery bombardment of Mariupol they must inflict punishment on fixed Russian positions. The static Kyiv column looks favourite. I know they are carrying out ambushes with what they have but
just a handful of their existing MIGs upgraded to deliver PGMs would be very handy for both jobs.
That’s an idea however is any of the equipment/parts required available? The other problem is that Hawk Mk1s are subsonic, however, if air supremacy remains how it is, this shouldn’t be a problem, and this is a type the Ukrainians haven’t flown or have the maintenance requirements for them.
Per my reply to JH I was just scrabbling around looking for any avenue that might give Ukraine a PGM capability. The Starstreaks should help reduce the damage caused by air strikes but artillery bombardment is a problem for the functioning of city life. Ukraine do need kit they can use straight away with minimal training.
Some sort of anti ship missile would be good for Odessa. You can fire Martlet from the Starstreak launchers I think. Small warhead but better than nothing. Good enough to hit the bridge of a ship or cripple a landing craft.
The recent events only proves that the ongoing issues between Russia and NATO about enlargement in eastern Europe, has taken a sinister turn, especially when it effects the countries around them, it can be said that Putin is trying to resurrect the old iron curtain that will shroud Moldova, Georgia and now Ukraine given half the opportunity. Russia’s new buddies – Belarus who acted as a shady partner in crime during the invasion and China who is acting more like a sleeping partner to help Russia financially and to abstain at the UN Security Council voting session when necessary.
The way that Putin has pushed the Russian army into battle, with so called contract Russian soldiers (green conscripts more like), and that they also have not properly planned for the use of its logistic support for such a large force, especially when tanks are running out of diesel on the side of the road, it only proves that they will fail to achieve their objectives without receiving heavy casualties from a well organised Ukrainian defence.
Peace negotiations need to start with more purpose, before Putin becomes so desperate, that he will do something stupid by involving – (chemical or nuclear weapons), just to save face and to prove how barbaric his dreams of a new USSR will be like to counter NATO, all at the expense of Ukraine’s freedom.
Personally, the negotiations that started on the (28th February), would have been better placed in Helsinki, Finland as a neutral venue for all concerned, also NATO should have been involved in some capacity at the talks. The negotiations should be the basis for resolving all issues that covers European security.
*To call for a ceasefire to be implemented 24hrs from when all signatories have signed a peace document, no surrender document to be considered at all, Ukraine should remain a sovereign country free from all external pressures.
*Whilst negotiations are further conducted to the next stage, Moldova and Georgia need to be included along with NATO – to set in stone long-term guidelines for all participating nations and organisations to comply with.
starting with:
*Russian and Belarus ground forces to withdraw from all Ukraine territorial regions, that includes the Donbas region and the Crimean Peninsula.
*NATO to stop its enlargement activities with immediate effect, and keep membership at thirty countries in the alliance.
*Russia to withdraw its land forces from Moldova and Georgia.
*NATO to reduce its forward presence in Eastern Europe, (to reduce tensions), Russia to do the same, by reducing its Ground Forces in the western and southern command areas and relocate them to central and eastern command areas, all decisions to be put into a new Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) and to be overseen by the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE).
I doubt Finland would be happy in hosting them given what Putin has alluded to in that relationship recently.
“Look what happened to them…it could happen to you”.
Hhe would love that sort of subliminal underlying message.
Hi grizzler, the main reason for suggesting Finland is that it has always been central to some of the most important peace talks in modern history, prime among-est them was all the START talks during the cold war, that brought the leaders from America and the Soviet Union together, the same needs to happen again to bring down barriers between nations and to resolve all issues that currently plague the European continent. Who knows what the future holds only time can judge.
“China who is acting more like a sleeping partner to help Russia financially and to abstain at the UN Security Council voting session when necessary”. I completely agree. We’re seriously naive about this. And the large western corporations are only too happy to cosy up the the CCP. This is something that needs to be looked at.
The long-held ambitions that are driven by Russia and China will only fuel potentially more dangerous problems in the future, especially in Asia with China trying to dominate the south china sea and Russia trying to regain a new superpower status that brings most of the former USSR nations back under its control given half the opportunity. All it spells out is more highly charged confrontational clashes with America that will draw other nations into the mix, It needs the United Nations step up and to modernize before its all too late, and to layout a future direction that all countries need to move towards.
I don’t think that would be viable.
Much of it was in place in the 1994 agreement, and Putin simply declared “things has changed and it does not apply anymore” when he wanted to attack Ukraine.
It won’t happen in that style while Putin is still in power in Russia, unless he is President Emeritus whilst actually embalmed next to Vladimir Ilyich, or perhaps has an utterly bloody nose with half his armed forces destroyed.
But if it were to go into Europe wide agreements, then demilitarisation of Kaliningrad should be on the table.
