RAF Lossiemouth could be a prime target for Russian sabotage in a future confrontation with NATO, defence experts told MPs during a Defence Committee hearing on security in the High North.
Giving evidence to the committee, Ed Arnold, Senior Research Fellow for European Security at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), warned that non-kinetic attacks on critical military infrastructure could offer Moscow a relatively simple way to degrade NATO capabilities.
Arnold told MPs that sabotage would likely be easier for Russia than a direct military strike. “I would assess the main threat to Lossiemouth as sabotage, because that is the easiest way for the Russians to achieve their aims,” he said.
Arnold explained that Moscow would not necessarily need to destroy aircraft outright to achieve a meaningful operational impact. “They do not have to destroy every P-8 maritime patrol aircraft; they just need to damage them to a point that they are inoperable,” he told MPs.
RAF Lossiemouth is home to the RAF’s fleet of Boeing P-8 Poseidon maritime patrol aircraft, which form a central part of NATO anti-submarine warfare operations across the North Atlantic and High North. Arnold warned that disabling even a portion of those aircraft could significantly weaken allied maritime surveillance and anti-submarine capabilities. “They would then be taking out quite a large portion of NATO maritime patrol capability,” he said.
He pointed to recent protest activity targeting military aircraft in the UK as an illustration of how relatively simple actions could render operational platforms unusable. “Look at what happened with Brize Norton and Palestine Action: it was some paint and some engines, which then made those frames inoperable,” Arnold said, adding that a similar form of sabotage could have strategic consequences. “Something similar, on that level—not a kinetic strike—could take out a large portion, and it would give freedom of manoeuvre for Russian submarines.”
The comments came during an inquiry examining defence in the High North, where NATO faces growing military activity from Russia and increasing strategic interest from China. Other witnesses told MPs that Russia’s submarine fleet operating from the Kola Peninsula remains one of the most significant threats to the United Kingdom and NATO sea lines of communication.
Dr Marc De Vore, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at the University of St Andrews, said Russia’s naval posture in the region was closely linked to its ability to project power into the North Atlantic. “When we speak about the Russian threat, much of that is localised in the Kola peninsula,” he told the committee.
De Vore added that vessels such as the Russian intelligence ship Yantar and specialised submarine platforms designed for operations against undersea infrastructure had already been operating in the North Atlantic.
The hearing forms part of the Defence Committee’s new inquiry into security in the Arctic and High North, a region increasingly shaped by Russian military activity, melting sea ice opening new shipping routes, and growing geopolitical competition.
Pretty obvious that on the outset of hostilities the very first thing would be a mass drone attack on multiply facilities, all launched from very close to the bases. I’d be surprised if drones aren’t here already in storage. Exactly the same gig as Ukraine used against Russian bomber bases so effectively. Would be very easy to disable the entire P8 force as a oner.
the threshold is so low to be able to buy some drones from a shop and fly them into high end aircraft. the threat is effectively constant from within the uk mainland apart from elsewhere
Very true. Its ridiculously easy to cause damage
No shit Sherlock…
Lossimouth has no less than 4 Typhoon Squadrons, 1,2,6, and IX, 2 P8 Squadrons, 120 & 201, the P8/E7 OCU, so 42 Sqn and the E7 Sqn, no 8 Sqn.
Lots all in one place, which these days is the big idea as bases are closed and units concentrated to save money.
“Centre’s of Excellence” the MoD keep calling them.
Utter cobblers.
Previously, those P8s would ideally have been at Kinloss up the road, a big location with plenty of dispersals, which is now an Army Barracks, and 2 of the Typhoon Squadrons further south at Leuchars where they properly belong.
Both these sites still have active runways so there is hope for dispersal here.
Lossimouth itself has two runways, 9091 ft and 6025 ft, by my notes.
Is there ANY pre positioned ADR plant, matting, and so forth, ready for use, as in the Cold War. The Army Regiment that does ADR and Aviation support, 39 RE, is just up the road at Kinloss. If there isn’t, why not?
