In response to increased Iranian threats and the growing risk of escalation in the Middle East, the UK Government say that it has been “working with partners across the region to encourage de-escalation and prevent further attacks”.

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak condemned Iran’s, pledging the UK would “continue to stand up for Israel’s security”.

Israel’s Channel 12 have reported that US and UK fighter jets shot down Iranian drones near the Syria-Iraq border this morning.

“I condemn in the strongest terms the Iranian regime’s reckless attack against Israel. These strikes risk inflaming tensions and destabilising the region. Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in its own backyard. The UK will continue to stand up for Israel’s security and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. Alongside our allies, we are urgently working to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation. No one wants to see more bloodshed.”

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George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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Monkey spanker
Monkey spanker (@guest_810264)
1 month ago

Great. Time to dig a bunker and get to Tesco before there’s a run on toilet rolls.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810365)
1 month ago
Reply to  Monkey spanker

Sod the bunker everyone knows the key to any survival situation is always the toilet rolls….

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810371)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

My wife’s already been, now I’ve got nowhere to put all my fishing gear 😂

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810525)
1 month ago
Reply to  Monkey spanker

Or maybe time to understand why F16 will be more than useful to Ukraine?

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810622)
1 month ago

So useful that I tear my hair out wondering why the hell the US isn’t sending 100 or so to Ukraine.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810630)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

Quite.

USA has plenty in stock that are gradually being replaced.

Or sent them two years ago like they asked?

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810632)
1 month ago

100 F-16s are basically a rounding error for the US Air Force. They’d never miss them.

It’s time that all Western governments stopped supplying Ukraine to not lose and started equipping them to win.

We’re talking of increasing our artillery shell production eightfold; at least half of this increased amount should go to Ukraine as soon as it’s produced.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810634)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

Agree.

I think the Ukrainians would be happy to take them from the boneyard and rebuild.

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_811484)
1 month ago

I watched a Lloyd Carroll /Justin Bronk video on the value of the F16 to Ukraine, JB said that to operate a reasonable force of 200 F16’s it would take them 5 years minimum. People underestimate the amount of work needed to integrate and train on them. Even the Ukrainians have said that they are not really relevant now.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_811526)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

I’m not sure that is totally true.

It all depends on the weapons and electronics fit for the F16’s.

If they had 200 they would have a far larger deployable air force than Russia.

Let’s put it this way – the numbers of Soviet junk they had are useful for launching Storm Shadow and other tasks. F16 enables precision bombing.

Lord Baddlesmere
Lord Baddlesmere (@guest_810265)
1 month ago

Let’s be clear, this is an act of war by Iran encouraged by Putin when will the west learn?
The media are frightened of calling this aggression what it patently is – Israel will respond…… Meanwhile UK PM refuses to increase defence spending against a background of declining capability and force levels

Dodger
Dodger (@guest_810329)
1 month ago

And the armed forces level decreases yet again per annum because it costs to much were the laughing stock of NATO for our number of troops levels

Robert Blay
Robert Blay (@guest_810335)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

Got any examples of other NATO members laughing at us?

DMJ01
DMJ01 (@guest_810344)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

Many NATO members made similar decreases post Cold War for example the Belgian Army has no MBTs and the Dutch only have 18 Leopards leased from Germany.

Spyinthesky
Spyinthesky (@guest_810452)
1 month ago
Reply to  DMJ01

Right that’s the first week of any war sorted then.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810368)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

It’s a western world malaise not just a UK one..we are actually sadly one of the more prepared ( even if we have massive holes). I’ve been thinking a lot about the why the west has been unable to see the risk..as although the stupid “end of history and last man” had a lot to do with the post Cold War decline…it does not answer the question why did western nations not respond when the geopolitical risks changes from around 2010…and the only thing I can really find is NATO Itself..interestingly I think the fact that the alliance is so… Read more »

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810377)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Fortuitously we have engaged with R&D even if it was actually a reaction to various bit of US legislation like ITAR and FMS that made us go independent…..Sea Ceptor, Sea Viper (OK with others), Dragon Fire and loads of other tech too. We are lucky that 13 frigates did get ordered. We are lucky that 2 x QEC are real. We are lucky that 5 x T45 will soon all be usable again. We are lucky that we actually have a useful number of F35B (not enough) The bigger issue is getting production lines, and I include supply chain in… Read more »

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810415)
1 month ago

Indeed, it seems to me that a major war between the west and anti western powers is now inevitable..the only question left to answer is the size and scope of that war…with the minimum scope being a regional war in the Middle East, an ongoing war in Ukraine followed by a later war for Taiwan ( essentially a number of fires independent of each other and contained in a regional sense) and the maximum scope being war that includes unrestricted warfare with Russia and allies in Eastern Europe, Iran and allies in the Middle East and china and North Korea… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Jonathan
Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810424)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Agreed. That is the problem with 2.5 % this and that, it goes on non conventional assets. We need to commit to a force level and build to it.

frank
frank (@guest_810435)
1 month ago

This whole % of GDP thing is futile though….. Too much is soaked up by the Elite and Corrupt. Any increase will just exacerbate this ….. What we actually need is Realistic and honest Value For Money…. Tax payers are not and should never be considered as cash Cows for the Elites.

Mark B
Mark B (@guest_810509)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

Nonsense. We have a capitalist system in this country. If you invest your hard earned money in something and it is successful you get a profit which pays most peoples pensions. Private companies have been driving the provision of weapons for this country for a looong time and it has got us out of many scrapes. If someone invents something and makes some profit I say good for them. They are taking a risk and hopefully getting a reward.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810453)
1 month ago

Indeed, I think the mistake is that everything is treasury lead…what we need is a capacity and capability lead system…agree what we need and then find a way to pay for it in a sustainable way…the really is the defence review in 1998 was essentially a baseline for what capacity was needed in a stable world…that should have been the baseline up until 2010-14 ( which had increased risk and a possible increase in capability)..with another review post 2022 for the pre war world…instead we have had decades of budget lead reviews that ignored the actual requirements…

Alabama boy
Alabama boy (@guest_810491)
1 month ago

We need to establish what capabilities we need for proper defence based on a realistic threat analysis not one written to justify current spend of about 2% of GDP.. The Government should work to fund the right capabilities not crowing about 2% or 2.5% of GDP (which included military pensions)..

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810544)
1 month ago

Mate, I really wish the political parties could adopt a bi-partisan strategy on defence and spend – just ring fence the thing !

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810545)
1 month ago
Reply to  klonkie

hhm not sure why my post turned blue ?

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810601)
1 month ago
Reply to  klonkie

Morning not sure about the blue , but what you says sounds right 👍

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810626)
1 month ago
Reply to  klonkie

😆

Math
Math (@guest_810581)
1 month ago

A study of a French officer showed that a surge from 2% of GDP to 4% of GDP allowed on defense will raise number of soldiers and weapons from 1 to 4. So doubling the amount quadruple the force.
For numbers of reservists, we are talking of the Norwegian model, in which the best 10% of a population will have access to the army and will receive benefit in their civilian life afterward.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810623)
1 month ago

Makes perfect sense to me: armed forces state their force level requirements, MoD proposes a budget to support that, and the Treasury finds the money.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810437)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

“ my personal view is one thing the RN and HMG could do is keep the 10 T23s that have had Mid life refits running longer into the danger point that is 2027…so for 2027-2028 we could have active”

I honestly think they will be falling apart by then.

You might eek a few very expensive years out of them.

I’d be genuinely concerned about their BDR state at over 2x planned hull life.

Jim
Jim (@guest_810468)
1 month ago

I think we should pass a law making illegal to scrap anything before 2027.

I would even put the last two Trafalgar class that were laid up on the list of things to keep.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810471)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

I doubt the old T boats are nuclear certifiable anymore?

The parts supply chain will have been shut down as well as a few other things.

The one thing you don’t mess with is nuclear at sea.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810627)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

I think we should go further; make it illegal to scrap a platform without a replacement being brought into service simultaneously.

