According to Professor Keith Hartley, a renowned expert and former UN consultant and senior defence economist, there will be “no future” for Scottish warship building industry in an independent Scotland.
During a discussion at the Scottish Affairs Committee, Professor Hartley emphasised that the construction of warships could potentially come to a halt, resulting in a significant loss of employment opportunities.
Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross asked:
“Do you believe there is a future to defence shipbuilding in Scotland, should the country become independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?”
Professor Hartley responded:
“No. Sorry.”
He later added:
“An independent Scotland will presumably have a minute Navy—it will be like Ireland’s, for example, with offshore patrol vessels. It won’t have the demand for deep-water frigates and destroyers of the sort that are currently being built in Scotland, such as the Type 26 and Type 31. It won’t have that demand. It couldn’t afford them, anyhow—the unit cost for a Type 31 frigate is £250 million at least.
I do not know the size of an independent Scotland’s defence budget, but it is not going to be large. I do not think it would put a lot of resources into building advanced warships. In short, no, I do not see a future for a Scottish warship building industry in an independent Scotland.”
Independence not the only risk
The future of Scottish shipyards could be at risk if more Royal Navy orders are allowed to go overseas, a report by MPs has warned. The committee mentioned above, the Scottish Affairs Committee, recently called for “greater clarity” on where warships would be built in the coming decades.
The report by the Scottish Affairs Committee warns that the future prosperity of Scottish military shipbuilding is at risk through the lack of a clear drumbeat of orders exacerbated by opening procurement up for international competition.
The report comes on the heels of the awarding of a £1.6 billion contract for the construction of three naval support ships to an international consortium, which will result in a portion of the building work being conducted in Spain. The shipyards at Govan and Scotstoun, the last remaining shipyards on the Upper Clyde, heavily rely on future orders from the Royal Navy.
Currently, these yards are engaged in the Type 26 frigate programme and the Committee has requested information on expected orders in the 2030s.
The report also looks for answers on the awarding of the Fleet Solid Support ships to an international consortium, with some of each vessel being built in Spain while the majority will be built in Belfast.
The report can be accessed here: https://publications.
It’s all speculation, of course, but it would be difficult for rUK / English politicians in Westminster to commission ships from an independent Scotland. Again, all conjecture, but if Scotland did become independent it would hopefully remain within NATO, and maintain a close defence relationship with the rUK / England. There would be a lot of things to sort out and, like Brexit, many of the arguments would be more emotive than purely logical.
It wouldn’t remain a member of NATO, an independent Scotland would have to apply to join NATO. As we have seen with Sweden, membership is not automatic.
This is assuming the hard-left SNP choose to align with NATO. They could choose neutrality or worse.
Trade wise there would be hard borders between Scotland and the U.K., making the current situation with NI look a breeze by comparison.
It would also not be an immediate member of the EU. It would need to apply for that also. None of this is instantaneous or automatic.
Yes an independent Scotland would be outside the EU single-market, and the U.K. single-market. As a result businesses would move south to England, as the U.K. has a trade agreement with the EU, whereas a newly independent Scotland would not.
Joining the EU would takes years, require adoption of the Euro, and is not guaranteed of success. Scotland would be on course to become the new Moldova.
The admission of Scotland to the EU and NATO would be fast tracked for political reasons. First on the EU, laughing French and German politicians would relish sticking it to England. Second, the US would not want a gap in North Atlantic defence.
That’s a naive view.
NATO requires unanimous agreement, all it takes is the U.K. or France/Spain to say “no” and that’s it. Assuming Scotland applies, we already know they the SNP are anti-nuclear and anti-American. They’d probably declare neutrality.
EU membership requires a huge amount of bureaucracy and legal checks, as existing candidate states will affirm. There is no fast-track process nor is there a legal framework to create one.
Secondly both France and Spain have internal separatist movements. Rejecting Scotlands membership would signal to them that if they were to gain independent they would be outside the EU too. Internal politics and keeping their countries together is far more important than some childish ‘sticking it to’ the English.
There would be a primary political imperative … to ensure the unity of the European space. Scotland’s admission would likely be seen as a “vtial signal” of Europe coming together under the EU banner. I believe it would be made to happen regardless of bureaucratic/political impediments.
NATO is less critical since the RN would still be in Faslane for a while (the Sevastopol of the British Isles). But eventually, Scotland would be admitted to NATO if it wants in.
The bureaucrats in Brussels with their federal plans for Europe will accept the membership of any backwater that wants to join. Such is there imperial ambitions.
But the decisions is not there’s, it’s down to the member states it’s doubtful whether they would accept membership of yet another net recipient of aid. The EU’s budget took a huge hit when the U.K., a large net contributor left. Other net contributors are not going to be keen on further net recipients joining, especially given they’ve already committed to Ukraine joining.
I would disagree…. I can see Spain blocking any moves to rejoin NATO/EU…. The Spanish will in no way want to encourage the separatists in the Catalan region by allowing a region of another country to gain independence and then rejoin all the institutions as though nothing had happened….
It’s like the EU wanting to punish the UK for Brexit, they have to show other EU nations thinking of leaving that there is a heavy price to pay…
Spain have already said there would be no issue, seeing Scotland as a ‘nation’ bound only by a treaty between equals, being entirely different to Catalonia as a ‘province’
Of course one of SNPs prime reason for separation is Nukes on there soil. But of course US will want access for their bombers, it make SNPs non nuke argument irrelevant as a reason to leave the UK when you’re going to left another bigger more powerful nuke nation access. US will 100% leverage this as part of membership deal.
