RAF Lossiemouth could be a prime target for Russian sabotage in a future confrontation with NATO, defence experts told MPs during a Defence Committee hearing on security in the High North.
Giving evidence to the committee, Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), warned that non-kinetic attacks on critical military infrastructure could offer Moscow a relatively simple way to degrade NATO capabilities.
Arnold told MPs that sabotage would likely be easier for Russia than a direct military strike. “I would assess the main threat to Lossiemouth as sabotage, because that is the easiest way for the Russians to achieve their aims,” he said.
Arnold explained that Moscow would not necessarily need to destroy aircraft outright to achieve a meaningful operational impact. “They do not have to destroy every P-8 maritime patrol aircraft; they just need to damage them to a point that they are inoperable,” he told MPs.
RAF Lossiemouth is home to the RAF’s fleet of Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which form a central part of NATO anti-submarine warfare operations across the North Atlantic and High North. Arnold warned that disabling even a portion of those aircraft could significantly weaken allied maritime surveillance and anti-submarine capabilities. “They would then be taking out quite a large portion of NATO maritime patrol capability,” he said.
He pointed to recent protest activity targeting military aircraft in the UK as an illustration of how relatively simple actions could render operational platforms unusable. “Look at what happened with Brize Norton and Palestine Action: it was some paint and some engines, which then made those frames inoperable,” Arnold said, adding that a similar form of sabotage could have strategic consequences. “Something similar, on that level—not a kinetic strike—could take out a large portion, and it would give freedom of manoeuvre for Russian submarines.”
The comments came during an inquiry examining defence in the High North, where NATO faces growing military activity from Russia and increasing strategic interest from China. Other witnesses told MPs that Russia’s submarine fleet operating from the Kola Peninsula remains one of the most significant threats to the United Kingdom and NATO sea lines of communication.
Dr Marc De Vore, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of St Andrews, said Russia’s naval posture in the region was closely linked to its ability to project power into the North Atlantic. “When we speak about the Russian threat, much of that is localised in the Kola peninsula,” he told the committee.
De Vore added that vessels such as the Russian intelligence ship Yantar and specialised submarine platforms designed for operations against undersea infrastructure had already been operating in the North Atlantic.
The hearing forms part of the Defence Committee’s new inquiry into security in the Arctic and High North, a region increasingly shaped by Russian military activity, melting sea ice opening new shipping routes, and growing geopolitical competition.
Pretty obvious that on the outset of hostilities the very first thing would be a mass drone attack on multiply facilities, all launched from very close to the bases. I’d be surprised if drones aren’t here already in storage. Exactly the same gig as Ukraine used against Russian bomber bases so effectively. Would be very easy to disable the entire P8 force as a oner.
No shit Sherlock…
Lossimouth has no less than 4 Typhoon Squadrons, 1,2,6, and IX, 2 P8 Squadrons, 120 & 201, the P8/E7 OCU, so 42 Sqn and the E7 Sqn, no 8 Sqn.
Lots all in one place, which these days is the big idea as bases are closed and units concentrated to save money.
“Centre’s of Excellence” the MoD keep calling them.
Utter cobblers.
Previously, those P8s would ideally have been at Kinloss up the road, a big location with plenty of dispersals, which is now an Army Barracks, and 2 of the Typhoon Squadrons further south at Leuchars where they properly belong.
Both these sites still have active runways so there is hope for dispersal here.
Lossimouth itself has two runways, 9091 ft and 6025 ft, by my notes.
Is there ANY pre positioned ADR plant, matting, and so forth, ready for use, as in the Cold War. The Army Regiment that does ADR and Aviation support, 39 RE, is just up the road at Kinloss. If there isn’t, why not?
The P8s are lined up like flipping skittles outside Atlantic Building, as it is more efficient this way, and there are only 2 HAS sites for 4 Squadrons of Typhoon, when there should be one for each.
Defending this lot, there is the HQ and a Flight of No 4 RAF P&SS, with a MWD Section, a MPGS Det, and a RAuxAF Regiment Sqn, No 2622, which I assume is still allocated to defend the station even though the RAF FP Force is more expeditionary orientated these days, like its regular counterpart, No 51 Sqn RAF Regiment, which is also based here.
Could one foresee a merchant ship sailing closer to shore, unleashing a group of Drones straight to the Station, or launched from a truck on one of the surrounding A roads? There are no GBAD at RAF Stations in the UK at all, beyond the RAF Regiment CUAS assets now deployed in Iraq and Cyprus.
In the Cold War, an RAF Regiment Rapier Sqn defended Lossimouth.
If one thinks this unlikely, just WHO was responsible for the Drones sighted repeatedly at USAF bases in Anglia a few years ago? The outcome of which is not known as the authorities clammed up tighter than a ducks arse on the subject. Unless they were UAP.
These vulnerabilities have also been shouted from the rooftops about RAF Akrotiri since time began, and it bit us the other day, luckily without any real damage.
And if you think this is bad, go have a look at most of the RAF RRH locations, they have been automated since the mid 2000s and would be wiped out in short order. A few fences with wire on top won’t stop Drones.
We are vulnerable, in most places, and HMG talk, and talk some more.
Maybe Starmer will blame the CDS like he is rumoured to have done regards Cyprus when the shit hits the fan, if he is still PM by then?
Excellent points Danielle.
Good post – Leuchars has enough HAS for a couple of Squadrons
It does, it has 2 HAS complexes. As does Leeming. Ideally, both should be in use.
About time you started your own site. Seriously.
I assume that was a compliment, Jon. If so, thanks,
but I’d not have a clue where to start, nor have the time or knowledge to run a website.
I prefer to commentate and discuss knowledge with like minded people on sites like this.
👍
Wow. We are lead by such military bright sparks. Who’d have thought an RAF MOB would be a prime Russian target.
give these bright sparks another few months and they’ll come to the conclusion Brize is also pretty critical to our power projection.
But will anything be done about it? – wouldn’t hold your breath as the clowns in charge have their heads in the sand
Along with pretty much every other single base which is critical to our defensive posture and infrastructure!
About time you started your own site.
Bahrain and Saudi Grand Prix look set to be cancelled due to security concerns…
I was all for this war (glad we kept out) until it starts affecting the F1! 🏎️
I used to enjoy F1 back in the Mika Hakkinen, D Hill and Schumacher days.
Since then, not so much. And paying £100 to stand in the mud at Silverstone was too much for me, you could get into Mildenhall Air Fete for a quarter of that.