Argentinian President Javier Milei used his speech at the UN General Assembly in New York on Wednesday (24 Sep) to relaunch his country’s bid for sovereignty over the Falkland Islands.
Calling them the Islas Malvinas, he said during a fiery speech that ‘I wish to reiterate our legitimate claim in terms of sovereignty over the Malvinas and the surrounding maritime areas that continue to be illegally occupied’.
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We of a certain age, old enough to remember such things, heaved yet another sigh of déjà vu. Haven’t we all been here before, and comparatively recently?
Those of you of tender years may not remember the Falklands War of 1982, when Argentina invaded and occupied this British Overseas Territory (BOT) and were then expelled again by the British military in a campaign lasting no more than 72 days. Casualties were high – 649 Argentinian dead, 255 British, and three Falkland Islanders.
British sovereignty was restored in what many still regard as British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher’s finest hour, and then confirmed by a referendum on political status when the Falkland islanders were asked to vote on whether or not they supported the continuation of their status as an Overseas Territory of the United Kingdom. An overwhelming 99.8% voted to stay with Britain.
So why has Milei returned to the fray again, and why now? I think there are three main reasons.
The first of these is that his government is in trouble. Argentina has one of the highest year-on-year inflation rates in the world, while a large proportion of the population lives below the poverty line. On top of this, the President’s sister Karina Milei, a prominent figure in her brother’s government, is caught up in a corruption scandal including financial kickbacks and alleged cryptocurrency bribery, all of which has scared off investors. It may well be that Milei will be forced to seek to be bailed out by the IMF.
Against such a background it’s the oldest trick in the book to focus people’s attention on foreign affairs. And the second treason is that the UK in the form of PM Keir Starmer and Foreign Secretary David Lammy is seen as a soft touch. Starmer’s unwarranted surrender of the Chagos Islands to Mauritius and his grandstanding recognition of the “state of Palestine” has persuaded many that the British government is weak and vulnerable to diplomatic bullying and persuasion, and Milei is taking advantage of this.
And the third main reason, and the one least spoken about, is that the Falklands – which have hitherto generated the majority of their revenue from fishing – may be on the cusp of and oil and gas bonanza. Four separate but overlapping areas with potential for exploitation of hydrocarbon energy sources have been identified around the Islands. Final licences to drill and take advantage of these are yet to be issued, but it could all happen before the end of this year. Clearly the economic importance of controlling this potential source of income appeals greatly to Milei given his economic troubles at home.
It should be noted, though, that the Argentinian government is not threatening a repeat of the 1982 invasion, not yet anyway. Apart from anything else, Argentina’s armed forces are but a shadow of what they were when Galtieri sent his invasion force back in 1982. They just don’t have the wherewithal to do that again.
Although Britain’s military footprint on the Falklands is not large, comprising four Typhoon jets plus a Voyager tanker, one RN offshore patrol boat, and a couple of hundred soldiers on rotation, it’s enough to deter any sabre-rattling from Buenos Aires.
No, despite all his rhetoric about Argentina’s “legitimate claims for sovereignty over the Malvinas” and rectifying what he described as “colonial solutions such as this one”, his preferred option for future debate was bilateral talks with the UK.
He also alluded to the Islanders themselves being consulted on their future, which paradoxically is also the British government’s long-held position. So for all Milei’s bluff and bluster at the UN he is actually calling for the same approach as that espoused by the UK.
The final word should go to Baroness Chapman, Britain’s Minister for International Development, Latin America, and the Caribbean, who simply stated: “The UK’s support for the Falkland Islanders’ right of self-determination is unwavering”.
Lt Col Stuart Crawford is a political and defence commentator and former army officer. Sign up for his podcasts and newsletters at www.DefenceReview.uk
i would have said the “bullied” action was NOT to recognise the Palestinian state. Funny how people see it differently.
Whilst I agree with the article I had thought that the Falklands was on the cusp of an oil bonanza more than ten years ago and it still hasn’t happened for one reason or another. In any case, protecting future oil shipments from the Falklands would probably be wise; I wouldn’t put it past Argentina (or a number of others) to try and interfere with such a trade.