The U.S. National Intelligence Council has released the seventh edition of its quadrennial report ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’.
The report is an unclassified assessment of the forces and dynamics that the NIC anticipates are likely to shape the national security environment over the next 20 years.
“Global Trends 2040 identifies four structural forces that will shape the future – demographics, the environment, economics, and technology – and assesses how they affect decisions and outcomes. It further describes five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, based on different combinations of the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertainties. It ends with a series of graphics displaying key demographic trends in nine geographic regions.
The NIC has delivered Global Trends to each incoming or returning U.S. presidential administration since 1997 as an unclassified assessment of the strategic environment, reflecting a broad range of expert opinion in the United States and abroad. The report is intended to help policymakers and citizens anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures. The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of IC collaboration and outreach.”
The full report is available here, along with a five-year strategic outlook for each geographic region. It is understood that a wide variety of experts, domestically and internationally, were consulted by the NIC as it conducted its analysis.
The final report represents the views of the NIC, according to the agency.
Let’s get into the report
According to the report, the next 20 years will be more volatile with a heightened risk of conflict, at least until states establish new rules, norms, and boundaries for the more disruptive areas of competition.
It says:
“States will face a combination of highly destructive and precise conventional and strategic weapons, cyber activity targeting civilian and military infrastructure, and a confusing disinformation environment. Regional actors, including spoilers such as Iran and North Korea, will jockey to advance their goals and interests, bringing more volatility and uncertainty to the system.”
As for ‘other major powers’ besides the USA and China, the report says that Russia is ‘likely to remain a disruptive power’; while the UK is ‘likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus.
The report also states that the United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence.
Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.
“The United Kingdom is likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus. The United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence. Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.”
At face value we punch above our weight but much of our capabilities are hollow.
Two carriers but not enough F35’s available to provide both CAP and a strike capability. The shorter range of the F35b and its lack of air to air refueling, drop tanks and stand off weapons means our carries having to operate close to shore on strike missions and we’ve just seen the threat that shore based SSM’s can pose. UK F35’s have no stand off land attack or anti-ship missiles and even when they get SPEAR its range is a third of Storm Shadow and a fraction of LRASM.
Typhoon is a good aircraft but lacks a HARM missile for SEAD and integrating Meteor is taking forever. We’re retiring the C130 fleet to save money and have already retired our hugely capable ground surveillance rader equipped jets and vital AWACS fleet (which will be replaced but only with three jets).
Our SSN’s are excellent but the glacially slow build rate means we are down to five active hulls so have more missions than we have got submarines to undertake them.
From next year no RN vessel will carry an anti-ship missile. T45 and T31 have no ASW capabilities (the T45 sonar having been reportedly mothballed) and Lynx helicopters have no anti-submarine detection equipment.
The Army is seeing a further reduction in tanks and Challenger 3 will be poorer than other new designs entering service at the same time (an example being its lack of active protection). There are far too few soldiers for any sustained ground operation above low intensity missions.
Much of this is due to spending money badly. The £5 billion projected spend on Ajax and £4 billion spend on MR4 (in 2022 prices), would have gone a long way to sorting out nearly all of the issues I mentioned.
Spot on
Won’t the Challenger 3 have the Israeli Trophy APS?
Supposed to get it. Although not all the fleet will get it. Usual cost cutting BS.
Not really if the USA and Israel only fit it on units going into combat why would we do otherwise
After Russia’s experience with tank losses, there is a strong argument to equip our MBTs plus other vehicles when operating in hostile theaters. This could result in the purchase of more systems?
Using Russian tank loses as a example means nothing it just shows the massive loses and total cook off with them is how poorly built and designed Russian tanks are compared to western MBT.
I agree tactically, but both NLAW and Javelin will kill a Challenger 2!
Look on the bright side.
At least we are buying some TROPHY so it is a system that is accepted and will be in inventory, spares and training.
Far easier and cheaper to upscale that than to start from scratch.
Likewise we are on a CH3 program so upgrading more is no on the impossible list and it will get cheaper the more are upgraded.
…and poorly tactically handled.
Would be a big price tag if you fitted APS to all AFVs.
It would seem that the Russian tank losses are a lot down to design. Shells are carried in a carousel under the turret – to facilitate rapid reloading. It seems that one missile strike can easily set of one round which tends to cook-off the rest – blowing the turret sky high and killing the crew.
In western tanks the rounds are stored in separate locations. Slows the reload slightly but makes the tank more resilient.
Because in combat tanks will be lost and replacements from the reserve brought in! If they won’t be used in combat why bother having them?
Because you should.
The bean counters at work.
From what i’ve read, the answer is yes.
Meteor is already in service with Typhoon. And you know more F35s are coming.
Agree 100%. No doubt someone will be along soon to say we don’t need anti ship missiles though as one of the astutes will be in 3 places at once. Or airpower with its nonexistent anti ship weapons will save the day. Or a nato ally will do the job for us despite having their own waters they need to protect as well. Or aliens will intervene on our behalf. Whichever excuse is in fashion for the day.
Ao what would you do about it then and how would you pay for it??
The money is there already, it just needs competent people spending it rather than flushing billions down the toilet over the years on failing mismanaged projects.
Money will always be spent in ways that are not exactly efficient. To think otherwise is just wishful thinking. In the real world, such losses need to be reduced, yes, but they also need to be taken into account when planning and funding projects. As I said, we live in the real world, not a fantasy world.
Then change officer promotion and add in procurement management – min 5 years on a project AND your work referenced for a further 5 years on promotion boards. Complete balls up on both CS and Military boards.
Military careers are not geared around 5 years in post; it won’t fly. Civil Servants is different.
I agree that all who work at Abbey Wood should have procurement training.
Bump. Well said.
That doesn’t really answer the question does it.
