In an exclusive report by Lucy Fisher at The Times, it is claimed that the Ministry of Defence have discussed procuring 70 F-35 jets instead of 138 as a ‘minimum credible F-35 fleet’.

It should be noted that the UK is only committed to buy 48 so far.

The report states that Britain could buy only half its target of 138 F-35 jets, according to sources close to the government’s defence review and that “the wider British aspiration to buy 138 of the aircraft over the lifespan of the US-led programme is seen as unlikely to be fulfilled”.

You can read more here.

A recent report from the NAO warns that not enough funding has actually been made available for sufficient F-35 jets. The report titled ‘Carrier Strike – Preparing for deployment’, examines the MoD’s management of the programme since 2017 and the risks towards achieving Carrier Strike’s full capabilities.

According to the National Audit Office:

“The Department has not yet made funding available for enough Lightning II jets to sustain Carrier Strike operations over its life. From 2015, its intention has been to buy 138 Lightning II jets, which will sustain Carrier Strike operations to the 2060s. The Department initially ordered 48 jets but has not yet committed to buying any more. In response to wider financial pressures, it will also receive seven of the 48 jets in 2025, a year later than planned.

Since we reported in 2017, the approved cost of the Lightning II project has increased from £9.1 billion to £10.5 billion (15%), reflecting approvals for capability upgrades, integration of UK weapons and sustainment costs. There will be further cost approvals to upgrade the existing fleet with new software and weapons, and there is a continued risk of cost increases due to exchange rate fluctuations. The Department plans to reassess the number and type of Lightning II jets that it needs in the Integrated Review, but its ability to use Carrier Strike will be constrained if it has fewer jets than planned.”

It should be noted that numbers right now are currently where they’re expected to be and inline with the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review.

2 F-35B in LRIP run 3, 1 F-35B in LRIP run 4, 1 F-35B in LRIP run 7, 4 F-35B in LRIP run 8, 6 F-35B in LRIP run 9, 3 F-35B in LRIP run 10, 2 F-35B in LRIP run 11, 2 F-35B in LRIP run 12 6 F-35B in LRIP run 13, 8 F-35B in LRIP run 14 and 7 F-35B in LRIP run 15. This brings us to 42 in 2023.

There will undoubtedly be many rumours prior to the upcoming defence review and we can only advise that you take everything you read on this subject with a pinch of salt as, for the most part, you will be reading about options or worst case scenarios and not firm plans.
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

281 COMMENTS

  1. looks like the cuts are starting as there is also a rumour going around scrapping the challenger upgrade and warrior upgrade to use the funds towards cyber warfare,and maybe purchase leopard 2 as it would be more cost effective,but again this is only hear say..but as usual when the economy hits a rock,defence is the back up piggy bank..which is absolutely disgusting,but yet lets keep giving money away to countries that hate us..

        • i read a few articles when this came out some was down to tactics but largely rpg,s were just knocking them out,but there again what type of armour was fitted and paid for,i know our challengers have extra armour fitted in times of conflict,like our warriors,i remember going out on exercise in Germany and the warrior i was in clipped a German dustbin truck and the rear corner of the bolt on chobham was ripped off the warrior,needles to say there was hell on we had to quickly hide the side of the warrior and the bit of armour thrown inside the warrior,due to the classified nature,but we did wonder why was it so good

          • Why would the UK need tanks in vast numbers as they did before?

            We provide the Aircraft Carriers etc. why can’t the Germans, Poles etc. provide the tanks and crews?

            First you have to decide your role on the modern battlefield and then get the kit to support that role surely.

          • There is simply no other vehicle that can do the job of a MBT, i.e. taking and holding ground. Then soaking up fire and still being able to continue the mission. Apache for all its brilliance, is still a helicopter that burns through fuel that must transit to and from a resupply site, it can be taken out by a simple RPG. They’re great for ambushes and as mobile artillery, but are slow and vulnerable. Boxer is a lightly armoured 8×8 APC, that will need additional protection for RPGs and has to rely on dismounts to face up to MBTs, who will then be vulnerable to artillery fire. Boxer at present will not a gun larger than a 50 cal, so it cannot provide dismounts with any fire support.

            Apart from its main tank killing role, the MBT plays a massive physiological role on the battlefield, it gets everyone’s attention for both good and bad reasons. If you have one on your side, the opposition tend to focus on the tank ignoring the nearby infantry. Which is great, as it allows you to manoeuvre whilst the tank acts as a bullet magnet. Having been in Iraq and calling on the assistance of a platoon of Challenger 2s. It gives you a massive morale boost to know that they’ve got your backs and are throwing either HESH down the road or using their chain gun. For the opposition seeing an up-armoured 70t Challenger racing towards them and then watching it take multiple RPG hits with no discernible effect, must be seriously demoralizing.

            The number of Challenger 2s we have is simple not sustainable for a future conflict. We should have a minimum of 400. Where these can then be rotated through the regiments, training (BATUS) and storage. By having this number it would also allow us to reinforce a hot zone if say, God forbid, we had a regiment wiped out. With the present 237 tanks, we are struggling to maintain a presence in Estonia, maintain the tanks in Canada and still provide training in the UK. If something kicked off big in another part of the World, what would we send, some infantry in their Jackals and Mastiffs?

            The problem we are facing is a stark choice were there is very little, if any, money available. We have cut down the forces so much, you are now passed the bone and eating into the marrow. The idea of either a mechanized brigade or strike brigade being the choices, were it should be one supporting the other. We have slashed the support assets of the heavy brigade, meaning they have a limited reach and whose artillery is overmatched by their peers. The strike brigade is a paper tiger, it has no teeth. If I had a choice, I’d get rid of the strike brigade and put the funding into the heavies, as they offer more capability and are more flexible in how you employ them.

          • 100% with you.

            Most of the weapons platforms we have are under gunned/weaponised (ships, boxer, warrior, p8 etc). How are we realistically going to knock tanks out if we are fighting in a contested air space?

            Scrap strike, buy more tanks and heavy lift capability (can we deploy strike quickly anyway?) buy more artillery, every citizen donates a kidney that we can sell to the Chinese to pay for it, allow all refugees/asylum seekers fast track entry if they join army/navy for 3 years. Sound like a plan? Save a few billion too by forcing the NHS to move to one IT system instead of messing about with paper files. The inefficiency drives me crazy!

          • There also talk of loaning out the Apaches, so we may not have them at our disposal or have enough trained personnel to fly and maintain if we could get them back. Aircraft of any type have to be fit to fly, a fault on ground vehicle that would be a minor inconvenience will ground aircraft!

          • I am also of the opinion that the MBT is still the weapon of choice for many scenarios. I was really here looking at MBTs in Europe. What I was suggesting is that there perhaps should be a medium to long term plan for the Germans & Eastern Europeans to provide the bulk of the necessary MBTs in their own armed forces backed up by the British & French and obviously ultimately the Americans.

            Should such a plan materialise that might be the catalyst for the UK to revise our role and define what kit we will need over the next 30-50 years. Whilst the Europeans are in a muddle I cannot see any decisive decisions from our politicians.

          • Why are people convinced that Tanks are not expeditionary assets? They are and have always been.

            Ask anyone who was in Afghan and supported by Dutch and Canadian Leopards and they’ll tell you how much that was appreciated and how much they regret us not deploying our tanks there.

            So simply saying “we don’t want to fight on the Eastern Front” isn’t a good reason to get rid of tanks (also if we divest ourselves from fighting on NATO’s Eastern Flank then who can blame NATO for not helping us if the time ever comes).

          • What I was driving at here was the the UK needs to think carefully about it’s role & responsibilities not only on the Russian front but also elsewhere. Until it does that politicians will not allocate any money for anything.

            On the Russian front NATO needs to station sufficient forces to deter any aggression. It is logical that the bulk of those forces should come from the NATO countries in central and eastern Europe. Nobody defends a home like the owner.

            Are the days of a substantial Army on the Rhine gone? Would we still want prepositioned kit over there and if so how much? What kit do we need in the UK to defend our islands and to support expeditionary activity?

            We need to be clear about what we are defending against so that in future we might have the necessary kit when we need it.

            Also there is something a little odd about buying German tanks to defend Germany?

          • NATO is about collective defence, there is something very “un-collective defence” about allies turning to countries and saying “you need to defend yourselves, we’ll uh, guard your flank.”

            Personally I don’t think we should buy Leopard, or Abrams, or anything else, stick with what was designed for British Army doctrine until something that is markedly better comes out, rather than a incremental upgrade from the 1970’s.

            We do need to be clear on what we are defending against however: the central point I was making was that Tanks do not mean “Eastern Front.” In fact if anything the 90’s and 00’s kind of showed that we should be deploying tanks wherever the Army goes.

          • I suspect that the growing view of EU countries is that they will provide the first line of defence for their own territory. We have to accept that we may well not be welcome. The days of the UK & US guarding Europe may well be in the past.

            I take your point on armour being relevant on operations outside Europe. A highly mobile adaptive MBTs might well be highly desirable.

            In order to kick start the economy there will be a great deal of money spent on capital projects at home. Clearly building our own kit is the only way I can see politicians buying into this. The decision to limit orders for F35 is likely because we don’t want any defence spending unless it is reciprocated.

          • When Challenger 1 was due for replacement Leopard was considered but rejected due to lower levels of protection. Challenger 2 has never been lost to hostile fire. The only loss was to a blue on blue when a a HESH round hit an open turret hatch.

        • Very much tactics and poor operational decisions. They were sitting them broadside on top of hills using them for long range fire support with no infantry support. The Leopard 2A4 had pretty good frontal armour but very poor side armour, this was due to the Germans seeing mobility as a form of armour and the priority being to keep the weight of the tank down to enable that. The idea was for the tank to operate from prepared defensive positions then using their big gun and mobility to dictate engagements against the Soviet hoards. It is hardly surprising that late generation RPG and ATGM were so easily able to disable them when they were used in the way that the Turkish Army did. Bringing FIN rounds only also didn’t particularly help.

      • The Leopards Turkey has and have used in Syria are much earlier versions ,2A4 i believe ,whereas the current German Army Standard is 2A5 – 2A7,vastly different Armour Arrays and capability,bad Tactics notwithstanding.

      • That’s because they left the Tanks completely without infantry support, and IS took advantage by getting up close with Anti-Tank weapons. One does not simply leave tanks without infantry support.

    • There is no smoke without fire, so your rumours may hold some semblance of truth? Ditching the CH2 LEP may be true but buying Leopard 2 would not be wise considering we are not partners in the new German/French programme. We would be wiser to buy the latest M1’s and attempt to get involved with the M1 replacement.

      If F35’s are to be reduced that would effectively kill off the F35A for a few years at least. I’ll take the 70 airframes than face further cuts below that number.

      Defence cuts will not be privy to the UK, as I guess many NATO countries will do similar budget recalculations post-Covid?

      • I would say Maurice, that the plan to reduce Chally2 numbers down to 150 ‘ish’, killed the point of having heavy armour anyway.

        In both gulf wars we required 100 plus MBT’s to form the basis of a proper armoured division.

        With 150 ‘ish’ in a total fleet, we would struggle to deploy 40 to make a light armoured brigade.

        With numbers below critical mass ( rendering MBT ownership largely pointless) and the cost of the BAE Systems upgrade likely to go through the roof, as it always does…..

        The answer is to forget it and let them go, ‘if’ we are going below 200 MBT’s.

        If we remain at a reasonable 200 plus, I would buy upgraded M1 Tanks, off the shelf from Uncle Sam, so we can use the same supply chain, chances are we would be fighting alongside the Americas anyway in a future land war.

        • There is no magic pill for the current MBT status in the UK. The very fact we could not sustain tank manufacturing put pay to any home built replacement for CH2. Being an Island country was partly responsible for the MOD turning its back on British heavy armour, as the UK’s land forces were due to leave mainland Europe, thus weakening the case for a serious MBT strategy. One thing is clear, no practical alternative to the MBT has been found and the current strategy of most global powers, is to replace their fleets with brand new battle tanks. Without the heavy punch of a CH2, the British Army would be relegated to small armour support, and ultimately, a secondary role in overall land strategy. Imagine the UK being in a similar position during WW2 and how much political and military weight we would have lost.

          Any military action abroad of the type we witnessed in the Middle East requires a full panoply of credible armour, and that is how important the MBT still is in terms of foreign military policy. The CH2 is not just a battle tank it is also a political tool of significance.