Why would the UK grant Scotland independence then refuse it to join NATO, seriously I can’t believe you wrote that. 🤣😂
Jim
No different to Ireland. If Ireland wants to join NATO (it appears they don’t), they can’t join if UK says no. If they did join, what would they bring to the party? What would Scotland bring? NATO is not meant to be a free ride.While Scotland is important re the North Atlantic, it is not critical. Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Canada, USA, UK are critical because they create real gaps if they are not there. Scotland would just become another Ireland.
rUK would seriously want indeed need facilities in Scotland to operate effectively if it is to seriously police the upper reaches of the North Sea and protect Russian entry into the Atlantic. There would be ongoing serious negotiations on such subjects with priorities and quid pro quos being part of it and how quickly these negotiations progress will dictate such matters of access to NATO and even the EU as cross border agreements would be vital to Scotlands viability and prosperity. So it’s all difficult to determine at this stage what the effects and timings would be throughout. As for ship building it would suit both Countries to maintain the status quo for some years as the yards can’t just be closed down and work transferred. But subject to those overall negotiations I suspect it would be a slow transformation away from Scotland as other options are built up assuming and depending upon Bae and Babcock’s willingness and cooperation. Would Bae be inclined to get out of shipbuilding here rather than to re locate certainly large quantities of UK Govt money would be required to do so, a lot of Scottish no doubt consider staying in whatever form. Babcock would be perhaps more cooperative as they may see it as option to become the UK main military ship builder and it’s a vital business to them in support of their worldwide facility management efforts. As for support ships I can’t see over time an Independent Scotland getting any longer term work at all there and beyond any then applying contracts all business would go elsewhere be it in the UK or abroad simply because that would be the easier work to remove from them especially as present moves with H&W set up a preparatory network to accomplish it outside of Scotland and potentially warships too if investment was forthcoming, I’m sure Fincantieri would love the offer of playing a role in. Building UK warships given a chance and for Britain in those worst case circumstances perhaps the best maybe even only realistic option to take twenty years down the line if they wanted at least uk oriented construction over Scottish.
Faslane??? On you go mate – try to convince Londoners they need a nuclear base on their doorstep.
Do you not understand democracy?!?
IF HMG granted Scotland another referendum on independence and the Yes campaign won, then HMG would have to abide by the democratic decision.
However it doesn’t mean that HMG has to take any action that is beneficial to Scotland. Indeed, HMG might be inclined to take actions, such as declining NATO membership, to show how disastrous the independence decision was. Actions which would fuel a ‘rejoin the U.K.’ campaign.
If Scotland were to separate then it would be done legally. Spain and France do not have a leg to stand on in an objection to this, Catalonia handled their separation poorly and was unconstitutional. They did not do any home work. Breton separation movements currently are small in number, they are trying to unite their two departments that Brittany is split into for starters.
Scotland was part of the EU for 45 years so being part of the EU again would be a very fast entry. Like wise for NATO.
Its up to the Scottish people to decide.
Spain and France don’t “need a leg” to object to Scotland joining the EU, they don’t even need a reason, a simple “no” is sufficient.
Even if Scotland gained candidate status, it would have to go through all the other bureaucratic and legal checks that every candidate state goes through. It would take years and not be a fast entry.
If the U.K. says “no” then Scotland would not be able to join NATO, period. Given the SNPs anti-nuclear and anti-NATO gripes I doubt they’d even apply. Like Eire they’d hope others to cover their backs without spending any money themselves.
Spain and France would need to fully justify any block they would have to Scotland’s legal separation to the EU. It would have to be a very good justification which I really cannot see.
As for NATO, it’s in the everyone’s best interest that Scotland is in the alliance. Nuclear or otherwise.
Spain and France wouldn’t have to justify it, they are only required to give a yes or no.
Eire isn’t in NATO so what makes you think the SNP would even want to join. Especially given they’d be expected to pay 2% of GDP on defence. I can’t see the peacenik/hard-left SNP being keen on that.
I see that we don’t have consensus about Spain and France.
Yes Éire is not in NATO and I don’t understand why you brought it up since we are talking about Alba.
If Scotland becomes independent, the SNP will not always be the ruling party. So defence ideas would change from administration to administration.
Because Eire was the last country to leave the Union obviously. 🤦🏻♂️
Really? Scotland is looking like a one party state with the SNP being in power for 16 years.
Assuming another political party ever gets to form the administration, if you’re suggesting Scotland may join, leave, rejoin NATO every time a different party takes power… well the same could be said for rejoining the U.K. too…
Ahhh! I see what you are talking about. I did not see that discussion about Éire.
My bad what I meant was post Scottish independence, if it occurs, there will be other parties in power. That would be inevitable. That’s where gdp % towards defence would change as well as policy.
No I am not suggesting revolving door entry into NATO , EU or UK for every change in administration.
After independence the SNP would cease to exist. Any future government would be a coalition of centre left and centre right politicians.
Why would it cease to exist? Please point me to where in the SNP constitution it says that upon independence the party would be abolished and all elected representatives would resign their sears.
Spain would fight tooth and nail to keep Scotland out of the EU. If they joined it would set a precedent for their catalan region making their call for independence louder.
They would certainly want exclusive supply of langoustines that’s for sure.
What an risk Spains fragmentation. Nope sorry.
Where are you from Sean? I have wondered for some time. Some of your points are well reasoned, then other times you juts come out with a load of **** to stir people up. Clearly neither economics or Geo politics is your strong point.
Thank goodness someone else see’s through the “Sean” persona. That’s if it is “Sean”, see he posts under various names…..
Oh the conspiracy is strong in this one 😆
Seriously do you think I have the time to post under different names? I’ve always considered that a pointless tactic anyway. Please elucidate as to what what possible benefit I’d gain from that? 🤷🏻♂️
Ditto with using a fake name.
Oh no it’s not the guy from Milton Keynes again is it 😇
He will hate me saying this but I think Sean is pretty much on the money in both his posts. Whilst the EU may be in favour, the shear bureaucratic process will not make it easy for Scotland. Especially when, as stated above, some countries like Spain, have a vested interest in saying no.