Marked….. a mate of mine has got some Hyperdrive units from the Millennium Falcon…. bolt them on the Astutes and Admiral Han Solo can be anything around the world in seconds
There are gaps, there’s no denying it.
However, “Punching above our weight” also involves know how, professionalism, training, and most importantly the logistic and intelligence trail to back it all up and actually deploy effectively. All of which mighty Russia has been found wanting despite numbers.
It is always a balance, how many nations have lots of shiny kit sitting there unused and with no combat or operational experience but which on paper look good?
Meteor has entered service. The loss of Sentinel remains demented in my view despite it supposedly being obsolete and agree with the herc cuts and ASW gaps.
Totally agree about the things in your first paragraph. If anything that makes our terrible procurement record even more disappointing as we have brilliant people but give them largely rubbish kit which takes far too long to get into service
“but give them largely rubbish kit”
I can’t really agree with that.
Most of the rubbish kit has been removed from inventory to make way for way better stuff.
“which takes far too long to get into service”
That is probably true in some cases.
The biggest problems are the massive projects that stall soak £Bn’s and then fail.
There are a lot of small scale very good value for money projects that get pushed back because the big projects are sucking cash and seen as vital.
There are examples of brilliant procurement but we always focus on the stuff ups.
We should forget the balls up that is Ajax? Astute build (oxymoronic), Nimrod, Warrior upgrade? Glacial T26 build?
No, we need focus and people doing a 2 year stint need to be held to account on their promotion boards 5 years into the future – how many would have gold plated Ajax if they knew it would bite them on the arrse several years later?
I’m trying to get into MoD procurement – I actually have an online assessment centre next week for it, which I think is the 2nd to last stage (I hope!).
I keep thinking that if I get in, then if I start on a procurement project I’ll bloody well see it through!
Many complex military procurement projects take 10 years or more.
I’d describe destroyers and general purpose frigates with no ASW or anti-ship missiles and helicopters with no data link or submarine detection equipment as rubbish kit
The kit is fine and upgradable.
Far better than having ancient rubbish in huge number.
You could fit hull sonar to T45 very easily. The issue is more having a proper sonar team to operate it all the time.
The thing about T45 being noisy is half true. It is very noisy going very very fast which it is very very good at going fast. When it is going along slow it is not so bad.
You as you don’t hunt subs at a sprint and can’t listen for them at a sprint the use of the sonar is actually quite moot for a ship that is not supposed to be sitting around.
Hence why a lot of us keep saying the a persistent drone would be more useful.
Most procurement projects go very well. You just hear about the big ones that go wrong.
Don’t agree we are and have always been in the top tier and continue to be able to do what nearly everyone else can’t that’s just simple reality based on historical and current fact.
Your entire El negative opinion is from what I can see is based on “numbers of assets” the usual shite the haven’t a clue brigade spout every single time anything positive is reported .Not enough tanks not enough ships not having this kind of missile etc etc blah blah blah.
Intelligence gathering ,logistical capabilities, communications and training that is light years beyond 99% of the planets capabilities are what really counts and guess what the U.K. has them that’s why we are so good.
You can have eleventeen million soldiers and thousands of tanks and planes but it’s all meaningless if you can t move and deploy them and then when you do don’t know where / what the enemy are doing. History and current events are thee for all to see………No comms no bombs
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Well said 👍🇬🇧
A grown up has just entered the room.
You get the same in America. People saying the same things like capability gaps, services not got what’s needed etc etc. doesn’t matter how good you are you can always do better. Defence is a had area to measure. So long as you are better trained and use what you have better than your opponents the outcome should be what you want it to be.
It’s probably difficult for most folk to understand the true value of the points you raised, in particular good intel, comms and log. It’s not the sort of discipline that grabs the headlines, but of course you are 100% correct. I’d add RAF UAV ops to your list, both intel gathering strike.
It is difficult to strike a balance with force numbers though. I genuinely don’t know what the optimum force number should look like, however there is no denying the waining number since the 2003/4 cuts.
I do believe the UK armed forces have much to be proud of and should rightly hold their heads high.
Aye totally agree with your point on cuts and RAF UAV ops .I don’t get notification to any replies on here and due to being on the “list” hardly ever get any of my bloviations through the moderator probs something to do with my opinions? and difficulty in sticking to strict civility guidelines 😂
HM armed forces NUMERO UNO 👍🏻
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That is a wholly negative out look, with some pretty black a s white statements.
what do we have, probably the best combination of ASW surface and rotor asset in the world. OK it would be nice that our AAW destroyers had some organic ASW but then if it needs it you pair it with a Merlin.
As for AAW we have the most advanced AAW asset in the world, I yes you may give the but it’s got less missiles….that’s fine but it’s going to kill more with the missiles it has than most other AAW platforms on the planet ( Most Navy’s will fire multiple missies for each target, the T45 will use one). Every escort is going have CAMM which is an exceptional short range area air defence missile.
needless to say we have 2 modern 70,000 ton aircraft carriers. With a fifth generation. Air wing ( which is only growing) and the discussion around the F35B having a shorter range the F35c is marginal, it as a decent combat range, but more importantly it’s a fifth generation fighter that will simply carve apart forth generation aircraft formation before they can respond or gain awareness of the threat.
Im not sure how anyone could be able to say if challenger 3 will in inferior to any other tank, that’s a very big call indeed and it will have active defence systems.
