An analyst on a defence and security podcast has said that there are a lot more civilian targets in Ukraine than military ones, and the Russians will continue to target them.
Renowned open-source intelligence specialist @Osinttechnical said:
“Iranian-supplied drones and Iranian-supplied assets have replaced the existing or depleted stock of Russian cruise missiles and other long-range assets. I don’t think there have been Russian calibre strikes for weeks now. It’s at a very significantly declined rate. So we’re very likely to see sort of this reduction and this, this lack of, of attacks. Moving into the future, these strikes against Ukrainian civilian targets, against civilian infrastructure, especially power generation infrastructure, are aimed at disturbing the ability of the Ukrainian Homefront to actually operate for people to go around their daily lives for the past few months before these resumed, these renewed strikes started, people were effectively living a normal life.
There were, you know, wartime considerations, but people were able to work, people were able to sort of actually live and operate, and Russia, obviously with their new Iranian supplied drones, their Iranian supplied strike assets are attempting to disturb that and attempting to sort of end that normalcy for the civilians in Ukraine.
I expect that to continue, and I expect them to, especially if they acquire these ballistic missiles from Iran, a strike targets even deeper into Ukraine, and it’ll be even harder for the Ukrainians to actually counter it, which certainly is a threat for the Ukrainians that I, you know, they might be able to counter it, they might not be able to counter it. Right now, their current air defence assets are able to counter a number of the drones and various weapons that the Russians are sending.
But again, just due to the nature of those swarming attacks, and of those saturation attacks, they’ll saturate, you know, any sort of integrated air defence network, which the Ukrainians are trying to put together right now to, you know, protect against civilian targets. There are a lot more civilian targets in Ukraine than military ones, and the Russians will continue to target them.”
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Personally I feel that the switch to terror tactics and targeting civilians has more to do with Putin’s rage that the Ukrainians haven’t capitulated as his
yes menexperts informed him they would with his main audience not the Ukrainians who we have seen are in this for the long haul, but rather Putin is targeting the liberals in the West, who shocked at the increase in civilian deaths, will push for a ceasefire thus saving Putin from any further embarrassments, which if it continues will see him ousted from power. It also has the added benefit that if as I suspect the Ukraine would refuse such calls, would place pressure on Western Governments to force Kyiv to do so by ending arm shipments. Expect the death toll to increase after Moscow receives the SRMS it has just purchased off of Iran.The BBC knocked out an interesting video on the drone attacks
I am a Liberal and my reaction to all this is we should arm the Ukraine to hit back.
So far the main opposition to funding them seems to be the elements of the US right that want Trump back. He of course stopped military aid for almost three years to blackmail Ukraine into making up evidence against Biden.
Chris L wrote:
Actually that’s not exactly correct timewise, The time between the Pentagon stating it would provide $390 million in Aid, Trump placing a hold on that aid and that hold getting lifted was 85 days, Please find as follows a chronological breakdown as reported by the media in Nov 2019 regards that hold on aid as reported during the two weeks of the House intelligence committee’s public impeachment hearings:
18th June 2019:
The Pentagon announces plans “to provide $250 million to Ukraine in security cooperation funds for additional training, equipment and advisory efforts to build the capacity of Ukraine’s armed forces.”
19th June :
President Trump starts asking about the Ukraine military assistance, according to Mark Sandy, a career official in the Office of Management and Budget. Sandy told House investigators he learned of Trump’s queries in an e-mail from Mike Duffey, a political appointee who oversees funding for military, intelligence and international affairs at OMB. This was the same day a report about the Pentagon’s announced Ukraine assistance appeared in the Washington Examiner, a conservative website and weekly tabloid.
3rd July :
This is the earliest publicly known date when a hold on the Ukraine assistance appears to have been imposed. “On July 3, I learned,” Jennifer Williams, a Russia adviser to Vice President Mike Pence, told the House Intelligence panel, “that the Office of Management and Budget had placed a hold on a tranche of security assistance designated for Ukraine.”
12th July :
Further evidence of a hold on the Ukraine aid is found in an email that OMB’s Sandy received on this date from Robert Blair, a senior adviser to acting White House chief of staff Mick Mulvaney. Asked at a closed door deposition what was said in that email, Sandy replied, “to the best of my recollection, that the president is directing a hold on military support funding for Ukraine.”