Yeah it makes me feel filthy that you are agreeing with me…
But I suppose you agree that gravity exists and the earth isn’t flat… so there’s consolation that no matter how disgusting and repugnant your propaganda is concerning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, you’re going to agree on the obvious.
I come from a position of reasoned, logical positions, based on actual facts. As a result I don’t fit into one of the polarised political positions that people like to slot their opponents into.
Clearly debating is not your strong point, hence the decent into ad hominem attacks – which of course is always a sign you know you’ve lost.
The Scottish people will make the vital decision in the face of exaggeration, lies, threats, and deception on both sides. Does that mean independence stands a chance? If UK warship building goes, there would be enough local know-how to build vessels for other nations but would need to be hard-won. As for other industries, the current UK industrial is in difficulty, so just imagine trying to establish a viable Scottish industry on the back of this state of affairs.
No forgetting the Scottish economy would either be using a brand new currency of its own or using the now foreign Pound Sterling. The obvious disadvantage of the latter being that the BoE would set the value of Sterling to suit the UKs economy, not Scotlands.
Meanwhile the large amount of governmental public-sector work for the the U.K. that is based in Scotland would be moved south. This would be an even bigger blow than the closure of the Scottish shipyards. While Scotland would need its own public-sector, it would be much smaller, servicing 6million rather than 68million citizens.
It is not a done deal that Scotland would be granted EU membership. They would be a met drain on EU finance and some countries like Spain may object to a separatist country joining.
I think Scottish shipbuilding would not survive independence. The idea that it would be shipbuilding as usual with the RN would be a pipe dream.
Like you I did originally think Scotland would be a net recipient of EU funds…
but once Ukraine gets EU membership, I think EVERY other nation in the EU is going to have to contribute to Ukraine’s rebuilding. It’s going to be a huge shock to those countries that have been receiving huge grants from the EU for decades!
Perhaps Sean, but only on a different planet to this one! First off, being in the single market and being in the EU are vastly different things. Being in the single market simply requires ‘rules, standards and regulations’ to be closely aligned, (which despite westminster’s best efforts, they currently still are). Apart from that, it requires little more that agreement to freedom of movement. I presume your comment regarding ‘business moving to s.england is opinion . . . . or do you actually have any data/evidence to support the conjecture?
The SNP are committed to joining the EU, not just the single market.
In the run-up to the 2014 independence referendum businesses registered in Scotland began registering new companies in London in case the yes campaign won. This was particularly so within the financial sector, who also started transferring funds to their new English registered entities. Or did you not watch any tv or read any newspapers in 2014? 🤦🏻♂️
Google is providing a staggering benefit of 6850 USD per week in local currency, which is amazing considering that I was laid off in a very horrible financial situation a year ago. “W Many Thanks Google Dependably for Gifting the ones Rules and Soon It’s My Commitment to Pay and Rate It With Everyone..
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Independent Scotland or even Alba, would likely be a parasite on Britain’s defensive infrastructure. Much like Southern Ireland Eire. Even placing further orders at this time is risky. Far better to develop a dispersed ship building capability in several locations across the UK, with orders spread around. It will require duplication and some waste but in times of war, having multiple production facilities is a good thing. These are military orders after all and the world is rapidly becoming a far more dangerous place.
No risk at all.
• Scotland isn’t getting a referendum
• the majority are against independence
• the SNP are never going to try a Rhodesia/Catalan UDI
Hi Sean, I’m pleased you think that way. On this subject I’m a pessimist, with good reason. As long as the SNP dominate in Scotland, the threat of breaking away is real.
I love Scotland, great country and excellent people. It’s just a few minutes drive from here up the A696. We have family ties with the Highlands and Islands. Almost relocated my family there a few years ago. I know Edinburgh better than London. It’s considerably more British in nature. Fusilier Drummer L/Cpl Lee Rigby would not have been beheaded had he been stationed there.
The fact that the SNP hold power, cannot be ignored.
Well it’s not an impossibility. But if withdrawing from the EU after 47 years was traumatic, imagine what Scotland’s withdrawal from the U.K. after 316+ years will be like… That should be enough to put most people off.
Ditto, having be born and raised on Tyneside, and maternal side of the family originating from Scotland I love the place too. One of my planned holidays this year is visiting friends in Shetland.
Cameron was foolish to even allow the possibility of such a thing to take place. And splitting the union should require more than a simple majority amongst those happening to live in a particular part of it at the time of the referendum.
Cheers Sean fellow Geordie. It is a small world. My family ties are with Shetland too. Lerwick, Scalloway and Papil. My wife’s parents are buried in the Papil church graveyard. At least one of the relatives serve in the Lerwick TA.
If more people realised how nice it is up there in the summer, it would be a tourist hot spot. Although when the liners visit from Scandinavia it can be quite crowded in Lerwick. I’ve back packed the entire length of the mainland island. Slept one night in a Broch, fished in dozens of lochs and eaten countless camp fire cooked rabbits. Oh to be young again.
Yup a Geordie, though if you want a more precise, a Sandancer. 😏
Unfortunately my family records are less clear on my mothers side. Lore is that her family were fishermen in Orkneys/Shetlands – uncertain which – but had to move to Scotland after most of the men of the family were lost in an ill-fated rescue attempt of a stricken ship.
Never been up there, but a good friend has a contract up there for the next year so a good opportunity to visit. Hoping to visit Mousa Broch amongst other sights.
Exactly sean. Issue is put to bed. If a vote ever happens again and for some reason actually succeeded even though every indicator says it won’t, that is when everything will be worked out. Over the many years between a vote, actual separation then a long transition period.
If it started going tits up in the transition you can bet there will be a lot of calls to scrap the whole thing.
If they do with the tech transfer from Spain and Belfast building ships again. Would have the 3 support ships finished. Could we not put in for type 32.think that’s why government bringing Belfast back to life to send Scotland a message.
