Nato: Vilnius summit will reflect fresh sense of purpose over Ukraine war – but hard questions remain over membership issues
The US president, Joe Biden, struck a bullish note during a recent meeting at the White House with Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, declaring: “The allies have never been more united.”
Written by Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham.
This article is the opinion of the author and not necessarily that of the UK Defence Journal. If you would like to submit your own article on this topic or any other, please see our submission guidelines.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has certainly given Nato a fresh sense of purpose and momentum. Its credibility severely dented by the disastrous retreat from Afghanistan in 2021, Nato has returned to what it is good at: the collective defence of Europe.
The 2022 Madrid summit agreed to a new Strategic Concept that gave priority to deterrence and defence and the beefing up of forces on the alliance’s eastern flank. In April this year, the accession of Finland enhanced Nato’s presence in the Arctic and Baltic regions. At the Vilnius summit, which begins on July 11, alliance leaders are expected to approve a set of regional plans, NATO’s most detailed defence documents since the end of the cold war.
In parallel, defence ministries have been working on new capability targets to fit a “New Force Model” agreed at Madrid. Progress toward boosting European armies’ combat readiness has been mixed – and a majority of the allies remain below Nato’s defence spending target of 2% of GDP.
But Russian belligerence has shifted the dial. All the allies, with the exceptions of the US and Turkey, have increased defence spending relative to their countries’ GDP since Nato agreed the Defence Investment Pledge in 2014.
In 2022, defence spending in central and western Europe was at its highest level in real terms since 1989. Diplomats already have a favoured phrase for the summit outcome – 2% will be the “floor” for defence spending not the “ceiling” of ambition.
Work to be done
But there is much still to be resolved. The most important issue, obviously, is Ukraine. Nato’s role has not been to arm Ukraine in its fight with Russia. That is a matter for individual allies with coordination overseen by the International Donor Coordination Centre and the Ukraine Defence Contact Group.
Neither of these is a Nato body (deliberately so, otherwise their workings would be subject to Nato’s cumbersome consensus rule).
Nato support has instead been through training and the provision of “non-lethal assistance” such as rations, fuel and medical supplies. In April, Nato foreign ministers approved “a strategic multi-year assistance programme” to extend that commitment. The Vilnius summit will sign it off.
The bigger prize for Ukraine, however, is Nato membership. That would bring the country within the collective defence provisions of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and, in effect, extend US (and UK) nuclear guarantees to Ukrainian territory. In September 2022, Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky requested “expedited” membership of the alliance.
This will be difficult to accommodate. No one in Nato is arguing in favour of granting membership while Ukraine remains at war. Beyond that, the allies are divided.
On the one hand, are those such as Poland, the Baltic States, the UK and tentatively France who want Vilnius to lay out a “clear path” to membership once the war is concluded. On the other is the US, backed by Germany, who seem to favour diplomatic ambiguity so as to keep all options open (including delay) on the assumption that the war with Russia drags on indefinitely.
Strong language (but little detail)
Given all this, writing the summit declaration has proved to be challenging. At Vilnius, expect some strong language on Ukraine’s membership aspirations, but little detail on how that is to be achieved.
There is also no consensus on who will replace Stoltenberg as secretary general. Stoltenberg has been in the job since 2014 and has already had his term extended twice. He has openly voiced a desire to retire when his term ends in October. Ben Wallace, the UK defence secretary, has indicated a desire to replace him, but is supported in neither Washington nor Paris. Stoltenberg is highly regarded and it won’t be a surprise if his term is extended yet again at Vilnius.
Another spat has centred on Nato candidate Sweden. Expectations that Sweden (which applied for membership in parallel with Finland) would attend the Vilnius summit as a member have been dashed in the face of opposition from two existing members: Turkey and Hungary.
A Koran-burning episode in Stockholm at the end of June angered the recently reelected Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, who had already complained of perceived Swedish support for Kurdish separatists. Talks between Turkish and Swedish officials scheduled for just before the summit might make progress. But Erdogan is reportedly also holding out for concessions from the US – including the approval of a blocked deal to purchase F-16 fighter jets.
Hungary’s objections seem more quixotic and may simply be designed to curry favour with Turkey. This, at least, is encouraging. Should Erdoğan make a gesture at Vilnius to facilitate the ratification of Swedish membership, Hungary might then fall in line.
