Britain’s Chief of the Defence Staff says that it is not ‘inevitable’ that Russia will defeat Ukraine.
Asked on BBC News recently whether Russia winning was ‘inevitable’ Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, Chief of the Defence Staff, said:
“No. I think we’ve seen a Russian invasion that is not going well. I think we’re also seeing remarkable resistance by Ukraine, both its armed forces and its people and we’re seeing the unity of the whole globe coming together, applying pressure to Russia.
‘Russia is suffering, Russia is an isolated power. It is less powerful than it was ten days ago. Some of the lead elements of Russian forces have been decimated by the Ukrainian response. You’ve also seen basic failures in terms of maintenance and their kit failing. Russia hasn’t operated at this scale since the Second World War and it is incredibly complex and difficult.”
What’s happening now?
According to the Ministry of Defence, Britain believes that Russia is currently engaged in targetting Ukrainian communications networks.
Latest Defence Intelligence update on the situation in Ukraine – 07 March 2022
Find out more about the UK government's response: https://t.co/D3NG9b9zMX
🇺🇦 #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦 pic.twitter.com/lIjezjELsE
— Ministry of Defence 🇬🇧 (@DefenceHQ) March 7, 2022
The situation on the ground is as follows.
Here's where things stand this morning in #Ukraine. pic.twitter.com/CRiNAJnDOG
— George Allison (@geoallison) March 7, 2022
A major talking point over the last few days is the Russian failure to control the skies, the British Ministry of Defence has even advised that Russia is now attempting to limit their losses by flying at night.
Why can’t the Russian air force gain air superiority over Ukraine?
Is the Russian Air Force incapable of complex air operations? That is the question being asked by Justin Bronk, Research Fellow for Airpower and Technology in the Military Sciences team at RUSI. You can read his answer here.
I don’t think anyone expected Russian forces to do this badly. Yes, many of the troops are underfed conscripts earning almost nothing but I would have expected Russia to have gained air superiority and knocked out all Ukranian jets. This is ultimately good news for NATO. Typhoons, Lightnings, F22s would make absolute mincemeat of any aircraft Russia has. Leopards, C2s & Abrams combined with Apaches & A10s would decimate ground forces. If it wasn’t for the nukes Russia would be incredibly weak militarily and NATO could enforce a no fly zone allowing Ukranians to finish the job. I think once… Read more »
It’s interesting to see. I never thought Russia had any chance on maintaining a sustained conflict with major nations due to its far weaker economy but it always seemed to have a strong – or at least large – military at face value.
Russia never had the logistics or modern equipment training or anything else to go invading decent size countries
Maybe the new advice is ‘Don’t invade, Russia’?!
‘At face value’. That’s the point. Russia has made a great of show of doing a lot of high tech military projects overe the last few years – but how much of that work has led to meaningful increases in the stregth of their armed forces? There are lots of examples, lets just take one: The Armata T14 tank. May be the best tank in the world – but HOW many are they making? 2200? Nope about 100 or 2. And that’s the point. Big ideas, nowhere near the resources to match those ideas. Based purely on economics, I would… Read more »
So much is said about the Armata T14 tank being the best in the world, but who is saying it? The Russians, basically! How can a tank that has never been in battle be the best in the world? Russia has always ‘bigged’ it’s equipment & capability up. As you say Rob, & I agree, the bulk of Russia’s forces are ill trained & their equipment is poor, & from the view of an ex-infanteer, their tactics & tactical command so far in Ukraine is dire!!
Their only real force multiplier are their submarine force, the Severodvinsk is a real power house, just one or two of them undetected is a big deterrent. Bur of course this is no use in the Ukraine situation. The Kilo class is also a big worry as they are supposedly silent when not running diesels like all modern AIP or Diesel electric submarines.
I can’t really say I know much concerning Russian sea power tbh, but a few ex-matelot mates of mine told me that the Russian navy were in their words “embarrassing” in the way they operated, & were never a threat above, over or under water to the RN.
That’s why I motioned their submariner force in particular, its one of the few areas where I hear only very professional praise for them. Same can’t be said for senior leadership running said force.
Interesting story, a friend of a friend was in the Navy for 21 years, during the 90’s (when the Western / Russian relationship was at its best), he got to visit a Russian Warship….
He was stunned, an absolute death trap, virtually no fire fighting equipment and even fewer people trained to operate it.
Years of modifications and equipment upgrades, meant that cabling was running through large drilled holes in bulkheads!!!
It was horrendous apparently and he really felt for the poor lads who had to work and potentially fight in these floating tombs….
I was working at the fleet review in Portsmouth in 2005 and had a walk around the Russian destroyer Admiral Levchenko. From a distance looks mean, on board you can see it was out of date, paint simply covered up rust. We walked around the entire ship and I wasn’t that impressed. Neither was I impressed with the Indian navy ship , tried to cadge a curry off them , but they just smiled and nodded their heads.The thing is nobody in my family has that trait.really off putting.
I will back that up. Upper deck fire fighting hydrants painted so many times that they didnt move and probably couldn’t ever be opened. Wires run through holes drilled in bulkheads compromising Fire and Flood integrity. The cables certainly where not LFH , they where the rubber covered, the choking black smoke in a fire kind.
The command system was individual screens for individual systems, reporting over a comms system headset to a guy with a china graph on a large perspex board who marked up contacts for all to see.
Hi John being ex RN the only pain from the Ruskies when at sea was Their Surface vessels were Shite at RAS refuelling ar sea their Seamanship skills were that that of a Boating lake again iffy the only surface vessels we would keep our eyes on Were their AGIs Spy ships forever following us picking up our jettisoned gash bags too gleam any information late 80ts we stopped ditching Gash overboard they stopped following us oh then the Berlin Wall fell and for many years it went quite until puking turned up
Hi mate, in context, I was based in Gib (South Barracks) in the late 80’s & had a mooch around a T22 (either HMS Campbelltown or Cumberland) & I was well impressed with the kit, op’s looked like the starship Enterprise to my young eyes! I know the hydrants worked well ‘cos I had the hoses turned on me when (during the 1st time I had ever sailed a boat) the wind dropped & I drifted into the ship! Happy days lol! Take care bro’
The Kilo class arent a particular ptoblem. Astute, Suffren, Sea Wolf, Virginia class can defeat them with relative ease. The Russian submarine force is large and I agree is likely Russia’s most dangerous conventional weapon.