Hi Matt,
The the original Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), was the basis for re-balancing the huge engagement of military personnel and equipment that was held during the closing stages of the cold war, the funny thing was that when the signatures were drying on the treaty, NATO went on a charm offensive to enlarge the alliance with former Warsaw Pact countries. So it was understandable that Russia took offence over the tactics, their response unfortunately was land grabbing in Moldova (1992), Georgia (2008) and now Ukraine from (2014). The only way that long-term peace can exist is for all the countries and NATO to come together to draw up a new treaty, that needs to redraw the military landscape with reductions in personnel and equipment in Eastern Europe to begin with.
I have just finished reading “13 Days” by Robert Kennedy. His inside take on the Cuban missile crisis. I think both sides wanted to avoid WW3. The US blockade was the soft option. Many in US military wanted a surprise air attack on Cuban missile sites. Kennedy said that went against American values & would isolate it from World opinion. So he went for the naval blockade. The USN wanted it at 800 miles. The UK ambassador pointed out that would leave no time for diplomacy before Russian ships arrived, so Kennedy settled for 500 miles. Interestingly, the Russians lied through their teeth that there were no missiles or missile sites in Cuba, even when shown aerial photos. The message from 1963, is that the West needs to call out Russian bad actions, but do so in a calm, resolute way that does not escalate out of control. The public offer of some deal, that lets Russia withdraw without the West crowing about it. Russia should not gain from its aggression, but neither should it be humiliated. Russia should compensate Ukraine for the damage, with cheap oil & gas. Contested regions should have an internationally regulated referendum on which country they want to be in. Putin should retire to his palace in Sochi. Ukraine can join the EU, but NATO membership gets put back a few years, as long as Russia respects Ukraine territory.
Hi John,
I can understand the similarities with the Cuban missile crisis and the other events that shaped the cold war the first time around. Since 1989 Europe and Russia have failed to move on and develop a common European Security plan that should have encompassed all concerns at the time, unfortunately old historic fears still lie under the surface, every time NATO gained a country closer to Russia, then past thoughts in regard to not trusting Europe starts to dominate the thinking of Russian leaders, who then try to panic the Russian population with anti-European feelings.
Negotiations can only bear fruit if both sides are acting in good faith. The Russians aren’t, it’s simply a ruse, part of their strategy to obfuscate what they are doing.
Hi Sean, I totally understand, the only way that change can move forward, is for a more open negotiation to take place that covers all long held fears, by publicly announcing that a meeting will take place, will hopefully bring the Russians to the table, that searches for a more brighter outlook that finds peace and reconciliation as a core ambition to move towards.
It’s pretty grim watching the news lately with all the civilian deaths taking place in Ukraine. Putin is going into the cliche dictator-in-the-bunker mode. Thankfully, rampant corruption (theft, etc) within Russian military seems to have degraded some of their capacity to act as effectively as one might have feared. This is a Hitler invades Poland moment, it’s a simple as that. There’s so much denial about this reality, and so many people appeasing Putin – especially on the political left in the west. They are in denial about Putin’s brand of Russian imperialism/fascism. We need to keep supplying Ukraine with weapons, and increase the sanctions.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/10/australia-boosts-defence-forces-30pc-biggest-military-increase/
Massive increase over next Couple of decades. Just got to depend it well.
And the UK? We need to follow suit ASAP.
“US congressional negotiators have agreed on a funding bill that contains USD782 billion for fiscal year (FY) 2022 defence programmes, up 5.6% from FY 2021, and USD13.6 billion in Ukraine-related security, humanitarian, and economic assistance.
“This compromise legislation will enable us to invest in military modernisation to keep pace with Russia and China and urgently deliver the emergency aid that the brave people of Ukraine desperately need,” said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, a Kentucky Republican.”
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/industry-headlines/latest/us-lawmakers-reach-deal-on-ukraine-aid-fy-2022-defence-funding
How is Russia’s advance into Ukraine going? This about sums it up:
That convoy is just crying out for an A-10 visit !
Funny that – I was thinking the same thing but with F35 s
that nice long line is screaming Avenger shoot me, would need a C5 to carry the ammo drum though
too true!
Julius Caesar, Alexander the Great, Duke of Wellington, Hannibal Barca? I dimiss you foolish amateurs, I’m a Russian tank commander in 2022, and better than all of you fools, I am going to employ our special tactic of parking our tanks 2 columns deep, nose to tail, right out in the open on a broad highway in the age of cheap anti tank missiles and drones – they’ll run out of ammunition by about 2046, and then me, probably riding a donkey because it will be all we have left, will be ready to strike.
Brilliant David -an excellent assessment!