          I have advocated the M1 as the only real option for the UK, if the US would recognise how valuable it would be for Britain to adopt their vehicle, and ultimately be a key player in the M1’s replacement.

        • Well RBSL upgrade now BAE Land Systems has been merged into a joint venture with Rheinmetal.

          The things is the BAE Land Systems proposal whilst minimal and uninspiring basically replacing and updating obsolescent electronics, adding some form APS and leaving everything else untouched made sense in the scope of what was asked for with the LEP programme. The Rheinmetal offering which now forms the core of the RBSL proposed upgrade makes far less sense for LEP as it changes out the entire turret for a new one to get a NATO standard gun on Challenger II. The problem with that is two fold:

          1) Even with the new turret the hull is still the same narrow one which won’t have room for spare ammunition like the Abrams and Leopard 2

          2) If you are going through the expense of replacing the most expensive part ‘The Turret’ to get a new main gun to give you a tank with a smaller bomb load than the above mentioned tanks why not just retire it and buy one of those tanks!

          In recent months I have rather swung my view from supporting retiring Challenger II and buying the Leopard 2A7 to doing the former and buying Abrams M1A2 SEPV3. In the end from my sources Abrams is what the Tankies always wanted anyway. There are spare M1A1 hulls available that can be upgraded to M1A2 SEPV3 and the General Dynamics line is hot at the moment upgrading and building new tanks. It would then allow the British Army to align itself with a tank that is well supported and with a constant upgrade path paid for by the US tax payer. Considering the idea of a UK developed replacement is dead and any next generation tank will have to be purchased abroad why not just cut to the chase and buy the Abrams?!

          • I absolutely agree with Fedaykin and Maurice, the M1 is the only real option for us.

            I hope we remain at 225, it’s the bare number needed.

            The US option is the only one that makes sense.
            No point crying over spilt milk, we don’t have any domestic capability, it’s long gone.

            We can be very proud of the Challenger 2, it was an excellent tank, last of the line of a proud British tank tradition, from invention to manufacture of some of the finest post war MBT’s, namely Chieftain and Challenger 2.

          • @Fedaykin

            The ammo capacity of the RBSL proposal with the smoothbore 120mm gun in a new turret has been disclosed and it is equivalent to the existing Challenger so the whole basis of your complaint is false.

            Buying M1’s would be much more expensive than upgrading Challenger. It has been looked at and discarded for that reason. Don’t forget that a) more M1’s would have to be acquired to also replace training vehicles and b) the M1 is actually older in design than the Challenger c) the M1 gulps fuel at a rate that far exceeds the UK’s logistics capability to keep up.

          • @Ron5 Still a bomb load smaller than its contemporaries.

            “Buying M1’s would be much more expensive than upgrading Challenger”

            You know that for a fact?

            “M1 gulps fuel”

            No it doesn’t, fuel consumption is much the same on the march, the APU fitted to the SEPV3 rectifies the high fuel consumption issue when stationary.

    • Someone has to pay for the extended holiday of 2020. Government finances are way worse than 08, 70 F35’s would be a dream at this stage much less 138.

  2. If only 48 aircraft are purchased, I think they should all be Royal Navy (FAA) aircraft used to equip the carriers and an OCU. Sharing this relatively small number with the RAF will not be efficient. If we do this, it will free the RAF to focus on air defence and transport roles. In time, as funds become available and threats mature, a Typhoon replacement can be purchased. This will be more efficient; each service will maintain one type of fast jet combat aircraft and be unfettered in deployment of same. Simplify everything!

      • Exactly Meirion X! So turn it into another FAA airfield? Or keep it RAF, that’s if all the 70 f35bs are transferred to Navy but I can’t see that happening.

      • Not as if 138 of them could operate out of Marham anyway, would have needed another base minimum. I expected at least 50 F35A’s to be purchased, this is a little bit of a gut kicker.

    • Taking away the RAF specialist strike capability would be concerning as the F-35 can do things that the Typhoon cant so safely and effectively carry out in and narrowing the capability of the RAF strike capability by not having its advanced sensors in a highly dangerous environment. Worse still this doesn’t bode at all well with any serious attempt to pursue Tempest making it sound like many feared just a way to try to get us relative equality in any European programme… or whatever way they try to sell it. If we seriously buy only half of what we were originally boating then lets be honest the Americans are hardly going to take us seriously again in giving us the same sort of participation in a project of theirs.

      My first instinct in regard to our future plans is something of a return to a Harold Wilson type approach to defence hoping that nothing kicks off, confused thinking, while boasting about certain capabilities and red hot technology doing the business… rather like what we are getting in most other things from this Govt in fact. Scares me.

      • If cuts to F35 numbers are true, I’m not convinced that is a threat to Tempest. In fact the opposite could be true – those Typhoons that would have been replaced by F35s would instead be replaced by Tempest.

          • I suspect that under existing plans to procure 138 F35, the 2 sqns worth of Tranche 1 Typhoon would be replaced by F35. Tempest would in turn eventually replace the 5 frontline and 2 non-frontline sqns worth of tranche 2/3 Typhoon. If only 70 F35 are procured that could mean all 9 sqns worth of Typhoons being replaced by Tempest.

          • Take the quotes and simply add the letter ‘B’ and this might be another version of the split A/B buy conversation. 70 B type being the ‘credible amount’ for Carrier Strike leaving the rest of the buy for the A type?

          • The fixation with carrier strike overlooks the stated plan for the F-35. It was to replace Joint Force Harrier, which at the time had two roles – the two RAF AV-8B squadrons were ground support for the army, the previous Sea Harrier squadrons were naval FSR (fighter/strike fighter/reconnaissance).

            The future F-35B force has the same two roles and, as much as HMG loves to double-count our assets, aircraft supporting the army in a conflict will not be available to surge on the carrier as well. It is very unlikely that the RN will get more than 48 aircraft, of which 24 will be front line.

      • The way this government has handled everything else to date, makes me really fear for Defence. Every aspect of it.

      • I’m with you on this. Replica program ran from 1994-98 was suppose to replace Tornado, with experience gained we managed to get a seat at the F35 table as a Tier 1 partner. So we have ‘form’ as they say. The government could be saying it worked before so lets try it again. We know the French are serious, they were more than happy to walk away from the Eurofighter program and go it alone. We’ve also form in abandoning projects, TSR2 springs to mind.

        • Not correct. The Replica program was to investigate & test manufacturing technology that would support stealth. There was zero intent to produce a flying aircraft.

          • But t that doesn’t mean Tempest will not be used to get a seat on another program. The best way to do that is to say you intend to create a competitor aircraft.

    • It doesn’t simplify anything, Lightning has been operated as a joint force from the start, just like joint force harrier before it.

    • Let’s look at it another way.

      The RAF are getting to eat what they cooked here.

      RAF “…..only need 70 35B for CBG bla bla bla rest can be F35A….”

      Treasury “Great then you only get 70 airframes”

      RAF “That went well then; didn’t see that coming”

      Exact rerun of cutting hill numbers of T45 to secure acceleration of T23 replacement…..that went well too…..not.

      This is where playing silly briefing games backfired as it gets officials thinking.

      That being said the 138 is a treaty commitment so won’t go down well the other side of the pond if we try and wriggle out of that.

      • SB, I agree the purchase of 138 F35s was part of the deal to be the tier 1 partner. If we renege on our order, whose to say the US won’t take back some of the manufacturing or repair work?

    • @Cam the blinding obvious thing to do is rebrand Marham as an FAA base. Don’t forget if the F-35’s are transferred to the Navy, all funds and budgets associated with them would also transfer. Just like when the Harriers were transferred from the Navy to the RAF.

  3. This review is already starting to look like another cost cutting exercise rather than a serious look at strategy and what we need to meet it.

    If we get 70 F35Bs then great as that will give us the ability to field 3 squadrons on a QEC, plus the OCU. If we ever need to have both carriers operating at once I’m sure we could surge a few more to give say 30 on one and 25 on the other.

    • Or 4 smaller sqns of 9 F35 each (rather than 3 of 12), plus the OCU. That way 2 frontline sqns could be aligned with each carrier (18 aircraft) – possibly supplemented by a similarly sized USMC F35 sqn. That way around 27 F35 would be on board for each QE class deployment).

        • Cam…I think that we have borrowed more than than our GDP for the first time since the 1960s. I am old enough to remember those days…I think you are too. Bad enough going cap in hand to LBJ….utterly humiliating to the present scumbag!

          • Ok Herodotus, I suppose the borrowing will make things worse in lots of respects and defence being number one victim most likely!

        • You should see the NHS+Social security budget, its eye watering, the economy is mostly there supporting that now.

          • It will only get worse with an increasing ageing population need more and more social care support. When T May actually tried to be honest with the public before an election and say taxes will need to be raised to pay for this the media went berserk and completely destroyed her almost costing the election. Now we have a Tory government trying to out spend labour but unable to raise taxes. The irony is its millennials and generations Z who are going to suffer because we can’t afford it even if they scrapped the MOD altogether.

          • I’m 18 and the future looks absolutely terrible, after university i might just hop to another country if they are doing any better.

          • that’s not as easy as it sounds. Brexit denies you European opportunity, the US is really hard to get into and stay. Australia still accepts well qualified, solvent young people. By the way, inspite of UK being skint, really very few countries are better

          • I realise that every country is struggling at the moment, it’s just that we are going to have a double whammy of covid 19 economic shock combined with what is increasingly looking like a hard brexit. And whether brexit will work out better for us in the long term is debatable, but the fact is there will definitely be a loss in the short term. It just feels like we keep shooting ourselves in the foot. Australia it is…

          • Bye
            How you getting there?
            There might not be any airlines left
            But i suppose you will blame that on brexit
            But think of this if you youngsters would abide by the social distancing rules perhaps this spread of the virus might subside
            Its your age group that is going to pay for this even though you might not have coused it
            That is no different than my age group having to pay for WW2 And i was not born then but still payed the price for it
            Your age group dont seem to be helping themselves just for a night or two out or a stint at the beach
            But never the less i suppose that will be blamed on brexit as well

          • I’ll go by hot air balloon. And you saying that “young people are the problem because SOME of them went to the beach” is like me saying “old people screwed the country up because SOME of them voted for brexit”

          • Not many western countrys are doing better than the uk in millitary capability, only USA is, but look at the mess they are in with the riots ect! Move at your own risk.

          • That’s the problem, its now impossible to have any serious debate about efficiency in the NHS. Its only going to get worse.

  4. Shock and horror. Realistically though if the F35 is to remain in service until 2060 which it probably will. I think we will procure 60-72 by 2030 and then another 50 – 60 to replace them around 2040.
    The other recent news about the UK considering scrapping warrior and C2 is also not a big surprise. With Covid that expected budget increase is never going to happen.
    However rather than talking pure sh!te that tanks are yesterday’s technology the mod needs to be honest and say the UK should not be investing in heavy armour when we are so far away from potential land conflicts globally. Germany and Poland should make up the vast bulk of heavy armour in Europe with France and UK focused on medium deployable armour. Cyber security should not be taken from the mod budget that is just a piss take from the treasury.

    • Yes. If these strike brigades are meant to be realistic the money should have proper artillery. The heavy armour is increasingly redundant. Put big bore on the strike 8-wheelers.

      As for Times articles…. let’s pause for thought about them. Do they really know what they are doing?
      We have 15% of the F35 programme, based on 138 planes. So we need to keep numbers to retain our financial interest. It’s a 50 year programme. So the 70 seems too low.

      • I think we will keep the 138 number order, it’s over the life of program so that’s spread oven many years so a relatively small amount of money every year in the big picture is easily manageable.

    • I totally agree. Any future conflicts will not be on the German plains, and CHR2 lacks the strategic, and even the operational, mobility to deploy anywhere else quickly. Maximum use of Boxer variants, supplemented by Ajax variants, is the viable way forward.
      We were never going to buy 138 F35s in one go. Half now and half in 2040 is the logical way to keep them operational over the carriers life span. It is also very unlikely that we would deploy two carriers at the same time. By having two we also have one operate.

    • But cyber security is vitaly important. look at the damage COVID-19 is doing to economy’s. if China or Russia was really hell bent on the destruction of the west, why bother with tank and soldiers, when a virus, or hacking our national infrastructure would be far more effective.

