Ukrainian President Zelensky vowed to fight Russians in ‘forests, fields and on shores’, invoking Winston Churchill as he addressed the British Parliament.
Speaking via video link to the Commons, the Ukrainian president said:
“We will not give up, and we will not lose. We will fight to the end in the sea, in the air. We will fight for our land, whatever the costs. We will fight in the forests, in the fields, on the shores, in the streets.”
Ukrainian President Zelensky vowed to fight Russians in 'forests, fields and on shores', invoking Winston Churchill as he addressed the British Parliament. pic.twitter.com/mum7efjwBm
— George Allison (@geoallison) March 8, 2022
Zelensky also provided a day-by-day account of the invasion by Russia, describing it as war Ukraine “didn’t start and we didn’t want”. He also said:
“We do not want to lose what we have, what is ours… just the same way as you once didn’t want to lose your country when the Nazis started to fight your country and you had to fight for Britain.”
“We will not surrender, we will not lose, we will go to the end,” he added.
The United Kingdom today claimed that Russia is likely to be ramping up claims Ukraine is developing nuclear or biological weapons as “retrospective justification” for its invasion.
In its latest intelligence update on Tuesday, the Ministry of Defence said:
“Since the end of February there has been a notable intensification of Russian accusations that Ukraine is developing nuclear or biological weapons. These narratives are long standing but are currently likely being amplified as part of a retrospective justification for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.”
Additionally, Western weapons have been flooding into Ukraine over the last few days as NATO transport move cargo to an airfield in Poland near the border with Ukraine.
The cargo is then moved into Ukraine by road to assist in the fight against Russia.
🚨 #UKRAINE | Western weapons have been flooding into Ukraine over the last few days. This video shows just one day of NATO transport aircraft moving cargo to Poland near the border with Ukraine. The cargo is then moved into Ukraine by road to assist in the fight against Russia. pic.twitter.com/qAkLOjtoO9
— George Allison (@geoallison) March 8, 2022
‘We’ve got lethal and non-lethal aid into Ukraine since the invasion’ says Defence Secretary Ben Wallace recently confirmed.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace confirms that the UK has been able to get "lethal and non-lethal" weapons into Ukraine
Live: https://t.co/X3flQUBL0r
📺 Sky 501, Virgin 602, Freeview 233 and YouTube pic.twitter.com/HXkLjQFw3d
— Sky News (@SkyNews) February 28, 2022
In an interview with Sky News, Ben Wallace confirmed that the UK is sending supplies to Ukraine.
Well he had to invoke Churchill.
I wonder how Boris took that? In his mind he is Churchill reincarnated.
To be fair Boris actually allowed Ben Wallace to do something useful with NLAWS etc. Many others would have sat on their hands.
Lets see a bit more Churchillian “Action This Day” over UK defence investment. Then I might even start to take Boris seriously.
Although I suspect that orders for war stocks of a lot of things that have been run down will already have been placed.
To use an old phrase- I knew Churchill & Boris you’re no Churchill. Maybe Churchill the advert dog on a good day. Resign & let someone competant do the job properly. Truely is the blind leading the blind at the moment.
But Boris did put through extra defence capital spend which reversed endless financial cuts and might have lead to an increase.
He also instantly developed the T32 program at the dispatch box!
It would be ibteresting to check if that money was actually released. Boris has a bad habit of promising lots of money but never delivering. No idea in this case.
Boris been good for defence we are Europe’s biggest defence spenders .
He will no doubt want to keep the ‘Global Britain’ idea going so will have to step up defence spending in order to keep pace with other nations in Europe.
The very same Europe (or at least EU) that is trying to sue us at moment for 2.7 billion euro.
Honestly its pathetic, however ive given up with how low the EU as a collective will go in certain situations.
As the legal case pre-dates Brexit technically it is trying to sue itself as the UK was part of the framework at that time.
Personally id just keep kicking the can down the road and let them waste millions on messing about, give them the phone number of a paralegal somewhere who will ‘have to get back to them’.
Type 32 was developed ‘at pace’. 😉
Who do you suggest takes over?
That I don’t know. The Tories need to put better people forward rather than leaving it to a blustering blunderer, unfaithful, compulsive liar who nevr seems to master his brief. Something is very wrong with the party if they are impressed with BJ’s handling of this. Compared to what?-His previous gaffs?
The world needs a lot better than a minor celeb Mickey mouse in number 10.
I like asking this question as no one ever gives an answer for an alternative! We can sit and criticise as much as we want but if the ones being critical cant even give a solution it speaks volumes. Sadly most of the qualities in a person you mentioned can be applied to alot of politicians and those they cant have alternative redeeming ones instead. The opposition are a complete mess and have no leader that appears to be able to take over and organise the party. The Tories do have a handful of individuals who could replace Boris but… Read more »
Frank is coming across as a bit of a troll (no offense Frank) so am pleased at you sensibly and politely calling it out. It’s a shame, as this government I believe is sincerely awful whilst at the same time labour imho is unelectable. Side topic, but I do believe our political system needs a revamp. Or we need a left wing party that stops with identity politics and race hustling, supports the working class of this country and is against mass immigration. I don’t understand why this can’t be the case. We have seen wages go up when immigration… Read more »
How about Penny Moremount she has something I dont quite know but I bet she would be a good change at less.