Having heard Putins Female state mouthpiece talking of Ukraines Biological and Chemical supposed secret programs Knowing the way that Putin is acting it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if he doesn’t Flase flag a chemical attack which is aimed at his own demoralised Conscripts To justify the total destruction of the Country Like a Spoilt Child who can’t have his own way
He is obviously trying to shape the information space so that he can clear these cities with chemical weapons. He has obviously calculated that his tank columns will get shot to pieces in the built up areas so he is going to surround them and then bombard them with terror weapons in an effort to make Ukraine surrender. I doubt they will though. All the while Putin is goading a wider war that he, everyone, just can’t win.
The Russian Army is looking increasingly inept. What are they doing advancing on a one tank front all packed together? You’d expect them to at least utilize screening infantry patrols to protect their armour. Perhaps the Russian Ivan just hasn’t got the moral or training to get out of their vehicles? Maybe this will end in a collapse of Russian moral.
While I have been against a NATO no fly zone over Ukraine, Putin needs to be told calmly, but firmly that if he uses chemical weapons on Ukraine civilians, then NATOs self imposed restraints will be dropped. If we say it, we have to mean it.
Totally agree.
Hi Rob , Putin may well play that card on the Cities I don’t think he wants his own Stalingrad in the rubble of Kiev and his Armoured division are like Lame ducks in nose too tail convoys no outside screen protecting the Convoys even slow moving Drones have had an affect on them , It would seem that it’s conscripts supposedly protecting them ,that maybe the reason that Putin keeps losing High ranking officers As those young Ivans don’t want to or don’t know how too fight and protect the task they’ve been assigned too ,they’ll probably sit it out rather than die for the Motherland
The anti-vaccine, NWO, flat-earth, conspiracy theorists on social media have been pushing this biological weapons research labs propaganda all week. They’re going to put this en par with the West invading Iraq to eliminate WMDs. The difference being that Russia will ‘find’ these weapons in Ukraine. It’s all part of the disinformation campaign to undermine support for Ukraine in the West.
Of course the Russians will find the illusive Chemical weapons Sean as they’ll ne the ones planting it , Just hope Putin gets caught with his hand in the Cookie Jar
If you invade another country, would you take along some Portaloos? I’m just wondering how long it might take for dysentery to affect the Russian traffic jam.
The Russian forces are gradually progressing so as to encircle the major cities.
It looks as though they will cross the Dnieper at Dnipro and attack Odessa from the north.
Well they are going to have to fight get Dnipro first, a large city which is prepared for defence. There also now 3 million armed recruits in Ukraine who are in the process of absorbing $20 billion in military aid. It is widely rumoured that the Russians have lost 10,000 dead already, taking these cities is going to cost a whole lot more casualties too. How long will the Russian grunts put up with that?
It’s turning into mediaeval siege campaign. We need the besieging forces to get fed up and go home before the besieged starve.
Rob, Putin needs to take a lesson from history. Look at the state and moral of the Russian army in 1917 and subsequent events in October. Didn’t end particularly well for the Tsar.
So once again we basically dither while kids die of dehydration, hospitals are bombed and Putin lines up chemical weapons.
So how about we conclusively state and unequivocally that any chemical weapons will result in a no fly zone and troops on the ground in Ukraine. Can we all grow a set please.
As to the MIG 29’s in Poland. Why not fuel and load them up, leave the keys in the ignition and low and behold a few naughty Ukrainian pilots sneak over the border and fly them home. Not our fault. We could get Lavrov to make up the excuses for us.
On a lighter note I assume everybody has seen the quip of “ I fought the NLAW, and the NLAW won”.
Agree. We’re waiting for someting far too awful before we do what’s necessary to stop the slaughter & atrocities while Putins acts like Attilla on steroids.
The Russians are eating rations dated 2015 which shows there is something wrong with they’re logistical system, also I have heard but unconfirmed that the Russian battlegroups are upto 50 Vehicles + 20 Tanks and 1 fuel truck.
George, I read this article as implying conscripts are being brought in as replacements. However, other media sources indicate that Putin was mistaken when he said no conscripts were present and the Russians are claiming to have since removed them (or are doing so). Meaning the conscripts aren’t being added, rather they’re being removed.
I’m in no way a Truss fan ( in-fact I more centre left that centre right) but in a speech she has just said a lot of what I have wanted to hear from a British politician for a long time. The west needs to wake up and be more assertive, it needs to wean itself of dependence on authoritarian states and defence spending needs a significant increase, she said 2% is a lower baseline and it should be more, even noting it was 5% before….
I don’t want to but I am wondering if she has the grit needed. She also comes from a more normal background ( not super rich ) and from her CV is actually one of the clever ones who got there on Brains not connection.
She seems a little too keen to make a name for herself though, without the knowledge and experience to back it up.