      • I agree cyber security is vitally important, but the home office, department for infrastructure, in fact pretty much every government department needs to allocate part of their budget towards this, not just the MOD.
        Private enterprise, particularly utilities also need to invest heavily to protect their own infrastructure. A lot of these applications are almost too integrated for their own good and they need to regularly practice defending against cyber attacks. I bet amazon, google and FB are targeted every single day and its just water off a ducks back to them.

        • I think there’s a difference between cyber warfare and security. I do think other departments should pick up some of that cost. The prevention o hacking and stealing intellectual property should be funded by the DTI for instance. Clearly offensive capability needs to be partially funded by the military. But we need to turn the investment into a product or parts of it at least and sell it to our Allies.

    • Seriously? The F35 still in service in 2060. No chance. It will be totally outclassed in 15-20 years. It is the first of a new breed however the evolution from this point on will be relentless.

      • It won’t be outclassed in in 15-20 years time, Russia and China have nothing that can touch it now or in the near future, and F35 development will be relentless, the F35 in 10 years time will be a very different from the aircraft flying today.

        • It makes you wonder if anyone will pay £100m for something which might be out of date in 10 years. You will have to pay for all the upgrades meanwhile unlike Microsoft office 365 the airframe will be wearing out.

          Cheaper kit in numbers which will do the job – that is the future surely?

          • unfortunately not, capability is everything, and that is the way we have gone, capability over numbers, and deployability. Some countries have huge armies, but are largely useless in the modern battlefield.

        • China is working on 2 stealth fighters (J-20 and FC-31) and 2 stealth bombers (H-20 and JH-XX) which should be able to touch the F-35 in the next few years, especially if you consider Chinas geographic and informational advantages in areas they are likely to meet.

          China is also very strong in AI and Computer Vision. Most patents in this area have being going to China for many years, so I expect them to catch up with F-35 sensor fusion at some point.

          • I’d take any claims from China with a very large pinch of salt. Especially when it comes to stealth, engine technology, and radar performance.

      • Really? Look at the F15, F16 and even B52. Totally different under the bonnet and virtually unimaginable upgrades to the originals to keep them relevant today. Most upgrades are software driven nowadays so almost limitless

  5. How many times have I mentioned on UKDJ about the never-ending cost increases of the F35 let alone the heated discussions that followed over the past two years +?

    Take the technology gains and transfer them to Tempest. The F35B will not be a fully capable aircraft until 2027 by which time we should have a version of loyal wingman to support the 70 F35’s on future carrier operations.

    The F35 will be ten years too late and counting, time to move on.

    Also, designing carriers of this size with ski ramps was a very big mistake, in my opinion, limiting the type of aircraft that can fly from their decks.

    Link courtesy of Meirion X

    https://www.key.aero/article/wind-tunnel-tests-reveal-tempests-digital-design

    • I wondered how much of the F-35 tech is protected IP?
      It seems some of the development is like reinventing the wheel?

      • I think we can do a lot better by learning from the mistakes that have been made in designing the F35 which are numerous, to say the least!

        Building in a carrier design from the start which the French and Germans are doing with their FACS program would also be the smart play.

        • That isn’t fact though is it Nigel, only a option they might look at a carrier version. a french/German carrier is further away then the FACS.

          • That article says nothing, a source close to the project says………. that could be a bloke down the pub. It’s not a hard fact or official requirement confirmed by the french or Germany govs

          • FCAS will be carrier capable, that was one of the first requirements for the French and a deal breaker since FCAS will replace Rafale. France is not interested in developing a second plane to replace Rafale M, nor des it have the funds for this. In fact not having a naval version was one the main reasons France dropped out of the Typhoon.

          • “that could be a bloke down the pub.”

            One of your sources then with little factual information to back it up as per usual other than your opinion.

            Dassault will serve as prime contractor for the NGF, while Airbus will lead the development of accompanying remote carrier vehicles and the broader system’s supporting combat cloud.[12] It will also be carrier-capable and will fly from the French Navy’s future aircraft carrier.

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Future_Combat_Air_System

          • Everyone seems to be aware of it apart from you it seems and still posting your idiotic kindergarten like replies as you have little else to offer in return. Pathetic.

            Dassault Confirms The Future Combat Air System Will Operate From Aircraft Carriers

            “FCAS/SCAF aboard aircraft carriers

            However, despite all the doubts around the final design brief and specifications of the NGF, Dassault confirmed to Naval News that the SCAF will be onboard the aircraft carrier that will replace the Charles de Gaulle circa 2035-2040.

            The changes in the aircraft configuration since last October show major improvement in handling and manoeuvrability at low speed. Despite an increased weight and size, the NGF will probably be able to land at a lower speed than the Rafale, thus diminishing the stress on the airframe of the naval variant.

            The NGF viewed form the side at le Bourget paris air show.
            With its very sleek design and long nose for the accommodation of heavy sensors, the NGF will have to introduce new technologies for safe carrier use.
            If the long nose of this NGF design restricts the front view for the pilot, advanced technologies available in the next decades should elude such a limitation. Distributed Aperture System, Helmet Mounted Synthetic Vision, automatic carrier landing and thrust vectoring nozzle are among some of the technologies displayed at Paris Air Show that could find their way in the final design of the NGF and ease carrier operations.

            In each and every case, a large multirole stealth naval aircraft will require a larger aircraft carrier than the Charles de Gaulle. The successor(s) of the sole available carrier in France is currently at the design stage and should be able to operate a full air wing of NGF alongside AEW aircraft, helicopters and Remote Carriers UAVs.”

          • You haven’t a clue Nigel, you just read websites all day, and marketing next to a plastic mock up, and believe totally unrealistic time frames and costs. You think the french/Germans are going to develop a 6th gen fighter, and develop and build a new aircraft carrier for 2035/40, in the current financial climate? ? They can’t even afford a few more Rafales at the moment. Give me a break.

          • Hate to burst your bubble.
            But work on the franco – german SCAF is moving forward, and initial funding has been approved to demonstrator phase in mid 2020s. Even Spain is contributing some finance and will be involved with Indra.
            France has started work on the CDG replacment in 2018. Right now it’s called PANG (next gen carrier) and scheduled for a launch in 2036, to replace the CDG which should retire around 2040. We know that it will be bigger than the CDG and weigh in approx 70k tons to be able to fit the SCAF which will be bigger than Rafale. What is not clear is if there will be 2 new PANG, but 1 will be built.

          • I think having a technology demonstrator flying before 2030 is hugely ambitious, let alone the mid 20’s. But we’ll see. I think it’s still a real possibility that the Tempest project and the French/German FCAS will merge in the future. It will be simply to costly to have two rival 6th gen fighter projects in Europe, especially when they will be built in relatively small number. Same with the new carrier. We know from experience with the QE class how long they take to develop and build, and survive all the economic/elections/military
            budget and political ups and downs over the next 20 years. ?

          • I do not know if a demonstrator by mid 2020s is optimistic, i am not designing the plane. However Tempest also plans to have a demonstrator in a similar time frame. So maybe it’s not unrealistic. I do agree with you that it may be possible for Tempest and SCAF may merge, since there is only limited export sales potential for either platform. Ie Japan, Korea, Turkey and India all want to produce their own. But that will mean the UK will need to agree to a carrier version, since that is a dealbreaker for France. SCAF will replace all Rafale variants, and there is no plan or money to develop another platform. I would not be surprised to see a similar design to QE class as a basis for France’s CDG replacement (it would be EMALS and probably nuke powered).
            Time will tell and we sill see.

          • And the cost continues to rise!

            Please note: Jane’s Gareth Jennings noted the exchange in Hansard, the official record of the proceedings of both the House of Commons and the House of Lords.

            The U.K. government has disclosed for what appears to be the first time that it is not necessarily committed to eventually upgrading all 48 of the F-35B Joint Strike Fighters that it plans to buy with the still-in-development and increasingly costly Block 4 package.

            Jets without the updates would be left with more limited capabilities.

            This also raises questions about how existing and future F-35 operators might approach the same question.

            Jeremy Quin, the U.K. Minister for Defense Procurement and member of the country’s Conservative Party, offered this note about upgrading the F-35Bs in response to a question from Kevan Jones, a member of parliament from the opposition Labor Party, on June 23, 2020. Jane’s Gareth Jennings noted the exchange in Hansard, the official record of the proceedings of both the House of Commons and the House of Lords, on Twitter.

            Jones asked “whether the F-35 Block 4 upgrade is already (a) costed and (b) budgeted for in the existing F-35 programme budget for the U.K.; how many aircraft will be upgraded; and what the forecast programme cost range is.”

            “The F-35 Block 4 upgrade has been included in the U.K. F-35 programme budget since its inception,” Quin responded. However, “decisions on the number of aircraft to be upgraded will be made on the basis of military capability requirements.”

            While F-35 operators outside of the United States, such as the United Kingdom, which received their aircraft later on, or have yet to even take delivery of their first examples, have escaped some of the worst impacts of concurrency, the Block 4 upgrade presents a new additional sustainment cost issue.

            Even if much of the research and development work has been paid for already, the remaining costs to actually update the jets will still be high.

            Certain modifications are especially cost-intensive given how hard it is to upgrade the aircraft’s physical structure due to its fixed mold-line built and the high-level of integrated across its systems.

            If the U.K. government does expect the unit cost of the upgrade package to be around $27.4 million, that would amount to increasing the purchase price of the jets by roughly a quarter or more.

            There have already been questions about whether there might be cuts to the planned British F-35 fleet in the face of other budget uncertainty in recent years.”

          • I don’t question the cost Nigel. We have just spent $540 million for project centurion upgrades for Typhoon, and I’m guessing that was only for the tranche 2/3 aircraft. Basically, any major weapon system upgrades are expensive, that is not exclusively to the F35.

    • I wouldn’t be blaming too much on the Covid bill, the economy will snap back fairly quickly, as soon as the epidemic is over, probably much quicker than our competitors, due to the inherent flexibility of the UK’s service based economic makeup.

      The massive debt accrued will be kicked down the road and lived with for a few generations, just like our war debt to Uncle Sam was….

      Cuts are inevitable, as at 2% GDP, we can’t afford the shining new top of the line expensive equipment and upgrades of old ‘and’ field an effective defence capability simultaneously.

      F35 numbers cut, well, to be expected, 138 was purely an aspirational target anyway.

      Challenger2 scrapping, we all saw that one coming…

      • Covid debt created by The Bank of E.(QE), could just be written Off.

        Yes I agree the economy will snap back quickly!

        The GDP limit on defence spending, needs to be much more flexible, e.g. 2-3% of GDP.

        • It is not that simple. Otherwise we would just do that all the time! Writing off that debt has other serious economic repercussions.

        • It is a useful strategy to use once or twice a century but can land countries in massive difficulties if use unwisely.

          We just need to increase GDP and the defence budget will automatically go up. Trouble is GDP can go up or down

      • Don’t bet on it. The Government have seriously damaged a key part of our service industries flexibility with IR35 legislation despite being told that it would do so. around 30% of positions in some key high tech areas have already been moved overseas as a result which was causing major economic issues before covid hit… Remember that currently the economy is rebounding a bit, but the big economic hits have not come yet. When furlough ends we could see major problems. Especially as this Government is full of idiots who have never done a proper job and are mainly trying to line their own pockets and those of their friends…

        • IR35 has been delayed by 12 months but companies are not moving tech work overseas just because contractors are finally having to pay their fair share of tax.

          • That is not the case. Contractors do pay their fair share of tax. I pay not far off the same tax share of tax as a permanent employee. The Lords report into IR35 showed this was the case. The Government have successfully spread lies and misinformation about this and have been very quiet on the 80% of court cases they have lost with regard to IR35. However contractors are not particularly opposed to paying more tax if it is done in a fair and sensible way. What we have seen however is that from April contractors will be thrown into an employment twilight zone. We will be employees for tax purposes but not for employment law purposes so we will effectively be zero rights employees… Part of the tax incentives are due to the way we work. I am not treated like an employee, I can be sent home at any point with no pay, I can have my contract effectively terminated at a moments notice and I have to buy my own equipment, pay my own holiday pay, sick pay, pension, purchase my own training, pay for my own insurance etc etc. I am also expected to come in and work at a productive level from the very start and I will have a lot more pressure to perform than any permanent staff around me. I also do not. So do you think it is right for the government to classify me as an employee for tax purposes but not for employment law purposes?

