A new report warns that Russia’s air campaign against Ukraine showed no sign of easing in November, despite marginal improvements in interception rates, with sustained pressure on energy infrastructure, cities and civilians continuing to define the conflict.
The latest edition of the Ukraine Air War Monitor, published by Kyiv Dialogue, describes the situation as “extremely critical” as Russia combines mass drone use with cruise and ballistic missile strikes. According to the analysis, Ukraine has now lost around 70 percent of its electricity generation capacity since 2022, with renewed, targeted attacks in November once again triggering widespread power outages and placing heating networks under strain as winter sets in.
The report documents a continued rise in Russian long range drone use. In November alone, Russia deployed 5,444 long range drones, an increase of three percent compared with October. Cruise missile launches fell to 108, while 106 ballistic missiles were used. In seven separate nights, more than 400 drone attacks were recorded, with a single strike on 29 November involving 596 drones, underlining the scale and persistence of the campaign.
Researchers also highlight evidence of ongoing Russian adaptation. For the first time, investigators found an R-60 air to air missile integrated into a downed Shahed drone, suggesting experimentation with new engagement profiles. New Iranian supplied variants, including the Shahed-107, are assessed as expanding both reconnaissance and strike options available to Russian forces.
On the Ukrainian side, the report notes meaningful technological progress in air defence, particularly in the field of interceptor drones. Ukraine has begun serial production of the Octopus interceptor drone and is deploying the Sting drone against Russian Geran-3 systems. France is also supplying a multilayered defence concept based on FPV drones. However, the authors stress that these advances do not remove Ukraine’s dependence on Western support, especially for Patriot air defence systems, interceptor missiles, ammunition and electronic warfare equipment.
The study places particular emphasis on the growing importance of deep precision strike capability heading into 2026. It argues that disrupting Russia’s strike logistics and production chains will require Ukraine to hit military targets inside Russia with greater accuracy and effect. Indigenous systems such as Flamingo, Long Neptune and Sapsan have so far lacked sufficient payload to fill that role at scale. As a result, the report warns that continued deliveries of Western long range systems, including Storm Shadow or SCALP-EG, ATACMS and Taurus, remain essential to avoid a capability gap that could weaken Ukraine’s military position and its leverage in future negotiations.
The Ukraine Air War Monitor draws on a database of more than 70,000 documented Russian air strikes on civilian targets since autumn 2022. Its authors say the aim is to provide data driven recommendations to improve Western support for the protection of Ukrainian cities and to strengthen wider European security.
When the war ends and the dust settles, the west is going to have a lot to learn from the war. Western nations are totally unprepared for the era of saturation drone attacks. The constant focus on the high end all the bells systems needs to change.
It was interesting comparing the drone camera from the US survalliance drone that took the oil tanker Vs the videos that Ukraine publishes daily. It’s clear the US tech is outdated, probably because of the effective monopoly defense companies have and lack of need to innovate
I think a lot of people are in for a very rude awakening by the end of 2026. Reality has been a glaringly absent factor for many of the key personalities responsible for the current state of this mess.
I would add “key personalities responsible for… this mess…and their failure to defend the United Kingdom”.