In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government say that it has been “working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks”.
Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemned Iran’s, pledging the UK would “continue to stand up for Israel’s security”.
Israel’s Channel 12 have reported that US and UK fighter jets shot down Iranian drones near the Syria-Iraq border this morning.
“I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel. These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilising the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard. The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed.”
Great. Time to dig a bunker and get to Tesco before there’s a run on toilet rolls.
Sod the bunker everyone knows the key to any survival situation is always the toilet rolls….
My wife’s already been, now I’ve got nowhere to put all my fishing gear 😂
Or maybe time to understand why F16 will be more than useful to Ukraine?
So useful that I tear my hair out wondering why the hell the US isn’t sending 100 or so to Ukraine.
Quite.
USA has plenty in stock that are gradually being replaced.
Or sent them two years ago like they asked?
100 F-16s are basically a rounding error for the US Air Force. They’d never miss them.
It’s time that all Western governments stopped supplying Ukraine to not lose and started equipping them to win.
We’re talking of increasing our artillery shell production eightfold; at least half of this increased amount should go to Ukraine as soon as it’s produced.
Agree.
I think the Ukrainians would be happy to take them from the boneyard and rebuild.
I watched a Lloyd Carroll /Justin Bronk video on the value of the F16 to Ukraine, JB said that to operate a reasonable force of 200 F16’s it would take them 5 years minimum. People underestimate the amount of work needed to integrate and train on them. Even the Ukrainians have said that they are not really relevant now.
I’m not sure that is totally true.
It all depends on the weapons and electronics fit for the F16’s.
If they had 200 they would have a far larger deployable air force than Russia.
Let’s put it this way – the numbers of Soviet junk they had are useful for launching Storm Shadow and other tasks. F16 enables precision bombing.
Let’s be clear, this is an act of war by Iran encouraged by Putin when will the west learn?
The media are frightened of calling this aggression what it patently is – Israel will respond…… Meanwhile UK PM refuses to increase defence spending against a background of declining capability and force levels
And the armed forces level decreases yet again per annum because it costs to much were the laughing stock of NATO for our number of troops levels
Got any examples of other NATO members laughing at us?
Many NATO members made similar decreases post Cold War for example the Belgian Army has no MBTs and the Dutch only have 18 Leopards leased from Germany.
Right that’s the first week of any war sorted then.
It’s a western world malaise not just a UK one..we are actually sadly one of the more prepared ( even if we have massive holes).
I’ve been thinking a lot about the why the west has been unable to see the risk..as although the stupid “end of history and last man” had a lot to do with the post Cold War decline…it does not answer the question why did western nations not respond when the geopolitical risks changes from around 2010…and the only thing I can really find is NATO Itself..interestingly I think the fact that the alliance is so overwhelming in its size and power that the individual components forget they had to put significant effort into defending themselves…even the US defence budget has slipped below 3%..and it did this at the point the geopolitical risks started going through the roof…the same with the UK defence budget…we actually spent more on defence as a proportion of GDP during the times of pretty much no significant risk 1992-2010 ( the war on terror was never an existential risk) than we did when the risks started going through the roof after 2010 ( we moved from 2.5% GDP to 2% GDP)….why is it them that NATO nation felt during a time of heightening risk of a war, that contained an element of existential risk that it wssnappropriate to spend what is essentially an inadequate amount on defence ( 2%) or less…the only answer is NATO itself.
Fortuitously we have engaged with R&D even if it was actually a reaction to various bit of US legislation like ITAR and FMS that made us go independent…..Sea Ceptor, Sea Viper (OK with others), Dragon Fire and loads of other tech too.
We are lucky that 13 frigates did get ordered. We are lucky that 2 x QEC are real. We are lucky that 5 x T45 will soon all be usable again. We are lucky that we actually have a useful number of F35B (not enough)
The bigger issue is getting production lines, and I include supply chain in that, rolling on a war footing as we urgently need weapons stores to be bursting full.
The biggest issue of all is people and the inability of government to properly place a value on military people when low(er) rank military salaries have been salami sliced for years below inflation.
I am struggling to understand why it has taken over two years for the penny to drop in UK government circles that this war thing is not going away and that Putin and his, now, ring leader/puppet master Xi want as many other nations and groupings sucked into this as possible whilst China can sit on the side lines watching and learning and when appropriate testing some new tech against our tech.
Indeed, it seems to me that a major war between the west and anti western powers is now inevitable..the only question left to answer is the size and scope of that war…with the minimum scope being a regional war in the Middle East, an ongoing war in Ukraine followed by a later war for Taiwan ( essentially a number of fires independent of each other and contained in a regional sense) and the maximum scope being war that includes unrestricted warfare with Russia and allies in Eastern Europe, Iran and allies in the Middle East and china and North Korea in the western pacific region all at the same time ( essentially a world war three, in the same geostrategic sense as world war 2 was fought…a long global war with many multiple powers across all regions of the globe ) .
You are right from the point of view of the RN things are relatively healthy….if we consider 2027 to be a major crunch point ( china does not seem to be courting a war before this point) we will have all the Asutes commissioned ( so our SSN readiness and availability should be at its best for a decade). The RN should have some of the T31s in commission as well as 2 of the T26s…
my personal view is one thing the RN and HMG could do is keep the 10 T23s that have had Mid life refits running longer into the danger point that is 2027…so for 2027-2028 we could have active
10 T23s
2 T26s
3-4 T31s
6 T T45
This would mean HMG needing to put in place an expensive workforce strategy to ensure the crews needed for this in 2027…but it would be a meaningful and significant response to china..
so we can at a push keep 20+ escorts around for the danger period…but as you say staffing is the issue and recruitment and retention need significantly to be invested in…even getting older experienced people back.
The other big area that needs looking at is the fast jet squadron numbers…we need to build that up…the UK really should have 12 fast jet squadrons…4 f35 and 8 typhoon.
amphibious capability needs to be protected…we need to be able to but an amphibious brigade anywhere and any ally that needs it..as well as an air mobile brigade…
also ensure we have the numbers in the army to deploy an armoured division in Europe…( not sure if we will ever need an armoured division for the rest of the world..but we need one for Europe).
These are all things the government need to come out and commit to very publicly..as deterrent only works if your serious and show your serious by actions…and saying “we may spend this” or “want to spend that” or “hope to keep this” etc etc shows a profound level of weakness….
Agreed. That is the problem with 2.5 % this and that, it goes on non conventional assets. We need to commit to a force level and build to it.
This whole % of GDP thing is futile though….. Too much is soaked up by the Elite and Corrupt. Any increase will just exacerbate this ….. What we actually need is Realistic and honest Value For Money…. Tax payers are not and should never be considered as cash Cows for the Elites.
Nonsense. We have a capitalist system in this country. If you invest your hard earned money in something and it is successful you get a profit which pays most peoples pensions. Private companies have been driving the provision of weapons for this country for a looong time and it has got us out of many scrapes. If someone invents something and makes some profit I say good for them. They are taking a risk and hopefully getting a reward.
Indeed, I think the mistake is that everything is treasury lead…what we need is a capacity and capability lead system…agree what we need and then find a way to pay for it in a sustainable way…the really is the defence review in 1998 was essentially a baseline for what capacity was needed in a stable world…that should have been the baseline up until 2010-14 ( which had increased risk and a possible increase in capability)..with another review post 2022 for the pre war world…instead we have had decades of budget lead reviews that ignored the actual requirements…
We need to establish what capabilities we need for proper defence based on a realistic threat analysis not one written to justify current spend of about 2% of GDP.. The Government should work to fund the right capabilities not crowing about 2% or 2.5% of GDP (which included military pensions)..
hhm not sure why my post turned blue ?
