British jets are providing air support “ready to defend the region” and the move is being described by the Ministry of Defence as “a robust response to Russian aggression, contributing to the security of Europe”.
The Typhoons, armed with state-of-the-art missiles and a full suite of defensive aids, are patrolling NATO airspace over Poland and Romania, “once more demonstrating the UK’s unwavering commitment to the NATO Alliance”.
Air Vice-Marshal Phil Robinson, Air Officer Commanding 11 Group, was quoted as saying:
“RAF Typhoons working in partnership with our allies are continuing to demonstrate our commitment to NATO. We stand ready to defend Europe and the Atlantic region against further aggression. I am incredibly proud of the courage and commitment of our aircrew operating across the region and of all our personnel who are supporting them.”
You can read more from the RAF here.
Britain to increase fighter jet presence in Poland and Romania
The Prime Minister’s official spokesman said:
“We are increasing our air policing contribution to NATO from RAF Akrotiri and the UK to help protect our NATO allies. So, this is a defensive capability designed to protect the airspace of our NATO allies… they will not operate in Ukrainian or Russian airspace. Just to emphasise, this isn’t additional air support, this is the air support already committed to NATO doing additional activities.”
Especially following Germany’s announcement re funding for the military, I wonder there will be a similar UK announcement soon? It certainly seems as though the current situation should be looked on as a wake up call as far as defence cuts go, and perhaps, just perhaps, it will be decided that it would be a good idea to be able to send more to defend against Russia…
The whole defence review is obsolete now, so all assumptions need to be reassessed now.
Hopefully that includes looking at replacing warrior and starting to up arm our forces.
They might even call for a new review to be completed asap.
Too much to wish for – Army to gradually go up to about 120,000, double the amount of artillery we have and upgrade ALL of the Challengers?
That might be a little wishful, thinking 😄 I’d be happy if they reversed the cuts and re-committed to 82K full-time as a starting point.
Yep, same page mate.
Slowly slowly catch the monkey, not going all BAOR.
Yes we do actually need the right programs, a lot of it will be about building more depth around what we have already and replacing some obvious holes.
As far as I can see Russian tactics involve long drawn out coulombs using roads and largely stationary on them. Drones, ISR teams and long range precision fire is all you need which is exactly what the army is investing in. More of that for sure, 120,000 infantry men is a waste if time for anything other than colonial policing.
You could see with the right tech in the correct places how vulnerable armoured vehicles are in the way they are being used in ukraine.
Although the army appears to be getting cut in numbers its actually just getting confirmation that the new number is all that are in post. Whether as many people just don’t want to be in the army or there are faults in recruitment I don’t know. Could raising the number actually make any difference?
Satellite pictures over night of a Russian column circa 30-40km long but only using one side of the road. Surely if they want to get everything in place driving on the wrong side of the road also that no one’s using would get things in place twice as quick or am I missing something obvious?!
Bear in mind that the army has more than just infantry. In fact, the infantry component is only about a quarter of the army – so if the army has 120,000 men, only 30,000 of them would be infantry, possibly a lot less if other arms are beefed up more than they are now.
I hope you are assauged that Labour are behind NATO and re-arming.
The EU have gone full mental and I wonder if UKR will get former SVK upgraded Mig29s.
Interesting times, stay safe.
Yes the easy bit would be not making the planned cuts and opening the funding taps on some programmes that are already in place. Then it’s starting a proper 10 year type plan, with an assumption of the need to fight a major war in that timeframe.
Exactly
Not sure an increase to the army is possible, considering the recruitment issues.
That is more of a pay and conditions issue – both solvable.
I’m sure fixing both of those will help, but I think it’s a wider issue. During the cold war people signed up to see the world, now they have Ryanair. It’s a issue that militaries are having globally, not just the uk. Additionally two messy wars in Iraq/afgan also don’t help.
Also increasing pay, results in extra cost, which would likely swollow up extra funds and give none for extra numbers.
Yes two different sources has said that our defence spending is greater than the Russians (I thought the first a global military spending organisation must have been wrong tbh) but the second was a UK military expert this morning so I now accept the matter. So it just shows how costly it is for a Western nation to get bang for buck from military spending, clearly a very large amount has to go on personnel, pensions and professional safety monitoring, maintenance, production and project costs et al that simply barely exist in a State like Russia. How we make best… Read more »
I had to check that, as I was surprised also. I guess another factor is the sheer amount of equipment still existing from soviet era. We only keep the latest shinny kit, which Russia has multiple generations of their kit still in service. It might not be cutting edge, but can still do a job. Atleast on paper it can, what happens over the next few weeks will be telling.
Interestingly Nursing had a major issue with recruiting…3 years of hard training..followed by crap hours! PTSD, dead people and only average pay tended to put people off….come the pandemic and lots of media pictures of nurses falling apart in overcrowded ITUs and we have never had so many people apply to be student nurses…..it was showing how important the job is that has driven recruitment. I bet it will be the same for the armed forces. I think a lot of our population could not really see the point of the armed force’s ( the public did not understand the… Read more »
If it was up to me, I would happily pay another 10% tax to cover essential workers getting decent salaries, but it won’t happen. The average voter, votes for the party that talks about tax cuts. Combined with tax raises seem to always target the poorer part of the country, which never makes any sense to me, and taxing the poor more is clearly a no go.
That’s ok if u have the 10% spare tho. Many do but I was speaking to a working mum of 2 at Tesco today and she got paid on Friday and tax credits on Monday and after bills she has £18 for shopping this week. Prices are sky rocketing just now. Hopefully it’s not the same for defence products or raises will be needed to keep pace.
For sure, hence the point on lowered paid people.
Just increase the 40% tax bracket to 50% or add a new bracket above 40%, so the wealthier pays a bit more. Can cap it at a certain level, to avoid scaring off the super rich, which we do kinda need to make jobs.
Registered Nurse in the US here. Pay is crappy unless you take a contract somewhere far away. Being that you can make 200-300K on some of those contracts is pretty cool but you on the road all the time in a different city every 3 months, which might appeal to some but not me. Generally RNs make 50-70K. Which I believe is way below for what that job requires. I started a Amazon business to make extra money. Now doing 250K a month in sales. Probably leave the nursing field soon, Honestly don’t know why I haven’t at this point.
Saw a TV advert for Royal recruitment last night… trying to remember when I last saw any TV adverts.
Again, if there are spare Army PIDs they should be via’d to Royal and ringfenced from RN.
I imagine recruitment ads have to be across a broad range of media. the tv, YouTube TikTok, bus stops, job centres, schools etc etc.
Tell them they can drive a tank, shoot and blow stuff up.
It would be good to see no cuts to our Challenger tank numbers and all upgraded to Challenger 3.
I would start with buying active defense for all armoured vehicles. This war has shown how vulnerable even MBTs are to anti tank missiles.
Please no, we know how it will go. The gov will talk about extra capability to fight a modern threat, whilst cutting capabilities all over the place again.
Indeed, could not agree more! Let’s start by retaining and upgrading Tranche 1 Typhoons(yes, they can be upgraded, its just expensive) and return order for E7’s to 5 and retain Hercs. Fit Type 31 with Mk41 Vls at build and immediately begin purchase of new Anti-ship missiles that can be launched from Type 23, Type 26, Type 31 and possibly Type 45, plus P8 and F35B. Purchase should include Tomahawk Block V. We also need to take a long hard look at the Army and upgrade every Challenger we still possess, sort out requirement for new mobile heavy artillery and… Read more »
I’d like to see new typhoons ordered instead, it would keep the workforce busy until tempest is nearer and they would have the new radar.
Couldn’t agree more on the anti ship missles and E7s.
The army needs to change how it procures, before anything is ordered but I agree again.
As an amateur, my wish would be going down the cheap drone route, we need numbers and I think it’s the only realistic way.
The Tranche 1 Typhonns are less than half way through their expected lives, withdrawing then is a complete waste, specially bearing in mind they are still fine for QRA/Air Defence duties.
