Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has already begun so Britain will sanction Russia, UK Health Secretary Sajid Javid has said.
“You can conclude that the invasion of Ukraine has begun,” Javid told Sky News.
Javidals told Sky News here that Europeans were “waking up to a very dark day”, as tanks and armoured vehicles were seen overnight near Donetsk in a breakaway region of eastern Ukraine.
In an interview you can read here, he said:
“It’s clear from what we have already seen and found out today that the Russians and President Putin have decided to attack the sovereignty of Ukraine and its territorial integrity. We’ve always said that’s completely unacceptable. We’ve seen that he has recognised these breakaway eastern regions in Ukraine. And, from the reports or I think we can already tell, he has sent in tanks and troops.”
The movement of Russian troops into Ukraine comes as the Russian president officially recognised the eastern rebel-held areas of Donetsk and Luhansk on Monday evening, escalating the crisis over Ukraine.
The video below shows Russian vehicles entering the region.
Rus tankları Donetsk sınırlarında
(Reuters) pic.twitter.com/YQiiAJr0us— fırat (@firatfstk) February 22, 2022
More on this as it comes in.
Cue the usual suspects claiming it is a defensive move🙄
“Something something NATO expansion, something something Russia’s backyard.”
It’s tricky, on the one hand it is a complex situation and I don’t see any one side as being the ‘good guys’. HOWEVER, on the other side Ukraine agreed to give up its nuclear weapons in exchange of safety guarantees which Russia is currently pi**ing all over. By overtly moving troops in this manner the jig is up. I hope the sanctions hit hard.
This is a fair point, the government of Ukraine is hardly the bastion of freedom. Equally better ways of resolving the issues than invasion.
I think you are being to kind on Russia there. never mind “Ukraine is hardly the bastion of freedom.” – The point is he won’t stop there, will he. he wants the Warsw Pact countries back under Russian control..
For sure, not defending them at all, it’s clearly an illegal act. But if you look at it from their perspective there are people in these regions that clearly want to be russian and are being prevented.
“From their perspective “? That covers a multitude of sins. What has the West done? Sent a really nasty note of protest?
Not arguing it’s right, just saying as always with wars it’s never black/white good/evil.
Agreed on the point that the west has done nothing so far, and needs to do something or Russia will choose another target after Ukraine. That something however doesn’t have to involve going to war with Russia, as that is an unwinnable war, everyone would lose if we did.
Why is it an unwinnable war? And was WW2 not black/white?
It’s unwinnable because nukes would get involved.
Ww2 was only black/white with benefit of hindsight. At the start it was far more complex as all the info was not available
Why would nukes get involved? Russia believes it has sufficient conventional forces to win against the Ukrainian Army.
I mean if the US or UK get involved. Although I do wonder if Ukraine really did dispose of all their nukes, if I was them I would have kept a few in secret.
US or UK will not get involved as Ukraine is non-NATO.
The disposal of Ukraines nukes was done by an international team – you could not hide a few nukes from the team!
Steve, yes but there are people in Northern Ireland that want to be Irish. But that’s not how it works and it’s a deadly road to go down. It’s an old and easy way to get new land, a power would move a bit of its ethnic population into a county then chop off the bit with your people in it after getting an invite. Empires have always used this moving of populations. It’s both an offensive and defensive tactic. It’s what Hitler did and how he justified taking strategic areas of Europe without a fight, that then Allowed him… Read more »
For sure not defending Russias actions, as I think it’s them being a bully and acting illegally. Just saying I can see how they are justifying it locally. Understanding how someone else thinks doesn’t mean it’s how you think or agree with it.
Hi Steve, don’t worry I did not think you were supporting what’s happening, just analysing as you say. I was just summarising the Danger of the use of ethnic groups, sorry if it came over a bit critical. And you have to get into your enemies head, know yourself and you win half the battles, know yourself and know your enemy and you win all battles. Plus the best way to win a war is never fight it and the only way to do that is know how your enemy ticks. Unfortunately we did have an opportunity the 1990s to… Read more »
We can still win very easily. Putin is there because he has brought off his opponents, who in turn put their money out of his reach in the uk. Instead of sancting individuals that were already sanctioned by the US for years, go after that money. In turn his power is threatened and he will be forced to d something to protect his position.
Unfortunately our government isnt acting and I’m sure that money is being moved as we speak to a safer country.
Yes we sprang into action with those devastating sanctions.
He posioned the guy in Salisbury to make a very clear message, cross him and hiding in the UK isn’t going to be safe.
No amount of sanctions will deter Putin. We will not win easily.
It’s a matter of majorities though. You could say lots of Scottish people do not want to be in the UK, they don’t start a war to try and achieve that and nor does Ruk not allow them from time to time hold a referendum. I do know Putin oversaw poison killing in the UK so their perspective counts for nothing in my book. Like I said Russia are empire building, Ukraine are not..
Thats a giant step and would require many NATO countries to do a U-turn.
And cue the other usual “suspects” advocating NATO takes action now.
I was brought up with the lesson that the allies failure to act early on, resulted in ww2. So yes I strongly believe NATO should take action. Not by going to war but by significantly reinforcing it’s eastern border, making it clear that Russia might take Ukraine but they won’t be going any further.
This mess is only happening because Russia got away with taking Crimea without much consequences.
Actually Steve , you raise a very good point. These sanctions (not enough in my opinion) should have been applied and then some when Russia invaded The Crimea.
As much as I dislike dinosaur Putin, he is a shrewd and experienced operator. I cant see these sanctions effecting his game plan much, particularly with his economic crutch with the Chinese.
We in the UK are in a unique position to seriously harm the Russian goverment by freezing all the vast wealth of Putin’s supporters in London / wider UK. If we did that and said we would only unfreeze if he removed his troops from the border of Ukraine, over night we would see a withdraw.
It will however never happen as our government is however too in Russia’s pockets as proved by the review into russian interference into the election.
Putin is not deterred by sanctions, even those against his oligarch mates with fancy London addresses.
Don’t agree. He gave away russian resources to the oligarch to ensure he had their support to retain power. If we hit them where it hurts in their pockets, they will force Putin to act to get that money back.
Those emigre oligarchs in London will not have all their assets in a UK bank. They are not daft.
Doesn’t need to be all, rich people don’t like losing money, and there is an extremely lot in the UK, both in banks and property, many billions.
Russia has got its hands full with Ukraine – Putin may lose or be forced into a long war. He won’t be eying up anywhere else for invasion for some time, if at all.
Yes Putin and Russia are defending their rights.
And what rights should that be?
The right of the strong authoritarian leader of an aggressive power to invade whichever weaker political entity they so choose for whatever reason they so choose…..
Sorry I just could not help myself, I do like to tug the chain now and again, we all need to be a bit trollie now and again….😂😂😂
😆
Agreed as long as things never get personal
yes, the art of taking the piss about the subject, but not being personal is the key.
Andy, your name is showing your email address. I’ve red flagged to try and get the string removed to protect your identity…could others flag as well please to protect Andy.
Like Blair then ?
Sometimes democracies have to be aggressive, not saying Iraq was wrong or right ( that’s a debate of days). But even democracies need to be willing to be aggressive. The difference is if our leaders get it wrong we vote them out. So the difference between this and Blair was he got voted out due to the perceived inappropriate actions.
