The UK Government has refuted claims that an independent Scotland would continue to build ships for the Royal Navy.

In the recently released ‘Building a New Scotland: an independent Scotland’s Place in the World’, the Scottish Government set out proposals for an independent Scotland’s place in the world.

On shipbuilding, the paper states:

“Scotland is already home to renowned shipbuilders and has significant shipbuilding capabilities which can be seen by the work undertaken by both BAE[49] and Babcock[50] in delivering world- leading ships for the Royal Navy. This Scottish Government’s intention would be to use the capability of Scottish yards to create the maritime capability for the navy of an independent Scotland.

Companies in an independent Scotland would also be expected to be in a strong position to compete for UK Defence work, following a recent change in UK naval procurement policy. The UK Government published a refreshed national shipbuilding strategy in March 2022, confirming that the procurement approach for all UK naval ships is now to be decided on a case-by-case basis and can be open to single source procurement, UK competition, international competition, or a blended approach comprising UK and international competition.

This Scottish Government firmly believes that the world-leading capability of Scottish yards would continue to be attractive to the UK Government in the period beyond independence and we do not believe the expertise that exists there would be easy to replicate elsewhere in the UK.”

However, I spoke to someone relatively senior in the Ministry of Defence on this, wishing to remain anonymous, she told me:

“The Scottish Government’s expectations for the shipbuilding industry post-independence appear to overlook several considerations. Our policy of commissioning ‘complex’ Royal Navy warships exclusively within the United Kingdom is driven by imperatives of national security and the safeguarding of sensitive technology. Consequently, an independent Scotland would regrettably be positioned outside this established policy framework, rendering the continuation of such contracts highly problematic.

Furthermore, the challenges associated with adhering to international defence regulations, notably ITAR, are substantial. For a newly independent state, these challenges would be formidable. It’s also important to clarify that the procurement of naval tankers from South Korea does not indicate a shift in policy towards the construction of complex warships; it remains a policy firmly applied only to support vessels. Considering these aspects, it appears that the Scottish Government’s optimistic outlook fails to fully engage with the detailed realities of defence procurement and the intricacies of international regulatory compliance.'”

A statement by a previous Defence Minister, Phillip Dunne MP, reads.

“Had the independence vote gone the way that he and his colleagues would have liked, no warships would have been built on the Clyde, because the United Kingdom Government would not have chosen to build them there; we made that very clear.”

More recently, and on the record, the Ministry of Defence themselves told me:

“UK Defence supports more than 12,000 jobs in Scotland and more than £2 billion is spent annually with the local defence industry. Scotland is home to the Royal Navy’s Type 26 and Type 31 frigate building programmes, RAF Lossiemouth and the UK’s submarine fleet, with the nuclear deterrent protecting every person in the UK, every minute of the day. HMNB Clyde is one of the largest employment sites in Scotland.”

George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

130 COMMENTS

  1. Scottish shipbuilding is basically proper up-by the RN orders. The civilian sector was proving to be uncompetitive internationally. An independent Scotland would either loose its ship building or have to continually subsidise it – turning an asset into a liability.

    • You are right, one of the companies owners told his staff that they should vote the way they want, but if yes wins, he will pack up and move back to England. This was one of many ex England based companies who were told, if they want to continue to get government contracts, they need to move to Scotland. If these companies leave, taking equipment, expertise and investment, Scotland will start off on the back foot. SNP would cut every Scottish person’s nose off to spite every Scottish person’s face, just to gain ultimate power, that’s all thry care about, power.

      • Your first sentence is the definition of blackmail. You are merely extrapolating to present a point of view of wishful thinking.

    • Yes that is the current basis of all large ship production. The UK subsidises Naval ship production anyway, so what is new? If RN didn’t order warships would anyone produce them commercially and who would build them unless there was a confirmed buyer? That is the nature of warship building around the world. The civilian shupbuilding capability across the UK is also uncompetitive internationally – why do we buy ships from foreign countries? The criticism you make is not confined to Scotland and you make the mistake of assuming something contrary for the rest of the UK. When inventing an argument make sure you compare and contrast like with like.