However they may prove to be a paper tiger like the Russian airforce and army are now proving in the Ukraine war.
Agree if the best tank in the world is the tank that is combat proven with lowest losses to enemy fire then that’ll be the Chally 2.T14 is going to be rubbish. I dont think Russian optics, targetting and sensor integration is going to be good enough to fuse all elements together seamlessly to deliver the worlds best.
Also I dont think Russian material science is good enough to develop an effective armoured solution that is as good as or surpass Dorchester or even Chobham armour.
“Russia has always ‘bigged’ it’s equipment & capability up.”
They’re not the only ones mate, we ALL do it. I could (but can’t) tell you about some of ‘our’ claims on gear over the years that don’t quite tally up with the blurb.
The difference might be that we don’t exaggerate as much as the Russians but you can understand why countries want to make their gear out to be the bestiest evah !
Same with the much vaunted SU-57 and SU-35. And still can’t achieve air superiority.
Or Russia will have learned some hard lessons with its conventional military so we keep an eye on their future development too !
It seems that the Russian army is at an point where they will be replacing all their equipment at once. T72, T80, T90A- T90M, T14- which is a bit of a different design to every other Russian tank ever. The Kurganets 25 will replace BMPs, BMDs and MTLBs whilst the Bumerang will replace BTRs. Again all of these new vehicles are very different from the old legacy soviet designs and they are going into production soon. The RuAF is at a similar point, yet it is not so dire, although replacements are still many years away. By 2030 if Russia… Read more »
With the amount of Russian hardware lost already and with sanctions , sanctions in which in past seemed to have affected Russia’s armed forces now given the mess the equipment’s in , the new range of tanks and armour APC where introduced in 2016 yet hardly many built probably due to cost so Russia would probably go for cheaper options like they have done , and the same goes with its jet fighters, Russia is a paper tiger considering this new army Russians had been so confident with is utter shite, they were meant to have learned their lessons from… Read more »
I totally agree!
Total agreement mate!
Absolutely, all I am seeing is lines of Gaz trucks, BMP2’s and BTR60’s with warmed over T90’s leading the charge … Most of this equipment probably fought in Afghanistan during the 1980’s! Tactics absolutely piss poor across the board. If the Russians think this is bad, just wait for the insurgency that follows, they will never successfully occupy Ukraine, it will be a running sore, with the bodies of their poor young conscripts coming home every day, until they pack up and leave…. I think the Ukrainian insurgency is going to be absolutely brutal, especially as it will be supplied… Read more »
“Putin’s gamble had failed miserably….”
I hope you’re right, the ego of the man might mean he will do the unthinkable and up the anti to a tactical nuke. While I don’t think he is ‘mad’, it seems quite probable to me that in the way of dictators everywhere, that he is so out of touch that he will do what it takes to ‘win’. I just hope that IF it goes down that route, others around him will do the necessary.
We can only hope Andy, I am sure there are back channels open through senior Russian military figures and diplomats, we can only hope if Putin ordered nuclear weapons realise, that order would be refused and he would be removed in a smooth regime change.
A Kremlin fight for power ( god forbid civil war) in Russia, would be extremely dangerous for us all….
Yes John, while there has been an element of collectively burying our heads in the sand, our little corner of the planet has been quite pleasant for the last 30 odd years mostly. Its all got very scary very quickly, we’re now catching up with other corners who have had a crappier time of it, maybe we’ll all start working together on the back of this. 🙏
Hi Andy , Putins Gamble that he sold too the Russian public on state TV saw it on YouTube was that the Ukrainian populous would rise up and welcome their Russian Liberators with open arms Whoops not open arms but Small arms big ego mistake on his part
I’ll believe the MiG-41 when I see it. Think about how long it took the Su-34 to enter service properly.
MIG 41 won’t be happening like 90% of other Russian claims.
You’re missing one important point. They can’t afford to…
That is the key point. ….
If they need to “replace all their equipment at once”, then economic factors will be key. The Russian economy is relatively small (12th in the world) and is shrinking. There is simply no way they can afford to replace a huge number of pieces of equipment on a like for like basis.
Disagree as most of this will end up as more chuff! Even if you get a bit of top of the range kit, you need to train the right people the right way to make it a capable and operational viable platform! Russia doesn’t spend much cash on training, as is being shown to the world on an almost hourly basis! You can have a Mig and SU whatever’s but give the pilots less than a hundred hours flying per year then they can take off, fly and land, that doesn’t make them combat capable! Russia, as ever, a few… Read more »
Russia has certainly been exposed for how bad their army is, ultimately we should have known that already as their budget is not much larger than ours yet on paper, their army could rival the US.
I wonder if they will be able to produce them now all these sanctions are in place. It would be foolish of the west to drop the sanctions until Putin is removed, Russia will always be held hostage to this madman.
I’m not 100% sure that in reality they could have afforded it even before the sanctions were introduced to be honest. Now with the sanctions it should be completely impossible for them to do. Taking the SU-57 as an example – First flew in 2010, and only four airframes have been delivered to Russian air force units. The T-14 is another prime example with something like 20 units delivered. All of this also calls into question the claims on how developed their hypersonic weapons’ are at this stage. Also the level of working order that their nuclear arsenal is being… Read more »
Hopefully not, it would be very bad if the Russians learn their ideas from Ukraine. Their situation on Ukraine has certainly exposed how shit their armed forces are.
This is typical of Russian vapourware. Commentators on this site seem to have an almost childlike belief in Russian equipment propaganda and the quantity of equipment no matter much of it is aged and obsolete.
That is not my view, I was simply stating the undeniable fact that the new Russian equipment, if funded properly (which seems unlikely now) looks very capable and very different to older Russian and Soviet equipment.
All that means absolutely Jack when they cannot even get LOGS right. They are running LOGS convoys in the same way that the Red Ball Express was run to supply Pattons 3rd Army in WW2.
They dont even have a DROPS system. DROPS came out of a BAOR requirement in the 1970s because MOD recognised then that using trucks was not sustainable in manpower or efficiency for getting stuff to those that needed it.
Very true Ukrainian tactics have been very impressive and effective and the Russians are paying very dearly for it.