            Now to the movement of work abroad. Yes it has happened. Yes IR35 was delayed by 12 months but that was last minute so companies had already prepared for it to be in place and therefore moved the positions. You seem to misunderstand IR35. The current rules put the responsibility on the contractor. So if HMRC think I am flouting the rules then I am the one who gets taken to court. The new rules coming in from April put the responsibility on the client company. So this has had a very predictable outcome. The assessment tool provided by HMRC is useless and does not give a definitive result, it also does not take into account mutuality of obligation (which is the single most important aspect of being a genuine contractor). This means there is no way to actually guarantee a position is inside or outside of IR35. CEST may show me outside of IR35 and then further down the line the client is sued by HMRC as they disagree with their own tool. Or CEST could show me inside IR35 only for me to sue the client later due to me actually finding that I am outside of IR35. HMRC has failed to show the testing done on CEST and a FOI request turned up a single page of A4 for the test results. (Just for context and independent test produced well over 300 pages of results which is what I would expect to see). There is no independent arbitration system if a client or contractor thinks that their position has been assessed wrong so HMRC are the Accuser, the police and the judge… Given that they have consistently lied during the last few years I would not trust them to be a fair arbitration service on their own decisions. So with the uncertainty companies were faced with the perpetual possibility of being fined by HMRC or to move positions abroad. (IR35 does not apply to foreign contractors and so benefits them massively). I could move to Ireland and then contract back in to the UK and avoid IR35… Or I could live here pay the tax I am required to and spend my income in UK shops. Which is the best option for our economy? Lots of UK contractors have left the country as they can carry on their jobs from abroad or given that UK contractors are highly sort after can go and work for foreign clients instead (A friend of mine now works for a US client).

            The Government promised a full review into IR35 when they were elected. The previous Chancellor (Javid) had previously opposed the legislation and called it “Stupid”. They did not carry out a full review, they did a behind closed doors review which produced a report of just 19 pages (of which 4 were blank). It failed to mention who they had spoken too, what questions were asked and what the answers were. It did however support the Government position totally despite it being at odds with the opinion of courts of law. It also contained numerous false claims and numerous lies. The Lords did their own review which took months was open to the public and totally transparent. HMRC and the Treasury initially refused to take part. This review recorded all the people involved, all the question asked and all the answers given. It was backed up by numerous experts and as it was transparent the claims it made could be challenged by anyone at any point. The Government and HMRC refused to read the report (They were caught lying during the questioning by the Lords). In fact the Government pretty much refused to acknowledge the Lords reports existence. Senior Conservative MPs did question the Government but were shut down as quickly as everyone else. Then came the vote on the legislation. There was an amendment that was put forward by David Davies that suggested that it should be delayed by 2 years in order to fix all the issues with it. It had wide cross party support. So with the threat of losing the vote the PM and Chancellor sent out threatening letters to their MPs to make sure they voted against the amendment. (Some Conservative MPs have posted these letters to their constituents who then put them online). This ensured most Conservative MPs voted the amendment down and therefore ensured the new Legislation was by default voted through. 8 brave Conservative MPs did vote for the amendment, my MP who had told me he fully supported my opposition to the Legislation ended up abstaining. Not a single non Conservative MP voted against the amendment (an amendment put forward by a senior Conservative and pro brexit MP) which just shows how the Government succeeded in bullying their own MPs. Some constituents were then sent letters by their MPs to say sorry that they had to vote down the amendment but they had no choice given the threat they received. Is this how our democracy should work?

            So I think perhaps you should read the Lord report into IR35 before you make claims about contractors avoiding tax… as you clearly do not understand the issue at all.

            Our Contractor workforce is world class and is exactly what is needed to help get us out of the economic problems we are in. Contractors are generally highly skilled and very experienced and are a highly flexible and very productive work force. It is stupid to hobble this major part of our economy.

      • But we were committed to buy 138 F35s! It’ll look really bad If we cut numbers! ESPECIALY when Japan’s just Increased Numbers!

        • 138 was always over the life of the project, not all in one go. Even a fleet of 70 is still very capable fleet of aircraft. And this just speculation, not fact.

          • Yeah Robert Blay, im sure we all realise it’s not 138 operating at on time, the ones we have now will be replaced by future version ect ect

      • Our “war debt” to the USA was free. All our equipment was free, just has Russia did not pay for all the trucks that Uncle Sam sent to Uncle Joe… And we send equipment like planes and tanks there.

        What we borrowed was reconstruction, and some of that was free and the rest in preferential rates.

        I understand at the defence budget is based on 2.2% GDP, pre Covid.

          • What I read about Lend Lease, it was terminated in Sept.1945, equipment returned or destroyed before T. we did not have to pay for. Equipment returned after T. was discounted by 90%.

          • Equipment that was given away and not destroyed was supposed to be given back. Lots of stuff was consumable and could not be given back.

            After the war America gave loans, Marshal Aid, to several countries. We got a big chunk of Marshal Aid, more than France or Germany.
            Germany did pay reparations.

            BTW, all loans were good rates and it was of no benefit to is to pay them back early. We paid of Canadian loans in 2006. We don’t think Canadians as enemies.

        • The UK gave away millions of Tons of WW2 equipment and gear and never asked for anyithing after the warM e used to air drop money and guns ect into France and the Huge expensive arctic convoys to Russia!

          It just pisses me off how Britain didn’t want or get the Germans to pay us reparations but almost all other allies did!! They owe us many billions in today’s money… and in turn we paid back all who we owed to including USA!

          • You seem to forget that we took a hell of a lot of factory equipment and tech secrets out of Germany in the run up to the end of the war. We were part of the same pact as the other allies in relation to distributing assets from German industry etc. We along with the other main allies signed a treaty in 1990 to write off any other claims as part of the reunification of Germany.

          • correct. you beat me to it. France occupied the same until about 1956, likewise Holland occupied parts of Germany until about 1956.

            We like other allies received equipment free from America. And the liberty ships were built by America that filled the equipment. And American servicemen gave their blood.

    • Thats like saying Typhoon was no good until project centurion, and the previous 15 years wasn’t worth it. you just hate the F35 Colin, for whatever bizarre reason.

    • Tempest is not going to happen. It is a marketing exercise not a real effort. We just can not afford it. I would be surprised if we have a decent number of drones too as I can see the numbers of those being pretty small. So we are going to have an air force that has old Typhoons, a handful of F35s (if they do not all get assigned to the Navy) and a few drones oh an no tanks. We are going to be feared the world over!!! (Sarcasm just in case it was not obvious). So much for global Britain…

      I am not sure ski ramps were a bad idea. By using them along with the F35B we can sustain a far higher sortie rate than with catobar carriers. Yes it reduces the number of types that can operate but that would not be an issue if were were ordering the full number of F35s… Also in case of emergency an F35B could technically land on many other ships.

      If you think the F35 program has increased in cost then you are in for a shock if you think the Tempest or loyal wingman project do not also see a ramp up in costs (If they go ahead at all). These cost increases are very common in high tech military projects for the pure reason that they are dealing with lots of unknowns due to the cutting edge technology along with Government changing the specs every 10 mins.

        • I don’t think it will. We do not have the money and I doubt there will be much export potential for it as it will be up against future aircraft from the US, Japan and Germany/France, Russia and China and even possibly India. This will ensure it will cost a ludicrous amount per unit. We can’t even afford the F35s we have already committed to or our current Tanks! I will be surprised if Tempest turns out to be anything more than a demo like Taranis. I would love to be proven wrong though.

          • Jesus, we have a multiple trillion economy and the third biggest defence company and second biggest airplane engine maker RR.. and far more..

            We have the company’s And money to make tempest work and I’m glad to see team tempest has doubled in numbers in recent months and got other foreign partners onboard. We need a typhoon replacement anyway so it makes sense to partner and build it ourselves, or what would you suggest Lee1? Buying off yanks or French?

          • Second biggest Jet engine manufacturer that is in serious financial trouble. Third biggest defence company that has not designed and built its own production aircraft in decades. An economy that is faltering under a Government that is totally incompetent and more interested in looking after themselves than the country. We have a man in charge who was not elected yet is seemingly untouchable and hates all things “Establishment” despite being very much part of the “Establishment”. If the rumours are true and we can not afford our own tanks and are cutting F35 orders then it is unlikely we will stump up the money to throw at a new aircraft development when it will cost many time that of the competition.

            I would love nothing more than for Tempest to get built and for our aerospace industry to improve but I just can not see it happening. I can see a promising demonstrator being produced and then the project being cut. We struggled to fund Typhoon and that was with other countries in the project. Successive UK Governments are short sighted with relation to defence mainly because they are totally detached from the real world.

            Just look at the mad state of our refuelling tankers!! We can’t even refuel our own strategic aircraft…

          • And despite your doom and gloom assessment, we still have the 2nd largest aerospace sector in the world

          • The countries with the largest industry were led by the United States with $408.4 Bn (49%) followed by France with $69 Bn (8.2%) then China with $61.2 Bn (7.3%), United Kingdom with $48.8 Bn (5.8%), Germany with $46.2 Bn (5.5%), Russia with $27.1 Bn (3.2%), Canada with $24 Bn (2.9%), Japan with $21 Bn (2.5%), Spain with $14 Bn (1.7%) and India with (1.3%): the top 10 countries represent $731 Bn or 87.2% of the whole industry.[2]

      • I do not share your pessimism. I do not have a crystal ball, but i am confident it will happen. I am sure some compromises will have to be made, but that is true on every project. I do think it will have limited export potential because of competition which will cut out many customer nations which could afford it and be trusted with such high tech equipment (Fra, Ger, Japan, S. Korea, Spa and US) The most important thing about Tempest is not profitability, it is a strategic national defence issue and to maintain a key national industry and know how.

      • If we had listened to people like you, in the early 1990’s, we would be stuffed already?
        What would we be using to intercepting all those Russi’s aircraft now?

    • Poor Nigel might be the only person that thinks Tempest will turn out to be cheaper than F-35B’s. Or is that just a smokescreen to explain his dislike for F-35.

      Funny that he usually posts Putin friendly opinions like the F-35 will be soon out of date so don’t buy any. That’s absolute nonsense.

      • No Ron, I produce the evidence to back up my claims unlike you and your mate Plus one who never seem to be able to, ever.

        If I were Putin friendly, I’d opt for the F35. Come back to me on that one in 2027 when it has Block4 software installed (hopefully working correctly without endless bugs), capable of using Meteor plus other useful munitions and of course, the wheels don’t collapse on landing.

        Things have moved on from 15 December 2006 when the F35 first took to the skies like Loyal wingman and 6th gen fighters.

        Try keeping up to date with what’s happening in the real world.

        • Jesus Nigel, believe what the people who actually fly and operate the F35 say about it , other then another internet article that backs up what you wantt to read. F22, Typhoon, Rafale, Gripen, are all late and overbudget, nothing new with F35.

          • Exactly Robert, nothing new. FY 2020 F35B unit cost=$166M, full of bugs, lack of usable weapons and unable to maintain supersonic speeds for carrier intercepts, a class one deficiency that cannot be corrected in the near future until they devise a new stealth coating that doesn’t crack at sustained high temperatures and so the list goes on.

            And that’s what happens when you design a carrier based on one type of aircraft, all your eggs in one basket.

            Note the actual all-inclusive price and the fact that we are looking to reduce the amount of F35’s we purchase by half.

            It’s not rocket science. Page 79

            https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/6534949-FY20-Navy-Aircraft-Procurement.html#document/p79/a533442

          • Ah another website link, same old same old. They said all the same old stuff about F22 and Typhoon in the early day’s. White Elephants! Out of date! Useless!. And yet these aircraft are proving Sterling service today. The same for the F35, Its still very early days of it’s service career. Typhoon couldn’t carry the weapons it can carry today 10years ago, it wasn’t useless though was it. Of course it’s had development problems, but like any airforce that is now flying it says, it is and will provide a massive step change in capability. But you choose to ignore all of that, or the hugely successful QE F35 integration trials. Or it’s success in large-scale exercises. I think you simply don’t understand the capability Nigel and what the F35 brings to the battle space, because if you did, you wouldn’t be writing complete guff on this site. The fact that you repeat the ‘ can’t maintain supersonic flight’ story, says it all. It happened once, and the test pilots have never been able to recreate the fault. So another story, blow up out of all proportions, for the F35 hating websites. F35 was never designed for sustained supersonic flight, it wasn’t designed for supercruise like F22 or Typhoon in dry power. So any supersonic flight is only measured in a few minutes. You might be surprised how little aircraft like say F18’s actually go supersonic on a regular basis, due to stores restrictions, and fuel burn. Basics Nigel, basics.