18th July :
The hold becomes more widely known within the Trump administration. State Department Ukraine expert Catherine Croft, who’d been detailed to the National Security Council, told a public hearing of the impeachment inquiry that on this date, “I participated in a sub-Policy Coordination Committee video conference where an OMB representative reported that the White House Chief of Staff, Mick Mulvaney, had placed an informal hold on security assistance to Ukraine. The only reason given was that the order came at the direction of the President.”
19th July :
The Department of Défense has been notified of the hold, according to OMB’s Sandy, who told House investigators he was informed of this by OMB political appointee Mike Duffey. Sandy said he asked Duffey what the duration of the hold would be “and was told there was not clear guidance on that.” He also expressed concern to Duffey about the freeze on funds possibly violating the Impoundment Control Act, since it could lead to the expiration of those funds.
25th July:
OMB’s Sandy signs the first document making the hold official and valid through Aug. 5. This is the same day Trump called Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy and asked for “a favour”: that Zelenskiy would probe Joe Biden and his son Hunter’s activities in Ukraine — as well as a debunked claim that Ukraine, not Russia, had hacked the Democratic National Committee’s computer server.
30th July:
OMB’s Sandy is informed he will no longer be approving the holds on Ukraine assistance. Instead, he tells House investigators, political appointee Mike Duffey would sign off on such documents. “He had an interest in being more involved in daily operations,” says Sandy, “and he regarded this responsibility as a way for him to learn more about the specific accounts in his area.”
Mid-August to early September:
Duffey signs “at least half a dozen” additional temporary holds on the Ukraine assistance, according to Sandy.
28th August 28:
Politico scoops a previously unreported story: that the Trump administration is “slow-walking $250 million in military assistance to Ukraine.”
11th Sept. 11:
The hold is lifted on the Ukraine assistance, 85 days after the Pentagon announced that aid had become available.
My mistake. I thought the block on aid continued for the whole period he spent pressing them for ‘evidence’. Thank you for the correction.
I would guess that Putin thanks that subjecting the Ukraine population to a cold winter without power will break there will and/or divert there attention from an offensive to trying to restore power.
God let it end 🙏
The Orcs can end it tomorrow if they wanted!
Forget Praying and address your comments to Russia ….they can end this war by withdrawing their army from Ukraine territory.
Some how don’t think Russia will listen to me but will give Putin a call away 😉
Oh can you remind him I’ve moved so send my Christmas card to my new address. I will address his to the gulag he will be in by Christmas. 😂😂😂
😀😂
Russion pilot ejects:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34-4D-MmR4I&ab_channel=WarLeaks-MilitaryBlog
A brutal and stupid tactic
No, not really. Surprised that hadn’t done it a lot sooner. By targeting Ukraine’s infrastructure and in particular its power generation along with its supply and distribution network. Not only makes life worse for the civilian population, but also the military. It can have both a direct and indirect effect. As you now have to look at sourcing diesel gensets to back up everything, including the constant resupply of fuel. Which not only increases the logistical burden, but also how it is paid for. Without the gensets, there will knock on effects, with the loss of refrigeration to keep food, blood and medicines chilled. Let alone lighting up and powering businesses and homes.
One direct impact will be the loss of the mobile phone network. So much of Ukraine’s communications are reliant on mobile phones and Wi-Fi connectivity. This not only includes the social media side of things. But also, how military communications will be affected. Ukraine has been brilliant in using social media to help sway Government opinions on providing them material support. Without it the support would not have been as intense or plentiful.
If you step back and then look at where gensets are being used by measuring their thermal signature. You can build up not only a pattern of life, but also see where key buildings are being powered. Which might point to where HQs are located.
A barbaric tactic yes, stupid no!
All the more reason to give the Ukraine the power to hit back.
It is the only thing that will make the Russians stop.
Agreed, but Ukraine are playing it very carefully. If for instance they were to get something like Tomahawk, which had the range the range to reach Moscow. Or if Ukraine made a concerted effort to take out the Black Sea Fleet in Sevastopol. How would Putin immediately react? By not using strategic weapons, there is less of a chance that Mad Vlad will use Nukes. There is a very strong chance that Ukraine will take back Kherson in the next couple of weeks, which will be bad for Russian morale. But not as bad if they loose the Nova Kakhovka Dam further up the river. As this is where fresh water is supplied to the Crimea. Which was one of the reasons that Russia kicked off this war.
I would like to believe Russia will not use nukes, unless its original borders were threatened. This is probably the main reason Ukraine have stayed within their own borders. Strategically, you would have driven over the border to take out major logistic hubs, such as Belgorod. As Russia would then have to divert forces from Ukraine to either protect it or try and take it back. Morally, Ukraine would be justified in attacking Russian and Belarus airfields that have been used to attack it, but they have been very restrained.