And if it’s not a one-for-one replacement, e.g. a reduction in numbers, that needs to be justified.

It’s time the budget started being tailored to required capability, rather than MoD and forces always being beholden to accountants.

rmj
rmj (@guest_810449)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Makes sense – GBAD expansion is needed. Brize and Lossie are centres of gravity ie we’re screwed if they’re taken out and so they plus AKI need Sky Sabre asap.

Lord Baddlesmere
Lord Baddlesmere (@guest_810465)
1 month ago
Reply to  rmj

To say nothing of Cyprus, Gib, Falklands now Argentina are gaining F16 – the Gaps are clearly visible EW, ECCM, DEW etc

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810517)
1 month ago
Reply to  rmj

Well said 👍

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810582)
1 month ago
Reply to  rmj

And the Naval, sub, fuel and cargo ports, radar installations, power facilities, the whole bloody country basically! And additional VSHORAD for the Army.
Not sure how covered 🇦🇺 is down here as it’s a huge country! I think the government is trying to deal with things diplomatically first!

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810604)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Absolutely it’s ridiculous we don’t have GBAD , just think 300 Missiles and drones heading towards UK 😕 . Ok us Brits ,US and French and Jordan help out .But it shows at least Israel had a fighting chance with there GBAD system in place. God help us 😕 🇬🇧

Lord Baddlesmere
Lord Baddlesmere (@guest_810427)
1 month ago

Weapons Brimstone, ASRAAM, captor, METEOR, SPEAR CAP3, Storm Shadow, Martlet, etc all good we have holes ARM EW GDAB which need to be filled – Steel manufacturing and flexible drone manufacturing are needed. Our forces recruitment needs sorting Shapps will fail at this – accommodation for personnel needs sorting these are not difficult things

Mark B
Mark B (@guest_810507)
1 month ago

SB you are suggesting we jump to a war footing or are you simply suggesting our peacetime force should be enhanced?

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810418)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

So, we’ve got to the point where the navy has no ships, THE RAF doesn’t have enough front line squadrons, the army doesn’t 5 enough soldiers. The nightmare scenario is upon us and we’re already f*cked.

Robert Blay
Robert Blay (@guest_810475)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

Err, no we are not.

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810518)
1 month ago
Reply to  Robert Blay

But we aren’t good mate and that’s for sure .

FormerUSAF
FormerUSAF (@guest_810573)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Wasn’t the principal rationale for the decreased GDP percentage defence budget from 2010 to the present day the lingering effects of 2008 financial crisis? That, and defence has very few political advocates, until hostilities commence. 🤔

Math
Math (@guest_810577)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Brics is a big challenge. The pivotal states are in Africa, South America and Middle East. Time to choose is closing. Let’s consider Russia, Iran, China and North Korea as group. They are rather big, have energy and technology.
Issue is political as well as military. For the military side, technology is ok, but volume of Ammo is inadequate.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810628)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

Russia, Iran, North Korea and China are the true axis of evil.

We took our eyes massively off the ball with this 20-year War on Terror.

Math
Math (@guest_810638)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

Let’s say that our interests do not align. If you enter such a rethoric, you will end up with nothing else than destruction.
What do we want to achieve, to keep, that this group of country is preventing us to get, individually or collectively? Finding the answer will be probably the right way to solve this problem.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810661)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

That’s a complete non-answer, right there.

The fact is that all 4 countries have shown themselves to be, at best, adversarial to us and our allies.

In some cases e.g. Russia, Iran, they are overt threats.

I’m not saying we should declare war on them, but we need to stop acting as if they want to be friends, because they don’t. We need to treat them with caution and prepare for possible conflict with them. It won’t be one that we start, but we need to be prepared for it.

Math
Math (@guest_810700)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

Totally agree regarding being ready to wage a war with them and not being the first to shoot. But if we confront them, what result do we really want in the end? A regime change? A country dismantled? I am not asking a rethorical question.

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810710)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

What result we want in the end is for them to back down. If it comes to a fight we want them to lose the war, obviously. They need to have their asses handed to them enough to pull their surviving forces back and know not to pull this crap again. In terms of a regime change? In Putin’s case that’ll happen in the next 10-20 years anyway, no matter what. He’s 71 or 72 now and won’t live forever. In terms of dismantling the country: definitely not – not in the case of Russia, at least. That would result… Read more »

Math
Math (@guest_810797)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

Sure, so if Russia back off, we want ie Ukraine to have the possibility to join our sphere of influence, be it NATO or EU. I am French, I am fine with this outcome. What I would not want is to have a problem like the one endured by USA in Irak or USSR in Poland. I would be pleased to have Ukraine in Europe, as long as we don’t have to pay Billions every year for a force that would not be welcome. This look like Metternich dilemma with Austrian forces in Northern Italy 1820’s. They gradually became seen… Read more »

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810925)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

If Ukraine joined NATO and the EU then there’d be no need to have tens of thousands of troops there for a long time, and it would be a completely different situation in Ukraine compared to Iraq or Afghanistan; NATO troops would be welcome in Ukraine. There wouldn’t be a policing action or anything like that and we wouldn’t be occupying the country. At most, a base or two would be set up in Ukraine with NATO troops working jointly with the Ukrainian Army, who would now be part of NATO. This would be no different to NATO bases in… Read more »

Math
Math (@guest_810933)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve R

This implies factors that I do not master. US presence is in general well perceived. But we may have to consider no US presence in this case as US forces are overstretched. So the perception of security and common belonging should be carefully analyzed. If French or British or German troups are to be stationed there, among Ukrainians, we could find cultural gaps, differences, that may be overlooked now, but that will have to be managed. Once the French Army went to Spain to restore the King. Guess what, 50% of Spanish disliked it. When you think your protector has… Read more »

Steve R
Steve R (@guest_810961)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

“Once the French Army went to Spain to restore the King. Guess what, 50% of Spanish disliked it.” Yeah… That was over 200 years ago, so not all that relevant, really. Also, the mission would be completely different. NATO troops in Ukraine, as a NATO member itself, would be more like US troops in South Korea, or as I said, like NATO troops in Poland, Romania etc. Not an occupying army, not a peacekeeping force, but a few thousand troops engaging in occasional exercises with Ukrainian troops. Basically not much difference from NATO troops posted to anywhere else during peacetime;… Read more »

Jim
Jim (@guest_810399)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

Please share who in NATO is laughing at us.

rmj
rmj (@guest_810450)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

The US

Jim
Jim (@guest_810469)
1 month ago
Reply to  rmj

When was this? Share a link.

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810419)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

How many other NATO members were in the skies over the Middle East last night ?
Laughing stock? Seriously. You probably have little to no idea of our military capabilities beyond “how many” with a comment like that.

Adrian
Adrian (@guest_810443)
1 month ago

Very true, one thing about the UK military, it has limited numbers but equipment is actually used and therefore does work. Our typhoons have probably flown more hours and dropped more ordnance the all of the other partners put together.

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810457)
1 month ago
Reply to  Adrian

It’s something I constantly flag here. Despite the endless lamenting/moaning/comments on cuts, no one should question our militaries training, professionalism, and modern kit ( in many, many areas)
We are capable of night 1 ops alongside the US, in many areas. Many others are not, or not trusted.

Jim
Jim (@guest_810477)
1 month ago

Most of them don’t have a decent enough knowledge to comments on anything defence related. At best they parrot what they have seen on YouTube (cause they can’t read) from some US fanboy, Russian Bots or Indian Trolls. Yesterday national interest magazine ran a story on Astute saying that the best nuclear submarine in the world (might not be American) like it’s some revelation that not everything from the US is automatically best in the world and shock horror some other nation might actually make stuff that’s actually pretty good. It’s honestly getting embarrassing, it’s like the early 2000’s and… Read more »

Math
Math (@guest_810583)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

1917, 1941… it is not like we are not used to this.