That nothing says it is acceptable to play the schoolyard bully with other nations
That would be the right to intimidate and invade your neighbours then!
Got it in one….the Divine right of the nut authoritarian leader of an aggressive power to do what they want to weaker nations. It’s a good Soviet belief system don’t you know.
Have you seen these two videos from Parliment yesterday where Corbyn asked questions of Wallace
and then from Caroline Lucus
Both pathetic lefties destroyed by Wallace, fair play to him and it’s time to tough talk the 5th columnists which sit on the opposition benches in Parliament and let them and others know they are talking lefty appeasement shit!
Korisne Budale. That the simple truth.
Classic
Honesty the smarter way of them doing it by dividing the county. Going further toward major cities would take another step of escalation at least but now the smaller territories are at great threat.
JohninMK, John? Where are you?
He didn’t do very well in St Catherines Hall so he had to stay behind for a chat?
Visiting a cathedral or two?
Or Wiki.
Getting instructions from his bot boss, loading up the spuds and his 2 litres of two stroke and going on leave.
Nearly right. The boss, otherwise known as Cathy, has decreed that the cloakroom needs a revamp so trips to B&Q and action with a chop saw and paint brush have taken priority. Being a bloke I find it tough to multi task. I am well stocked with 2 stroke for my chain saw.
Yaaaawn, well whatever bot chuff you were selling your wrong, and as a troll it’s time to now try to justify the action of Putin, despite you denying it will, was, going to happen! Now let’s see if you dare to criticise the head shed megalomaniac.
If I were a troll then I must be one so far down the list that the latest changes in plans never reached me. Or maybe those in charge decided that my activities here were so unimportant that they could just leave me prattling on by myself. Oooops coffee break over back to drilling.
So still no condemnation and criticism of Putin, his actions and thought process then? Nope? Sad bot!
‘ … head shed megalomaniac.’
You have way with words Airborne …
Most kind 😂👍!
^.^
Well just work faster man, can’t you see that emergency discussions on DUK are needed.
I needed a smile, thanks.
Hopefully they will stop there and not go beyond the 2 regions.
Cannot see it though, with reports units are tactically deployed forward. That cannot last.
I gave the guy some slack and always ready to give the benefit of the doubt, but will be interesting to see if he condemns this.
I don’t mind his contribution, not because I agree with him. I don’t. But he stimulates a lot of response, some of which I learn new things from.
Yes, he’s the Russian kit/Orbat man for sure.
He is certainly a SME on Russia and Russian domestic politics, to an impressive degree. But the question is how? and actually why? At least his replies when challenged are reasonable, so IMHO as trolls go he is quite reasonable.
Well he did not want to explain when I pressed on his side of the story on Salisbury and MH17 he just simply replied” I’m not taking the bait” lol.
I don’t agree with a lot of his views, but they were/are clearly well thought out and it gives me a chance to oil up the brain cells for a proper bit of debate.
Agreed mate one of the more reasonable and knowledgable trolls we have had of late, so much more efficient than the likes of TH, etc lol
The old 1984 Orwellian doublethink, the staple of authoritarian totalitarian states everywhere and everywhen.
Totally agree, and he/they are only doing their job after all and maybe the trolls are secretly being convinced by the power of the western leaning argument? 😀
I will put my 2 pence worth in Daniele, we have been celebrating this morning, even people I know who are anti Putin and pro west are happy, the last few months of western arrogance to us and not taking any talks seriously (obviously from Russian perspective) have made people tired of the west, the government and media have made special point of all press conferences and security council meetings be shown live so we can see all decisions made and reaction from west leaders. Donbass republics need to be supported, Kiev will never honour Minsk agreement, so we do… Read more »
Ulya you seem to have that strong pro Putin trait of lying to yourself and projecting for the whole of Russia for what you want us in the west to hear, when the big US sanction’s hit your manufacturing it will suffer as a lot of tech and parts still have to be traded through the west , so you will go east with China and depend on them due Russia lack of skill set in areas Computer chips, civil aviation example. As for growing stronger not sure about that, Russia’s economy has been stagnated for along time and its… Read more »
Agreed mate.
Ulya, interesting to read the perspective of a Russian. I am sure there are many of your countrymen who will be happy the same as there will be many here that will get Jingoistic and fly the flags of their respective nations… But, regardless of what you or they say… The rest of the world now lives in fear of a war… This need not be happening… Your country still greaves the losses of WW2! The US still grieves the losses of Vietnam… And many NATO nation are fully aware of recent losses in the middle east.. And here we… Read more »
Thank you for providing an insight as to how the situation is perceived in Russia. While the West should indeed try to understand (not acknowledge) the Russian motivation for these events, I believe the reverse should also apply. So let me ask you: Why is it, do you think, that most former Warsaw Pact countries, in particular the Baltic states and Poland, sought NATO membership as fast as they could? Could it be caused by decades of first-hand experience with Moscow control, and a sign in the times that Russian imperial desires have resurrected? So what is seen in Russia… Read more »
.
You in a spot of trouble SORM ? comments self deleted.
Agreed!
Don’t make the mistake of assuming Ulya speaks for all Russians, he doesn’t. (Just like Nicola Sturgeon doesn’t represent all Scotts.)
I know plenty of Russians, both in London and back in their home country, who are dismayed by Putin’s reckless megalomania.
Ulya is in his social media echo chamber.
apparently Ulya is a she…a version of Julia
I would expect more intelligence from a woman 🤷🏻♂️
Words are cheap, and actions speak far more loudly. Since 1945 there have been 4 invasions in Europe (Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Crimea and now the Ukraine). In each case the aggressor has been the USSR or, as it now calls itself, Russia. Bleat as much as you like about “western arrogance” and Kiev not complying with agreements, but the facts speak for themselves.
5 Soviet/Russian invasions, there was also Georgia.
5 Russian seizures by force of neighbours’ territory, all wholly illegal under international law – Abkhazia (Georgia), South Ossetia (Georgia), Transnistir (Moldova), Crimea (Ukraine) and now Donbas (Ukraine).
The little man in the Kremlin is even more rapacious than the little man with the mustache was in the 1930s.
Waving bits of diplomatic paper around and waffling, as the West did back then and is doing now, is meaningless. These autocrats only respect force.
Afternoon Ulya. Feel free. You know I try to see the other sides view and am sympathetic to Russia in many ways, but we shall have to disagree on this one.
I hope Russia’s Army goes no further than Luhansk, Donetsk. If the Russian army then invades wider Ukraine I’d be very interested to see your defence of the move.
Your English is the usual standard. 👍
What scared me most during the latest pandemic, and what I am seeing again here is how much a government can lie to and brainwash its population. Truly terrifying. I suppose, as so often is the case though, it’s easier to believe the lie and all the propoganda than follow the truth. I for one will not be involved in any war for the UK, propoganda/public shaming/Scape hosting or not. If everyone did the same the world would be a much better place. I like Russian people and russian culture but I strongly dislike those in charge, ironically the same… Read more »
.