They never learn and that’s a fact Georgia Chechens
Do you know what, I think the clues were there. Do you remember the ‘little green men’ in Crimea in 2014 – it latterly turned out these were SPETSNAZ; my abiding memory of them was the pictures were all of mostly fat, lost looking men, leaning on their rifles (with the barrels planted in the ground) – something that would get you in a world of pain in any armed forces anywhere in the world; and these guys are supposed to be elite. It is also ex-SPETSNAZ who make up Wagner, and in Syria upwards of 150 of them stood… Read more »
So if Putin hadn’t obliquely threatened to unleash Nuclear weapons which caused the West to forgo any previous MAD idealogies then you would have sent planes in?
Isn’t China rather too far away from our Continent to cause too many sleepless nights?
No. On a conventional basis, mitarily and economically, far more worried about China than Russia
Mike, I am still not getting this. How does China militarily threaten the UK, Europe or even NATO?
Might find this interesting Graham. The main photo is their existing base in Djibouti below the entrance to the Red Sea.
Thanks Pete. I had not heard of the Djibouti naval base, but they don’t seem to have threatened, harrassed or hindered NATO ships in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aden.
It does not worry me if China creates 1 or 2 naval bases in West Africa either.
https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3132471/chinas-naval-plans-africa-are-threat-atlantic-says-us-general
China’s missiles can reach Europe. NATO expressed concern about that, a couple of years ago.
Doesn’t mean they will fire them into Europe – you need political will + capability to create a true threat.
If we were seriously worried about that we would ring all our cities with ABM systems, and resurrect all those underground bunkers, the wailing sirens, UKWMO and the Royal Observor Corps.
i agree….i honestly believe if it wasn’t for the nukes nato would’ve intervened on day 3-4 and oblitterated the russian offense…. not exactly a good advert for non proliferation is it? 🙁
Putin said earlier today NONE of the troops in Ukraine are conscripts, nor will they be. They’re all professional soldiers according to him. I don’t know why he’d lie about that.
Semantics… If you “sign” a 1 year extension to your conscription contract you suddenly become a fully spammed up, snake eating, knife wielding, lean, mean russian killing machine.
I am sure that some of the experienced ex army operators on here ( Airborne I am looking at you!) will confirm that even in the UK Military someone with just 2 years experience knows next to nothing and is still learning.
Funny, colleague I work with an old family member of hers who refused to leave her house in Ukraine had a knock on the door last week. Was 2 Russian soldiers.
The old lady asked what they wanted, asked for cigarettes. She said she didnt smoke and asked what they are doing in Ukraine.
They said they didnt know, they had been in school last week then the following week found themselves in a battle in a foreign country. Both lads turned out to be 16.
Correct hes not using conscripts, hes using children!
Sadly not surprising.
Utterly shocking, no wonder was a mass exodus of Russian citizens from the country. Last thing people want are sons or family members being drafted into service with zero choice in the matter.
Pre-invasion, reports said that 130,000 Russian troops had assembled near the Ukrain border – are they all professionals?
It’s too early to make these claims as the Russian forces will regroup. What is very clear is the will to fight shown by the Ukrainian people and I’m sure the end game, when it comes, will be their victory. I remember the hype about British forces before the Falkland conflict and how we would make short work of the Argentine. Yes, we did win but the human and material costs were much higher than the public perception at the outset.
Maybe. UK land forces did make pretty short work of the Argentine forces with one hand tied behind their backs with Atlantic Converyor sinking so no heavy lift and piss poor general support and no constant in theatre air support. So we didn’t really own the skies fully until Stanley fell: Harrier had short legs. Bear in mind the UK land forces were marching faster than the Russians are driving at their best speed ATM…. I agree that RN surface fleet versus Argentine Airforce was a total mess. Some very bad designs, some poor kit, some poor tactics and some… Read more »
40 years next month SB – time flies.
Yep…time does fly…
and it will be 80 years from WW2…but still some people on here still try to compare WW2 tactics to modern day conflicts…
I disagree about the Falklands point. MoD estimates were for 1,000 British deaths. Were the materiel costs significant. Did the British public really think 255 fatalities was a huge figure for the largest air/land/sea conflict for decades?
Official numbers were probably expected, I do know the Bournemouth General Hospital was expecting high numbers of casualties. However, the public perception was a quick dominating conflict with the possibility of some losses. One thing it did expose was classic leadership cock ups and poor warship design and materials. I doubt even Whitehall believed we lose so many ships?
That’s odd. Why would Bournemouth Hospital have had concerns at high numbers of casualties from the Falklands Conflict? UK still had many military hositals up to the mid-late 90s. Bournemouth would not have been used.
I don’t recognise that there were many leadership cock-ups.
Totally agree the point about warship design.
Yes, my late farther in-law was moved out from a modern ward into a victorian hovel due to the Falkland war. Leaving troops on Gallahad when there was a clear threat, is one oversight we won’t forget. The quality of British forces stood out against all the odds when so much equipment went down on the Conveyer. In short, they were amazing and able to withstand horrendous weather conditions. What is abundantly clear, is the ability of the Ukrainian forces in the face of brutal Russian action. I liken the Argies to Russian troops who appear to be in Ukraine… Read more »
I don’t think they will regroup; they’ll just dial their artillery up to 11 and shell the crap out of Ukrainian cities.
Agreed, its going to be a flatten it then move forward policy.
Hopefully Ukraine has the required equipment and tactics in place to counter some of this.
Sick to death of British defence chiefs speaking to the media. They are supposed to be apolitical.
The briefing/interview will have been sanctioned.
What is the alternative?
Letting Sergey Lavrov own the post factual narrative?
I don’t love it either. But it is the way of the world.
Exactly. This is not Syria. Its simpler and logistically closer; the Ukrainians are better led, better trained and well armed. The Russians are fighting alone to topple a popular leader not as allied forces to prop up a tyrant. They do not have control of the air and if Poland donates its Migs may shortly feel what its like to be on the receiving end of enemy air superiority.
I dont think 30 donated Migs from Poland will turn the tide of the war but they will add to Russian high performance jets combat losses and prolong Ukranian resistance. So for those reasons fully support the donation.
Id go further and support NATO hosting the Ukranian airforce. Ignoring Putin’s threats.
If we dont deliver a no fly zone this is the least we could or should do.
I didn’t hear him say anything party political.
Yeah, it’s really annoying having the chief of the defence staff talking about defence matters isn’t it! You could be excused for thinking he actually knows what he’s talking about after serving 30 years in the military! Much better to have a politician who failed the girl guides selection to give his or her’s enlightened opinion isn’t it? Just who do these professional military people think they are!!!!