          • I will defend Nigel on this fact, the F35 is the most expensive military aircraft in history and will be for the next 10 years at least. However, as more Countries are buying it, its overall unit cost is coming down. But that will not get a around the fact that the research and development costs are astronomical. Simply put, the fusion of avionics and the pilot’s situational awareness puts the aircraft in another league capability wise.

            But lets put that in perspective. This aircraft is a step change in capability, more so than the previous YF22/23 program. It has an unparalleled “theoretical” kill ratio from last years Red Flag and used Typhoon/Rafale tactics to take out F22s. Now that its flight envelop has been expanded, it out-performs F16s in dogfighting. On a recent exercise, F16s to stand a chance had to fly clean and with a reduced fuel load when paired against F35As. The exercises all started in a face to face merge and the kills were a tail on gun shot. The F35s by contrast had a full fuel load and were carrying live bombs in their bomb bays, to be used on the range after the dogfighting exercise. To put that in context, perhaps one of the best ever purpose built dog fighting aircraft were getting their arses handed to them when flying clean against an aircraft primarily designed for ground attack with a full internal weapons load!

            So let’s put this aircraft in a likely Pacific scenario. It is flying on CAP, where a Hawkeye detects a flight of 4 unknown aircraft that have just taken off from an atoll base in the South China Sea. The aircraft are flying directly towards the Hawkeye, but are still 300km off. The pair of CAP aircraft veer off to investigate and stay passive, using their distributed aperture system (DAS) to home in on the aircraft. These are shown to be J20s rapidly climbing to 40,000ft. Two aircraft are actively using their radar. The J35s monitor and relay the information back to the Hawkeye. Where they use their APG-81’s passive ability to hoover up the J20s radar emissions and then use this data to sneak around the back of the J20s. Now on the J20s six, they can close to within 20km staying outside visual range. Where they see one of the J20s weapons bays open and a missile lowered on it rack. The J35s immediately go offensive and fire a Sidewinder 9X at the targeted launch aircraft. The other 3 aircraft disperse as soon as their missile approach warning systems detect the approaching Sidewinder, the targeted aircraft can’t shake off the Sidewinder and succumbs quite quickly. The remaining 3 try to do a 180 and search for the enemy aircraft. Their Type 1475 AESA X band radar getting intermittent hits on something, but not enough to form any identification or track. The F35s watching the other 3 J20s going kinetic see that they are getting the odd hit from their opponents radar, make the decision to disengage. The 3 J20s circle the sky frantically searching for their attackers but to no avail. Whilst safely from distance the two F35s continuously monitor the J20s, watching the J20s turn tail and return to base.

            Ok, perhaps the above is a bit jackanory? But this amusing scenario does highlight what the differences are between a supposed 5th generation aircraft and the F35 will be. The F35 has been purposely designed to counter X band and K band radars in particular. It can definitely counter lower C and S band radars but not as comprehensively. Unlike the J20s lower frontal RCS, it has a more rounded approach to its radar stealth, where only the tail-on aspect lets it down. To a lesser “unknown” degree the F35’s RAM material also lowers its IR signature. What this means for a F35 pilot, is that they can pick and chose when and how to fight, making it easier to engage or disengage. To a lesser degree the F22 has this ability, but it doesn’t have the 360 degree DAS and is only now getting a forward looking FLIR, so it must rely on its radar to detect targets.

            It must be remembered that the aircraft is designed primarily as a ground attack aircraft, with a secondary fighter role. So it is not best suited to a QRA role, like a Typhoon. However, as proven at the last two Red Flags, following its software upgrade, it can definitely not only hold its own, but outperform dedicated fighter aircraft.

          • Hi Davyb. That is an excellent example of the kind of capabilities the F35 will bring to the fight. Add in electronic attack, and the ability to act almost like a mini AWACS, to share it’s situational awareness to fellow allied aircraft, and you have a very efficient and deadly force multiplier. Even a small number of F35’s, can have a massive effect on the battle space.

          • Yes, I agree. The F35 is not only a step change in capability but also in mission flexibility. However, as with any new cutting edge technology it comes at risk and a very high financial cost. If anything it will be like the first years of Typhoon. The US saying the aircraft is rubbish and too expensive, why don’t you buy the cheaper F18 instead? Typhoon did have a lot of issues to begin with, especially with the serviceability of the radar. But look at it now, it is not only an awesome air dominance fighter, but is pretty good at ground attack as well. The F35 will be the same, over time the teething problems will be sorted and the current technology matured enough, that we fully understand its capabilities. It serviceability will have improved, as better methods are discovered on how to maintain its RAM. But its the new methods of employment that will be the real eye opener, be it targeted jamming, electronic intelligence gathering (ELINT), drone mothership or perhaps as a supplemental AWACS. Its a shame that the carriers will not have the full data-link capability to begin with, but hopefully that will change in the future.

          • It’s a shame so many fail to understand the capability, and are quick to right it off, even in these very early days of it’s deployment. As you rightly say, it takes time to get these weapon systems matured, and providing the promised capability. There hasn’t been a single new fighter that has entered service in the last 40 plus years that hasn’t had substantial cost overruns, or delays. Or had all the capability and weapons available from day 1. Cheers Davyb. Have a good weekend.

          • Is this still the case? I very much hope not as we could be retiring them as erly as 2026-2030.

            The Marines’ F-35B structural test airframe proved unable to complete the three lifetimes of testing. According to the 2018 report, Joint Program Office officials suspended tests on that airframe in 2017 after its second lifetime when they found the necessary patches and modifications were so extensive that the airframe was “no longer representative of the wing-carry-through structure” of the aircraft coming off the assembly line.

            Shockingly, there are no plans to procure a replacement airframe to test the F-35B to the full three lifetimes required by the contract.

            Using the data gathered during the tests the aircraft did complete, evaluators determined that the service life of the F-35B could be as low as 2,100 flight hours.

            That means the Marine Corps could potentially have to start retiring the first of its F-35s in seven years, and may never acquire any F-35Bs with a verified 8,000-hour service life.”

            FY2018 DOT&E F35 Report

            https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/5736009-FY2018-DOT-E-F35-Report.html#document/p3/a482305

          • Nice copy and paste Nigel. I have seen many of the same issues you enjoy to highlight written about the F35 said about the F14, F15, F16, F18 F22, Typhoon in the early days of service, The F15 was a particularly nightmare for reliability in its early years. Problems that are alway overcome with experience, and the maturing of systems and maintenance techniques. We will be seeing F35B’s flying over Norfolk for many a year.

          • Ah, I see, thank you. How may F35B’s did we purchase prior to lot 9? I wonder when the 3 year testing phase will begin?

            It was also interesting to see how the report stars off.

            “Static Structural and Durability Testing

            The program secured funding and contracted to procure
            another F-35B ground test article, which will have a
            redesigned wing-carry-through structure that is production
            representative of Lot 9 and later F-35B aircraft. Testing of
            this production-representative ground test article will allow
            the program to certify the life of F-35B design improvements.
            The production and delivery dates are still to be determined.”

            https://www.dote.osd.mil/Portals/97/pub/reports/FY2019/dod/2019f35jsf.pdf?ver=2020-01-30-115432-173

          • Not according to this website. Another dodgy one perhaps?

            “It should be noted that numbers right now are currently where they’re expected to be and inline with the 2015 Strategic Defence and Security Review.

            2 F-35B in LRIP run 3, 1 F-35B in LRIP run 4, 1 F-35B in LRIP run 7, 4 F-35B in LRIP run 8, 6 F-35B in LRIP run 9, 3 F-35B in LRIP run 10, 2 F-35B in LRIP run 11, 2 F-35B in LRIP run 12 6 F-35B in LRIP run 13, 8 F-35B in LRIP run 14 and 7 F-35B in LRIP run 15. This brings us to 42 in 2023.”

          • Yes, my mistake, I didn’t see these at the top of the page. Still won’t make any difference though, fixes if needed will be added to early lot jet’s. We kept Sea Harrier FA2’s flying with many deficiencies and limitations right up to retirement, and each airframe was slightly bent! like I’ve said, it’s nothing new in the real world. The F35 is a marvelous piece of engineering, especially the F35B with it’s lift fan and swivel nozzle. Seeing how stable it is in the hover compared to the Harrier is quite a sight.

          • How will the F35B defend the carriers in a QRA scenario bearing in mind the new limitations that have recently been placed on both it and the C variant in terms of speed I wonder?

            “Defense News reports that one major deficiency that affects -B and -C versions is permanent and the Pentagon has no plans to correct.

            During supersonic flight at extremely high altitudes, the F-35’s skin warms to the point where the heat could damage the stealthy coating on the surface of the aircraft.

            Such flight also risks damage to the antennas on the rear of the aircraft.

            If the coating wears away at high speed the aircraft would instantly become easier for adversaries to detect on radar.

            Damage to the antennas could also cripple the pilot’s ability to communicate and receive data from nearby friendly forces.”

            https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/aviation/a32304032/f-35-supersonic-flight/

          • I assume high altitudes include 40,000ft?
            If a time limit has been imposed with no plans to correct, then clearly this is a real problem going forward?

            The deficiency, first reported by Defense News in 2019, means that at extremely high altitudes, the U.S. Navy’s and Marine Corps’ versions of the F-35 jet can only fly at supersonic speeds for short bursts of time before there is a risk of structural damage and loss of stealth capability.

            The problem may make it impossible for the Navy’s F-35C to conduct supersonic intercepts.

            “This issue was closed on December 17, 2019 with no further actions and concurrence from the U.S. services,” the F-35 JPO statement read. “The [deficiency report] was closed under the category of ‘no plan to correct,’ which is used by the F-35 team when the operator value provided by a complete fix does not justify the estimated cost of that fix.

            “In this case, the solution would require a lengthy development and flight testing of a material coating that can tolerate the flight environment for an unlimited time while satisfying the weight and other requirements of a control surface.

            Instead, the issue is being addressed procedurally by imposing a time limit on high-speed flight.”

            https://www.defensenews.com/air/2020/04/24/the-pentagon-will-have-to-live-with-limits-on-f-35s-supersonic-flights/

          • The answer is in the article you shared Nigel. please see below. What are you like 16 or something. you’ll have to do better then that. See you at the next F35 story, I’ll be looking out for you. ? I’m off back to my wife and child now, I’ll leave you alone with Google. bye for now

            It’s a not seperate issue and the issue was fixed and dealt with NINE years ago!

            Defense news say “WE FIRST reported this issue last year!!

            This is NOT to mean the issue is new!

            We have:Vice Adm. Mat Winter, who leads the F-35 program on behalf of the Pentagon, told Defense News that the department has taken steps to mitigate the problem with an improved spray-on coating, but added that the government will not completely fix it — instead accepting additional risk

            That coating is a new ceramic based paint that can withstand the higher temperatures.

            And, NOTE very careful this statement:

            Winter noted that the issue was documented while the jet was flying at the very edge of its flight envelope. He also said the phenomenon only occurred once for both the B and C models, despite numerous attempts to replicate the conditions that caused the problem.

            He also said the phenomenon only occurred once for both the B and C models, despite numerous attempts to replicate the conditions that caused the problem

            So, it is NOT a wide spread problem. And NOTE ALSO they NEVER saw the issue with the F35 “A” model.

            So, no, this is not a big deal, or issue. And note that story and information is NINE YEARS old!!! – from 2011.

            So, no this is not an issue or problem with the F35.

            And this:

            Greg Ulmer, Lockheed Martin’s F-35 program head, said there have been no cases of this problem occurring in the operational fleet and that incidents have been limited to the “highest extremes of flight testing conditions that are unlikely replicated in operational scenarios.”

            And Winter goes on to state this:

            The new coating, which was introduced in Lot 8, allows the jet to withstand hotter temperatures caused by the afterburner, the documents stated. Winter characterized the material as able to withstand “what we call the thermal shock wave

            So, you talking about an issue that cropped up 9 years ago, and has LONG been dealt with.

            Defense news is simply trying to gin up some clicks here.