And finally, China. Nato’s 2022 Strategic Concept raised concerns at Beijing’s efforts “to increase its global footprint and project power”. In practical terms, Nato’s main effort in response has been to strengthen political ties with the Asia-Pacific Four (Australia, Japan, South Korea, and New Zealand).
Vilnius is expected to endorse individual partnership agreements with these countries. But broader issues of how Nato should position itself in a new era of Sino-US rivalry have largely disappeared from view as the political and strategic bandwidth of the alliance has been taken up by the Russia-Ukraine war.
So the Vilnius summit will make for interesting viewing, having, in the words of former US Nato ambassador Douglas Lute: “got everything from war to leadership succession”. For Lute, it’s likely to be “the most challenging” summit in Nato’s recent history. Until, that is, July 2024 when the alliance holds its 75th anniversary summit in Washington DC – just weeks before the commencement of the US presidential election campaign.
Mark Webber, Professor of International Politics, University of Birmingham
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Even if Ukraine get through this war ,it would be very risky to be part of NATO ,not sure all NATO members would give the green light has no countries want to bring WW 3 closer than we are now.A part from MR mad 😠 man Putin.
The rest of the world are likely to give Ukraine what it needs to push Putin back. Ukraine are now on a mission to build a solid armed forces to hold the line. The end of the Ukraine conflict is the start of Putin drawing the line on a dangerous period.
Ukraine isn’t going to be invited into NATO so long as there is any kind of territorial dispute with Russia.
Better to call them a ‘security partner’ or something and continue to back them financially make sure the Ukrainian’s build and maintain a credible deterrent.
I think you are right but I fear that this is not the optimal solution. For Ukraine, a poor country with a small population, a credible deterrent against its massive neighbour will be staggeringly expensive to fund which it would have to do so indefinitely while also trying to manage the other expectations of its peoples. It’s going to have difficulty in striking a balance between defending the country and having a country worth defending.
I don’t doubt that there would be massive international support, ,which may or may not last as long as there are tensions with Russia, but it would be much better if Ukraine was actually in NATO and pool its defence with the rest of us and so reduce this additional financial burden.
Ukraine has decent potential so probably not that poor really. There will be money flowing in from the rebuilding and one way or another they will be helped to ensure they can repell any attack. Putin has pushed them into the hands of NATO and probably the EU. Bit of an own goal.
Hmmm ..er…ummm… reluctantly forced to agree w/ this position. Entirely separate from the US, German, et. al., contention that a candidate country cannot be permitted membership during on-going hostilities to prevent immediate invocation of NATO Article 5, there is an entirely separate logic pathway that dictates that Putin and/or successors would not conclude any armistice or peace treaty which would facilitate UKR membership in NATO. Ever. 🤔
The other side of the coin is that in order to stop a neighbouring country joining NATO all a mad dictator would have to do is start some sort of Civil unrest along its borders – and bobs your uncle NATO “can’t allow them to join”….a fait acompli of sorts.
Like for example Ukraine , Moldova… take your pick.
🤔😳😱
Looking further ahead, if the sniffer in chief gets his way, the next NATO General Sec will demand creches be fitted into all Barrack blocks,ships and large aircraft. Fighter and strike aircraft due to their lack of space will be fitted to carry moses baskets.which I suppose will allow both the Father and son to have lots of fun when they visit any NATO base.
She would be an absolute disaster for NATO,still as long as it keeps us stroppy Brits in our place in the minds of some that seems to be all that matters🙄
?
Reports that Biden favours Von see Leyen for the next head of NATO after her term as EU Commission President is over next year, and of course her time in office as the German Minister of Defence (though at least some of that could be laid at Merkel’s feet as well).
Thanks, there is often a delay in receiving European political news on this side of the Pond (Orc cable tampering? 🤔😉). Unfortunate, if Big Ben has been definitively eliminated from consideration.
The Von der Leyen stuff I’ve seen has mainly been from British papers raging over it, whether it’s actually going to happen, who knows, there’s plenty of horse trading left to happen now that theres been a year extension for the current head. But it seems Wallace is certainly out of the running.