  2. But where else would the RN build its ships if Scotland went independent?

    I really hope the SNP gets a good pasting at the next election, that is the best hope we have for the UK Shipbuilding industry.

    • There’d have to be large investment to rebuild facilities for Frigate and Destroyer production. We already make our Subs and future support vessels in other parts of the UK though

        • H&W rebuilding is well underway and with Navantias help will become a big challenger to the BAe and Babcock. Appledore is back up and running, Camel Liard are also very capable and bid for T31 with BAe, also maintaining vessels like the T45.

          Don’t forget Rosyth upgraded their facilities of of a low end frigate order, and iyt didn’t take long. So likes of CL could easily do the same.

          • It will be many more years, decades probably, before another Scottish indyref would be granted. SNP had their shot & lost.

          • Sinn fein is now in power at Stormont, they are pushing for a United Ireland so not the best choice.

          • Reports of Northern Ireland being removed from the union are exaggerated. Sinn Fein gained 29% of the Vote and have 30% of the seats in Stormont. Northern Ireland’s track record in military contract delivery is well proven over decades, even during the recent “Troubles” period. It continues to have a skilled workforce capable of carrying out MOD work.

        • If would take years thrashing out how to manage the split, time to get alternative yards running. Brexit was nothing compared to how complex this would be.

          • No all we have to do is start now to invest in another yard to get it upto speed before they have another vote, even if the vote went against the nationalists it still better to have two yards for the simple fact we the government has forgotten the lesson it learned in WW2 where manufacturing was spread out and not kept in one place. Just think it would take one bomb or one accident and it could wipe out the RN ship building in this country for years.

          • Or the alternative is to be held hostage by an independent Scottish government if they got their way. Just imagine if they used an unfinished ship or ships as a bargaining chip to get their way.

          • Moving the work would only cause more disruption. Would rather any spare funds went to speeding it up.

          • ,But even if they spent money to speed the build up, it would still leave the UK nowhere to build any RN ships if they got independence. We might as well get the French to build them….

          • Why would we get the french to built them? The vote failed. If it does go through, the funding will have to be put up to move production.

          • OK we wait till they have a vote worst case they win, how long do you think it will take to get a shipyard upto dated to build RN ships a few years so we just sit on our hands till we can start rebuilding ships South of the border remember by law RN ships can not be made by a foreign nation. I was been sarcastic about the French just like a independent Scotland they can’t build RN ships.

          • What particular vote is there to wait for??
            Only forthcoming local elections are planned and the unpopular nationalists seem set to lose spectacularly!!

          • I hope you are right they loose the local election. At some point they may be another independent vote in the future nobody knows when but there could be a chance every five years it depends on the government of the time in Westminster all it takes is a government who sympathetic towards the Nationalists. Look at Cameron and Brexit he thought whole heartily that it would be a no vote and he messed that up. Is not best to be prepared just think if there was another yard not in Scotland capable of large ship building. There is no law stating that RN ships have to be built is Scotland they only went there as a sweetener to the SNP. If the SNP gets kicked out of government then I probably would change my opinion but till that happens I will think we need to be prepared.

          • It also depends on more than just Westminster, but also on opinions North of the Border and as stated, this party is on a serious decline and on its way out! A flash in the pan of history.

          • The SNP are pinning all their hopes on a good showing at the polls, so pull out all the BS good points about losing so many votes being a good thing for independent Scotland and call for another indyref vote!

          • Unsure what you mean?
            The Scots already have two political parties calling for independence and neither will attract much popularity in forthcoming elections? Why therefore have yet another referendum?
            Maybe we should just keep having referenda until we finally get the right answer?.

