Ukraine intercepted more than 90 percent of drones launched against the country during March 2026, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence.
The ministry said approximately 6,600 aerial targets were detected during mass attacks throughout the month, a notable increase from the 5,300 recorded in February. Of those, Ukrainian forces reported neutralising 5,935 drones and missiles in total.
Breaking the figures down, the Ukrainian military said 6,463 Shahed-type and other drones were launched, with 5,833 intercepted for a claimed interception rate of 90.25%. For cruise and ballistic missiles, 102 of 138 launches were reportedly intercepted, a rate of nearly 74%. The overall interception effectiveness for the month was put at 89.9%, according to the Ukrainian Air Force’s daily reports.
The highest intensity of drone attacks came on 24 March, when nearly 1,000 drones were launched in a single day, described by the ministry as the largest such attack since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Ukraine claimed 94.6% of aerial targets were neutralised or forced down during that attack.
The largest missile strike of the month occurred on 14 March, when 68 missiles were launched alongside 430 drones. Ukrainian forces said they intercepted 58 of the missiles and over 400 of the drones.
The Ukrainian MoD noted that the country’s War Plan sets a goal of identifying 100% of aerial threats in real time and intercepting at least 95% of missiles and drones. It said progress towards this objective has been supported by a combination of aviation, various air defence systems, and electronic warfare capabilities, which allow forces to disrupt drone guidance as well as physically destroy targets.
An interesting article indicating the importance of keeping drone technology effects on battlefield combined arms operations in perspective.
Furthermore, AFVs are not necessarily as vulnerable as might have been thought a couple of years ago.
‘A Leopard 1A5 main battle tank from the 5th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade survived over 50 hits from enemy drones without its armor being penetrated.’
The battle for air superiority goes on…and the side that achieves battlefield air superiority regains the ability to conduct manoeuvre warfare, combined arms operations in attack and defence…
A sensible point: the early problems with armour in UKR were more to do with it not being used in combined arms context. A solo tank is just a target.
Used correctly they have a vital function which is why Challenger III is vital.
Definitely. It is difficult to see how the Government’s advisors could have been more clear about what is required. The deafening silence in response is alarming. But I’m not sure that the country at large is as alarmed as it probably should be…
I don’t think the average punter has any idea how close we are to a catastrophic war ( any peer war even the one you win is catastrophic ).
I don’t think they realise:
1) NATO really is in terrible trouble and the authoritarian nut jobs are looking at it like vultures.
2) Russia has a very very special hatred of the UK and it’s quite normal for the hawk presenters on state TV to suggest taking our perfidious Albion preferably with nuclear weapons. And all in all it want the UK humiliated and neutralised.
3) China is eyeing up the USN for a casket if it comes to a shooting war with the west over Taiwan.
4) The profound level of gray warfare undertaken by Russia and China and what that actually means ( I still have problems understand how Russia got away with dumping enough nerve agent in a UK city to kill thousands without an article 5 event of some kind.. this hatred of the UK was there to see).
And most of all I don’t think they understand how open the country is to attack and that we have literally zero civil defence resilience in place to allow us to withstand war.
Quite so. It’s all a bit 1914 except that we forgot to buy the Dreadnoughts.
I would agree, indeed I think we are likely to soon find that propeller powered drones go the way of propeller powered aircraft. Suddenly if your $20,000 propeller powered Shahed drone can be intercepted by a $2,000 sting drone then the math is no longer in your favour. This forces the aggressor to move back to expensive rockets and jets to use speed for survivability.
Ukraine is likely to become a future arsenal of democracy knocking these things out in the millions allowing Europe, Taiwan, South Korea Japan and the Gulf to cheaply build a drone wall.
The problem Jim is that one interceptor vs one strategic drone is not the equation..
It’s this
The risk of 1 strategic drone getting through to any of your key strategic infrastructure is huge.. put a drone in any one of 300 hospitals and the cost is astronomical, hit a power sub station in an industrial area it’s astronomical.. transport hub the same..
That means you have to have those interceptor drones at every possible target it’s worth spending 20k to blow up….that’s thousands of targets that need coverage. Even then you don’t need to succeed.. just sending a town full of people into shelter has a huge economic cost…
Then if you dovhave a 10% hit rate and just one out of 10 20k drones hits a hospital or factory and causes 500k of damage or disruption your all good…
Yes but this was about strategic strikes not the drums saturated battlefield.. two completely different domains. I would take great care using any learned from this strategic battle into the tactical battle space.. Russia deployed about 35,000 tactical drones and we are given no information on intercept rates and targets..
All we really have is the casualties rates from battlefield drones which are huge and the fact post hedgehog 2025 the consensus was for massive changes in combined arms doctrine of European armies to focus on the drone saturated battlefield .. infact the most eloquent learning statement from Ukraine showing what drones do was the senior officer summary of “ we are fucked”.
But we are not ‘fecked’ if our 1970s Leopard 1, suitably modified, can survive over 50 hits from enemy drones without its armour being penetrated.
Ukraine is intercepting drones across the piece at all different levels.