As for the age old discussions around heavyweight Anti ship missiles. How often does the discussion need to go, escorts are not there to go hunting other ships there function is to protect shipping assets. They are not commerce raiders ( Russian ships are). I don’t recall a western escort vessel ever firing organic heavyweight anti ship missiles in any conflict. As long as your ship has functional Anti surface weapons that can mission kill the enemy at normal expected engagement an escort is golden. Because of the kill chain that means relatively short range, in real life ships will be hiding from each other and they are not going to be hurling missiles over hundreds of nautical miles. They will engage because there is a reason to engage, something to defend or attack and those engagement ranges are short due to the size of areas to hide in, a 200square mile radius ( gives ships 126,000 square miles to to steam around not finding each other). So actually spear 3, CAMM and navel guns ( which are very effective Anti surface weapons) will give the RN the ability to put down a lot anti surface warfare systems to overwhelm a target. Heavyweight anti ship missiles are nice, but they are best carriers by aircraft ( which is something we do need) and an SSN is still the very best Anti surface weapon system on the planet, if you have no answer to an RN SSN you can’t operate large ships against the RN. Yes we have a slow build of SSNs but we have out built Russia by a large margin and as we can only really sustain 7-8 SSNs and 4 strategic platforms the build rate is now at the correct level ( it was the pause in building that caused the issue, not the present build rate).
Are there things we need yes:
1) more wedgetails as we need that.
2) some from of fleet ABM to protect key assets
3) increase air defence ( army)
4) precision long ranged fire for the Army
5) ensuring the army is able to deploy its assets as needed
6) a few more fast jet squadrons F35B and latest block typhoon.
But the British armed forces are in a better place than most of our peers. Not so dark as you play it to be.
Bravo J.
Well said mate. You said everything I couldn’t be bothered to say for the 500th time in the UKDJ comments section. 😄👍
With respect to your point above Western navies never using SSM”s, US warships fired Harpoon during operation Praying Mantis and in confrontations with Libya in the Gulf of Sirte. But in any event will you be arguing that we should abolish nuclear missiles because no one has fired one?
And you’re right; warships will seek to stay away from other warships and not close to engage with SSM’s.The whole point of SSM’s is to establish a sterile zone around your ship that hostile vessels will stay out of. However, ships don’t need to hide from ships with short ranged offensive weaponry when they have long range offensive weapons themselves. That’s why every other Navy disagrees with the RN and you and fits them.
And SSN’s are the best platform but we have five (eventually rising to seven) and you avoided my point that we already have more missions for our submarines than we have hulls deployed to undertake them.
We use helicopters to sink vessels in the littoral. SSN’s to sink larger vessels. Escorts equipped with Anti ship missiles as back up. Other Navy’s don’t have that array of capability. You want to sink warships, you use the best tool for the job. A Nuclear sub. And the West has a hugely capable hunter killer submarine fleet. 1 or 2 Astutes could cause havoc with overwhelming capabilities.
Yes I don’t think people realise the impact of one SSN used in anger against a navy that is not equipped to handle it ( and I suspect only the RN, USN and maybe the Royale could have a chance of managing to keep an Asute evading to prevent it sinking a lot of ships).
Also I think the strategic mobility of an SSN is generally underestimated, a boat that can travel 600+ NM every day without concern for fuel, that’s crossing the Pacific in 20 days or Atlantic in 4 days. This also means even if we only have a couple deployed they really could turn up anywhere in very short order and if HMG says there is an SSN there, then it’s a meaningful threat.
Couldn’t agree more mate 👍. Sorry I didn’t reply to you a few days back about UK Shipbuilding. You had made some very valid points that I didn’t consider at the time of my original post.
Other navies do have that array of capabilities. France, China, Russia, India and the US have SSN’s and carriers and all of them fit escort ships with heavyweight SSM’s.
Russia’s shown what a massive offensive armament but little focus on defence can achieve; just look at the Moskva!
It all has to be:-
a) integrated; and
b) work.
Otherwise all you have is a floating junk yard. Or a large handy target…..who said that eh?
And all but two are allies. That’s why we work together, and practice interoperability relentlessly.
Steve you are forgetting the kill chain, ships at war do not blast out across the EM spectrum, which means you can or see them and they can’t see you. Every warship has to hide if it does not it’s dead. The enemy will know where it is and co-ordinate the assets to overwhelm and kill it. This means there is no sterile Zone around a warship beyond a very limited range, even if a ship went active with a very high mounted radar against a very large target the radar horizon is no more 20nm. In an active war zone ships could be within 20nm and could steam right past each other. One of the main uses of the small ship flight is to be the eyes and ears of the ship and fly around looking for the enemy, and if you need your small ship flight to find the enemy you many as well use the rotor to kill the enemy ship.
Heavyweight ASMs work for aircraft as they the radar horizon to find a target.
The most useful ASuW for a escort is its Gun and it’s small ship flight, and the U.K. have very good rotors indeed, we now have a new option which is very fast Mach 4 missiles ( CAMM, and just work out the kinetic energy of a 100kg Mach four missile, that will all be dumped into the ships hull because CAMM has a body that will fragment and tumble after the warhead goes off, for the same affect on the ship that a hollow point has on a person) and potential for a large load out of spear 3s ( which would be more effective at any reasonable engagement range than a small number of heavyweight ASMs). As a final cherry it would be nice to have heavy weight anti ship missiles on our escorts, but these are in reality just big “look at our missiles” signs and not the weapons that will actually be used. So if we are spending money on them they should have a primary long range land attack role and just happen to be willy waving Heavyweight ASMs as well ( sometimes willy waving does prevent conflict so I don’t rule them out).
It’s interesting reading about how the Moskva was targeted. They didn’t know where it was until it’s general position was revealed by publicly available satellite imagery revealed its persistence in that general location, they then sent out a drone to search that area giving more precise targeting information and act as a distraction, the two missiles were then aimed at that spot the ship would have had about 10 seconds to respond once detected and the rest is history.
Very true. There is of course a need for anti surface missiles on RN ships, but mainly for land attack roles, anti shipping being secondary. I honestly cannot find one wartime example of a modern warship detecting, tracking, gaining a firing solution , launching missiles and striking a peer enemy warship, and not be attacked itself.
The only examples I have are by SSN.
HmS Conqueror 2nd May 82 Silent service proud wearer of the Skull and cross bones pennant when returning to GUZZ
It had to be done.
Not nice but it had to be done it was war and the Argentinians started it by invading.