And thats from the Russian perspective, which is sadly spoon fed Putin Propaganda, by a state owned communication sector. The cold war never left, correct but I disagree with your comment about the West never gave it up! In fact the West reduced defence spending to such a degree that this has emboldened your illustrous leader to a degree that he is willing to gamble with thousands of lives to test the West and show how big his p###k is!
Yes, too true. If there is to be war we need to rearm rapidly. We, Europe, are not ready. The west has lost its way and been too preoccupied with the Middle East and staring up our own navel about statues while cutting our military too far, and it went too far in 1997 let alone now.
Hi Di -it feels like 1938 all over again. Last night I watched episode1 & 2 of that brilliant BBC series, The World at war. The parallels of then and now are terrifying. Although in ’38, the UK rearmament plan was well under way.
Agree entirely Daniele, we have let our guard right down, which has emboldened the opportunistic autocrat in the Kremlin.
In the UK, the top priority now has to be to halt and reverse the defence cuts announced last year, we need to start shaping up to meet Russian aggression one more time.
Hi Daniele, From Wiki:”In October 1933, when the failure of the Disarmament Conference was evident, a Defence Requirements Sub-Committee of the Committee of Imperial Defence was appointed to examine the worst deficiencies of the armed forces”. Rearmament then commenced from 1934, which resulted in the RAF moving from wood-and-string biplanes to sleek monplanes, especially the Hurricane and Spitfire ,which enabled us to win the Bttle of britain, build of five KGV battle ships and upgrade of many others, the ordering of four Illustrious class carriers, and many modern tanks, howizers and munitions for the army. I hope we have well… Read more »
All roads lead to Constantinople and 1054…..As my grandmother used to say ‘what’s in the marrow cannot be knocked out of the bone’.
Well Ulya how exited are you going to be when you see the inevitable body bags coming home? How proud when you see Russian artillery lay waste to towns and villages killing innocents? All because Putin doesn’t like the word Ukraine!
Still each to their own but how you cannot see that this is not going to end well is beyond the normal right thinking person.
It’s possible that won’t happen. If the invasion restricts itself to the areas of Donbas that were effectively under Russian control already, my guess is there won’t be many body bags. At least not in Donbas, just as there weren’t body bags in Crimea in 2014. Deaths have mostly been in Donbas over the last eight years. The Donbas war is over. Ukraine lost. Deaths in Crimea have probably been greater due to the fresh water crisis that the take-over itself caused. The question is where next? If the cementing of Russian Crimea precipitated Donbas, will the cementing of Russian… Read more »
You been lied to by a little tinpot emperor!
It takes some courage to post this here, so well done for expressing your views Ulya. I am saddened to hear the mood of the Russian people is such. I truly believe all of you are being mislead.
I think we in the West want exactly the same for Russians as what we have. Peace , stability and the right to live and enjoy your lives.
Don’t listen to Putin , all of you deserve far better than this!
Hi Ulya, interesting cheers for that. This is why I think we are in trouble ( and by that I mean everyone ). We have leaders that really don’t know how to avoid the conflict that is coming: China and Russia are stuck now in a dialogue of the west is the enemy, and liberal democracies are aggressive and they need to have their place in the world order lessened ( I include a large percentage of the populations, most people forget Even authoritarian strong men leaders are as Much controlled by their populations wishes as by their own dialogue,… Read more »
Ulya, are you even more excited today? Russian troops are dying already. A very long and tragic war like you had in Afghanistan has started.
Mate this is something that most of us suspected, Putin will use the move into the “breakway” states as a stepping stone, in order to at least move into the rest of the region, or at most, dash for Kiev, with troops moving South from Belarus and North from Crimea. If he manages to do this in a few days, the West and NATO will shout and threat, but once he reaches Kiev, he will agree to a ceasfire, and the West will breathe a sigh of relief and we will all end up talking about the situation for the… Read more »
Well if we are talking for the next 10 years I will take it! We need that long to rearm and our political class to wake up.
Agreed mate!
Airborne wrote:
Here is what AFP is currently reporting
https://i.postimg.cc/ZRJqK4hZ/Untitled-1.jpg
unfortunately airborne, I in no way believe it will end at Kiev. At that point Ukraine is effectively a dead nation ( look at Czechoslovakian ability to defend its sovereignty after the annexation of Sudetenland). If Russia gets away with the conquest of a nation of 45 million people. Russian and China will know its likely close to the end of western dominance and a world order based international law. The next push would not be immediate ( say a few more years to get some building programmes out the way)but it would be more significant, likely by the PRC… Read more »
Certainly Russia and China will be moving forward with each others agendas in mind. There will be an element of collusion in order to achieve their respect aims, and it will be a long term project! We in the West and NATO took out eye off the ball and now we will be paying for it! It’s hard to play catch up with no money or will! Shit has just rolled down hill mate and we will be seeing some serious changes and hard choices will need to be made.
Putin will test the water with each and every step ie watch , monitor and react to the western response. He will not fear sanctions, even strong ones.
However I will be very surprised if his forces make a move on Kiev or parts of the Ukraine outside the self-declared republics.
My belief mate is that this is a final opportunity for Putin to make his name in the annals of Russkie history and he won’t be content with the eastern regions. He got Crimea unscathed, and now sees the opportunity to take at least Kiev, with a Ukrainian peace deal where they agree to outrageous demands, or the full and continued invasion of Ukrainian soil continues. Tough times ahead mate.
Biggest indicator I saw today was that the Russian Embassy in Kiev was burning documents.
Putin would be crazy to go beyond the full extent of the 2 regions. The explosions in Kiev are terror attacks to put further pressure on the Ukrainian Govt – I doubt they are the prelude to a march on Kiev.
Changing his coat? Actually, I think from close reading ‘JohninMK’ was team effort. ‘They’ assured one and all none of this was planned except in the minds of N.A.T.O. hawks and war mongers on this blog. I had to admire the deftness whereby he retreated when cornered, conceded and then returned to snipe from a different point of the compass. His friend was false equivalence; chalk does look like cheese but what of it? ‘More fool you if you cannot tell the difference’ was JohninMK’s cynical attitude.
Agreed mate.
you are correct Barry-spot on !
Well most his predictions turned out wrong ,the Russian troops leaving Belarus after the exercise for one , I enjoyed your comment’s calling him out .
Trolling is a very common effort over the last few years of the internet by states such as Russia. All part of the information and dis-information war mate as we know. But over a period of time they can be spotted and called out. At least his “team” were polite….lol
Hi AB , he must be sleeping in this morning, or to busy celebrating their “great liberation” of those oppressed by the “evil forces of the Ukraine”.
Seriously though, what a moron Putin is -like watching Hitler and Stalin in 1939 over Poland – really pathetic that an adult leader can act like this .
Sad state of a affairs Klonkie as he controls all the media and the vast majority of Russians have no clue about what is actually happening and only have the Putin version of events. The Cold War never finished mate it was just a hiccup while the criminal megalomaniac in Russia repositioned himself! And the West stupidly thought they had a peace dividend, reduced defences and defence spending and posture, to a degree in which Putin can gamble on them West being to weak and disjointed to respond.
Too true Ab, shades of 1938 all over again! stay safe
Respect mate
Could not the UK Gov. use OneWeb sats to transmit BBC or Sky direct to Russian homes?
