European countries should prepare for the possibility that the war in Ukraine continues for years while simultaneously rebuilding their own armed forces and defence industries, a senior US defence official has told allies.

US Under Secretary of War for Policy Elbridge Colby said Washington could not predict when the conflict would end and warned that Russia was rebuilding both its military forces and its defence industrial capacity.

Speaking at the Ukraine Defence Contact Group, Colby said: “From the standpoint of the Department of War, however, we cannot predict when this tragic war will end. As you all well know, Russia is reconstituting its forces and its defense industrial capacity.”

He continued: “We must be prepared for a protracted conflict and for Ukraine’s requirements to persist in the months and years ahead, and we must also be prepared for other plausible contingencies as well.”

Colby said European allies were increasingly taking the leading role in conventional defence and providing the bulk of military support for Ukraine, describing that transition as already producing tangible results. He said continued European funding of American-origin weapons was helping Ukrainian forces maintain their defence and deny further Russian advances. Colby argued that Europe now needed to prepare for sustained procurement rather than treating support for Ukraine as a short-term requirement. He said: “Europe must plan now for sustained procurement that supports both Ukraine’s long-term force reconstitution and Europe’s own defense requirements.”

The US official said European investment in defence industry should increase while remaining complementary to American production, and warned that political commitments alone would not provide the military capability required. Colby said: “Real money and industrial capacity must be put to work.”

He also said the United States would continue supporting allied procurement for Ukraine through the JumpStart mechanism, including the acquisition of air defence interceptors.

The shift was described by Colby as part of the US administration’s “NATO 3.0” approach, under which European allies assume greater responsibility for the conventional defence of the continent. In his closing remarks, Colby said the United States was seeking to “adapt America’s strategic posture in Europe and transition to a more durable and powerful European-led conventional defence”.

George Allison
George Allison is the founder and editor of the UK Defence Journal. He holds a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and specialises in naval and cyber security topics. George has appeared on national radio and television to provide commentary on defence and security issues. Twitter: @geoallison

4 COMMENTS

  1. Colby says “European Allie’s are increasingly taking the lead in conventional support and providing the bulk of military support for Ukraine” while the US figures out how to plunder more South American countries and prepare backdoor invasions of other NATO members.

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