Belgrano was a major threat with its escorts and that was acknowledged by surviving officers.
Indeed it was tasked as part of an attack plan contrary to the rubbish that one J Corbyn kept spouting.
Yes the of the Captain of the Belgrano was very clear the ship was a valid military target and they were moving to engage.
What was really interesting was the threat assessment, the Captain of the belgrano saw his ship as a lower level threat, but the RN from the interviews I have watched and read were actually quite concerned what a 6in gun, cruiser with 5-6 in armoured belts would do to RN frigates and destroyers who would have no answer if it got within engagement range ( exorcet would struggle to do much against 5.5 inch armoured belts, the 4.5in guns would be functional pointless against a target designed to survive 6inch guns, and such a large ship that essentially mechanical in nature and very damage resistant ( as all 6in cruisers were). In fact the only real way to get any form of kill on something like that was with heavyweight torpedoes.
Again. Spot on mate. Folks don’t understand the kill chain process. All this talk of taking out warships from hundreds of miles away with vessel launched ASM’S is nonsense in real world Naval warfare. If the cash was available, I’d rather put TLAM on our escorts.
Well said Jonathan.
Clear and logical.
Nicely put.
Excellent balanced and logical reply 👍🏻
Jonathan, really good insights, thank you. I’m particularly liking your points 1 and 6. And that’s not to suggest I don’t support the other 4 points you raised.
Very well said we have war in Europe and lacking with some of our warfare systems ,we have kit with only half of it’s potential because of lack of investment .Plus we keep on cutting what does it take for HMG to wake up ☕
True but much of that’s relatively easy to fix with modest budget increases. Structurally the forces are in the best place they have been for years.I do agree on SSN, we could easily double production.
The army is in the worse shape it has been for years. Very small troop numbers, with nearly all AFVs being old and mostly unmodernised, very little artillery, significant capability gaps.
More F35 arriving….. News for you F35 don’t just come off the belt like a family car. We could go for cheap nasty easy to obtain Russian quality crap no thanks rather wait for high end .
I hear two Russian aircraft fell out of the sky on the first day of the war due to the poor quality of maintenance. Some people still seem be seduced by raw numbers but fail to appreciate that quality is a force-multiplier.
I don’t know if it’s still happening, but in the days of the Soviet Union, Apparently the ground crews would often drink the Anti freeze meant for the Aircraft then again it could be an Urbanski myth Sean
An Su-34 ‘fell out if the sky’ yesterday near Kharkov, No hostile impact it just fell round and round like a leaf. Destroyed on impact. Engine failure likely. The crew ejected and were SAR helicopter’d.
Because the ground crew are shite, the aircrew are half trained and the kit they use is actually quite shite as well! You choose which most suits or a combination of the three!
What if Meteor could do some of the anti-radiation role?
Anything with a radar in the front of it can go passive and do anti radiation with a bit of help from mother.
I think you have not quite grasped the fact that this assessment covers the future not the present. You are tight we do have current capability gaps but these are not pertinent. We will get more F35s, and Tempest. We will get new strike missiles and ABM capable ships. We will get new SSN/SSBNs. Also there is much work being done on autonomous land/sea/air systems that will give extra capability.
Given the new focus on defence post the Russian invasion of Ukraine it would not shock me to see a higher priority for defence funding.
Defence is changing given new technology and I do not thing you have fully grasped its future impact. This is why the UK is putting money into new technologies sometimes at the cost of legacy systems. Such change is not comfortable but it goes beyond just counting tanks…
Very well explained 👍
I thought the reason for the carriers’ perceived lack of aircraft was because they their full operating capability won’t be reached until 2023.
Numerous reasons exist but people just love to bang the ‘aircraft carriers with no aircraft’ drum and ignore the facts they get told every single time they bring it up. Typical copy and past trolling sadly.
Ssssshhhh…..why spoil their rant with the most basic of ascertainable facts like when it is planned to be fully operational…..I mean goodness you will shortly point out that warships are built in Scotland or something else that is factually true?
Moral: never er facts get in the way of a good winge!
A good, succinct summary but I would add that the attack submarine issue is primarily that 7 boats is not enough by far – we should perhaps have a SSN/SSK mix of well over a dozen boats.
I had not heard that CR3 will be poorer than other designs entering service at the same time – I hear that 60 APS will be fitted across the 148-strong fleet – that shortfall could be quickly remedied. 148 tanks allows for just two Type 56 armoured regiments – way too few, as you say.
The army has so many other equipment problems (in particular other AFVs and artillery) that the list of concerns should be much longer.
You are right about the shortfall of soldiers – we could not sustain an enduring brigade group operation (such as Op HERRICK was) from a base of 73,000. Also it will be hard to deploy a strong digitised division for a short-duration operation, without considerable recourse to reservists, and a lot of new kit.
Yes, not good 2% of GDP is under punching our weight. Putin 2 years time starts on us and the US is as slow as it’s leader to respond, history shows it often is, we are stuffed. Anyone including, some have served, do not appear to understand the Russians, we would be extremely unwise to assume that Putin is the only problem. If they did they would doing something similar to Germany. I would not freeze Russian assets I would seize them and spend it on the arm forces. You can do it to striking Trade Unions why not Russia. As far as I am aware no British trade union is guilty of genocide!
F35b has air to air refuelling!
It does but we have no carrier based assets to refuel it
Yet.
The punch above own weight was linked to our perm membership of the secruity council and nukes. They didn’t link it to actual military power.
That actual military power is the enablers that I outline rather than numbers which we lack. You could have 1000 tanks and 400 fast jets with no combat experience, tactics, or logistical back up to use them.
Yeah just highlighting what the report stated rather than how people are reacting to it. Sooner or later we will lose our perm seat on the UN, at which point it will be interesting to see how the US consider us.
Russia’s far more likely to lose their permanent seat than we are.