Could be to give options for future naval orders (as you suggest), to shore up the unionist vote in NI, to boost the NI economy in the wake of Brexit and the border agreement, etc, etc. Probably a combination of reasons, and some are just unexpected bonuses.
But if Type 32 turns out to be based on the Type 31, as is frequently speculated, then Babcock and their new frigate factory is the obvious choice for the contract.
??? If Scotland were to leave ‘the united kingdom’ then there would not be a remaining ‘united kingdom’, there would only be England and the province of Cymru and the colony of Ulster. You would therefore have England and Scotland as separate nations both of which are currently in nato as part of ‘the uk’. It’s difficult to see your reasoning as to why the separate nation of England would remain in nato, but Scotland would not? Either both can remain as separate entities or both can not . . . . or is your view fogged by outdated colonialism?
That you call Ulster a colony shows how politically deranged and out of touch with reality you are.
England, Wales, Northern Ireland would continue to be called the United Kingdom unless they chose to change their name. It’s a name, not a technical description.
As Scotland would have left the U.K., it would be regarded as a new nation with England, Wales, NI regarded under international law as the “successor state”. As such it would retain its membership of the UN, it’s seat as a P5 member of the Security Council, membership of G7, NATO, OEDC, etc, etc.
As a new state, Scotland would be a member of none of these and would have to apply.
This was all set out in 2014 and even the SNP admitted to this… But we’ve already established you were asleep/drunk for the whole of that year.
I don’t care about where the nations warships are built. It’s hypocrisy to say we’ll always build our own.many of us drive foreign cars, don’t we?
Better value for money and faster product ion. That is what the nation need’s
The value for money is not true. If you buy a foreign vessel the entire cost is the cost to the tax payer added to that would be the cost of regeneration and support to the unemployed…so a 1billion pound warship would cost more that 1billion pounds to the taxpayer. If we purchase a 1billion pound warship from a UK yard, a very large percentage of that spend gets returned to the government as tax base from vat,income tax,corporation tax etc( probably 20-40%). So the actual real cost to the taxpayer is actually more like 700million. Then there is the lost export opportunity….even if they are not built here the type 26 and type 31 foreign orders generate a large number of exports from the supply chain..which is all increased tax base.
Government spending is funny like that, take the NHS, around half of NHS costs are staff pay…..the staff then pay at least 50% of their pay back to the government in taxes. Most of the rest of the budget is used to buy stuff in the UK , a lot of which is made in the UK and taxed that way so a good 40% of the NHS budget is cycled straight back into the treasury. Stuff the government commission from abroad is never recycled back into the tax base.
Otherwise you are living the offshoring falacy to the full.
Which is fine if you don’t want to produce cheap tat at home.
The major reason offshoring was popular in heavy industry was that the unions couldn’t strangle things all the time and if they tried to be too awkward…..
Yes the Union movement got a bit funny in the 1970s especially in heavy industries, lost its balance a bit.
My philosophy is the uncontrolled Market is for the private individual and private sector ( we have a right to buy the cheapest and If we wish to balance with things like the green agenda or supporting local industries that’s our choice) . The government on the other hand should ensure every tax pound spend maximises every possible benefit to the UK, not just to purchase a widget, but wider economic and societal concerns as well. It should also focus the tax pounds on the longterm well-being of the nation.
100% 👍🏻
Certainly buying stuff that we need an export licence to use as we wish thereafter, really is not a very sensible solution and very much more costly potentially in the long run especially in terms of circumstances well beyond monetary value. Indeed for example having Challengers to send to Ukraine has had enormous implications and effects even if they now never actually reach the Country.
Yes you could understand it 30+ years ago when things just seemed so self destructive in UK industry but in the end we just bit off our nose to spite our face and now suffering for it and trying to re build as we realise an economy as narrow as the uks is massively and competitively disadvantageous against other Countries most of whom are enforcing technological transfer so as to create new industries even if it is initially more costly.
BL and Renault were equally basket cases and cash cows back in the 70s one was deemed expendable, the other not. Which Country did the better job and gained the greater benefits in the end? It’s how you invest that money and what the expectations and aims are when you do that counts simply having the aim of breaking worker power has become totally self destructive to UK PLC.
Very interestingly as well, sometime a nation is Broken not by the power of the workforce and unions but by the power of the leaders of industry and elites. Japan is a great example, it was once an industrial powerhouse..but with pretty much unrestricted power its elite leaders have effectively destroyed its economy with stupid choices and an utter focus on their own power…Going from a nation with house prices that were hight than the Uks, wages that were higher than the UK…to a nation now buying a house is pointless ( it’s always worth less than you paid for it), has lower wages than the UK, has a massive fiscal black hole every year, has a population that is aging and running out of young people yet refuses immigration and has a national dept 3 times its GDP. Get that balance wrong and don’t focus like a laser on national well being and your going to end up on the losing end of a nation that is utterly focused.
Thank God, someone on the same sheet!
That’s short-termism if the companies/Countries providing that for you are doing it for ulterior motives benefiting themselves, removing your ability to design an build such products, allowing them to build their own competitors control pricing and then dictate terms all for buying into short term loss leading that only benefits those with a longer term view in the end.
By saying “Brexit”, you are saying eu is a Country. That’s why we left that stinking empire.
Yes in the event of Scotland becoming a separate nation it’s unlikely The United Kingdom would build warships in Scotland. Just to note, the rUK is not a name it’s a made up term, the legal names of our nation would remain the United Kingdom as would its longer version until and unless we decided to change them…just a note the historically the name the “United Kingdom” became one of two legal names for our nation in 1801 when Ireland jointed, it’s remained the legal name after Ireland left in 1920, so Scotland leaving would make no difference…the second longer legal name for our nation may get changed via an act of parliament as it did in 1926 ( changing from the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Ireland to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)
As noted by others Scotland would have to go through the process of applying for membership, any single member could veto membership ( Spain could as it would not want a separatist state to have an easy ride, Turkey could for any number of reasons etc).