Interesting that a military/security alliance would deliberately overlook an apparently quite competent, ex-military administrator. What is the objection to his nomination? Personal attribute or payback for perceived slight to EU delivered by Brexit vote? The French could be offended for generations (the Hundred Years Slight 😉).
While there are reportedly some EU nations unhappy with his nomination, Biden seems to have been the deciding vote. Seems he had also said no to the Danish PM as well.
Biden feels bounced.
Macron playing EU politics.
The Telegraph Ukraine:The Latest did some excellent analysis on that.
UVDL sounds like a counsel of desperation by Biden because his nose had been put out of joint by Ben Wallace pushing him publicly into embracing fighters jets for Ukraine.
UVDL was German Defence Sec 2013-2019 and had a big role in hollowing out the German Armed Forces.
Biden doesn’t like him because he is British (Joe playing the Irish-American card!)
Have observed that Joe Biden generally treats the British as one might treat a perceived wayward brother-in-law. Generally, w/ varying degrees of apparent annoyance, while simultaneously realizing that completely dissociating would be either difficult or impossible to accomplish.
Issue is we would prefer to support China than USA as we are Bored by the petulance of a Old Fart who cannot stand up on his own 2 feet.
That is ‘spot on’.
Biden is Irish so a terrorist likes to supply munitions that main civilians without a single consideration. this is what USA voted for, so as soon as Cluster Bombs start raining on American GIs old Jello Sucker will keep pushing his terrorist passed
The Americans also do not recognise the International Crimeinal Court, the ban on anti-personnel mines or for any foreign entity to charge and prosecute US service personnel (and wives of intelligence analysts) for serious offences (including murder and unlawful killing) in peace or war.
Not much ‘moral high ground’ on display!
UKR needs airpower to defeat Russia. We should not have witheld supplying aircraft so long & could still step in supplying air-support directly. Putin has made all the running escalating the war wherever & whenever he chose. Commiting forces would send the clearest signal the game is up & we’ll not stand off quivering in fear any longer.
We could reduce Russian air superiority drastically, support ground troops, intercept many more Russian missiles from striking civilians.
The F-16s will materialize in time for next year”s planned counter-offensive. A-10s could be an interesting CAS addition to a tac air package. Hello Pentagon, are you receiving? 🤔
I’ve long thought that mud movers would be of more immediate use and of less controversy than F-16s (I know its also a mud mover 🙂 But, surely some old AH-1s or AH-64s (suitably updated and patched etc.) would be a more useful CAS addition.
Presume it is a consequence of US reluctance after experience in Iraq w/ Apaches. Understand tactics subsequently modified. Losses virtually inevitable in war. 🤔☹️
In my mind the conflict in Afghanistan achieved it’s objectives. Following that the population chose a leadership that they are already regretting but they had their chance and chucked it away. Not our problem.
I really dont think the population chose anything like that at all-merely some powerful men in that population. How it is now is quite frankly shameful.
It was our problem and at some point it will be again.
Our purpose in Afghanistan was to combat terrorists. Job done. However the population undermined and infiltrated the appointed replacement government and demonstrated a preference for the taliban in their every action. No civilised Army can impose a Government on a people. There was no tactical error it was the logical & only solution. Populations need to decide their own fate and that process is normally bloody but outsiders need to let them get on with it however distasteful it might appear. Most successful democracies result from an old fashioned civil war. If anyone has a better idea I am all ears?
I don’t necessarily disagree with your basic premise but in this instance as I said it wasn’t the population was it- just some of the more powerful elements of it.
IIRC there was initially some talk of a seperatist movement holding out in the North – but tyats all gone quiet.
And I still stand by my ascertion it was shameful how the exit manifested and the position many find themselves now under Taliban control & we will in a decade or so see ourselves back in there.
Unless Pakistan feels strong enough to back them at a country level at that point rather than insiduouslyas previoulsy, or China gets its foot in the door for the precious metals & causes an issue economically.
Either way we will rue the day we left them to it & short sighted by Trump/Biden…but what do people expect from good ol’uncle Sam.
Unless the topic has been quietly tabled, believe the issue of minimum GDP commitments for defence funding may be surfaced by Poland and Baltics at the summit, cast as either a 2, 2.25 or 2.5% floor. 🤔
The Summit should provisionally admit Ukraine’s membership in to NATO and only become active automatically the day the Russian military is declared defeated. That declaration is made exclusively a determination of NATO. This will give a clear signal to Putin that time is up.