You’d like to have a cheeky five knuckle while watching her on PMQ’s more like…
Boris leads a charmed life. Hancock took the fall for nepotism of the covid contracts and Ukraine is a great diversion from the Brexit NI protocol and the energy cost of living crisis, the Surrey belt rebellion against green belt housing and the wealth tax which is surely coming…to pay for defence spending. Ukraine refugees might even get rid of Priti Patel for him. Luckiest prime minister alive…or dead 😂
Energy cost crisis is nothing to do with the UK or Brexit sadly, the world is facing the same issue regardless of which place it is.
And leaders all over are making the same mistakes to appease the loudest voices. Or else they all truly want to destroy their own economies and society. Lawlessness grows.
That’s as may be, but when election time comes round the party in power gets the blame. Labour wasn’t to blame for the financial crisis emanating from the US prime mortgage scandal but they paid price. It’s the way the world works. Come the genera election the Tories will be promoting the fastest covid vaccine rollout and Zelensky will be a honorary Conservative peer and a re-incarnation of Churchill.
Cant have 2 Churchill reincarnations surely! Boris needs to hold that title.
True Labor fell foul to the 2008 crash, but Blair throwing the towel in and leaving Brown to the wolves didnt help. Plus Brown borrowing as much money as physically possible when it was at the highest interest rates in living memory was just political suicide.
😂
My understanding is that Brown went into a trance lime state in which he prophesied the financial crisis and took prompt avoiding action. I’m no economist so I can’t judge. Anyway, we’re still here for the current crisis. Life goes on. 😉
We certainly are, and still paying for the 2008 one lol
And so they will. Even once occupied Ukraine is awash with weapons and a true hatred of the Russians. A long and painful insurgency awaits Ivan.
Breaking: Poland has just gifted their entire Mig 29 fleet to the USA. That means it’s now up to Biden whether or not he gives them to Ukraine. That decision has already been made I guess. The US will backfill Poland with F16s and the Migs will go to Ukraine (Polish pilots?).
That is such amazing news, for a time it was uncertain as to whether Poland would do that, I assume the jets would be flown by Ukrainian pilots although maybe Polish pilots could be given the option to go as Ukrainian pilots.
Louis , Just like during the Korean War when Russian pilots ,flew Migs for the North Ko reans and took on the Americans with plausible denierbility As all actions took place over North Korea, no proof of downed Russians could be proved but they did fly NK migs
Wow that is big news. I was being to think that deal was falling through.
My thoughts, but this seems to suggest that the US is keen to rearm the Ukrainian Air Force. I know the Polish upgraded their Migs sometime ago with Western electronics, so I wonder what goodies the US might supply to go with the ‘new’ planes.
Interesting.
Cheers CR
Good news if true. The Poles and all of NATO know how ‘brilliant and useful’ the MiGs actually are in a combat situation so probably want shot of them anyway. This is their one chance to sell them for real $$$$ as there is a very high demand for used MiG29’s this week only. Sound like a carpet sales pitch? So I am guessing that 25 or so low miles F16’s planes will be taken from National Guard or some other such place and sent to Poland PDQ. It is not like the US is short of F16s anyway. Poland… Read more »
They gave them for free….the news report says.
Let’s see some official details on this.
Congress and The House are behind this so it will happen if Biden wants it to.
The US are returning the complement by donating some free replacements right back, you would assume F16s or some such. It’s win win all around really. America gets to show leadership and really kick Putin in the teeth. Ukraine get more jets that I can usefully use. finally Poland gets reenforced with more appropriate fighters. win win win. Really good news, hopefully there can be some other appropriate fighters found for Ukraine as it’s air power that would save Ukraine. If the west somehow manages to keep the Ukrainian airforce in play, there may be a fighting chance that Putin… Read more »
Always some slight of hand here… As said, they will be replaced in the Polish inventory with Second hand F16C’s from US stocks. The US has a growing number of available examples as the F35A gradually replaces it in the USAF. All it will mean is a few Air National Guard units will have to retain their current assets a while longer. So the Polish will operate their advanced F16 variants, 40 or so ex US F16C’s and 48 F35A’s. They then have the opportunity to upgrade and rework the second hand examples, it’s gravy for the Polish Airforce and… Read more »
Yes, just read the yanks were furious about this and will poo poo it. Who knows why, scared of Russia maybe?