John,
We drum it into our serving soldiers not to speak to the press, in fact we teach them that on MATTs. Now the reason we do that is so not to allow them to be caught out by journalists. For example when I was based in Omagh, I got a call from my 2ic saying that HQNI wanted me to speak to the BBC, I refused because in my time there, I only ever saw one other lad in uniform and I didn’t want to dick myself. (dick as in Dicking)
Edit:
Delete::
I only ever saw one other lad in uniform and I didn’t want to dick myself. (dick as in Dicking)
Insert:
I only ever saw one other Asian lad in uniform and I didn’t want to dick myself. (dick as in Dicking)
He is part of the UK’s controlling group. In a way he is ‘talking his book’ in that he is trying to maximise the chance of getting more money for his empire by talking up the threat. Doing that is in the unwritten part of his job description.
About time it was written in ink, before it needs be written in blood. More money is needed for the military and if the chief of the defence staff isn’t lobbying for that, he should be fired!
Agreed, but it must be tough getting money out of a Chancellor.
John wrote:
“He is part of the UK’s controlling group”
John,
Exactly who told you that. Military personal are forbidden by law to take up politics ,
Can’t they speak to the media apolitically?
Just putting this out there….acting as a devil’s advocate – not suggesting this but consider the following: Russia now seems week and has committed such a large percentage of its total forces into Ukraine which have then been ground down. Is now a good time for a Ukraine-friendly force to intervene and bring a halt to Putin’s moves? If somebody like Poland – not as NATO – were to do this, as an individual country, would it deal a hammer blow to Putin? Also, feel sorry for the ordinary people of Russia who did not want this war as either… Read more »
It would effectively be the end of Ukraine as an independent country, at the mercy of their Russian dictator.
I doubt they would consider it a price worth paying.
In their position I’d rather fight to the death.
Would it? They were independent as of 24th February and hade no control in Crimea, Lushank, and Donbas.
For an end to war and giving up territory you either did not hold or where the populance do not want you I think it is worth it.
That’s not the demand though is it?
The demand is they effectively give up any control of their future security leaving them nothing more than a puppet to Moscow.
Any government will have to meet Moscow approval.
No military capability so Moscow has a gun to their heads if they step out of line.
Foreign policy must meet Moscow approval.
That is not any sort of “independence”.
Where are you getting all that from? Links please as the articles I saw just said what I wrote.
No, it is not, and I would not agree to those terms. I’m only referencing the territorial claims if they were the only demand, I would agree. They will never regain them anyway.
Who knows how this will pan out? If this get much worse for Russia then Putin may well get ejected in one way or another. I am seeing zero real Russian progress other than bombarding towns and cities. Most of their scrap metal hasn’t moved in nearly a week now. At the end of the day a new leader may have to sue for peace and the relaxation of sanctions. So it could well be that it is a set the clock back moment and blame it on the deadly departed Vlad The Mad. Just a thought? Blaming the dead… Read more »
The metal has moved…Search for the videos of Ukraine Farmers carting off Tanks, APCs, SAM systems…My particular favourite is the 3 guys in a motorcycle and sidecar combo ( I S**t you not!) who nicked a 120mm auto mortar and are seen laughing their heads off at what they have done as they drive down the road towing the mortar behind them…
This whole thing is crazy.
Sometimes you have to pinch yourself that you are not watching some elaborate military comedy routine.
Except that lots of people are getting killed: mostly Russian conscripts & civilians.
Nobody but nobody would have seen things panning out this way.
According to plan……..according to Mr V anyway?
My favourite video was the 5 or 6 chubby middle aged Ukrainian volunteers driving around on a captured Russian T90. The crew having just abandoned the vehicle. Possibly because of a lack of fuel. Ukranian put fuel into it then took it for a joy ride.
Laughed my socks off on that video.
I’m not sure you are right there. I’m having difficulty seeing how Putin wins militarily? If Ukraine holds their nerve despite the suffering and destruction Putin’s forces will be picked off gradually & a new democratic Government will be required before normal relations can resume. That Government will need to withdraw its forces from anywhere they are not wanted. That said Ukraine might well want to end this without further bloodshed which is their call. Would they trust Putin though?
In the 1991 referendum on support for the declaration of an independent Ukraine every region in including Crimea, Donbas and Luhansk voted in favour. The vote in Crimea was the weakest at between 50-60%. Subsequent referenda in 2014 have favoured breaking away from Kyiv with some form of self governance and/or link with Moscow. The event that probably lit the fuse was the 2018 ecumenical meeting in Istanbul of Orthodox churches in Ukraine ( Kyiv, Moscow and independent patriarchs) at which all 3 churches agreed to report into Kyiv. So Moscow lost a daughter Ukrainian church. The Orthodox church is… Read more »
Another great historical post from you, Paul. 👍
Thx. I agree with your perspective to an extent. But checkout wiki. Straightforward geography and economics also play. There’s an interesting table of Ukraine’s largest industrial companies. Over the last 10 years exports to Russia have plummeted while trade with the EU has blossomed. But the thing is that most of the industrial wealth now traded west not east is created in the region’s that Putin wants: Crimea, Donbas and Odessa, Kyiv…the east of the country. The high salary jobs are in the south east. Ceding the regions Putin has already occupied would hobble the economy of Ukraine as an… Read more »
Radakin is echoing Blinken who said this last week I think. It looks increasingly like the Ukrainian forces have halted the Russian advance of Kyiv by hitting supply trucks and AA batteries with their Turkish drones and advancing armoured vehicles with the ATMs. If the US and Poland can do a deal to transfer their Mig-29s the Russian column could be in big trouble.
The column is going nowhere. This was supposed to be a “3-4 days and we will be holding parades in Kiev ” operation. Those units have been sat there for over 10 days now . The sharp end will be out of fuel( it hasn’t moved), Batteries on vehicles will be flat, Food supplies will be an issue. The first 30Km is in effect an big “Falaise pocket” that can be reduced when ever the Ukrainians want to. The pocket is increasing south to north as more held up units dont get fuel and supplies. If it continues those russian… Read more »
Ideal situation, its a ton of supplies/support tied up not moving in a theater that they are clearly struggling with supplies anyways!