Morning not sure about the blue , but what you says sounds right 👍
😆
A study of a French officer showed that a surge from 2% of GDP to 4% of GDP allowed on defense will raise number of soldiers and weapons from 1 to 4. So doubling the amount quadruple the force.
For numbers of reservists, we are talking of the Norwegian model, in which the best 10% of a population will have access to the army and will receive benefit in their civilian life afterward.
Makes perfect sense to me: armed forces state their force level requirements, MoD proposes a budget to support that, and the Treasury finds the money.
“ my personal view is one thing the RN and HMG could do is keep the 10 T23s that have had Mid life refits running longer into the danger point that is 2027…so for 2027-2028 we could have active”
I honestly think they will be falling apart by then.
You might eek a few very expensive years out of them.
I’d be genuinely concerned about their BDR state at over 2x planned hull life.
I think we should pass a law making illegal to scrap anything before 2027.
I would even put the last two Trafalgar class that were laid up on the list of things to keep.
I doubt the old T boats are nuclear certifiable anymore?
The parts supply chain will have been shut down as well as a few other things.
The one thing you don’t mess with is nuclear at sea.
I think we should go further; make it illegal to scrap a platform without a replacement being brought into service simultaneously.
And if it’s not a one-for-one replacement, e.g. a reduction in numbers, that needs to be justified.
It’s time the budget started being tailored to required capability, rather than MoD and forces always being beholden to accountants.
Makes sense – GBAD expansion is needed. Brize and Lossie are centres of gravity ie we’re screwed if they’re taken out and so they plus AKI need Sky Sabre asap.
To say nothing of Cyprus, Gib, Falklands now Argentina are gaining F16 – the Gaps are clearly visible EW, ECCM, DEW etc
Well said 👍
And the Naval, sub, fuel and cargo ports, radar installations, power facilities, the whole bloody country basically! And additional VSHORAD for the Army.
Not sure how covered 🇦🇺 is down here as it’s a huge country! I think the government is trying to deal with things diplomatically first!
Absolutely it’s ridiculous we don’t have GBAD , just think 300 Missiles and drones heading towards UK 😕 . Ok us Brits ,US and French and Jordan help out .But it shows at least Israel had a fighting chance with there GBAD system in place. God help us 😕 🇬🇧
Weapons Brimstone, ASRAAM, captor, METEOR, SPEAR CAP3, Storm Shadow, Martlet, etc all good we have holes ARM EW GDAB which need to be filled – Steel manufacturing and flexible drone manufacturing are needed. Our forces recruitment needs sorting Shapps will fail at this – accommodation for personnel needs sorting these are not difficult things
SB you are suggesting we jump to a war footing or are you simply suggesting our peacetime force should be enhanced?
So, we’ve got to the point where the navy has no ships, THE RAF doesn’t have enough front line squadrons, the army doesn’t 5 enough soldiers. The nightmare scenario is upon us and we’re already f*cked.
Err, no we are not.
But we aren’t good mate and that’s for sure .
Wasn’t the principal rationale for the decreased GDP percentage defence budget from 2010 to the present day the lingering effects of 2008 financial crisis? That, and defence has very few political advocates, until hostilities commence. 🤔
Brics is a big challenge. The pivotal states are in Africa, South America and Middle East. Time to choose is closing. Let’s consider Russia, Iran, China and North Korea as group. They are rather big, have energy and technology.
Issue is political as well as military. For the military side, technology is ok, but volume of Ammo is inadequate.
Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are the true axis of evil.
We took our eyes massively off the ball with this 20-year War on Terror.
Let’s say that our interests do not align. If you enter such a rethoric, you will end up with nothing else than destruction.
What do we want to achieve, to keep, that this group of country is preventing us to get, individually or collectively? Finding the answer will be probably the right way to solve this problem.
That’s a complete non-answer, right there.
The fact is that all 4 countries have shown themselves to be, at best, adversarial to us and our allies.
In some cases e.g. Russia, Iran, they are overt threats.
I’m not saying we should declare war on them, but we need to stop acting as if they want to be friends, because they don’t. We need to treat them with caution and prepare for possible conflict with them. It won’t be one that we start, but we need to be prepared for it.
Totally agree regarding being ready to wage a war with them and not being the first to shoot. But if we confront them, what result do we really want in the end? A regime change? A country dismantled? I am not asking a rethorical question.
What result we want in the end is for them to back down. If it comes to a fight we want them to lose the war, obviously. They need to have their asses handed to them enough to pull their surviving forces back and know not to pull this crap again.
In terms of a regime change? In Putin’s case that’ll happen in the next 10-20 years anyway, no matter what. He’s 71 or 72 now and won’t live forever.
In terms of dismantling the country: definitely not – not in the case of Russia, at least. That would result in China gobbling up the eastern part and those in the middle potentially selling nukes or nuclear materials to anyone with the cash.
The ideal would be that they learn the error of their ways and grow up to get along with their neighbours, but since that’ll never happen, just smashing then in the event of war, smashing their forces to prevent them or the next guy from even thinking about trying this again.
Sure, so if Russia back off, we want ie Ukraine to have the possibility to join our sphere of influence, be it NATO or EU. I am French, I am fine with this outcome. What I would not want is to have a problem like the one endured by USA in Irak or USSR in Poland. I would be pleased to have Ukraine in Europe, as long as we don’t have to pay Billions every year for a force that would not be welcome. This look like Metternich dilemma with Austrian forces in Northern Italy 1820’s. They gradually became seen as occupying forces. So he had to raise taxes to increase security and calm things down, which led to more discontent so more taxes etc… If we are to intervene, let’s do it quickly and ensure the country can sustain itself when we leave. I believe will be there more and more with you. Let’s make it swift and smart.
If Ukraine joined NATO and the EU then there’d be no need to have tens of thousands of troops there for a long time, and it would be a completely different situation in Ukraine compared to Iraq or Afghanistan; NATO troops would be welcome in Ukraine. There wouldn’t be a policing action or anything like that and we wouldn’t be occupying the country.
At most, a base or two would be set up in Ukraine with NATO troops working jointly with the Ukrainian Army, who would now be part of NATO. This would be no different to NATO bases in Poland, Romania, or any of the Baltic States.
For example, I imagine that Sevastapol would become a NATO port for the Black Sea; which sends a message to Russia that Crimea is and will forever be a part of Ukraine.
This implies factors that I do not master. US presence is in general well perceived. But we may have to consider no US presence in this case as US forces are overstretched. So the perception of security and common belonging should be carefully analyzed. If French or British or German troups are to be stationed there, among Ukrainians, we could find cultural gaps, differences, that may be overlooked now, but that will have to be managed. Once the French Army went to Spain to restore the King. Guess what, 50% of Spanish disliked it. When you think your protector has an head and muscles, it works quite well. If not, story may be different, with doubts. In the case of the European pillar of NATO, who can say the leadership is well assured, with 30 armies. In WW1, it took 4 years of brutal fighting to setup a unified command. In WW2, command was never really unified, 2 blocs emerged. In this case, the leadership issue is not a joke at all. Just thinking loudly, not pretending to hold any kind of truth. Thank you for sharing your thoughts with me.
“Once the French Army went to Spain to restore the King. Guess what, 50% of Spanish disliked it.”
Yeah… That was over 200 years ago, so not all that relevant, really. Also, the mission would be completely different.