I would suggest a press release to say the Migs can use NATO standoff.weapons like storm shadow. Would create some nice bit of ambiguity. Migs could fly up to the Polish border but stay in Ukrainian airspace where some Typhoons happen to be flying on the Polish side then Ukraine claims it launched stand off weapons from.some where near the Polish boarder 😉
I’d say do it with F35s; them being stealth means that it’s more deniable.
Will these new MiG 29s be able to fire Western weapons? I’m assuming so.
I wonder if it would be possible to fly an AWACS above Poland, close to the Ukrainian border and feed info to the Ukrainian MiG 29 pilots to give them an edge?
Good point on the f35, weapons are internal some no one wat h the airbase could say they took off loaded and returned empty. The Migs don’t have to be able to use all NATO weapons, some dummy missiles that get dropped in a river/field somewhere in Western Ukraine would suffice ;). Some stand off weapons can get mid flight updates.
It would make a lot more sense to equip F-35s with these weapons since they will have long term use for them and they are far more compatible than Eastern planes.
If you are thinking about it in terms of ways for NATO military aircraft such as F-35s to launch attacks against Russia without being caught, though, you are looking at this the wrong way. That’s a completely different ballpark. AWACS might be possible though I wouldn’t know.
The Polish MiGs actually have a Rockwell Collins electronic core.
They were upgraded/rebuilt in 2014 – open source google it.
So they can probably use NATO LGB’s and things like Sidewinder.
Don’t know about air launches cruise as that would take a bit more: I suspect.
I don’t believe they can. The Polish examples use dwindling stocks of old Warsaw Pact missiles.
Upgrades where limited to some cockpit improvements, radios, IFF and a small Radar upgrade …. As far as I am aware.
Are the Polish MiGs modified to fire/drop decent weapons?
Could well be.
I’d be surprised if they didn’t have podded laser guidance integrated?
Answer my own question
https://www.flightglobal.com/picture-polish-air-force-receives-first-upgraded-mig-29/110725.article
If these Migs were flying close to nato jets on the Polish side of the boarder it would be hard to distiquiowho fired a storm shadow missile. Just load the Migs up with dummy missiles:) tell the world they have the capability . It’s the kinda stunt Putin would pull and has been in Eastern Ukraine before he invaded this time.
Good spot. And for this reason the US has vetoed the deal.
US has a surplus of some 1000+ F16s to spare. So your right. Not going to be a problem finding 30 decent replacements.
Correction 1200 active service. 54 in reserve. Production line still open. So 30 replacements from reserve.
Does any one have an idea why this news of Polish MIG 29’s was made public , I see no reason for it to be?
Propaganda
Putin you got it wrong big time, boyo.
Or more likely Western politicians falling over themselves to show they are doing enough.
CR
Why not?
Public support for Ukraine?
Support the Ukrainians have asked for?
My concern is getting the MIG29’S to the Ukraine intact , they could of made it public wants they are in Ukraine hands.
It is more to do with pilot retraining, I would think.
The Polish jets are unique. A MiG airframe and jets with NATO avionics.
So the Ukrainians will need testing from the US on how to use the fundamentally US systems.
Also this would be to get round the US defence export controls. Nothing to stop Poland giving the exported bits back to a US base.
US can then export to whoever they want?
If your using the US as an intermediary doesnt work unless you announce the fact.
And i think the decision to make the US rebuttal public this morning was an even worse one. The US has publicly b*tch slapped the Polish government just when unity was required.
Agreed, Poland has been showing others in NATO the way to think and act in regard to its military, certainly for the last 5 or so years! They are currently the tip of the NATO spear and know it!
JDAM?
Yeh would be a relatively quick one to intergate I should think…
Cheers CR
Hopefully phasers and photon torpedoes. 😁
In all seriousness though that was a smaet move. Poland couldnt risk retaliation from Russia whilst they are the main point of exit for refugees fleeing from Ukraine and main point of entrance for resupply to Ukranian army.
Now its upto USA if they handover the Migs to Ukraine. Which they will do.
Who actually cares if Putin is livid. Not many people this side of the Volga.
Agreed
Cheers CR
https://www.wsws.org/en/articles/2022/03/07/ukr–m07.html
👍
Did you mean to link to the World Socialist Web Site? Those guys are Trots. Remember to pack your metal collar. 😎
“The WSWS is the online publication of the world Trotskyist movement, the International Committee of the Fourth International.”
Whoops…😭
Fine.
It’s a standard tactic. Sound human for a bit with some decent analysis, until you have lulled (and Google) in, then put the bizarre stuff in the bottom half.
I’m not sure just which UK public figures are aligned with them today, but there could be a couple of comedians and a couple of politicians, and a couple of senior Trade Union bods.
Well it obviously worked on me. The far left is an alien world for me I’m afraid. I’m glad you’re around to spot snakes in the grass 😉
I think my brain has actually melted and dribbled out my ears. It’s scary stuff.
What is truly ironic is that these so-called socialists are actually supporting a fascist government.
Thank you Paul for that wonderful insight into some proper 1984 double think.