If Ukraine appeases them now with territory, guess what? After the Russians have been re-supplied and they re-group they will continue bombing civvies and lay waste to the rest of Ukraine. Followed by Moldova, Finland and Sweden while we faf around with sanctions – that deter nothing.
Depends if Russia withdrew or not. Either way, Russia’s military will continue to get its arse handed to it whenever they attack.
This tests to see if the demands are genuine.
If not, they have lost nothing as they did not have those territories last Thursday, and will in fact be able to resupply.
Making Sweden and Finland joining forces which Russia would have no chance against.
Will the Russiands have the combat power and political will to invade Moldova, Finland and Sweden?
Don’t know about Moldova but Sweden and Finland would be very hard to successfully and quickly invade.
Moldova would fall very quickly. Probably with little to no fighting. Georgia would fight but havent got any particularly impressive military forces to stop Russia.
Finland and Sweden. Err no. Russia would rapidly learn that these countries have capable well armed militaries with decent levels of force integration. Russia might be able to surpress the Finns but it would be massively costly and likely the West would intervene. Certainly Sweden and likely Norway would send forces to directly support the Finns.
Exactly, Sweden would simply reinforce Finland as if they didnt they would be next and they know it. Finland is an ideal defensive position and with the two working together Russia would hardly make a dent.
Sweden would be needed for the air force particularly as the Finns dont have a huge capability in this area but on the ground Russia would have no chance.
I think Georgia and Moldova should be rightly worried, mother Russia will come for them sooner or later, unless there is an abrupt turn around of Russian policy … Liker Putin’s brains splattered over a Kremlin wall… Finland and Sweden are an altogether different undertaking, they would both wipe the floor with the Russians … Finland had handed Russia it’s arse more than once after all. Interesting fact, ‘ if ‘ Putin and his head shed are charged with War Crimes, then no matter what the Russian government do, the course of action will be locked down …. The crippling… Read more »
Good points. All Countries on the continent should be learning lessons on how to resist a Russian invasion right now. Virtually the entire world have shunned Russia and many more will look elsewhere when they realise Russia is no use to them anymore.
How could the Ukraine believe any word or promise that spouts fro m Putins mouth! After all he isn’t actually invading Ukraine is he🙄
How do you see this playing out if Ukraine doesn’t compromise? Many commentators on here would just like to see Putin punished, but it’s ordinary people who are paying the price and will continue to if that is the sole aim. Put in needs a reason to send his forces home or many more will die before there is a conclusion. Even if there is it’s highly unlikely Ukraine would get Crimea or Donbas back.
You assume that Putin is open to reason? He has in his mad mind made up a ‘reason’ for this madness! He won’t stop till he is stopped.
I think Radakin’s right. And, even if Russia can win the war, can they win the peace? We should sanction ALL business that operate inside Russia. Anything less is pointless. This includes sanctioning western and Chinese companies. If those international corporations don’t play by our values, then they can ***k off. They don’t deserve access to our consumer markets.
I agree we have allowed too much money to be leveraged into the markets as it is .
COVID should have forced a re-evaluation of economic integration – it didn’t.
If this doesn’t then we may as well all start learning Mandarin – I won’t be holding my breath.
Yes, I thought that too. What do they lose giving up Crimea Donbas Lushank.
As long as the Russians withdraw.
If there is a next time, the Ukrainians will be waiting for them again.
What do they lose – you mean more than they previously lost when Russia was allowed to do what it wanted?
What about the next time & the time after that?
Appeasement is appeasment.
We are in danger of making this more complicated than it needs to be They lose the core of Ukraine industrial base and a significant part of the economy; which used to trade mostly with Russia but over recent years has switched it’s focus to the EU. This is about money. Putin is using the flim-flam historical links between the orthodox churches of Moscow and Kyiv as an excuse to expand the Russian economy at the expense of the EU. He is frightened that ethnic Russians in Ukraine who have family ties with Russia will undermine his regime by telling… Read more »
Spot on.
Russia is actually saying the whole Donbas and Lushank region not what existed before the 24/2 , they want to basically dble the size of those two regions. As for the Crimea I think Kyiv would probably agree to returning Krushchev gift back to Russia as it is a money pit .
But Kyiv will not agree anything because they don’t trust Putin .
Right, the whole Oblasts, not just the rebel held areas? Yes not so good.
I normally am behind you 100% but this time I have to say I think you are wrong, by giving up the Crimea and the Donbas that would give Putin a net gain. I would suggest “if” the Ukrainians do come out on top that they should say all the Russian speaking Ukrainians who wish to live under a Russian flag move to Russia., But that is a long way off at the moment as I do not think Old Putin is done just yet, I would go one further in saying that if Putin stays in power then this… Read more »
How do you propose those regions are returned to Ukraine? Russia won’t give them up voluntarily, not this regime anyway. Maybe in the distant future Russia would have a different mindset, but that seems rather hopeful at the moment.
That is why I said If Putin stays in power, if he steps down or is forced to step down then all cards are on the table and as reparation for the destruction that has been inflicted on the Ukraine by Russia then they should be forced out once and for all.
A very tricky situation. Even if Russia were to completely withdraw from Crimea/Donbas then you still have a hostile Ethnic Russian population left there. And then you would also have the problem of returning Ukrainian refugees, displaced by the war and with a potential axe to grind with anyone who speaks Russian. Cue another crisis where Russia really does have the excuse of protecting its own.
Any of the Ethnic Russians not willing to live under a Ukraine flag should be given the option to move to Russia not try to change a nations border because they what to live under a Russian government. There is a big Russian population in London, are we going to let Putin govern London as well.
I thought we had.
I’ve been wondering if there really has been a hostile ethnic Russian population in the separatist areas. I find it difficult to believe that most are significantly pro Moscow when compared to citizens in the rest of the Luhansk and Donetsk administrative regions who seemingly aren’t at all enthusiastic about their Russian “liberators.”
I speculate that the so called break away regions have been held by a relatively small cabal of ultra Russian nationalists supported by the Russian armed forces.
Maybe thats true. I think its safe to say that whatever the narrative was there (a peaceful wish for self determination?), it was hijacked by Putin in 2014 for his own political aims.
Some of the demos put up by the russian speaking Ukrainian populations against the russian army in those areas have been an eye opener.
Lots of people are no longer the silent majority siting around and having a quiet life without trouble or strife. They are now right in the faces (literally) of the russian Military Police units .