Grizzler
Grizzler (@guest_810556)
1 month ago

I dont think anyone does, not on here – well no one worth reading anyway .
It’s just a shame -even a travesty- that this ‘hides’ the shortfalls in may areas.
Just think what would be possisble if the government/treasury commitment matched the commitment on the ground.

Dodger
Dodger (@guest_810791)
1 month ago

Why are you just referring to RAF I’m referring to the army

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810809)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

The service you’re referring to is not really relevan. You’ve come on this site, which is chock full of SMEs and knowledgeable posters, and within just 5 posts used the words “laughing stock” about a part of HM forces, without any context or variables such as training, logistics, know how professionalism, kit, and a whole lot else that does nor show the army as a laughing stock.

Too small, yes. Far too small. Though I myself prioritise the RN and the RAF.

That’s fine, but expect others to give a counter opinion and shoot you down with descriptions like that.

Jim
Jim (@guest_810470)
1 month ago

Russian Trolls on over time last night mate 😀

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810527)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

Quite possibly mate.

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810519)
1 month ago

We punch above our weight DM ,and with the Resources we have I very much doubt any body el else could do the same .Shows how professional our forces are .But the US do have have a point ,we must put more in the Defence pot now not tomorrow. No doubt you agree 🍺

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810529)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew D

For sure. All the forces are too small.
That is due to other “defence” things in the budget that do not directly impact conventional force numbers.

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810605)
1 month ago

Morning DM ,he’s hoping government wake ⏰ up and sort things out .After seeing the news at the weekend GBAD maybe a good start . 👍

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810543)
1 month ago

that’s a great point Daniele. Those currently in the UK armed forces are the best of their generation. I salute and thank them.

Dodger
Dodger (@guest_810788)
1 month ago

Obviously your referring to airspace policing not boots on the ground your opinion is nothing to which I was referring to so if we’re well in stock of troops can you tell me how many do we have in total just a clue it’s less than 800,000

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810806)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

800,000?
You mean 80,000. Actually around 73K now.
Thank you, I don’t need no clues from you at what this nations ORBAT or force level is.
I’ve agreed elsewhere the military, and the army, is too small.
I’ve also pointed out on numerous occasions that size alone is not the be all and end all.

Andrew Robinson
Andrew Robinson (@guest_810503)
1 month ago
Reply to  Dodger

Care to quote an example of those other Nato nations?

Jim
Jim (@guest_810397)
1 month ago

It’s an act of war against Israel not the UK and it’s got f**k all to do with Putin.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810454)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

true..I don’t think Russia has much influence over Iran…Syria yes..Iran no….china possibly, but I don’t think china really wants this happening in the Middle East now…china has its own timeline for challenging the west and its probably 4-5 years away yet.

Jim
Jim (@guest_810472)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

And we were in Syrian airspace last light shooting down Iranian drones.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810478)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jim

I suppose the question is was it from the Syrian government, in which case we have another worrying path of confrontation with Russian ( like we really need another) or was it Iranian proxies operating in Syria ( it’s not like the Assad regime has full sovereignty over all of Syria).

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810676)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

And Nicholas Drummond mentioned Serbia and Kosovo possibly flaring up again. Wonder who’s behind that? Interestingly, Serbia is also ordering 12 Rafales which seems to be selling very well.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810679)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Indeed…it does not help that Hungary is actually a Russian ally..who is feeding of the EU…I suspect if Ukraine fell, Hungary would soon after join a formal alliance with Russia and the Putin has a strait line to the Balkans and support to Serbia…..placing a dagger in the heart of NATOs geopolitically weakest area.

Grizzler
Grizzler (@guest_810558)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

I would disagree with that to a certain degree – Russia is still a ‘big boy’ in that anti west enviroment – they are in reality the only one that has actually fronted up- and as sure have some influence over Iran – historically more than China,
China may start doing more that posturing – or it may decide its just not worth the end game- as you say its a while away before those cards are shown.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810562)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grizzler

to be honest I think Iran sees itself as equal to Russia and it’s unlikely to do anything it does not want to do in its own interests..infact at preset it’s Russia going to Iran and asking for weapons and support….where as there is good evidence china has been throwing a lot at Iran and some other Middle Eastern countries …there is good intel to show that the Ballistic missiles coming out of Iran are based on Chinese knowhow…the anti ship ballistic missiles is not something that Iran would have come up with on its own..also the hidden ballistic missile… Read more »

Math
Math (@guest_810586)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

I think China is ok with this. The strategy is the 1000 wounds. Step by step they are going into the mind of US soldiers, weakening their resolve by multiplication of engagements. I have a doubt. I am not sure China believes in the decisive battle. They prefer go game. Look how they are taking over the Pacific Ocean: Island by Island. Samoa, Solomon etc. Unnoticed, step by step strangling the prey. Iran attacks? A wonderful occupation for US forces and missiles inventory… The most important is to regain initiative with our friends, to create summits and new ties will… Read more »

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810677)
1 month ago
Reply to  Math

I think the opposite is true. China’s developments have not gone unnoticed. Maybe more unaddressed earlier in the piece. People and nations affected by China’s intrusions see things first hand and I think this actually steels their resolve when they want to defend their sovereign rights. I think the West might have more back bone than we give it credit for and it will reassert itself in defence of freedom, law and fairness, democracy and human rights and imperfect as it is.

Last edited 1 month ago by Quentin D63
Math
Math (@guest_810705)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Yes, perhaps. I think lately, the US strategy has been very smart: putting every ally in front of their responsibility. it is wise given the fact that production capacity is no so much in western hands anymore and USA cannot out produce China and Russia by itself. Though, we can all see signs of lack of confidence in US and allies all alike. This can lead to 2 mutually excluding outcomes: submission or resolve. We see growing signs of resolve, but this issue is far from settled yet, even in Europe. Let’s put it in other terms: what would be… Read more »

Dragonwight
Dragonwight (@guest_810593)
1 month ago

Let’s be clear, bombing another country’s embassy is an act of war. Its remarkable how people including Cameron gloss over that little detail. This is the first time Iran has attacked directly. Personally I think we should have zero to do with this conflict. At its heart is religion and that is a non resolvable issue. The Iranian regime is unpleasant and so is the current Israeli regime. Neither deserves our support. As for defence spending, that’s been in decline for decades and it will take decades to increase it. The current tax burden will not allow any increase. Labour… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Dragonwight
maurice10
maurice10 (@guest_810267)
1 month ago

Another domino falls.

Levi Goldsteinberg
Levi Goldsteinberg (@guest_810288)
1 month ago
Reply to  maurice10

I keep seeing people make this comment on the internet but I must be missing something – what do you mean?

Rowan Maguire
Rowan Maguire (@guest_810313)
1 month ago

Escalation into something bigger.

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810382)
1 month ago
Reply to  Rowan Maguire

Much, much bigger than anyone might be compared to contemplate
There more potential flashpoints around the world and it could all go mental at anytime soon. Israel is loose cannon and the fact that it has the bomb should all th enemy nations to decide to repeat the war when Syria, Egypt, Jordan launched a sudden joint attack on , and if pull turns tpusjh the israel would have no problem with going nuclear is the rapture before armageddon.h3re?

maurice10
maurice10 (@guest_810324)
1 month ago

If you place dominos on their ends with a small gap between if one falls in the direction of the other pieces then, that is known as the ‘Domino Effect’. A potential fatal reaction as we may witness in the Middle East this coming week? We must keep one eye on the international money markets to see if the World is set for fiscal chaos, just when things looked like picking up again!

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810395)
1 month ago
Reply to  maurice10

Not just the middle east, Taiwan, Korea, the whole bloody planet is on the edge the rapture is here and just around the corner is Armageddon.

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810400)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

My medication please nurse.😁

maurice10
maurice10 (@guest_810499)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

The Bible says that the world’s armies will meet and fight to the death on Mount ? in the Middle East, which sounds rather plausible considering what is currently afoot.