NATO troops in Ukraine, as a NATO member itself, would be more like US troops in South Korea, or as I said, like NATO troops in Poland, Romania etc. Not an occupying army, not a peacekeeping force, but a few thousand troops engaging in occasional exercises with Ukrainian troops.
Basically not much difference from NATO troops posted to anywhere else during peacetime; they’ll do exercises with local troops and otherwise just do normal drills and drink local beer.
Cultural issues would be minimal to negligent.
Please share who in NATO is laughing at us.
The US
When was this? Share a link.
How many other NATO members were in the skies over the Middle East last night ?
Laughing stock? Seriously. You probably have little to no idea of our military capabilities beyond “how many” with a comment like that.
Very true, one thing about the UK military, it has limited numbers but equipment is actually used and therefore does work. Our typhoons have probably flown more hours and dropped more ordnance the all of the other partners put together.
It’s something I constantly flag here. Despite the endless lamenting/moaning/comments on cuts, no one should question our militaries training, professionalism, and modern kit ( in many, many areas)
We are capable of night 1 ops alongside the US, in many areas. Many others are not, or not trusted.
Most of them don’t have a decent enough knowledge to comments on anything defence related.
At best they parrot what they have seen on YouTube (cause they can’t read) from some US fanboy, Russian Bots or Indian Trolls.
Yesterday national interest magazine ran a story on Astute saying that the best nuclear submarine in the world (might not be American) like it’s some revelation that not everything from the US is automatically best in the world and shock horror some other nation might actually make stuff that’s actually pretty good.
It’s honestly getting embarrassing, it’s like the early 2000’s and team America again. Same fan boys seem to have little comment that good men are dying on the front lines of Ukraine now because someone in Congress thought it would be funny to hold back ammunition that they already promised to deliver to them and some how this is getting their own back on Europe because that’s what being in an alliance is all about getting your own back on your allies for some imagined slight from the past.
Say what you want about the UK and our government but there is barely a sliver of policy gap between any party at Westminster from the Tories to the SNP about sending weapons and ammunition to Ukraine.
The UK has been leading this effort since 2014 without crawing about it because that’s how Geo politics is suppose to work.
1917, 1941… it is not like we are not used to this.
I dont think anyone does, not on here – well no one worth reading anyway .
It’s just a shame -even a travesty- that this ‘hides’ the shortfalls in may areas.
Just think what would be possisble if the government/treasury commitment matched the commitment on the ground.
Why are you just referring to RAF I’m referring to the army
The service you’re referring to is not really relevan. You’ve come on this site, which is chock full of SMEs and knowledgeable posters, and within just 5 posts used the words “laughing stock” about a part of HM forces, without any context or variables such as training, logistics, know how professionalism, kit, and a whole lot else that does nor show the army as a laughing stock.
Too small, yes. Far too small. Though I myself prioritise the RN and the RAF.
That’s fine, but expect others to give a counter opinion and shoot you down with descriptions like that.
Russian Trolls on over time last night mate 😀
Quite possibly mate.
We punch above our weight DM ,and with the Resources we have I very much doubt any body el else could do the same .Shows how professional our forces are .But the US do have have a point ,we must put more in the Defence pot now not tomorrow. No doubt you agree 🍺
For sure. All the forces are too small.
That is due to other “defence” things in the budget that do not directly impact conventional force numbers.
Morning DM ,he’s hoping government wake ⏰ up and sort things out .After seeing the news at the weekend GBAD maybe a good start . 👍
that’s a great point Daniele. Those currently in the UK armed forces are the best of their generation. I salute and thank them.
Obviously your referring to airspace policing not boots on the ground your opinion is nothing to which I was referring to so if we’re well in stock of troops can you tell me how many do we have in total just a clue it’s less than 800,000
800,000?
You mean 80,000. Actually around 73K now.
Thank you, I don’t need no clues from you at what this nations ORBAT or force level is.
I’ve agreed elsewhere the military, and the army, is too small.
I’ve also pointed out on numerous occasions that size alone is not the be all and end all.
Care to quote an example of those other Nato nations?
It’s an act of war against Israel not the UK and it’s got f**k all to do with Putin.
true..I don’t think Russia has much influence over Iran…Syria yes..Iran no….china possibly, but I don’t think china really wants this happening in the Middle East now…china has its own timeline for challenging the west and its probably 4-5 years away yet.
And we were in Syrian airspace last light shooting down Iranian drones.
I suppose the question is was it from the Syrian government, in which case we have another worrying path of confrontation with Russian ( like we really need another) or was it Iranian proxies operating in Syria ( it’s not like the Assad regime has full sovereignty over all of Syria).
And Nicholas Drummond mentioned Serbia and Kosovo possibly flaring up again. Wonder who’s behind that? Interestingly, Serbia is also ordering 12 Rafales which seems to be selling very well.
Indeed…it does not help that Hungary is actually a Russian ally..who is feeding of the EU…I suspect if Ukraine fell, Hungary would soon after join a formal alliance with Russia and the Putin has a strait line to the Balkans and support to Serbia…..placing a dagger in the heart of NATOs geopolitically weakest area.
I would disagree with that to a certain degree – Russia is still a ‘big boy’ in that anti west enviroment – they are in reality the only one that has actually fronted up- and as sure have some influence over Iran – historically more than China,
China may start doing more that posturing – or it may decide its just not worth the end game- as you say its a while away before those cards are shown.
to be honest I think Iran sees itself as equal to Russia and it’s unlikely to do anything it does not want to do in its own interests..infact at preset it’s Russia going to Iran and asking for weapons and support….where as there is good evidence china has been throwing a lot at Iran and some other Middle Eastern countries …there is good intel to show that the Ballistic missiles coming out of Iran are based on Chinese knowhow…the anti ship ballistic missiles is not something that Iran would have come up with on its own..also the hidden ballistic missile silos that were used against attacks on the U.S. bases…that’s a lot of know how and as far as anyone can tell the only anti western nation doing a lot of work in hidden ballistic missile silos is china ( it’s apparently quite an engineering feat to make a ballistic missile silo that the west cannot fine until it’s fired).
It is also worth remembering that Iran is a member of the Shanghai cooperation forum and a longtime ally on the floor of the UN.
I think China is ok with this. The strategy is the 1000 wounds. Step by step they are going into the mind of US soldiers, weakening their resolve by multiplication of engagements. I have a doubt. I am not sure China believes in the decisive battle. They prefer go game. Look how they are taking over the Pacific Ocean: Island by Island. Samoa, Solomon etc. Unnoticed, step by step strangling the prey. Iran attacks? A wonderful occupation for US forces and missiles inventory… The most important is to regain initiative with our friends, to create summits and new ties will preparing for war.
I think the opposite is true. China’s developments have not gone unnoticed. Maybe more unaddressed earlier in the piece. People and nations affected by China’s intrusions see things first hand and I think this actually steels their resolve when they want to defend their sovereign rights. I think the West might have more back bone than we give it credit for and it will reassert itself in defence of freedom, law and fairness, democracy and human rights and imperfect as it is.
Yes, perhaps. I think lately, the US strategy has been very smart: putting every ally in front of their responsibility. it is wise given the fact that production capacity is no so much in western hands anymore and USA cannot out produce China and Russia by itself. Though, we can all see signs of lack of confidence in US and allies all alike. This can lead to 2 mutually excluding outcomes: submission or resolve. We see growing signs of resolve, but this issue is far from settled yet, even in Europe.
Let’s put it in other terms: what would be the cost to secure the eastern border of Europe? What would we gain from it? What would we loose from it. Then, compute what people really think in these Eastern Europe countries, what they are ready to endure, what they can finance. The whole picture will seem clearer and clearer. Poland is ready to defend itself, baltics states as well. Romania, Bulgaria, may be, but we don’t know yet.