Why? USSR was a WW2 victor and Russia has inherited that.
Perm seats were allocated to the WW2 victors – no-one can take that away from us.
Only possibility is if Scotland gains independence, then we could.
Any condemnation yet of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? Come on troll have some balls to answer that one simple question!
No. USSR seat was transferred to the Russian Federation, as I am sure you must know – a far bigger change to a country. The loss of less than 10% of our population would not warrant loss of the P5 seat.
Could not agree more, plus the lack of Marte ER for Typhoon’s short term as they are all ready to be integrated.
Sadly true, Steve.
As a P5, G7 member, and one of the world’s biggest economies, as well as a world financial centre, so I should think!
Here, here, Daniele, very well said….
The UK has the ability to project power and sustain it, it’s a rare capability, most other nations simply don’t possess.
I honestly think it would be the same with China too, if they attempted to invade Taiwan, they would be thrown back in disarray.
Ukraine shows us clearly that these huge lumbering inflexible military machines, with their fixed top down command structures just simply don’t work.
They actually fall flat on their arse when they hit determined resistance….
For a small country we might be punching above our weight but we’ve still got the reach
The nature of all totalitarian regimes, such as Putin’s kleptocracy, or China’s Communist Party, is they their authoritarianism demands strict top-down command structures with little initiative for troops and commanders on the ground. As such, they are all doomed to have inflexible, unimaginative, and inefficient militaries.
UK can project power to any corner of the globe. Russia and China have shown no similar ability – they are regional, not global players.
You forgot to add the 11th largest exporter of manufactured goods by value, and only second to the USA in number of science Nobel prizes win. 😉
And a quarter of the Population to the USA
Quarter of the population but a tenth of the GDP. Can’t really compare population as natural resources/land mass etc come into play.
I left out lots, as I’ve gone on off on rants like this before when there is an anti UK troll in the room, but could not be bothered. Lets add soft power, self proclaimed nuclear power, top universities, a test pilot school in the ETPS which sits next to the USAF, USN, and French equivalents at the top table of that, the English language, which underpins science and ATC around the world and legacy of empire which remains to this day, and diplomatic, cultural, and military alliances and ties around the world.
We also have assets in the SF, intelligence community, ISTAR areas, SSN, SSBN, and QECs that most nations can only dream of.
Oh yes, when others talk my nation down I will talk it up!!
We are somebody. NEVER let anyone try to do us down with what the UK is and what it has achieved.
Who is the troll?
How is this affected by France and Germany still supplying weapons to Russia during the Ukraine invasion ?
They havent supplied them since the invasion, theyve continued to deliver on contracts for small arms signed before the 2014 arms embargo after the embargo was implemented on the argument that they would be used for police.
Germany has supplied a lot of equipment but they often don’t make a big song and dance about it unlike most. I think Ukraine has loads of equipment now. Main thing going forward is keeping the supplies going. Everyone is really quick to judge the Germans but they have a lot of laws and procedures about supplying weapons, getting involved in conflicts etc.
they also have the big issue that the need Russian gas and if that was cut off they would be in a bad situation with industry, residential, economic.
Steps are being taken to stop taking so much gas but it can’t happen overnight.
I don’t know where France get there gas from.
With 52 odd nuclear power stations France doesn’t use gas in such a high proportion of its total energy consumption as us.
‘Punching above it’s weight’ seems a little condescedning as we spend spend more than most of the world in defence. There’s only a few countries on the planet that out spend us. I’d also argue we’re above most/all other countries when it comes to expertise.
Its a lazy, meaningless phrase.
If this war in Ukraine has proved anything, absolute size is an irrelevant metric for measuring a country and its power.
Mac, I don’t think anyone would consider that we had large armed forces for the size of our Defence spend.
My brother in law was an officer in the Spanish Air Force. At the time of the Falklands war he got into many arguments with my father (ex RN) and mother (ex WAAF) about the war. Basically, he was arguing that Argentina was a geographically large country and would therefore win. My father pointed out that the relative sizes of the defence budgets was rather more relevant. History provided the answer.
I would suggest is able to knife their opponents in the right place using the right tool is a far more apt description.
And you can fit our population in Texas with room just saying …………I’ll get my coat what one means is we are a small country yet vast territories such a US, CCCP sorry Russia ,and China have extremely large populations as well we might be a small fish in a big Pond but my god we’ve got teeth ……. ill get my coat
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When dear old JC was leader of the opposition I saw him on TV describe the UK as a small nation, he seemed to be only thinking about size in area and typically just had to ignore the rest. It probably pained him.
That his ilk are still just under the surface in the Commons and amongst the Young Labour and Labour party membership is terrifying. Everyone forgets it when looking at the supposedly respectable K Starmer.
You’re better than that post.
Morning David.
Maybe then you too are better than that answer!
Have you looked at Young Labour’s Twitter feed on their stance on NATO? And why the LP membership oppose AUKUS? Just because you’re a Labour man, which I respect, does not mean I won’t point out elephants in the room just like you do with your attacks on the PM, who despite his many faults, such as being a human being who evaded covid rules like millions and then tries to move on from it, does not oppose either.
As for my comment on Corbyn, sorry, but it tallies exactly with what Tommo was stating.
Thanks.
Agreed, spot on. The current Labour Party has changed little from when Corbyn was trying to be dear leader! They still have the momentum movement working feverishly behind the scenes, you have a front bench full of third raters and MPs, who if you bother to read their twitter feed, are shockingly out of touch with both UK and overseas thinking.
Morning Daniele, I no longer get email notification about posts. Sorry for late reply.
True, I can’t answer for others, other than feel disappointed at their stance.
I think we can both agree to disagree on our current Leadership, correct?
I hope we can agree to agree in wishing the best for UK Armed Forces, agreed?
And Sir Kier is hardly working class But then again our little country has a World class Education system Corbyn failed his 11+ by the sound of it
Working class boy made good, I would suggest Tommo.