The problem is training crew on T1.
It is so different to T2 & T3 that there isn’t full pilot interoperability.
See my post in reply to Paul42
Keep the Tranche 1s in storage, the Ukrainians will need new aircraft when this is over.
When this is over there will be a Russian puppet government in place like Belarus and they won’t want our Typhoons
Only IF the Russians win.
If the Ukrainians can keep up the fight the regime change may happen in Moscow, not Kyiv.
Wishful thinking, I can’t honestly see anyone toppling Putin….
That always seems the case with authoritarian dictators,
until it happens.
“The 2015 Defence Review had set aside the Tranche 1 jets for air defence duties as well as aggressor training work. We will enhance the new military flying training system with further investment in synthetic training that will deliver more capable pilots more quickly and more efficiently.” https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/24-typhoon-aircraft-to-be-retired-by-2025/ “The Ministry of Defence (MOD) has awarded BAE Systems contracts valued at more than £220m to deliver advanced synthetic training for pilots training to fly Typhoon, one of the world’s leading combat aircraft.” https://www.baesystems.com/en-uk/article/multi-million-pound-investment-in-synthetic-training-capability-for-typhoon-pilots “Pilots and engineers who operate the UK’s C-17 Globemaster aircraft are to benefit from world-leading interactive training, following… Read more »
Been reading recently (Twitter so very possibly fake) that Slovakia, Bulgaria and Poland are donating MIG 29 aircraft from there fleet to Ukraine. Now this would be the perfect time to sell (at a low price) T1 Typhoon as replacement aircraft for one of these nations. A much better use for T1 then scrapping.
Th
I think this is more about aircraft that can be flown in straightaway. The Ukrainian’s have Mig 29 trained pilots that just need aircraft to fly
Hi Paul, that is great, my point was if say Bulgaria gave (example only) Ukraine 20 MIG 29, then they are short 20 fast jets. So we give (sell, whatever you like) Bulgaria 20 T1 Typhoon. Yes Bulgaria would have to train on a new type, but they are likely to have time. 🙂
At least that makes sense.
Donate the airframes if we are dumping them anyway.
How do the airframes help without the other bits that make a digger jet?
Or is this a kit built fighter?
Seriously there will be a lot of secret bits on T1 that need to be removed.
Then add the costs of keeping them in the air and they may not be such a friendly gift. Part of the problem the RAF faces is the exorbitant maintenance demands of the fast jets that it has got. The RAF is comparatively well funded.
Poland are definitely modernising.
The issue may be that once you have stripped the really secret UK Eyes Only mods and replaced with standard systems the cost of the T1’s is too high.
The running costs of Typhoon are not cheap and for a smaller airforce may be beyond reach?
Hi Supportive Bloke, true, though I predict most former eastern European countries are right now looking to make significant increases in defense spending.
Hmme
But they are in a different place.
UK is one of the worlds largest and most stable economies. We can easily borrow.
Most of them can’t do that and so rely on military donations.
OK i will be very controversial, we could give them the jets, support their operation through the aid budget.
It’s my final throw of the dice, I’m happy to concede the argument 🙂
Not controversial just very expensive.
As we would have to modify the jets before we gave them away.
Buy it may be the right thing to do.
They are still decent military assets: compared to the Russian junk.
lol a draw then 🙂
Poland operate the F-16. They could donate their Mig 29s to Ukraine and replace with late model F-16s.
I totally agree with that.
USA are likely to be happy to apply F16 to Poland as they are seen as militarily reliable.
100% spot on and they give numbers now not in a couple of years. Order new Tranch 4’s too as they will be needed and gradually build up the fighter force. Also and just as important they need to be placed on many more airfield as all on one base means one bang kills a lot. No idea where the RAF got the idea placing all eggs in one basket from ????
It would be better to sell those Typhoons to another nation and then buy new ones for ourselves.
For the Maritime sphere, increase destroyer/frigate numbers to 32,:48 more F35b’s, 24 Merlins and Wildcat, longterm plan to take sub numbers up to 12 plus 4 Dreadnoughts. Order replacements for HMS Scott, RFA Argus and a dedicated class of support ship for supporting mine warfare. Order another 9 P8s, reinstate in full 3Cdo Brigade including all support units. Keep 42 Cdo in maritime role but reinstate to a full size unit and raise another Commando, 41?
Long term plan to replace the LPDs with two LHDs and 6 multipurpose support ships with floodable docks.
Agreed!
100% agreed
Gets my vote and doable
That gets my vote, especially increasing the numbers of boot necks.
I think you’re on the right track, Paul. We need to look at what improvements can be made in the short-term. There is no time to construct new ships/tanks/aircraft. I saw today that Poland has announced it is buying 250 M1A2 tanks. I think we should consider buying a similar number of tanks from America. The US has 4700 in reserve that could be reactivated. If Russia takes Ukraine, there is a good chance that, in six months or so, they will look to take further action elsewhere. I like the idea of Mk41 for the Type 31s, but adding… Read more »
I’d imagine after seeing the armour in action so far, that artillery, drones and air defence would take priority.
Re armour in action, key point is using it properly… which Russia isn’t!
Spot on
I’m not sure, after seeing the shower of shit currently stuck north of Kiev I think the Royal welsh battle group might be able to take Moscow on its own. How could these jokers every pose a threat to NATO European forces much less the USA. Imagine this shower in Poland just the Polish would take them apart.
Thats assuming Ukraine itself is fighting them alone which I think its clear they arent.
‘Contractors’ or ‘Advisors’ surely must be in theatre helping out.
I think I would expect something. Though it will take a few days for the intention to be announced. It won’t be 100bn though 😎 – that was probably all the cash that UVDL did not spend when she was defence Minister. Interesting that DE is going for both ECM Eurofighters *and* F35s. Previously F35s were out as UVDL made a political declaration quite unexpectedly in I think 2016. For the UK surely the place to start is to reverse the salami slicing in last week’s plan to keep what is happening on track, to notcut the things that are… Read more »
Going for two different types would make sense – it will take time to ramp up production so it means getting stuff quicker. Must admit I would like to see the UK another 24 or so of each for early delivery. Also would like to see us have some diesel subs for ‘local’ defence…having a couple of subs leave port every couple of weeks, ‘disappear’, then return would certainly make it clear that the North Sea and Western Approaches are covered at all times.
Probably wishful thinking I’m afraid. Too many other spending priorities, plus the Government will say we already meet the 2% target, Germany is just catching up. We know the truth of course.
I’ll be very happy if I’m wrong.
Unless the budget increase was over 10%, I don’t think I would buy any additional equipment. I would invest all additional funds in people (training, pay), refit/refurbish, munitions, spare parts. I would increase depth in what we have now. I would also stop all decommissioning of kit for 6 months, then reassess. If the budget increase was greater than 10% I would only buy equipment with proven success in the buying cycle, Apache helicopters, P8 and so on. Just my thoughts
Our 2% just about covers our armed forces at way under strength with mostly abysmal replacement programs. 3%+ is needed to deliver something capable of doing the job properly. Better pay (especially with cost of living jumping sharply from now on) & conditions etc needed to improve recruitment, retention & make it worthwhile people risking life & limb for us.
Agree with all that, just don’t think our politicians will do anything about it. As I said above, I’ll be very happy if I’m wrong!
I agree, our bean counters will argue that having seen the way the Russians are performing in Ukraine they don’t pose much of a threat to any member of NATO ( apart from the nuclear option obviously ).
A one off wealth tax is a complete no brainer. Solve the cost living / heating issue and defence equipment in one.
And destroy what’s left of UK aerospace industry.
The reality is we have the nuclear deterrent and we need our budget to be 3%of gdp.
one word of warning here, whilst the IISS states the uk spent $71.6bn (£53bn) last year, the MoDs published accounts state $20bn less (£40bn)
CASD alone is circa 0.5% of GDP on its own and this needs to be addressed as a separate item going forward.