The P8s are lined up like flipping skittles outside Atlantic Building, as it is more efficient this way, and there are only 2 HAS sites for 4 Squadrons of Typhoon, when there should be one for each.
Defending this lot, there is the HQ and a Flight of No 4 RAF P&SS, with a MWD Section, a MPGS Det, and a RAuxAF Regiment Sqn, No 2622, which I assume is still allocated to defend the station even though the RAF FP Force is more expeditionary orientated these days, like its regular counterpart, No 51 Sqn RAF Regiment, which is also based here.
Could one foresee a merchant ship sailing closer to shore, unleashing a group of Drones straight to the Station, or launched from a truck on one of the surrounding A roads? There are no GBAD at RAF Stations in the UK at all, beyond the RAF Regiment CUAS assets now deployed in Iraq and Cyprus.
In the Cold War, an RAF Regiment Rapier Sqn defended Lossimouth.
If one thinks this unlikely, just WHO was responsible for the Drones sighted repeatedly at USAF bases in Anglia a few years ago? The outcome of which is not known as the authorities clammed up tighter than a ducks arse on the subject. Unless they were UAP.
These vulnerabilities have also been shouted from the rooftops about RAF Akrotiri since time began, and it bit us the other day, luckily without any real damage.
And if you think this is bad, go have a look at most of the RAF RRH locations, they have been automated since the mid 2000s and would be wiped out in short order. A few fences with wire on top won’t stop Drones.
We are vulnerable, in most places, and HMG talk, and talk some more.
Maybe Starmer will blame the CDS like he is rumoured to have done regards Cyprus when the shit hits the fan, if he is still PM by then?
Excellent points Danielle.
Good post – Leuchars has enough HAS for a couple of Squadrons
It does, it has 2 HAS complexes. As does Leeming. Ideally, both should be in use.
About time you started your own site. Seriously.
I assume that was a compliment, Jon. If so, thanks,
but I’d not have a clue where to start, nor have the time or knowledge to run a website.
I prefer to commentate and discuss knowledge with like minded people on sites like this.
You and Jonathan could do it, I think. Your analysis of where we are vs his analysis of where we could go match together well.
J, one I would follow and vote for if he went into politics. He just makes so much common sense and balance to me.
Yes it was meant as a compliment. I honestly cannot thing of a more informed commentator. Don’t waste your expertise
Thank you Jon. Regards.
👍
Yep all very good points.. in the end consolidation is cheaper but in an actual peer war dispersal is the only way to survive…
It’s one of the reasons the carriers are so very important for our defence and not just some expensive expeditionary asset….essentially 3 squadrons of F 35bs and a squadron or 2 of Merlin’s running around in the North Atlantic and northern seas is the ultimate dispersal of some key assets..
Excellent take. Very accurate. Kinloss and Leuchars shpuld be reactivated as a minimum and all bases well defended.
Wow. We are lead by such military bright sparks. Who’d have thought an RAF MOB would be a prime Russian target.
give these bright sparks another few months and they’ll come to the conclusion Brize is also pretty critical to our power projection.
But will anything be done about it? – wouldn’t hold your breath as the clowns in charge have their heads in the sand
Along with pretty much every other single base which is critical to our defensive posture and infrastructure!
It should now be stated that any unauthorised entry and, explicitly, close to national defensive assets will be met with deadly force.
Barry – you can’t use deadly force, the pearl clutchers and lefties in the Govt wouldn’t like it. Seriously, though, nuclear sites in the UK are currently guarded by armed MOD Police, so whatever legislation covers them should be extended to all military sites, such as Lossie, Coningsby, etc. The RAF Regt should be brought back to their original role – guarding airfields and other sensitive sites.
About time you started your own site.
Bahrain and Saudi Grand Prix look set to be cancelled due to security concerns…
I was all for this war (glad we kept out) until it starts affecting the F1! 🏎️
I used to enjoy F1 back in the Mika Hakkinen, D Hill and Schumacher days.