Paul.P
Paul.P (@guest_810506)
1 month ago
Reply to  maurice10

It helps not to take the Bible literally. Israel were acting illegally when they struck the Iranian consulate in Damascus. They made a conscious decision to provoke retaliation by Iran so as to draw them out into the open. I’m not saying I’m a fan of Netanyahu nor am I in favour of starting WW3 but I do understand why Israel acted as they did. Iran has been getting away with taking the michael for too long.

maurice10
maurice10 (@guest_810532)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul.P

Much of what Iran did last night was to calm the unrest at home over the Damascus bombing. I believe Israel will not respond like it normally does to appease Washington. The relationship has been under strain in recent weeks and by holding back would help to reestablish normal relationships again. Israel needs to concentrate its efforts on Gaza and not have to split its efforts with other foes. We will have to wait and see but much water needs to be poured on this current fire.

FormerUSAF
FormerUSAF (@guest_810575)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul.P

Ummm…er…pardon? “Taking the Michael” is an unfamiliar expression on this side of
the Pond. Explanation, please. 🤔😳

Paul.P
Paul.P (@guest_810585)
1 month ago
Reply to  FormerUSAF

I’m trying to be polite…taking the @&ss

Jon
Jon (@guest_810528)
1 month ago
Reply to  maurice10

Meggido.

Nick C
Nick C (@guest_810334)
1 month ago

Study US foreign policy in the 50’s and 60’s. It’s why they went into Vietnam, the thinking was that if you allow one country to go communist the next domino will follow.

Paul
Paul (@guest_810350)
1 month ago
Reply to  Nick C

And history demonstrated it was a misplaced notion. The circumstances of each country is unique. The domino effect is generally discounted by historians now and is utterly misplaced as a term in this crisis.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810372)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

that is true if you only consider the domino effect in regards to Us anti communist policy in the 50-60s , Nick yiu are looking at the Domino effect as related to US foreign policy around the 1950-1960s as related to the spread of communism…in this if one nation falls to communism then the neighbouring nations will have an increased risk of falling to communism…but nations are not dominos and what happens to one nation many or many not impact on its neighbours as each nation is different and just because Vietnam fell to communism did not mean the entire… Read more »

Paul
Paul (@guest_810421)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

I can see that. I’ve normally seen that called cascade effect because domino is usually tied to the cold War theory. But fair enough.

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810403)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

History exists to remind mankind of repeating the mistakes of the past.

Paul
Paul (@guest_810431)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

It doesn’t do any such thing and given the unique nature of each era history rarely demonstrates much in terms of solving or avoiding current problems, it isn’t a science with predictive powers. History is where we create a narrative that examines and analyses past events, in the search for motive, cause and explanation. History is an academic pursuit with its own end and is very much misused if people think that it has current preventative abilities.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810459)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

True, but human nature is not so different and societies are made up of human beings, you put them under similar stressors and they tend to end up acting in the same semi predictable ways…competing for resources in an aggressive way, reacting to fear or threat with violence…history does not so much repeat itself as humans tend to react in a human way when put under similar stressors.

Paul
Paul (@guest_810482)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

True enough though that is more the realm of politics, sociology and psychology (with history lending context).

The only lesson really is that you must maintain institutional memory and skill over long periods of time which means a large well funded civil service and a good general staff.

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810541)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

again, you are spot on Jonathan, well said Sir !

Grizzler
Grizzler (@guest_810561)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul

So you you think each event should only be considered acedemicaly in its own context and can have no bearing whatsover on current events.
Of course it can have preventative abilities – its ridiculous to suggest otherwise.

Paul
Paul (@guest_810599)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grizzler

Firstly History is an academic discipline with a method, it isn’t coffee table books about WW2. History provides context and can explain origin and indeed offers insight into reasons, but people obsess about the idea that “history repeats” that history can tell us what to do etc it doesn’t. That is fatalistic pre-ordination nonsense and fails to recognise that events are unique. Events are governed by the unique circumstances of the time and place, they are governed by the personalities that are running them. While history can add context and background, to suggest history can offer answers as to how… Read more »

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810422)
1 month ago
Reply to  Nick C

We must stuff th Iranian genie back into its bottle. It has been allowed to to get away with the evil peddling of death and suffering for far too long. We flattened Iraq for less.

Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810480)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

Are you going to condemn the Israeli bombing of embassies in third countries?

Grizzler
Grizzler (@guest_810563)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

He could do both they are not mutually exclusive.

In the same vein I could ask if you condem Hammas’ slaughter of women & children in their October attack?

Last edited 1 month ago by Grizzler
Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810566)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grizzler

Hamas. Yes, it was a disgusting attack on civilian targets. It doesn’t justify a much bigger attack on civilian targets.

Jacko
Jacko (@guest_810587)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

The Iranian embassy is still standing! It was a building that was housing senior ‘officers’ holding a council of war in how to continue to attack Isreal. Good targeting really wasn’t it?

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810393)
1 month ago

Armageddon?

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810413)
1 month ago
Reply to  maurice10

This is a scenario that brings home the folly of the U.K forces to adopt a expedition centred entity rather than being an aggressive one designed around the forceful abilities to project real power wherever needed the forces are the I students that allows us to make war. And defend ourselves with real teeth. Now tell those bloody dockyards that the navy needs those ships. And to do all it can do, in order for the fleet to do it’s job.

Frank62
Frank62 (@guest_810276)
1 month ago

So much could go very badly! But it’s good Irans assault has been neutralised. Maybe payback will hasten the fall of the mad mullah regime & Iranians can be free.
Poor Ukraine must be a bit wounded that nobody helps her out so much when she’s under daily bombardment.

The CCP must be overjoyed at the potential for Ukraine & the middle east blowing up, presenting the best posssible distraction for them to assault Taiwan.

Last edited 1 month ago by Frank62
Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810385)
1 month ago
Reply to  Frank62

I’m not sure frank..if I was the CCP I would want the west fat and happy until 2027, with my allies all ready to take advantage of the chaos that would happen after the invasion of tiawan…or for it to have kicked of in Europe and the Middle East closer to to own timeframe for Taiwan ( 2027+)…If Ukraine and the Middle East had kicked off in 2026-2027 I suspect the CCP would have been very happy…as is it’s to soon for their timetable.

Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810460)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Or an exhausted depleted West that won’t be too interested in Taiwan once all the top end chip fab isn’t there any more?

I’m being cynical but it is another train of thought?

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810476)
1 month ago

Ultimate excellence lies not in winning every battle, but in defeating the enemy without ever fighting. The highest form of warfare is to attack strategy itself”

Mao Zedong took a lot of inspiration from the art of war.in his way of fighting war….and destroying your enemies will to fight before you go kinetic is something Mao believed in and the CCP consider Mao to be the ultimate military genius ( he was pretty good and can be considered one of the best) and Maos teachings are essential the CCP playbook…

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810540)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

good insights Jonathan- makes me wonder how the Chinese politburo are viewing current events.

Jon
Jon (@guest_810280)
1 month ago

I wonder if Netanyahu will bargain with the US: support us in Rafah and we won’t respond to Iran. I know there will be deaths if Israel goes into Rafah, but I’m begining to think the civilian death toll will be less than them hanging around putting on pressure to get the hostages. The main causes of deaths in wars like this are disease and malnutrition. Hamas have rejected the latest proposals and the sooner it’s over and the rebuilding can start, the better.

ABCRodney
ABCRodney (@guest_810297)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

Better alternative would be the opposite, support us when we hit Iran back and we will just sit back and maintain the status quo in Gaza. Hamas is bottled up, it will take weeks for the temporary port to be built so nothing really to gain. Hamas will not hand over the Hostages anytime soon and are just hunkered down. On the other hand Israel could whack the power behind all its (and Americas) troubles in the ME. They are quite capable of blowing up arms factories, military bases, arms depots and communications in Iran. And that helps Ukraine as… Read more »

Jon
Jon (@guest_810309)
1 month ago
Reply to  ABCRodney

You may be right. It’s all crystal ball gazing and mine’s distinctly foggy. I’m worried that Gaza won’t be the end of it and Hezbollah will kick off when Gaza ends, just to keep wearing Israel down. Perhaps war with Iran is better sooner than later. Very hard to know.