When did the Trident program get moved into the defence budget?
I don’t know the year but George Osborne did it as Chancellor. Thanks a lot Gideon!
Edit- 2010
Big decision to make so soon after coming into power, surprised that such a move could be made so quickly with the glacial pace our government seems to move with such types of decisions.
He was looking for quick fixes to the UK finances, I guess he saw that as low hanging fruit. Doubt he gave much thought to the implications for defence. 12 years later and we are yet to recover from that decision and those that followed as a result.
I think it always was. This is the first time so much has been spent on renewing it since the 2% limit. The less we spend on defence in total, the more impact extra spending on nuclear has on the rest. We’ve been renewing the warheads, the missiles and the submarines all at the same time as the lowest overall defence spending in the country’s history. Recent increases are nowhere near enough to make up for that. For all we might wish the nuclear deterrent was accounted for separately from conventional defence, I think we are stuck with the NATO… Read more »
£60bn is more than enough (3%) for the UKs defence, the MOD needs to step up as well and start spending it wisely.
the first thing we need to do is retain the army at 82k people and increase the RN, RM and RAF.
I also have been banging on about a BMD shield for some time and been shouted down, perhaps that is no1 priority after Successor, which now needs fast tracked.
Nope – sadly our politicians will bury their heads in the sand as they always do and repeat the mantra that we are one of the few countries in NATO that already meets the 2% target and we will pat ourselves on the back for it…. the lessons of Ukraine will be ignored and forgotten.
Yes, that’s how much faith I have in our politicians – on both sides – no favouritism here!
We need to stop promoting the worst sort of people to top jobs, especially in the public sphere(PMs, MPs etc).
We also need to ween the UK population of benefits (Earnover 60k and still able to get benefits?) and cheap goods from China. At the same time taxing high earners / business appropriately. Sadly, MP’s know what wins votes, so will go for the promise of what gets them elected rather than what is good for the country. As the old saying goes, we get the governmentwe deserve. Additionally, following many years of relative peace (or wars many of the population saw as unnecessary / not relavant to them), and influx of many young people with no emosional ties to… Read more »
Interesting thoughts Mike. We don’t ask for everything HMGs do for us. That’s often set more often nowdays by the rich elite, big money interests. Big buiseness took the decision to trash all the jobs here in Europe/America & get everything made on the cheap in China. That was done in their own interests first & foremost. We are finding we’ve lined the pockets of the biggest threat to freedom & democracy. I don’t think it’s wise, humane or necessary to conscript people. Especially in today’s battlefields, volunteers should be able to supply all the manpower we need, so long… Read more »
I notice they haven’t stated numbers but I hope it’s significant. The US committed to not placing boots on the ground which is looks like it doesn’t need to for the attrition warfare the Ukrainians have bunkered in for. Putin was expecting to Ukrainian government to collapse like Afghanistan which clearly isn’t going to happen.
If he resorts to leveling cities with indiscriminate artillery it would need to be deployed inside Ukraine and as a result vulnerable to NATO air strikes which would be more than measures and justified response.
Typhoons are flying directly from Coningsby to Northern Poland to provide air support along with the Typhoons from Akrotiri. Op Shader over Syria & Iraq still being covered and 24/7 QRA in the Falklands and UK. Typhoons from 41sqn just returned today from Navada. Some Airforces talk about global reach. The RAF demonstrates it daily. 🇬🇧
All true but maybe the time to restart the Typhoon production line at BAE?
It still is open, Rob. Currently building aircraft for Kuwait and Qatar. Germany has ordered another 38, and Spain, too.
I would guess that UK will simply green light projects and orders that are costed out.
The 24 T4 Typhoons reinstated are the most likely output
We can hope 👍
The reason that simply green lighting those is that they can be procured at fixed costs.
It secures a key industrial facility.
It is doable in a sensible timescale.
RAF already has T3 in service and with Radar2 in from the off won’t be odd man out.
It can also be presented as not escalating tensions as ‘it was planned all along’….
it seems logical Robert- low hanging fruit. I’m keen to see how the current government responds to upweighting defence spend- and how quickly (hopefully)
I think at the minimum a direct replacement order for the T1s is needed and keep the T1s until they are replaced.
The truth is even if we don’t up a numbers of fast jet squadrons Which I thinks we should, we need more than 125ish fast jets that we have.
The french have about 200 fast jets, so we should really move towards that number as soon as we can. Then think about what is next.
Hi Jonathan
Hi ian
As for reopening airfields, yes we should, that’s part of creating depth in our armed forces.
This is especially important as Russian thinking has very much moved to the use of cruise and balistic missiles. Most Russia nuclear submarines are being turned into strike platforms and Russian SSN tactics are not longer looking at contesting the Atlantic, but instead sitting in Northern Europe waters and attriting keep NATO sites like air stations.
finally we do have air stations open that could take a squadron or two of fast jets, Yeovilton is an example.
Additional purchase for RAF is badly needed, although speeding up delivery of F35B is also a high priority.
Indeed. We need the mass to fight a European war , or at least to survive until we can build/but more aircraft.
I’m wondering why they have not forward deployed?
They are our ace in the hole. If things turn hot I’d imagine the F35B will deliver a very hard lesson in advanced avionics, sensors and weapon system integration. In short kick butt.
If it can be done from home soil, then it’s a lot less hassle. It’s also a testament to the capability and availability of the Voyager fleet. They will have been busy boys n girls down at Brize Norton. Great Thursday night Bop at Brize 😆🍻
OMG the bop at Brize, now you have dragged up some fun memories I thought I’d forgot lol
Jim Davidson bought me a beer in 99 sqns bar 😆 my claim to fame. 😆 I remember the bop being huge, and a cracking rat buger van out front.
No Meteor for starters and the risk of Russia shooting one down. Plus, we have a more than capable air defence fighter in Typhoon! “Typhoon and Su-35 both have positive thrust-to-weight ratios at combat loadings, meaning that they can accelerate vertically and generally both maintain and regain energy in a turn much more successfully than the F-35 (particularly the heavier B and C models),” Bronk said. In the case of the Russian Su-35, an adversary much more likely to face the F-35 than the Typhoon, the F-35 overcoming the Su-35’s supermaneuverability while dogfighting seems an insurmountable task. “Su-35 also has… Read more »
Remember that scene in Indiana Jones, where the baddy shows off his impressive sword skills and Indy just shoots him? The SU-35 can have all the mad dogfighting skills in the world, it’s bringing a knife to a BVR gun fight.
😂😂👍
That’s the way I look at it. No, it’s not the coffee table picture book of my youth with Vulcan Bomber’s lined up on the tarmac, but for a country of 67 million people to have the world’s 5th largest economy, provide health care for its citizens, along with one of the most generous foreign aid budgets, and still have enough left over to do all we talk about here including showing little hesitation to put skin in the game when and where it matters, it is beyond impressive.
It’s a shame a few more who use this site don’t appreciate what we do in those kind words. We don’t realise how lucky we are living in this pleasant land of ours. It has its faults, but generally not as many as a lot of countries. And we always step up when up counts. 🇬🇧🇺🇲 Since i left the RN, many of my peers spent a lot of time in the states with F35, or embedded in USN aircraft carrier’s to keep the experience and skills set up until the QE class arrived. They all made life-long friendships and… Read more »
Have a little faith, Jay. Currently, we operate a very capable fleet of helicopters. And the new Apache AH-64E purchase has been on time and on budget.
Yes, a pretty good country to live in and be proud of to be honest.
I’ve been watching for days now, Akrotiri is very busy at the moment and it shows how important that base really is.
Already about 100 Nato jets were in the region, probably more as things escalate.
Putin has united Nato like we havent seen since the cold war. After this cold shower, EU countries are waking up, and defence spending will probably return to cold war levels, so well beyond 2%. Where once we could have doubted Tempest and FCAS, well now they are a priority. Maybe in the meantime upgrade t1 to t3 typhoons.