On defence matters the parties are almost the same. Do more with less. That’s ok to a point and the tech makes a massive difference. I would rather have 150 typhoons and f-35b than 500 jaguars, f-4 phantoms and harriers. Going forward there needs to a good look at how to stop the expensive kit getting destroyed by cheaper weapons. The U.K. direction of travel with anti ship missiles seems good. Multiple smaller missiles will be harder to counter than a big one. Still don’t know if the future anti ship missile uses the 2 extra penetrators as shown of Perseus. That mixed with the smaller brimstone size weapons is a good mix. If I could only afford one I would go for the smaller multi platform missile.
All political parties represent a section of society, and are meant to be a mouthpiece for that section of society.
What the hell did that post mean.? The UK has teeth because someone else gave them to them
Nuclear submarines , The technology to run the submarines with the reactor which evidently the UK managed not get right. The Trident missiles… And then the warheads that the UK no longer has the ability to design.
God you do get boring with your anti UK rants. What’s up, did a Brit squaddie first bang your missus, then bang you out? It’s quite sad you feel the need to be so negative on all your posts. Do you need a cry and a cuddle?
👍👍 couldn’t find an emogy for banging your missus so thumbs up Airbourne
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Laughing my bollocks off at the moment – what a cracking start to the day!
“And then the warheads that the UK no longer has the ability to design.”
Intriguing? Since when was that? Despite co operation with LANL which goes back to the dawn of the nuclear age when have we not been able to design, produce and modify, maintain the nuclear stockpile?
Daniele, we designed Polaris and Chevaline nuclear warheads but have chosen to use US-designed warheads on Trident – no idea why. Think we build the warheads though.
Exactly. We choose to, not that we cannot. We build our own warheads at AWE Aldermaston and assemble them at Burghfield.
The phrase is ridiculous and only exists because the UK is supposedly geographically small. Even when people thought Russia had a formidable, number 2 in the world military, no one said it “punches above its weight” even though their economy is less than half ours! We spend more than any other non-superpower country so I agree, solely our spending should warrant us to be the most powerful non-superpower military. In addition, expertise, technology, training, and countless high-level positions in multinational organisations should mean that we are able to punch hard.
Whilst I often find these US appraisals of our military capabilities a bit of a morale boost I would say that if there is a country punching above it’s weight right now it is:
Ukraine.
They are smaller than the UK with a smaller economy and they lack most of the high end kit we have and yet they have trained hard and learnt from their mistakes, taken advice and are now showing the world that small countries can stand up to a bully.
Now that really is punching above your weight.
CR
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Very thoughtful. Thxs.
Another reminder that the loss of influence likely to accompany the splintering of the United Kingdom would badly affect everyone living in it. There’s a huge difference between being a global power and not. No one in Britain can remember ‘not.’ And it shows.
Well picked up. No one else seems to have picked up the more political elements. And they are a big risk area.
That’s a good point ,if the Scots were too get their independence Big IF , then unfortunately us English wouldn’t be able too do anything as we’ve given all our Lethal aid to Ukraine it would be back too Shire weavers, Peel towers and Cattle russling, arrrgh the Good ol Days
Yeah, Ajax is a disaster so frankly can it and get CV90 as it would be in service quicker
I am sure you mean the recce variant of CV90 similar to that supplied to Norway.
Nice that the cousins think so highly of us. I wonder if they use the same analysis to look at themselves. Their political system is increasingly erratic, isolationist and their democratic process is under severe threat. Should be very worrying for the UK and the west that it’s key ally exhibits such tendencies.
That’s why i’m a big proponent of CANZUK. If we join up with the Aussies, Kiwi and Canucks we at least have something very tangible to fall back on. We just need a bigger navy 🙂
Speaking of Australia, if the Watergate incident happened today it would not be covered by Murdoch’s Fox News nor would it be a story on their website. This is what is happening today as Jan 6 investigations uncover evidence of an attempted coup in the United States. The plethora of media, social and otherwise, is the biggest threat the west has.
From an outsider looking in mate it looks to me like it goes both ways. Your politicians on both sides really need to calm down with the rhetoric. The occasional argy bargy is fine. They need to remember though that they have to work together to run your country. There needs to be polite political discourse at times just for the sake of it.
If they carry on the way they are going though the future does not look good for the USA. That’s the last thing the world needs. We’ve got literal Chinese Nazi (Han supremacist) to worry about.
Spot on that’s my concern trumpski supporter ‘s is Putin’s biggest achievement.
If you really believe that the January 6th demonstrations were an attempted coup than you don’t have the foggiest idea if what a coup attempt is.
I think when an armed mob of 2000 people invades a Parliament building with the declared aim of overthrowing the Government, and 5 people die, “attempted coup” is a reasonable description. Even if the mob is a collection of sawdust-brained dickheads with guns and pipe bombs.
I guess “insurrection” is equally applicable.
“Armed”, haha. Remember these are the “gun-toting rednecks” you’re talking about. If they had been “armed” with the intent to overthrow the government, they would have brought guns.
Bigger(big enough to manage all our needs & commitments) & fully equipped(rather than missing essential kit). With so few escorts all should be ASW & AA capable, with decent AShMs & with embarked helicopters that can do both ASW & anti surface, not either or.
We need to urgently wake up to the fact we need to be ready for a war footing within 5 years max rather than carrying on in basket-case mode.
I’ve never felt our democracies or freedoms as jeopardised & fragile as in the recent few years. We’re tolerating a far too low standard of leadership across the board & in danger of wrecking the whole ship.
And ours is not?
Well it looks like we’re having a right clear out of the closest. And finally giving Ukraine what it’s being begging for. But how soon will all the kit were sending over can be replaced. https://www.armyrecognition.com/
As soon as us Brits stop working from Home
My work place has clocked on to the fact it gets more from us not being in the office ( we tend to all work in the evening as well now) as well as saving money on office space). Also meetings generally we had to wiz around a county having meetings before so you had to have 30min to an hour between meetings…now they can back to back them without even a wee break.
