The Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) has issued an elevated threat advisory for key maritime routes following what it describes as an Israeli ultimatum: either a nuclear agreement is reached between Iran and the United States by Sunday, or “Israeli leadership has an intent to initiate military action against Iran.”

According to Update 001 – JMIC# 008-25, released via the UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) network, this development is based on “open-source media” and marks a serious escalation.

“The statement introduces a short operational pause until Sunday to allow diplomatic efforts,” the advisory notes.

Although there is currently “no indication that the maritime nexus is changed,” JMIC stresses that it is continuing to monitor the situation and will issue further updates if required.

The bulletin warns:

“Open-source information and regional diplomatic developments indicate a marked escalation in tensions between Israel and Iran. The situation remains fluid and highly volatile.”

“At present, there is no direct evidence that commercial shipping is being targeted. However, given the proximity of regional flashpoints to major maritime routes and chokepoints, the potential for rapid escalation involving the maritime environment should not be discounted.”

It also highlights the risk posed by other groups:

“Additional threats from non-state actors such as the Houthis, who have publicly stated their intent to respond if the U.S. is perceived to be involved, also increase the risk of a broader regional impact.”

JMIC provided a brief summary of the current landscape:

“Diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran concerning nuclear negotiations have reportedly stalled.”

“Rhetoric from regional actors has intensified; increasing the probability of military operations involving direct engagement.”

“There is a possibility potential operations could spill over beyond bilateral hostilities into the wider region.”

UKMTO and JMIC continue to advise merchant vessels in the region to report their positions regularly and remain alert to updates. JMIC is expected to issue another update following the outcome of this weekend’s diplomatic deadline.

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88 COMMENTS

  1. Here we go. Where is the POW battle group? How many US carriers are in the region? Just in time for Trump’s birthday parade….

  2. Fingers crossed Starmar has enough sense to stay well out of this.

    Does anyone know the terms of the US lease on Diego Garcia? Can they use it without our permission?

    I really hope so, I would not even want to be seen providing basing for another US adventure in the ME in support of their number one ally who seems to completely ignore anything they say.

    • Asked that a few weeks back, to those who want to we will become a serious target I fear. As usual it’s safer for many of these actors to target ‘little Satan’ rather than full on mad, bad and deeply scary BIG Satan.

      • As far as I can tell before 2016 they didn’t but after the lease was extended it may have included such a clause.

      • If you think the UK is not already a target of Iran then I believe you are incredibly naive. They wouldn’t hesitate to provide terror organisations with nukes to attack western targets, including the UK.

        These strikes are completely justified, and make everyone in the UK safer as a result.

  3. What will Trump do to stop Israel? It’s just what the World needs right now, another war!! However, the US is removing some embassy personnel from Iran, and it may all be real. It will be interesting to see which side the UK Government will choose, considering recent events?

    • Starmer will say we’re backing Israel, oh ..no we’re not. We are in favour of an agreement…with somebody, I think.

    • ” the US is removing some embassy personnel from Iran”
      Th US has no embassy in Iran. I suppose you want to mean Israel.

    • Trump has given the green light, one of the reasons he kisses the ing if Putin is to try use his influence on Iran (he won’t whatever kisses he’s blown at Trump) and perhaps a lot more likely Russia won’t interfere whatever its harsh words in response. Trump relies on the Christian Zionists as they are called, and they may hate Jews often with a vengeance, but hey no Israel, no second coming of their dear Lord. One messed up World but what irony all this conflict caused or fuelled by the man claiming he was taking America out of wars. But then in his World we aro all classed as proxy warriors just as the Houthis et al are Iran’s proxy warriors. No doubt we will be re-visiting the old two schoolboys in the park fighting baloney again as he having instigated it claims to not be involved and indeed is trying 25 hours a day to bring peace to the region as he lied about the recent Indian/Pakistan conflict to India’s intense anger. And meantime this all stems from him in his first innings dropping the Iran nuclear deal without any idea of what to do next other than thinking empty threats would solve all. Now he’s repeating the error but with real ones to save face. Let’s hope Britain plays its reaction sensibly, if we give a message of support however you will know Trump has been threatening Starmer behind the scenes with something, like raising car and steel tariffs again blah, blah, blah. So much for the freedom to make our own de isions eh should that happen.

      • You are out of your mind, heavy TDS there .
        This has been 2 decades in building.
        After 7 October under Biden (or an unknown unelected President – which i find interesting all bien pensants don’t care about…) the Islamic Iranian game was up. Israel have no other solution than degrade and eventually destroy the regime or be destroyed.