Fascinating logic indeed. In any event it seems its not going to happen.
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war-us-says-polands-offer-of-mig-29-fighter-jets-to-be-passed-to-ukraine-not-tenable-12561341
The US clearly doesn’t want to give Putin any justification for his ‘NATO is an evil empire’ theory.
It is a shame, I do think the US are being to timid here. I can understand the logic of not taking forward a no fly zone ( and support that stance even if it makes me feel a bit sick). But providing planes to allow a sovereign nation to fight an invader, that we should do. There needs to be more of a push back and make Putin react at present NATO has pushed itself into a passive stance ( we can only act if you actually attack a NATO state. This will be taken as western weakness unfortunately.
It’s a close one. Given that Russia does not have air dominance and that the MIGS can’t fire PGM think there are bigger fish to fry.
While Kyiv is important the fact is that when the evacuation of civilians is complete Russian forces may well just walk into Mariupol. If they take it then Putin will have achieved his probable objectives; Donbas, Luhansk and a land bridge to Crimea. Every effort must be put into preventing him taking Mariupol (and Odesa). These might help. Homegrown MLRS
https://en.defence-ua.com/news/ukraines_new_multiple_launch_rocket_system_vilkha_m_undergoing_final_stage_of_its_official_qualification_trials_program-1993.html
Hi Paul, Yes – Odessa is Ukraine’s main port (on the only surviving stretch of coastline), and keeping it under Ukrainian control will be a key strategic battle during the next few weeks.
Agreed Alan. But the spotlight now is on the airstrikes on Mariupol. That’s why Zelensky is pushing for the no fly zone. Wallace had said we are thinking of sending Starstreak missiles. Not sure how these improve on Stingers.
Google maps says it’s 10 hrs 45 minutes drive from Lviv to Odessa; current traffic conditions. Best get a move on.
Ivan is about to find himself in the meat grinder – and judging by the scared little, cross eyed faces on those Ukraine has already captured, I don’t think he is going to enjoy his time there. Key thing is to keep open the supply lines – Hungary has said it won’t allow weapons to cross; I would be interested to know if there is going to be any ‘magic’ in use to keep the roads from Romania and Poland free from harassment; I can imagine that the skies will be fully lit up from the NATO side of the… Read more »
USA shamefully trying to shut Polands gift down. This appeasement must stop. We must not casually sell the lives of Ukrainians for a status quo that passed away once Putin invaded. He crossed the Rubicon. Western leadership is failing us badly. Roosavelt gave Britain 50 destroyers in 1940 & loads of other gear under lend lease, but Biden tries to stop another country doing someting similar to another that’s been brutally & deceitfully invaded after we all failed to deter that invasion despite back slapping each other on our efforts, which the USA was the most strident about! If you… Read more »
I’m not sure why they are making this so hard. If you don’t want to fly these MiGs from a NATO country, send them to Moldova, get Ukraine to pick them up. Reward Moldova with aid, military assistance, quality street, whatever it takes.
Or fly the MiGs to an airport or Road near the Polish border, call in the Ukrainian tractor division to tow them across the border, job done.
Oversimplified I know, but the west needs to be more solution focused and get the job done.
Neither Poland nor Moldova want to be seen as the stepping off point for this.
I have to agree with you on this one, although I don’t even think it’s appeasement. I think it’s a show of complete unwillingness to contemplate a war with another power ( Nuclear) on the part of America, even if that power is far weaker. I actually really worry what this would mean for NATO going forward and how Russia and China will view this ( as a permission in other areas) They are unlikely to see it as trying to de-escalate and will instead see it as the fact the USA can be intimidated out of a fight and… Read more »
If Zelensky emerges victorious from this awful conflict he’s going to be seen like Superman (except by Putin, and probably the CCP). Or possibly a modern day King Leonidas.
Well, if he does that he will then have consigned Russian pretensions of power to history?
ATM I’m not seeing a rapid victory either way.
If the new MiG’s are provided and have some better toys those Russian convoys are going to be obliterated.
I think that may have already happened. However, yes, at the moment it looks like a drawn out conflict (although having said that it’s hard to see Russia affording to keep ~200 000 troops in theater for very long??)
Unfortunately that is looking extremely unlikely. The capital is slowly being surrounded and once that happens it will be cut off from supplies. There are some where around 200 tanks and 1000 armoured vehicles heading down from Belarus and more than that will be heading north if the coastal city falls and the landing force is able to depart. I fear the real war hasn’t really started yet, and the heavy shelling of the capital from 4 sides will start in the next week or two. Let’s hope the Ukraine army can’t hold them off but sat images of the… Read more »
Unless, of course, the Ukrainian get their hands on some upgrades MiG29s and start taking out the convoys.
The US has said that plan is unworkable as it would risk putting NATO at war with Russia. Whether that is PR whilst they do it on the sly, who knows.
Maybe: who knows?