          • As long as the SNP are in power they will threaten independence. So its best to prepare for the worst case and update a shipyard and once that is done if the SNP keeps threatening the ship building is transferred to a UK yard, so they will be blamed for their one tracked mind that Scotland lost RN ship building.

          • The SNP can huff & puff all they like. They do not & can not decide when the UK permits an indeyref. there would have to be consistant polls of Scottish opinion with a clear majority for independance. Besides, SNP devolved rule has probably scuppered any chances of succes.

          • I,m Scottish and served my time as a welder in Govan. I,m glad to see what,s happening there and hope it continues. The Clyde was once world famous for its shipbuilding history but that shower have tarnished that reputation with the two ferries being built, 6 years late and about 4 times over budget and still not finished. The snp with Useless in charge have no chance of independence. I would,nt trust them to run a bath. 🇬🇧🏴󠁧󠁢󠁳󠁣󠁴󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿🏴󠁧󠁢󠁷󠁬󠁳󠁿

        • This is why we should have not put all our eggs in one basket, very short sighted just to keep the Scottish nationalists happy we should have stop investing in Scotland years ago and started to invest in the south of the border.

          • Hate to point this out, but bae systems (main rn ship builders in Govan and Whiteinch, are not a Scottish company, those funds do not remain in Scotland, at best there is some employment, but compared to the 60s/70s those shipyards are ghost towns in terms of staffing… to be honest, the shipyards (like nearly every other national asset) are not UK owned any more, they are mostly multinationals now.. if we ever need these things in an emergency, we are screwed….

          • I didn’t mention once about BAE been a Scottish company I only ever mention the location which these ships are built and an independent Scotland….

          • Please clarify in a discussion the use of one or two words like your comments don’t help. What part is wrong, plus what part of Lee John Fursman is wrong.

      • That’s already well underway at H&W. Camel Liard are already very capable. And don’t forget Rosyth upgrade their build facilities off the back of a relatively low value order. Yards like CL could do the same.

        • Camel Liars couldn’t manage to actually finish Dauntless refit and it had to be finished by BAE if I recall. Within investment perhaps they’d be able to content but they’re nowhere near great rn.

        • But you’d have a lot of people that have built frigates at yards that suddenly have no orders. BAe planned to.offer T31 built by Camel Liard so if the UK leading warship builder think they can do it that a pretty good endorsement

    • The only reason RN ships are built in Scotland was to try show favour to Scotland at the time they were voting for independence. They actually closed shipyards in the rest of the UK when this happened, South of England and Northern Ireland lost out to keep the nationalists happy in Scotland. It would just take a reinvestment south of Scotland to start building them without the Scottish shipyards they could use them to build ferries oh thats right they can’t. The Tyne has a great shipbuilding history with the right investment it could be great again.

      • You are forgetting that Scotland shipbuilding has been a thing since as far the British Empire, some of the most powerful warship have been built in Scotland like HMS Hood for instance

        • There was no SNP in power then. When HMS Hood was built the UK had a large ship building industry all over the country.

        • Same goes for all the English yards that built RN ships. Legacy is not the issue. The history of Scottish RN shipbuilding is not less than English or H&W yards. Indeed they’ve had preferential treatment in the recent decade +.

    • SNP just keep winning elections. As a unionist you will hate the fact, but they’ll win again at GE.

    • There’s plenty of places up north or wales. It would cost some money but there would be plenty of places willing to host the submarines. It would be a mass exodus of RN money and expertise.

      • Milford Haven in West Wales would seem to be a natural choice, relatively remote from major urban centres, protected natural harbour, easy access to the western approaches or a quick trip up the Irish Sea to the North.

        They’d need to build the ammunition depots etc. which would be expensive but not inconcievable.

        The only major issue I can see, and perhaps more learned people know of other issues, is that the harbour is also a major LNG import hub, not sure if that would cause an issue with submarine movements in and out of the harbour but again, surely not insurmountable if the need was really there.