Good time to buy defence company stocks.
Good job Putin, you muppet. 😀
T1 -> T3 is not possible.
They are fundamentally different in how some of the airframe penetrations are formed.
Also there is no liquid cooling system for the higher powered radar.
Out of interest, I believe the Spanish are planning to upgrade their Tranche 1’s. Whilst this is unlikely to be anything like the T3/4 specs, in remains a credible aircraft.
Then maybe the Kuwaiti/Qatari aircraft could be temporarily diverted to the RAF. We need to move forward on the basis that we will be in conflict with Russia in six months. If that doesn’t happen, all well and good. Now is not the time for a laid-back approach. Incidentally, a rush order of F35Bs wouldn’t be a bad idea.
Those aircraft are fitted with the Mark 0 European Common Radar System (ECRS) which is less capable than the Mark 1 the Germans and Spanish are getting and ever less capable than the Mark 2 version which the U.K. has signed up for.
Pretty sure the RAF wouldn’t accept them, neither would the MOD due to future costs in replacing them in the future
Farouk, that’s great information that I was not aware of. Do you have any idea how we could improve airframe numbers if there were a significant chance of being in a state of hostilities with Russia in six months? I see that as the strategic problem to be solved.
It’s a nice idea. But, getting qualified pilots and engineers in place is not as easy or quick. It takes time to build up numbers.
There’s no doubt about that, Robert. All those elements go hand in hand.
Things have moved on just a little! “Under the Typhoon Future Synthetic Training (TFST) contracts, BAE Systems is leading work to deliver ten high fidelity, immersive simulators, together with highly-secure state of the art training facilities at RAF Coningsby in Lincolnshire and RAF Lossiemouth in Moray. The new training environments will be linked together providing an integrated environment for pilots to train and carry out complex combined training exercises using real-world mission software and tactics. Annually the Company delivers training for more than 2,500 technicians and ground crew across a wide range of skill sets and for more than… Read more »
Maybe it’s time to see more NATO run projects, so we can buy on scale, might stop the infighting we have seen so often.
Why?
Every Euro collaboration takes a fundamentally Uk Design and then spends ages arguing over it and France demanding leadership and work share…….
Better off if we do it with friends….and leave France and Germany to one side otherwise we produce another Euro channel.
They can buy Tempest if they want to.
Need a new era, Nato runs them to take away the infighting. We need programmes in huge scales and interoperability, with joint training.
We have to put behind our past differences on projects.
It will never happen, everyone knows the Chinese hacked US technology to aid their build-up. Putting everything into one basket under NATO is tantamount to giving the Russians/Chinese the keys to the filing cabinets. It was a problem of monumental in the ’70-the ’80s. When I left the RM, I went to work at my current tasking and reviewed many, many historical instances where leaking of secrets occurred for as little as $1000 all over NATO nations.
I am not saying the UK is better in a chest-thumping way, but there’s a very healthy paranoia in UK circles (today).
This crisis must prompt us and the rest of NATO, to review our levels of defence expenditure.
Maybe out of this domain of discussion, but out of curiosity, I wonder how the crews on the ISS are getting on at the moment?
I’ve been wondering that too. During the cold war any time tensions were high they would lock the doors between US and Russian sections.
Probably a bit awkward for all those on board right now.
Reuters is reporting satellite images showing a 5km long armoured convoy 40km north of Kyiv heading south. What price a squadron of Typhoons with Brimstone.
What price an ambush with NLAWS for the armour and Stinger for the top cover having blown a bridge when the lead vehicle is on it?
I’ll go with that. If Reuters knows then the Ukraine forces know too.
The Germans seem finally to have taken the gloves off; sending 1000 Panzerfaust 3 and 400 Stingers. And building 2 plants to import LNG.
I’d like to think Ukrainian SOF are behind the lines smashing up logs convoys with NLAWs
If we are seeing that on the news, the Ukrainians will know too. Just hope they have assets in place to take advantage.
Oh, I think either UK or the Americans will have told them some time ago.
Hopefully helped them figure out a location for a reception committee.
Given the threads Vlad The Deranged is making I think all ISTAR will be tuned in?
Hi Paul, 5km sounds like a lot but I don’t think it is. I remember back in the 1980’s when NATO / UK did a practice mobilisation the UK mobilesed a lot of troops, an armoured division if I remember correctly. One armoured div spaced out for a route march one behind the other would have stretched from Newcastle to London according the news. If I remember rightly there were pictures on the news of trucks, landies APC’s and Tank Transporters nose to tail on the motorways and autobannes. So 5km not many especially if the Russians are trying to… Read more »
Yeh. I think you are right. Saw the images on Sky. Very clear. From a commercial satellite. Convoy is a mixture of vehicles; mostly lorries, fuel and logistics – food, water and vodka? In a few seconds I didn’t spot any tanks. Everything looked wheeled. Several lorries were long and roofed, hiding the contents.
Better and easier to hit supply convoys. Without fuel and ammo, tanks are useless.
Did the tanks drive under their own steam on day 1? If so they will be empty.
Every man and his dog seem to be providing intelligence to Ukraine at the moment (and good on them).
I dare say there is a fair of command and control assistance too.
Can’t understand the apparent lack of situational awareness the Russians are displaying though
Maybe the Russian situational awareness is being played with?
The Russians must know by now that wherever they probe into cities Ukrainian sqads will have intel and meet / ambush them with ATMs.
Hi Paul B, There has been a lot of talk about the lack of progress of the Russian attack. I’ve been wondering if there is uncertainty amoungst Putin’s people about the reliability of the Russian troops. There is plenty of anti invasion feeling amoungest the Russian people, especially the young. I would assume that would include the young troops being deployed so perhaps they are being half hearted in their efforts now that they see and experience the depth of Ukrainian feeling for their country. I bet it has come as a shock to the Russian’s. That just leaves Mad… Read more »
CR i came across this earlier on: Picdelamirand-oil on strategicfront posted this. I summarize here the content of a tweet whose author is an author for the international review specialist of the Russian army, followed on twitter by Michel Goya and Arnaud Danjean (who are French referents).His analysis is quite apocalyptic on the state of the Russian army before the invasion.To sum up:Total contempt for the Ukrainians (bordering on racism) which led to a gross underestimation of the resistance that this country would offer.the structure of the Russian GTIA is unbalanced (not enough trans, rens, poor integration with air support…)… Read more »
Now the above is just one opinion in a huge avalanche of opinions currently flying through the ether. But I read, and I read a lot and two books I have read are: The Tanks of Operation Barbarossa: Soviet versus German Armour on the Eastern Front Tank Warfare on the Eastern Front, 1943–1945: Red Steamroller https://i.postimg.cc/0NNPRDg1/tanks.jpg Both are historical factual books and one thing they point out is how in 1941 (When Nazis Germany Invaded Russia) and the years running up to it, how the political elites in the kremlin were fed a completely state of affairs from what was happening… Read more »
Hi Farouk,
Interesting posts thank you. The problems with the logistics would explain the stalled advance and might explain Putin’s extreme behaviours!
After all putting Russia’s nukes on ‘special alert’ is a tad extreme… is it that he now realises how effective his army could be. and he needs to look strong and show that he is in control.
Cheers CR
Ukraine invasion: Would Putin press the nuclear button? – BBC News
I think we need to short term pre position some t45s around the country for some basic ABM Defense. Better something than nothing. As the article says We thought he would never do many things militarily and he did it all. We need to prepare just in case
I was watching an interview with a former general, so said if you looked at the invasion of Iraq, the first few days it didn’t go well, and then the tide changed. He was highlighting thst it’s too early to draw any conclusions to how effective the Russian forces are.