As Gary Kasparov has stated on Twitter, short of going to war – maybe the US/NATO needs to start doing things that Putin doesn’t like.
Worth remembering that before King Leonidas went to his death at Thermopylae he had heard the prophecy given the Spartans by the Oracle of Delphi that either the Persians would devastate Spartan lands or a king of Sparta would die. And that when Leonidas chose the 300 he selected men who had sons in order that if they fell in battle their names would live on.
The Leonidas comparison is not really fair for a number of reasons – principally one needs to look at why Sparta was a militaristic nation; most Spartans were soldiers, because they had enslaved their neighbours, and so their fields were tilled by these slaves – but also the preponderance of bitter enslaved (7 for each Spartan citizen) people made the society extremely paranoid. I would not say that the Persian empire was perfect, but compared to Sparta it was a very free society, with reasonable laws; for a comparison Persia was quite similar to ancient Rome, and most of the… Read more »
Yes, I certainly agree about the militaristic nature of Spartan society. Though I think it is fair to note that women in Sparta enjoyed more rights and freedom than they did in Athens. Nevertheless, if the illness of Leonidas and the 300 Hundred to stand and fight and die for their country is not heroic nothing is.
Interesting to read your comments, gents.
I often feel that issues in the Classical world are sometimes still pertinent to our own, and its study is always an education.
One things for certain, he will have a line of film producers knocking at his door to make a film over it!
We need to continue to make every effort to get lethal aid into Ukraine and keep the meat grinder going. Polish MIG’s gifted and flown by Ukrainian pilots (or Polish in Ukrainian insignia for plausible deniability) would be useful but surely making every effort to get them more SAM’s would pay bigger dividends more quickly? It’s not about gaining air superiority at this stage, simply about denying it to Ivan? Even if they take Kyiv and the other big cities 40 million angry and proud Ukrainians well supplied in arms for The West aren’t going to result in a happy… Read more »
The RuAF isn’t using much in terms of air power, other than cruise missiles. The Russian artillery is a bigger problem, if not the biggest problem. They need something that can go 20-30 miles and attack an artillery site. Like a mini-theater land attack missile.
Unconfirmed…
https://romaninukraine.com/ukrainians-use-mlrs-to-hit-russian-ship/
That looks like the one from 2-3 days ago.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10586145/Cheering-Ukrainian-navy-hits-Russian-war-ship-Black-Sea-Odessa.html
Could well be. The interesting thing is that Ukraine has a home grown MLRS. I wonder how many.
I think the west is failing to stand up & stand by Ulraine. We should be doing more than sanctions, fine words, weapons & intelligence.
Letting Putin lie so blatently & invade, ludicrous demands & threats, murdering civilians, bogus cease fires to draw civilians into death traps, shelling nuclear plants; just toying & tormenting. Wasting thousands of Russian lives too. Call his bluff-kick him out of Ukraine.
Otherwise we’re just throwing Ukraine under the bus, albeit in the nicest way(!). Too afraid of doing the wrong thing that we’re too afraid to do the right thing.
Frank you’ve got to hope that lots of good stuff, support, intel is getting given from the West to the Ukrainian forces behind the scenes and we don’t want all this stuff publicised for obvious reasons. Easy to say from the comfort and safety of our homes but I hope everyone of those Russian and Belarusian tanks and artillery pieces has a atm allocated to it and that the Ukraine Airforce can even take out some invading ships down south! Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦 and it’s people! 🇦🇺 🇳🇿 🇬🇧 🇵🇱
And if calling the bluff goes wrong, then what?
In many wars if one side had been given weapons, intelligence and funding from so many countries then the outcomes would have been massively different.
Ukraine is getting an awful lot of help both militarily and financially. The only way to help more is to go for direct action against Russia and that brings us back to my first point, we go in, the stuff hits the fan and he presses the big red button then what?
If we’re too frightened to step in & fail to counter his threat by reminding him of our own, we fail to stand up as a credible nuclear power. We may as well have none, surrender & let him do what he wants. Meanwhile a nation of 40 million+ gets butchered. God forbid he uses a tactical nuke, but if or when that happens he’ll lose most of the support he still has across the world & be proven beyond dealing with. This is a real test for us. Are we really up to the values we espouse? Keep turning… Read more »
Thats exactly why the Nato alliance exists with its policies, the ultimate test would be if he attacks a Nato country then the west has no choice.
How exactly is the West turning its back? Most of Europe plus several other countries further afield such as Japan, Australia, Canada etc are all supporting Ukraine in various ways.
Spine tingling stuff. Magnificent . Surely we have to think about a no fly zone ??
We have thought about it and its a firm no from all sides who would be involved for the obvious reasons.
Hi James, A UN (not NATO) sponsored No Fly Zone (NFZ) is feasible.
See comments from retired RAF Air Marshall, Greg Bagwell on his Twitter feed ……. @gregbagwell
He has also been on BBC Radio during the last few days – and published an essay on the Kings College London (KCL).