‘Russian drone operators in early April, for the first time, encountered Ukrainian First Person View (FPV) quadcopter aircraft fitted with a conventional wing, giving the drone extended range and loitering capacity. Lower-level operators probably came up with the upgrade to create a more effective interceptor drone…’ 09 Apr 2026
‘…there’s a theory that they’re controlled not by human operators, but by AI. If they’re dropped by a Starlink-powered relay wing, their range is very long. They’re very fast (they’re winged), and you can’t escape at any speed,” reported Russian war correspondent Sergey Kolyasnikov’ 06 Apr 2026
This is a classic air superiority battle which, as in 1916-18 and 1940-44, has swung back and forth.
Once battlefield air superiority is achieved, manoeuvre warfare is once more enabled.
The problem Monro is how do you keep that close air superiority while your moving.. yes you get local close air superiority.. then you manoeuvre straight into an area you don’t have local air superiority.. that manoeuvre collapses.. Ukrainians only manoeuvre in very small very dispersed units using extreme stealth after very significant hyper recce. They do not do battle group level combined arms.. because that gets you chopped up.. that was why the senior officer stated “ we are fucked” .
It is an air superiority battle.
Ukraine has not yet won that battle.
Manoeuvre formations can pretty much only operate effectively once they have established air superiority.
But that has always been the case…
Save yourself, @Jonathan has drone religion. Can’t argue against that 🙁
Bless is that cognitive biases hitting you again.. we are having what’s called a discussion we are allowed to disagree, infact both myself and monro actually like to disagree and express our arguments.. and we don’t call each other idiot or names we just disagree and have different views.
Huh? You been drinking again?
Bless you
That true, but it’s the numbers and at the moment nobody really has the ability to counter the numbers issue..
Air superiority was always a game of balance of numbers and attrition.. when your enemy is throwing away 40,000 drone a month into the battlespace it becomes a problem of attrition if your air defences are designed to destroy hundreds of targets, and that is the issue.. I completely agree if we can field a nato army that can safely destroy 40,000 drones a month then that part of the equation is solved.. but how do we come close to that.. that I think was why NATO commanders sat there making “ohh shit noises “ because until that’s solved it’s a huge problem.
It is a very interesting discussion.
‘From April 2026, Ukraine has transformed into a major global drone power, with production capabilities reaching roughly 4 million drones per year.’
We also just sent Ukraine 120,000 drones.
Britain’s industry was an important part of victory in both world wars. The industrial might of the U.S. was decisive in WW2.
Manoeuvre operations are really fire and manoeuvre operations. Manoeuvre beyond the ‘grey zone’ will require all the usual combined arms with GBAD/counterdrone operators well forward, together with close air support including offensive drone operations. If manoeuvre formations do not have all those elements cooperating, together with heavy armour and armoured infantry, then, of course, unless poor weather lends itself to the offense, that offensive operation, most likely, will fail; ‘fecked’.
The Ukraine (and Iran) war has clearly demonstrated the threat and what is required to defeat it. For the now clearly seen to be necessary increments to types and numbers of equipment for our own defence forces, I agree. We do seem worryingly disinclined to take much action at all.
Yep the problem is nobody seems to want to invest in the core high end war-fighting capability, the support capabilities and the lower end attritional capabilities that are now needed.. at one end you have the only buy sexy gold plated best ever and at the other let just buy the newest gizmos that are cheap.. nobody is really looking at OK what is the balance of gold plated high end.. vs support infrastructure vs attritional gizmos and stuff ( recce drones, one way attack drones, SHORAD by the bucketful, Stupid amount of munitions etc).. the problem the British armed forces army navy and airforce is that rightly as much as possible the protected the gold plated stuff.. but and culled support and lower end.. now they have so much to rebuild.. at the same time as understanding the new balance ( how much SHORAD do you need again an Ivan that throws a thousand drones a day at your lines. )..added to that a political class refusing to believe.. I think the commander who said “ we are fucked” was probably close to the truth.. unless the treasury, MOD and executive agencies all have a moment of clarity all at the same time.
On that we have complete agreement. I think we can all see a way forward, eloquently expressed in SDR 2025. The worry is the tumbleweed blowing down the corridors of Whitehall, moths fluttering in the pockets of the treasury and nothing but the sound of crickets between the ears of so many in Westminster.
You use drones which are inherently mobile.
Hence controlling drone clouds from vehicles on the move is a research thing ATM.
Even though I don’t believe this high claim of 90% by Ukraine, they should really be kissing the feet of NATO since its largely thanks to anti air contributions by the rest of Europe that they are able to shoot down as many as they have
But you rarely see any real gratitude from Ukrainians online, just constant whining and bitching
Hopefully they will be able to stand on their own two feet one day and we can give all that gear to our own military
You sound like a Putinbot
No I just learnt to not buy Ukraine’s bullshit unless they can back it up with proof.
I treat them the same as I treat the Russians in that respect
Maybe you should try and be a bit more critical instead of getting so defensive over a combatant in a war thousands of miles away
I’ll try my best 😏
You really ought not call someone a Putinbot just because he states an opinion about Ukrainians, its stupid.
I’ve seen lots of chippy attitudes from Ukrainians up to and including Zelensky himself at times, we can say that and still support Ukraine, things are quite nuanced after all.