I mean to convert a signal from a constellation of sats to a terrestrial signal without a need of infrastructure on the ground in Russia. Maybe the same method use to jam state channels?
These eastern regions and Crimea have been under de facto Russian control for some time now, so, bad as this is, it is not the invasion of the bulk territory still under Ukranian control. Putin has used the pretext of ‘saving’ the lives of the ethnic Russians therein. No such excuse exists for the rest of Ukraine. If he does move on the rest of the country then that is the serious war we have all been dreading. There has to be some lines in the sand drawn if that does happen and Russia must be made to pay dearly… Read more »
Make no mistake Putin wants all of Ukraine, what he will do depends on what West will allow.
Putin has unleashed the dogs of war, the only question now is where will he stop? We should not be surprised by his actions as he’s been making threats on NATO expansion for years. Putin has the luxury of time due to him being president for as long as he wishes, so he’s playing the long game, unlike the democratic world. I knew he’d go into Ukraine once the main Winter Olympics had finished, (at China’s request) and now the UK must make the best of what it has. If only the Army had the new equipment as promised, however,… Read more »
Putin may stop at the two breakaway areas, with the rest of his forces around the Ukraine being used to intimidate the Ukraine into not reacting. Or his forces may seek to extend the size of the two rebel areas to include the full territory of their namesake oblasts. That would incur fighting the Ukraine military. The areas currently represent around 40% of the oblasts but include most of the major cities, which means over 50% of the populations. He may then decide to take the whole of the south east, which votes for Russophile political parties. That would give… Read more »
Well Putin declaration was clear that he considers Ukraine a illegitimate country.
Yes, which doesn’t auger well.
But he’s also totally unpredictable In his behaviour, and what he says and what he believes are often different. His KGB background makes him a great proponent of deception. I wouldn’t be surprised if there are plans for all the scenarios I mentioned.
The west will probably breathe a sigh of relief at anything less than the whole of the Ukraine.
Very interesting observation Sean. Yes, death by a thousand cuts but whichever way you look at it it’s death for Ukraine as we know it today. I feel sure that many in the Russian Government are not on the same page as Putin, and some may be pondering which way to go? Punishing sanctions will hit the economy very hard indeed and that could be one way to eventually remove Putin from office? In truth, the only hope for a peaceful outcome may have to come from within. The big question has to be how politically strong is Putin and… Read more »
Given Putin’s age, succession will be on the minds of others in the Kremlin. The question is whether there is a possibility of a coup against him if the Russian army suffers large or at least continuous losses. Even then, we may just see another hardliner rather than the democracy the Russia needs.
An overreach would set the Russian army back years, they would need to rebuild from losses of people and equipment; but could buy time for NATO countries to make structural changes and invest in their armed forces, strengthening the alliance militarily. But Jesus the cost the Ukrainian people. I think Putin will try and link Crimea to Donbas, cutting Ukraine from the Azov sea and then stop. He would have grabbed land, linked up with Crimea, have troops in Belarus, effectively making that country and client state and increased gas prices.
Yes I think now that Putin has his forces officially in the rebel areas, he’ll use the pretext of ‘attacks’ on them by the Ukrainians to push out and take the whole of the south east. That gives him • a predominately pro-Russian population, so less insurgency • secure water supply for Crimea • the Sea of Azov, the greatest fish resource on the planet • the resources of the Donbas Basin • a disproportionately large part of Ukraine’s industrial base and population • an achievable objective for his military and one they can hold. Finally it nixes NATO membership,… Read more »
I Agree, but I think he will make a decapitation move on Kiev claim the key areas of resources and industrial base, then leave the rest to wither on the vine and pick it later at his leisure.
If he’s only for the Donbas, South East, or the left bank of the Dneiper, he might appear to threaten Kiev anyway in order to tie down a large portion of the Ukrainian military to defend it. Given its short distance from Belarus, he doesn’t even have to cross the border with a feint, just sit there.
But if he takes the South East and Kiev, all that really remains is the rich agricultural land of the west.
Hi Steve, Ukraine has had approx four months since the beginning of Russia’s deployment for “exercises” how much do you think they have been able to prepare? Would they be able to increase their armed forces proper (we know they have increased the size of the defense battalions)by a modest amount?
I agree. Excellent analysis. My deep sympathy to the Ukrainians but beyond Ukraine a number of states will have seen, learned and inwardly digested what Putin is doing. The result will be very geographically broad and long lasting. From North Cape to the Bosphorus any number of countries will have to come together and form a genuine military alliance based on self interest in ways we might only have dreamed of until recently. Our own d*mned government elites might wake up!
There are only 4 oblasts out of 24 that have a majority of Russian soeakers – 2 in Crimea plus Donets and Luhansk. In the latter two, the Russian speakers outnumber the Ukrainians, but not by that much.
And of course the Russian speakers are Ukrainians, they don’t all want to be part of Putin’s autocratic Russia.
If Russian troops advance beyond the separatist area, they will be up against an increasingly hostile population. It would be a bold general or political leader who thought Ukraine could be occupied indefinitely .
I suggest rather than worrying about who speaks what language you instead look at the results of elections in Ukraine, where the winning parties in the South East of Ukraine are Russophile in their stance rather than western orientated.
Yes Putin is going to encounter opposition, heck we have an anti-British fifth column living here. The question is whether it can be contained. I expect if Putin intends to reestablish Novorossiya in Southern Ukraine then he will be able to do so.
I think attempting the whole of Ukraine would be too much and ultimately lead to his regime’s undoing.
I agree with your core analysis of Putin’s strategy, however this cannot be thwarted by warfare unless one loses a sense of all proportion. Even if Putin invades the human costs would be very great and how long for? Ukraine is destined to be free unless Putin is planning to spend a vast amount of his national resources holding down a sullen population – forever! It is a senseless policy but I believe Putin is a man driven by a sinister and damaged psychology. No reason to join him by feeding that.
PRC showing the way to do that in Tibet, HK, Uyghurs & numerous unseen areas of China. Burmese army doing it since independance, supported by PRC. Reliance on modern IT makes surveillance & control far easier for despots.
This is only coming ever closer ther more conflicts we say are not our problem. Dictators aren’t much troubled by human cost.
What Putin fails to understand is the rapid changes that have taken place since the Soviet Union days. Communication has shrunk the World and applying last century military pressures will backfire on a modern Russia. Both the Russian and Ukrainian populations don’t want old-style oppression, and if imposed against the people’s will, then Putin will be eventually toppled. Any actions that are deemed as genocide will be answerable in the international courts, regardless of how many years that might take. The whole concept of occupation of a free state is just an attempt to wind back the clock of history,… Read more »
Putin doesn’t want all of the Ukraine any more than he wants all of Georgia. It would just be another headache to administer. However he doesn’t want an independent Ukraine capable of challenging him. He can achieve that through division and destruction more easily than control and administration.
He may keep forces in Donbas, even up to the Dneiper, and I can see him taking control of the Odessa coast, but anything further will be temporary.
Ukraine has massive natural and agricultural resources, massive steel naming capacity and significant aero engineering capabilities I suspect he will eventually want it all…plus the buffer it provides.
Ukraine has massive natural, mineral and agricultural resources, massive steel making capacity and significant aero engineering capabilities I suspect he will eventually want it all…plus the buffer it provides.