Let’s be clear, bombing another country’s embassy is an act of war. Its remarkable how people including Cameron gloss over that little detail. This is the first time Iran has attacked directly. Personally I think we should have zero to do with this conflict. At its heart is religion and that is a non resolvable issue. The Iranian regime is unpleasant and so is the current Israeli regime. Neither deserves our support. As for defence spending, that’s been in decline for decades and it will take decades to increase it. The current tax burden will not allow any increase. Labour won’t increase it either, if they get elected.
Another domino falls.
I keep seeing people make this comment on the internet but I must be missing something – what do you mean?
Escalation into something bigger.
Much, much bigger than anyone might be compared to contemplate
There more potential flashpoints around the world and it could all go mental at anytime soon. Israel is loose cannon and the fact that it has the bomb should all th enemy nations to decide to repeat the war when Syria, Egypt, Jordan launched a sudden joint attack on , and if pull turns tpusjh the israel would have no problem with going nuclear is the rapture before armageddon.h3re?
If you place dominos on their ends with a small gap between if one falls in the direction of the other pieces then, that is known as the ‘Domino Effect’. A potential fatal reaction as we may witness in the Middle East this coming week? We must keep one eye on the international money markets to see if the World is set for fiscal chaos, just when things looked like picking up again!
Not just the middle east, Taiwan, Korea, the whole bloody planet is on the edge the rapture is here and just around the corner is Armageddon.
My medication please nurse.😁
The Bible says that the world’s armies will meet and fight to the death on Mount ? in the Middle East, which sounds rather plausible considering what is currently afoot.
It helps not to take the Bible literally. Israel were acting illegally when they struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus. They made a conscious decision to provoke retaliation by Iran so as to draw them out into the open. I’m not saying I’m a fan of Netanyahu nor am I in favour of starting WW3 but I do understand why Israel acted as they did. Iran has been getting away with taking the michael for too long.
Much of what Iran did last night was to calm the unrest at home over the Damascus bombing. I believe Israel will not respond like it normally does to appease Washington. The relationship has been under strain in recent weeks and by holding back would help to reestablish normal relationships again. Israel needs to concentrate its efforts on Gaza and not have to split its efforts with other foes. We will have to wait and see but much water needs to be poured on this current fire.
Ummm…er…pardon? “Taking the Michael” is an unfamiliar expression on this side of
the Pond. Explanation, please. 🤔😳
I’m trying to be polite…taking the @&ss
Meggido.
Study US foreign policy in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s why they went into Vietnam, the thinking was that if you allow one country to go communist the next domino will follow.
And history demonstrated it was a misplaced notion. The circumstances of each country is unique. The domino effect is generally discounted by historians now and is utterly misplaced as a term in this crisis.
that is true if you only consider the domino effect in regards to Us anti communist policy in the 50-60s , Nick yiu are looking at the Domino effect as related to US foreign policy around the 1950-1960s as related to the spread of communism…in this if one nation falls to communism then the neighbouring nations will have an increased risk of falling to communism…but nations are not dominos and what happens to one nation many or many not impact on its neighbours as each nation is different and just because Vietnam fell to communism did not mean the entire south East Asian region fell…
in this case I suspect Maurice was using it as an example of domino effect and escalation of an accident ( out of control geopolitical events often cascade in the same way as an accident)…this is not discredited and is known..one domino falls and creates a cascading events…it’s as valid in geopolitics as it is in a major incident on a motorway or a run away event in a chemical plant….it’s something risk managers and those that manager complex risks always need to consider…one failure in a system begets another set of failures ( it’s generally how we die).
I can see that. I’ve normally seen that called cascade effect because domino is usually tied to the cold War theory. But fair enough.
History exists to remind mankind of repeating the mistakes of the past.
It doesn’t do any such thing and given the unique nature of each era history rarely demonstrates much in terms of solving or avoiding current problems, it isn’t a science with predictive powers. History is where we create a narrative that examines and analyses past events, in the search for motive, cause and explanation. History is an academic pursuit with its own end and is very much misused if people think that it has current preventative abilities.
True, but human nature is not so different and societies are made up of human beings, you put them under similar stressors and they tend to end up acting in the same semi predictable ways…competing for resources in an aggressive way, reacting to fear or threat with violence…history does not so much repeat itself as humans tend to react in a human way when put under similar stressors.
True enough though that is more the realm of politics, sociology and psychology (with history lending context).
The only lesson really is that you must maintain institutional memory and skill over long periods of time which means a large well funded civil service and a good general staff.
again, you are spot on Jonathan, well said Sir !
So you you think each event should only be considered acedemicaly in its own context and can have no bearing whatsover on current events.
Of course it can have preventative abilities – its ridiculous to suggest otherwise.
Firstly History is an academic discipline with a method, it isn’t coffee table books about WW2. History provides context and can explain origin and indeed offers insight into reasons, but people obsess about the idea that “history repeats” that history can tell us what to do etc it doesn’t. That is fatalistic pre-ordination nonsense and fails to recognise that events are unique.
Events are governed by the unique circumstances of the time and place, they are governed by the personalities that are running them. While history can add context and background, to suggest history can offer answers as to how to deal with the current situation between Iran and Israel etc in 2024 is actually more problematic and fails to address the very real and unique issues we are facing. If anything history (and the misplaced obsession with it) is a hindering factor here.
We must stuff th Iranian genie back into its bottle. It has been allowed to to get away with the evil peddling of death and suffering for far too long. We flattened Iraq for less.
Are you going to condemn the Israeli bombing of embassies in third countries?
He could do both they are not mutually exclusive.
In the same vein I could ask if you condem Hammas’ slaughter of women & children in their October attack?
Hamas. Yes, it was a disgusting attack on civilian targets. It doesn’t justify a much bigger attack on civilian targets.
The Iranian embassy is still standing! It was a building that was housing senior ‘officers’ holding a council of war in how to continue to attack Isreal. Good targeting really wasn’t it?
Armageddon?
This is a scenario that brings home the folly of the U.K forces to adopt a expedition centred entity rather than being an aggressive one designed around the forceful abilities to project real power wherever needed the forces are the I students that allows us to make war. And defend ourselves with real teeth. Now tell those bloody dockyards that the navy needs those ships. And to do all it can do, in order for the fleet to do it’s job.
So much could go very badly! But it’s good Irans assault has been neutralised. Maybe payback will hasten the fall of the mad mullah regime & Iranians can be free.
Poor Ukraine must be a bit wounded that nobody helps her out so much when she’s under daily bombardment.
The CCP must be overjoyed at the potential for Ukraine & the middle east blowing up, presenting the best posssible distraction for them to assault Taiwan.
I’m not sure frank..if I was the CCP I would want the west fat and happy until 2027, with my allies all ready to take advantage of the chaos that would happen after the invasion of tiawan…or for it to have kicked of in Europe and the Middle East closer to to own timeframe for Taiwan ( 2027+)…If Ukraine and the Middle East had kicked off in 2026-2027 I suspect the CCP would have been very happy…as is it’s to soon for their timetable.
Or an exhausted depleted West that won’t be too interested in Taiwan once all the top end chip fab isn’t there any more?
I’m being cynical but it is another train of thought?
“Ultimate excellence lies not in winning every battle, but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting. The highest form of warfare is to attack strategy itself”
Mao Zedong took a lot of inspiration from the art of war.in his way of fighting war….and destroying your enemies will to fight before you go kinetic is something Mao believed in and the CCP consider Mao to be the ultimate military genius ( he was pretty good and can be considered one of the best) and Maos teachings are essential the CCP playbook…
good insights Jonathan- makes me wonder how the Chinese politburo are viewing current events.
