UK warned it is ‘vulnerable’ to missile attack

The UK’s missile defence capabilities are in urgent need of improvement, according to a new report from the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee.

Published on 26th September 2024, the report, titled “Ukraine: A Wake-Up Call”, highlights the UK’s vulnerabilities and calls for significant investment in integrated air and missile defence (IAMD), drawing on key lessons from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Lord de Mauley, chair of the Committee, did not mince his words: “Successive governments have attempted to maintain the notion of the UK as a global power, but the war in Ukraine has been a wake-up call, laying bare the gap between that ambition and reality.”

One of the report’s central themes is the pressing need for the UK to invest in modern missile defences. The war in Ukraine has shown how crucial air superiority and missile defence are in today’s conflicts. The Committee stresses that the UK must not fall behind: “The war in Ukraine has demonstrated that air defences are essential to prevent attritional ground conflict,” the report states, urging the Government to make air and missile defence a top priority.

While the UK’s geographical position does offer some protection from direct missile strikes, the report warns against any sense of complacency: “Unlike Ukraine, the UK is comparatively protected by geographical distance from attacks by ground-based short-range missiles (and drones). However, there is no cause for complacency.”

The report further notes that in the event of a NATO conflict with Russia, the UK could become a key target due to its strategic role as a primary base for US forces entering Europe. The Committee highlights the fact that the UK remains vulnerable to “long-range missiles, submarine-launched missiles, and standoff munitions fired by combat aircraft and stealth fighters.”

A major concern highlighted by the Committee is the UK’s over-reliance on the United States for missile defence capabilities, a situation the report describes as “unsustainable.” The UK is heavily dependent on US assets for air defence, particularly in suppressing enemy air defences (SEAD). The Committee warns that “No European NATO air forces have sufficient expertise or munitions stocks to conduct suppression and destruction of enemy air defences (SEAD/DEAD) at scale.”

To mitigate this, the Committee calls for greater collaboration with European allies. It highlights the European Sky Shield Initiative (ESSI), a German-led project aimed at establishing a European air defence system, which the UK has expressed interest in joining. The report encourages the Government to seriously consider joining the ESSI and “provide an assessment of the merits of joining the initiative and update us on progress.”

The Committee points to successful European defence collaborations, such as the Aircraft Carrier Alliance, as models for how the UK could work with its partners to fill gaps in missile defence capabilities. “Working with our European NATO partners on interoperability and joint procurement to fill capability gaps makes great sense and can manage some of the high costs involved by helping to deliver economies of scale,” the report suggests.

The Committee does not shy away from criticising the UK’s previous lack of investment in missile defence, noting that while progress is being made, it remains slow: “While these developments are welcome, we note that they are still very much in their infancy and will require greater prioritisation, as well as significant time and investment to mature.”

The report references NATO’s 2023 Vilnius summit, where the importance of improving air defences was recognised, with commitments to enhance readiness and capabilities. However, the Committee urges the Government to accelerate its own efforts, pointing out that IAMD and SEAD/DEAD capabilities come at a “significant financial cost, both in terms of equipment and training.”

The UK has taken some initial steps, such as plans to enhance its maritime-based Sea Viper air defence system by 2028 and contribute to NATO’s Ballistic Missile Defence Radar. The report also highlights the Ministry of Defence’s DIAMOND initiative (Delivering Integrated Air and Missile Operational Networked Defences), which aims to improve interoperability with European allies.

Beyond missile defence, the report raises concerns about the broader risks to the UK’s critical national infrastructure (CNI), drawing parallels with the hybrid and conventional attacks Russia has launched against Ukraine’s CNI. The Committee calls for a “whole-of-Government effort” to strengthen the UK’s resilience against these threats, including from cyber and electromagnetic warfare.

“Russia has targeted Ukraine’s critical national infrastructure through hybrid and conventional attacks, and the UK is not exempt from these threats,” the report warns, urging the Government to take a more holistic approach to national defence.