Like Hitler and the Sudetenland.
Absolutely. One big difference as I see it: after the Sudetenland the UK started looking seriously to its defences. Our government now is still driving defence cuts.
I can’t see that being the case now. We and the rest of Europe surely must start increasing our defence spending in response to Russia’s aggression today.
Certainly should be the case, but I won’t hold my breath: the invasion of the Crimea should have been a wake up call, but since then our military have continued to shrink….
That’s been the problem. Even with £4 billion a year extra it’s shrunk as it’s all gone on jam tomorrow.
With Putin’s escapades I think we should increase by another £6 billion to make it an even £50 billion per year defence budget, focus on expanding in size to at least reverse the cuts in capability since 2010.
Trouble is Steve, even if the west was to wake up and realise it’s an endangered species and moved defence spending to and average 4% Now it would take years to rearm. If fear the west will not awaken until the move after this one, which may be by China, Russia or both.
Sadly that’s likely very true.
I could see us and the US starting to rearm, maybe even France. It will take a lot for Germany to start rearming, however.
The German military only really exists to sustain their defence industry.
Hi David, sadly it was not so much after Sudetenland as after Hitler then ignored the treaty and took the rest of Czechoslovakian as well.
It is still the Ukraine.
Internationally recognised as the Ukraine.
Hitler used the same ”excuse” and look what happened…
Now that NATO is looking at Europe, what will the Red Emperor do in the Far East??
Worrying times Darren
That is probably the ultimate question which may hold the fate of the world as we know it.
Unless we stand up & draw a line it will be another region annexed or another nation. Salami slicing Ukraine must stop. Sanctions ultimately rarely succeed but make these sort try to grab what they think they need. Sanctions against Imperial Japan led to Pearl Harbour & the Invasion of SE Asia. We need to move to a war footing, foolishly having done an awful lot to make ourselves weak & unprepared for war.
When have we ever been ready for war?
Not before WW2 or WW1… Nor before the Napoleonic’s, Nor before Korea…. Nor Iraq or Afghan….
We seem to make a habit of not being ready…
But I agree with you.
Now is a time for governments to come together as a coherent force and say stop…
One can hope………………….
Simply and very unfortunately true. What’s even more unfortunate is I think we have forgotten or given up on how to defend our national interest as has the rest of the west.
I fear it’s worse than that I think we are possibly looking at the beginning of a strategic alliance between China and Russia. So I expect more and more to happen on the geopolitical stage with the west being backed into a corner.
To be honest Jonathan, as I see it, that is the reality. China will see this as a time to act, whilst the US is watching Russia… Xi does not care about NATO, he does not care that a little fleet sailed from the UK a few months ago, all he cares about it the growing resentment to communist rule in China… and how best to unite his people behind the Red flag!!! Like many tyrants before him, he will act externally, to unite internally. Taiwan, South Korea and Japan, 3 powerhouse economies are in line. Because if China acts,… Read more »
De facto is not the same as legal. Remember the Falkland Island invasion? I am appalled by the semi-educated responses to Putin’s strategy of exhuming the old U.S.S.R., itself founded on a Tsarist expansion of the 19th century. If these countries (‘never really a state’ or otherwise) wish to join or re-join the Russian Federation what is to stop them? This is not Putin’s way at all. False equivalents are being bandied about very freely. Carried through on to the international stage these notions of what constitutes valid relations between nations and peoples would be catastrophic. We already have a… Read more »
Good commentary Barry, Putin is the embodiment of Stalin. Neurotic and insecure, surrounded by individuals of a similar like who are living in the past . Dangerous old dinosaurs , psychotics bullys all of them.
Putin cut a pathetic figure in his televised (pre-recorded) Security Council Meeting. It was pretty obvious none of his henchmen genuinely supported him.
I suspect that if we apply punitive economic sanctions now he will have a sudden heart attack and ‘retire’ as a hero of the Russian republic to be replaced by someone else more flexible.
It was a strange bit of Kremlin theatre. Almost the Nuremberg antidote proving they were all being bullied by their leader to do something they didn’t want to do. I can’t really understand the value in showing it. The video just revealed Putin as isolated with very poor social interaction with his ‘team’. Miscalculation. Putin thinks he is a genius as he has made all the perfect calls, in his eyes, for years. Small Austrian Bloke with a moustache had a similar run of luck in the ‘30s and early ‘40s until he was stopped. For once Doris @ No… Read more »
Tinker tailor soldier spy quote ” Hes in the end a fanatic there lies his weakness”. Goes something like that.
Exactly
I think there’s no doubt that waging war with dollar (or lack of) will be more effective than sending a pathetic handful of tanks abroad. War has always been expensive. Unfortunately the Germans and so on have a serious energy problem (or lack of in an unfortunate circumstance) but this works two ways with a lack of income from a refusal to buy gas (unlikely I suppose) or it being cut off.
AA
Paul I know this is a day late after you posted the above post , watching Vlad I thought maybe just maybe that the Vlad being shown on TV is infact a doobleganer Dictators always have a double for reasons of their own safety and ego just a thought Paul
It’s the first time I’ve heard a politician say it the other day, the words of Boris Johnson, something to the effect “the sooner we wean ourselves off Russian fossil fuels the better”. Something I’ve been thinking for a long time. We’re handing the money to them, as we have been for the past umpteen years, to help them re-arm and stick two fingers up at us. Same goes for China, although with them the tentacles have spread more deeply into every fabric of our daily life, it will take much longer to do. I’m not suggesting we completely isolate… Read more »
Less than 5% of the gas the UK uses comes from Russia. Germany has bent over the barrel, giving Russia major leverage over it.
Not to mention their bizarre knee jerk in closing their Nuclear plants down because of the Japanese disaster, inexplicably forgetting that Japan is on a major fault line while Germany has a rock solid foundation free of Volcanoes,earthquakes,Tsunamis etc etc etc.. Quite the most extraordinary decision from the Germans.
Yep absolutely ridiculous I couldnt/can’t believe it tbh- almost as bad as Cameron sticking greater tax hikes on our Coal Power station than the agreed EU acord to show he was greener than they. Although back to the Germans ironically for a major manufacturer they have always struck me as a ‘green influenced’ nation- Prob something in their psyche making atonements for past indescretions …or something like that.
If you think about it that ‘green approach’ has helped to create this situation – there is a ‘law’ regards unforseen circumstances from seemingly unrelated events.
I believe we have further resource of gas in the North Sea that we have chosen not to exploit due to the green leaning policy, maybe we should now
maximize gas extraction in the UK. Even if we don’t consume it in the UK, sell the gas to Europe. Energy security is another leaver we can pull to counteract Russia.
Less than 3% according to Boris this morning.
Germany have just cancelled NS2.
..where i can speak freely..” Cherish that DP
I made the decision a couple of years ago I would no longer buy from China wherever possible.
Is not easy to avoid Chinese made stuff unfortunately, I stopped buying direct from Chinese websites even though it means finding the equivalent product elsewhere is more expensive.
Tiny effort that makes no difference I know, at least I’m doing something though. Better than nothing.
I’d be happy to see China isolated. The only reason they have become a threat is because the rest of the more civilised world have stupidly thrown money at them like confetti.