Hi Steve, A fair point and the war is only 4 days old, so perhaps a bit early to draw conclusions. Nevertheless the Ukrainian’s are doing surprisingly well. Russia probably has the depth to wear the Ukrainian’s down, but I think Putin thought it would go much more quickly. He is a authoritarian leader surrounded by people who know it is in their best interest to say ‘yes’. I think his pronouncements over the last few days demonstrate a flawed understanding of the Ukrainian’s feelings towards their country and critically his Russia. The sense of optimism and of a new… Read more »
My concern is how well the morale will last if Russia gets a major victory. So far they have repealed what appears to be special forces/recon units, if the main assault happens and cities start to fall, will the morale hold, expecially considering the lack of sleep etc that the Ukraine defenders must be suffering from.
Hi Steve, There will always be those whose morale fails, but even the British and many French troops kept to it during the retreat to Dunkirk. Indeed the French fought bravely covering the initial British evacuation. As such I suspect the Ukrainian’s morale will hold up quite well, and even if they lose the conventional war I would be surprised if they do not resist any occupation force. Any such resistance will be well supplied if Europe / NATO continue to supply light weapons. Even Belgium has supplied 2000 machine guns..! Putin has got himself into a bind, how he… Read more »
This is true, but equally there are many cases in history of the reverse happening. No way to know right now. Deaths are extremely low so far and so are russian victories. Hopefully it continues like that, but the next month or two will be telling.
Hi Steve, When I was still in the Defence Analysis business there was a piece of open source research into what makes people stand and fight (this is some years ago, so I can’t remember any references). It basically concluded that the determination to make a stand or run comes down to s single decision point. Once the decision is made that person sticks to it, like a talisman almost. They will hang onto that course of action until something very extreme forces them to reconsider, usually some major shock and / or exhaustion. So the gradual rampingn up of… Read more »
Just hope Putin doesn’t magic up a false flag major “Ukrainian” war crime to galvanise his troops.
Seen the picture. Woods either side. No room for those vehicles to manoeuvre off the road. Simple ambush procedure; top and tail the column then take out the rest at leisure. Hope the Ukrainians are on it.
Hi Rob, Been hoping they would something as you describe or Kyiv is going to have a pretty bad time of it. Watching the news today the BBC reported that the Ukrainian’s are resisting the convoy in the villages hence the crawl southwards. I had hoped the Ukrainian’s would use drones and attack the column at night. Given the large number of wheeled vehicles I can only assume that there is a considerable quantity of supplies mixed in. Given how closely they appear to be driving if the Ukrainian’s got lucky and hit an ammo truck and there would be… Read more »
I just saw the images on Sky News. I think the Russians must be thinking of just rushing/overwhelming the defences and creating chaos. Lets hope Ukrainian artillery, ground attack aircraft and “tank hunters” can rip them to shreds before they breach the line.
The Ukraine does have some Su-25s. I don’t know whether they are still available, though
And Mig-29s. Neither has ATG smart weapons capability though as far as I can find; maybe a few of the SU-25s. I think they were upgrading them. They lost a couple of SU-25s shot down after hitting a Russian column. Both types can deliver unguided rockets and dumb bombs. The Mig-29s have decent AA missiles. Maybe that’s why the Russians have not been able to exert air dominance.
Apparently the Ukrainians are having good success using Turkish Drones against Russian convoy columns.
Interesting. I’d forgotten about the drones. Found this in the Wall Street Journal
https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-02-26/card/DrigGO7vkGfDzbBuncnA
Yes, I’m really surprised the Russian air force has not been able to achieve air superiority. Things are going to get worse from them once all the stingers arrive. That pushed Russian air up above 10,000 feet when they invaded Afghanistan. Their helos were less active, too.
They have failed to take and hold airfields so I’m guessing they have to fly a long way from Russian and maybe Belarus bases? What re-fuelling capability do they have?
They have a few Il78 tankers. They hve invested far less in aerial refuelling than westeen nations. I’m not sure that aerial refuelling is rhe pivotal issue, thougg.
Hi Nick, yes just following how the discussion has unfolded I think you are right.
It seemed to be mainly trucks and not armoured vehicles, but certainly seems Russia is preparing for massive attack, which was soviet doctrine, build up first and then attack on mass, if the SF can’t achieve the objective first.
The crap that gets posted:
Just seen on BBC online Turkey will close access to Black Sea using the Montreaux Convention. Though I thought one exemption was home ported vessels?
Hi Daniele,
It does indeed exampt home ported vessels, but not all of the Russian vessels are home ported in the Black Sea – being slighty tongue in cheek 🙂
Door, horse, stable, bolted comes to mind. However, bottling a large portion of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea would do NATO a lot of favours…
Cheers CR
Article 21 allows Turkey to tell anyone it thinks could threaten them with war to sod off….any there is no method of legal challenge.
Does Turkey recognise Crimea as a valid homeport for a Russian warship?
Would bottling his ships up in the black sea not create a knee jerk reaction from him?
Assuming he wants them out of the area or reinforcements sent into the area would he not just simply blast his way through?
Hi James, Sorry for the slow response. I doubt very much that the Russian Navy, or any other, would be able to blast their way through the straits. They are very narrow, only 700m wide at the narrowest with depth of 124m to 36.5m, so easily mined. Sink one or two ships in the right place and nothing moves. Also, from pictures I have seen there is a lot of high ground on the shores. Not only that but the straits pass through the middle of Istambul start throwing explosives around in Istambul and Turkey is going to get very… Read more »
That’s article 19, which is mainly defunct as a lot of it relates to vessels being able to pass due to obligations around article 25 and the League of Nations. The other bit on this section is that vessels which have become separated from there bases may return to their bases. So in effect if Turkey uses article 19 Russia cannot move new vessels into the Black Sea, unless it was their formal base. I think what Turkey is planning to use is a wider power in article 21, which basically is a nuclear option, in that if Turkey feels… Read more »
Fascinating info, thank you.
Hmm Jonathan that is indeed very interesting. There has been no response that I am aware of from the Russians suggesting that Putin doesn’t care – yet. Given many think Putin is trying to rebuild the Soviet / Tzarist empire he has got to have the Baltic States in his sights. He clearly thought he could ignore the West this time around, after all the West did way too little when he went after the rebels in Chechnya, for example. He clearly did not factor in that the West sees Ukraine as an independent sovereign state. So he might well… Read more »
Does Poland have any 7* hotels? Asking for a friend.
Wish lists? Fund Field Hospitals in Pol, SVK, Hu, Rom. Treat all casevacs, returning Rus through IRCC. Make sure it is filmed for the world to see what NATO does well. Take UKR airforce techs and pilots and train them on Tranche 1 tiffies – think BoB CzSvkPols who took to our fighters like ducks to water. Ditto Hawks. Arm with A2A. Gift stored challies, take UKR tank crews abd train them up. Buy Abrams or Leopards to replace. T26 upto 12, increased production run. Royal back to 3 Cmdo Brigade with helo and logs Buy CV10s Mk4 to replace… Read more »
I feel Airborne maybe getting in touch with you soon…
Yeah, but, I’m already running!
I hear he’s a fast runner.
He’ll be all brawn, with superb skills at head butting doors in… I’m on mi toes an he knows it…
After all, the unofficial motto of the RMP when encountering trouble is “Run away!”
We stole that from French MP at Waterloo… they were fast, we had horses 🙂
Grrrrrrrrrrrrr…….however I have to say, he is correct insofar that landing light without a plan to reinforce rather quickly will ensure shit roles downhill rather quickly. However the option of landing light to take an airhead for a short period of time, and having a coherent plan to both relieve and extract, is a calculated risk worth taking. And no matter how much shit we give the Armoured lads, yes we do need them, as we are all moving parts of a finely tuned (cough cough) machine!!!! But Rob, we all know that war is full of calculated risks mate…….
Hi Airborne,
A day later and is seems to me that the Russian Paras may have been force off the airfield. Sadly for them this attack could be their bridge too far. The armoured column is now closing in, but it most has been a very tough time for them.
CR
DAVID!!!!! How dare you……em be nearly, but not quite, correct 😂! See my reply to Rob below mate 👍
Gotta love PARA, the mad buggers.