A potential issue for Israel is another Suez, with Israel attacking with the nod from Biden, then Biden dropping out because of elections and Trump. Unless there’s real cross-party appetite in the US for war against Iran, I can’t see Israel going all in.

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810426)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

Israel will do anything It feels is necessary to defend itself I’ve no doubt that if anyone would Go nuclear, it would be them Israel and the idiot organisation that started this conflict, lit a touch paper that the surrounding areas cannot put out.

Last edited 1 month ago by Andy reeves
Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810384)
1 month ago
Reply to  ABCRodney

It’s finally got to be a good opportunity to put the mullahs to the sword

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810539)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

make ’em convert to Judaism- that will end the thing😉

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810406)
1 month ago
Reply to  ABCRodney

That would mean putting the western nations having to put boots out on the ground and the whole part of the whole world will go utterly t*TS up as we’ve expected it for to discuss form far too long bran should be reminded of the shock and awe that was visited on Saddam could have t them too im surprised that the U.S HAS ALREADY DETACHED ANOTHER CSG to the region. The U.K should be considering the same thing.

Last edited 1 month ago by Andy reeves
Supportive Bloke
Supportive Bloke (@guest_810461)
1 month ago
Reply to  ABCRodney

I agree.

What was demonstrated last night was that Iranian system can be taken out at will.

I think the IRG will be quite scared now as they know they fired the first 100 shots and they misfired.

The return 100 shots won’t misfire and will be reverting to their capabilities.

As you say this will help Ukraine.

Oh and make everyone, who didn’t already, realise that their weapons are useless against massed Western systems.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810553)
1 month ago

Indeed, the reality is Iran can only really strike Israel via its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas..as long as Jordan and Egypt remain essentially neutral and Hezbollah don’t wish to risk a full war Iran is a bit toothless….although we have to remember Iran has launched some effective ballistic missile strikes against U.S. and other targets…it’s still generally got to fire everything across Jordan…. One big problem would be if Iran can stir up enough regional problems in Jordan to undermine its government…the Jordanian govern is pro western…its population is not..this is a tension Iran can work on… Also if it… Read more »

FormerUSAF
FormerUSAF (@guest_810576)
1 month ago
Reply to  ABCRodney

The intriguing feature of the current crisis may be that Iran has apparently eschewed an opportunity to enrich uranium to weapons grade. One could speculate re the lack of Iranian comprehension of the NK strategy/model. Delivery system design may be problematic, but there are probably nuke weapon states willing to provide clandestine assistance (e.g., Orcs, ChiComs, nutbag NKs, possibly Pakistanis). Dunno, deem it to be damned curious…🤔

DaveyB.
DaveyB. (@guest_810667)
1 month ago
Reply to  FormerUSAF

Sadly if Iran do produce weapons grade plutonium and a delivery vehicle. There is still the chance that Iran can deliver a dirty bomb, even if the nuclear warhead detonation fizzles instead of fissions. This would be enough to irradiate a sizeable area and for a good number of years.

However, you can guarantee that Israel will respond in kind!

FormerUSAF
FormerUSAF (@guest_810694)
1 month ago
Reply to  DaveyB.

Understood. Was attempting to convey curiosity re why Iran has not emulated the North Korean model of nuclear weapons development.

SailorBoy
SailorBoy (@guest_810715)
1 month ago
Reply to  FormerUSAF

The “We don’t know where it’s going, we don’t know what it will do when it gets there, but if it scares the enemy as much as it does our engineers we’ve won the war” model of nuclear weapons development?

FormerUSAF
FormerUSAF (@guest_810894)
1 month ago
Reply to  SailorBoy

Exactly. 😁👍

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810405)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

Neten yahoo? Israel will remind everybody that it has the bomb. And if there is likely to nation more likely to use it, it will. Be them

Last edited 1 month ago by Andy reeves
Jon
Jon (@guest_810534)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

Israel has had nuclear capability since the late 60s and has fought several existential wars since then. It has never threatened to use its nukes.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810554)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jon

That’s probably not true…there is pretty good evidence that Israel has both planned to deploy and threatened the use of them….the Sampson option is though to be the reason the U.S. finally intervened in 73 in that meir Golda threatened the U.S. that Israel would go nuclear… it’s also known that at in the 66 six day war Israel had just completed its first 2 atomic bombs and had planned to deploy into Egypt if Israel fell. as one very radical Zionist put it: “We possess several hundred atomic warheads and rockets and can launch them at targets in all… Read more »

Markam
Markam (@guest_810283)
1 month ago

As of last week both parties are now unified in “When economic conditions allow” on defence spending increases. How about when we actually NEED immediate spending increases as we tumble ever so closer to war every damned day? We need immediate spending, particularly on the navy as the next war we will be primarily a sea based participant as that is our strength. Other European nations except for France and maybe Italy are focused on land and air.

Grant
Grant (@guest_810287)
1 month ago
Reply to  Markam

Spending more on public sector pensions (£54bn) then on defence…

John Clark
John Clark (@guest_810407)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grant

Well hundreds of thousands in the civil sector are still retiring on the old final salary schemes at 55. It always was an insane unaffordable policy, but now we are borrowing ‘vast’ sums to fund our giveaway bonanza economy, going deeper and deeper into the red, it’s looking bloody insane. The economic reset, that has to inevitably come, will come as one hell of a shock to many. Come it will, when we eventually go the world bank cap in hand to bail us out. Here’s a question for Laural and Hardy (Starmer/Sunak), has it been calculated how long we… Read more »

Simon
Simon (@guest_810414)
1 month ago
Reply to  John Clark

Is there an example of anyone retiring in civil serivce at 55 apart from Firefighter, police and the armed forces ?

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810290)
1 month ago
Reply to  Markam

Yes. Funny how HMG has never said that it would only increase spending on the NHS, Education, Social Welfare etc ‘when economic conditions allow’.

Yet they single out Defence – the first duty of Government – to use this phrase – as ifeven a modest increase in Defence spending is an option only after all the social programmes have ben well resourced.

Caspian237
Caspian237 (@guest_810362)
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham M

Beyond the professionals and military enthusiasts too few people really care or would be prepared to accept one iota of personal sacrifice to fund defence much beyond what we have already. Heck, we’re now just giving impoverished people on £70K salaries child benefit to help them look after their children cos they really need that extra tenner a week on top of the £1300 gross per week they are already earning. What chance does defence have in the grand scheme of things?

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810391)
1 month ago
Reply to  Caspian237

im not a lover of universal benefits to be honest…benfits should be a safety net for the poor and those who cannot work.

child benefit was specifically designed to reduce in household poverty in an age where women had little or no control of finances and woman and children could be poor and live in well of households ( cus let’s be honest men have as a group been prone to being arseholes and spending all the.money on beer or golf) …that’s not really a thing anymore……

Last edited 1 month ago by Jonathan
Simon
Simon (@guest_810417)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

the trouble is now you have got a situation where everyone has to have free school meals, because other wise the one who can claim it are stigmatised or that’s the thinking

John Clark
John Clark (@guest_810411)
1 month ago
Reply to  Caspian237

Absolutely, let’s not forget the £600 winter payments per individual pensioner, for the hundreds of thousands who live abroad …

The nasty Tories and their tight fisted austerity 🤔🤔😵‍💫

Caspian237
Caspian237 (@guest_810447)
1 month ago
Reply to  John Clark

It’s all rather depressing really, a battle for resources. If there is something on the table you might as well take it. Don’t have any illusion that the pot hole on your street is going to get filled in or you won’t have to wait as long for a hospital appointment in the future. No, someone else will have reached out and grasped it for the benefit of them and theirs at the expense of you and yours. I wouldn’t even blame the political parties, they are just a mirror of ourselves.