I wonder if Netanyahu will bargain with the US: support us in Rafah and we won’t respond to Iran. I know there will be deaths if Israel goes into Rafah, but I’m begining to think the civilian death toll will be less than them hanging around putting on pressure to get the hostages. The main causes of deaths in wars like this are disease and malnutrition. Hamas have rejected the latest proposals and the sooner it’s over and the rebuilding can start, the better.
Better alternative would be the opposite, support us when we hit Iran back and we will just sit back and maintain the status quo in Gaza.
Hamas is bottled up, it will take weeks for the temporary port to be built so nothing really to gain. Hamas will not hand over the Hostages anytime soon and are just hunkered down.
On the other hand Israel could whack the power behind all its (and Americas) troubles in the ME. They are quite capable of blowing up arms factories, military bases, arms depots and communications in Iran.
And that helps Ukraine as well.
You may be right. It’s all crystal ball gazing and mine’s distinctly foggy. I’m worried that Gaza won’t be the end of it and Hezbollah will kick off when Gaza ends, just to keep wearing Israel down. Perhaps war with Iran is better sooner than later. Very hard to know.
A potential issue for Israel is another Suez, with Israel attacking with the nod from Biden, then Biden dropping out because of elections and Trump. Unless there’s real cross-party appetite in the US for war against Iran, I can’t see Israel going all in.
Israel will do anything It feels is necessary to defend itself I’ve no doubt that if anyone would Go nuclear, it would be them Israel and the idiot organisation that started this conflict, lit a touch paper that the surrounding areas cannot put out.
It’s finally got to be a good opportunity to put the mullahs to the sword
make ’em convert to Judaism- that will end the thing😉
That would mean putting the western nations having to put boots out on the ground and the whole part of the whole world will go utterly t*TS up as we’ve expected it for to discuss form far too long bran should be reminded of the shock and awe that was visited on Saddam could have t them too im surprised that the U.S HAS ALREADY DETACHED ANOTHER CSG to the region. The U.K should be considering the same thing.
I agree.
What was demonstrated last night was that Iranian system can be taken out at will.
I think the IRG will be quite scared now as they know they fired the first 100 shots and they misfired.
The return 100 shots won’t misfire and will be reverting to their capabilities.
As you say this will help Ukraine.
Oh and make everyone, who didn’t already, realise that their weapons are useless against massed Western systems.
Indeed, the reality is Iran can only really strike Israel via its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas..as long as Jordan and Egypt remain essentially neutral and Hezbollah don’t wish to risk a full war Iran is a bit toothless….although we have to remember Iran has launched some effective ballistic missile strikes against U.S. and other targets…it’s still generally got to fire everything across Jordan….
One big problem would be if Iran can stir up enough regional problems in Jordan to undermine its government…the Jordanian govern is pro western…its population is not..this is a tension Iran can work on…
Also if it can stir up enough tensions in the population of Lebanon..allowing Hezbollah to go full Tonto on Israel’s northern boarder…this would be bad…Israel is still a small county and cannot swap land for time if it had a full incursion from the north…especially with the bulk of its ground forces tied up beating on Hamas.
So the really very big issue is that the present conflict..fuels anti Israel and western sentiment in some of the wests key regional allies…stirs up Hezbollah into action, as well as keeps taking the focus away from Ukraine…and Ukraine falling is a catastrophic outcome for the west and Europe.
The intriguing feature of the current crisis may be that Iran has apparently eschewed an opportunity to enrich uranium to weapons grade. One could speculate re the lack of Iranian comprehension of the NK strategy/model. Delivery system design may be problematic, but there are probably nuke weapon states willing to provide clandestine assistance (e.g., Orcs, ChiComs, nutbag NKs, possibly Pakistanis). Dunno, deem it to be damned curious…🤔
Sadly if Iran do produce weapons grade plutonium and a delivery vehicle. There is still the chance that Iran can deliver a dirty bomb, even if the nuclear warhead detonation fizzles instead of fissions. This would be enough to irradiate a sizeable area and for a good number of years.
However, you can guarantee that Israel will respond in kind!
Understood. Was attempting to convey curiosity re why Iran has not emulated the North Korean model of nuclear weapons development.
The “We don’t know where it’s going, we don’t know what it will do when it gets there, but if it scares the enemy as much as it does our engineers we’ve won the war” model of nuclear weapons development?
Exactly. 😁👍
Neten yahoo? Israel will remind everybody that it has the bomb. And if there is likely to nation more likely to use it, it will. Be them
Israel has had nuclear capability since the late 60s and has fought several existential wars since then. It has never threatened to use its nukes.
That’s probably not true…there is pretty good evidence that Israel has both planned to deploy and threatened the use of them….the Sampson option is though to be the reason the U.S. finally intervened in 73 in that meir Golda threatened the U.S. that Israel would go nuclear…
it’s also known that at in the 66 six day war Israel had just completed its first 2 atomic bombs and had planned to deploy into Egypt if Israel fell.
as one very radical Zionist put it:
“We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all directions, perhaps even at Rome. Most European capitals are targets for our air force. Let me quote General Moshe Dayan: ‘Israel must be like a mad dog, too dangerous to bother.’ I consider it all hopeless at this point. We shall have to try to prevent things from coming to that, if at all possible. Our armed forces, however, are not the thirtieth strongest in the world, but rather the second or third. We have the capability to take the world down with us. And I can assure you that that will happen before Israel goes under”
There is very good indication that if Israel goes down it will take a big chunk of the world with it…after all 200-400 thermo nuclear weapons is not a low level deterrent it’s MAD level.
As of last week both parties are now unified in “When economic conditions allow” on defence spending increases. How about when we actually NEED immediate spending increases as we tumble ever so closer to war every damned day? We need immediate spending, particularly on the navy as the next war we will be primarily a sea based participant as that is our strength. Other European nations except for France and maybe Italy are focused on land and air.
Spending more on public sector pensions (£54bn) then on defence…
Well hundreds of thousands in the civil sector are still retiring on the old final salary schemes at 55.
It always was an insane unaffordable policy, but now we are borrowing ‘vast’ sums to fund our giveaway bonanza economy, going deeper and deeper into the red, it’s looking bloody insane.
The economic reset, that has to inevitably come, will come as one hell of a shock to many.
Come it will, when we eventually go the world bank cap in hand to bail us out.
Here’s a question for Laural and Hardy (Starmer/Sunak), has it been calculated how long we can carry on spending more than we earn every year before economic collapse??
Is there an example of anyone retiring in civil serivce at 55 apart from Firefighter, police and the armed forces ?
Yes. Funny how HMG has never said that it would only increase spending on the NHS, Education, Social Welfare etc ‘when economic conditions allow’.
Yet they single out Defence – the first duty of Government – to use this phrase – as ifeven a modest increase in Defence spending is an option only after all the social programmes have ben well resourced.