Greg is an authoritative source, having commanded NFZs in the past.
He doesn’t claim it will be easy, but it is refreshing to read a professional airman disputing some of the myths that are being, too often, repeated ad nauseam.
Which non Nato allies are going to step up to cover this exactly?
Under the UN umbrella is great but we cant put in Nato nations under this guise as it will play straight into Putin’s play book.
The UN cant realistically ask Sweden or Finland as they are firmly on Putin’s wish list and is very few other countries anywhere near which are logistically able to get effective air assets into the area to police this.
James, I see no reason why a United Nations NFZ could not include some countries within NATO – although acting as sovereign states in their own right. We need to stop playing by Putin’s rulebook, seize the initiative – and start doing things he doesn’t like. Posted by Stuart Crawford (a sometime contributor to UKDZ) “Reading @brookehollandl ‘s outstandingly informative HoC publication on No Fly Zones (NFLs), I think we need to re-assess the pros and cons. I understand why folk are cautious, but there may be scope for some sort of partial NFZ and/or safe air corridors to be… Read more »
I made this point about the UN being a waste of time a week or so ago. What countries that are neither a NATO or EU country would be both willing and able to; a) deploy the requisite forces b) be capable of sustaining them c) are willing to pull the trigger if required The answer is a big fat zero. Some might say China could – how many NATO nations would be happy to see an ostensibly Russian ally rock up in Europe with the tools needed to do the job? Same with India to a lesser extent. The… Read more »
Steve, I don’t believe the United Nations as an international institution is a “waste of time” …… As stated above, a UN NFZ would undoubtedly include some countries who are also NATO members. Plus we should not allow ourselves to be stymied into non-action through fear of upsetting the Russian president. Some potential, powerful non-NATO members of a UN NFZ …….. Australia, Japan, Israel, South Korea, India etc (And in principle, why not a Chinese air element). But running a NFZ is beyond my pay scale (!); but perhaps have a read at someone like Greg Bagwell who does know… Read more »
Hi Alan, Yes, I know of the geezer – but I disagree with him. Of the countries you have mentioned, Australia, South Korea, Japan and Israel are firmly, both feet, in the western geopolitical camp, and geopolitical alliances and dependencies are exactly the reason why I believe your proposed UN enforced NFZ is unworkable. Let’s be honest, all the blokes wearing the blue hats have to do once they’re settled in and have the lay of the land, is take the blue hats off. That’s why a UN intervention would be unacceptable for both NATO/EU and Russia/China. Now I wouldn’t… Read more »
Hi Steve Good to debate with you …… and you make some good points. It’s not my proposed NFZ, though – I’m simply putting out “there” that there is a body of expert opinion that does support the concept in general terms (from a legal and operational basis) – albeit all agree that implementation will be challenging. Previous NFZs have been run under the auspices of the United Nations. As for contributing nations, I agree that it’s very difficult to find one that might be acceptable to Putin. In fact it’s very hard to find any credible Russian ally these… Read more »
Yes, thanks Alan, You do make a credible argument too, and you may turn out to be correct! Without wanting to be ‘that bloke who disagrees with you all the time’ (and I just want to emphasise that I don’t disagree with everything you say) but… When you frame it the way you have, it all seems very plausible. However, if they’re unable to operate in a very complex airspace, they’re useless and pointless. The Chinese will deploy everything they have to sweep up everything they can. All disguised. There’s no chance of a UN ground force Anyway, I… I… Read more »
Yes, I think based upon their observations of Libya, if we were to do this over Ukraine Russia would view it as a declaration of war against them. Very glad that we are not going to do this.
The man has guts, he’s staying the capital knowing Putin wants him dead and he has a target painted on his back You don’t see many political leaders who have shown that level of leadership, resolve and willingness to risk themselves. Ukraine is lucky to have had him. Let’s hope his leadership and the sacrifice of the Ukrainian armed forces can save their country and bring piece If they do manage it they should be let into NATO and the EU immediately with a big red line drawn across the border. We need to consider that with all the other… Read more »
The Polish MiGs mean + 28 aircraft for the Ukrainians. Slovakia & Bulgaria could supply a further 22. That would give the Ukrainians a nice little air force of 50 NATO upgraded MiGs + whatever they have surviving. That’s a nice little Air Force. Sort them out with western missiles and bombs and the Russians will be worried. We should also look at supplying HIMARS or GMLRS, simple to use, has good range and will make Ivan disperse or face destruction.
Do they have the infrastructure to still fly and operate them from?
That’s the question isn’t it. Maybe that’s why the yanks have said no to supplying MIGs, the infrastructures either not there or unable to be accessed perhaps? Posing the risk of Ukraine planes flying from NATO countries.
From what I understand though, Ukraine still has planes flying so they must be coming from somewhere.
I just wish BJ would use some hair jell or spray!