Last edited 1 month ago by Caspian237
Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810535)
1 month ago
Reply to  Caspian237

I agree that the chances of a boost to defence spending are nil.

Ben Wallace managed to achieve 2 additional boosts to spending – but Grant Shapps has none of the bargaining skills.

Jim
Jim (@guest_810383)
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham M

They have been saying exactly that for every year since 2008.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810388)
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham M

To be fair..at the moment neither parties can promise spending on anything..as they simply get hit with the unfunded spending stick…defence has the added issue that almost none of the electorate are interested in it and a large percentage are actually actively against increasing defence spending… we live an an eco chamber of people who all see the value of defence….most people see it as a negative.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810606)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Thanks. I suppose such people don’t insure their house or car too!

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810635)
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham M

Apparently some people think if you don’t have an armed forces worth a dam no one will attack you…people seem to think wars only happen to nations if they have effective armed forces and having an effective armed forces is tantamount to warmongering.

John Clark
John Clark (@guest_810408)
1 month ago
Reply to  Graham M

They don’t care mate, only interested in their 5 year Westminster cycle, nothing more…..

Defence doesn’t figure with 90% of the population, that equals few votes, so no money.

It’s that simple.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810610)
1 month ago
Reply to  John Clark

So true. But we will never be ready for intense and sustained major peer-peer conflict without rearmament now and on a significant scale.

Jon
Jon (@guest_810310)
1 month ago
Reply to  Markam

Economic circumstances don’t just allow, they demand. Wars do no favours to our economy as we have seen in Ukraine. Sunak can keep fingers crossed it’ll all blow up after he’s gone, but Starmer doesn’t have that luxury. If he’s not there to the end of the decade, I’ll be very surprised.

Dodger
Dodger (@guest_810340)
1 month ago
Reply to  Markam

I think benefits are probably more priority today with the amount of glass backs,wokes,and snowflakes, defence spending will be non existent as we lean on the USA to much ask anyone who was in Afghanistan camp bastion the breeze block hotel

Andy reeves
Andy reeves (@guest_810389)
1 month ago
Reply to  Markam

Remember that we could treble the budget for defence today and the impact of a real increase in the U.Kwouldnt be seen for a decade. Successive governments since the Falklands war have not only butchered the forces, but theyvedone the same thing to me nations abilities to manufacture.to meet what may be needed if the world goes ‘hot’

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810538)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andy reeves

hhhm , Andy I’d suggest the butchering of the UK armed forces occurred post 1990 and not after the Falkland war. Nonetheless, your point is off course spot on.

Grant
Grant (@guest_810286)
1 month ago

This was the obvious consequence of Isreal attacking the Iranian embassy in Damascus which was a needless escalation. The second they did that we should have said ‘we are out’. Both sides are f*ckwits and we should avoid getting dragged into the whole thing.

Monkey spanker
Monkey spanker (@guest_810357)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grant

I agree Israel has been chipping away at Iran numerous times. Strike here and there. You would think they have enough going on. The current bunch in power really are some of the worst government war mongers. Israel could try and get the West Bank statehood, stop expanding into the West Bank and actually try to grow stronger together. For those who say it’s not possible they would be similar to the people who said peace with Egypt, Jordan was not possible. Anything is possible. Israel is then in a position to show the people of Gaza what they can… Read more »

Grant
Grant (@guest_810430)
1 month ago
Reply to  Monkey spanker

Exactly. What Hamas did was abhorrent but it hit the response they were looking for just as Israel was about to be accepted by most Arab state.

Winning wars is about partnerships and soft power and being seen as the ones in the right, and Israel doesn’t help itself in this regard.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810597)
1 month ago
Reply to  Grant

One of my friends just last night mentioned to me that Israel under a previous Netanyahu regime actually invited Hamas in to govern Gaza post Arafat and the PLO as the Gazans were unable to govern themselves. I find this quite amazing if true. Does anyone here know the background to Hamas in Gaza? And correct me if I’m wrong but aren’t Hamas and the Iranian’s not “Arab” but “Persian”? Interesting sphere of influence by Iran today which must have historical roots? Need someone to fill in some history gaps here.

Last edited 1 month ago by Quentin D63
Peter S
Peter S (@guest_810613)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Hamas are Sunni Muslims so support from Iran is purely to threaten Israel. Hezbollah is a Shiite organisation so Iranian support is a more natural fit with Iran’s wider conflict with Sunni majority Arab states. The Syrian regime, although generally more tolerant, has been largely Alawite led, a sect seen as closer to Shia Islam, hence Iranian support for Assad.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810621)
1 month ago
Reply to  Peter S

Thanks Peter. It’s a right ol’ mixed bag in the “muddle” east!

Paul.P
Paul.P (@guest_810625)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Wiki has good entries on Iran, its history and unique culture. Ethnically it is not Arab. It can claim to be something of a cradle of civilisation. It has an ancient BC and AD culture ( which retains elements of Zoroastrian and Menachian traditions) which predates its conquest by Islam. Significantly the language is Farsi, not Arabic. I think it considers itself a cut above the other nations in the Middle East and did not take kindly to its Shah being an Anglo- American oil puppet :-).

Last edited 1 month ago by Paul.P
Steve
Steve (@guest_810336)
1 month ago

I wonder where the jets were launched from, considering the carriers were not deployed

DMJ01
DMJ01 (@guest_810341)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Cyprus

frank
frank (@guest_810359)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Flight Radar showed a Typhoon and Tanker yesterday flying out of Cyprus, they flew over Jordan and beyond.

Monkey spanker
Monkey spanker (@guest_810360)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

There have been aircraft/drones in the RAF base in Cyprus for years operating over Iraq and Syria taking out ISIS.
It’s one of the most useful bases the U.K. has outside of the U.K.

Steve
Steve (@guest_810361)
1 month ago
Reply to  Monkey spanker

It’s a long flight from Cyprus, so either the UK knew the attacks were incoming or just got lucky

frank
frank (@guest_810367)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Or…. the Slow flying Drones coming from so far away were easily detected in advance and engaged. It’s not like Intel would have been lacking.

Steve
Steve (@guest_810369)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

Would guess just in the area as the US has a carrier and assault ship in the area so had plenty of available assets for the job.

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_810373)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

You didn’t need the skills of a Clairvoyant to know an attack was coming,the Iranians have been broadcasting the fact all week,with the assets from OP Shader available it was a relatively esay way to contribute.

Steve
Steve (@guest_810392)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

Iran told the US 72 hours in advance it was coming but big difference between knowing its coming and knowing the timing.

I guess your right typhoons are a lot faster than a drone and both had a fair distance to travel.

frank
frank (@guest_810387)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

The Typhoon was escorted by a Tanker….. the very fact it was Visible on Flight Radar was rather telling in itself…. As i said, Iran is a long way from Israel and those drones are very slow so plenty of time to react given advanced Intel. What is also quite telling is that the Transponders were still on for so long. Games being played out me thinks.

Steve
Steve (@guest_810394)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

I’m sure if it wasn’t for lack of escorts ands supply ships that a carrier would have been deployed months ago.

Spyinthesky
Spyinthesky (@guest_810466)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

I was watching the news last night and they were saying any drones that survive the US and general aerial picket line would be arriving in about 4 hours so yep quite a warning, the ballistic missiles were already arriving by then of course.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810752)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

The Intel came from the Iranians, all except for the exact day/time of launch.

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810432)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

No luck involved at all. We have places that monitor much if not all of the Middle East. That doesn’t include the satellite coverage and any HUMINT sources. That, plus the fact the Iranians announced they were coming and used slow moving drones.

Spyinthesky
Spyinthesky (@guest_810464)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

Well by all accounts the Iranians told the US before launching them so we may have got a hint where to station our aircraft. On the flank in the North is my guess as these drones can be very sneaky.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810598)
1 month ago
Reply to  Spyinthesky

Makes me think that Israel and the West must have a pretty good idea where these drones and missiles must be being launched from inside Iran.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810751)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

They were doing Op SHADER anyway.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810750)
1 month ago
Reply to  Steve

RAF Akrotiri, Cyprus. Same place as they were launched from on the anti-Houthi mission.