Since then, not so much. And paying £100 to stand in the mud at Silverstone was too much for me, you could get into Mildenhall Air Fete for a quarter of that.
True, I miss the Hakkinen-Schumacher days. The racing hasn’t been great recently, but the new regs should make things exciting again, if last weekend is anything to go by.
I also enjoyed those F1 days, good aggressive racing. With this last rule and driveline change it feels more like accounting than pushing the performance edge.
Strangely like the current military strategy.
Off topic I know but Damon Hill’s 1996 FW18 has to be one of the best looking F1 cars of all time! Boy do I miss the sound of the V10s!!!
Ok – ehemm, back to defence talk :-).
Vigourous security patrolling of the perimeters, flight lines and facilities of all RAF, RN and Army bases is a must, and readiness to use deadly force against infiltrators/saboteurs is a must as well. The Palestine Action attack was a clue as to present inadequacies. The UK has to get ready for “sooner, rather than later.”
I should read down the thread. I agree. Trespassers will be shot on detection.
Wow….just wow! Are we not so lucky to have such eminent thinkers pointing out “THE TOTAL BLEEDING OBVIOUS”?
bases highly vulnerable in general. understand ukraine has microphone network listening and detecting direction of drones.
HMG will just sit on this like everything Else no doubt 😴
The defence of our airbases is worse than dire, it is virtually non-existant. Just like defence of our critical.national infrastructure and defence manufacturing sites. It has been given zero priority for years, and worse: political pressure, via the Treasury, to produce savings has led to the mothballing, repurposing or sale of airbases, halving of the RAF Regt and non-replacement of their Rapier SAMS. Obvious result is the five remaining main operating bases being rammed with aircraft and devoid of HAS, air defences and base security troops.
Brize is an example of where that short-termism gets you. MOD sells off Lyneham to produce ‘savings’, so we now have our full air transport fleet, all 44 aircraft, crammed into Brize. Short of HAS, no air defence, one RAF regt squadron. One wave of ballistic missiles would wipe out most of our air transport fleet. A few drone strikes or a couple of RPGs fired through the flimsy perimeter fence would do a good bit of damage.
I used to marvel driving past then-RAF Leuchars.at how close the rank of Phantom F4s were to the road, you could hit them with a coke can if you were so minded, and never an RAF Regt guy in sight
Ditto Lossiemouth and Kinloss.
There is a very large rebuilding and reconstituting job to be done here. LLAD/C-UAV point air defence, maybe Sky Sabre local area defence. Dispersal across more airfields. At least doubling the number of RAF Regt sqns, and probably more: the RAUXAF sqns are essential to increase numbers in wartime, but they need the kut and the training to do air defence, wide-area patrolling, close-in defence. Double perimeter fences, pushed as far away from the airfield as possible, even if that means compulsory purchase of land, rerouting stretches of road, etc.
Basically, a major and serious practical and financial effort. Where is the money to come from? Well, we have this so-far nominal 1.5% of GDP to be allocated to infrastructure and I imagine civil resilience/defence. The problem is this doesn’t exist so far and nothing HMG has said suggests that the MOD is going to start showing a split in the defence budget between the 3.5% core and the 1.5% other things. I suspect.we won’t see that for years, if ever, because it would reduce core spending considerably.
It would be enlightening – or probably not, as MOD answers go, to ask the Ministers in Parliament when they anticipate this 1.5% commencing and what is the timetable for reaching the target. I imagine it would get a wuffly evasive non-answer. But until that money comes on tap, I can’t see.any action.being taken to improve base defence, because it would have to be at the expense of key equipment on order or planned.
Basically we’re realising that round the clock radar and close defence is needed… Bofors would make a mess of any quadcopter and with the right tracking, could cause the detonation of the warheads. I reckon a combo of that and just building some hangars could fend off an first strike on grounded planes.