Excellent, wide-ranging and comprehensive article/commentary in The Telegraph, dated 8 Jul 23, re Joe Biden’a relationship w/ UK. Provided an explanation of many flawed US foreign policy decisions during this administration. Highly recommended reading.
Us Brits are a little puzzled by US politics and generally wish to stay out of it. We are all a little puzzled by the Republican fasination with Trump. From a distance he seems to have some serious shortcomings and I don’t mean the trivea in the press why dont’t the republicans want to replace him with a younger candidate?. The capital building stuff seemed a little worrying together with his odd relationship with Putin and NATO.
Rather concerning that in a potential pool of 200+M potential candidates (native born, 35+ yrs. old), there are early predictions of a 2020 Presidential rematch Recommend being afraid, very afraid, for the future of the West. 😱😱😱
Interesting. In this country there are normally a sufficient percentage of voters willing to switch sides or not vote in order to avoid that type of outcome? Do you think that might happen in this case?
Absent unforeseen extraneous factors/events? Doubtful.
Strange but I suppose not that surprising. Being afraid is not that useful especially when you can do little about it but I take your point. We can only hope for the best. Good luck.
In the UK if, mistakenly, a duff PM (Johnson, Truss) is selected, they are ‘shown the door’ and don’t serve a full term (or even 2 months in the case of Liz Truss!).
Agree, that is a strength of a Parliamentary system.
The obsession with Boris Johnson, despite his moral turpitude, by some Conservatives, perhaps helps us understand the obsession with Twump.
Part of the attraction with Boris & Trump was clearly the bad boy image. Most people don’t care about the skeletons in the cupboard as most people are less than perfect themselves. That said having lost the confidence of the house Boris stayed within the bounds of the constitution and bowed out as expected. His popularity would have evaporated if he had not. In the UK, perhaps, Boris is merely a sacraficial lamb to get the anti-brexit lobby back on side now it is a done deal.
Boris hasn’t respected anything imo. When he received a confidential report, he broke the confidence.
Then he lied about the content “they have decided to expel me from Parliament”, when they just impose a suspension.
Then he was too much of a snivelling coward to face a by-election, and did not respect the rules for former-PMs taking jobs.
The ones that did it, I think, were the contrast between the Queen respecting the rules, and BJ whooping it up in Downing Street. And that most of us have friends or relatives who have suffered alone, whilst Johnson did not give a damn.
His Conservative support in the Commons is a few fringe elements, and many of them (such as Nadine Dorries) are just running away.
The swine does not even respect his wives, as shown by his serial affairs.
BJ has placed himself firmly in the dustbin of history – exactly where he belongs.
Boris has gone. He was the only one brave enough to do what the British people wanted on Brexit & he did what an excellent leader would do in arming Ukraine prior to the invasion preventing defeat within weeks. Would we be seeing tens of millions of Ukrainians fleeing, being slaughtered or enslaved right now? MPs felt they needed to blame someone for Covid, Brexit and anything else that might have gone wrong. 😀 They were going to get rid of him anyway they could not have had him around any longer he was more popular than all of them.
I apologise if I judge Boris by how good he was at his job rather than some clap trap about parties but we are all going to remind ourselves about how bad leaders can get in the near future.
Johnson was a fool to himself and the architect of his own undoing.
His public school affable blaggart demeanour belied some decentish qualities (I think?) , but on the whole he thought it enabled him to do what he wanted- all of the time …and it didn’t.
He squaffed an 80 seat majority up the wall – he could have done so much more with that and I was dissapointed he didnt.
As for the sham of a leadership contest and the subsequent revolt & the annointing of a mere puppet who shares some of the blame in usurping Johnson in the first place – well the least said about that the better.
There are thousands of people who would be far better at running the country than anyone currently in parliament. They would not touch politics because you & your family have to be whiter than white and never made a mistake or you get ripped apart by the press and your colleagues. People liked Boris because he was fallable – he respresented a country of fallable people.
In my book Boris did some good things & I think Rishi will quietly, on reflection, do some good stuff but will also be uninspiring. Same goes for Keir.