Beyond the professionals and military enthusiasts too few people really care or would be prepared to accept one iota of personal sacrifice to fund defence much beyond what we have already. Heck, we’re now just giving impoverished people on £70K salaries child benefit to help them look after their children cos they really need that extra tenner a week on top of the £1300 gross per week they are already earning. What chance does defence have in the grand scheme of things?
im not a lover of universal benefits to be honest…benfits should be a safety net for the poor and those who cannot work.
child benefit was specifically designed to reduce in household poverty in an age where women had little or no control of finances and woman and children could be poor and live in well of households ( cus let’s be honest men have as a group been prone to being arseholes and spending all the.money on beer or golf) …that’s not really a thing anymore……
the trouble is now you have got a situation where everyone has to have free school meals, because other wise the one who can claim it are stigmatised or that’s the thinking
Absolutely, let’s not forget the £600 winter payments per individual pensioner, for the hundreds of thousands who live abroad …
The nasty Tories and their tight fisted austerity 🤔🤔😵💫
It’s all rather depressing really, a battle for resources. If there is something on the table you might as well take it. Don’t have any illusion that the pot hole on your street is going to get filled in or you won’t have to wait as long for a hospital appointment in the future. No, someone else will have reached out and grasped it for the benefit of them and theirs at the expense of you and yours. I wouldn’t even blame the political parties, they are just a mirror of ourselves.
I agree that the chances of a boost to defence spending are nil.
Ben Wallace managed to achieve 2 additional boosts to spending – but Grant Shapps has none of the bargaining skills.
They have been saying exactly that for every year since 2008.
To be fair..at the moment neither parties can promise spending on anything..as they simply get hit with the unfunded spending stick…defence has the added issue that almost none of the electorate are interested in it and a large percentage are actually actively against increasing defence spending… we live an an eco chamber of people who all see the value of defence….most people see it as a negative.
Thanks. I suppose such people don’t insure their house or car too!
Apparently some people think if you don’t have an armed forces worth a dam no one will attack you…people seem to think wars only happen to nations if they have effective armed forces and having an effective armed forces is tantamount to warmongering.
They don’t care mate, only interested in their 5 year Westminster cycle, nothing more…..
Defence doesn’t figure with 90% of the population, that equals few votes, so no money.
It’s that simple.
So true. But we will never be ready for intense and sustained major peer-peer conflict without rearmament now and on a significant scale.
Economic circumstances don’t just allow, they demand. Wars do no favours to our economy as we have seen in Ukraine. Sunak can keep fingers crossed it’ll all blow up after he’s gone, but Starmer doesn’t have that luxury. If he’s not there to the end of the decade, I’ll be very surprised.
I think benefits are probably more priority today with the amount of glass backs,wokes,and snowflakes, defence spending will be non existent as we lean on the USA to much ask anyone who was in Afghanistan camp bastion the breeze block hotel
Remember that we could treble the budget for defence today and the impact of a real increase in the U.Kwouldnt be seen for a decade. Successive governments since the Falklands war have not only butchered the forces, but theyvedone the same thing to me nations abilities to manufacture.to meet what may be needed if the world goes ‘hot’
hhhm , Andy I’d suggest the butchering of the UK armed forces occurred post 1990 and not after the Falkland war. Nonetheless, your point is off course spot on.
This was the obvious consequence of Isreal attacking the Iranian embassy in Damascus which was a needless escalation. The second they did that we should have said ‘we are out’. Both sides are f*ckwits and we should avoid getting dragged into the whole thing.
I agree Israel has been chipping away at Iran numerous times. Strike here and there.
You would think they have enough going on. The current bunch in power really are some of the worst government war mongers.
Israel could try and get the West Bank statehood, stop expanding into the West Bank and actually try to grow stronger together. For those who say it’s not possible they would be similar to the people who said peace with Egypt, Jordan was not possible. Anything is possible.
Israel is then in a position to show the people of Gaza what they can have if they get Hamas out and stop attacking.
Israel needs to work smarter not harder. Hit Iran where it hurts. It’s young population that mostly don’t want to live under the current regime. Cyber, disinformation, working with groups that want change and so on.
Exactly. What Hamas did was abhorrent but it hit the response they were looking for just as Israel was about to be accepted by most Arab state.
Winning wars is about partnerships and soft power and being seen as the ones in the right, and Israel doesn’t help itself in this regard.
One of my friends just last night mentioned to me that Israel under a previous Netanyahu regime actually invited Hamas in to govern Gaza post Arafat and the PLO as the Gazans were unable to govern themselves. I find this quite amazing if true. Does anyone here know the background to Hamas in Gaza? And correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t Hamas and the Iranian’s not “Arab” but “Persian”? Interesting sphere of influence by Iran today which must have historical roots? Need someone to fill in some history gaps here.
Hamas are Sunni Muslims so support from Iran is purely to threaten Israel. Hezbollah is a Shiite organisation so Iranian support is a more natural fit with Iran’s wider conflict with Sunni majority Arab states. The Syrian regime, although generally more tolerant, has been largely Alawite led, a sect seen as closer to Shia Islam, hence Iranian support for Assad.
Thanks Peter. It’s a right ol’ mixed bag in the “muddle” east!
Wiki has good entries on Iran, its history and unique culture. Ethnically it is not Arab. It can claim to be something of a cradle of civilisation. It has an ancient BC and AD culture ( which retains elements of Zoroastrian and Menachian traditions) which predates its conquest by Islam. Significantly the language is Farsi, not Arabic. I think it considers itself a cut above the other nations in the Middle East and did not take kindly to its Shah being an Anglo- American oil puppet :-).
I wonder where the jets were launched from, considering the carriers were not deployed
Cyprus
Flight Radar showed a Typhoon and Tanker yesterday flying out of Cyprus, they flew over Jordan and beyond.
There have been aircraft/drones in the RAF base in Cyprus for years operating over Iraq and Syria taking out ISIS.
It’s one of the most useful bases the U.K. has outside of the U.K.
It’s a long flight from Cyprus, so either the UK knew the attacks were incoming or just got lucky
Or…. the Slow flying Drones coming from so far away were easily detected in advance and engaged. It’s not like Intel would have been lacking.
Would guess just in the area as the US has a carrier and assault ship in the area so had plenty of available assets for the job.
You didn’t need the skills of a Clairvoyant to know an attack was coming,the Iranians have been broadcasting the fact all week,with the assets from OP Shader available it was a relatively esay way to contribute.
Iran told the US 72 hours in advance it was coming but big difference between knowing its coming and knowing the timing.
I guess your right typhoons are a lot faster than a drone and both had a fair distance to travel.
The Typhoon was escorted by a Tanker….. the very fact it was Visible on Flight Radar was rather telling in itself…. As i said, Iran is a long way from Israel and those drones are very slow so plenty of time to react given advanced Intel. What is also quite telling is that the Transponders were still on for so long. Games being played out me thinks.
I’m sure if it wasn’t for lack of escorts ands supply ships that a carrier would have been deployed months ago.
I was watching the news last night and they were saying any drones that survive the US and general aerial picket line would be arriving in about 4 hours so yep quite a warning, the ballistic missiles were already arriving by then of course.
The Intel came from the Iranians, all except for the exact day/time of launch.
No luck involved at all. We have places that monitor much if not all of the Middle East. That doesn’t include the satellite coverage and any HUMINT sources. That, plus the fact the Iranians announced they were coming and used slow moving drones.
Well by all accounts the Iranians told the US before launching them so we may have got a hint where to station our aircraft. On the flank in the North is my guess as these drones can be very sneaky.
Makes me think that Israel and the West must have a pretty good idea where these drones and missiles must be being launched from inside Iran.
They were doing Op SHADER anyway.
RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus. Same place as they were launched from on the anti-Houthi mission.
So is our government going wake ⏰ up now probably not 🙄 🇬🇧
Well based on the post a day ago about the defence budget cuts even in spite of the Ukraine war, I would guess this will trigger further cuts.
That’s a lot of drones! Time to top up missile stocks and the defence budget! 😁
ASRAAM rather than guns kills I’m assuming.
