Russian long-range air defence interceptor stocks have been depleted to the point where Moscow is having to make serious decisions about where it deploys them, a Western official has told the UK Defence Journal.
We asked whether the assessment is that Russian air defence stocks are genuinely running down to a point that would leave Russian cities and infrastructure more vulnerable than they have been, or whether the decline reported by Ukrainian intelligence in S-300 and S-400 interceptor reserves is being offset by external supplies.
“No, absolutely, 100 per cent. They’ve been depleted,” the official said.
The explanation offered was that the stockpiles were never intended for this. Those reserves existed “for defence of Russia in a campaign from NATO, not some sort of regional conflict with Ukraine”, the official said, with the consequence that “absolutely those numbers are dwindling, and Russia is having to make some really serious prioritisation decisions about where they employ those air defence assets.”
The depletion was explained by reference to a series of Ukrainian operations that Russian planning had not anticipated. Reflecting on how much has changed, the official said an intelligence officer five years ago would not have thought the present situation realistic, and that the same applies looking at it from the Russian side. Ukrainian drone strikes reaching the vicinity of the St Petersburg International Economic Forum, and Russian oil refining capacity down by 40 per cent at its peak, were described as completely unforeseeable by Moscow.
One measure of how acute the problem became was legislative as Russia introduced a law to mobilise reservists specifically for the air defence of oil refineries, the official said, a step taken late last year in response to the success Ukraine was having against those targets.
On whether a point of exhaustion can be identified, the official was careful, telling me “I don’t think we’ll be in a position yet to say what that pivot point is,” they said, declining to predict a date by which reserves might run out while maintaining that Russia faces very difficult choices.
Officials described Russian use of North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles as significant in itself. “The fact that Russia is having to use North Korean missiles is quite significant. It says a lot about Russia’s ability to resource its own conflict,” one official said, declining to give numbers.