  3. Nice quote – “ it appears that the Scottish Government’s optimistic outlook fails to fully engage with the detailed realities of defence procurement”

    With this bunch of inexperienced, incompetent, out-of-their-depth government, that phrase should/could be amended and used almost everywhere they stick their grubby paws into.

    • Unfortunately engaging with the detailed realities of governance in general seems to be beyond the current crop of politicians of all stripes.

  4. This is like Groundhog Day. The position of the UK government is that UK warships are built in the UK. The SNP knows this perfectly well, but continues to lie about it in the hopes that the Scottish electorate won’t know any better, so they keep trotting out the same claims, and the government keeps on refuting them, and around and around we go. It’s tedious.

    • It’s tedious but accepted by some to have a post truth, fact free discourse on political matters.

      That breaks Democracy where well informed voters decide which candidates prefer the values and objectives they share.

      Just calling something true without independent verification is telling a possible lie and repetition is not truth. Sadly repetition has been shown to lead to acceptance even without proof.

      Open source information and verification is key to fighting misinformation and the effect it may have on Democracy.

      Both the SNP and the FSB know that which informs their efforts to undermine western countries. Just look at the FSB Kompromat success in the USA.

      Since 2015, they have supported a convicted fraudster and rapist to become US President and make decisions against the US national security interest.

      The US Supreme Court has just undermined the Constitution of the United States in accepting that States cannot exclude Insurrectionists from the ballot.

      Next they will consider the rationale for Dictatorship that a serving President can’t be accountable for criminal acts. Seal Team 6 stand by to kill ‘dis-loyal people’.

      If FSB are successful in breaking USA from within, that would be a powerful demonstration of the malign value of misinformation..

      • That is the very real clear & present danger to democracy. Trump has been making noises about going after his opponents for quite a while. I could see civil war breaking out. Failing that, a one party fascist state.
        And I’m not even a Biden fan.
        A USA dictatorship would be far more unstable & unpredictable for peace between China & Russia. They tend to fall out eventually.

  5. Having visited a number of times I have to say I love Scotland. I have worked there and I have a Scot as a brother in law BUT please get rid of the SNP. There only real role in life is making the Westminster parliament look sensible by comparison.😉

    • This may sound daft, but the SNP and their monosyllabic mantra of “Scotland good, England bad and Independence is a Nirvana future” actually contributes to the long term future of the RN.
      It ensures Westminster can’t cut the RN Frigate number below 13, and that jobs are safe guarded by having a continuous work stream.
      Without that promise to build 13 frigates does anyone think they would have all been ordered ?
      IMHO the SNP are the RNs best defence.🥴

      • A barmy way to run a defence budget so knowing our politicians you’re probably right my friend. Long live the SNP!!!

  6. £2bn IN Scotland out of a total of £46bn? Thanks for next to fcuk all….whiskey exports alone2023 = £5.6bn.
    Norway with similar population has a thriving shipbuilding industry defence and civil…or are you going to come up with something borderline racist?

    • Norway tends to get its ships built elsewhere – the Nansens were all Navantia I believe. The Skjold class were all built in Norway but they are under 300 tons.
      They just don’t have a large enough navy to keep a yard running for larger surface combatants, which an independent Scotland may well find to be true if no orders from the RN are placed with Scottish builders. Norway is seeking a collaborative partnership for their next ships as well, recognising that they can’t afford a bespoke design (or that it doesn’t represent best value)

  7. It’ll go to Harland and Wolff if it does move from Scotland. They’ve already been given some MOD contracts. Including building new facilities in the Falkland Islands.

    • They have no experience with frigate construction and we’ve yet to see if there will be delays to the FSSS program. Which will also leave then occupied into the 2030s.

      • Whatever the technical merits of doing so, it will be politically impossible for a UK government of any political persuasion to continue RN shipbuilding in Scotland.

