Russia has recently increased its defensive fortifications in the central Zaporizhzhia Oblast region of southern Ukraine, specifically between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv, indicating concerns about the possibility of a major Ukrainian offensive.

The latest is from a British Ministry of Defence intelligence update, which can be found here.

According to the intelligence, Russia has recently increased its defensive fortifications in the central Zaporizhzhia Oblast region of southern Ukraine, specifically between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv. This suggests that Russian commanders are particularly concerned about the possibility of a major Ukrainian offensive in either northern Luhansk Oblast or Zaporizhzhia.

If Ukraine were to make a major breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia, it could seriously jeopardise Russia’s “land bridge” connecting the Rostov region and Crimea. Meanwhile, a Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia’s stated aim of “liberating” the Donbas region. Deciding which of these potential threats to prioritise is likely a major challenge for Russian operational planners.

You can read the update in its original form below.

“In recent weeks, Russia has bolstered defensive fortifications in central Zaporizhzhia Oblast, southern Ukraine, especially between the towns of Vasilyvka and Orikhiv. Russia maintains a large force in this sector. The way Russia has worked on improving defences suggests commanders are highly likely pre-occupied with the potential for major Ukrainian offensive action in two sectors: either in northern Luhansk Oblast, or in Zaporizhzhia.

A major Ukrainian breakthrough in Zaporizhzhia would seriously challenge the viability of Russia’s ‘land bridge’ linking Russia’s Rostov region and Crimea; Ukrainian success in Luhansk would further undermine Russia’s professed war aim of ‘liberating’ the Donbas. Deciding which of these threats to prioritise countering is likely one of the central dilemmas for Russian operational planners.”

Tom Dunlop
Tom Dunlop
Tom has spent the last 13 years working in the defence industry, specifically military and commercial shipbuilding. His work has taken him around Europe and the Far East, he is currently based in Scotland.

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19 COMMENTS

  1. The net outcome of any new Russian offensive will result in increased weapon supplies from the West. The nature of the weapons is also changing and even though America has been resisting calls for more involvement, that may be now in question in 2023? Some observers believe the US holding back is encouraging Putin to continue the war and if it were to become more strident there could be a change of heart from the Russians? One question I have is, what would JFK and brother Bobby have done when the threats of invasion became increasingly likely? Some say the only way to face down a bully is to stand full square and not give an inch.

    • Perhaps better to turn up the temperature of the cooking pot slowly. The difference may be either the frog escaping by hopping out of the pot, or frog legs for dinner. 🤔😉

  2. Russia boosts its defences: thousands more rape kits, black masks and masking tape have been delivered to the “cough”…front line troops….in order for them to continue the illegal war against a sovereign state, it’s civilians, females and young girls!

    • According to what i’ve read about the Wagner and Kadyrov ‘soldiers’ it’s the young men and boys who are at greatest risk.

    • Hopefully Ukrainian forces can get a break through East of Mariupol sometime soon and then head west and bulldoze the Russian’s out all the way to Crimea and into the Asov sea. Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦, its armed forces, it’s people and President.

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