Andrew D
Andrew D (@guest_810345)
1 month ago

So is our government going wake ⏰ up now probably not 🙄 🇬🇧

Steve
Steve (@guest_810396)
1 month ago
Reply to  Andrew D

Well based on the post a day ago about the defence budget cuts even in spite of the Ukraine war, I would guess this will trigger further cuts.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810354)
1 month ago

That’s a lot of drones! Time to top up missile stocks and the defence budget! 😁

Challenger
Challenger (@guest_810374)
1 month ago

ASRAAM rather than guns kills I’m assuming.

Would be nice if we started to take defence seriously….case in point RAF Akrotiri should have Sky Sabre rather than a fence and a 19 year old sentry on the gate.

frank
frank (@guest_810390)
1 month ago
Reply to  Challenger

Who are the potential enemies though ? Iran have nothing able to reach that far…. Russia ? .. China ? ….. Argentina ? ….. Yemen ? ….. Hamas ? ….

Challenger
Challenger (@guest_810401)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

Iran has cruise missiles with the range. But the real point is how complacent the UK has become on defence, assuming problems will remain over the horizon and hoping for the best whilst continually cutting capabilities.

frank
frank (@guest_810428)
1 month ago
Reply to  Challenger

Yes and possibly you might be right but I was just giving you an answer based upon your comment. Personally I think the UK needs an immediate and well overdue hike in defence enhancement…. I’m not talking about Expenditure … I’m talking Capability…. it’s something that Tax payers have long been fleeced by and now we need to get to grips with the fat cat’s and their Greed …… The % of GB GDP is astonishingly low when you take into account the actual % of Equipment procured….. Snouts in troughs springs to mind…. we have a corrupt Elite ….… Read more »

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810557)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

Hezbollah..250km from Lebanon to Cyprus..fateh 110 and m600 ballistic missiles have a range of around 300km range …they also have a shed load of scud b/c and d all with a 300km range… it’s though that Hezbollah could have well over 1000 even a couple of thousand ballistic missiles with a range of between 250-500kms… they have been saving them for a rainy day with the Israelis but I’m sure they could tear a few away from their preferred target of mass murder and throw some the RAFs way…. We really should have anti ballistic missiles defences for the sovereign… Read more »

Cognitio68
Cognitio68 (@guest_810633)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

I agree for the need for GBAD for Cyprus. It’s a target rich environment and well within the range of a number of bad actors who just love throwing missile around. We need to nail a politician to a wall and get them to explain why leaving British forces vulnerable is the most optimal outcome for his government. The only thing it’s achieving is keeping the Treasury happy. There is heightened risk here and if people die because of this we need to make sure a few political careers go down with it.

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_810870)
1 month ago
Reply to  Cognitio68

Cyprus is obviously a divided Island, of which UK Armed Forces are merely tenants, both the Cypriot Government and the Turkish authorities have sizable Forces of their own there, both of these will have extensive GBAD assets. It would be easy to politically confuse an attack against UK bases to an attack on the whole Island of Cyprus, there is a difference which means it is unlikely to happen.

Cognitio68
Cognitio68 (@guest_810903)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

Paul, We’re not tenants. The bases are Sovereign to the UK. They were set up in the treaty of establishment and have as much legal legitimacy as the Republic of Cyprus itself. Whilst it’s true both the ROC and Turkey have some GBAD it’s not configured or located to defend the Akrotiri peninsular. It’s certainly not of a scale necessary to defend a mass drone attack launched from Lebanon. Why would Iranian backed Hezbollah want to attack Akrotiri? I think a lot of people could tell you why.

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_810990)
1 month ago
Reply to  Cognitio68

I know the bases are Sovereign,but they still reside in territory of the Cypriot Government,the word tennant is not incorrect in that respect !!!.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810753)
1 month ago
Reply to  frank

Iran has a lot of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles that can reach Cyprus!

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810584)
1 month ago
Reply to  Challenger

Just speculating, but ifASRAAM they’d need to more than 2-4 per plane, maybe a “beast mode”, up to 10?

DaveyB.
DaveyB. (@guest_810678)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Currently Typhoon is only cleared to carry 4 ASRAAMs on it two outer most underwing hard points. Studies were done to mount twin launchers on one of the hard points to boost the number of ASRAAMs to 6. But the study was shelved on cost grounds.

It may be something the RAF need to revisit, if ASRAAM is going to be the primary means of taking out drones, as it’s half the price of a Meteor!

Last edited 1 month ago by DaveyB.
Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810891)
1 month ago
Reply to  DaveyB.

Yes and even for the F35Bs if doable.

Posse Comitatus
Posse Comitatus (@guest_810404)
1 month ago

One thing I’ve taken from this is that , at first glance at least, Western defensive technology and tactics were far superior to the Iranian missile and drone technology.

Simon
Simon (@guest_810420)
1 month ago

yep, numbers are not everthing

Daniele Mandelli
Daniele Mandelli (@guest_810436)
1 month ago

And I don’t think we have ever revealed all our hand. I’m talking Cyber, EW, and intelligence.

Patrick
Patrick (@guest_810446)
1 month ago

Will Sunak now properly fund the military. What other escalation does he need at this stage.

Spyinthesky
Spyinthesky (@guest_810463)
1 month ago
Reply to  Patrick

Well a Green card does come in handy in times of European conflict.

Grizzler
Grizzler (@guest_810564)
1 month ago
Reply to  Spyinthesky

now now ….😄

Barry Larking
Barry Larking (@guest_810515)
1 month ago

The U.K. and Israel have confirmed the U.K. intercepted ‘missiles’ going into Israel. Significantly Jordan was also involved. Hamas has no support outside Iran and the Kremlin, something the weekly London ‘protesters’ need to learn and inwardly digest.

This international operation was rather impressive. It underlines the need for enlarging defence capability if worse is not to come.

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810754)
1 month ago
Reply to  Barry Larking

Some say the Saudis also helped.

John Fields
John Fields (@guest_810524)
1 month ago

Why are we up front again. We are financially poor and our hands are in all kinds of warlike actions. The money is required at home for the poor, the NHS and supporting welfare projects. I never thought that my outlook would change , but it has. We are a warlike nation and it seems that our politicians have lost interest in the people and are more interested in hostile commitments. I am 97 and I served as a merchant seaman in the war. I never thought that I would say this. I am no longer proud of my country.”

Graham M
Graham M (@guest_810755)
1 month ago
Reply to  John Fields

How is a G7 nation ‘financially poor’?

Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810526)
1 month ago

Must suck to be Ukraine right now. Imagine getting baited into a war with Russia with promises of support, then NATO abandons you. When you see the collective West bust a nut to shoot down anything heading to a country that is nothing to do with Europe while they won’t resupply your artillery or air defence. Hahaha, absolute belters.

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810537)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

Id wager Putin is encouraging Iran to escalate

Quill
Quill (@guest_810542)
1 month ago
Reply to  klonkie

Shouldn’t have given a great excuse to escalate by attacking an embassy. As usual with Western media, history only starts after their aggression.

klonkie
klonkie (@guest_810555)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quill

spot on ! 👌

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810560)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quill

To be fair pretty much every weapon that has been fired at isreal by Hamas and Hezbollah has come from Iran with the express purpose of being fired into Israel to kill some Jews…

Paul.P
Paul.P (@guest_810612)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quill

It was done to lance the boil. Iran is a abscess that needs to be drained.

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810614)
1 month ago
Reply to  klonkie

Evening Klonkie. And he must be taking some notes too for closer home.

Klonkie
Klonkie (@guest_810656)
1 month ago
Reply to  Quentin D63

Hey Quentin how are things? I think you are on the money!