            Pilots are free to use afterburners as they see fit. And all jets have some operational limits. For exmaple, f16’s have limits placed on afterburners and supersonic speeds at low altitudes. The canopy develops hot spots and thus can damage the canopy or even cause a failure.

            While the F35 does not fit the strict definition of supercruise, it can go for 150 miles without after burners at super sonic speeds.

            And with clean weapons it flies faster and farther then the 4th gen jets it replaces. So it flies faster, farther, and the stealth issue was fixed and dealth with NINE years ago.

          • Nice copy and paste Robert, you forgot to include this part sadly!

            “It may be some future advanced materials that can withstand the pressure and the temperature,” Winter said. “Then we see that, and we go, ‘Hey, look, we’ve got this on the book,’ [and] we do a test check to see if that new material solves that problem.

            The Defense Department has also instituted time limits on the number of seconds the F-35B and F-35C can fly at speeds in excess of Mach 1.2 while at full afterburner.”

            For example, an F-35C can only fly at Mach 1.3 in afterburner for 50 cumulative seconds, meaning that a pilot cannot clock 50 seconds at that speed, slow down for a couple seconds and then speed back up. However, the time requirements reset after the pilot operates at military power — an engine power setting that allows for less speed and thrust than afterburner — for a duration of three minutes.

            The F-35B can fly for 80 cumulative seconds at Mach 1.2 or 40 seconds at Mach 1.3 without risking damage.

            But for both the C and B models, flying at Mach 1.3 over the specified time limits poses the risk of inducing structural damage to the aircraft’s horizontal stabilizer.

            It is infeasible for the Navy or Marine Corps to operate the F-35 against a near-peer threat under such restrictions, the documents acknowledge.”

          • Is all that from 9 years ago too ?.

            First we speak about concept then capability. We describe how the jet collects information, proccess it and presents just a small percentage of that to the pilot. It’s about information and fusion. Developing cutting edge tactics from a clean sheet and beginning air or ground engagements from unprecedented ranges. There is so much we can do with this amazing machine and the architecture around it, and we have barely scratched the surface.

            Gp Capt Jim Beck, Station Commander RAF Marham. November 2019.

            TTFM Nigel. I’m flying home from Denmark tonight, I work in Denmark and Norway a lot with work (Offshore Wind) They are buying the F35 too, and they are very happy with it. Finland will probably be next, but I’d rather they select the Typhoon. ?

          • It is expensive yes, never denied that, but cost is coming down. And a Tempest or a FCAS isn’t going to be cheap is it, far from it. Especially when they will only be built in small number. Look at the vast amount of money Typhoon cost the MOD.

          • Try this one instead. Enjoy the read!

            MARCH 11, 2020

            F-35 Design Flaws Mounting, New Document Shows

            “A new document obtained by the Project On Government Oversight (POGO) shows that the F-35 program office has made little progress in fixing the fighter jet’s hundreds of design flaws, and continues to discover more of them. The Joint Strike Fighter Program Office’s Deficiency Report Metrics document, dated February 28, 2020, shows the program is currently dealing with 883 unresolved design flaws—and has no plan for correcting over 160 of them.

            “More than half, 448 deficiencies, remain “open, in dispute.” This means pilots or engineers believed they found a problem, but the contractors tasked with fixing the problems are claiming no problem exists. Multiple sources inside the F-35 program told POGO that the default response from the program’s prime contractor, Lockheed Martin, to any identified shortcoming is to say that the company’s design meets contract specifications and that any further changes can only be made with a contract modification.”

            https://www.pogo.org/investigation/2020/03/f-35-design-flaws-mounting-new-document-shows/

          • Did you say the same about F22 in the early days? or Typhoon in the early years? both of which had many technical difficulties and massively over budget. You don’t seem to understand all new fast jets take many years to mature, you think it’s only the F35 that has problems and needs expensive software drops. I dread to think of the problems plaging new Russian aircraft. You have a child like dislike for the F35 Nigel which you need to get over, because whatever you say Nigel, it’s going to be in service with the RAF/RN, USAF, US Navy & Marines and airforces around the world for the next 50 odd years, providing world class combat air capabilitys. And despite the cost, Airforces are queuing up to buy it. So do yourself a favour, start liking it, understand the capability, and why real fast jet pilots and engineers think it’s the deadliest fighter ever made, that is only going to get better and better as the years roll on.

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/davedeptula/2020/07/20/f-35-problem-child-or-on-track-for-success/

          • Ah, another website link lol.

            Try this one, it explains why the F35 Program is such a mess.

            “There soon turned out to be an essential flaw in the grand plan for a single plane that could do everything. Design specifications demanded by one branch of the military would adversely impact the F-35’s performance in another area. “It turns out when you combine the requirements of the three services, what you end up with is the F-35, which is an aircraft that is in many ways suboptimal for what each of the services really want,” said Todd Harrison, an aerospace expert with the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “It is much more expensive than originally envisioned, and the three versions of the plane actually don’t have that much in common.”

            But early in the program, Lockheed Martin began construction with glowing optimism. The company decided to build the Air Force’s F-35A first because it was considered the simplest model, then move on to the difficulties of the F-35B short-takeoff and vertical-landing version and then the F-35C, which can land on an aircraft carrier — a decision that turned out to be a mistake. Once Lockheed’s engineers proceeded with the more demanding design of the F-35B, they found that their initial weight estimates were no longer accurate and the B model was on track to be 3,000 pounds too heavy to meet specifications. The company was forced to begin an extensive redesign project that added an 18-month delay to the program.

            Later, serious problems resulted from starting production while the aircraft was still under development, a process the Pentagon calls concurrency. The strategy was meant to allow the services to begin flying their F-35s sooner. Instead, F-35s started rolling off the production line with unresolved technical problems, forcing the Pentagon to continually retrofit even newly built jets.”

          • You do realise all new fast jet’s have long lists of design flaws and bugs? the only difference is, more F35 information is available to the public in this modern era of the Internet. again, F22 had just the same troubled start in life.

          • “more F35 information is available to the public in this modern era of the Internet.”

            Thankfully yes. the whole F35 program is a mess.

            Apart from the spiralling costs, what do you think is going to happen when they go ahead with full-rate production to reduce costs and then try to implement Block 4 hardware and software?

            There are already numerous versions of it, so it will turn into the biggest cluster f–K to date with endless patches to try to get it working correctly on all the aircraft. In short, a programmers nightmare.

            Just to give you an idea.

            The program is also discovering issues during Block 4 testing, causing the testing to take longer than anticipated.

            According to a DOT&E official, Block 4 software changes caused issues with functionality of F-35 baseline aircraft capabilities that worked before the program installed new Block 4 software onto the aircraft.

            The program discovered issues with each new software version during flight testing and has been working to
            fix these issues in subsequent software updates. Testing and DOD officials stated that the contractor had not performed adequate testing of the software before delivering it to the test fleet as the reason for these issues.

            Contractor representatives acknowledged these issues and stated that they will conduct additional lab testing for future software releases to avoid such problems going forward.”

            “In May 2019, the program also updated its Block 4 development cost estimate, increasing both the time and cost to complete the work, but this updated estimate was not included in its May 2019 report to Congress.

            54. The updated cost estimate reflects that the program office will be fielding Block 4 capabilities into fiscal year 2026. This new schedule adds 2 years.

            Report to Congressional Committees

            May 2020

            https://www.gao.gov/assets/710/706815.pdf

          • Good copy and pasting Nigel. Like I said, Get used to it, it’s going to be around for a very long time, like it or not. You haven’t answered a single one of my questions. Because you don’t know a dam thing do you. You are good with Google search, I’ll give you that. Why don’t you join the Air League, or the Royal Aeronautical Society and bag yourself a visit to Marham, and hear the facts from the horses mouth, then come back and tell us all about it. As you seem to have all the answers, how much will Tempest cost the UK?? if it happens at all, and seeing as there is a pretty big black hole in the equipment budget, I have my doubts.

          • I thought it was blindly obvious why I had’nt bothered to reply to your questions Robert, they have nothing to do with the manufacture or cost of the F35 other than show no lessons have been learned hence the most expensive aircraft program in history and counting.

            As you always seem to quote The RAF and your mates from said force who you drink with down the pub, perhaps you could advise them that Tempest is’nt going to happen in your opinion!

            Enjoy the 3D moddeling by the way!

            https://www.raf.mod.uk/what-we-do/team-tempest/

          • Yeah the RAF, they know a thing or two about the F35, why oh why would I ever listen to them ?‍♂️I’ll tell them about you, they could do with a good laugh. So again Nigel. How much is Tempest going to cost us mear tax payer’s? You think we should ditch F35 after the first 48 and go for Tempest, which I hope we do go for Tempest, but I’m also realistic. And it’s to replace Typhoon, not F35. So how are we going to afford a 6th gen fighter in the current covid hit financial climate? and a considerable black hole in the defence equipment budget to sort out? merge with the French/Germany project? surely Europe can’t afford two 6th gen rival projects. We haven’t even built a 5th gen. Apart from the 15% of every single F35. Or we havent learnt a thing from Typhoon Rafale and Gripen.

          • And yet, all that still hasn’t put off countless countries buying it. Because they know a lot more about it then some dumb wannabe bloke on a defence website. Cheers Nigel ?

          • I’ll let others decide on here Robert, getting personal only shows another persons ignorance and failure to respond in an educated manner.

            The good news is, your not alone!

          • No Robert, from the horses mouth.

            You might consider using this end for future responses to my posts which include the DOD, DOT&E, UK defence select committe and other oversight committes plus respected websites like UKDJ and of course Janes Defence, not to mention STRN.

            As for my opinion, I listen to thse who are informed in these matters and have concluded that the F35 will be of little use to the UK until at least 2027-2030, what the final cost will end up being???

            As for how many Tempest aircraft we will buy, how can anyone know as the plane is still in the design phase? Stupid question.

            We have never designed a fifth generation aircraft? Have you heard of Taranis or Replica, we have all the experience required to get the job done, including the powerplant from Reaction engines.

            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HiFIw8OkTWk

          • Building a plastic mock up for wind tunnel tests is not delivering a 5th gen aircraft to the front line is it. If you worked for BAE Systems or RR, or Lockheed Martin, or had first hand experience with the F35 i’d let you off Nigel. But you don’t. Quoting websites and declassified DOD documents does not paint an accurate picture of what is happening on the front line. I’m not denying the eye watering cost, this is a hugely complex project. But only a moron cannot see that this aircraft will provide game changing capability. And if you childishly believe it isn’t useful before block 4 then you need to do more research. Ask the Israelis how useful it is so far. I think an experienced F35 pilot could tell you square to your face how good it is, and you would still argue the toss! Lot’s of aircrew interviews around the web are available praising the aircraft if you choose to find them. At the of the day, it’s in service now and delivering, and will be in service for a very long time. So you might want to get used to it. Put the same effort into critizing new Russian or Chinese aircraft, they will be full of bugs and delays and huge cost overuns for you to get excited about. Until the next F35 article Nigel. ??‍♂️

          • As far as I am aware this is an issue that was picked up and only seen a couple of times on pre-production aircraft. They have tried to replicate the issue but do not see that same problems. Then they developed a new coating that mitigates the issue if it does occur again. I think this was sensationalised into a more major problem that it actually was. Possibly this was by Russian media manipulation or simply by sites wanting to generate more clicks.

  6. Curious to know what everybody else thinks.
    With numbers that low, there is literally no room for attrition or accidents. Every aircraft in every sortie needs to make it home perfectly every time. No damage, no software failures, no hard landings etc. Is that even possible over so many decades in use?
    I suspect the 70 aircraft were exclusively planned as the B variant. The remaining number were likely being “considered” as the A type variant for the RAF.
    With Tempest being ‘thought up’ after the 138 number was originally thrown about, I think the plan is to go all-in for tempest for the RAF…. why bother with the F35-A variant if Tempest is “better” and British?
    Considering the buy rate of the B, how much longer would we be waiting for the others to be produced? By that time Tempest might already be ready for production itself.
    Like I say, I think there is a longer term goal in mind … but Covid-19 and Brexit are certainly forcing our hand. There is no choice but to cut back if the economy can’t support our ambitions. I just hope that other departments are cutting back too.
    M@

    • I think a second large batch of F35B will be purchased in the 2040s to replace the current F35 currently in service. I don’t think the airframes are expected to last as long as aircraft like the F15 and F16

    • If the Government tries cutting it’s way out of this one… We’re all f*cked.