It was only a joke , but then again I doubt if your missus would like Welding cutting equipment furnaces hammerpresses in your frontroom Johnathan
Lol, she may just prefer that she’s a very practical lady my wife, not only is she a nurse but she’s a fully qualified car mechanic as well….although she did get a bit upset a couple of years go when I took over the entire dining room and turned it into a major incident control centre for a county to manage a snow event response over a long weekend ( we could not get to the main ICC due to….. umm well snow).
Well hopefully with Gretna’s predictions Snow events will be a thing of the past Dining rm saved
GRETA not Gretna bloody predictive txt
i do fancy a nice bit of.warmer winters, will save on the heating bills and everything.
Productivity working from home is higher, plus employers can cut on ridiculously overpriced rented office space. I’d resign in a heartbeat and go elsewhere if my employer ended work from home, and we’re finding when recruiting that WFH is a requirement from all candidates.
I only posted it as a joke ,Sean, I doubt working from home includes welding cutting furnaces ironwork
I hope it is now clear that punching above our GDP percentage is dangerous. A normal 3 to 4 percent which is still lower than USA, should be the minimal we and our Country deserves. This should not have been a wake up call, but the current World side wars and issues should strike home now. Even with lazy left wing who should be sacked, civil servants!
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Dont disagree with the 3-4% idea however unless we scrap the NHS (as the USA doesnt have this burden) it aint going to happen.
How did we spend 3-4% on GDP (and more) during the Cold War? We still had the NHS then.
We taxed more fairly then. Nowdays we hemorage wealth to offshore havens & let the biggest potential taxpayers off scot free or with mates rates. We certainly don’t have talented people anywhere near the top of our political leadership. It seems all about selfish exploitation rather than public service.
OK. Tax policy can change then. I’ll just phone up Rishi.
I’m not xenophobic but we did have a smaller population up until 1991 I’ll get my coat Graham
Thanks Tommo. A bigger population increases the number of patients the NHS has to treat, but it means there are more taxpayers too to contribute to the public coffers.
Only if you don’t have Non domicile tax arrangements ……. I’ll get my Coat
Actually James the US government tax spend on healthcare per person is more than the NHS and then they pay the same again in private costs. It’s an illusion that the US government does not pay for healthcare, they pay more per person than we do.
Exactly. The USA is one of the highest spenders on healthcare per population. Private healthcare can have a place but not instead of universal healthcare for all.
What happens is the USA is some people won’t go and see a doctor for an issue they have. Then sometime later it costs loads more to treat than it would of done had the patient been seen earlier. Among a host of other issues
Also healthcare Professionals get payed stupid money in the states compared to the U.K. after all if costs are dictated by the market and if you need healthcare it’s pay the money or die….
So a the last study I read on wage comparisons ( a few years ago now) a U.K. consultant surgeons average wage was around £300-400K ( about £100k for NHS work and £200k is private work). Your America Equivalent Consultant surgeon would be on about 4 million dollars.
Its the same in other Health professions, so a relatively senior nurse like me ( matron level) is on between 45-52k in this county but around 200k in the US.
Its one of the main reason going private would be something this county’s could not afford ( the wage bill is the biggest part of NHS costs) …I’d be in clover as I would get paid on market rates as would every other healthcare professional and we would not come cheap I can tell you ( my private day rate would be around £500 a day).
Reading between the lines, the Baltic states and Poland in particular are really unhappy with the EU and its stance with Russia. Both Estonia and Poland have been talking about closer ties to the UK. They are seriously unhappy with the recent piece meal efforts and dragging of heels by both Germany and France in supporting Ukraine. The UK on the other hand has been at the forefront of pushing for more and delivering both support and military aid. But then we didn’t back ourselves in a corner with an over-reliance of Russian gas, or have billions of pounds worth of manufacturing and mineral contracts, that France only recently have stopped supporting.
I can see another EU split happening. Where countries seeing the dithering and outright intransigence of some Nations, might be the straw that broke the camel’s back.
And all the Liberal leaning do gooders think Brexit was so wrong But if we had remained in the EU our hands would have been tied with what we could have done for the Ukraine Nuff said
No, that is a brexiter fallacy. Just compare the different extremes of support for Ukraine, from near zero in the case of Hungary to far higher in the case of Poland or the baltics.
This country, now out of the EU, was the first to contribute lethal aid, has probably committed more support and funding than any other European nation and has supplied more missiles than the US.
Indeed, but David’s point is correct, and I’m a Brexiteer. In or out of the EU if the UK wanted to do more than other states it would have. There were no shackles there.
And over a much longer time period.
Here we go, the de-escalation efforts with your comments, post a number of routine comments, try to draw in posters with this “reasonable” facade prior to getting back to your Putin Nazi justification posts of an illegal invasion of a sovereign country, namely Ukraine. Troll need to put more effort in!
Not so.
There are any number of ‘custom and practice’ type restrictions that operate in the EU beyond the formal law. And would have kicked in on many questions had we stayed members.
Consider for example those 4 countries that tried to get a vaccine procurement rolling quickly in spring 2020 – the INclusive Vaccine Alliance, and how they were forced back into line by EuCo, and publicly humiliated.
Here is the letter that the Health Ministers were forced to write to the EU Commissioner. It reads like something that might have come from the wotsit of Zanzibar to Queen Victoria. (Page 2 in reply next).
Page 2 of letter:
(Published in the German Press at the time).
The delay cost 10s of k of EU Citizens their lives, and has its root in Brussels deciding that they could basically meet their need by *buying* vaccines rather than actually developing / making them.
Being Brussels and rather self-obsessed with image, I am not aware that they have any serious chance from their mistakes.