Your far to nice mate lol 👍
Why the leopards to replace Chally? A renewed budget might allow all turrets, guns and upgrades to be replaced across more of the fleet.
I just wish that UK plc had been more successful in selling abroad, so that the production line could have been kept open and continuous upgrades occurred.
Doubt many on here would disagree.
Facts, We have no capability but need tanks, Abrams or Leopards, your choice?
I suppose it just depends what comes out the emergency review that’s bound to be coming…. If it’s decided to rebuild the Armoured Regiments to say 6, then the Army won’t have enough hulls to convert. They may well have to go M1A3 or Leopard to build a force of 350…. ( I would suggest that 6 Regiments and a 350 fleet, is the minimum ‘effective’ MBT force). The bigger issue is, if we actually have to consider the unthinkable and fight the Russians in Europe, then we will need to have an MBT that can be supported and supplied… Read more »
Nothing to disagree with there – except – this is changing Russia there was an undercurrent of unhappiness with Putin – what will this do?
To be honest David, successive Russian Governments have proved themselves to be volatile and increasingly aggressive.
Gorbachev was the last ‘stable’ leader they had.
We need to forget any fantasy peace dividend and pin defence spending to 3.5% GDP.
It needs to remain pinned there, until both Russia and China become stable democracies, without malicious designs on others territory.
So basically, for the foreseeable three decades ahead at the very least…
I put a wish list on one thread.
Back to 16 credible frigates
Shoe horn an extra Astute
Rebuild armoured, cs and css
Helo
Then, we are lost in a multitude of missiles for RN, RAF, Army
However, any unfilled Army PIDs transferred to Royal and ringfenced and Royal grown again to a full Brigade.
Funding takes what it takes.
A Bridge Too Far is part of recruit basic training for the Paras!
Yes, but beaten around their heads being told ‘We lost’ isn’t.
@Airborne replied last night – their ethos can’t be faulted, their fighting ability is almost without peer… “they fought the law, but, I won”… used correctly and supported on time, they are qu qu qui quite a w e s o m e – there, I said it.
https://twitter.com/EUSec_Defence/status/1498020843334643715
At 23:40 he says eu will provide fighter jets to ukraine, old mig 29’s i guess?
It’s interesting to note that the UK’s support to NATO is not being reported by the BBC.
Typhoons to re-inforce Nato’s defences re Poland & Romania – not reported.
Challenger 2 to Estonia – not reported.
UK troops to Poland – not reported.
HMS Albion & Commandos to northern Norway – not reported.
Quality of BBC reporting on Ukraine – appalling.
BBC becoming a national disgrace.
Carliol
I’ve noticed that as well, for example the BBC has been carrying out a fact check on videos coming out of the Ukraine, (something they did during the Israeli , Hezb-Allah war in 2006 ) where they correct stories regards Stories about Moscow getting a kicking . I’ve nothing against that, but it’s something which they never bothered to do during our time in Iraq Afghan where allegations from the likes of Terry were always reported as factual within hours , yet when investigated by ISAF we found they were mainly false. Currently the BBC is screaming that Black people… Read more »
I’m not getting into the politics about the BBC Farouk. I just think that everyone should be congratulating the Poles. Seen news reports with the the Polish Fire Brigade, of all people, welcoming refugees and everyone serving up food and driving them to where they want to go. The Poles are properly fantastic.
Funny enough my TV licence runs out tomorrow. Seriously thinking of not renewing it.
Not had one for over 20 years 🤷🏻♂️
I suspect that BBC will not consider “Russia” a trigger word and make warnings…for those “sensitive”…
Typhoons: Ukraine invasion: UK troops will not fight against Russia says Wallace – BBC News
Challenger: Ukraine conflict: Protests held around UK in support of Ukraine – BBC News
Poland- Ukraine-Russia crisis: Stakes are very high, Boris Johnson says – BBC News
Norway- Pre-planned wargames, deployment not Ukraine related.
Overall Ukraine- Keep seeing BBC being praised as one of the best live news pages on the conflict alongside Skynews and CNN. Ukraine live updates: Next 24 hours are ‘crucial’ says President Zelensky – BBC News
BBC have their own agenda. Obvious to many. Impartiality left the building 20-30 years ago. Just keeps trying to brainwash everyone into their viewpoint, oblivious to how their own moral compass has strayed.
i do think we need to throw some money at this quickly, as the Germans have done and accelerate some of our purchasing plans. HMS Glasgow to be in the fleet by years end with quad packed Seaceptor in the mid silos instead of singles and accelerate the remaining units as an urgent priority. mk41 strike and tactical to be the standard across the fleet. get a CTA turret onto warrior asap, even if we use the French jaguar turret. Just get it done. Then order a British built replacement. Using the same turret. Immediate purchases of 48 F35b and… Read more »
Our industrial base is just fine compared to almost anyones. We are at full employment or as close to it as it’s possible to get which means the countries entire economy is at full capacity. To make more of something we have to literally stop doing something else like making vaccines or structuring financial derivatives and those things generate more GVA than defence spending. Better to import anything missing or for any short term increase required. For 300 years the power of the UK has always been is economy, financial system and ability to import. With these powers we have… Read more »
hey Martin
I don’t agree I am afraid, we need to move back to manufacturing and build in resilience into certain industries such as medicines, energy and yes military.
I agree we are better than most, but we need to do what’s best for the country (and in terms of the above 3 the world) not just low quality jobs.
Putin wanted less NATO but he is getting more. Germany moving to 2+% means several more Sqns of Luftwaffe Typhoons and maybe as many as 2 extra Panzer Divisions. We can all see what the lightly armed Ukrainians are inflicting on the Russians. Just think what the well supplied, trained and equipped NATO forces would do to those servile Russian conscripts.
Just think what a few well placed tactical nuclear weapons will do. I wouldn’t underestimate your foe. Putin has the conviction, whereas the west is yet to find a backbone.
I’d call it derangement rather than conviction.
Is there any evidence that Russia has ever considered using tactical nukes against a fellow nuclear power?
AFAIK their tactical nukes were for quickly removing the non-nuclear armies from the board at the start of a conventional war.
During the Soviet era. The use of tactical nukes was part of their standard playbook for smashing through concentrated defences. A lot of the doctrine has been carried forward with the Russian Army. They still have a large stockpile of nuclear 203mm shells as well as nuclear warheads for Iskander etc. So I wouldn’t put it past them!
I agree with you Davey, it is still within their OB and doctrine.
Should that funding flow, refloating the Navy and upgrading their SEAD would be a boon to the RAF.
We are thin on the ground, limited depth, reduced capabilities but we are one of the few countries who are up for putting our money where our mouth is, get into a scrap if necessary and take casualties! Keep burning the midnight oil guys and gals, as we all know that behind the scenes everything and everyone are now ramping up in their own sphere of employment and operations! Respect!
Wish we could PM, some Latvian Mil asking to help get their kids out – they are staying.
And some on here blagging Art 5 as a mantea.
Apparently, Rus Armour pivoted towards Suwalki Gap… Source: family member married to UKR.
Yes, there is satellite imagery showing large numbers of Russian and Belarus Forces facing Poland and Lithuania, that originally were on the Ukrainian border.
Seeing the latest videos of Russian forces captured from 25th brigade. They say they did not even know they were entering Ukraine and thought it was an exercise. One guy is a reservist called up two weeks ago can’t even ember his unit number. It might be time for some defence spending cuts if this is what we are facing. This will send a strong message to China as well, Toy soldiers are not meant for fighting.
I think we need to be careful here, the forces attacking Ukraine largely seem to be conscripts, we don’t actually know when or if they plan to deploy their professional forces. We haven’t seen too much of Russia’s T-90s or more advanced aircraft. I strongly suspect they have held them back in the event of NATO involvement. But then watching Putin’s announcement about moving nuclear weapons to “special alert”, even the Russian generals look as if Putin has lot it. If Putin has lost it, I hope for the all our sakes somebody in the military steps in and forces… Read more »
It does feel like Putin has underestimated what he was going to face in Ukraine and just sent in the newly recruited conscripts with a load of out of date/expiring equipment, almost as if its cheaper to use it than dispose of it.