Suggested that Brits could go off to fight in the war and be helped by the Government to do so. Everyone else soon put that straight.
Her geographic knowledge of the region is poor, not good when you are the foreign secretary. Suggesting that the Black Sea was in the Baltics was rather embarrassing, then Lavrov set a trap for her by asking her why she didn’t think two regions in Russia weren’t its territory. She fell into that one not releasing they were in Russia and not the Donbas region.
Her whole trip to Russia was ill conceived. She turned up looking and sounding like the school mistress, telling them off. That isn’t what was required at that point. She looked foolish, no more so when Lavrov walked out of their press conference. I’m not excusing the Russian’s behavior, but she is putting herself in these positions.
Since then she has continued to try and sound tough when sometimes a more statesperson approach is called for.
You’ve probably guessed by now that I am not a fan! She is trying too hard and tripping over herself as a result.
I think she is a good mid ranking minister, but not top grade. She is not fit for the top jobs (PM, Chancellor, Home & Foreign Secretary).
Now is the time for diplomacy to begin to take effect. The Russians need to be given a face savings proposal; such as a neutral Ukraine overseen by the UN for some period of time. Such a move could give Putin his victory to assure Russian sovereignty and he could then bring his troops home, mission accomplished. The devil in the details is the occupied territories that Russia must vacate. For that to happen Russia will have to take more of a beating. it’s all quite sad.
Putin might go for a neutral Ukraine so long as it is totally disarmed, a Putin puppet regime installed(against the wishes of the people) & all the leadership of Ukraine that opposes him is purged. Having been brutally invaded in a serious & deliberate attempt to snuff out Ukraine it would be beyond reasonable for Ukraine to surrender it’s freedom, soveriegnty or aspirations just to appease the odious bullying neighbors.
Normally I’d agree that a face-saving something be given so that Putin can withdraw, but I’m not sure there is anything that can be given, certainly not just yet. We’d need to reach a point where he wishes to withdraw and I don’t think he does. By his lights he’s winning, albeit slowly. Dead conscripts are nothing to him.
Unless some other country decides to declare war on Russia, I fear the Ukraine will have to suffer for many more weeks.
I do not understand why, after the US refused to facilitate the Polish Mig deal, we didn’t step in instead. We already have a trilateral agreement with Poland and the Ukraine, so provided no NATO bases were used, it wouldn’t have NATO ramifications. Of course we couldn’t supply the F-16 replacements, but Putin already hates us, so our supply of the Migs to Ukraine would change nothing for our relationship.
I’m sure the US would backfill with the F-16s when all this was over.
It comes down to not wanting this to be escalated into a NATO vs Russia conflict. At the moment all arms supplies to Ukraine are classified as defensive, so relatively short ranged and nothing that can easily be used in an offensive capacity against Russia.
Aircraft are quite clearly offensive assets. It would be a big step to supply them as it arguably means NATO has entered the war, which is exactly what they are trying to avoid. Any NATO nation going rogue on this risks bringing us all into it. I don’t think Russia, or the wider world, would make a distinction between a NATO nation supplying offensive arms or NATO doing it itself.
After all, if it was that clear cut and easy why didn’t Poland just give the Migs to Ukraine directly? Its because they know full well what could happen so wanted the backing of the US.
I don’t think Ukraine can hold their current line on Crimea and Donbas forever. They haven’t controlled either for years and are not likely to unless Russia suddenly changes their outlook on the world. Even when Putin is replaced his successor would be immediately weakened by giving up those regions. It is highly unlikely they will ever get them back, so why lose the rest of the country and thousands more lives?
Perhaps I am overly simplifying it, after all it is not my country that has been attacked.
I agree on the neutrality issue and the UN overseeing that.
What cannot happen though is Ukraine be disarmed or their politics be controlled by Russia. That isn’t independence or being free.
We should not reward Russian aggression, neither should we deny them an “off ramp”. The Cuban missile crisis was solved with a deal.
Russia has said Ukraine must disarm and basically give the country to Russia. Anything less is not on there table just now.
I do think nato needs to have more resources on the eastern border of nato near Ukraine. The UN is paralysed in this situation to do anything.
Is there anything Russia can do that will make nato roll in? It’s so risky of going nuclear.
Given Biden’s speech yesterday it seems there is nothing that would bring NATO into a direct fight in Ukraine. There just isn’t the will to risk major escalation. It’s terribly sad. As a father of 2 little ones I’m torn between ensuring their safety and the thought of so many children caught up in this war. It’s only going to get worse. We can only hope that the sanctions bring the Russian economy down and force them to stop.
I’ll put this link to a Fox news report on US Mil Int and how they got it badly wrong on the Uraine, HIH https://www.foxnews.com/world/kyiv-russian-invasion-intelligence