Avoid buying from Amazon is a start, a lot of the junk on their cones direct from Chinese manufacturers.
Yep me too …I wont give Jeff any of my money…its harder not to give the Chinese it …but Jeff can bugger off (am I allowed to say that on here ?)
Reshore the higher value items production back to Britain. Get the cheaper stuff from Indian factories.
Well China focus in doing stuff. West focus in redistribution (another world for socialism).
The result is obvious.
No idea, the manufacturer of the phone wasn’t stated when I got it. Like I said if you were capable of reading, I try to avoid when I can but know its impossible to always achieve.
Yes I do the same, but we purchased a British built oven, only to be told it had been delayed due to a supply delay for key parts that came from….you guessed it China…FFS. The problem is almost all western Production is dependent on Chinese supply of either parts or raw materials. The west has almost lost a war it did not even realise it was fighting, well actually our leaders were so full of the end of history, the west has won and neoliberal the market always wins bollox they didn’t notice China had dusted of the British imperial… Read more »
Very true. Blinded by their own greed. Chickens all coming home to roost now though.
None of us ever asked for our manufacturing to be given away to China. That was the decision of buisiness leaders, any more than anyone asked for all the more sustainable packaging to be replaced by plastic or most the fats & oils used in foods replaced with palm oil.
We’ve certainly funded the PRC’s rise to become the clear existencial threat to free democracies & reduced our forces so Putin & Xi feel safe enough to try it on in Ukraine/Taiwan for starters.
There’s either a very costly adjustment to de-risk from relience on China, appeasing until we too are over taken by Russia/PRC or become a puppet satellite, or we take them on direct or try regime change on them. I can’t see any way ahead that won’t cost greatly. We’ve been a manufacturing economy before & it’s in no way impossible to rebuild that.
I agree that we in the UK dont have the resources (people) that China has and so therefore with manufacturing its now difficult and costly to start to bring it back in house. As for the rest I disagree- This could and should be addressed following COVID -but it wont be. Western economics is built on how cheap people can buy ‘stuff’& theres too much money ‘invested’ in Chinese Manufacturing by those that make these sorts of decisions for them to about face- oh btw the way Ive ‘sat behind a computer screen ‘ for 30 years and have put… Read more »
Googlemaps says its 10hrs 12 minutes drive from Donetsk to Kyiv at the moment, avoiding road closures.
I’ll bet the Germans and EU do absolutely sod all …. If they don’t persue strong sanctions against Putin immediately, then they prove themselves as totally unreliable partners.
We will see, the Germans might surprise us …. I doubt it though.
Echos of Sudetenland. The Germans are probably terrified by ghosts.
The Russians are far worse Paul. Ghosts still live amongst them and they are exercising them. The revolution , 1941, the cold war – and on it goes.
Yes, I think that’s the problem; an inability or unwillingness to ‘move on’.
There comes a time time when you have to let things go….
What sanctions ? That’s the biggest question.
They are totally useless and since 2014 have only strengthened Russia…
Morning Hermes, Previous sanctions have been carefully calculated to look like the West was ‘doing something’, without damaging our own economies. It’s proven to be a mammoth failure of Western resolve. Georgia, Crimea, chemical attacks in the UK and now they put up two fingers and move into Ukraine… Now, the West has too move ‘as one’ to surgically cut the Russians off at the knees financially. All Russian Companies and wealthy individuals need to be fully reviewed and monitored and severely restricted as required. If we don’t robustly act now, who’s next I wonder?? Turn the money taps off… Read more »
“Now, the West has too move ‘as one’” That’s the problem, we all loves to dream, but they end as we wake up. “If we don’t robustly act now, who’s next I wonder??” I agree but… Its too late, 8 years too late. The russian economy is developped enough to not care about the sanctions now. If we want to hit hard, we must accept to blow ourself. And the population in occident have already enough problems to not add more problems for Ukraine. 90 if not 95% of the population dont understand or dont care about what happens with… Read more »
I guess that’s the problem Hermes, the US and UK have led the way on this with robust action and military aid, Macron and Scholz have, I’m afraid, come over as rather weak and dithering. Its time for the EU to demonstrate it has a backbone and do something…. The EU has it within its power to bring hard hitting sanctions down on Russia and its only combined and unified action that will have any effect. I don’t agree regarding the Russian economy, its the size of Belgium’s and its been further eroded by Covid 19. Its ‘far’ from robust… Read more »
Im not so sure 90-95% is an accurate figure – but yes I damn well hope it wont remain a high % . This has been coming since 2014, and the ramifications for EU /UK are massive.
As for sanctions the Torys have banged their gums about Russian money in London for years and done…absolutely nothing…As you sow so shall you reap- hypocrisy personified.
Same as China there wont be any shift in sino-west relations as theres too much money involed…until they take Tiawan then we will all be shaking out heads and tut tutting -again.
I agree Hermes, but it’s not just Russia, it’s also China. I honestly think the world is now moving back from the stability of Unipolarity to a very unstable bipolarity. The Cold War was a surprising stable bipolar state ( do to the trauma of the Second World War and the risk nuclear weapons induced, as well as all nations being armed to the teeth. The new bipolarity is really worrying as is in a very unsettled state with the new power block pushing the limits and still expanding, with the old Unipolar power looking increasingly stale and not investing… Read more »
Same thing for China… I remember talking about it 15y ago while playing some RTS when I wasn’t even an adult, we already known at this time what is going on in China. Why the governments doesn’t do anything to stop our industries to go in China ? (At the cost of their own brevet!) We can do nothing today against China, except look at her being the most powerful country and with a power far superior to the US with a lot less respect… “do to the trauma of the Second World War and the risk nuclear weapons induced,… Read more »
TBF to Scholz, he has just announced suspension of Nordstream 2, which had been piloted through by Gerhard Schroder, who I think is the former leader of his party.
Now need to watch for a German pivot away from Russian gas. And whether they also turn off Nordstream 1.
Time for us to start exporting elec from offshore wind. 😎
(May have my Sh and Sch in a twist there)
Germany has halted the gas pipeline, it is not getting approval. The EU has come out with a far stronger package of sanctions than we have. Rather than Europe being the weak link, it is the UK that is at the tail end of things, with a pretty pathetic response that went down like a lead balloon in Parliament yesterday. Johnson and Truss will have to scramble to toughen up our sanctions, but they are so obviously beholden to Russian money in the City and donations to the Tory party that they are reluctant to act against Putin’s chums here.… Read more »
Just remind me Cripes, the the UK’s ‘pathetic response’, how many anti tank weapon systems have we donated to Ukraine and how many from Germany????
Doesn’t Germany’s constitution forbid export of offensive weapons
to conflict zones? In that case, your question is a non sequitur surely?
Lots of NATO and EU countries have donated military kit to Ukraine, we are not alone.