    • It suits trump perfectly. There are indication that they have completely caved to china in their trade war and china has come out winning more than they had at the start. So this is a great distraction to keep the news busy and not reporting it.

  4. Good if true. Unlike Iraq, Iran is actually moving towards WMD development and is currently fighting a proxy war against us. If unchecked, the UK may end up in range of Iranian nuclear missiles. Our children will not forgive us for letting that happen.

    Yeah, both sides share blame, but this is the situation we’re in.

    • You are not wrong whatever the missteps that brought us to this but this building up of Israel to increasingly behave little differently to Hamas with the US covering its ass is not going to solve anything longer term, we are building up a dangerous rod for our own backs to serve the US and Zisraeli extremists and those people really are no different to Hamas so empowering them is really letting genies out of bottles and throwing away the cork.

        • Your disingenuousness is hilarious.
          You play the race card against all legitimate criticism of the Netanyahu government. Your ‘logic’ makes Israeli politicians such as Yair Lapid and Yair Golan anti-Semites… 🤦🏻‍♂️😂

          • What legitimate criticism? i saw nothing there. Did he deny that Iranian regime wants to destroy Israel? And thjat this conflict only occurs because Islamist Iran wants to destroy Israel?

            Imagine that France converted to Islam and says that wants to destroy UK and supports an attack against UK what would be your behavior?

      • The good news is that Israel isn’t anything like Hamas (I’m sure the Palestinians would disagree, but we don’t live in Palestine and have the luxury of perspective). Israel can be an absolute pain to deal with, but it’s not our enemy. It’s more like a precocious, sometimes exasperating cousin. There is no plausible scenario in which it would pose a military threat to us. Iran can.

        Looks like the party is kicking off in Tehran tonight, so thank you Israel. It’s deeply unfortunate that things have got to this stage, but I don’t see any other solution to the problem.

    • I mean do you blame them? The EU agreed a deal for Iran to stop developing nukes and the trump in his first term pulled out of the deal. Since then the us and Israel have been constantly threating Iran. The only way to peace with them is the olive branch.

      • It doesn’t really matter who is to blame at this point. What matters is preventing an enemy from being able to threaten us with a nuclear strike.

        Of course Iran has rational reasons for wanting nuclear weapons. But that doesn’t mean we need to share their point of view. Keep in mind that Iran has a long history of attacking British military and civilian interests. It is not our friend.

    • It doesn’t sound like a one and done attack. Netanyahu was quoted as saying

      “Moments ago Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a targeted military operation to roll back the Iranian threat to Israel’s very survival. This operation will continue for as many days as it takes to remove the spread.”

  7. The nightmare scenatio isn’t Iran getting nukes, although that would be bad enough. It’s Iran supplying nukes.

    • Agreed. Once again Israel is doing the dirt work that ultimately protects Europe and America. Of course they would be Iran’s first target, but there is no doubt they’d be happy to supply nukes to terrorists and others for attacks against western countries.

      There is no legitimate reason to be enriching uranium to the levels they have been.

      • Care to explain that?

        How does Israel causing a mess in the middle east do anything other than causing significant increased risk to the UK? They are just giving terrorist groups all over the world an excuse to act.

        • We had a solution to Iran, it was the deal that Obama agreed, and which trump shredded purely for news stories and without a plan b

          • The deal was a sticking plaster. The Iranians were hiding evidence from inspectors and using loopholes in the agreement to further their ambitions whilst pretending to be nice so they didn’t get sanctioned. Their rhetoric towards Israel never changed. The deal is still in place, the US just withdrew as one of the sox signatories, but Iran didn’t give a toss about the rest of the P5+1 countries, so jusy started to openly breach the terms. It’s been a long time coming but they are/were at the point where they could almost build a nuke. There is no other legitimate reason for enriching uranium to those levels. That’s an existential threat to Israel, and a huge threat to Europe, the US, other ME countries ( especially Saudi), and the world economy.

            No matter how we reached this point, something had to be done urgently to stop them getting viable nukes.

          • Zero evidence of them hiding stuff, and it was international watchdog reporting. Just suited trump to say it. I think we can agree Iran is a threat to the west but it’s a threat we created and constantly isolating them is proven not to work. We have the data from decades now demonstrating it’s not working, so maybe try a different more peaceful approach for a change.

  8. Good
    The conversations and attempts to get Iran to stop enriching weapons grade uranium have stalled and failed.
    Israel has already said they will not allow Iran to have enough uranium to build nuclear weapons. This is the result.
    I’d hope the USA would join the attacks Vs Iran but probably not needed. Israel can probably do the job with it’s long range air assets.