Cheers Matt I feel redeemed for my last comment
Poland is on a very odd political course in terms of its legal institutions. It may well be effectively forced out of the EU by that alone. But may wish to exit due to Germany and Franc’s self interested approach to security and undermining NATO.
If anything has killed the EU Army idea this has.
Everyone now knows that an EU army would never be ordered into battle if it didn’t suit Germany’s ecomimc interest and the French leaders vanity. As those thing never line up nothing would ever happen.
Completely agree, it’s such a shame as the European common market was a great idea and made this county a ton of wealth. But the whole level of European integration that we are seeing discussed now is not great. I do think there will be a kick back at some point as we have seen in the U.K.
In the end I think we will have to see the western liberal democracies form some kind of common protected market, as our industrial/tec base is being slowly destroyed by Chinese and other nations mercantile strategy, which we cannot compete against ( due to cheap controlled labour workforces) unless we develop our own western only protectionist and mercantile strategy.
This new Western Liberal democracy trading block would see the EU loss a lot of its point.
Except, many countries accepted that thought and in doing so almost loved the UK as being a leader on these issues, inside the EU, then we threw the EU out with the bathwater.
Say hi to so many issues that our ‘free’ Press will not discuss or air on screen.
And I presume you don’t need me to recount them to you.
We were well placed to change the EU.
Hi Barry, personally I was willing to give the EU some more time and see us work from the inside. But the problem is we had a binary choice leave now or stay in for the long hall.
Although I saw a lot of benefits to EU membership ( trade mainly) I had growing concerns about the level of integration that was being considered and I did not like the level of power in the council of ministers and other bodies that were not directly responsible to an electorate.
So although I voted remain, it was a remain vote that was alway a bit unsure, in the end I went for the economic and geopolitical ( my concern is that the west need a big trade block to manage china’s mercantile strategy), but from a democratic validity ( I always thought the Maastricht treaty should have been a referendum issue) and ongoing future sovereignty point of view, I was keeping a close eye on what was happening.
Interestingly at present if we had another referendum, I would not vote to rejoin the EU ( the balance was so fine with me I would stick with the present course unless it was totally destructive). But I would vote to join a free trade block that involved liberal democracies, I would never vote of free trade with say China or India ( as that is destructive to our own economic base).
The EEC ,at least we got too Vote on whether to join or not ,Democracy in action The EU we didn’t even get a chance to Vote Democracy?
Yes, reminds me of the famous “final say” by the remoaners. There was never a final say regards the EEC and no say as the EEC morphed into something many did not want.
So no, no final says now.
The irony with what is going on in Parliament now, regards the PM ruining democracy as the Lib Dem leader said the other day, lets remember what happened between 2016 and 2019 from those democracy loving MPs on all sides blocking, stalling, and delaying everything that moves.
The irony is delicious!!!!
Democracy is a strange allusion, when One talks of Democracy, and then completely Ignore it Labour and the Liberal Undemocratic Party, 2016/19
Completely agree the Maastricht treaty should have been a referendum level event.
And Little Napoleon has just won another five years SB
A little off the subject guys but just been reading the UK is sending 89 AS90s to the Ukraine .
Good Int (or Intel as the Americans would say), Andrew. Leaves us with 90 guns.
I wonder when we will send surplus Warriors too.
And possibly the tank swap arrangement with Poland which will provide T72s to Ukraine.
There’s a message for the Biden administration at the end of that quotation, the UK needs to be helped to maintain its economic strengths post-Brexit if it is to continue to be a meaningful global ally to the U.S.
Biden’s view is unlikely to be generous, given that he has made it clear that he views brexit as a self inflicted wound……
Biden also insists on talking of his families Irish roots no love lost there then
Stating the bleeding obvious; if we are deploying the whole front line tank strength of the British Army, gifting 20 AS90 to Ukraine as well as all the missiles these will need to be replaced. Defence spending or the contingency fund MUST replace every bit of kit we send to Ukraine or the defence budget will implode and our defences compromised. Sorry Gov but you need to somehow front up the cash.
Not to mention we have no idea if anything can be salvaged from Ajax or if it has to be abandoned entirely. We should at least look at alternatives (presumably the CV90).
Are we deploying 227 tanks?
I heard we were gifting far more than 20 AS90s, about 80?
Not everything needs to be replaced. Those AS90s don’t and probably the Mastiffs – they were surplus to requirements.
I wonder why we are not sending surplus Warriors?
Brexit, the gift that just keep giving.
You’re better than that post….😉
You got me!
It keeps on giving because people are not prepared to accept that it has happened! The irony is that the government are the worst offenders. Obviously their commitment to the international ‘rules based order’ doesn’t apply to treaties they sign.
Agreed. If we were still in the EU we would have had to wait for bureacracy to happen before we could grant lethal aid. We can make our own decisions now.
👍👍👍👍 we’d still be waiting for the Ink too dry before we could send Lethal aid
I don’t think that’s true. Co-ordination and agreement across EU nation ministers is needed only if you want to spend EU funds. You can do what you like if you spend your own money; which is what we have done.
That said I agree Ukraine is a coming of age for the EU.
That is not true in defence related issues. Good answer, well presented, but, wrong.
Fail.
Slightly of piste here but could be quite worrying the CEO of V group the largest merchant ship management company had asked for NATO Naval escorts through the Black Sea ,NATO has stated that countries bordering such as Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey would be sending assets out too Clear bouyant Seamines that have been laid in the NW of the Black Sea but will not provide escorts for merchant vessels Hope it doesn’t go South like the Tanker wars of the Iran/ Iraq conflict when any State registered ship was targeted
Probably this CEO is trying to find a way round the decision by the insurance companies to refuse insurance cover for ships in the Black Sea.
Could be Lloyd’s of London don’t like ringing the Luchins bell when ships are lost ,
All true of course, but absolutely nothing here that an average thirteen year-old wouldn’t have been able to write.