Agree he wasnt perfect but after Cameroon ran out of the mess, May couldn’t agree what way to face. someone had to deliver. Blame culture and standing in that circle and point right is common. Did Boris Break Rule, YES and we all did. Be Honest. he also got a Vaccine in to peoples arms. BUT he is not in that Video where there are all partying and dancing. Blame Culture and WOKE Politian’s means none fit to govern
I think most people tried to protect themselves & used a bit of common sense out of rules which were simply a best guess punt at something to protect the nation. No 10 is a rabbit warren. One persons gets Covid then everyone gets it & then they get herd immunity. In future they need a secure location which allows government to continue and protects everyone from not just bombs but viruses. There should be separate & specific rules for essential environments such running Government, Hospitals, warships etc. it is not rocket science.
Interesting, having worked in a number of enivonments & sectors I have sympathy for Boris feeling that gathering round someone’s desk on their leaving, birthday etc. is part of the work ethic & not a social activity. In many offices it was mandatory no one would dream of clocking off because the boss was instructing you to do it. Reallocaion of work, motivational talk etc. would all be on the agenda. In some sectors alcohol and/or coffee was provided and in some sectors a you would be expected to do some team building in the pub afterwards even if you didn’t drink. Boris was just trying to keep the troops motivated in his own inimitable style.
That’s behind a paywall. Could you give us a few bullet points from memory?
Masterfully written article, really can’t do it justice, however, in summary:
Joe Biden is a Roman-Catholic, Irish-American politician, w/ all the biases that the descriptors connote. Ten of sixteen great-(great?) grandparents emigrated from Ireland, at least some as a consequence of the Great Famine. These events are as current to him as if they had occurred yesterday.
Opposition to Ben Wallace is a combination of his early advocacy of tanks and F-16 training for UKR, as well as his service in British Army in NI during that period. UvdL deemed more malleable/controllable.
Long experience in US Senate, exposure to issues as a member of a debating society, not as one responsible a for design and implementation of policy. Disastrous counsel to a president re Syrian and Crimean conflict/takeover.
Disastrous Afghan withdrawal-enough said.
Timidity in response to Mad Vlad’s aggression.
Excellent article, filled in gaps in knowledge re Joe Biden’s motivations and career experience.
Very interesting. So competence, past experience serving in the military and more recent experience of being a Defence Sec (Wallace vs UvdL) counted for nothing!
‘The Free World’ waits with interest to see who will be your next President!
BTW, I read recently that the US payment for servicing the National Debt (annually) is just about to exceed that spent by the US on Defence annually!!
Suggest both interest and significant trepidation, as do American voters
As I see it, the Ukranian economy is roughly where Poland was in 2000 – GDP per capita about $5-6k.
Since 2000 Poland has tripled its economic size.
That is the route for Ukraine ones Russia/Putin have been repulsed, via manufacturing – especially arms, IT, agriculture, energy, food production – amongst others. They need to add more value locally rather than being the fag end of Western supply chains.
Yet Poland cannot Manufactory its own tanks, so its net spend is up after years of being low. saving money over decades and now ramp up when someone is knocking at your door. is why Ukraine is in the position its in.
I don’t understand the row over Ukraine joining NATO it can’t join NATO now as it is fighting a war. This is made clear in all NATO documents on membership.
Secondly if you want a speedy end to the war give the weapons to Ukraine it wants and stop ham stringing its offensive potential
Aye Ukraine won’t be joining the same way Turkey won’t be joining the EU..
it’s a tragic state of affairs but between Russia and NATO they’ve really F%&@€ up that country. How are they going to win this war? Where are they getting the manpower or the ammunition from? . 2 million of its population have fled east and 10-15 million West out of a population of 45 million. A trillion in damage to infrastructure. It’s over the writing is on the wall despite the fantasist BS getting spouted in the MSM.
Russia produces 1.2 million artillery shells per year the US by comparison 85,000, the U.K. and EU laughably less that that .People need to get their head outa their backsides on this.
We need competent leaders and a realisation that our armed forces have been badly miss managed . If anyone thinks Von Der Layen is going to do a good job then good luck . She ran the German military into the ground as defence minister the list of embarrassing revelations are well documented.
🏴🇬🇧