Before everyone gets too excited appears the US doesn’t want Polish Mig 29’s going into Ukraine via US bases in Germany. Might involve us having to eyeball Putin. But if anyone doesn’t believe this will end in a nuclear war I admire your optimism. Putin won’t accept defeat, being replaced or the risk of assassination. He would rather bring the entire edifice of western civilisation down. So suggest everyone stops worrying when the Type 26 or 31 or the Tempest is going to arrive and starts to look at do we wait for the nuclear attack and loose 600 million… Read more »
You do realise a first strike would in no way at all knock out all of Russia’s capability to retaliate?
A huge number of its ICBMs are mobile land based units which we simply do not know the locations of all of them, plus the submarine based one.
So using your suggestion Russia would be mostly wiped out aswell as most of the west when the retaliate.
We need T45s stationed around the country to provide some defense even if not quite ABM
Jesus that’s bleak.
Exactly. There is no rhyme or reason to someone like Putin. We should be most careful in our military aid as the tiniest excuse would…well..What? The chap is clearly unhinged, giving out statements a 5 year old would be proud of. The anti tank and hand held anti air stuff is really proving its worth and is relatively low-key (although mega useful), supplying regiments of rocket launchers, a new Air Force, complete air defence systems and so on…? Red rag stuff. Keep them fed, their escaping loved ones safe, and ramp up the Russian misery financially and on the ground.… Read more »
I disagree with this. For years Putin has been vocal on his views of Ukraine joining NATO. Any analyst cannot say his current behaviour is in any way a surprise nor from his point of view irrational.
I do not condone his behaviour, it’s horrific, but to paint him as some sort of retard or mad man I feel isn’t accurate either.
I imagine he probably is feeling an incredibly large amount of pressure ATM, so would not be surprised if his cool demeanour is starting to crack a bit
John, I believe Putin’s invasion has nothing to do with Ukraine joining NATO.
Putin’s actions are really in response to potential EU expansion.
The example of a prosperous, democratic, relatively incorrupt Ukraine on Russian borders would be a direct threat to the legitimacy of Putin’s authoritarian regime.
I agree with you, though, he is not a madman – but has certainly made a serious miscalculation.
Interesting thoughts, thanks for sharing
There is more in the chain to launch a nuclear strike than just Putin, I somehow don’t think his inner circle would allow a nuclear option and would effectively block it from happening.
Greg, I don’t agree. Putin doesn’t get to dictate Western foreign policy. Admittedly, we need to be careful in our response – obviously these jets cannot be operated by Ukraine from the soil of a NATO member. But we have already supplied thousands of other weapons to Ukraine – NLAWs, Stingers etc These are already in action against Russian forces. In principle, these MiG-29s are no different – arms supplied to an independent sovereign state to assist in its defence against an unprovoked aggression. I also feel there is no evidence that Putin, ” .. would rather bring the entire… Read more »
Hi James, I accept your points but would assume every Russian ballistic missile submarine would have one of ours looking at its derrière. But in a first strike, and I assure you I am not a nuclear war proponent as such, within 20 minutes of launch the command and control systems would no longer exist with whomever is on the receiving end. It’s purely do you want to go first and cope with whatever is left to respond or go second and hope you have something left?. But we are dealing with a narcissist who is openly using banned weapons… Read more »
The West will never initiate, its all on a retaliation basis so it would be Russia who went first. Even after an attack the likes of Ballistic submarines will have a launch program in case they are unable to obtain communication lines, otherwise is no point in having them. The submarines themselves are also exceptionally hard to find, that again is the point of them. Russia however as I mentioned has a vast fleet of wheeled ICBM launchers, im sure its near 400 in numbers and with the worlds largest land mass to spread them out over its totally impossible… Read more »
One things for sure – there are going to be a lot of Ukraine refugees. Just watch the EU try to shove as many as possible into the UK. Whilst I and most here have sympathy with Ukraine I think the UK has already done more than its fair share of taking in Eastern Europeans (see numbers of EU citizens applying for permanent residency, well over estimates). As such numbers in should be very restrictive (doubly so given the EU’s constant vindictiveness to the UK). The only hope for Ukraine (excepting direct Western military intervention which at moment is unlikely… Read more »
Well the immigration and benefits party on the other side of the house have already started moaning about the immigration situation. The UK will end up having to take possibly hundreds of thousands of people from Ukraine which is the right thing to do. I’m in no way saying we shouldnt help but the UK really really does not have the capacity to house this many additional people on top of whats already flooding in illegally. As you say the EU will exploit the situation very much not in favour of the UK, wouldnt be surprised if France sets up… Read more »
Agree James. I feel it incredibly weak that the UKs answer to any global problem is mass immigration to the UK, or having to fight the msm to justify why they aren’t allowing mass immigration.
Proper support should be provided for and paid for to house as many refugees as possible as close to Ukraine as possible.