What number of actual professional hardened soldiers he has at his disposal no one will know but I do agree in that it doesnt appear we have seen them yet.
Sorry James, estimates at 14 full Divisions and 5 at Cadre. Prior to recent events, he had 9 full Divisions in that areas command. Of, course they wouldn’t have deployed many from their Western or Northern Commands who cover the Scandinavian (North Western) and Western (Europe Central) Commands that have 8 full (60-70% (Russian full)) and 9 Cadre Divisions, where they feel their greatest threat, quite strange that they have only 4 facing China.
Why yes, I do have some BAE Systems and Lockheed Martin stock.
Good Morning Gents from a cloudy but humid Durban. Here is a thought-there is obviously a case for bolstering Britain’s Armed Forces in both boots on the ground and equipment but even without such increases, Nato’s strength as it stands is more than enough to cope with a conventional conflict against the Russians.However I cannot envisage any possibility of a conventional war against Russia that would not quickly deteriorate into a Nuclear holocaust especially and as long as Putin remains in power. He has to be removed and replaced by a sane human being. That is the priority. Most normal… Read more »
Lets hope this brings a modest increase in UK defence spending. To be spent wisely (one can but hope……). I don’t think we need go down the 15+ armoured regiments route (or such) as some have proposed here. After all if Germany and other hangers on increase spending they can fund a decent land force surely. The UK has to think about the next war – so ok lets have some more Challys upgrade to CR3. But then its all the enablers (artillery, signals, logistics etc) that need to be sorted. Hopefully the UK could get a decent deployable effective… Read more »
The message may be getting through. Truss has said Britain should spend more on defence.
It appears Ukraine is handing Putin’s arse back to him on a plate, well done!
Is it any wonder that he now wants to talk and use the nuclear threat as his troops get a good hiding, and well deserved I might add.
Clearly, somebody forgot to mention Stingers in Afghanistan to him and the heavy price of fighting a gorilla war against people who are prepared to fight to the bitter end with even better equipment to hand than in the past.
https://news.sky.com/video/ukraine-invasion-video-appears-to-show-aftermath-of-attack-on-russian-convoy-12553763
Hi Nigel Collins, yes Ukrainian are making a heroic effort in defending their country, Russia is taking casualties and equipment losses; but they are gaining ground taking more territory, which is worrying. I would have thought that Ukraine would have made a counter attack somewhere on the stretched supply lines, I believe they still have an army in the west. Or attack Russian troops in Transnistria? boat raid on Crimea (SAS style)? something to take the initiative from the Russians. Since I know nothing about military tactics, maybe someone could advise what is possible and what is not?
A thrust into Belarus could easily cut of Russian forces heading to Kiev however I doubt they have the air defences to pull off large movements of armoured vehicles.
Thank you Martin, air defenses would be an issue for a major push, small scale harassment raids? but that would not be enough to draw off significant forces.
It seems so far Russia has tried to fast track advance with ill prepared, under strength forces to reach cities/airfields, but got isolated, picked off or run out of fuel etc. They’d been told Ukraine would welcome them as liberators or in one case not even told they were entering Ukraine. They thought it would be a quick intervention & the Ukrainian government would fall. Corruption means many units have less manpower that they should & supporting logistics isn’t good. Now either Russia gets really brutal employing mass artilliary/bombing to level opposition & civilians alike(as it has in Chechyna &… Read more »
Unfortunately I think the first option will be taken
Nobody’s going to invade either Russia or Belarus. That would escalate madly the situation. It would confirm all Russia’s fears, not just Putin’s paranoia.
If Belarus sends its forces into Ukraine to help Putin out would that not also be an indication of a massive escalation and give other countries the green light to intervene on Ukraines side?
You’d hope so. Putin would view any intervention against his invaders as confirmation of his fears(!!!!). Though one question may be: Are Belarus troops even less enthusiastic about attacking Ukrainians? Could it be incendiary to the downtrodden Belarus population? Putin has the opportunity at the moment to back off & withdraw, with egg on his face but a little dignity & discretion before things go way, way too far; or go all out tipping Europe into a full out Cold/Hot war, dragging reluctant Nato troops in to stop the massacre, guaranteeing immediate Ukrainian NATO membership, consigning Russia to pariah status… Read more »
Russia has advanced well north of Crimea & is advancing on 2 fronts to connect up with the secessionist Donbas to cut Ukraine off from the Azov coast. Ukraine is fighting a war of defence & survival. Why would they confirm all Putins fears & lies by invading any other territory when the truth & reality is so stark to the rest of the world?
Hi Frank62, Crimea is not Russia, Transnistra (splitting hairs maybe but it is illegally occupied territory of Moldova) isn’t Russia either, raiding or taking the fight to the Russians in a different location, could relieve pressure from another front. Ukraine has used ballistic missiles on an air force base in Russia, so precedence could be argued.
Hi GMD, I think for now the goal will be to demoralise Russian troops on the ground and in the Kremlin by maintaining their ground and cities with the help of further military equipment supplied by us and other like-minded nations.” They appear to be doing an excellent job at the moment, fingers crossed they will be able to keep this up. Future goals might just be the retaking of Belarus with increased training and equipment supplied by the west, but that would be in the next few years at best. Personally, I would prefer to see Ukraine join NATO… Read more »
Belarus typo? Retaking Donetsk? I wish them all the best regardless. I think only the Russian people can stop this war now. I can’t see Putin backing down, he is in to deep.
Thank you!
True Nigel, this is the point that Putin will become very dangerous, his gamble had failed….. We can expect Putin to become increasingly brutal to achieve his war aims. The Ukrainians won’t give in, so indiscriminate artillery, airstrikes and fuel air munitions in built up areas…. They simply have overwhelming military force and a conveyer belt of replacements, that said there will be a insurgency in its wake that will make Ukraine a nightmare to occupy… As we have learnt over and over again, a determined insurgency simply cannot be defeated militarily, especially if it’s supported and underwritten by the… Read more »
Liz Truss is reported this morning as saying the UK needs to spend more on defence. Good. That said I am not sure with Putin in mega paranoia mode that now is the right time to announce it.
Agreed. Re “I wonder if we can expect some news regarding the UK’s defence posture and spending this week?” It would be a huge mistake not to and will send a very clear message to both Russia and China that we mean business. Fingers crossed Nato allies will also follow suit! And its already starting to hurt! “Russia has more than doubled its interest rate in a bid to halt a 30% slump in the value of its currency. The Bank of Russia raised the rate to 20% from 9.5% as the rouble sank amid tough new Western sanctions. The… Read more »
VICKIE FLORES/EPA
Larisa Brown
Monday February 28 2022, 12.01am, The Times
“Britain should spend more on defence, says Liz Truss
“Liz Truss urged Europe to boost defence spending referring to decades of western complacency over the threat posed by Vladimir Putin”
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/imageserver/image/%2Fmethode%2Ftimes%2Fprod%2Fweb%2Fbin%2Fd825d488-9805-11ec-89bb-9b014055375d.jpg
That’s not technically true. If you look at how Russia dealt with Chechnya, especially the 2nd Chechen war in 1999 to 2000. They smashed the separatist movement following lessons learned during the dreadful first war. But compared to how Western militaries conducted themselves. The Russian Army used the tried and tested methods used by the Soviets. They did not give a monkey’s about collateral damage or levelling the infrastructure. Once the back of the insurrection was broken, they handed over responsibility to local “friendly” Chechen forces, who then systematically destroyed the separatists. To defeat a Nation after invasion, you have… Read more »
I think that is a very good analysis of Putin’s likely intentions, Daveyb. And it looks like the bombardment of Ukrainian cities may now have commenced.