Whereas many on here seem to be quite happy to either let Ukraine battle it out to a conclusion, or risk WW3 with NATO intervening, no matter the cost.
If something is worth fighting for then stand strong and fight for it. If its not then don’t get into a fight over it at all.
Well said Marked. I think it’s important not to gloat or drool over all this death and carnage going on but Russia needs learn a very hard lesson for all Putin’s and his regimes aggrogance and spurious reasons. I sincerely hope Ukraine keeps hitting them hard, in fact bloody hard, they can wipe up that convoy out completely and even have a good chance to reclaim territories lost that it they would wants back, especially access to the Asov sea. If Russia gets defeated they maybe up for war damages, reparations and crimes against humanity. 💪 💪 to 🇺🇦 and… Read more »
Yep. I don’t post as much any more or even visit the site as often. No point, too many yee haaah boys with too little wisdom to see what they’re wishing for will only escalate things further.
Thank GOD they’re not in charge. Thank God.
I feel sorry for all those who have volunteered to go and fight and who don’t speak the language or even have no military experience. I hope the future is kind to them and they return home in one piece. For the others the future is pretty grim. As to escalation you are frighteningly right not just now but in the future. What is going to happen to the thousands of weapons that have been handed out randomly, already being used in gang warfare? Or the MANPADs left in the hands of very unhappy right wing fanatics? Or sold on… Read more »
Well I admire them, as we all do. I would not go, no experience seems suicide as they would be a liability. Ex regulars is a different story.
To be fair there are dangerous weapons left over from wars everywhere. I would not not supply Ukraine to help them defend themselves because of that.
Who are these right wing fanatics you mention?
Azov, Adair and the other Right Wing groups. They number about 50k and were incorporated into the military in 2015, if my memory serves me right, in an attempt to bring them under control. As a group they are rabidly anti Russian with a horrific history in Donbas. They are the key defenders in Kharkiv, Mariupol and Odessa who are prepared to die, apparently taking as many other souls as they can with them, in the knowledge that if the Russians catch them its jail or death. The Russians have the names of 400 or so that they have evidence… Read more »
I’ve seen photos of Azov with the swastika and making the Nazi salute, but I’d doubt they are any more than a small fringe. We all have our far right elements so I would not tar the lot with the same brush.
I wish that were so.
Well reading up on them it seems to be. A tiny part of Ukraine’s national guard and army that has/had far right views does not serve as an excuse for invasion and killing thousands of civilians.
Their foundation seems to be linked to Kharkiv Uktras, allied to Moscow ultras, far right Russians.
All nations have some in their midst.
Wrong on numbers troll and wrong on location. You need to get real, cut down on your Putins “anti Nazi” agenda as the international community knows it’s not true and any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion?
You sad Russkies love to push the anti Nazi agenda, while being Nazis yourself! I see your police tactics on anti war protests are going so well it would make the Gestapo and SS proud!
I wouldn’t bother Airborne, I dare say if he doesn’t make at least X number of posts on here every day, the secret police will cut his vodka allowance and tow his Lada away…..
He’s a pitiful figure mate……
I know I know, just can’t help it 😂👍!
Do you really think that Putin and his followers are left wing, or socialists, or communist?? They are gangster capitalists, stealing from ordinary Russian society, hiding their billions in offshore banks and shell companies. And luxury yachts. Putin’s hateful ideology is so obviously far right and his attempt to erase a country is no different to Hitler’s. It is Putin and Russia who bear the shame of being Nazi, not Ukraine.
Putin just built a £2 billion palace on the south coast. 80% of Russian GDP goes into the hands of just 400 individuals. Russians are suffering abject poverty when they should be a rich and prosperous country. 2nd largest oil exporter in the world. 1st largest gas exporter.
They are a corrupt regimen run by far right nationalists.
Russia needs a new revolution. Build some big guillotines and get rid of the lot. Start afresh.
Exactly. Those Hampstead mansions and megayachts moored in Monaco don’t exactly scream ‘Workers of the world unite !’
Hi JohninMK, there are far right groups in nearly every country in the world, including Russia. They are a minor part of a countries population and certainly not a legitimate pretext for war. Ukraine is free and democratic and should continue to have the right to determine its own future.
Russians are the gansters with guns NOT Ukraine’s ..
Agreed, gangster country made in the 90s, by gangster for gangsters!
You are quite correct -Putin has not thought this through.
No doubt many volunteers will be rendering humanitarian aid from the sufferings, carnage and loss bestowed upon the civilian population of the Ukraine.
LOL ” Someone hasn’t thought this through” yes Putin and his generals have not thought this through and most of the equipment that has been left and abandoned is Russian equipment has gone to the Ukraine army and its farmers ,and farmers are making sure it goes to the Ukraine army, not like Russian soldiers looting shops for food you do talk utter shite Ivan ask your boss to see if you can use VPN so you have access to twitter lol.
Still going on troll? Always a sneaky little comment or meaning in every post troll! Daniele is much more mature than I, as he will question you and expect an answer, while I on the other hand know your a Nazi troll who will not condemn Putins illegal invasion and you ignore this fact in every single post!
As you say to me “Yawn”
Again no condemnation, oh so very obvious!
And the volunteers who have gone with no military experience would seem to be in limited danger seeing how inept your Russkie mil is!
We can but hope.
Agreed. Giving up those territories is acknowledging reality. But will the nasty little man in the Kremlin be satisfied with that?
If he’s not, and he masses his forces again, the Ukrainians will be even more prepared and forewarned by NATO in exactly the same way as this time.
That’s assuming it’s a territory only settlement and not demilitirisation as the Kremlin wants which is unacceptable.
By the time the Russians have finished there will be no military infrastructure of any import left and they are well on the way to achieving that objective.
Very little military infrastructure of their own left either.
Perhaps you might mention a piece of Russian infrastructure that has been badly or even damaged. I will give you one Tochka hitting a Russian airfield as your starter for 10.
How about this…. By the time the invasion has ground to a halt, or stalemate or negotiations, the whole concept of the Russian military as a competent, professional, technologically advanced superpower will be exposed as a sham. Their much vaunted infrastructure being as hollow as those Matryoshka dolls.
Lets see. ..
Banks
Oil and Gas Companies
Transport …(train loads of civvie trucks, mini busses and coaches being moved forward to replace losses.)