  9. I’m no fan of Netanyahu but he is right when he says Iran’s nuclear program has matured to the state where it is a ‘clear and present danger’ to the survival of Israel. Very comprehensive strike reportedly involving 200 aircraft.

      • Iran has an ancient culture which pre-dates its conquest by the Muslims. The Mullahs are cuckoos in the nest. Persia was once the centre of Zoroastrianism, a faith which predicts the ultimate victory of good over evil. Iran’s younger generation have a western outlook; let’s hope they can bring about change.

        • Zoroastrianism are proscuted in Iran with their temples and shrines destroyed. Of course the “human rights activists” that journalists like to like don’t care about.

          Another of Iranian prosecuted religion is Baha´í, which can only have a Middle East temple in Israel in the famous Haifa gardens.

          • Re “ChrisLondon” – he believes it is racist to criticise the Netanyahu government for killing innocent Palestinian women and children. He believes it is ok to commit genocide against Palestinians because Hamas seeks the same for Israel. He doesn’t differentiate between Hamas terrorists Palestinian civilians. If anyone points this out, he plays the race card.

          • Re Spock’s genocide post. Just wondering where Israel has ever stated or demonstrated the intent to destroy the Palestinians as a distinct ethnic and religious group. Is it written down anywhere? Are there recordings of Israeli military and political leaders doing so? You use an emotive term like genocide regarding Israel that according to the UN definition has no basis in fact.
            Article II of the UN Convention describes genocide as a crime committed with the intent to destroy a national, ethnic, racial or religious group, in whole or in part. It does not include political groups or so called cultural genocide.
            Care to justify your use of such an emotive term in relation to Israel?

          • Eschatology …the end times? Personally I put it all down to the Mayan calendar end of the world 21st Dec 2012. David Cameron announced the EU referendum in Jan 2013. Welcome to the Age of Aquarius😂

    • I mean Israel has attacked Iran twice now and have nukes or their own, not sure they have any high ground here. It’s a mess

      • Israel does not have any constitutional / religous aim to eliminate Iran or any other country. Iran does. Israel doesn’t actually admit to having nukes, but we 99% know they do, and its nuclear posture is entirely defensive. Its record of non-use of nuclear weapons is clear evidence of that.

        They are a small non-muslim country surrounded by many much larger muslim countries that on many levels don’t recognise israel’s right to exist. And they have been subject to existential attacks numerous times by coalitions of those neighbouring countries within living memory. That’s a very different situation to Iran. Israel has a much more legitimate reason to have a small nuclear deterrent.

  11. Yeah… I say we should steer clear of this one. Keep our eyes firmly on Russia for now.

    It’s not like Israel can’t handle Iran on their own. If the Orange Sex Offender wants to get involved, let him. Just don’t drag us into it!

    I know Russia’s not the only threat but it is the most clear and present one, and we can’t afford to get involved in this and derailed from plans for the armed forces to deter Russia (or fight them if needed) with NATO.

    • If Iran acquired nuclear weapons I’d rate it as a higher threat than Russia. Also, due to its geography, Iran can do serious damage to critical sea navigation routes that supply the oil relied upon by the entire world economy.

      Russia can still be considered a reasonably rational foe. Iran is a theocratic islamic extremist cult. They are less concerned about their own prosperity and more concerned about hurting their enemies. That makes them less predictable and more dangerous.

      • And Israel (with or without US?) can handle it. Why do WE need to get involved?

        If we had the numbers we did 25-30 years ago, fine. But right now we’re stretched thin as it is; what exactly are we going to do? A token force of maybe 4 Typhoons or F-35s? A battalion or two of troops? A destroyer or frigate?

        I don’t think Israel really needs us to handle Iran. At most to help shoot down some missiles and drones as we did last year during a mass strike, but even then their GBAD is likely sufficient to protect against it.

        • I’m not saying they can’t handle it. But we should be ready to intervene if necessary, for example if Iran strikes out by trying to close the Hormuz strait.

          We do have a CSG in the Indian Ocean with up to 24 F35B on board, plus an Astute with Tomahawk.

          Also, Iran are actively supplying Russia with weapons and more, actively working against the UK and Europe’s interests in Ukraine.

      • Not sure on that, when isreal attacked Iran a few months ago Iran moved to de-escalate things. They launched missiles at Israel after telling them they were coming and aimed into their anti air web. Israel are however not in the slighest trying to di-esclate.

        don’t get my wrong Iran government is a major world problem but two wrongs don’t make a right.

