‘News Snapshots’ is the new fortnightly news podcast from The OSINT Bunker team.
The panel discuss the latest developments in the Ukraine-Russia conflict, ongoing tensions in the South China Sea involving China, Taiwan and US forces & China’s new aircraft carrier Fujian.
The panel features @DefenceGeek & @osinttechnical.
The OSINT Bunker Podcast team, renowned for their in-depth analysis of international affairs, has launched a new series, the ‘News Snapshots’ podcast.
This latest endeavour offers listeners a concise yet thorough overview of current global events, coupled with expert commentary and insights.
The podcast also delves into regional conflicts and shifting geopolitical dynamics, underscoring the OSINT Bunker team’s commitment to offering a holistic view of global events. ‘News Snapshots Podcast’ promises to be an invaluable resource for those seeking a quick yet comprehensive update on world affairs.
This new series is sponsored by the UK Defence Journal.
Look. No aircraft!
Just a big target.
White elephant.
What is good for the goose is good for the gander.
Should be nuclear powered …
Good one I missed.
Until you have an actual war & several nuke powered warships lay in bits on the seabed, making all seafood toxic.
Think you missed the sarcasm there Frank 😉
Bad man😱
But they at least have the aircraft.
Can’t see any there?
We have aircraft too? 35 or so at the mo.
Apparently, they must be lined up on deck at all times, even in the SCXAs, otherwise we’re crap.
Not good enough China, you’ve an empty flight deck there.
Currently, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy Air-force (or what ever it’s called) has just 110 fighter aircraft in active service ( roughly two squadrons of which are training variants) to go around 3 carriers – plus the J-15 has only ever made 1 known catapult launch in its service life. In theory they are incapable of filling all their carriers in the same way were currently are, but you’ll never hear anyone raise that point.
“just 110 fighters” …. well that’s about the entire RAF inventory of Typhoons and F35, give or take a a dozen or so. In total the PLAN/AF have some 2500 combat aircraft. You can bet your life on it that China will equip these ships with sufficient aircraft sometime soon.
I wouldn’t back on them doing that with the Fujian which is of course their only true Blue water carrier, the others have limited operational range and flexibility and can only really operate effectively in home waters which is the whole reason the Fujian was desperately required. I’m sure they will eventually get it sorted but the Chinese lack of carrier operations is another serious handicap that will take time to resolve. It’s no easy task.
Don’t forget that the PLAN-AF has a considerable fleet of Land based ( only ) Fighter/Bomber/Recce Jets too .
In practice they can produce more than 100 J 15 each year 😜
J 20yearly made 150 to 200.u think they can’t achieve US in future? Lol…
Ha, yes there’s no way the world’s second largest economy can afford to equip their carriers with as many planes as the UK!
You know what I meant. China has enough fixed wing aircraft to fully load it’s three carriers whereas UK has so far managed 8 in 7 years. Now I like a bit of sarcasm but I also see the reality of the facts and the facts are, we have two large Aircraft Carriers and no where near the amount of aircraft they were each designed to carry. There is no excuse for this.
They are designed around achieving a particular sortie generation rate, because that is what defines the actual capability of a carrier. If you have more aircraft on board than you need to achieve your optimum rate then they are just ballast.
Absolutely right it’s a sad fact 😞
Yet just look at the deluded replies here….. So far after 7 whole years of the Carriers being in service just 8 F35’s have been embarked….. yet the Regulars here seem to think this is an excellent achievement.. WW2 was over in 5……. I used to love reading all the replies on here but lately, it’s become more of an Arm Chair Ego place and that’s on top of the Racist content so beloved by a few Stalwarts…..
Most of the problem is in the F-35 programme itself, though now that technically acceptable level future proofed airframes are available this year that excuse will not be sustainable much longer. Hope that’s not too racist against the Americans.
That excuse was put to bed years ago. The UK government and MOD are the parties most reasonable for this situation.
Going back to the original idea of having 1 carrier available at all times we have no reason to have 2 flight decks full of aircraft, it was never in the original requirement. Sadly the F35 buy rate has sensibly been slowed due to the US shafting us on block 4 integration which is what it is. Better to wait and buy them capable from the factory as opposed to buying then sending back at greater expense to make them block 4 capable.
Yes its not ideal but its better than doing it the other way around.
But was it actually the Idea or is it just an excuse ???… I think you have to look back at the history of the programme with all the many changes made along the way and if you look back to 1982 you will see that we put to sea two carriers with full loads because we could…. but we certainly can’t now, not even close for one…. and that’s the issue.
There is a big difference between normal peacetime operations and what can be achieved in a national crisis. Like the Falklands. It wasn’t the norm to put every single Sea Harrier and helicopter we posses to sea. But for a crisis we could. And it would be the same today. We could deploy 30+ F35’s tomorrow if we really really needed too. But we don’t. So the normal work up structure remains. But we will operate far more F35’s then we ever had of Sea Harriers. And the capability is the best money can buy. 🇬🇧
Robert, That’s so wrong …. We could not deploy 30+ at all….. Not even in your wildest dreams and certainly not for both….. i often wonder if you even have a clue what you are on about on here to be honest.
Sorry again Robert but you are totally wrong about Sea Harrier numbers in fact you are so wrong, I’m embarrassed for you…. Go take a simple look at Google, let us know how you get on…..
Come on captain. Don’t be a plonker all your life.
Says you…… come on Robert Blay, go take a look at google….. you will see plainly that some 98 Sea Harriers were built…. that figure eclipses the amount of F35’s we have or will probably ever have that you so plainly stated on here……… who’s the plonker again ? Mate, if you don’t actually understand defence related stuff, may I suggest you find another site ? Seriously Bob, try a Knitting site yes ….
Captain. 98?? Seems way too high for me.
How many of those 98 Sea Harriers were FS1 and then FA2s?
By 1978, looking at Google, 34 FRS1 had been ordered.
22 newer build FA2 were added later.
They were not all in service at once, the FS1s were updated to FA2 standard much later post 1990. We had 800,801,809 NAS and latterly, for most of the Sea Harriers time in the FA, 800,801 NAS in front line service.
Mate, Robert Blay served in those Sea Harrier Sqns, so I tend to go with his own experience than Google mate.
I agree with him, if it came to it, and not the peacetime veeeeeery slow build up as we are seeing, more F35 could go to the Carriers. The issue is they will be needed elsewhere too as the Tornado GR4 is gone so may well not.
But they could “if” that was decided that that was the best place for them.
Meantime, we need more, that second tranche order needs signing.
I answered Roberts statement…. 98 is the number built…. You are just trying to belittle me now…. It’s OK though, I fully understand why.
What???? 🙄 mate, not at all. Chill!
Nope…. I see what is written on here and to be honest, I’m not in the frame of mind to Chill at all……. You have no Idea what frame of mind I’m in nor why I am in it…… Fed up with reading and dealing with Idiots to be honest…..
98 were built, and that, presumably, will include those for the Indian Navy.
The subject is RN capability and you and Robert were referencing RN capability.
I’ve questioned that 98 as being all FAA, and that’s belittling you is it?
No mate, just questioning the accuracy of the initial statement.
He’s simply stating facts and fact is we did not have anything like that number available at any given time, certainly not in the Falklands Campaign by the information I have found. If you have strong evidence to the contrary then fine let’s see it, always happy to add to my knowledge.
Belittling you?
Let’s just review your previous posts to Robert Blay…..
1. “Robert, That’s so wrong …. We could not deploy 30+ at all….. Not even in your wildest dreams and certainly not for both….. i often wonder if you even have a clue what you are on about on here to be honest.”
2. “Sorry again Robert but you are totally wrong about Sea Harrier numbers in fact you are so wrong, I’m embarrassed for you…. Go take a simple look at Google, let us know how you get on…..”
3. “Mate, if you don’t actually understand defence related stuff, may I suggest you find another site ? Seriously Bob, try a Knitting site yes ….”
Using the age old adage “if you can’t take it, don’t dish it out.”
You sir, are a school yard bully who when collared by a bigger boy, cries “mental health.”
correct Daniele, A quick glance to a reference books (and wikipedia) indicate 58 were built for the RN. Guess the balance went to India?
Yes mate.
Some of those were the much newerFA2 with AMRAAM and, was it Foxhunter radar? The nose cone was bigger.
Front line Sqns had just 8 I believe.
The issue, as I was saying above, is that the Bs also need to cover the interdiction/Strike role for the RAF.
So we need more than the paltry 48.
We have covered the Sea Harrier capability, it’s the rest that has been lost that the F35s are meant to fill too.
Hi DM, I think some of the original FRS 1were also upgraded to the FA 2 standard.
FoxHunter was the Tornado F.3. Blue Vixen was the Sea Harrier FA2. Damn good radar, purported to outperform the APG/65 and rival the APG/73
Ah! Wrong one. Thanks for the correction.
Some 28 Sea Harriers were active in the Falklands, unless you have evidence to contradict this.
Didnt we have 3 carriers back in 1982? Not that we can really compare 40 years ago equipment to now.
However if we do compare and send 1 wilfully equipped carrier with say 10 F35’s with a helicopter wing comprising various assets along with 3 T45’s and a 4 T23’s plus say 2 Astutes what would the impact be against everything Argentina has? Id say now would be the better outcome to 1982.
We had three carriers back then yes, but the routine compliment of them was about 8 Harriers (if you really packed them in you could manage about 15 but then you’d start loosing your rotary airwing fast).
Well we didn’t actually have enough Sea Harriers did we. Numbers were sorely limited in fact.
Of course you need more than one air group. They rotate through work up, deployment, and rest cycles too. The US has one CAG per active carrier; that being a carrier not in long refit. You can’t tie one carrier wing to two CBG’s.
But its having the crew for the air wing, enough so that pilots snd deck crew can be rotated. No point in having two carriers if there are only personnel for one. The FAA tried to run two carriers with one crew loading in the lste 60s 70s and pilots simply voted to constant duty rotstion with their feet. You need sufficient for rotation and as replacements.
Hence the original idea of having 1 carrier available at all times, not disagreeing we dont have the sustained personnel for 2 to be in full use but that was the entire point.
And you know what I meant.
Yup, I saw exactly what you meant.
Lol yes, so many say our carriers are a waste so there you go. It works both ways.
No not really …. you are trying to justify our lack of capability whilst trying to put me and others down….. well mate, I’m not having it….. You are the Site God but on this, you are totally wrong….. always have been. Sorry to burst your Train Driving Bubble.
I was sarcastically highlighting the oft repeated criticisms of an empty flight deck and reversing it seeing China rob the same.
I’m not putting any one down, I’m offering a different pov which you don’t seem able to cope with.
I’m not a site God.
I don’t drive trains, so no bubbles burst.
Sorry to see you posting like this against me mate as,we go back a long way and have had lots of laughs.
But go ahead, up to you.
I’m out now……. might come back in a few weeks…. might not…. too many stupid comments here now……
👋 See you soon Captain PW.
Daniele, as much as I loathe the lack of up-to-date F35Bs, which is, (God in Heaven keep your lightening strike) NOT the fault of this cr@p Govt, over on Navy Lookout the RFA Outlook is dire.
Without the RFA, the carriers might as well stay tied up alongside.
Morning David.
I know….RFA in bits, MCMV going before the replacements, frigates in a mess. All that is indeed the fault of this government.
Hi Frank, I tend to agree with you about the carriers but it’s bloody LM that’s screwin everyone over that did that, personally I’d love to see us buying 48 typhoon 24 land 24 carriers I know that would cost a fortune but maybe it’s time to really start spending, think it would be pretty cool havin f35 and typhoon on the carrier with drones.
Indeed I have actually forgotten just how far behind schedule this programme is. Even the US F-35s are able to support a surprisingly small range of weapons, shocked me when I saw the rather short list. Some there are as concerned as we. Potential only goes so far.
The points you mentioned is like kidengarden kids.no carrier goes to war without a test period.this carrier just finished 10days ago without having final test for others features.
Read elsewhere to understand why I said what I did, or learn about “sarcasm”
The problem is if they did land on it, assuming the arrestor gear is actually working, they won’t be able to take off again because the EMALS system certainly as yet isn’t. So a crane it is then.
Well from what I have read (though I won’t confirm its veracity) there are grave doubts about the reliability of its EMALS system with certain analyses claiming from the observations of test vehicles launched that they are not yet operating within parameters required to launch actual aircraft safely. Certainly there does seem to be evidence that they are still having real problems its argued by using a layout in its coils that looks good on paper but was rejected by the US as not being reliable enough or failsafe in full scale tests of their own when devising their own EMALS system. The Chinese boasted they had solved the problems in this design choice but as I say there is no evidence as yet that they have confidence in the system. So as things stand they may well have navalised aircraft available but none that can actually operate from this carrier. I doubt the Chinese press is emphasising this however for obvious reasons.
ha ha brilliant – made my day Mate! 😆
Chris. Family all safe in Godalming?
Remember, any dramas, we are local.
Cheers DM, not yet departed, thy leave about 10 June.
It’s going to be interesting to see if their EMALS works. The USN had a lot of trouble developing and integrating the system.
Just because China can build a large carrier doesn’t mean the carrier is any good.
🤞
See my comments above, from what I have read there are very serious questions about the operational capability of that carrier’s EMALS and its ability to sustain the power safely to ensure safe launch of an aircraft. However one does have to be careful taking as read US assessments of problems with the Chinese system. Either way the next 3 to 6 months should certainly give a strong indication as to the veracity of these claims of inherent problems.
“Just because China can build a large carrier doesn’t mean the carrier is any good.”
Fingers crossed eh? We said much the same about the Japanese before they kicked our asses royally for a few years, costing thousands of lives. Thankfully in the far east & south Pacific they’ve been taking the PRC very seriously(apart from disarming NZ) & for all its threats & bluster, it is well matched by its neighbours & the US.
China is obviously going for an evolutionary approach to building Aircraft Carriers, taking small steps at a time, learning what works and what doesn’t, can’t fault them for that.
It’s too easy to ridicule the Chinese and their efforts in building their navy. I remember only a few short decades ago, we used to snigger at anything ‘made in Japan’. Our arrogance will be our downfall.
Indeed, we derided the Japanese before WW2 but got clobbered by them. Look at the Long Lance torpedo that greatly outranged our own & carried a bigger charge or the Zero fighter that whipped all allied planes until later in the war. One thing we know about the Chinese is they’re very innovative in war.
😱
I’m not one to underestimate the Japanese at all we did in a racist manner deride them back then, but early war things were very much in their favour and the Americans naval aircraft were terrible (like our own). The Zero was good but also like Rommel for example greatly overrated too. Once the Hellcat arrived in 43 it far out performed the Zero, indeed even the relative kill ratio of the very average Wildcat was a little better than 1 to 2 against the Zero despite the Japanese greater experience early Pacific Campaign.
Absolutely agree that could occur.
Exactly, eventually the ChiComs will produce a successful carrier. More’s the pity. Then they will produce multiple copies on an expedited schedule. Then the PLAN will be visiting ports near everyone. 🤔😳😱
They’ve built ports in Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Djibouti already, and run Piraeus for Greece.
African West Coast next.
Peru, Venezuela looks likely.
Yes, I think It’s just a matter of time now…… Yet the West and a few on here seem to be living in blissful ignorance…. If the Chinese are spending so much money building so much stuff just to take Taiwan and a few local Island groups then I’m a Irishman……
They make no secret of it, they want full control of the indo Pacific , Taiwan is just the first of the three island chains.
Shouldn’t that be AN Irishman Frank?😉
keep an eye on South Africa too Frank. In particular Simonstown Naval base at Cape Town.
Morning Klonkie! Simonstown indeed! We’ve done a hundred and eighty degree turn in terms of alignment here-cosying up to the BRICS partners!
hey Geoff, hope all is good in Durbs! Best of luck with the upcoming general election – be good to see some positive change (hopefully).
Hey Klonkie. All good here, sunny and 27 degrees at lunchtime whilst the UK Daily Mail is complaining about ‘scorching ‘temperatures at 23 degrees! Not many places to beat a Durban Winter!
The Chinese carrier is a good looking piece of naval hardware!!
Honestly, if they invade Taiwan, then all ports supplying the PLN need to be obliterated as a matter of national security and regardless of what the country they are in thinks.
I am rather surprised on its very first sea trials the negativity because it’s Chinese, even with it not being nuclear, when in service this ship will be lethal just like any other flattop.
And just for a bit of reference she is equipped with 4 x PDMS Launchers (SEARAM a-like) and 4 x CIWS (Goalkeeper a-like) for self defence.
Plus a massive escort force.
Hello Frank…. exactly… at present they are building at an astonishing rate and they are developing some pretty impressive Aircraft too (on paper at least) It’s all too easy to dismiss them like some on here seem to do.
Noted. The new French carrier will also have 4*40mm and SAM, probably Aster. Here’s hoping that the QE carriers will get some upgrade in their own defensive capabilities at least.
Second that 👍
Apparently some nuclear powered versions are also in the works. Let’s not belittle or be complacent.
Even when we have been short of cash in the past we have always prioritised our Navy ! We have fallen so far behind now that it’s becoming a purely local navy instead of Bluewater. You may say look at the carriers but they are truly not good enough and at least one too few and also don’t have enough air defense and logistical back up as well as not having enough aircraft. In the past if we had seen a potential adversary building new ships at the rate that China is doing we would immediately started to build up of our own despite having the two ships we have we should now be building the next generation so at least they will be started rather than having to start from nothing when we do need them.
Its a rusty piece of crap. Its been dogged with development issues (esp. the electromagnetic catapult which uses inferior tech to the US), has had deck cracking, and has limited power for the launch system.
Its bigger problem is that Chinese high performance engines are far less powerful and reliable than western (or Russian) counterparts- meaning the Chinese copies of Russian aircraft are underpowered and can’t carry as much.
I’d be careful about going that far but I would agree on the Chinese jet engines and the probable power output of their version of EMALS.
I wouldn’t be surprised if a ski jump was added……
Where are your sources for these claims.?.
Look on Youtube and see the multitude of videos on the subject. China Observer for example breaks down what this is- an updated Kuznetzov that looks more impressive than it actually is.
No it’s not….. Jeeese fella It’s nothing like the Kuznetzov…. Have you even read the article ?
001 was the Riga/ Varyag (refitted and called Liáoníng), 002 was the Shandong (a local copy) and 003 is an evolution of 002- hence ‘updated’- it still uses propulsion and other aspects of 001 and 002 because the Chinese are reluctant (or lack the experience) to use a nuclear reactor.
So why are you trying to compare the 01 with this 03 ? You stated that Chinese Media breaks it down as an updated Kuznetzov…… that’s your words….. …… I think you haven’t a clue about what this latest Carrier actually is….. Why are there so many clueless posters on here lately ?
Ive watched a few videos,they don’t reveal much beyond the obvious,if your happy that the Fujian is a Kuznetsov rip off then great,you will be the only one thinking so.When 004 is Launched would you think that is another Kuznetsov clone too ?.
Have you seen what they are doing even with Liaoning and Shandong? I think it was from the Shandong that the Japanese reported a very impressive sortie rate during Pacific exercises. 63 sorties a day from the “Kuznetsov copy”. Even if that’s exaggerated by helicopter sorties, it may still be more than any non-US carrier has achieved, including QE and CdG.
Do you really think the larger and far more capable looking Fujian will be magically worse? As their aircraft become more capable through iteration, Fujian will be a real force in the region.
Accept it is experimental. Facts are the Chicoms cannot provide a true escort force as their much vaunted “navy” lacks any real range. If this thing got involved in conflict? Like all under defended carriers it is a sitting duck.
Do they need real range if they’re goal is progressing their territorial claims?
If they want “Blue Water” capability l would say yes. The Indians are interestingly looking at containment of the Chinese. Also the US Marine rerolling is another strand. Aukus ( if it happens ) points to containment too. Reading several sources suggest that too. The Chicom dependence on import of food, raw materials? All point for a need for them to expand naval range. I think the crux really is how long Xi can maintain control, the corruption levels are as bad as anywhere else. Ok, he has cleared house but some observers point to the fact he does not have a “handle” on the realities. Time will tell.
China has a major demographics problem that’s starting to kick in too
True. One child policy. Also all citizen wealth is in property. We know the story of the ghost cities.
Citizens abroad are buying gold as is the government, these us banking sanctions are starting to affect russian trades, gold is the answer
I’m afraid that is profoundly out of date…they have a very large blue water navy with more tonnage of support vessels than the RN.
Blue water combatant wise, they have
8 13,000ton surface action group leaders ( large very modern cruisers)
29ish 7500 ton escorts ( all very new)
17 other 6000-7000 ton destroyers
32 4200 ton ASW frigates ( all modern)
fleet replenishment wise the have
2 modern 48,000 ton fast replenishment vessels
10 25,000 to fleet replenishment vessels
4 15,000 stores ships.
1 37,000 ton replenishment vessel
so that’s around 86 large blue water escorts and around 450,000 tones of fleet replenishment and stores ships…
add in its four 40,000 ton large helicopter landing docks, 8 25,000 ton amphibious vessels….with 10 SSNs ( a bit shite but still SSNs)..
Im not sure anyone can describe PLAN as anything other than a blue water navy .
Thank God…. at last someone actually knows what the Chinese are doing….. I thought I was alone here for a while….. seems like most of the regulars have no Idea whatsoever….. I’d hate to think just how large their Navy will be in 10 years…..
Yes it’s bizarre…this is the navy that has more surface escorts hanging around the western Indian Ocean than any other navy ( around 6)…has a East African navel base that can home a supper carrier and battle group, is building a base in the gulf, a base that effectively sits on the eastern Indian Ocean..western pacific choke point…what most people don’t get is china could very easily send a large surface action group to freedom or navigate through the med…through the channel and North Sea….but they do not….and the question is why…because China is a huge blue water navy that tries to keep itself under the radar of the wests populations…because the CCP believe in political warfare…if they can convince the population of the west that they are not a threat to the west…they are happy…they know we no longer believe in our politicians and experts..so they can sell a perception or nothing to see here…right up until the point they decided it’s time to persuade Western Europe to stay out of its business with Taiwan…at which point the PLAN will be in Europes face just to show that yes we can cut your shipping lanes.
The PLAN have effectively two navies..a huge attritional green water navy made up of 80ish 1500-2500 ton light frigates and covervettes, 110+ 500 ton is fast attack craft and 60 ish electric submarines…all designed to fight a navel conflict around Taiwan..to draw in and fight the USNs very expensive and irreplaceable blue water, destroyers and SSNs..in a attritional battle with a navy china does not care if it losses…that purpose of that navy is not to win but to gut the USN before it’s destroyed…because the PLAN also has its blue water navy of 80+ larger surface combatants, 3 carriers and 12 large amplitude vessels….which it will be using in a blue water capability globally….
As for what it will have in 2030..that’s not hard to see what it’s been churning out every year..the only question is when will it stop launching 9 ish major surface vessels a year….
1) 2 13,000 ton cruisers
2) 4-5 75000 ton destroyers
3) 3 4500 ton frigates
4) 2 electric boats
5) 1 SSN every 2 years
it’s building a fourth carrier…and it’s seems to take china about 4-5 years to build a carrier.
Good commentary Jonathan, I can but only concur. However do take a look a my above comment to Frank. Analysis needs to be balanced against the combined capabilities of an allied combined fleet. I cant see that boding well for China.
Hi klonkie, I think you are right..at present on balance a United west would win..but I have a couple of caveats.
1) china has changed its position around allies and has started to actively court them..the anti western coalition ( china, North Korea, Iran/Syria and proxies, Russia and allies) is still not in the same place as the west and the west can still put more power down in any one place…but the anti western faction are gaining cohesion of action….Russia is burning through munitions suppled by, china, North Korea and iran…..It’s more and more likely that if the west and china go to war over tiawan at some point the west would be faced with Russia doing something, North Korea kicking off round two and Iran trying to close down the gulf. Then there will be the key battle grounds of Africa and South America…that will become very important in a long war……I think china will be working to ensure it has the allies ready….where India goes will be of key importance..as I don’t think India will be able to maintain neutrality in any super power war.
2) the impact of political warfare on the west. China and Russia are very much using political warfare to create mistrust of political and institutions in the population as well as division within the populations…they know that a sense of cohesion is important around the will to fight a long war..and they are constantly attacking that in the west…the US is a great example…a decade ago the majority of US citizens that had not voted for a U.S. president would still give them the benefit of the doubt on decisions made…now they will literally disagree and distrust every decision that president makes…..how will this trend impact on western leaders ability to fight a world war over a number of years..that would involve legislation that impacted massively on personal freedom and or suffering and wealth.
Basically like you I believe the west would win a short sharp war…but that is not the war china is planning for ( it knows it will loss)..it’s essentially planning for a long term grind of mutual suffering…with a working assumption of using political warfare to bring the west to terms…because the Chinese population is cohesive, controlled and will take the pain…but western populations will not…..to be honest I’m not completely sure they are wrong.
Really good commentary Jonathan, I enjoyed reading your analysis, seems a good appraisal of the Chinese geo political long game.
As always interesting comment Jonathan. The huge elephant in the room is of course the Nuclear possibility. It is the one scenario we are all afraid to contemplate but in the event of any serious conventional conflict then it takes just one Nuke to set off Armageddon. I do not believe that a major fight between any of the big powers could be contained to avoid the use of these weapons, particularly withe the mad rhetoric coming out of Russia and North Korea currently. It is as though there is a steady rise to insanity where machismo from dwarf dictators trumps rational thinking
Hi Geoff, indeed it is a huge risk as china now has a MAD level nuclear deterrent to deal with.
But I think it potentially a more contained risk with china than with say what we had with the USSR ( any war would have lead to a nuclear exchange) and still at present with Russia…but I think in a few years Russia will be very much dependent on china and china should be a bit of a mitigation.
So why the reduced risk with china:
1) china has a very strict no first use policy and is very very clear it will only ever use nuclear weapons as a responce to a nuclear attack on china…it does not even mount its warheads on its land and air based nuclear forces…chinas overriding goal is reunification first and foremost and secondary for china to be seen as major world power …its not really interested in the subjugation off the world under one communist banner as the USSR was….so a nuclear war is profoundly contrary to its aims.
2) china and the other nuclear powers (US and European) are so far away they are not an existential threat to each other…..they are a major threat but neither side can overrun and take the other…they can just force terms around world geostrategic advantage…so it’s not really in the interest of either side to go nuclear….if the west lost a war with china it would mean the loss of tiawan and world domination…not the destruction of the west…
what could cause a nuclear exchange.
1) Russia….Russia is a bit of a nuclear wild card….and still sees nuclear weapons as part of the battlefield…everyone else sees us of nuclear weapons on the battlefield as requiring a strategic responce…that’s a big risk that china would need to manage in any world war.
2) china will undertake attacks on the continental United States…its planning a long war with a political end and the only way to do that is to hurt a population…it’s unlikely to be kinetic against the continental US..but it will use cyber and it will use terror cells and sabotage…its also very likely to go kinetic against pearl….I’m not sure how the U.S. would respond to say a massive cyber attack that knocked out a massive part of its power grid and causes a lot of secondary deaths…would it go nuclear for that ?
so for me there is a risk as we have never really had a major war between nuclear powers ( just minor limited conflict or proxy wars)…but Russia would be the big wild card in any world war…if anyone trigger’s Armageddon it would be Russia with its mad appoach to tactical weapons…
Hi Frank,
Interesting to note that in this thread ,we missed one essential truth. With the exception of Nort Korea, China has no natural allies. Balance that against the Western + Eastern allies : USA, Japan South Korea, Singapore, Australia, India (the list goes on and I haven’t included the other NATO members). Fly in the ointment is Russia off course- what would thy do?
A cursory glance at the naval +air balance and it’s self evident China cannot prevail. It’ s a personal view, but I forsee the AUKUS gig morphing into into a mirror of NATO if China persists with their current strategy. Think about the threat of India’s army to China’s West with a coalition of the rest of the afore mentioned forces.
Your observation’s on the PLAN Navy however are spot on – we ignore them at our peril!
The USN is currently more than a match, but the rest of the alliance put together isn’t, and without US involvement the Chinese would ride roughshod over the region. We are reliant on the US not going through one of its insular phases.
Russia and Iran are allies of a kind, because they are the enemy of China’s enemy.
cheers Jon
Hi frank,
I have been saying for sometime that the current situation has some similarities with the 1930’s.
On the one hand we have NATO and aligned democracies. On the other side we have a group of aggressive nations looking to up end the current international norms.
The other point to remember is that WW2 started as a series of regional wars such as the Sino / Japanese war that started in 1937, the European war that in started in 1939 and were separate conflicts that eventually got rolled into one terrible conflagration.
We currently have two major regional wars that pit the two main groupings against each, via proxies. Ukraine and Gaza / Red Sea.
I don’t see these in themselves leading to WW3, but they could escalate which could seriously increase the risks.
We also need to keep a close eye on how the Russian, North Korea, China, Iran grouping develops. If their current loose alignment starts to evolve into something closer to an alliance then we could be facing a significantly more dangerous situation.
One of the biggest weaknesses regarding our own defence is for me is that, for an island nation, our navy is far too small. Much is talked about escorting carries and amphibs, etc.. What about convoys? SSN’s, no matter how good, cannot provide the escort capability of a T26 / T31 pair. Convoys will need protecting from subs and long range aircraft and as events in the Red Sea prove, it will be a global challenge as our supply lines are global.
The government likes to say we are part of an alliance as a cover for the poor state of our armed services. Unfortunately, NATO has cashed in on the peace dividend as well. Even the mighty USN only has about 90 escorts (cruisers / destroyers). That is barely enough to escort their own capital ships, let alone convoys.
Then there is the problem of resupply – see Ukraine War…
could write a book, sadly.
Forget the lessons of history..!?
Depressing ain’t it?
Cheers CR
But they haven’t demonstrated the ability to use any of that though. We don’t see Chinese task groups on the other side of the world on months long deployments. Or taking part in multi national exercises. Its like the RN never leaving the English Channel and the North Sea. Its all well and good saying you have these vessels and x amount of tonnage. But until you demonstrated the ability to deploy, at range, very far from home. Then it doesn’t really mean a lot.
Ermmm you do know that the PLAN sailed through the English Channel a fair few years ago Bob ? …… have you even taken the time to google what they have ? …… mate, I used to respect some of your stuff on here but lately…. I only see deluded and mis guided stuff….
I think our Armed Forces/intelligence services know exactly what they have, and where it is at any given point in time. And what threat they pose.
Hi Robert they have had a sustained presence from the western pacific to the gulf of Aden…
china has since 2008 sent 46 task forces up to the gulf of Aden and Persian gulf..these have included amphibious task groups and groups including submarine forces..the PLAN send an average of 3.6 task forces a year though the western pacific…across the Indian occean and into the gulf of Aden…these are generally all three ship task groups escorts + whatever else they practice deploying…either amphibious vessels or submarines and tenders…most of the year the PLAN with have six major warships in the gulf of Aden and or Persian gulf or 3 in the gulf and 3 transiting in the Indian Ocean…essentially it flows almost the equivalent of the entire RN escort fleet through the Indian Ocean in any one year..each of those deployments is around 7000nm….
infact you can look up every deployment…the Chinese call them fleets so at present the 45th fleet is in the gulf..the 46th fleet is pottering around Indian irritating them.. and will swap over with the 45th fleet….essentially each fleet is a type 52 destroyer and a type 54 frigate..as well as a 15,000 fleet replenishment vessel…at anyone time there is always one fleet transiting and one fleet sitting in the gulf of Aden..
china also spend a lot of time deploying into the eastern Indian o ocean and has been pushing its subs at India a lot to practice..
finally they always do at least one deployment a year down to Oceania..
Simply put the PLAN now do a lot of deployments from qaum to the gulf of Aden….the only place they do not go is the Atlantic and med…and it’s not because of capabilities…after all they have maintained a permanent presence in the gulf of Aden and Red Sea for 16 years…..and that’s 7000 nm from home…..
The PLAN have been playing under the radar…even their base developments are secretive…they don’t play security guarantors…they just do their own thing and pursue the agenda of the CCP.
They have a large navy and it’s getting larger every week. Definitely blue water.
During Pacific exercises in the winter, Shandong’s entourage included five destroyers, three frigates, and a large replenishment ship. I don’t know about the subs, but it doesn’t sound too shabby to me.
The fact china is building these shows where their view is on any future conflict…a very large carrier is not really needed in the direct Taiwan theatre, but in the context of the wider geostrategic picture..one of these would drag at least one active US carrier away from any Taiwan theatre….another key question is can china get more in commission by the 2030 timeframe….from the point of view of purely building the things yes they can…but crewing and commissioning are a difference thing…although they do have two smaller carriers they could decommission and use the crews from….if they can have 2 of these in the western Indian occean…it will significantly split the ability of the USNs available carrier battle groups…
A few years ago you could dismiss Liaoning as a training ship. I’d say Liaoning and Shandong are currently more than a match for Vikramaditya and Vikrant. Indian Rafales should change that, although perhaps not. Chinese air power is improving rapidly. While I’d expect engine upgrades to the J-15s, if they use a version of the FC-31 on the two ramped carriers instead (and why not) they might still overmatch the Indian carriers.
The Americans have decades of experience with big carriers and large air groups. And it takes blood, sweat, and tears to perfect carrier aviation. It does not happen overnight. Making a carrier into a floating airfield able to sustain air operations for months at a time is as demanding as it gets. The complexity is mind-boggling to bring every element of a warship together to result in an aircraft taking off from the deck, completing a complex sortie, and returning safely. The Chinese have a very long way to go.
That’s exactly the sort of Ignorance that the Americans and British displayed in WW2 about Japan….
The thing is Robert the PLAN have been quietly practicing carrier aviation since 2012…that’s 12 years of blood sweat and tears…2023 was a big year for Chinese carrier aviation..it spent most of the year with a carrier battle group deployed across the western pacific…undertaking flying opps next to each major hub or US navel power in the western pacific…I don’t think it will be very long (2025-26 may be) before it sends a CBG into the western Indian Ocean and sits in the gulf of Aden…..it’s got the basing capacity to now forward base a carrier battle group in that region for a long deployment if it wanted….
When you look at that PLAN and its capabilities it’s very much been playing a game of don’t scare the Europeans….I suspect as we get closer to the point that china decided if it’s taking Taiwan by force it will move to a scare the Europeans stance..by significantly enhancing its western Indian Ocean and gulf presence.
Yup…. they are certainly on a mission…… only the deluded arm chair Admirals will dismiss it……. Just like we are seeing on here lately…….
If you are poking for a reaction. You aren’t going to get it.
Not sure Robert. We dismissed the Japanese before WW2 and all services paid for it.
Did we even consider China in 1950, and got a right kicking.
Prudence might suggest planning for an overwhelming confrontation with China. Just saying.
Just saying. This isnt the 1940s. We live in a connected world.A global economy. You can not compare the events of the past to today.
Well I think it’s important to compare the events of the past to the present day if only to determine what similarities or differences any given event or scenario may represent. Re inventing the wheel for your important decision making is dangerous in and of itself. China and Russia indeed are obsessed with the past in making their present decisions. But admittedly one has to be very aware of the differences too.
The mission is the belt and road initiative, its changing the trade paradigm across the planet. And its hardly mentioned in the media 🙄
China’s going to want to start to playing in the Atlantic. If there’s war in the Pacific then where’s the US going to lean on for supply lines? They’re close to having a new base in west Aftrica, whon’t be too long before we’re shadowing PLAN ship through the channel and North Sea.
They were in the Baltics a few years back, regular attendance at Russian fleet review at St Petersburg.
I think your right, but they still seem to be playing low key in what are perceived to be the wests oceans..so the Atlantic and eastern pacific….they have put a hell of a lot of effort into the Indian Ocean..especially the key pacific to Indian Ocean choke points and Indian Ocean to med choke points…..with the navy they have they could easily have permanent west African flotilla…but historically they have not been focused on defence packs or freedom of the seas guarantees like the west and have gone very much only gone where they see a direct security interest ( while also practicing global deployments for a more general war…their deployments of submarines and amphibious vessels to the gulf of Aden was pure practice).
You’ll recall they were pushing for a base in Argentina for sometime. Of course China is relying on influence it buys so its perhaps been easier in the areas you mentioned. Also for China after the west it sees India as a major competitor so Indian ocean expansion serves 2 purposes so perhaps why its been a priority.
To be honest I think the friction between India and china may be the big balancer… in a multi polar world one of the big pieces on the board is india…an India fully aligned with the western democracies puts a massive spanner in the works for china…a neutral or Russia leaning India would be bad for the west in regards to the Indian ocean…which would be one of the big keys to victory in any major western vs china/Russia/Iran war.
They will probably build a plastic island and use it to claim the Channel soon I reckon.
Hi folks, the thing that worries me about china is at some point they are going start making tech they have stolen better because they’re pumping money in to military and space at a scary rate.
If it’s like every other piece of Chinese made stuff I’ve bought, it will fail a few days after the warranty expires.
China may be able to churn out large numbers of naval vessels but as their expanded fleet ages, they will hit the same maintenance problems that beset Western navies. The one in three rule will apply to them as well.
Meanwhile, the way to counter a numerically superior surface navy is to increase submarine capability. Aukus is exactly the right way to go.
Isn’t all this increasing Chinese fleet showing an urgency for a greater anti-ship ability for the F35B’s? Are the TR3/Block 4 delays still holding all of this/Spear program up? And any ASM’s yet for the P-8s and Typhoons? Are the Astute’s going to have anti ship ability besides torpedoes, with their Tomahawks v5? And any further news on the Venom for the Wildcats?
Rhetorical questions? Sea Venom is late, FOC now 2026; F35 tech refresh 3 is also delayed so years before Sea Spear and Meteor integrated. No plans I’m aware of to fit heavy ASMs to any UK aircraft. Astutes will keep Tomahawk in the land attack role but probably not an anti ship version.
All rather unsatisfactory.
Hi Peter, lol, just asking. I actually got a bit exhausted reading all the posts and banter above. All good reading. At least with a greater adoption of MK41s in the fleet there’ll be options for a variety of weapons and maybe some more sets of NSM would be prudent while we’re waiting and maybe LRASM for the P-8s.
Or as the US is planning to do – Use both submarines and its long-range bombers with stand-off weapons outside the range of Chinese missiles to annihilate the Chinese fleets.
Yes an no…it’s depends…the problem is the likely first theatre and that will be the china seas around Taiwan…this is not a great area to send big SSNs..especially if they are going to be duelling with electric boats…it’s not an exchange the west would want to engage in….
The problem really is not so much taking on China globally…as I’m sure the west would win that…the problem will be that the first major navel campaign will be in the china seas….and the rule of three applies when your deploying away from home…Less so when you are at home…also The PLAN is very much a navy of two sides…one is very large green water attrition navy..the next is a large blue water navy….the wests problem is risks losing a very large chunk of its blue water navy against an essentially disposable green water navy if it reacts in to break an invasion of tiawan…how does the USN manage a blue water navy of around its own size globally as well as engage in an attritional conflict in the china seas….if it ignores the china seas…it gives china Taiwan..but if it diverts most of its combat power into the china seas its losing irreplaceable blue water vessels, destroyer, carriers and SSNs against attritional electric boats, 2500 ton light frigates and corvettes, missile boats and land based missiles and attack aircraft…while stripping its ability to manage chinas blue water navy ( which is very large…as in 80 mostly very modern major surface combatants)…
finally after any conflict…which will probably see both navies gutted it will be about who recovers first….peace time building china puts out about 8 major surface combatants a year…the U.S. 1….if both nations when to war time footing and used all their shipyard capacity..the U.S. could produce 100,000 tones of shipping a year for its navy..china 2.6million tons a year…as china now has over 50% of the worlds ship building capacity..or 260 times the ship building capacity of the USA…what people are really not getting is that from the point of view of ship building…china is where Britain was at the hight of empire…china can build a navy in a few years if it needed to ( even in peace time it’s putting the same tonnage as the RN in the water every few years) the U.S. would take many decades to rebuild the USN after a major war……
In any conflict with China the US would not operate any major vessels anything other than east of Taiwan, anything else would be suicide. It would try to support Taiwan (assuming it intervened) from there or on the island itself. Sounds rather like the Philippines in WW2 to me but it would try to take out any landing force at distance so that they could never gain a serious foothold on the island itself. Can it work, only if the untested Chinese proved very poor I fear, but the only time they have been tested while on Middle Eastern peace keeping duties they were humiliated so who knows. Dangerous play by both sides mind and as you say the Chinese are far more capable of rebuilding, while serious losses to the US could potentially pull the Country apart with self incrimination and bitterness, something ironically US experts liked to claim would happen to China.
Got to say the Hisense microwave I bought as a test of potential Chinese new found excellence is a relative pile of junk (shocked at its poor design, lack of ease of use and build quality), so yeah when Western designers aren’t involved quality seems to be iffy and varied at best. That said they have shown they can produce high quality gear when the design is right and they are improving on the design side just as the Japanese did decades back, so I will keep an open mind for now and especially as time passes.
All very good points…one would hope the U.S. did not suffer from massive hubris and react into the china seas…or get dragged and drag the west into an attritional war we would not be suited to winning anymore.
Hark at the voluble armchair pundits
Good Evening,
Perhaps the Royal Navy could buy a couple of Fuhian carriers as well as a 10 class 055 destroyers and 15 class 054 frigates. Of course shipped over and fitted for condition so we can mount our systems accordingly! Our fleet would be rapidly increased in a short time instead of waiting for our politicians to decide or not?
Hopeful wishes Nick
So buy a carrier that presently doesn’t work due to technical issues, how very British.