To retain any chance of remaining on the UNSC post any Scottish independence, it is likely, as you say, that we would have to retain the same United Kingdom Great Britain and Northern Ireland name.
Let’s be very honest about the UNSC the permanent seats are actually all about those nations that could end the world..Scotland being in the UK or not in the UK and the final name of our nation would be irrelevant ( Scotland is 4% of the UK population).what matters is our 4 nuclear ballistic missile submarines, our sub launched intercontinental range ballistic missiles and 150 nuclear warheads and nothing else. If you can trigger the end of the world you’re at the table if you cannot you’re not. the permanent seats at the UNSC are in effect the ultimate expression of offensive power nuclear power.
With a view to Ukraine why hadn’t Russia lost its place in the security council?
As above, nuclear Missiles…its the constant for all the permanent members…have 100+ nuclear warheads that can be delivered via an intercontinental ballistic missile and can cause a war that ends humanity…have a seat..the UNSC is not a moral organisation, in reality and at its heart it’s role is to try and prevent WW3, as such Russia has to be at the table or it becomes pointless. It’s role is not to prevent war and suffering…the veto makes sure of that….it’s basically there to try and limit the contagion of a conflict so the five major nuclear powers do not end up shooting at each other.
Who actually owns the missiles. Let’s try not to get so puffed up shall we.
OOOOOOOOOH handbag time.
We own the missiles, they are just in a shared pool..you do understand the concept of a shared pool ? Happy to send a few articles over if needed.
Also it’s not puffed up, it’s a simple reality of what a permanent seat on the UNSC is actually about. Not if you can do the. Greatest good etc etc but If you can trigger a global thermonuclear war. Personally if we could removed all thermonuclear and nuclear weapons from the planet I would…being able to trigger the end of humanity is not something to be “puffed up” about and using such word makes a very serious issue seem a bit shallow don’t you think ?
Permanent membership of the Security Council of the United Nations has NOTHING to do with the possession or otherwise of nuclear weapons! It was merely the victorious powers at the end of World War Two. Nobody but the USA had atomic weapons when the UN was set up and the permanent security council established.
If that is the case why are ROC not still a permanent seat member and the Chinese communist party are a member.
The ROC who were a member as one of the victorious powers were removed as a member in 1971 and replaced by the Chinese communists part ( as the defecto government of mainland China) this just happens to occur a couple of years after the Chinese communists party evidenced the fact they could place a thermonuclear device on an intercontinental ballistic missile and fire it.
yes at its inception 75+ years ago the permanent seats were given to the victorious powers, but from 1971 onwards it was all about who could launch thermonuclear devices across the globe. The fact the only non thermonuclear power had its permanent seat removed and was replaced with a power that had launched an intercontinental Ballistic missile with a 25MT warhead indicates its everything about it.
do you you think nations like Germany, Korea or Japan etc would allow a blizzard “we won the war club” to continue in the UN 80 years after that war ended without a very specific reason…and that it’s a bizarre coincidence that all the permeant seats are all thermonuclear powers with the ability to use them globally or the only government to ever be removed and was a government without such weapons and the only government to join was one that had just evidenced it was one of those nuclear powers..
There is what is taut in a GCSE history book, then there is geopolitical drivers and the reality of geopolitical powers and how they shape the world. There is no rule book around who gets a permanent security seat council…it just so happens every seat member can trigger the end of the world…and every other nation that is not a security seat council member cannot…this situation was and created by the purposeful application of power.
👍🏻
It seems that it’s already a big problem for Westminster to commission ships right now in Scotland! Couldn’t get much worse!
Look what was promised nearly 9 years ago just before the Independence referendum: that there would be huge support from Westminster by the regular commissioning of navy shipsin Scotland..the number promised never materialised.
The term independence is a joke. I don’t feel any more empowered now we are out of the EU. I don’t think that transfer of power from aparatchiks of Brussels to politicians in Westminster has made my personal situation any better and nor do I feel my voice is any more heard. My MP is as totally unresponsive now as he always has been. I don’t think the country is better off, and in the long run I don’t think it will be much worse off. I know the transition is making my situation worse in the short run. I expect if I chatted to someone in Kirkwall or Perth they’d feel no more connected to Holyrood than Westminster or Brussels. Come to think of it, last time I chatted to someone in Stromness they hated Mainlanders (Scottish mainlanders that is) more than the English.
The only people who gain are the politicians to whom power has moved. The same politicians telling us “we” can take back power. For those of us who believe the whole can be greater than the sum of the parts, the current political trend towards me-ism is painful.
That naval shipbuilding would move out of Scotland gives me no pleasure. It’s just more costs and more overheads to pay for, with skilled workers having to uproot their families to follow where the work is. How can anyone take pleasure in that?
That is an accurate description of how far removed “ordinary” people are from those political clowns in office. The EU, and most governments in the west are mired in corruption and sleaze at all levels. False promises elect them, then a litany of excuses becomes the norm. Meanwhile services get worse or collapse completely. Funnily, or not, taxes go up for the majority, whilst the sleaze balls get richer by “legal” avoidance. Talk to any Loyalist in NI and they will colourfully describe how millions truly feel. To be sold lie after lie is a cross most seem willing to bear.
Until a better system is made available it’s the best we have. It’s far from perfect but preferable to any other system that’s in use across the world.
I think the illusion that some career politician should know how to run a huge department and steer it in the right direction needs popped.
The rich do seem to always be fine while everyone else suffers. If we think of wealth as a limited item then it absolutely makes sense if some people have more of it, less is available for other people. Some say it can’t be measured like that and wealth is essentially unlimited. I don’t know what to believe.
