More ‘Red Lines’ than troops: Russia’s endless warnings

When it comes to Russia’s so-called “red lines,” the Kremlin appears to have mastered the art of ambiguity.

These lines—boldly declared by President Vladimir Putin—are meant to be strict boundaries that foreign powers dare not cross, or so we’re led to believe.

However, in reality, they seem to shift more frequently than a London fog, and with just as little clarity.

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Let’s rewind to April 2021, when Putin first issued one of his many warnings, outlining where the West must not tread. The rhetoric was simple: Russia would not tolerate NATO’s interference in Ukraine, and any such involvement would cross a red line, sparking dire consequences.

Then came February 2022, and despite NATO’s growing support for Ukraine, Russia still drew another line, launching what it euphemistically called a “Special Military Operation” to safeguard its national interests. According to Putin, the West had gone too far by backing Kyiv, and this was Moscow’s ultimate response.

But here’s the thing: Putin’s lines in the sand haven’t held. Instead of triggering an apocalyptic showdown, the West kept pushing, rightly. Weapons flowed into Ukraine, intelligence was shared, and military aid poured in from NATO member states.

Each step was said to cross one of Russia’s “red lines,” and yet the Kremlin’s threats of retaliation never materialised. It’s as though each warning from Moscow is a bluff, designed to slow down Western support while the world debates whether to call Russia’s hand.

Take the case of long-range missiles. In 2022, Putin warned that providing Ukraine with these could be the last straw, something Moscow could never tolerate. And yet, in 2023, Ukraine started using British-supplied Storm Shadow missiles—without any spectacular Russian retaliation. The missiles, with a range of over 150 miles, have already struck targets in Russian-held Crimea, but Russia’s much-touted “red line” remains mysteriously intact.

Then there was the infamous warning about Western tanks. Putin and his officials declared that sending modern battle tanks to Ukraine would cross an unthinkable threshold. In January 2023, when countries like the UK sent Challenger 2 tanks, along with American Abrams and German Leopard tanks, we were told it could escalate into something far worse. Yet, no such escalation followed. The red line faded, just like so many others.

Perhaps the most revealing example is Russia’s response to Western fighter jets. For years, Moscow warned that delivering advanced fighter aircraft like the F-16s would force Russia’s hand, potentially even leading to nuclear consequences. By 2024, F-16s were on their way to Ukraine, with NATO powers increasingly comfortable providing more military hardware. Putin’s threats once again proved hollow—another red line casually brushed aside by the West.

The concept of red lines should, theoretically, be unbreakable barriers. Instead, Moscow has developed a talent for moving the goalposts. When Ukraine made its first foray into Russian territory in Kursk in August 2024, an undeniable violation of yet another so-called boundary, the world held its breath. But rather than unleashing the wrath of Russia’s military machine, Putin’s response was… well, not much.

Sure, there was some bluster about nuclear weapons—because what’s a Russian crisis without a few mentions of Armageddon?—but once again, the West called his bluff, and the world carried on.

What’s happening here is simple: Putin’s red lines are about as firm as jelly. They exist mainly to sow doubt and fear in Western capitals, delaying military support for Ukraine by making everyone wonder what would happen if they went one step too far. But each time the West has called Moscow’s bluff, Russia has quietly moved its line back, pretending that nothing has changed.

The result? We’re witnessing a pattern where Russian threats, which were once viewed with caution, are now seen as little more than a rhetorical device. The red lines keep moving, shifting with every new Western delivery of arms, every Ukrainian advance, and every sign that Russia’s military might isn’t quite what it used to be.

And while there’s always the risk of Russia reacting unpredictably, especially with the ever-present nuclear card being dangled, the more likely scenario is that Putin will continue to huff and puff, without blowing the geopolitical house down.

So, next time you hear about yet another Russian red line, don’t panic. Chances are, it’s already been crossed—and no one in Moscow is quite sure where to draw the next one.