I think our Govt has made a right fookup of refugees. They have said close families and others can come to a total of 200k, which is quite reasonable. Just on pure politics we have an incredibly tight labour market in basic services – such as care – and this would have helped us adapt. They forecast the invasion well in advance, and were one of only 3 or 4 countries to get weapons in place in advance. They could have forecast the refugee situation too. They will eventually set up a centre in Lille. But so slow have they… Read more »
Boris cant personally handle every single aspect of what is going on and in some cases its probably best he doesnt. However the UK has done an awful lot in this situation and well ahead of what other countries did, naturally the good things will be forgotten the second the opposition and the press can start banging on about a couple of faults. Lets also not forget the UK has been hugely invested in Ukraine since 2014 training a good number of soldiers. No one knew the invasion was actually going to happen (the arms sent clearly as a deterrent)… Read more »
Agree absolutely, and I’m not going for our Ukr policy. He can’t handle every single thing, so he needs a team in place that can. Yet there is no team. BJ is a mascot and sometimes a salesman, but also a dilettante and incapable of running an administration. He has no sense of personal morality or principle – consider that he seems to have thought that Covid guidance / laws are for *them* not *me*. As MoL he had some decent people in place and achieved some good things. As PM he stood back in the early time of Covid… Read more »
Appreciate the detailed response and one thing I will massively agree on is that anything good that does get done or achieved is simply swept under the carpet by the press.
The UK really needs to find itself again and start believing in what it can do as opposed to this internal rot that the country has in which every single decision has to be a problem.
Agree with that.
.
They aren’t asylum seekers or economic migrants they are refugees from a war that’s happening in our backyard. They want to be in their home country with their old lives…. not here having to start over with nothing. You talk like they were hoping for war so they could take the chance to emigrate to the UK! I certainly don’t agree that we should accept a mad rush without visas/checks as some on the left seem to be advocating but we were told that this was going to hit us financially and we will have to do our bit.
No i did not say they wanted the war! What I’m saying you can bet other nations ( France) and organizations ( EU) who have been unfriendly ( and still are) will try to push their responsibilities onto the UK. The are issuing Schengen visas and will push as many Ukrainian refugees into the UK as they can. Thats why France was going bonkers about 50 refugees – they are trying to set the agenda.
Meanwhile the US bottles it and rejects Polands offer of its mig29’s. Round of applause to the good ol us of a…
Curious decision that, really dont understand them.
Suspect the issue is that the whole thing became public in the first place, and there is now a game of pass the parcel.
Though all the statements from everyone are very carefully worded, with delineated loopholes 🙂.
Putin will negotiate if he takes Mariupol. Then he has won the core of Ukraine’s economic wealth and a land bridge to Crimea.
Personally I think he wants Odessa aswell for long term suffocation of Ukraine, if they have no coastline he can control the country much more economically, also prevents them having a Navy.
Plus he will then get access to the resources in the Black Sea along all of Ukraines coastline.
I think Putin’s game is Black Sea domination, following the Stalin playbook.
When he invaded Georgia, they took half the coastline.
And were they not (under Stalin) scheming to control the Bosporus throughout the middle years of the last century?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Montreux_Convention_Regarding_the_Regime_of_the_Straits#Soviet_Union
He cant take the entire Black Sea coastline, well in his lifetime anyways but he can take a sizeable portion of it.
Spot on.
I’m thinking along the same lines. I don’t think his interest lies with Kyiv considering how pro-western the city is which is probably part of the reason why you haven’t seen major attacks on Kyiv yet. The convoy is there to keep the pressure on while they make moves in other areas of the country. If he takes Mariupol he joins Crimea to separatist states so they no longer have to rely on the bridge that they built to Crimea from Russia. At that point, I can see them trying to take the remainder of Donbass and Luhansk Oblasts and… Read more »
Putin has been aided and abetted by the Patriarch of Moscow, whose silence and support have been a scandal. The Orthodox faithful in Donbas, Luhansk and Crimea voted with their bishops for Putin’ annexations; the economic industrial heart of Ukraine.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/terror-and-security/war-tests-faith-loyalties-ukraine-priests-call-break-russian/
Apparently our Gazelle’s will be replaced by 30 HC135’s
Zelensky is certainly adding to the lexicon of defiance –
Wallace had said we are considering donating Starstreak missiles.
I totally forgot we even had that.
Would it be a game changer for Ukraine? Honestly don’t know much about it or it’s capabilities.
There is a new version which might have a longer range that Stingers. It’s laser guided and supposedly unjammable and unspoofable. But it needs a lot of training. It’s not fire and forget.
Last comment from me under this article. It’s getting way too crowded. In the last fortnight who has put their strategic nuclear forces on 15 minute standby?. Who keeps threatening to use nuclear weapons if anyone dares to stand up to him?. Putin is prepared to countenance the use of nukes, maybe tactical first, but ICBM’s are definitely part of his thought processes. where I live the chances of a nuke arriving will only be if there is one left over from however many MIRV’s the missile carries. Not sure if I was in the UK. As to the UK’s… Read more »