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810559)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

I don’t think is appropriate to say Ukraine got baited into a war with Russia..Russia invaded Ukraine with the aim of conquest..Ukraine did not invite invasion or even undertook a preemptive self defence strike…it got invaded pure and simple.

Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810565)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Ukraine was baited big time, starting way back with the CIA colour revolution. The US interfere in more elections than anyone else out there. Ukraine would have been intact and safe, they just had to stop flirting with NATO. Even Zelensky was elected as the anti-war candidate but he got played by Boris the destroyer. Hopefully Ukraine have woken up to the duplicitous nature of the west and will find a way to an acceptable or tolerable peace. They should remember that to be an enemy of the US is very dangerous, to be an ally is deadly.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810568)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

so Ukraine would have been safe as long as Ukraine did exactly as Putin wanted it to do…that’s really warped.

Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810648)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

You can’t seriously think that neighbouring countries can be completely autonomous in action from each other without conflict? Would Canada or Mexico have been permitted to join the Warsaw Pact?

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810652)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

Yes they can…..it’s called sovereignty…as long as one side does not interfere with the other’s sovereignty they should as a rule “fuck off” and leave each other be…does France have the right to tell the UK it has to be a member of the EU….if we wanted to join the Shanghai co-operation group that’s our business not Frances…Belarus has a defence pact with Russia and is having nuclear weapons..its on the boarder of Poland…quick Poland needs to invade it…..trying to justify what Russia is doing in Ukraine is a bit difficult…Putin has a habit of invading nations that don’t do… Read more »

Luke Rogers
Luke Rogers (@guest_810673)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

It’s a border, a boarder would be a paying guest I think. You have a very naive interpretation of how the real world works. As for Putin, the Baltic states survived many years outside of NATO with no Russian aggression. As did Finland. From looking at maps, the Russian border hasn’t moved West, but NATO has advanced several hundreds of miles to the East.

Jonathan
Jonathan (@guest_810675)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

brilliant, you seem to be trying to justify a simple land grab by Putin..for various reasons he believes Ukraine should be part of Russia…legally and historically Ukraine is a separate nation and wishes to remain as such….I’m not naive..I just don’t believe that you can blame the invasion of Ukraine on anyone other than Putin….if Ukraine had in anyway attacked Russia first I would not hold that same view..sometimes it is one side that is blatantly a land grabbing imperialist..other times there is blame on both sides… Hitler used the very same set of excuses as Putin for his invasions… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Jonathan
SailorBoy
SailorBoy (@guest_810712)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

But very few of the people West of Russia want to be Russian. Somehow Putin has contrived that quite a lot of the people East of NATO wanted to be in NATO. The Baltic States survived next to Russia by making it clear that if push came to shove they would never achieve anything against Russia in a war. As soon as they began asserting independence and moving away from the Russian economy there was a threat from Russia. Finland survived by a position of armed neutrality with a clear red line on their borders prompting a tough conventional defence.… Read more »

John Fields
John Fields (@guest_810778)
1 month ago
Reply to  Luke Rogers

“duplicitous nature of the west” .I love that , because that does sum up the west. And also “ to be an ally is deadly”. You are spot on with both these comments. Beautiful.

Paul.P
Paul.P (@guest_810602)
1 month ago
Reply to  Jonathan

Checkout rferl dot org. The Ukrainians had the temerity to declare their unique identity in 2019 causing Moscow Patriarch Kirill (who is a big KGB mate of Putin), to fall out of his pram. “Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew of Constantinople has signed a decree granting autocephaly, or independence, to the Orthodox Church in Ukraine, ending more than 330 years of Russian religious control in Ukraine.  The ceremony on January 5 in Istanbul, which is considered the spiritual headquarters of Orthodox Christianity, was attended by Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko.  The decree, or “tomos,” will now be handed over to the head of… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by Paul.P
Geoff Roach
Geoff Roach (@guest_810552)
1 month ago

Any members of the UK’S political heirarchy, of any and all parties, taking any notice of the stae of the world. No. Probably not. 💤

Cognitio68
Cognitio68 (@guest_810600)
1 month ago

Our political leaders need to find some time for some serious introspection. There is a self evident cognitive dysfunction at the heart of government. This was proven in spades by the actions taken by government during Covid and we can see it again today by it’s stubborn refusal/inability to redirect resources back to defence. When irrational decisions are made by a decision making body we have to look hard at why that is? It may be the case that the individual decision makers are psychologically incapable of changing direction. The change of direction is so out of their life experience… Read more »

Simon
Simon (@guest_810620)
1 month ago

Dangerous times, Cameron on radio this morning. We won’t support Israel attack on Iran. One line of thought is Iran has failed in its major attack and is weak, the other is the taboo is crossed an Isreal can now be attacked.

Colin
Colin (@guest_810624)
1 month ago

Why has UK not bought Patriot or Iron Dome even Switzerland has bought it if we keep sticking our nose into other countries war we have nothing to protect the UK all the Type 45 are in refit

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_810631)
1 month ago
Reply to  Colin

Simply the huge costs of having such systems vs the perceived risks of not having them.

Cognitio68
Cognitio68 (@guest_810636)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

In risk management risks are assessed as high and therefore actionable if one of 2 conditions are met. Probability is high or the impact of the event is high. Whilst in the past probability of an air attack was low the impact of one has always been been high. Pulling the effective strength of the RAF and the RN into a handful of undefended bases means the impact of a surprise air attack would be excessively high. You could effectively lose 2 of the 3 armed services in a bad afternoon. That is an unsustainable outcome and it should have… Read more »

Quentin D63
Quentin D63 (@guest_810682)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

They should be able to see the risk for the trees by now! Everyone here on UKDJ can! Lol 😁

Last edited 1 month ago by Quentin D63
Colin
Colin (@guest_811110)
1 month ago

MP Tobias Ellwood has tasked UK to consider IRON DOME £800 MILLION so if we take that out of the Aid Budget of 4.3 Billion that still leaves 3.500,000,000

Paul T
Paul T (@guest_811487)
1 month ago
Reply to  Colin

Totally wrong system for the UK, we have what that does already for less money.

Patrick C
Patrick C (@guest_811875)
1 month ago
Reply to  Paul T

agreed. the USMC bought iron dome to put on guam then quickly shelved it as it wouldn’t be of much use against high end cruise missiles let alone ballistic missiles- its made for cheap hamas rockets but not much else. Patriot would be the best system for UK… and if the funds were there THAAD as well.

Colin
Colin (@guest_811550)
1 month ago

Mark Francois, the former armed forces minister who sits on parliament’s Defence Committee, ‘We have nothing remotely comparable to the very comprehensive Israeli Iron Dome system, bar a very few missies, with only limited range. i.e Sky Sabre 25Km range Patriot 160Km we have no E3D aircraft .E7 AIRCRAFT will not be operational for another 3 years Nothing to protect the North of England we have 4 Typhoons on standby Iran launched 185 drones and 36 cruise missiles. We need Iron Dome / David sling or Arrow 3 Germany has just purchased

Patrick C
Patrick C (@guest_811877)
1 month ago
Reply to  Colin

not really an “or” situation with those. Arrow 3 is much like THAAD or SM-3 in that it can only take out ballistic missiles- its warhead is designed for exo-atmospheric intercepts so you’d need something to supplement it to use for cruise missiles, unless you want to rely on QRA fighters for those then you could just go for arrow 3.

dc647
dc647 (@guest_812168)
1 month ago

This is one we shouldn’t get involved in Israel/Iran we’ve got too much commitment in Ukraine/Russia we are not a global power anymore we should stick to our own back garden Russia is more of a threat. Israel is not in NATO we should concentrate on the greater threat to the security of the UK and Europe. The US is Israels biggest weapon supplier then Germany. Let the US be the sole interceptor. Remember all the UK personnel killed in Afghanistan then the US pulled out without really consulting the UK the last 20 years British brave personnel died and… Read more »

Last edited 1 month ago by dc647