Can we move on from all this. Get on and build up the Navy or stay home. If I can be repetitive now, any news on the Carriers defensive arms upgrade? The recent FSS ships seem to have a Phalanx and MSI VSHORAD 30mm RWS combination, something the carriers could also have.
Slow news day.
The FSSS doesn’t yet exist; the pictures are indicative and iterative. Where did you hear about the MSI/30mm combo? I can see a bow-sited R2D2 on the pictures, but I can’t spot the others. It’s funny, but it’s only when I look at the Phalanx does the scale of the ship really spring out.
given the right thoughts, Fuss ships could come from ships taken and refitted from trade we’re getting our pants in a twist too late.the ones we’ve had,, were retired too early
I believe it’s on a recent Navy Lookout article. Some really excellent cgis from different angles. I’ll try and copy the link.
A recent Team Resolute Navy Lookout article. The link is below…and has been flagged waiting approval. Good T32 article there too.
Thanks, yes. I think I can see them. I couldn’t have identified them if you hadn’t said what they were.
The Albions Must be given better protection than they have been. People forget that they are capital ships. Which poor sap from the bowels of the powers that would be, how a major unarmed warship with its crew, a hundred or so royal marines and all the equipment was lost? It wouldn’t be Westminster, the MOD,or the Admiralty. They’d be unavailable for comment.
Yes, with you Andy. Add some additional 40mm, or some 30mm RWS if missile systems are too expensive.
They have 2 x 30mm already.
Really changing then for 3P 40mm and adding 12+ Sea Ceptor (maybe containerised) would be the proper fit.
Sea Ceptor can be cued in lots of ways so it does necessarily need to be in cues from the Albion CMS.
Albions should have T45 escorts, which emphasizes that we really need more escort vessels and not type 26 cruisers(they’re NOT FRIGATES AND I DON’T CARE ABOUT ARGUMENTS TO THE otherwise)!
Cannot disagree with that, they should be Looking at all warships moving to the 40mm that’s going to arm the T31 that should be come the standard CIWs. They should also consider levering 8-16 cold launched CAMM on each of the major warships as long as it does not cause issues with their primary function.
I like the look of tRam 116 system, used as a Cuws and short/medium air defence system it’s used by over a dozen nations and even fitted to the American carriers, it’s quite a compact frame, not much bigger than a phalanx.theRN could make good use of the type. In many areas of the fleet, it’s cheap too. In comparison to the ceptor.and it’s dual role ability, would make good sense.
This is starting to sound like a stuck record. It is protectionism versus free market economics at the end of the day. If we can buy hulls overseas that meet spec? So what. If it meets the need, does what it says on the tin, buy it. All these repetitive articles do is increase the yawn factor. Guess what UKDJ? There is a whole world of defence issues to report on….😂
Buying hulls overseas hmn? Because hulls are outfitted and fully fitted as much as possible during build. Building abroad is far more expensive in terms of loss of TAX clawback! Loss of people and skills and capacity. China goes to war with the West and has invaded South Korea. We ask for ships from South Korea (where the hugely expensive and year late Tide ships were built) because we are not capable of building ships ourselves. Answer from South Korea is not what UK politicians expected as they are not that bright or rather, have enjoyed having ships built abroad. The hulls for warships are not expensive, the systems are. What do suggest?
I will trade in my Kia then, got me worried now.
Of course, your Kia is of strategic importance. When you buy a kia, you are not the paymaster general (unlike the UK government) who gets the tax back.
The problem with this idea is you are ignoring the circular economy. You send money overseas – it is gone. If they never buy anything back from you, you will never see it again.
Money spent at home goes back into the home economy. Companies make profit – they pay tax. If they buy from local suppliers, they make profits & pay tax. Every employee makes money & pays tax. Any money spent by said employee that is spent locally (groceries etc), also feeds back into the economy (the grocery, it’s employees, the farmers etc etc). Every person with a real job is one less person the government has to support. The real price a government pays for something like a warship built at home is not the same as a warship built overseas at the same upfront price. This is economics 101. You forgot to read the fine print on “free market economics”.
Thanks for informing me of my complete ignorance.
B a e which we love to trumpet on this website all the time has absolutely massive holdings in the United States and that money is not coming back either.
Stand by…..yaaaaaawn
Yawn… its like groundhog day.
It’s not rocket science here, independent Scotland would not have the ship building industry it has today.. it’s far from clear over time would the rest of the UK actually be ordering frigates in the quantity that makes developing our own worth while.. more likely be forced to buy French designs (collaborative).
Over time an independent Scotland would say goodbye to ship building, probably nuclear subs as well and other industries, not necessarily a bad thing as others could take their place.. nothing is forever.
Independence isn’t going to change the fact a government somewhere will make decisions, sum you agree with some you don’t
It should be the likes of krankie sturgeon who has to answer to these issues, it might be her that has to answer for it.
The u.k should be looking to re re-establishing ship build elsewhere such as devonport, pompe And the north east.where decent prospects for the future can be established. The Clyde has an arrogant expectation of getting the orders for new warship’s, the investment in shipbuilding has been lacklustre.now we actually do have orders for the navy, there’s not enough places to build them.chipperields circus at
the MOD, the Admiralty And Westminster since the 1970’s is to blame for that
I see, so getting Appledore and Belfast, with its super sized dry dock, back on track isn’t a useful first step?
Enough politics today everyone
Aye, with you on that one Andy. Sunday night here in Sydney. Have a good Sunday up there. 🇦🇺 🇬🇧
Hear Hear
No
More
I love reading comments as it gives me a laugh the way people see things
And before you comment RFAs are NOT classed as warships so can go out to tender (think of the Tides ) warships have ultra sensitive stuff in them which means they should only built in the UK only
“Do you believe there is a future to defence shipbuilding in Scotland, should the country become independent from the rest of the United Kingdom?”
