What next for the UK-US special relationship?

Claims on Greenland, attacks on NATO allies, the Chagos Islands, disrespecting British soldiers, and now Iran. The UK-US ‘Special Relationship’ may well be in trouble.

But if it is in trouble the blame lies solely at the feet of President Trump and the US Administration, despite what some members of the UK Conservative Party and Reform UK think.

Let me start with a clear statement about Iran.

I shed no tears for the Supreme Leader and those around him in his murderous regime. The world is a better place without a person who led a country that was a state-sponsor of terrorism, who supported Russia against Ukraine, and who murdered his own protesting citizens. So good riddance I say.

But there were legitimate questions about the US and Israeli approach which are now playing out (and how much these attacks were driven by Israel with the US following behind). The belief seems to have been that decapitating the Iranian leadership would lead to some sort of regime change which would allow the US and Israel to get in and out as quickly and as painlessly as possible.

Any of us who spent time working on Iraq will know the folly of that belief. And so it is playing out, with ongoing attacks on countries in the region and threats against the UK which have brought us into the conflict. President Trump is now saying this could last weeks. What is the plan? I hope there is one. Because we didn’t have a very good one for Iraq and look what happened there.

Meanwhile there has been much handwringing in the UK about our failure to support the US from the start including, as I say, from Conservative and Reform UK politicians who seem determined to put party and self-interest before country.

Anyone who has read my articles on energy policy in Scotland’s Energy Voice know I am no fan of this Government. But they were absolutely right on this one.

The case for attacking Iran was murky at best, and the justification of an immediate threat (different from what had been the case before) unclear. There was no UN Security Council Resolution justifying action. So, the UK’s initial response was correct and proportionate.

This led to howls of anguish and anger from the US. Claims that we were destroying the ‘Special Relationship’ and that we were no longer a reliable ally.

On 02 March, Pete Hegseth, Secretary of War, made his views clear about allies such as the UK (as opposed to Israel) when he said:

‘Israel has clear missions as well for which we are grateful. Capable partners, as we’ve said since the beginning, capable partners are good partners, unlike so many of our traditional allies who wring their hands and clutch their pearls, hemming and hawing about the use of force’.

On 03 March President Trump told The Sun the UK ‘hasn’t been very helpful’.

I’m sorry folks but I won’t let these go without comment. It appears the US believes it can say what it wants about its NATO allies, make claims against the territory of its allies, attack the sacrifices of its soldiers, and yet still expect those self-same allies to do whatever it wants it to do when it decides the time is right.

That’s not the way it works, especially when the justification for action is murky, and certainly not after you have destroyed trust with those allies.

In the past the UK may have been willing to give the US the benefit of the doubt, see for example UK support for US attacks on Libya in April 1986 when other European countries refused to provide support.

However, the actions of President Trump and those around him have destroyed that willingness, and they have no one to blame for this but themselves. If the shoe was on the other foot would those who are complaining about the lack of UK support think the same? Actions have consequences. Abusing your allies has consequences. There can, and must, be no assumption of automatic support.

In reality there have been questions around the nature and strength of the ‘Special Relationship’ for many years, from many US Administrations. Some of those are good questions focussed on the UK’s unwillingness to spend on defence or step up on the right occasions. So, let’s not believe these questions are new ones.

But this latest damage is the fault of the US, not the UK.

So what should the UK do? Well, the worst thing it could do now is to automatically support the US going forward, even if there are legitimate questions. We need to step up when appropriate. We need to spend more on defence. We need to build capabilities. We need to remove capability gaps. We need to play our part.

But we also need to accept that we are in a different world. A world where the US plays by its own rules. A world where you are either with the US, or against it. A world where sometimes you have to say no, and when saying no is part of the ‘Art of the Deal’. It is showing firmness and strength. If there is one thing President Trump despises it is weakness. He may get annoyed, angry and petulant, but firmness is the only way to earn his respect.

So, we need to remain willing to say no when, and if necessary, but also say yes when appropriate.

My former Foreign Office colleagues dealing with the US are not having an easy time at the minute. But the worst they can do is decide it is time to cave to US demands. Only by standing firm now is there any chance of having a mutual ‘Special Relationship’ based on trust and respect.

This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines