The UK is currently undertaking “detailed analysis to evaluate the scale and timeline” for a purchase of a second tranche of F-35B Lightning aircraft.

Jeremy Quin, Minister for Defence Procurement, stated:

“The 2021 Integrated Review confirmed our ambition to continue the growth of the UK Lightning Force beyond 48 aircraft. We are currently undertaking period of detailed analysis to evaluate scale and timeline for procurement of our second tranche of F35B Lightning aircraft together with associated infrastructure and support requirements.”

The United Kingdom recently made it “absolutely clear” that it will be purchasing more than 48 F-35 jets (now 47), according to a senior defence minister.

At a recent session of the Defence Committee. focussing on the Royal Navy, it was stated by Jeremy Quin, Minister for Defence Procurement, that:

“As you know, we are going to acquire 48. We have made it absolutely clear that we will be acquiring more. We have committed to have 48 in service by 2025, and we will be acquiring more. We have set that out in the IR. We will set out the exact numbers in 2025.

The 138 number is still there. That is a defined number and we are looking at keeping these aircraft carriers in operation for a very long period of time. I am not dismissing that number either. We know that we have 48 to which we are committed, and we know that we will buy more beyond that.”

How many are expected?

The former First Sea Lord said during a webcast earlier this year that the UK intends to purchase ‘around 60’ F-35B jets and then ‘maybe more up to around 80’ for four deployable squadrons.

A defence insider informed the UK Defence Journal of a live webcast given today by the First Sea Lord.

“The First Sea Lord has just said 60 F-35, then maybe more up to around 80 for 4 deployable squadrons.”

UK looking at ’60 and then maybe up to 80′ F-35B jets

According to the Defence Command Paper titled ‘Defence in a Competitive Age’, the UK intends to increase the fleet size beyond the 48 F-35 aircraft it has already ordered.

“The Royal Air Force will continue to grow its Combat Air capacity over the next few years as we fully establish all seven operational Typhoon Squadrons and grow the Lightning II
Force, increasing the fleet size beyond the 48 aircraft that we have already ordered. Together they will provide a formidable capability, which will be continually upgraded to meet the threat, exploit multi domain integration and expand utility.

The Royal Air Force will spiral develop Typhoon capability, integrate new weapons such as the UK developed ‘SPEAR Cap 3’ precision air launched weapon and invest in the Radar 2 programme to give it a powerful electronically scanned array radar. We will integrate more UK weapons onto Lightning II and invest to ensure that its software and capability are updated alongside the rest of the global F 35 fleet.”

The total of 80 is welcome news given the speculation the buy could be capped at 48.

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George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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Paul Tootill
Paul Tootill (@guest_599892)
2 years ago

Why “(now 47)”? Are we not paying for the lost one now?

Jon
Jon (@guest_599898)
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Tootill

It does seem odd when talking about acquisitions. You could understand us buying an extra one more easily than buying one fewer. It depends on whether that commitment to have 48 in service by 2025 still stands.

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_599899)
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Tootill

We currently have 35 F-35 contracted, 24 of which have been delivered. 1 of that 24 has now been lost. So for the UK to hit its target of 48 at the end of 2025 it means that we need to order an additional 14 aircraft, rather than the expected 13.

James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_599900)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

Yes that has probably already happened. 6 are due for delivery next year and 7 in 2023, so the target will be hit in 2023 not 2025. The decision on final numbers will be taken in 2025, but a follow-on order is needed sooner. So a second tranche of maybe 12 is likely soon (13 including the attrition replacement).

Last edited 2 years ago by James Fennell
Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_599910)
2 years ago
Reply to  James Fennell

No contract has been signed for the last 13 (or 14) a/c to make it to 48. Thats because they should be covered by the Full Rate Production pricing (FRP) agreement which has dragged on for an age and still isn’t signed…. We will not hit the delivery of 48 until December 2025 at the earliest….the recent and future deliveries have been ‘re-profiled’, partly due to Covid, Turkey’s exit and other issues. We were due 6 at the end of this year, only 3 arrived with the other 3 dropping into next year and a commensurate delay in next years… Read more »

Crabfat
Crabfat (@guest_600200)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

There never seems to be reference these days to procuring the F35A version for the RAF. Is that now a dead duck? Will both services only fly the B version? Probably a more flexible solution, I guess.

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_600258)
2 years ago
Reply to  Crabfat

It was only ever RAF trying to get their hands on a dedicated fleet just for themselves. Endless floating of the idea to see if anyone bit…but the SoS for Defence has stamped on it, and with the Navy occupying the CDS chair, probably for the foreseeable as, uniquely, they seem to actually have decent leadership…its totally dead.

Jezz Bowden
Jezz Bowden (@guest_600299)
2 years ago
Reply to  Crabfat

Wasn’t there a decision to switch to just the one type for all theatres?

Meirion x
Meirion x (@guest_599904)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

The extra order would need to be made before 2025 IR, for deliveries between 2026-28.

Last edited 2 years ago by Meirion x
James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_599906)
2 years ago
Reply to  Meirion x

I suspect from the comments by Radakin, there will be two follow-on orders – one up to 60 soon, and one up to 80 in 2025 if things go to plan.

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_599911)
2 years ago
Reply to  Meirion x

Doubt it will be that soon. It needs to happen before 2030 as after that Tempest sucks the budget dry, but Typhoon radar and other upgrades, plus Block IV upgrade costs for the existing fleet will come first.

I expect we’ll order 12+ additional spread over 2026-2028 for delivery prior to 2030. I’m very sceptical of the 80+ number….can’t see any space in the budget for it…but I’d love to be pleasently surprised…80 would be perfect (72 is the minimum we should get, mid 90’s the highest….never mind about 138…)

James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_599917)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

It depdends how good Radakin is at getting efficiencies made in the other services and most importantly in MOD / DE&S. Also on what settlement follows on from the current four year spending plan which will expire at the end of 2024.

There is probably money for 12 in the current plan.

Last edited 2 years ago by James Fennell
Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_600259)
2 years ago
Reply to  James Fennell

There is no money in the plan.

The MoD still has a colossal black hole in its Equipment Plan.

The only way they get access to more funds is by cutting other capabilities.

James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_600269)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

There is no black hole – it was filled last year. I don’t know why this nonsense comes up. The whole point of the £24 Billion settlment last year (which was largely for equipment) was to fill that hole and add more (the two settlments last year add up to £24 Billion before you say it was only £16 Billion).

To spell it out the black hole was £7 Billion (before cancellation of WCSP) as reported by NAO. The settlements last year were for £24 Billion. https://uk.news.yahoo.com/mod-faces-7bn-black-hole-132901381.html

Last edited 2 years ago by James Fennell
Geoff Roach
Geoff Roach (@guest_599915)
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Tootill

One has been lost.

Jim
Jim (@guest_600084)
2 years ago
Reply to  Geoff Roach

No, they’ve found it.

Darren. B
Darren. B (@guest_600122)
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Tootill

Fell off the end of one of our aircraft carriers

ML
ML (@guest_600183)
2 years ago
Reply to  Paul Tootill

One fell into the sea.

David Barry
David Barry (@guest_599893)
2 years ago

@daniele will be making full use of his old spare sock!

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_599965)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

? ! 😜

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_600004)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

Not at his age.

David Barry
David Barry (@guest_599895)
2 years ago

On a serious point, with just teo platforms to concentrate on, it seems weapons capability is being improved. Hopefully, the grown ups can comment.

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_599903)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

By the time Block IV upgrades have been completed, hopefully, to the full Lot 17 standard with enhanced EW capability across our entire fleet to avoid a ‘fleet within fleets’ issue we ‘should’ have more weapons available…. But given the demands of training, operational deployments, profile of aircraft deliveries and the need to pull aircraft in for different levels of upgrade (based on their age) that won’t realistically happen before 2027. By then we should have Asraam CSP, Meteor, Amraam D, Paveway IV, Paveway IV Penetrator and Spear available (with potential for Spear-EW and SpearGlide to arrive if we order… Read more »

James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_599905)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

Yes, I think keeping T1 Typhoon in service would have been a mistake if the option is to have more F-35, as both upgraded Typhoon T2/3 and F35 can integrate a range of new weapons. Mosquito drone will fly in 2023, and that is another option as both T2/3 Typhoon and F-35 can team with it and provide mass, whereas T1 Typhoon could not. We desperately need a low-cost precision guided bomb with plenty of warhead options for follow-up mass, and to arm Mosquito. The Alvina swarming drone must also be integrated at some point, and that too will require… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by James Fennell
John N
John N (@guest_599901)
2 years ago

Bit of breaking news, Finland has confirmed that the F-35A will replace their F/A-18 fleet:

https://ilmavoimat.fi/en/-/the-lockheed-martin-f-35a-lightning-ii-is-finland-s-next-multi-role-fighter

A Total of 64 aircraft will be procured.

The F-35 keeps winning competition after competition.

Now for Canada, will the Canucks ever make their mind up?

Cheers,

Goldilocks
Goldilocks (@guest_599907)
2 years ago
Reply to  John N

64 is a pretty good number, especially for a country like Finland with Mother Russia next door. Will give the Russian’s something to think about. Didn’t the Swiss buy F-35’s as well recently? Anyway, Canada just removed a new F-18 Hornet out of the competition to replace… their F-18 Hornet’s! (or CF-18 to be specific). This leaves just the Gripen E and F-35 left – looking at the current trend it looks lie the F-35 might have the edge. Any F-35 competition wins will have a positive effect on British Industry, so let’s hope more keep coming – not to… Read more »

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_599912)
2 years ago
Reply to  Goldilocks

British content on Gripen is much higher than F-35…

Rudeboy1
Rudeboy1 (@guest_600597)
2 years ago
Reply to  Rudeboy1

What do you mean by ‘the UK’s’? Because if you’re talking equipment made by UK owned companies, but not made in the UK you will hit 15%. But if you’re talking ‘actually Made in the UK’ its between 5-7% of value. For example…BAE Systems makes the very expensive Electronic Warfare system for the F-35…..in the US. Thats included in the 15%…. Rolls Royce makes the very expensive LiftSystem for the F-35B…..in the US (Pittsburgh)…thats included in the 15%…. Martin Baker makes the Ejection Seat for all models of the F-35…..at its factory in the US….Jonestown Pennsylvania…thats included in the 15%…… Read more »

David Barry
David Barry (@guest_599908)
2 years ago
Reply to  John N

Some coin for UK coffers and a clear sign of Finland as a reliable partner.

Steve
Steve (@guest_599921)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

The question is how their order is structured. The longer we dither and delay making decisions, the further down the queue our eventual order becomes.

David Barry
David Barry (@guest_599975)
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve

… good things come those that wait… so they say.

Steve
Steve (@guest_599980)
2 years ago
Reply to  David Barry

Let’s hope so. Wars tend to happen when you least expect them, thanks to that being the most optimal timing to start one. Hopefully no war before we need them.

If the gamble pays off then we probably get them cheaper and more capable.

David Barry
David Barry (@guest_599984)
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve

With you on that.

James Fennell
James Fennell (@guest_599909)
2 years ago
Reply to  John N

Canada have narrowed it down to Gripen E or F-35A. The RCAF will want F-35A, but the treasury will have a say.

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_600006)
2 years ago
Reply to  John N

The best fighter for the Canadians, would be the new semi stealth, South Korean twin engine fighter. Won’t happen of course.

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_601176)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Hartley

The Boromae? is mainly made of American bits (engines, etc).

Challenger
Challenger (@guest_599966)
2 years ago

72 F35’s by 2030 to equip 4 squadrons and a small reserve fleet seems like a pretty decent and modest compromise. Enough to get 24 aircraft deployed with the CSG at least.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_599991)
2 years ago
Reply to  Challenger

I think 80 would be a good number.

4 frontline squadrons: 48 planes
OCU: 8 planes
OEU: 4 planes
Spares: 20 planes

Challenger
Challenger (@guest_600069)
2 years ago
Reply to  Steve R

80 would be great but if that’s only a vague aspiration for the more distant future then 70ish would be a good compromise as 60 still isn’t really enough to generate a substantial/regular carrier air wing within the normal cycle of training and maintenance.

chris stocken
chris stocken (@guest_599989)
2 years ago

Two squadrons of F35A’s would be nice

Sean
Sean (@guest_600696)
2 years ago
Reply to  chris stocken

Not for the U.K. it wouldn’t. Unnecessary costs and complications due to the differences between F35 types. But a moot point as it’s never going to happen.

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_600002)
2 years ago

Playing fantasy fleets, I would have all 3 F-35 types for the UK. 24 F-35A to replace the tranche 1 Typhoons in the RAF. At least 52 F-35B for the FAA. Remember the first 3 are early trials aircraft & not suitable for combat. Plus we have lost one. So you need at least 52 to have 48 to fight with. If QE/PoW can be fitted with advanced arrester gear, then having 8x F-35C on each carrier, in addition to the F-35B, the C gives greater range & weapon choice. The A & C can take heavier bigger weapons, such… Read more »

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600038)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Hartley

I think this will be on the carriers at some point in time?

“Some defence analysts contend the rather limited range of carrier aircraft pushes the ships to operate closer to the adversary, making the ships more vulnerable to attack.”

https://www.janes.com/defence-news/air-platforms/latest/carrier-bush-prepares-for-additional-stingray-testing

Last edited 2 years ago by Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600040)
2 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins

And for a very good reason! To be sure, China’s potential adversaries are aware of its ambitions to target ships at sea with ASBMs. They have once again begun to train their navies to strictly manage their electronic emissions to evade China’s ISR collection assets. Within the South China Sea, however, the time when such basic countermeasures are enough may be dwindling. While it may never be publicly known whether China’s 2019 or 2020 ASBM firings into the South China Sea were directed against mobile or fixed targets (or whether they were successful or not), the fact that the missile… Read more »

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_600082)
2 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins

I watched an interesting video about the advanced versions of the F-14 offered to the USN. This was at the end of the cold war when many projects were cancelled. The USN was in the doghouse for spending $10billion on new stillborn designs that never entered service. They went for the Super Hornet as it was deemed the cheapest option. The alternative was new build Super F-14 with greater internal fuel & new engines. It would have had far greater range than the Super Hornet. This new F-14 Super Tomcat would have had precision strike as well as air defence… Read more »

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_600151)
2 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins

Hopefully we’ve got some silo location intelligence on these ASBMs? Maybe these can be targeted pre-emptively or at least in a very quick response if need be.

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600192)
2 years ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Quite possibly, but that will not be an easy task given the modernisation of China’s highly mobile air defence systems like the new FK-2000 self-propelled air-defence system HQ-9 and S-400. Area denial and the ability to strike back at ever-increasing ranges has become a real problem for the west to counter and still is. “As per the deal, China has purchased 6 battalions of S-400. Each battery of China consists of a Mobile Command Center, different types of radars and 6 launchers. Thus, in total China possess 6 Mobile Command Center, around 12 radars and 36 launchers (6 × 6 = 36).17… Read more »

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600227)
2 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins
Last edited 2 years ago by Nigel Collins
Sean
Sean (@guest_600701)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Hartley

How are you planning on flying both F35B and F35C off our carriers? 🤷‍♂️ The B needs the ramp for best weapons load, the C needs a catapult. The RN thinks there’s space to fit a small catapult for UAVs far smaller than the F35. But there’s not room for full size catapult without major rebuild work to add an angled flight-deck. Then there’s the need for greater spares storage due to the differences in parts between the B and C. Finally, the only purchaser of the C is the USN. That would expose the U.K. to a huge risk… Read more »

John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_601177)
2 years ago
Reply to  Sean

If QE/PoW can be fitted with Advanced arrester gear, then they would be STOBAR. Boeing tested a STOBAR F/A-18E Super Hornet for the Indians. Using that, I think the F-35C should be looked at to see if it can be STOBAR capable. If RN carriers had an airgroup of 20x F-35B + 8x F-35C, they would be formidable.

Sean
Sean (@guest_601178)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Hartley

Right, and how many did the Indians buy?… Funny you mentioning the F18E given it has a smaller combat radius than the F35B. If the carriers has 28 F35B’s they would be formidable. Having both B and C types on board would be a nightmare:- • increased parts inventory due to significant differences between them • increased ground crew/ engineers to handle the differences • potentially two sets of non-interchangeable pilots – those qualified on the B and those qualified on the C And that’s assuming you can find a way to launch the C off the QE class given… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Sean
John Hartley
John Hartley (@guest_601269)
2 years ago
Reply to  Sean

The point is that both the B & the C would use the ski jump for take offs. Yes the C would need some extra software for that, but not impossible. Most modern agile combat jets can be modified for STOBAR. The Indians have been offered STOBAR versions of Super Hornet & Typhoon. They currently have STOBAR Mig-29K in service on their carrier. P&W have been offering an engine upgrade for the F-35. If we adopted that for this proposed F-35C it would probably make up most of the shortcoming from using a ski ramp rather than a catapult. The… Read more »

Sean
Sean (@guest_601273)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Hartley

Then the C would nosedive into the water. The engine on the F35 (same on all variants) isn’t enough on its own to get it airborne on such a short take-off using the ramp. That’s why the B has a lift-fan.
Even if P&W are taken up on the offer of a new version of the engine (for ALL variants) and extra software for C to take-off from the ramp then you’re looking at another 5 years from now.

It’s not going to happen.
Fantasy fleets.

Last edited 2 years ago by Sean
Peregrine16
Peregrine16 (@guest_600025)
2 years ago

Radar 2 sounds like a very significant capability upgrade for Typhoon, do we know when Radar 2 will go into service? A combined force of F35 and Radar2 equipped Typhoons could be formidable. Can we have an article on Radar2 please?

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600194)
2 years ago
Reply to  Peregrine16

2023 will be the first scheduled test flight of Radar 2 on Typhoon as I understand it.

Mr Bell
Mr Bell (@guest_600026)
2 years ago

80 has to be a bare minimum number needed to equip 1 QE carrier for strike mission (36 aircraft) plus another with a defendive / littoral warfare load of say 18 aircraft. Whilst then retaining some for close air support and strike fighter missions vs near peer/ peer adversaries by RAF.
80 is really a minimum serviceable number.

Frank62
Frank62 (@guest_600031)
2 years ago

With a belligerent expansive PRC & Russia we must up all our forces. We need to be able to operate 24 from each carrier simultaneously plus whatever the RAF needs as a minimum. The peace dividend is long over & the effects of our love affair with austerity on our military has left Putin & Xi extremely confident to expand & bully neighbours.