It’s still unclear to me what Russia is up to. I haven’t seen any pictures or videos showing major offensives or lots of vehicles destroyed. All that is shown is pictures of a couple of blown out vehicles in the road. Russia had tens of thousands of armoured and unarmoured vehicles lined up, where are they
Maybe they lack the logistics and numbers to advance over a broad front, so are forced into column with narrow advances that can be easily hit from all sides by ambush.
I’m starting to wonder is he holding back his elite forces back Saddam style worried about NATO intervention of which they must know there is no chance or unrest at home. Or are we finally seeing the depths of Russia’s CGI and PowerPoint conventional military. I know he has upped spending a lot but $60 billion a year ain’t much when you have 2 million conscripts to look after and 6,000 nuclear weapons to maintain. It’s costing us £100 billion to maintain just 240 over a 30 year period with missiles and SSBN’s. The US is spending trillions to do… Read more »
Did anyone else notice the look of near horror and disbelief on Defence Secretary Shoigu’s face when Putin announced readying Russian strategic nuclear forces?
Yes 🥴
We can but hope that there are wiser, cooler, more rational people in positions of power in the Kremlin.
I’m sure there are, but they need courage, faith and luck to make their move. 🙏
Reported in the Daily Telegraph.
“The European Union’s foreign policy chief suggested that the EU would even be willing to supply fighter jets to Ukraine, reports James Crisp.
“We are going to provide even fighting jets. We are not just talking ammunition, we are talking about more important arms to go to war,” Josep Borrell said after the meeting of EU foreign ministers.”
I think both Poland and Germany operate the Mig-29 which the Ukraine pilots will have familiarity with. I don’t whether the western aircraft are fitted with smart weapons.
And Bulgaria, and Slovakia
Maybe we can trade them our tranche 1 to give the Ukrainians their mig 29 with a few volunteer pilots if needed.
Hi Martin, I’m sure I said that further up the thread :). Great minds think alike 🙂
I’m afraid it’s not as easy as that, it’s not like jumping into a Spitfire doing a few circuits and off you go.
I though the Germans had disposed of thier Mig 29s?
Dunno. But as MF posts if we are going to provide aircraft it has to be a Mig 29 version the Ukraine pilots can drive immediately.
Groom had M29s and other Soviet era aircraft as part of their Red Hats OPFOR aggressor suite of aircraft. I wonder if they are available?
It seems they went to Poland. I think they would be ‘available’; as might the ones in Bulgaria. From what I have found they are early ‘export’ models – downrated defences and systems: they have been upgraded to keep them airworthy but are not I think able to carry LGB or guided missile. But the Ukraine pilots could probably jump in and use dumb rockets and bombs.
Hi Mark, From memory, they gave them to Poland.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Our defence planners had got it all wrong, whoever said the days of land wars are over were talking poppycock. Yes the threat has widened beyond what I would call traditional warfare but we are in danger of putting our eggs into one basket. 3% GDP is achievable and reasonable in real terms. The status quo in Europe has changed forever. Everywhere you look the threats we face are global, China, Iran and North Korea. International terrorism will I fear take a back seat, Afghanistan and vast swathes of central and… Read more »
If we start spending 3% it means that we end up being the worlds policeman again and we already did that for 150 years. That 1% of GDP is our entire infrastructure investment program which means we end up with crumbling infrastructure like the USA to run around solving everyone else’s problems.
Interesting thought. In no way could we police the globe, but the government have already put us on notice that our armed forces are being re-roled to fire fight globally as if it would be a quick in and out job. We spend 2% on defence already. During the cold War it was closer to 4.5%. 3% would if spent properly and not wasted would give our armed forces a fighting chance if and when we are threatened. Australia has committed 3% of its GDP and so has Germany in the last couple of days. We live in the most… Read more »
If anything the defence planning assumptions were correct. Russia no the threat it’s China.
I have said in previous posts China is the main threat. We are now tied up with a possible European war that could extend beyond Ukraines borders. European history tells us time and time again and yet we sleep walk into another potential global conflict.
China is watching and so is Iran, North Korea could be a nasty little side show. We have gone from bush fight international terrorism to now aggressive nation states.
Sorry for the change of topic but with things getting more heated each day I wondered if anybody knows if the missiles on the T45’s in port can be used, can they plug in shore power and use radars etc. in port to provide missile defense to parts of the UK or are they completely useless when in port / engines dismantled
https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60542877?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbc_live&ns_linkname=621c909e0ce87e491a0ed78b%26Ukraine%20claims%20more%20than%205%2C000%20Russian%20soldiers%20killed%262022-02-28T09%3A25%3A59.195Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:69951c66-426f-4b5d-a400-1880b7784a8b&pinned_post_asset_id=621c909e0ce87e491a0ed78b&pinned_post_type=share
If these are true the Russians are f***ed
I do not doubt the figures given the amount of wrecked Russian equipment seen on SM videos and photos. Especially given their liking for taking casualties in other wars too. Germany constantly beat them in the tactical battle but lost strategically when their flanks were driven in as they could not equal their mass. Dozens of T34 would be lost to a single Panther or Tiger. I’m certainly no expert but have always seen Russia as having lots of equipment and firepower but lacking in the logistics, professionalism and knowhow to use it to its full advantage without resorting to… Read more »
Anyone else seen the tweet from NATO air command with images of RAF Typhoons over Poland? (Link below) https://twitter.com/NATO_AIRCOM/status/1498230377172938752?s=20&t=oZb8YTN2FB8lKsBedt9alg It appears from the one image at least that these aircraft aren’t fully armed as the front right AMRAAM/Meteor hardpoint is vacant…. On the other image of an aircraft taking off it seems like it is carrying one AMRAAM at least on the RHS. I’ve seen images of UK QRA aircraft without a full missile load which has always struck me as odd, but surely when you’re sending men and women to police airspace next to an actual warzone they should… Read more »
The Twitter account called The Death District , is good for looking at footage of Russian hardware losses , its also shows the desperation in their logistics ,seen a Russian civvy tractor pulling a tank as well .
The dead district, and frankly it has all kinds of stuff there.
Nope just Russian destroyed or abandon vehicles, So I dont know what you are looking at.
It had a few videos on what looked like bombardment of civilian areas with rocket systems and casualties, injuries etc – that is what I meant – plus the Russian hardware losses. (and the other link I just posted for SU-25).
Look like it run from a Georgian so someone that has potentially been on the receiving end of Russian aggression before.
Lots of footage there – surprising never see repeated on mainstream news. Perhaps it is difficult to verify?
Yes true and a lot of it probably deemed to violent for show.
Also this was an interesting one to see SU-25 eats a manpad rocket (and potentially 2) and still completes mission. Russian Sukhoi Su-25 is attacked with MANPADS near Kherson, Ukraine – YouTube
Would an A10 have the same survivability / armour plating on the engines?
Well I’m seeing constant Russian loses on twitter but then again I’m not searching for Russian twitter accounts I should think they are on propaganda over drive , and yes I did see that SU-25 footage could of been a malfunction on the missile who knows its not clear footage.
Hi DRS, Are you sure this fast-jet is Russian? Based on the clip it could just as easily be Ukrainian.
Certainly, Ukrainian SU-25s have been in action – and evidence posted on Twitter suggests have taken some losses to the dense array of Russian battlefield SAMs.
Justin Bronk (RUSI) is reporting today that fast-jets of the Russian air-force have not been greatly deployed in this opening phase. So far, Russia is using its SAMs for air-defence, and cruise/ballistic missiles for strike.
Sorry its called The Dead District.
But Biden hasn’t sent F-22s. Guess Putin hasn’t given him the ok on that. lol
You know, Dan, I don’t think Biden is doing too bad. His administration seems to be co-ordinating an impressive Western response to Putin’s aggression.
I contrast that with the disgraceful comments made by Donald Trump, effectively cheering Putin on.
A lot of posters here are thinking dan is a Russian troll , he comes up with the same Biden BS even when Trump puts his foot in it regularly , with no counter argument.