    • Unless Russia attacks us directly with nuclear missiles or drops a Nuclear bomb somewhere on Europe what threat is it to the UK exactly? In a conventional military sense its exactly zero. It has no capability to break through Ukraine (conventionally) even if it did in 2 to 3 years it would hit a brick wall of Poland and not go any further.

      Russia is beyond weak right now, its army is in bits, its equipment is depleted and would take a minimum of 5 years to recover if it stopped fighting Ukraine to build up to anything close to what it was before the invasion.

  12. Israel’s ideologically homogenous and motivated population shows how a country highly deficient in natural resources can achieve economic prosperity, a high standard of welfare and a robust military establishment that is capable of carrying out offensive defence. Where the hell did we go wrong?

    • Although, to be fair, Israel doesn’t have aircraft carriers or nuclear-powered submarines, nor the need for a large surface fleet. We have all three.

      Israel has no need of power projection far beyond its own borders. It’s never going to put troops into Iran, besides perhaps special forces.

    • They’re the last Western colony, for better or worse. Their people are highly intelligent, capable and believe in their national project. They are surrounded by enemies and have to be competent otherwise they will be destroyed. They also keep troublesome Palestinians locked away in reservations like helots, and they don’t care as much as we do about post-1945 military ethics. Whether this is justified is the subject of endless debate.

      I don’t think we can emulate them – they’re too far removed from 21st century European liberalism – but their competence certainly puts every other nation to shame.

      • We are in WW3. The world’s population is too big and resources are too few so there are bound to be winners and losers. I’d prefer me and mine to be on the winning side, if its also the ‘good’ side then thats a bonus.

  13. About time someone had the courage to do it.
    I just hope Israel did enough to neutralize Iran’s nuclear program for the forseable future. Although initial images don’t appear to show the underground sites are neutralized.
    I guess we will have to wait for updates, fingers crossed

  14. Putting Politics, consequences and bias aside, IDF has schooled a lot of military commanders on offensive operations. Prepositioning munitions and even commandos on the ground in a hostile environment, keeping them concealed for months. Detailed planning, coordination and execution will be studied by many. Like I say putting bias aside a very impressive military and intelligence operation.

  15. I think we can all agree Iran’s government is not aligned with western values or peace but I have to admit in this case I support Iran. Israel has gone far far too far recently and feels like they are trying to cause ww3.

    • By stopping a country which has continuously threatened to wipe them off the map from obtaining nuclear weapons? Regardless of the fallout, surely any government would need to act in those circumstances.

          • Have you not listened ever to their government, they are constantly saying they want to end the Iranian regime, which can only be done by doing so. Nether side is the good one in this but there is a clear side that started it.

  16. The received diplomatic wisdom outside Israel is the two state solution; a Palestinian state. Israel will not accept this and is intent on occupying the West Bank and Gaza. I do wonder if a way to square the circle is to consider a federated Palestine similar to the way devolution works in the UK: a 3 nation – single state solution in which a devolved Palestinian region and culture has its own parliament, legal system, education system etc but the outside world sees a single nation state civil authority when it comes to currency, defence, issuing passports, foreign policy etc. Just. thought

    • That’s kind of the way its supposed to be working now. But the Palestinians (Gazans) voted in Hamas in 2006, have refused to have elections since, and have squandered and misused aid funding on weapons, tunnels etc.

      It kind of works like that in the West Bank though, as far as I understand.

  17. Go Israel.
    I’m in full support.
    Israel are sons of bitches. They have to be, they’ve been persecuted throughout history.
    They’re no threat to the west, or the UK.
    Iran is.
    Bad enough Iran with nukes. Worse if they’re given to other extremist groups.
    Good job Israel.

    • They have been persecuted yes but thats no justification for them to do to others as to what was done to them 80 years ago.

      Would have been much better for US to do this, Israel doing it is just going to incite further religious hatred in the region and potentially create a much wider war.

      • “ Israel doing it is just going to incite further religious hatred in the region and potentially create a much wider war.”

        Yea… nothing to do with an extremist religious regime )continuously threatening to wipe them off the map) being on verge of having viable nukes. Israel just want to whip up religious hatred. Just out of interest, why would they do that? How would it serve their national interest in any way?

      • Sorry I read your comment incorrectly. I thought you were suggesting that Israel were doing it for the purpose of whipping up religious hatred. Having re read this I can see that’s not what you were saying.

        Agree, American led would have been better. It’s politically toxic though. Western populations are too naive to the threat. Any action would have been deemed as war mongering.

        • Either which way its technically war mongering just would have been better if the US has done it, I think the US population is distracted enough already they could have easily launched a small quick strike as an initial warning on the nuclear facilities/production to force Iran to sign the agreement.