The UK is not a mini un organisation or mini eu empire, the UK is a Country! You cannot have countries within a Country. There is no such thing as countrets.
oh dear 😂
Not an answer.
OT:
Merlin helicopter pilot talks:
https://hushkit.net/2023/01/24/interview-with-merlin-helicopter-pilot/
Can fly in conditions (not specified over land) that Blackhawks can’t.
Pilots boast that USN submarines are more afraid of them than USN Seahawks
Expensive, complicated due to 3 engines and necessary gearbox and the fact there are a small number in service.
Says it does a very good job while pointing deficiencies.
Thanks Alex for that, enjoyed reading that, I find it interesting how the Merlin whilst not a direct competitor for the somewhat similar NH90, has seen less sales, especially seeing as how so many nations are currently ditching the NH90.
Merlin is a big heli, can’t go to most frigates hangars that have Seahawk/Nh90 size, it is also very expensive.
If you want to check get an Italian FREMM stern view and see the hangar size doors difference. The bigger one is for Merlin the other for NH90.
Portuguese Merlin SAR
https://www.key.aero/article/portugals-sar-aw101-merlin-lifesavers
Yeah sure… And there’s hardly any of them in any real war they would die rapidly. At least with a near competitor…. Or the country that is so allegedly afraid of them.. quality is one thing… Quantity is kind of a thing. We all know how wonderful the UK kit is… We hear about it on this website all the time. In reality it is a very very dangerous assumption.
Ah diddums, still angry and feeling like taking your inadequacies out on others.
There is no future for Scotland at all, regardless of whether it’s shipbuilding or whatever, outside of the United Kingdom.
Thankfully the Scottish electorate know it, and krankie will be gone sooner than what most think. Her negatives are piling up …
The SNP’s missing ships myth sent the message better than anything that ship building in Scotland was on MoD funded life support.
the title of the article is so obvious I’m surprised anyone would think otherwise. Perhaps if 2 countries are making joint projects a case could be made for final assembly in one country with parts coming from other. Or a situation like one country is building ships worth x amount and the other country is building aircraft worth roughly the same x amount.
I don’t get why some people supported having a referendum on membership of the EU but membership of the Uk is totally unacceptable.
Asking the public to make decisions based on a yes/no question when the outcome of the result with have 1000s of impacts is stupid.
MS wrote:
I’ve said it before, and I will say it again. I am pro-Eu, I fully understand why Europe should band together for a better future. But that said, a vote by the people for the people has to be respected . We saw this in Scotland in 2014, and we saw it in the Uk in 2016. We didn’t see it in Ireland , Denmark, France and Holland where votes by the people for the people regards the EU were rejected, in the former 2, the EU refused to accept their vote and made them vote again, with the latter 2, they simply ignored the vote altogether.
What we see with the Scottish and the remainer crowd is simply to ape the EU mandarins and refuse to accept votes which go against them. Both of the above subscribe to the notion of the rise of English nationalism (Aka far-right) as the reason why their wishes to leave the Uk and rejoin the EU should be met, but the fact remains whislt there has been a huge rise in nationalism it isn’t in England, we see it in Scotland, Wales and Ireland we also see it across the EU, be it France, Germany, Poland, Spain , Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania and Italy.
But for some reason Nationalism in those countries is of the good sort , but anybody taking pride in the UK can only be deemed as a Nazis in the making. It worries me, how so many Scottish people openly attack the British empire as evil, and that the Scottish were somehow vassels or worse victims trodden under by the jackboot of London, yet and a big yet, it was the peaceful union of 2 waring siblings in 1707 which resulted in the United Kingdom which together carved an empire.
As I mentioned above I am pro EU and honestly believed that with the Uk leaving the EU , it would result in Brussels (or Strasburg) sorting its act out, with the Uk re-joining later, sorry to say I have seen nothing of the sort and at this moment in time I wouldn’t trust France, Germany, Spain, Ireland or Belgium as a friend of the Uk seen as the first 2 run the EU and the other 3 are vassals of those 2 , it isn’t hard to see why the EU hates the UK so much seeing (with the exception of Belgium) that for these countries hatred of the Uk is woven into their f-ing political DNA.
So back to Scotland, and boat building, all I see with that report is a demand by a majority of Scottish MPs for more money to be spent on Scotland , (nothing wrong with that) which is strange as the nationalists amongst them openly dance to the tune of leaving the Uk. But hey I am talking MPs here, the current crop across the land who appear to care more for their own wallets , sexual deviants and anybody who hates the Uk than the people who voted them in.
I shall now retire to my safe space (rum and coke in hand) don my tin lid and wait for the incoming.
Oh regards my point about how certain EU leader hate us:
https://i.postimg.cc/gJnW57HW/img318.jpg
My safe space is also well visited. All of what was said is reasonable. Some may not agree and can disagree openly thanks to wonderful society we live in.
Oh yeah I know the difference but either referendums are good for making big national decisions or not.
Personally I think it’s stupid asking people one question when what that question and the answers mean are so many different things to different people.
Leaving aside some of this Scotland/uk stuff a moment. The real big question is what sort of shipbuilding industry do we want/need? ( be it military or civil). There is plenty of very run down /out of use capability in terms of the very basics. ( hard standing deep water etc etc) much of the remaining (out of use or just no longer there )infra structure needs massive capitol investment if it is needed to be in use. We do have the design capability. To me the questions are is there both the political will to bring back heavy industry (especially with the net zero policy commanding all) and is there both a UK AND overseas demand? ( We have been very poor for a long time in in overseas orders both in new vessels and refits both commercial and military. This would need a political will which I do not see yet. Ultimately the yards are commercial. Looking to the future it is clear that the general run down of the military across the western world is having a rethink so a UK Gov rethink in terms of physical manufacturing is possible especially with the containerizing of equipment coming in so single hull can have various levels of cost added to it so this is an opportunity on the horizon if taken. Ultimately this all requires joined up thinking at Government level and then some good work inter government. The difficulties between the UK and Scotland will even if difficult will be found as there is money at stake. It can all certainly be done just look at the orders BAE are getting in the USA even they have dumped there home grown policy in some areas. I hate management speak but difficulties are there to be overcome if there is a will. No more excuses from hmg please we really do need a home grown industry again as the Uckrane/Russia set to has shown . In principle Wallace is good but needs a lot of support. so write to your MP’s we need the export licenses in our hands not those who can so NO. We need to big up UK plc. PS I am not looking back to the good old days I am looking forward in a very changed world. Rose tinted spectacles? well maybe but I will take some convincing.