      The only way to recover properly is to grow our economy to such an extent that the % of debt becomes lower vs increasing GDP, making it more manageable over the years.

      The Country needs heavy investment in large projects to get industry booming – naturally that will draw foreign investment and suddenly the recovery begins to gather more pace. Are very simplistic, yes I know but you get my drift.

      • Yet the announcements so far on infrastructure spending have been pathetically small. The PM tried to dress up £5bn of projects as if it was something fantastic. Well it was, just fantastically lacking in ambition.

        Build roads and airport capacity where needed to boost growth, build hospitals, schools, houses, and invest heavily in sciences and education.

        We need a Government with ambition but this lot seem to be on a path to austerity #2, despite their statements to the contrary.

  7. I said on this site 3 years ago we would only buy 80-90 , since they announced there would be just 4 squadrons and 1 ocu this was pretty obvious. Also this would easily allow us to maintain the number of squadrons mandated in the 2015 defence review.
    If I recall correctly the 2nd squadron should form in 2023 taking us up to 9 altogether with the 3rd and 4th forming in 2028 and 2033 (logically replacing the tranche 1 typhoons).
    Then tempest to follow to replace the t2 and t3 typhoons and most likely eventually early run f35’s.The typhoon out of service date of 2040 is another nonsense, the t3’s will most likely make the early to mid 2050’s.
    As long as we have sufficient f35’s to properly equip the carriers I would rather the available budget go on making tempest a reality and keeping the f35 fleet to the latest standard ( and they should all be B models)
    Keeping the official requirement at 138 has probably been about ensuring we kept our existing work share on the f35 program.

    • LOL, knowing the lack of priority Defence gets from this and previous Governments, 4 squadrons each with one aircraft, fitted for but with any actual weapons. We could sell the remaining 44 aircraft to fund more quango’s…

  8. I’m not going to waste any more time on this other than to point out it’s a Times journalist quoting an unamed “defence source”. That could mean anything from the janitor at the MoD to the journalist’s own imagination.

    I’m not going to lose any sleep, read enough fake news recently.

    • To honest as an Australian the UK should have a minimum of 200 F-35’s ,our country is approaching Two Percent of our GDP on Defence for all the scary right reasons . If this is true it fly’s in the face current circumstances of world events . The UK is literally walking away from any form of credible conventional forces that are still necessary in this world if only as a safety switch to prevent greater weapons being waved around .

  9. The problem I always have had with these cuts on defence is that they are so deep the military has never recovered , our economy is estimated to recover in 3 years time but these cuts there is no coming back.
    Short term thinking again that puts the UK at risk.

  10. If they give all the f35s to the mavy why not go further and disband the RAF. I’m sure the FAA would be happy to do air defence and the army transport.

    • That 14bn is to help counter China… it may be able to be spent more effectively but the amount is probably needed and possibly more on top.

  11. The issue with this story is it wouldn’t give a short term saving, since the overall project is over decades. Defense review cuts are all about saving money in the short term, so the government can use the money to give tax breaks etc, to win the next election.

    • Reality bites, hence the reason for cutting the numbers.

      “The Pentagon’s own budget documents list the FY 2020 procurement cost for those 48 aircraft as more than $101 million, nearly $12 million more than the figure rolled out for press reports. Using the Navy’s charts and the same math shows that the real costs for each F-35C is more than $123 million, while each F-35B costs in excess of $166 million. But even that figure doesn’t tell the whole story.”

      https://www.pogo.org/analysis/2019/11/deceptive-pentagon-math-tries-to-obscure-100-million-price-tag-for-f-35/

        • Poppycock from more of your wacky websites. The UK government has stated what they are paying for each F-35 that’s been purchased and it is not these make believe prices. Look it up.

          • I have Ron, many times in the past and the prices are correct unless you know more than the US Navy Procurement department?

          • I said poppycock and I mean it. F-35B cost $115m accord in UK government and not these ridiculous numbers you are dredging up from wacky websites.

            And that $115m is way cheaper than Typhoon whose current price is at least 50% higher.

          • Lol flyaway costs only represent a fraction of the costs of the plane, you need to consider lifetime costs which include sims, maintenace costs (currently at about $35k per hour, much more expensive than other aircraft), spare parts , upgrades (block 4 is not cheap, MoD recently said it may not upgrade current F35B because too expensive)
            Even the GAO is still not confident of what all these extra costs will be, i think they know a lot more than either of us.

          • Not Ron 5, nobody does! The full report can be accessed from this link.

            F-35 SUSTAINMENT:
            DOD Needs to Address Key Uncertainties as It Re-Designs the Aircraft’s Logistics System
            GAO-20-665T: Published: Jul 22, 2020. Publicly Released: Jul 22, 2020.

            What GAO Found

            The Autonomic Logistics Information System (ALIS) is integral to supporting F-35 aircraft operations and maintenance. However, F-35 personnel at 5 locations GAO visited for its March 2020 report cited several challenges.

            For example, users at all 5 locations we visited stated that electronic records of F-35 parts in ALIS are frequently incorrect, corrupt, or missing, resulting in the system signalling that an aircraft should be grounded in cases where personnel know that parts have been correctly installed and are safe for flight.

            At times, F-35 squadron leaders have decided to fly an aircraft when ALIS has signalled not to, thus assuming operational risk to meet mission requirements.

            GAO found that DOD had not (1) developed a performance-measurement process for ALIS to define how the system should perform or (2) determined how ALIS issues were affecting overall F-35 fleet readiness, which remains below warfighter requirements.

            DOD recognizes that ALIS needs improvement and plans to leverage ongoing re-design efforts to eventually replace ALIS with a new logistics system. However, as DOD embarks on this effort, it faces key technical and programmatic uncertainties.”

            https://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-20-665T

          • Block 4, a bug fixers nightmare still to come.

            I love this part!

            Turkey to continue part production until 2022

            PARIS — The cost of developing the F-35’s Block 4 upgrade has grown by $1.5 billion in the past year, and has now reached $12.1 billion despite Joint Program Office attempts to understate it, the Government Accountability Office (GAO) said in its latest annual report on the program released Tuesday.

            The GAO also reported that Block 4 development will take two years longer than planned and that despite promises of improvement the delivery of Block 4 capabilities will not be completed until 2026, instead of 2024.

            In addition, “the fielded aircraft, over 500 so far, do not meet the program’s reliability and maintainability goals,” notably because “only about 3,000 of the over 10,000 [Lockheed Martin] manufacturing key processes meet predefined design standards for ensuring product quality.”

            “The program is not delivering aircraft at the level of quality expected,” GAO added.”

            https://www.defense-aerospace.com/articles-view/feature/5/211183/f_35-block-4-upgrade-slides-two-years-as-cost-increases-by-%241.5-bn%3A-gao.html

  12. I would be very disappointed if we did cut the F35 buy and think this would not be very well received by our cousins in the US who have given us a good % of work share.

    As for Challenger and Warrior I think this is inevitable, we are losing a capability we never seem to want to deploy due to cost, so not a big loss in my books, also this is a capability that can only really be used in certain circumstances and I believe other NATO countries, whose geography is more suited to the deployment of heavy armour should be providing.

    does it diminish us, not at all – Boxer with Apache is a very capable force if fitted out correctly and the money saved could perhaps go to up gunning boxer and added better fires to the army.

    Of more concern is the general direction of travel with this, but the MOD has brought it on themselves as a result of just not being able to manage vendors or requirements properly.

    Perhaps this is a wake up call – but at some point there is a minimum spend required and also a minimum viable force structure if our country wishes to be seen as a global force for good.

  13. Just before I left 3 years ago, I was having a chat with the Prov Sgt and he was bumping his gums over how the Guardroom had been issued with 3 very well made rainbow flags to loft above with pride. Got to love the British MOD haven’t had a clue for years

  14. The real truth is that Defence has hamstrung itself by continuing to waste time, effort, manning and money on obsolescent aircraft carriers. This is why there are persistent rumours about various forces facing cuts. The UK simply cannot afford these carriers and all the support it requires, including support ships.
    Nothing has been decided or finalised yet and we will see more leaks as discussions progress. Every time something is threatened, the owner of that capability will make sure it is leaked.
    Selling the carriers is the only option but we all know no one will have the guts to do it

    • @Troll FD

      You have a bee in your bonnet about the QE carriers with F-35s, is that because it evens out the match compared to your Master’s 12000 tanks?

    • Ah fat Dave again, famous on the STRN site for being anti carrier……but then again getting home from work and finding one of the carriers banging the wife would get anyone angry.

  15. Unfortunately a carrier is more then just a ship, and the treasury has failed to release this. That being said the mod pays thousands every year for people to dream up new ideas and scenarios. So until the new SDR is released thers no real point getting wound up over rumours.

  16. They can spend £100 billion+ on a project like HS2: a project made redundant by the AV technology being developed by Tesla et al. Village idiots

  17. Why on earth would any UK politician announce a cut in the F-35 commitment???

    All downside and no up:
    1. No money saved because no money committed beyond the 48, let alone contracted
    2. US pissed off because of UK reneging on commitment, and yes it is a commitment not an “aspiration” despite what Lucy writes
    3. Government shown again to be weak on defence, already being exploited by Labour

        • And clearly not as qualified as you when not designing the future Type 45.

          A Research Fellow for Combat Airpower and Technology at RUSI. Particular expertise on the modern combat air environment, and especially the capabilities and interoperability of 4th, 4.5 and 5th generation fast jet types globally. Areas of expertise include airpower, disruptive technologies, Syria, Ukraine, nuclear weapons policy and disarmament efforts, insider attacks and Psyops in 20th Century warfare.

          Editor of the RUSI Defence Systems online journal.
          Part-time doctoral candidate in the Defence Studies Dept at Kings College London.

          • Bronk wrote his own resume that you are quoting. In other words, a self professed expert. Read what he writes and you’ll soon discover how flimsy his “expertise” really is.

    • US is still slow to adopt F35, look at US Navy, hardly any F35C. Also F16, F18 and F15 have seen consquential upgrades recently and orders. US is also working on NGAD
      And the UK should be pissed off at US for cancelling F136 engine. I am not sure the UK makes that much money on the F35 without those engines.

      • For every F-35, 15% spent in the UK on UK manufactured components. Worth billions to the UK economy. F136 has zero to do with that.

        • 15% was projected based on initial proposals, which at the time included a second engine the F136. Any recent sources to back your claim? What does the Uk produce for the F35A or C besides ejector seat? AFAIK it mostly has to do with lift fan, swivel nozel on the F35B. F35B represents a fraction of projected sales of all the variants. Avionics, software, engines, weapon systems are all US.

          • It’s a crying shame the F136 engine didn’t win the competition to be fitted to the F35. As part of the deal, the engine does stand a second chance from Lot 6 onwards. It is now unlikely though, as the combined team of General Electric and Rolls Royce wound down the engine’s development in 2011.

            The F136 had a better growth margin than the Pratt and Witney F135 engine. The DoD believed the F135 had the least technological risk, as it was a pretty bog standard low bypass turbofan compared to the F136. The F136 was partly based on the earlier F120 engine used in the YF22/23 program. It had a degree of variable cycle, in that it could take some of the bypass air and feed it to the front end of the high pressure turbine. With more mass going through, the specific fuel consumption was lowered and the thrust increased. Both the F135 and F136 produced nearly the same amount of power in reheat, the 136 was better in the dry condition.

            That was nearly 10 years ago and technology has moved on. GE/RR would nearly have to start from scratch to get the F136 up to the same level as the F135 is now, especially in terms of reliability and sustainability. The F135 will be undergoing its first major upgrade where the combustion chambers are being replaced. This will give the engine a 10% boost in fuel consumption as well as thrust. There are a number of other upgrades in the pipeline, such as a replacement compressor section.

            To be blunt, Pratt and Witney have the US 5th gen market sown up, even the B21 is getting the F135 engines. There’s very little ambition for a new engine for the F35 at present. Even if it could be proven that a development of the F136 could produce more power. GE have won the contract to fit the F110-GE-129 engines to the F15EX though.

            The future of fighter jet engines is a combined variable cycle engine that combines a turbofan with aspects of a turbojet and perhaps the ability to run as a ramjet. This is done by by feeding bypass air into various stages of the engine. The RR development of the EJ200 is supposed to be going this way.