          Israel have clearly decided they arent going to sign and dragging it out and gone in, it might back fire as Iran may not topple and they will go all out to get a bomb if they get through this which is what no one wants.

          • I would only call it war mongering if there were other viable options. From Israel’s perspective there isn’t.

            I think Israel has now shown it has the ability to strike at will at Iranian nuclear facilities. And it has eliminated many of of the top scientists involved. So unless Iran manages to build some extremely hidden and impregnable nuclear facility, I don’t see that happening now. If Israel got a whiff of that they’d undoubtedly use special forces on the ground. For it to be sufficiently secret it would need to be lightly defended.

            My worries would be…
            Could Iran offshore its nuclear development, out of reach of Israel?
            Would Russia or China provide nuclear assistance?
            Would Pakistan provide nuclear assistance?
            Could the fragile state of Pakistan’s political and military institutions result in the ‘loss’ of nuclear assets, possibly to Iran affiliated groups?

  18. While Netanyahu is hardly going to win steersman of the year, I don’t have a problem with Israeli blasting Iran back into the 14th century; it seems to be what most Jawas prey for anyway. I’m far more interested in the fact that the IAF’s F-15C&Ds were carrying an AIM-7M on the forward starboard fuselage station. I didn’t think anyone was still using Sparrows . . . . though when you are at best fighting 1977 trim F-14s and Mig-21s, why waste an D Amraam?

    • I assume therefore you have no issues with the petrol prices going through the roof and a lot of other goods or the massive surge of immigration we are going to have as a result of this then.

      War is never the right solution. It’s a solution of last resort and in this case Israel is the aggressor, it strikes first and not acting to defend itself.

      • it is preemptively acting to defend itself, because it is not possible to defend itself once Iran has viable nukes.

        Many have been expecting Israel to do this for years, but they have given Iran and others time to reach a political solution – that has failed. The IAEA report a couple of days ago is clear evidence of that. They were enriching Uranium way beyond the limits they agreed to, which has no legitimate justification, and were close to weapons grade level.

        • Isreal has attacked Iran on multiple occasions, this isn’t a victim striking first this is a regional bully doing it.

          All they are going to adding further motivation and justification to Iran getting the project completed to defend itself. Any chance of a peaceful deal to prevent it are now gone.

          Whilst we as a nation have tired to stay out of this, I suspect we will feel the impact. To me it’s nonsense that Israel is defending itself, that justification went out of the window when they massively went too far against Palestine

          • How do you propose they defend themselves? A strongly worded letter, read aloud at the UN? Urban warfare is nasty and there is no way around that. Compared to what we did (justifiably) to Germany and Japan in WW2, they have been soft on Palestine.

            You can argue that Israel is a regional bully but so is Iran.

            Given Iran’s recent aggression towards us, I would be happy to see the UK take part in the strikes as long as the goals are sensible and there is no silly attempt at regime change.

          • It has gone well well past a defensive action. And don’t forget Israel illegally occupies large parts of the region. These wars arejt about right /wrong they are about occupation and power, trying to wipe out the other side.

          • In the German case, it is open to debate whether bombing civilian targets was the right decision. However the UK was losing the war and it was massively out numbered and so it was a decision of desperation. Isreal massively out numbers and outguns humas, their decision is purely one of not caring who they kill as long as they achieve their goal. They could be more careful and do it slower but they choose not to. Same with blocking aid deliveries.

          • Israel takes limited action against its enemies because its very existence would be at risk if it didn’t. The strike against Iraqi nuclear facilities in 1981, against Syrian nuclear facilities in 2006, and now Iran in 2025. It the only Jewish country in the world, the only state for a people who were subject the worst genocide in human history, and who are demonised by a large portion of the followers of the second (soon to be first) largest religion in the world, with violent attacks on them common throughout the world. Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas etc; openly state they want to eliminate Israel, which is a lot more than ‘regime change’.

            I don’t believe any of the stats from the Hamas run health ministry (neither should you) that we are quoted on an almost daily basis by the mainstream news outlets. I’m sure many innocent Palestinians have been killed however, and that is of course awful, but Israel cannot be held responsible for Hamas’ tactics of using human shields by placing rocket launchers in school playgrounds, or building tunnels under hospitals. If you are looking for war crimes then look no further than the ample video footage of what happened on October 7th, which Hamas carried out, with backing from Iran and Iran’s proxy Hezbollah.

            Israel is the most progressive country in the middle east, by a long shot. We withold our support for them at our own loss.

        • Stability and jobs. Let’s face it Saudi is not a friendly place to live. Hacking apart a journalist showed that

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