Last edited 2 years ago by Frank62
Richard B
Richard B (@guest_600034)
2 years ago

Interesting that he specifically says “second tranche of F-35B Lightning aircraft”. Good news for the RN, and maybe the RAF has given up on idea of some F-35As.  1SL’s 80 aircraft seems to be derived from a target of 4 frontline squadrons each with 8 deployable a/c; an OCU of about 12 a/c; a test & eval unit of 3-4 a/c; the withdrawal from service of early build aircraft (9?) that can’t be economically upgraded to at least the Block 4 standard; plus sufficient reserves (20 a/c?) to allow for deep maintenance and attrition through to the likely 2050’s out of… Read more »

John Clark
John Clark (@guest_600057)
2 years ago
Reply to  Richard B

If we order an extra batch of F35B, we need to do it relatively soon, it’s important to take advantage of USMC multi year contracts and leverage our orders into their buys.

The cost of the B, with its bespoke propulsion systems and structural assemblies will absolutely mushroom when Uncle Sam winds down the orders…..

Richard B
Richard B (@guest_600098)
2 years ago
Reply to  John Clark

The UK hasn’t even placed all its Batch 1 (48 a/c) orders yet, Batch 2 orders won’t happen until 2025+. The MOD doesn’t have the money in the equipment budget to speed this up without cancelling or defering another high cost project (FSSS? Ajax? Tempest? …). The F-35 production line seems safe well in to the 2030’s, and the unit price is on a downward path regardless of US multi-year buys. The MOD’s strategy has some logic.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_600152)
2 years ago
Reply to  Richard B

The powers that be need to seriously get on with it and place this next order asap and even speed it up if necessary. Less faffing around and less posh waffle. Both carriers are waiting!

DJ
DJ (@guest_600223)
2 years ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Placing the order today will not overly speed up delivery. But yes, LM would appreciate the heads up. Conversely, UK is not the only nation looking at more F35B. It’s the only Harrier replacement out there. At some point, Spain will have to go F35B or drop out of the aircraft carrier club. South Korea & Japan are likely to order more, as is Singapore. Australia has not gone away. Italy is on board. The biggest problem is LM delivering what they promised in anything like a timely manner. Every F35 delivered now needs massive upgrades from day of delivery… Read more »

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600235)
2 years ago
Reply to  DJ

See my post above and associated links, particularly the latter.

Nigel Collins
Nigel Collins (@guest_600231)
2 years ago
Reply to  Richard B

Something else to factor into the equasion which will require Block 4 software, now delayed once again until the later part of this decade as I recall? “LONDON — The high costs of supporting F-35s and a failure to quickly integrate the MBDA Meteor missile to the aircraft could slow British plans to buy more of the jets, defence secretary Ben Wallace warned June 23. Wallace told Britain’s Parliamentary defence select committee that he had the budget to buy more than the 48 jets the military has already ordered, but wanted to see progress controlling maintenance costs and fair treatment… Read more »

Last edited 2 years ago by Nigel Collins
Deep32
Deep32 (@guest_600322)
2 years ago
Reply to  Nigel Collins

LM are really struggling with getting sustainment costs down to acceptable levels, never mind those quoted at the programmes inception.
Believe that this may end up being the programmes greatest issue for the foreseeable future and will probably determine the eventual USAF aircraft buy.

Deep32
Deep32 (@guest_600595)
2 years ago
Reply to  Deep32

My, aren’t we the cheery sort!
Have to agree that Boza and his crew will be gone, and, if Tempest fails, we will buy F35A instead. We may even buy some if we are getting Tempest, but it’s delayed beyond 2035, when Typhoon starts to fall off the plot due to age.

Deep32
Deep32 (@guest_600596)
2 years ago
Reply to  Deep32

PS, fully intend to have a great Christmas regardless, ta!

Deep32
Deep32 (@guest_600647)
2 years ago
Reply to  Deep32

Yes, wouldn’t disagree at all!😂

Sean
Sean (@guest_600705)
2 years ago
Reply to  Deep32

Off your meds I see!

christopher rhys cozens
christopher rhys cozens (@guest_600605)
2 years ago

Drop all this damn advertising. It is a distracting bloody nuisance. Either be a defence journal or a cheap advertising board. You choose.

rgds,

chris cozens