Russian threat to UK is growing, warns defence chief

Russia poses a worsening and increasingly complex threat to the UK and NATO, requiring a whole-of-society response rather than reliance on the armed forces alone, according to the Chief of the Defence Staff.

Speaking at the Royal United Services Institute in London, Air Chief Marshal Sir Richard Knighton said the UK faces a more dangerous security environment than at any point in his career, with risks driven in particular by Russia’s growing military capability and hostile activity, according to the Ministry of Defence.

Sir Richard argued that while NATO deterrence has so far held, the overall trajectory of risk is moving in the wrong direction. “I will argue that the situation is more dangerous than I have known during my career and the price of peace is rising,” he said, adding that “the trend, from Russia in particular, is worsening, and that is the key argument for action.”

He pointed to a combination of hard military power and persistent hostile activity short of war. “Every day… the UK is subject to an onslaught of cyber-attacks from Russia and we know that Russian agents are seeking to conduct sabotage and have killed on our shores,” he said, referencing recent concern over Russian activity targeting undersea infrastructure.

According to Sir Richard, Russia’s armed forces have undergone significant reform and expansion over the past two decades. He said they are now “more than 1.1 million strong”, consuming “more than seven per cent of GDP, and around 40 per cent of government spending”, with a military that is increasingly combat-experienced as a result of the war in Ukraine.

While he described Russia’s campaign in Ukraine as a strategic failure so far, Sir Richard cautioned against complacency. “We should be under no illusions that Russia has a massive, increasingly technically sophisticated, and now, highly combat-experienced, military,” he said, citing advances in drones and the development of “new and destabilising weapons systems such as nuclear-armed torpedoes and nuclear-powered cruise missiles.”

On intent, he said Moscow’s leadership has been explicit. Quoting former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev, Sir Richard noted ambitions for “the disappearance of Ukraine and the disappearance of NATO – preferably both.” He warned that although the threat may feel less immediate in the UK than in eastern Europe, “the risk to NATO and to the UK from Russia is growing.”

Sir Richard said the response must extend beyond increasing defence spending and military capability. “Our response needs to go beyond simply strengthening our armed forces,” he told the audience. “It needs a whole of nation response that builds our defence industrial capacity… and ensures and increases the resilience of society and the infrastructure that supports it.”

He argued that deterrence depends not only on military strength but on national resilience, warning that failure would affect “the infrastructure and economy that underpins our broader national life.” As a result, he said defence must become “the central organising principle of government” and increasingly of society itself.

Concluding, Sir Richard said the UK must avoid war but accept rising costs to maintain peace. “While the price of peace may be rising, the cost of strong deterrence is still far, far less than the cost of war,” he said, urging a national conversation on defence and security as “the whole of Britain must step up.”