Would be nice if we started to take defence seriously….case in point RAF Akrotiri should have Sky Sabre rather than a fence and a 19 year old sentry on the gate.
Who are the potential enemies though ? Iran have nothing able to reach that far…. Russia ? .. China ? ….. Argentina ? ….. Yemen ? ….. Hamas ? ….
Iran has cruise missiles with the range. But the real point is how complacent the UK has become on defence, assuming problems will remain over the horizon and hoping for the best whilst continually cutting capabilities.
Yes and possibly you might be right but I was just giving you an answer based upon your comment. Personally I think the UK needs an immediate and well overdue hike in defence enhancement…. I’m not talking about Expenditure … I’m talking Capability…. it’s something that Tax payers have long been fleeced by and now we need to get to grips with the fat cat’s and their Greed …… The % of GB GDP is astonishingly low when you take into account the actual % of Equipment procured….. Snouts in troughs springs to mind…. we have a corrupt Elite …. there is no doubt.
Hezbollah..250km from Lebanon to Cyprus..fateh 110 and m600 ballistic missiles have a range of around 300km range …they also have a shed load of scud b/c and d all with a 300km range…
it’s though that Hezbollah could have well over 1000 even a couple of thousand ballistic missiles with a range of between 250-500kms…
they have been saving them for a rainy day with the Israelis but I’m sure they could tear a few away from their preferred target of mass murder and throw some the RAFs way….
We really should have anti ballistic missiles defences for the sovereign base areas on Cyprus…they are only 250kms way from some of the most heavily armed western hating nutters around.
I agree for the need for GBAD for Cyprus. It’s a target rich environment and well within the range of a number of bad actors who just love throwing missile around. We need to nail a politician to a wall and get them to explain why leaving British forces vulnerable is the most optimal outcome for his government. The only thing it’s achieving is keeping the Treasury happy. There is heightened risk here and if people die because of this we need to make sure a few political careers go down with it.
Cyprus is obviously a divided Island, of which UK Armed Forces are merely tenants, both the Cypriot Government and the Turkish authorities have sizable Forces of their own there, both of these will have extensive GBAD assets. It would be easy to politically confuse an attack against UK bases to an attack on the whole Island of Cyprus, there is a difference which means it is unlikely to happen.
Paul, We’re not tenants. The bases are Sovereign to the UK. They were set up in the treaty of establishment and have as much legal legitimacy as the Republic of Cyprus itself. Whilst it’s true both the ROC and Turkey have some GBAD it’s not configured or located to defend the Akrotiri peninsular. It’s certainly not of a scale necessary to defend a mass drone attack launched from Lebanon. Why would Iranian backed Hezbollah want to attack Akrotiri? I think a lot of people could tell you why.
I know the bases are Sovereign,but they still reside in territory of the Cypriot Government,the word tennant is not incorrect in that respect !!!.
Iran has a lot of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach Cyprus!
Just speculating, but ifASRAAM they’d need to more than 2-4 per plane, maybe a “beast mode”, up to 10?
Currently Typhoon is only cleared to carry 4 ASRAAMs on it two outer most underwing hard points. Studies were done to mount twin launchers on one of the hard points to boost the number of ASRAAMs to 6. But the study was shelved on cost grounds.
It may be something the RAF need to revisit, if ASRAAM is going to be the primary means of taking out drones, as it’s half the price of a Meteor!
Yes and even for the F35Bs if doable.
One thing I’ve taken from this is that , at first glance at least, Western defensive technology and tactics were far superior to the Iranian missile and drone technology.
yep, numbers are not everthing
And I don’t think we have ever revealed all our hand. I’m talking Cyber, EW, and intelligence.
Will Sunak now properly fund the military. What other escalation does he need at this stage.
Well a Green card does come in handy in times of European conflict.
now now ….😄
The U.K. and Israel have confirmed the U.K. intercepted ‘missiles’ going into Israel. Significantly Jordan was also involved. Hamas has no support outside Iran and the Kremlin, something the weekly London ‘protesters’ need to learn and inwardly digest.
This international operation was rather impressive. It underlines the need for enlarging defence capability if worse is not to come.
Some say the Saudis also helped.
Why are we up front again. We are financially poor and our hands are in all kinds of warlike actions. The money is required at home for the poor, the NHS and supporting welfare projects. I never thought that my outlook would change , but it has. We are a warlike nation and it seems that our politicians have lost interest in the people and are more interested in hostile commitments. I am 97 and I served as a merchant seaman in the war. I never thought that I would say this. I am no longer proud of my country.”
How is a G7 nation ‘financially poor’?
Must suck to be Ukraine right now. Imagine getting baited into a war with Russia with promises of support, then NATO abandons you. When you see the collective West bust a nut to shoot down anything heading to a country that is nothing to do with Europe while they won’t resupply your artillery or air defence. Hahaha, absolute belters.
Id wager Putin is encouraging Iran to escalate
Shouldn’t have given a great excuse to escalate by attacking an embassy. As usual with Western media, history only starts after their aggression.
spot on ! 👌
To be fair pretty much every weapon that has been fired at isreal by Hamas and Hezbollah has come from Iran with the express purpose of being fired into Israel to kill some Jews…
It was done to lance the boil. Iran is a abscess that needs to be drained.
Evening Klonkie. And he must be taking some notes too for closer home.
Hey Quentin how are things? I think you are on the money!
I don’t think is appropriate to say Ukraine got baited into a war with Russia..Russia invaded Ukraine with the aim of conquest..Ukraine did not invite invasion or even undertook a preemptive self defence strike…it got invaded pure and simple.
Ukraine was baited big time, starting way back with the CIA colour revolution. The US interfere in more elections than anyone else out there. Ukraine would have been intact and safe, they just had to stop flirting with NATO. Even Zelensky was elected as the anti-war candidate but he got played by Boris the destroyer. Hopefully Ukraine have woken up to the duplicitous nature of the west and will find a way to an acceptable or tolerable peace. They should remember that to be an enemy of the US is very dangerous, to be an ally is deadly.
so Ukraine would have been safe as long as Ukraine did exactly as Putin wanted it to do…that’s really warped.
You can’t seriously think that neighbouring countries can be completely autonomous in action from each other without conflict? Would Canada or Mexico have been permitted to join the Warsaw Pact?
Yes they can…..it’s called sovereignty…as long as one side does not interfere with the other’s sovereignty they should as a rule “fuck off” and leave each other be…does France have the right to tell the UK it has to be a member of the EU….if we wanted to join the Shanghai co-operation group that’s our business not Frances…Belarus has a defence pact with Russia and is having nuclear weapons..its on the boarder of Poland…quick Poland needs to invade it…..trying to justify what Russia is doing in Ukraine is a bit difficult…Putin has a habit of invading nations that don’t do exactly as he says….
It’s a border, a boarder would be a paying guest I think. You have a very naive interpretation of how the real world works. As for Putin, the Baltic states survived many years outside of NATO with no Russian aggression. As did Finland. From looking at maps, the Russian border hasn’t moved West, but NATO has advanced several hundreds of miles to the East.
brilliant, you seem to be trying to justify a simple land grab by Putin..for various reasons he believes Ukraine should be part of Russia…legally and historically Ukraine is a separate nation and wishes to remain as such….I’m not naive..I just don’t believe that you can blame the invasion of Ukraine on anyone other than Putin….if Ukraine had in anyway attacked Russia first I would not hold that same view..sometimes it is one side that is blatantly a land grabbing imperialist..other times there is blame on both sides…
Hitler used the very same set of excuses as Putin for his invasions and conquest in the beginning….then he just got to the point where he did not even pretend…Putin is still in the pretending phase…
As for your example of Canada joining the Warsaw pact..and a U.S. invasion…if the will of the Canadian people had been to become communist and jointed that pact..then the US invasion of that nation would have been wrong morally and triggered world war 3 as the Warsaw pact had the same sort of triggers as nato….but in reality Cuba and the bay of pigs would give a good example of how far the US would or would not go….supporting an insurgency yes…outright invasion by the U.S. not a chance…the reason Putin got away with his 2014 invasion was his use of proxy forces to allow a level of international deniability….