Well, it’s not ‘yet’ a War Zone Cripes, so…. Germany has halted the Nord 2 gas pipeline, well that’s the very least they could do and the EU have spent years attempting to appease Putin.. The US and the UK have provided 90% of the military aid provided and been forthright with Russia from the get go… Ask the Ukrainians who has provided most of the support? Enough with the Tory bashing…. Party gate has become the go to cause for every Labour / Remoaner going, nothing to do with Boris, just a convenient chink in the Armour to work… Read more »
I said conflict zone, not war zone. Donbas is a conflict zone , so Germany’s constitutional rules apply. Where are you getting your 90% figure from? i can’t see any breakdown of who has supplied what to Ukraine, either by volume or value. You seem to seize every opportunity to bash the Europeans and EU while bigging-up the UK. You prophesied that Germany would do nothing on Nord Stream 2, when they were first out of the traps yesterday to block it, you damn it with faint praise, ‘it’s the least they could do.’ Is churlish the right word? The… Read more »
“You seem to seize every opportunity to bash the Europeans and EU while bigging-up the UK”. Yes I do, quite frankly they deserve it, most of the time…. They (the EU) have taken every opportunity to put the boot into us since the referendum, it’s called patriotism, something of a dirty word among certain elements. Cripes, you seem to be of the commonly shared opinion that the UK is stuck in some sort of dreary lefty Alan Bleasdale play, trailing behind the EU …. Nope, those shackles are now cut, we lead and others follow. You might want to look… Read more »
That`s not by tank though is it ?
It was avoiding road closures and traffic congestion 😂
I’m in Russia right now. What now? The time has passed for diplomacy. I have to and froed on the Ukraine question, but my feelings of late had been that it would have been better to have left Ukraine as part of the Russian sphere of influence. But things have changed now, and it’s time to put some backbone into action. Either defend Ukraine or don’t. Sanctions are all very well, but they will not really affect the men at the top as they have lots of assets under their control, and these men will be dead, gone and history… Read more »
Perhaps Ukraine should be admitted into NATO with immediate effect? Sanctions and more sanctions, unless they are immediately crippling are not really a deterrent. Let’s be honest the West is sitting back, willing to let Ukraine fall and have virtually said that by moving embassy staff out etc…..yes, we’ve supplied a few planes worth of weapons, but its not enough. This incursion was fully expected, bit of a win for Putin with no casualties, anything more will result in a great deal of bloodshed which I still don’t think he wants.
Admission into NATO is by consensus.
Germany? France?
And the process criteria would need tweaking, unless we wanted an instant war over Crimea which is part of Ukraine sovereign territory..
Germany wants zero involvement in any hot war so would immediately reject Ukraine as a member in this circumstance.
It would be a powerful stance to announce that, should Ukraine be invaded by Russia, it will immediately be offered NATO membership. The membership criteria could be tweaked easily enough. Stoltenberg has explained that Clause 5 would only apply to those areas under Ukrainian government control so not Donbad. NATO members would need to be prepared to take action if necessary. The stationing of NATO troops and combat air on Ukraine’s Western border would certainly present Putin with a whole new challenge. Would he really be willing to take on NATO forces as well as the Ukrainian army – the… Read more »
NATO membership is not offered to countries in conflict or war.
You don’t need to be in NATO to be defended by NATO or the West…….Bosnia and kuwait both got solid support….difference being confidence in outcome was pretty high in both cases.
FYI Ukraine cannot be accepted into Nato. To be elligible for Nato membership you must not have ongoing territorial disputes. De facto Ukraine cannot join Nato since Crimea annexation.
The USA & UK are guarantors of Ukrainian territorial integrety under the treaty where Ukraine gave up her nukes.(So was Russia…) so we have an obligation apart from our NATO situation. That might be a means of providing kinetic support(air support, troops etc) rather than wringing our hands saying it’s not a NATO country.
If he has any, Vladimir’s friends need to take him on one side and tell him the truth: that the idea in life if you have lost in love is not to become a scoundrel and a bully; “come and lie down, lad; life doesn’t have to be this hard.“
In return he’d offer them a cup of tea ! 😟
Sadly probably not, he’s too far gone. As my grandmother used to say, ‘blood is thicker than water’. Putin and most of the Russian people cannot parse the components of Russian culture. Mind you, people in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones: Megan had to ‘convert’ from catholicism to Anglicanism to get married to Harry. WTF was all that about; becoming ‘English’? It’s a mindset. The US is the exemplar of a nation formed from scratch from a hotch potch of immigrants; Puritans, Spanish missionaries, African slaves, French traders, Amish pony traps, San Francisco China town. In Russian culture and psyche… Read more »
I see a RAF Rivet Joint has just departed Waddington. Eastbound…
Well, who didn’t see that coming?!
Now is the time for the UK, EU and US etc to engage full sanctions against Russia e.g. what we do to North Korea.
The EU won’t go for it of course; they’re totally dependent on Russian gas.
ETA, pretty sure this is the start of a new Cold War. Us and the rest of Europe better pull fingers out and start investing more in defence.
Coincidence that Putin makes this announcement and manoeuvre the day after the winter Olympics finishes in China so not spoiling Xi’s spectacle? I think not.
And it nicely coincides with tomorrow, which is a patriotic holiday in Russia.. to celebrate the Russian military.
Really? They are ordinary people, paid peanuts, have families etc
That is a horrid thing to say.
Yes, agreed. Always worth remembering these are mostly young conscripts who have no choice and didn’t ask to be there. There are (the usual) exceptions to the draft including people who pay for their children to dodge it but I can imagine boys turning up at the enlistment office with their mothers, shouting and screaming about how their sons should be exempt. But its a quota filling exercise and recruitment officers have to compensate at the expense of the rest. Bad enough to get drafted to military service in peacetime; but in a time of war… and potentially against what… Read more »
Aside from the ridiculous comment from Marked.
The shake up that has happened in the Russian armed forces over the last few years has seen conscripts being put into non-combatant roles, like logistics. Most front line combat units are manned with volunteer forces now. Doesn’t mean they want to be in this situation but it does mean that they wanted to be in the armed forces. Much like a lot of our young men and women do.
If there are conscripts involved with no choice in the matter I agree.
Very strange that the ‘Stop the War ‘ alliance aren’t outside the Russian embassy protesting. Anyone heard from them the past few weeks?? Thought not..
There was a “rally” by internet about a fortnight ago, addressed by those listed in the cutnpaste below. Chaired by Chris Nineham, who is a former SWP dinosaur going back decades. He is only 60. The collection of people is really STWC going back to its extreme left roots. I wonder if they are going to finally throw themselves back out of the mainstream into the place of gnashing and grinding of teeth. If you follow through to the vid it is about an hour, and the most interesting speaker is Nina Potarska, who’s politics I do not know, but… Read more »
I would not watch that poison if you paid me.
Know your enemy … 😎
I do. 5th columnists the lot of them.
Very interesting Matt thanks. Russian shills every one of them, self loathing and credulous to every bit of Kremlin propaganda fed to them by their Russian bots. All those groups you listed and more are financed by Russian money, unfortunately so are mainstream political parties and groups throughout the west.
what a load of bollocks!
Oh. Data.
The rally had 400 viewers, and has had 3700 viewers since.
Group of 5th columnists who have no clue about war, oppression and reality! The list of names makes me bring over the sick bucket!
The useful idiots are probably waiting for Putin to feed them the line they are to take…..
Stop the War are a Socialist Workers Party front. They only protest America’s or Israel’s wars. No one else.