Airlines
Electronics industry
Quick one …How are the Russian Troops getting paid this month? Apparently there are serious issues with actually having the cash to do it…
Your correct, by the time the Russians have finished there will be no military infrastructure left in the invasion force as it will all be destroyed, broke down or abandoned by the shite crews! This time your post is accurate, well done (oh dear will your post controller think the same?) better watch out he may think your going against your instructions and narrative troll boy!
Get your dictionary out and look up ‘infrastructure’.
Hard or soft? Both can be operated and destroyed by an invasion or defensive force! But as I have your attention my 73 year old ex pad brat any condemnation of Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine?
That aircraft carrier and dock afloat yet ?
They are going to repair it startting in 2022…I guess that its going to be put on hold(again!)
Pity. I used to enjoy seeing Kutzvnetsov sailing passed the UK being shadowed by modern NATO warships whilst in chuggs out thick black smoke visible from 15 miles away.
Next time it comes passed would love for an astute class to surface right next to it for a phot opportunity.
And the cost in lives for this destruction of an innocent country?
He would not answer me either, some days ago. I tried being “Mr nice” too.
Hi Daniele, I have been wading through so much Russian troll misinformation on Twitter lately. Gets very tiresome.
The price for Crimea, Donbas and Lushank should be that the rest of Ukraine is free to join NATO and/or EU then, without Russian interference.
Yes, any deal should work both ways. I’m against Ukraine joining NATO but the Russians should allow EU membership.
Which is probably why this is all moot!
Maybe Crimea could be recognized and seeded to Russia, could be enough for Russia, but only if the Ukraine can fight them to a standstill will they be in a strong enough negotiation position. I think the Donbas would be needed to help rebuild the country as I understand there are mineral reserves in those districts, particularly coal. A land swap for those in Crimea wanting to live in Ukraine and vis Versa for the Donbas region. I don’t think Putin will negotiate anyhow regardless of current losses and damage to the Russian economy.
Morning G. Yes, sadly I think your are right. So far the Ukrainians are doing that, I do worry once the ground firms up what will happen then if the Russians have more freedom of manoeuvre. Ukraine seems to be actually getting stronger. How much cohesion or supply will Russia’s army have by then, many of their units may have given up the ghost long before. He who laughs last laughs longest. It is great to see the Red Army exposed for what it is but they have an awful lot of firepower and I feel so many are writing… Read more »
Hi Daniele, the Russians do seem to be gaining ground at a huge cost. But still they are gaining ground, I think the next two weeks will be telling; if the Ukrainians can not just inflect losses but retake and hold territory then they would seem to have a better chance at some sort of victory. To my mind the Russians seem to be very wasteful with the logistics they have got, the heavy shelling of civilian targets, could be resource they could use against the Ukrainian armed forces. To be honest though I am hoping the Ukrainians can somehow… Read more »
Trying to work out what those remains are in the photo? SU-25, Frogfoot?
yes, SU-25.
Ukraine are fighting hard and brave but fortunate they are up.against a very poor army ..
On a serious note if NATO can get some decent planes in numbers to the Ukraine forces and keep the weapons arriving Russian forces in Ukraine will wave the white flag .
Time to fix Russia once and for all.
Admiral Radakin is correct. Several things could happen. Seems that Ivan has lost up to 10,000 people and reports today that a ship in the Black Sea has been successfully attacked by the Uks (hope it is a big fat assault ship). Various scenarios could play out: Russian troops might just pack up shop and walk home. Some already are but once attrition & the hopelessness of pacifying so many people becomes clear that may increase. Ukraine wins. Palace coup. Russian Generals must see the stupidity of all this. A coup would be just and give the Russian military an… Read more »
I see the Palace coup happening.
I don’t think a coup is going to happen, Putin is still a popular figure in the eyes of most of the public, and he pretty much has the political establishment under his control.
But if it does, then it will most likely be a “forced resignation due to ill health” rather than the poisoned drink method they used on Nalvany or the direct coup by the military.
I don’t mean the people will mount a coup. It will be embittered oligarchs, military men or rogue FSB.
Will Russia take a score draw ?
Trouble is if they did how long will it be until the second fixture- the home leg so to speak. I can only see Russia then revisitng their mistakes and having another go to replace the ignomy a honourable withdrawal would create. Also I can’t see NATO letting Ukraine join afterwards anyway (they would be MAD to (pun intended), so it would just leave Ukraine subsequently being armed to the teeth – and that wouldn’t bode well for future conflicts. Logically I can only see Russia wanting to try and press home now, unless it really gets too hot for… Read more »
Just watched this on You-Tube: well worth a butchers:
Thanks Farouk. Some distinct failures of simple arithmetic. 5000 casualities are not the total number. More like 200-300
Ukraine had already lost thousands of people, about 15,000, before this phase of the war started. Perhaps their objective isn’t to minimise deaths right now, but to achieve a lasting peace in the future for an autonomous Ukraine. A return to the pre-invasion status quo wouldn’t be enough for Putin and shouldn’t be enough for Ukraine either. It would lead to future bloodshed.
A rare good post there. Sadly those 15,000 of people you mention will include the 10-12,000 estimated to have been killed in Donbas by the shelling and mortaring of the Ukrainian Army since 2014. That that number had been rapidly rising over the past 6 weeks is one reason why this finally kicked off.
See, you just can’t help it can you, any post or reply you twist it to suit your agenda and propaganda. As a 73 year old from MK can’t you see anything wrong in Putins illegal invasion of Ukraine? Oh and I now see a new dimension to your post as to why this thing kicked off? You didn’t mention that over the last 3-4 weeks when you were saying Putin want going to invade and it was NATOs fault! Sigh troll outing does get easier the more they reply, as they get things wrong, and my my haven’t you… Read more »
John wrote:
“”A rare good post there. Sadly those 15,000 of people you mention will include the 10-12,000 estimated to have been killed in Donbas by the shelling and mortaring of the Ukrainian Army since 2014””
incorrect , the breakaway Donbass regions hosts a Government webpage which is based inside Russia and has a RU URL. They list the total deaths inside the breakaway donbass region since 2014 as of the 25th of Feb as 5059
The second part of the screen grab regards deaths inside the donbass region
Well done Farouk, better put then I could do. Thank you for the information.