But very few of the people West of Russia want to be Russian. Somehow Putin has contrived that quite a lot of the people East of NATO wanted to be in NATO.
The Baltic States survived next to Russia by making it clear that if push came to shove they would never achieve anything against Russia in a war. As soon as they began asserting independence and moving away from the Russian economy there was a threat from Russia.
Finland survived by a position of armed neutrality with a clear red line on their borders prompting a tough conventional defence. When Mr Putin made clear that a conventional deterrence wasn’t enough they joined NATO.
I think it is you who is naive by equating Russia’s relationship with neighbours with NATO’s eastern flank. Nobody has ever been pressured to join NATO, it is a choice usually based on the threat from the East.
“duplicitous nature of the west” .I love that , because that does sum up the west. And also “ to be an ally is deadly”. You are spot on with both these comments. Beautiful.
Checkout rferl dot org. The Ukrainians had the temerity to declare their unique identity in 2019 causing Moscow Patriarch Kirill (who is a big KGB mate of Putin), to fall out of his pram.
“Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople has signed a decree granting autocephaly, or independence, to the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, ending more than 330 years of Russian religious control in Ukraine.
The ceremony on January 5 in Istanbul, which is considered the spiritual headquarters of Orthodox Christianity, was attended by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.
The decree, or “tomos,” will now be handed over to the head of the new Ukrainian church, Metropolitan Epifaniy, on January 6, completing the two-day spiritual ceremony.
Bartholomew said Ukrainians could now enjoy “the sacred gift of emancipation, independence, and self-governance, becoming free from every external reliance and intervention.”
Any members of the UK’S political heirarchy, of any and all parties, taking any notice of the stae of the world. No. Probably not. ☠💤
Our political leaders need to find some time for some serious introspection. There is a self evident cognitive dysfunction at the heart of government. This was proven in spades by the actions taken by government during Covid and we can see it again today by it’s stubborn refusal/inability to redirect resources back to defence. When irrational decisions are made by a decision making body we have to look hard at why that is? It may be the case that the individual decision makers are psychologically incapable of changing direction. The change of direction is so out of their life experience that they lack the courage or understanding to make it and instead find comfort in keeping things the same.
We’re now obviously living in a post peace dividend world but the government cant\won’t change direction. It persists on funding Peace Dividend Defence budgets whilst the pillars of the peace dividend world crumble around them. Everything has changed apart from the dull mindset of the politicians. They’re like the Town Mayor in Jaws not shutting the beach despite the “bitey” Great White lurking offshore.
We need to challenge the strange comfort politicians feel by hiding behind meeting a 2% of GDP defence budget target. This is an artificial number. It is insufficient to pay for a nuclear deterrent, conventional armed forces and overseas bases. A 2% budget limit is actually corrosive to defence because it will perpetually create the need for further defence cuts. More insidiously though it creates an institutional paralysis within the MOD that stomps on initiative. The number of trivial expenditure items which require 3 star command to approve is absurd. One of the main reasons the MOD is so inefficient is due to the Treasury standing on its neck.
Ultimately however this isn’t about taxing people more to make a bigger public expenditure pie it’s about giving Defence a bigger slice of the existing pie. Maybe defence has a higher claim to the public purse than the need for Rainbow Police Cars or foreign aid funded folk dancing groups in the rest of the world. Unfortunately at the moment I think our problem is beyond an argument over future defence budgets and more immediate action is required. We need to be spending money today to plug our gaping vulnerabilities. The absence of ground based air defence in a world of hypersonic missiles and cheap drones is absurd. The cost of replacing most of the Royal Airforce and Royal Navy due to having a particularly bad afternoon is a lot more expensive than buying a half dozen more Sky Sabre batteries. Right now we need the guy in the Treasury to do a complete 180 degree change in character and just smile and write the cheques. We also need to find a far more effective way of bashing politicians into doing their jobs properly. The political truths of the Peace Dividend World just ain’t going to cut it anymore.
Dangerous times, Cameron on radio this morning. We won’t support Israel attack on Iran. One line of thought is Iran has failed in its major attack and is weak, the other is the taboo is crossed an Isreal can now be attacked.
Why has UK not bought Patriot or Iron Dome even Switzerland has bought it if we keep sticking our nose into other countries war we have nothing to protect the UK all the Type 45 are in refit
Simply the huge costs of having such systems vs the perceived risks of not having them.
In risk management risks are assessed as high and therefore actionable if one of 2 conditions are met. Probability is high or the impact of the event is high.
Whilst in the past probability of an air attack was low the impact of one has always been been high. Pulling the effective strength of the RAF and the RN into a handful of undefended bases means the impact of a surprise air attack would be excessively high. You could effectively lose 2 of the 3 armed services in a bad afternoon. That is an unsustainable outcome and it should have forced HMG to do something. The fact that it didn’t indicates that reason is not the driving force in government the Treasury is. As for huge costs…other countries seem to manage them very successfully. France has GBAD, Germany has GBAD. We have a single regiment in the British Army, part of which is permanently based in the Falklands. It’s nowhere near good enough and any idiot who says it is needs to be thrown out of the room.
They should be able to see the risk for the trees by now! Everyone here on UKDJ can! Lol 😁
MP Tobias Ellwood has tasked UK to consider IRON DOME £800 MILLION so if we take that out of the Aid Budget of 4.3 Billion that still leaves 3.500,000,000
Totally wrong system for the UK, we have what that does already for less money.
agreed. the USMC bought iron dome to put on guam then quickly shelved it as it wouldn’t be of much use against high end cruise missiles let alone ballistic missiles- its made for cheap hamas rockets but not much else. Patriot would be the best system for UK… and if the funds were there THAAD as well.
Mark Francois, the former armed forces minister who sits on parliament’s Defence Committee, ‘We have nothing remotely comparable to the very comprehensive Israeli Iron Dome system, bar a very few missies, with only limited range. i.e Sky Sabre 25Km range Patriot 160Km we have no E3D aircraft .E7 AIRCRAFT will not be operational for another 3 years Nothing to protect the North of England we have 4 Typhoons on standby Iran launched 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles. We need Iron Dome / David sling or Arrow 3 Germany has just purchased
not really an “or” situation with those. Arrow 3 is much like THAAD or SM-3 in that it can only take out ballistic missiles- its warhead is designed for exo-atmospheric intercepts so you’d need something to supplement it to use for cruise missiles, unless you want to rely on QRA fighters for those then you could just go for arrow 3.
This is one we shouldn’t get involved in Israel/Iran we’ve got too much commitment in Ukraine/Russia we are not a global power anymore we should stick to our own back garden Russia is more of a threat. Israel is not in NATO we should concentrate on the greater threat to the security of the UK and Europe. The US is Israels biggest weapon supplier then Germany. Let the US be the sole interceptor. Remember all the UK personnel killed in Afghanistan then the US pulled out without really consulting the UK the last 20 years British brave personnel died and for what nothing, it’s worse now than it ever has been. The brave Afghan that assisted us were left to their own fate which I can say some were friends. We are only getting involved because we’re like the little dog following the Alpha dog.