I can not agree with this speculative article. If, and when Scotland were to become independent then the Royal Navy’s nuclear deterrent would still be firmly based at Faslane in Scotland. If this is indeed the case then why would the MOD not include Scottish shipbuilders who have the proven technological skills and experienced workforce to tender for this work. This surely, must work both ways. If Scotland can, and has been for decades hosting some of the most powerful and advanced warships in the world then why would it not be given the opportunity to build them. I’m looking at the Queen Elizabeth class carriers which were built, and one is currently being maintained, at Rosyth in Scotland.
Well to the rest of Britain Scotland would be classed has a foreign country, so they can’t expect to be given royal navy work, yes given
Thank you captain obvious
Yaaaaaaaaaawn
The anti-English racism (yes it is racism 100%) would be a blocker to any deal on defence with the SNP. I understand that Westminister has annoyed the Scots but there is this nasty undercurrent of anti-English hate that you can’t deny. Saying that, our own politicians like the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal democrats all hate white English people as well. We’re just here to pay all the taxes and take all the abuse. I certainly wouldn’t want any of my tax money going to Scottish defence if they keep up the anti-English racism.This country’s defence is in a whoeful shape anyway with one US general warning the UK is no longer a top level fighting force. We’ve known that for many years because of government death by a thousand cuts but it’s the first time the US has stated it so explicitly:
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/us-general-warns-british-army-is-no-longer-regarded-as-a-top-level-fighting-force-sources-say/ar-AA16StBd?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=d6989aa3c44d49b89c27c4ac4bc99941
What have all the three main parties done to this country’s defence, police, health service, immigration…the list goes on an on…We are a shambles and the potential break-up of the UK is just symptomatic of a wider malaise hitting the UK. We don’t have any growth as the politicians just waste money and don’t focus it on science, engineering, defence, manufacture – things that yield growth and enable us to sell actual products to other nations. We just deal in funny money and recirculate dodgy money from third world dictators e.g. middle east, Russia, dirty Chinese money and products. Where are the statemen and women that can rescue us from these idiots in Westminister that can’t even tell us the difference between a man and a woman….
What!? “our own politicians like the Conservatives, Labour and Liberal democrats all hate white English people as well.” THAT is just nonsensical, ridiculous groundless extreme right wing clap trap! For a start most Conservatives, Labour and Liberal democrat MP’s ARE white! Secondly it is groundless and based on pure prejudice.
SO, why do those who want Scottish independance want to keep Englands ship building, if they want independance?
Also why would ENgland want to keep Faslane or any scottish port? If you want independance from the UK then it means just that!
Im neither for or against Scottish independance but if the Scots want it then they must face the fact that we will be able to move our resources away from them.
A lot of uninformed and very biased comments on here regarding Scotland. To put the matter straight. 1. Regarding the EU single market, it has already been made clear that Scotland joining it depends on ‘standards, rules and regulations’ being closely aligned, which they are despite the toraigh hard right trying their best to destroy our trade with Europe. Scotland being in the single market can be accommodated without being in the EU, although that would surely follow – currently it needs little more than agreement to ‘freedom of movement’ to satisfy the EU. 2.The SNP are ‘not’ hard left, they are simply a long way left of the UK’s toraighs, who are anyway ‘outliers’ compared to most modern Western democracies. 3. Given that corporation tax, excise duty and a lot of other taxes currently leave Scotland and are never seen again after reaching westminsters coffers and that an independent Scotland would no longer be supporting capital projects and subsidies in London and the South East, it’s unlikely that they could not easily afford any navy they felt was appropriate to their needs. 4. If Scottish yards put in a competitive tender along with others from an ‘international consortium’ (e.g. Spain?), would a westminster government reject it, despite being the most competitive? – quite likely perhaps, but that is in the nature of vindictive colonialism which forms the backdrop to much that is driving the move to independence in Scotland. 5. There seems to be a presumption that on a break-up of the UK, England gets to keep the ball! Given the treaty of union is at least nominally a partnership of equals, then either they both have a choice of staying in NATO, or neither has a choice of staying in NATO – thinking otherwise is again, a facet of the colonial mind-set. Defence assets (along with any other state assets) under international law would also need to shared proportionally, hence Scotland would end up with approximately 10% of the Army/Navy/RAF both at home and overseas, or a financial settlement ‘in lieu’ would have to be negotiated. . . . . for the record, I am not Scottish!
More to the point. BAE have already done a cost exercise to move shipbuilding to Barrow. I’m sure Babcock will have done too. Scots workforce would follow the jobs.
In the end it all comes down to the facts:
Why do people continue to comment about this which is a non-issue. Nobody, but nobody says that the Royal Navy would be expected to continue commissioning ships from an independent Scotland. All these articles start off on this basis. However, what is ignored is that ship building capacity will remain in Scotland, it would just have to be re-purposed. And since the warship construction skills, or to be more accurate assembly of bought in parts, remain there it does open up an opportunity. In any event shipbuilding is a very small part of the overall economy and employment opportunities so the significance is not particularly high. Any industry existing solely on the basis of peripatetic political orders from one customer is always on dubious footings anyway. And who also says that Scotland would want to retain a blue-water global naval reach anyway?