Would the use of nukes be included when Ukraine drives into Crimea? I don’t know, but Mad Vlad would see it as a major embarrassment if they lost that as well. How does someone with that size of an ego react to the possibility of loosing that as well?
Zelenskyy has warned that Putin will blow the dam rather than lose it, destroying huge populated areas downstream. I don’t know if that’s a Putin bluff to stop Ukraine even trying, or what the consequences would be if he actually did it. What level of war crimes is the world willing to tolerate? In particular China, India, etc.
Mad Vlad’s rage won’t just affect the area around Kherson. The dam is holding back a huge body of water. If that dam id blown, the tidal wave it will generate will be felt at Odessa and all along Ukraine’s southern coastline, which is only a few metres above sea level.
Supposedly Kherson would not be completely flooded it would mainly be the south bank. Held by the Orcs at the moment! Also that dam supplies water to Crimea so IF he did blow it will be pretty damn stupid!
Not only the critical water supply to Crimea but also cooling water for their NPP further up the reservoir. If it were destroyed then the major beneficiary would be Ukraine, cutting off the Russians west of the river and destroying their bridges.
So you have to ask why does Russia have 2 trucks parked on top of the dam loaded with explosives? Satellite imagery confirmed they have been there for a while.
The other reports of more explosives within the dam are credible from 2 workers that left the area recently on top of the other reports.
Why kind of professional soliders and officers would conduct this kind of operation?
I can see the response now. A himars blew up the dam.
He won’t respond as it will mean a reply which will be challenged. He just moved on to the next Russia/Ukraine story to peddle more nonce chuff!
What kind of war crimes will countries tolerate? China does plenty of its own and doesn’t care. India isn’t interested if it doesn’t effect them.
Just a question… why doesn’t Ukraine hit back with the same tactics?
They do but not on the same scale. They have been shelling civilian targets in Donetsk for years, often random houses using 122mm mortars. More recently using anti personnel ‘butterfly’ mines and HIMARS.
Oh stop pedalling this old nonsense. The supposed civilian targets that have been hit were shown to be being used for military purposes and it’s not even close to the civilian targets the Russians have hit.
We have all seen which side is the worst offender against civilians.
Even if it was true the fact the news comes out of Russia can’t be believed because they constantly lie about everything.
Russia can end this any time they like. Withdraw home. Simple. Anyone who wants to go to Russia can go also.
The west would happily pay them a few million quid each for relocation costs if it’s ends this savage Russian caused war.
Give yourself a bullshit tea break! You sing that sad tune continuously, desperate to try to justify your hero Putins invasion. And HIMARS has an accuracy unknown off by your orc rapists and therefore is used effectively and sparingly! Hardly gonna drop a valuable highly expensive guided munition on grandma’s house, unlike your dumb ordnance dumb military orc efforts at killing civvies.
To use Russian terror tactics just makes you as bad as them and nobody wants to be like that. The Ukrainians goal is simple. Stop Russia trying to take over there country. They are doing very well and Russia is increasingly using desperate tactics as nothing else works.
Russia spent the last 2 months getiing 2km closer to bachmut. Ukraine pushed them back those 2km in 2 days. Ukraine’s tactics are working and from history we know that attacking the civilian population just reinforces their resolve to fight. Nazis bombed U.K. it didn’t take our will. Allies bombed Germany. Same outcome. Every situation same outcome.
Looks like Bakhmut news could be wrong. A couple of sources are now reporting that the AFU posted a video from SINIAT cement plant claiming they recaptured it from Wagner (it was never under RU control). Then a twitter user got the cement plant & asphalt factory mixed up & celebrated recapturing the latter (which didn’t happen).
Interestingly enough I see Wagner is doing better than your rape squads, recruitment is up (obviously dross and prisoners) and is now effectively an Army within the Army and is being considered a threat to Putin by many in the Russian Nazi regime! Wagners head shed (Pooptins oligarch mate) is now a threat to your bed wetting Putin. Bit like Himmler, the SS and Hitler. The parallels with the Nazis continue!
If Ukraine can get in position that it pushes Russia out or Russia withdraws or it can have stability in most of the country they have a very strong case for saying to nato let us join and be protected by your nuclear weapons or we will need to get our own for deterrent value.
This case only gets stronger the more russia mentions nukes or god forbid uses them.
I would say they would need a bit of stability to build them as the west’s support may dip of they went that way.
If it’s what’s needed to keep them safe then it’s needed. Very unfortunately