        While it will be expensive to recreate the necessary physical infrastructure in rUK, the technical expertise resides within BAe and Babcock and associated contractors, and can be moved relatively easily.

        • True. But workers wont be moved, will have to find a new workforce. Tbh I don’t think any contingency will happen, only if an independence vote goes through. So let’s just hope independence doesn’t happen.

    • Some yes, but also wise to spread it around & restore at Pompey, Plymouth, Merseyside, Appledore & the NE. Puerely treasury led concentration simply enables the crippling of the nations navy in war. A bit of dispersal is a military necessity. for both refits/repairs/modernisations & new builds.

  8. Made same comments about Oil and Gas fields in North Sea, that it would bring Billions in revenue to Scotland but overestimated amount they would get from this to make Scottish Government look powerful.

  9. World naval shipbuilding is likely to escalate over the next 15-20 years as instability continues and China massively expands its navy. India, US, Japan, Australia, UK et al are all embarking on naval expansion in response. SNP couldn’t be picking a worst time from that perspective to push independence. Scotland will be locked out on warships and South Korea and Turkey will nose in on auxiliary ship construction. A “fairer society” requires money and jobs – this isn’t the way to achieve it.

  10. Mind, you’ll also need some where else to park your subs! Can’t be abroad as that’ll breach nuclear treaties! Add that to your relocation costs! 😉

    • Two pro independence political parties exist in Scotland and both are on track not to attract much popularity in forthcoming elections!
      Just the reality!

  11. I’m sure an independent Scotland would be quite capable of running it’s own shipbuilding industry. With regard to military ships, it will have the expertise to build it’s own ships for a future Scottish navy.

  12. Oh well, we’ll need to stick to our other speciality, building ferries. As long as you’re not in a hurry

  13. If Scotland gets it’s independance, and I say good riddance, they need to stand on their own. I hope all Royal Naval, Army and Airforce connections would be severed!! They can keep the Black watch!!

    • It seems as if your message is calling for the break-up of the U.K.!
      How reckless and dangerous!
      There are too many short-sighted individuals already peddling such off-the -shelf proposals, which only further endanger stability and security!

      • How exactly is it short sighted? If the majority of the people concerned want independance let them have it! Scotland hardly offers the stability you are gobbing off about and is unlikely to declare war with us so I think our security would be unchanged. Just because you disagree with an opinion it doesn’t mean that opinion is wrong. Or are you one of these people that think they know everything about everything? I suspect this is the case!

        • Ooooooh!!
          Yes – you are quite right – we are all entitled to our opinion – even me!
          But – ‘the majority of people’ you mention do not want independence. Follow the media north of the border to see this.
          I am no expert as you rightly indicate, but merely added the above facts to augment the interesting discussion!
          So therefore in light of that, and with your public encouragement for the break-up of the UK, somehow you still seem to think that I am ‘gobbing off’? Hmmm??
          Oh well, long live free speech!! I trust we can agree on that ( politely)?

  14. I do wonder what removing military shipbuilding would do to the Scottish economy as a whole.Building civilian ships is something not even the SNP are claiming is something they could turn too. Building two ferries didnt go too well. Removing military shipbuilding from Scotland would be like removing financial services from London. Someone on this forum criticised me for saying Scots indy was like a kick in the nuts for Scotland. I hope the above explains it for him.

  15. Who made the claims that Scotland would continue to build warships for the Royal Navy? This is a piece of non-news about something that has never been claimed still less stated.

  16. I believe the UK needs to set aside a site now for a mega shipyard in England and Wales in the event of the removal of Scotland from the picture. It may need to be on a greenfield site and require legislation to get it done. There would be legal challenges to planning so it would be necessary to forward plan for this eventuality. With planning and associated works this would take a Parliament or so to get it all done and probably 1.5bn GBP. I am talking of buying the site and getting planning done now.
    I know Government doesn’t do forward planning due to an abhorrence of even thinking but its essential it does for defence issues.

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