  18. Remember, the first 4 UK F-35B, are too early lot, to ever go into combat. They are OK for training/trials, but never combat.
    I do not see the need to say 70 & no more now. We do not know how the economy or world security will be in 5 to 15 years time. Tempest is at least 15, more likely 20 years away before it comes into operational service. Some F-35A for the RAF may be needed before then.

  19. Of all the defense cuts this one may be a blessing in disguise.
    1. Let’s face it the F35 has not lived up to all the promises, not even close, late and way over budget, many problems still to fix, limited aerial performance, F35 front facing stealth quickly becoming countered by new radars (low band, multistactic, quantum, IR, etc…) a lot of woulda coulda shoulda. Even the US Navy and Air Force are underwhelmed, why they are modernizing legacy aircraft while working on NGAD
    2. I would assume all the 70 F35 would be the B version, so no new platform (F35A) simplifies logistics and costs.
    3. Having 70 means that in case of emergency both carriers can be deployed with serious firepower ?
    4. The money saved can be spent on Tempest which should far exceed F35 capability. Tempest will only be possible if the UK is 100% committed to it, and this news can only help achieve that ?
    My 2 cents

      • I don’t know why I bothered with this website, the utter uninformed guff repeated by those that know nothing about defense ?

        • Please name a website that is better (so people like myself can stay better informed). Even though there’s probably no reason to stay well informed, as we cannot do anything about this stuff.

          • I find ‘The Thin Pinstriped Line’ blogger to be about the best all rounder. He’s ex RN officer, and worked in the MOD. Writes very detailed and well balanced articles. ?

      • Lol “i know a guy who knows a guy”. What utter nonesense
        The facts are
        – F35 has poor performance vs competition (speed, maneuvrability, weapons loadout and integration)
        – F35 is costly and many problems still to fix. Read GAO and DOT&E reports, they are published every year!
        – US Navy and Air Force have recently modernized the A10, F15, F16 and F18 to keep them relevant for decades to come because the F35 is not able to fulfill its role as intended
        – US Navy is delaying ordering the F35C while working on NGAD which it wants ASAP
        But keep drinking the kool aid

        • Except it has a 15-20:1 kill record against Gen 4 fighters, and recently had 100% mission availability on deployment to UAE. Anyway please compare GAO reports on the F-18 and you will see every US fighter gets bagged.

          • u are reffering to that PR stunt announcement a while back then i have news for you. Those F35 kill ratios are pure fantasy. The F35 was not alone in those exercises, there were many other types of planes helping it (F22, F15, F18 Growlers, AWACS etc…). We cannot attribute all those kills to the F35 alone. (F35 doesn’t even carry that many weapons to kill that many targets lol)

            Secondly the adversary in those exercises were early 1980s versions of gen 4 aircraft (F16C). They are not representative of current gen 4 aircraft capabilities which have brand new avionics, weapons etc…

            When was this deployement of F35 to UAE? On what base because neither US nor UK operate from there AFAIK. 100% availability lol, they couldn’t even get 4 F35 across the pond for Finland’s bid (HX Challenge) for new aircraft just a few months ago. In the end, only 2 made it across to Finland and of the 2 only 1 was able to do the evaluation tests in Finland, the other was grounded. I suggest you read Corporal Frisk’s blog.

  20. H, Of cause You are a Troll of Putin! Just sprouting a load of nonsense as usual.

    Just to get:the record straight,
    Japan has a Debt to GNP raitio of 250%, right now!
    And with more F-35s on order!

  21. Harold, the “California Republic” has been pushing for independence for decades. It will never happen, it is not a serious movement. California is the state with biggest GDP and population and home to America’s (and the world’s) tech sector – it won’t be allowed to leave. In truth, America is like 3 or 4 different countries, it is very polarized and we are now seeing this play out. Let’s hope the next president is one who can unite the US and indeed the west. I have just returned to the UK after 4 years in the US and am so happy to be back

  22. The QE carriers are the largest warships built for the navy and can carry 3 x more aircraft than a single Invincible class. Yet if this is correct they’ll operate, what, the same as or less than 1 x Invincible class? Pointless. Should have added CATOBAR and never bothered with F35 if the Govt couldn’t commit. Are they expecting RAF and FAA to hot seat?

    • The Invincible class struggled to deploy a whole squadron of Harriers.
      This kind of carrier’s usual deployment was
      8 Harriers, it was designed for mainly ASW, and a few Harriers to intercept long range Soviet bombers over deep ocean in the Cold War.

  23. Any decision on F 35B numbers has to be guided by one simple consideration-the RAF can do without them but the Navy cannot. So, what is the minimum number needed to ensure that the QE Class can operate to its full potential? Assuming the production line will remain active for many years to come and has the capacity to cut delivery times, then the decision does not need to be made now as long as the Queen Elizabeth can get what it needs by next year latest, to reach a reasonable operating capacity. I still think the UK missed a great opportunity to develop a son of Harrier on the existing technology to cater for the middle ground. Many nations can not afford nor need the complex answer that the F 35 provides.

  24. It’s no surprise, It does highlight the weakness of designing a ship around one weapon system whether its a missile (seaslug and counties) or an aircraft (F35b and QE). CATOBAR would have been more flexible. The real big mistake was not making Typhoon carrier capable like the Rafale.. We are where we are A smaller F35B fleet only for the carriers make sense. The RAF could then have more Tyohoons, (keep BAE going until Tempest). And some F18 Growlers to support Typhoons in the strike role.

      • Its a bit of a mute point as the cost of Typhoon isn’t exactly insanely cheaper than the f35 (not sure if its cheaper at all). If we have a carrier, we need jets for it and we do not have enough tyhpoons to convert them.

        I did see the indian’s were experimenting with a F/A 18 using short take off and arrestor landing. Fitting a trap to the QE can’t be that expensive, although i think the F35 would be a better option.

        • Yes the F-35B is the better option, of a thrust vectoring engine, I mean the swirl nozzle.

          Without thrust vectoring, STOBAR will Not deliver a meaningful load.

        • Ignoring the billions needed to develop it, Sea Typhoon would cost at least double the F-35B for a lower capability. That’s why the idea died, and died quickly.

  25. Wow, late to this thread as was out all day yesterday.

    I have a different view to many.

    I’d be delighted with 70 all B F35 myself!

    With Typhoon and then hopefully Tempest later why do we need more?

    70 should be enough to put extra F35 onto the QEC’s in emergency.

    This was always going to happen. Like 250 Typhoon, then 232 Typhoon never happened either.

    We are discussing assets here that don’t even exist yet, a number out of thin air.

    I’d rather lose projected assets that have yet to be budgeted than existing, in use, usable assets.

  26. Leak 50% cut to F35 then an actual 20% cuts feels like a victory

    Leak cutting Type 26 to 3 hulls then a reduction to 6 hulls doesn’t seem so bad

    Leak scrapping MBTs then cut down to 130 is considered a compromise we can work with

    It may also be the army suggesting a cut to F35s, the RAF suggesting cuts to Type 26s and the navy suggesting scrapping tanks

    Isn’t this the way of things at every review?

    What is really needed is a long term plan from politicians of what they want the armed forces to do, state it publicly then allocate the budget to do it

  27. Is this really unexpected? My impression is that 70-80 jets has been on the cards for several years, usually quoted as ‘high single figures’. 138 was never going to be attainable and 70 is a not unreasonable total that the RN/RAF can work with. Had the order been capped at 48 it would have been a different story but 70 is OK.

  28. I’m going to throw my 2 pence worths in. First off, this is only speculation, of which there is plenty before a defence review. But the number of 70 F35B’s wouldn’t be to bad an outcome. We only ever had 16 Sea Harrier FA2’s in service across 2 front line sqns, and another 9 on the OCU. Once those where retired, we only had 48 Harrier GR7/9’s across 3 front line units, and the OCU and OEU in the active fleet. And you would have to go back a good few years when we last had 70 or greater Tornado GR4’s in service. If after this review we can still generate 24 F34’s to take to sew, then that is still a very serious capability to take around the world at our choosing. China could only dream of doing that. And let’s not forget, France only has around 48 Carrier capable Rafales. So would 70 F35B’s be a disaster?? I don’t think it would, and a smaller purchase now, might secure the Tempest project long term, with possibly more F35B orders further down the line to secure long term Carrier strike. Who knows. But money and the economy is key, and COVID is going to impact us all for a good few years, and not just the UK. I think the impact of COVID-19 has to put any conventional warfare in doubt, Who needs tanks and soldiers, when a virus can be so affective, same with Cyber warfare, you could potentially bring a nation to it’s knee’s, and not fire a single shot. We have all experienced how vital it is to keep our everyday supply chains running Loo roll anyone ?

  29. Anyone with a tiny bit of military knowledge knew there was no way a full 138 would be ordered, so no slapping your own back there son. Anyway serious question, why do you get off so much when the news is negative in regard to military issues? Is it because you feel you have missed out, not quite a real man as never having served? Failed the entrance test? Failed the fitness test? Don’t worry, it’s ok, failing is all part of learning. Im sure you had a great life wishing……….

  30. I think it would be unlikely for any such statement to be made, the lifetime of the programme is many more decades, public finances work over year long cycles with no spending plans lasting for more than a few years.

    This government would be bonkers to make definitive statements about a program decades before decisions are needed, especially if those statements could have negative impacts on relationships with key friends and impact on industrial work share.

    Government may in back rooms think that there is a snowballs chance in hell that we will buy all 148 over the next 30 ish years….but to say it publicly would be foolish in the extreme.

    • A couple of points above are not accurate.

      1) The RAF plan from the outset has been to procure 6 squadrons of F-35s, not 4. They only announced 4 squadrons, because 5 and 6 will come from the Typhoon force (the two former Tornado squadrons given Typhoons last year. 138 aircraft is exactly the number needed to equip 6 sqns , an OEU and OEU.
      2) The idea that we can go back later and buy another batch of Lightnings is a non-starter. There is no space
      in the fast jet budget for any subsequent buys of anything. We only have about £600m a year to spend
      on new aircraft. That is 7.5 F-35Bs or 10 F-35As a
      year. If you work that out on a spreadsheet, the Typhoons will be about 40 years old before replacement by Tempest/AN Other.
      3) The Bs are not earmarked solely for the carrier, they have to do ground support of the army as well as
      naval air. That is likely to mean 18 front line each role.
      4) Strategically, RAF interdiction/strike and air defence are the priorities. Whack the enemy air on the ground and in air combat, there won’t be too many for the tactical ground suppprt and naval air to worry about.

      Basic problem is we can’t afford the 14 squadrons we’d need at minimum to do the various roles, so everyone is going to be short. If this government increases the defence and procurement budgets by 25%, we might get some way to the aircraft we need.instead, we have the unelected fellow Cummings apparently playing little amateur games to squeeze yet more non-defence items into the defence budget.

      Truth is we could never afford the SSBNS and vanity carriers for the RN and every other essential item of kit is desperately short in consequence.

  31. Clearly the defense review has begin in earnest given all the kite flying about potential cuts to Challenger 2 tanks, F-35’s, T23 frigates, the RM’s, FSS … Basically everyone with a vested interested in anything potentially in line for the chop is frantically leaking to the press.

    No one expects that UK defense spending is now going to increase in real terms, and a reduction is very likely – at least as far as is possible whilst still nominally meeting NATO 2% target via accounting smoke and mirrors (easily done given the effect of Covid-19 on the UK economy)

    But we know from speeches that the government wants to spend more on safeguarding UK territory, space, cyber warfare and the protection of critical under water assets. Given the already existing funding black hole and the surging cost of the nuclear deterrent related spending (now 18-19 percent of the UK defense budget, but untouchable without risking the UK’s UN Security Council seat), the numbers will only add up by making big capability cuts in some areas.

    In late 2009 Cameron personally decided to immediately axe the RN’s carrier capability and Joint Harrier Force in favour of retaining the RAF’s Tornado squadrons. 11 years later, Boris may soon be faced with similar hard decisions.

  32. Meanwhile, 32 Sqn has retired its 4 146. Boris moans he rarely gets the VIP Voyager. British Airways has removed its 32 business seat A318 it used for London City-New York flights. If anyone is at their desks in Whitehall, surely they can see that this ex BA A318 could be bought cheaply for 32 Sqn?

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