On the other side of the coin, the Ukrainians hosted a webpage of their dead, as of the 23rd of Feb 2022! It stood at around the 4500 mark. The vast majority of those killed took place after the first Minsk agreement where the Ukraine pulled back its forces as it was supposed to, the separatists then decided to capitalise on that neutral ground by taking it, the counter attack by the Ukrainians pushed them out, which saw the Russians join in and supplying the rebels with AAA which resulted in the Ukrainian ending air support over the area due… Read more »
That’s not the reason at all. Putin decided to invade Ukraine to satisfy his own ego and return Ukraine to Russian influence.
Are you going to reply to Farouk then? My my you get sillier and so obvious by every single post!
Really??? And you actually believe that? 12000 deaths and not a single report of this to the ICC, UN or even in the press. Made up that number. You cant believe all the bullshit you are fed by Putins tin pot regimen. He is a new Hitler wanting “living room”. To kill that many peolle Ukraine would have to do something on the scale of what Russia is doing now. Western press have been on the line of control on and off for months. No significant shelling from Ukranian side whilst Russian and pro seperatist side had 2500 breaches of… Read more »
I can see them settling for what they have taken, but I can’t see Ukraine accepting this given how much of a bloody nose they have given Russia. I’d say give them Donbast, its going to be a pain for Ukraine with little to gain from keeping hostile territory, but I’d love to see them re-take Crimea….its perhaps the most scenic part of Ukraine!
A general announcement to those esteemed commenters here who often reply to my posts with the most erudite of comments.
I apologise if I am not picking up and replying to your posts but I seem to have dropped of this site’s excellent ‘post replied to’ system so I am only seeing said posts as I flick through.
No need to apologise, I no longer receive them either and I’m pretty sure I seen DM say the same.
It’s ok, if we want your opinion we can always watch George Galloway and the other RT acolytes.
I find it amazing that for months these kind of people fell hook, line and sinker for the official Russian narrative that there was no planned invasion, scoffing at how ridiculous an idea that was and accusing Western leaders of hysteria. Then 24th Feb came around and they moved seamlessly into the new Kremlin narrative that: Yes, there is a war but it is the fault of the Ukrainians, never mind what we were saying up until yesterday!
Thats RT and Russian trolls for you JohninMK is, was the same.
Total agenda all the way through and very useful fools, as Stalin used to call his supporters!
The main point from all this is simply that no matter what big ticket items the Russkie mil present to the world, it would seem that the vast majority of Russian formations operate shite kit, have limited or zero combined arms knowledge and still use a conscript Army (being extended for another 12 months after the initial 12 months doesn’t make a professional). All Putin has done is make his military look (and show) how weak and disjointed they are, ensured NATO and the West take another look at the alliance, and reaffirm various commitments and provide western nations a… Read more »
I really wish that was all he’d done. The whole killing people and warcrimes thing will have consequences too (beyond making normal people feel sick to the stomach). I can’t see how he can be allowed to walk this back.
Mate, what russian kit equipped regular armed force since Viet Nam has done anything against western equipped militarys?
Even in Viet Nam Western Air power owned the sky despite the biggest SAM defences ever seen.
Arab Israeli Wars? Russian kit and tactics where overcome by a smaller more professional army using western kit.
Gulf Wars x 2? Absolutely hammered it to scrap.
Nobody is going to want (or be able to ) buy russian kit.
Was it Viet Nam – where the Mig first appeared & owned the skies – or wasthat The Korean War . Well until the Sabre appeared (again I think!)
Not that clear cut, the Mig15 had an initial advantage of captured German engineering staff and the UK donating RR engine technology, (big round of applause to the Labour government of the day)! Tactics changed and the North Koreans had their ass handed to it. In Vietnam, US equipment was superior, but tactics failed to take into account dealing with highly agile point defence fighters, like the Mig 19 and 21. An over reliance on tactics to defeat Soviet Bombers and immature missile technology that didn’t quite meet up with the hype. Tactics and technology changed and the North Vietnamese… Read more »
Although American tactics did rapidly improve – see the air battles in 67-68 and linebacker in May – Oct 72. I note your apt summaty – which puts it in a nutshell “the North Vietnamese Airforce had its ass handed to it.
But at least the Ukrainian farmers and scrap metal industry are having a bit of a time of it! Only one owner, for 35 years, not many miles on the clock, although previous owner hasn’t any service history and is untraceable as have ran away!!!!
Another Major General, Vitaly Gerasimov, has been reported KIA on the Khiv front, no doubt waving his arms around trying to get his forces moving from the mud. Well it was your plan…
Rest in pieces you scum bag.
They are now running short of divisional commanders as well as ammunition, food, fuel and moral.
Yes Rob another Senior Russian Officer bites Ukrainian mud did he fall too Enemy Action or failure to take his objective ? I wonder
Putin should take a leaf from history – no shortage of despots being “taken care of” by their own leadership mates. We can start with Julius Caesar and in more recent times Malenkov who preceded Kurschev .
Its what happens after Russia inevitably flattens Ukraine at huge cost in terms of civillisn lives lost, infrastructure destroyed and a population in the millions left to feed, house, clothe and keep warm in winter.
The inevitable losses to Russia in terms of military hardware, smart munitions, aircraft, helos and crucial their best “professional” military personnel is going to mean Russian occupation of Ukraine will have to be brutal and commit mass atrocities to quell the inevitable insurgency.
One things for sure the longer Ukraine remains militarily defiant and fighting the worse Russia’s conduct of the war will become.
Indeed, at the moment though the Ukrainians seem hell bent at winning with no compromise. You have to admire them, they are standing up to be counted. If they tough it out I think there is a real possibility of them driving Russia out one way or another. It’s just at what cost in terms of human lives, infrastructure etc. I just hope the Russians have enough of this and their leader before long.
Russian forces might be having trouble right now, but they will be learning and at the end of this their military will have a great deal more experience with large scale, Joint Ops than we currently do. Let’s hope someone else is leading Russia by the time this comes to pass…
Why? Is that why your interested on the subject matter? Jimmy S fan club member? Oh dear!
Back at the hight of the Cold War, there used to be a saying about the Russians: “Quantity Has A Quality All Of It’s Own”
It seems they no longer have the quantities for this to hold true, and at every level, thier quality has turned out to be shocking…
I think the only aspect of the Russian forces deployed on this operation that would seriously worry NATO is their air defences systems…They are also probably one of the reasons those Polish Mig 29 have not been donated….