And most are members of the World Peace Council another Soviet era formed collective whos sole purpose is too stop U S imperialism, and promote World Socialism on Russias terms .And its still bloody going Barry
Their all back at Comrade Corbyns people’s Republic of Islington
Yes Prime Minister went over this. He is using ‘salami tactics’, Crimea in 2014, the Donetsk region this year. He won’t stop here, but we may have a few years respite if the recent trend is anything to go by.
We may see another Putin-backed independance movement in Budjak (Ukranian Bessarabia) next. There was an abortive attempt in 2014 after Crimea. If Ukraine is made incapable of defending its ownership, I can see than resurging.
Morning all
Without getting too political, I think Boris has handled this situation as well as he could have.
It’ll be down to a united response, any division would be music to Putins ears.
I think the UK and US will take a very hard line on this along with Australia which was an unexpected hard line voice this morning to read. If others such as Japan, South Korea etc join in then we will know who is standing on which side.
The EU will blunder about and not take the required action, again distancing themselves from the US and the UK.
Johnson has actually inherited this situation. Many could see what Putin was all about before Johnson was elected. I think Putin’s latest moves have been encouraged by what he perceives to be a weak U.S. President. My hope is this re-invasion galvanises the west.
I do wonder what the EU response to the EU funded Russian invasion of Ukraine will be. I imagine the imposition of swift hard hitting sanctions, I have no doubt the Russian economy will be smashed with 50, or maybe even 60 Euros worth financial penalties….Germany will probably wait, 7 – 10 days before upping its gas order by 500 million Euros – that will certainly teach them. And Bojo the Clown? He put one son of a Putin crony into the house of Lords subsequent to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and increasing propgation of disorder in Ukraine and beyond….so… Read more »
Do you know what, I can’t think how it could have been worse if Corbyn got in. His government would have been paralysed, because he would never have got a majority of Labour MPs to go along with 90% of his nonsense. And since that election we now essentially have BoJos wife calling the shots – and her ideas seem to be equally as crazy as anything Islington Labour could have come up with – and the actual bloke in charge, who on earth knows what debts he owes in Moscow after all those tennis matches and the amount of… Read more »
That you make such ridiculous comments about his wife just shows how much your dislike of him has unbalanced your judgement and ability to think logically.
My judgement of a man who has parties in No.10 while the rest of the country is in lockdown, some people missing their last chances to see loved ones, or indeed missing funerals – while the people charged with running this country don’t seem to be able to pass a day without shoving booze down their neck. Thinking ‘logically’, as you seem to be such enthusiast of, do you think people running a country should do so with alcohol flowing through their veins, or do you think running a country might just be a slightly more serious endeavour than being… Read more »
Ease up on the poor lad he’s trying very very trying.
And I’d suggest you stop just reading the comments section of the Daily Express for your ideas on politics. ‘National overdraft’ that’s a thing that knowledgable political commentators talk about is it? It’s funny that never seems to get mentioned on Spitting Image…..that could be because it is written by people who know that countries don’t have bank accounts, so that startling piece of ignorance would kind of destroy any humour – the humour in such a discussion would in fact be found in laughing at the people (such as you) who think a country’s finances are akin to personal… Read more »
Wow that resulted in personal insults rather quickly, poor sign of intellect I am afraid.
In keeping with the Spitting image insult (which you clearly watch) id have assumed overdraft was more in keeping with the way you think.
O.k will rephrase it, Corbyn and his esteemed brigade of financial experts aka Diane Abbott would have found a way of maxing out the bank the bank of Englands W&M facility, more commonly known as an ‘overdraft’.
Not only do you know NOTHING about finance – chronology seems to escape you too.
You say I resorted to personal insults…and then in the next sentence you admit you insulted me first. I would not say that calls into question your intellect, I would actually suggest that points to some kind of neurological disorder.
And there is no backing out of it at all, you clearly don’t know how government finances work – the W&M is pocket change; and that is not what you meant, that is just the first result you found on google.
Let’s get things quite clear James – you insulted me first and then you accused me of dragging the conversation down by slinging insults. i.e you quite obviously can’t sequence events in time. (Do you know even chimpanzees and dolphins can do that?)
And you talked about ‘maxing out’ an overdraft – which has no concept in a country with its own currency.
James, we established some of what you don’t know….as for what you do know, I am sorry I don’t have the spare decades that would be required to find even number one on that list.
Well you really are a joy to have a chat with!
Enjoy the future episodes of spitting image as much as I will.
Now to pay for my annual subscription to the Express, if only I could complete the application form for a current account with the bank in order to pay them.
We can’t comment on deflective conjecture.
Ah fall into the whataboutism brigade then.
OT: Reading around, I was surprised at the comprehensive membership coverage of Northern Europe of the Joint Expeditionary Force.
All the relevant countries including Finland and Sweden.
The only extra useful members I can think of is perhaps Poland.
Useful structure?
Let’s pray for some really bad weather in just the right locations to clog up all the Russian military and put them in a quagmire. Hope the Ukrainian people and forces can weather all this goings on and with Western backing that Putin can be “check-mated”!
An early spring would probably halt any next offensive, though air mobility is far better than on the WW2 Eastern front.
I’d imagine an improved sealed road network vs 1941 will assist any Russian advance (mores the pity)!
If the weapons function and deter further conflict that would be a good outcome
Meanwhile Hms Diamond https://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/defence/hms-diamond-suffers-defect-before-planned-voyage-3580211
Another black eye…
Let’s hope they don’t forget the T45s harpoon’s, they might need them! And a couple of Wildcats, loaded. Might need those too.
Mehhh…Ships I served on sailed late for weather and defects from pompie and Guz for urgent ops. Not a massive issue. Getting out of Pompie and even more so Guz in roughers is a little iffy not just for the unit itself but also all the tugs and the MOD Plod escort craft. If you cannot sail you take the opportunity to get all the minor defects fixed . As she will now be top of the priority list for stores and support everyone will be ordering everything they can especially items that have a long lead time. These will… Read more »
The only thing we learn from history is we learn nothing from history
How chilling those words might be.
Started? I was under the impression that bridge was crossed when Russia annexed Crimea.
Leave them to it, bored with defending Europe, never ends well and they were so thankful. maybe the Euro Army can pump up the tyres on its bike and help. and much like some of the country wants to be Russian.
I hope you’ll recieve the hoard of Ukrainian refugees generously & humanely then when Putin pushed further.
Yeah we should never had saved Europe from Napoleon, the Kaiser, or Adolf Hitler. After all they had absolutely no ill-will or ambitions towards the U.K…
(Note; read with hefty dollop of sarcasm)
Well said Sean
Spot on Sean.
Some interesting statistics for those who are interested.
We can find the money and now is the time to do so!
https://www.ukpublicspending.co.uk/uk_defence_spending_30.html
This probably won’t be a popular opinion on here but if we are going to borrow more money I’d prefer it was in energy, health and education. We need energy security, the NHS is in dire straights and will take years to catch up, and we need to invest in young people – future scientists/engineers etc. Defence would be down the list for me, however much I’d like to see an uplift in “lethality” and a general increase in numbers across all 3 services. Any increase in defence spending should concentrate on building up key industries, including cyber. I’d definitely… Read more »
“ NHS is in dire straights ”
I believe in healthcare free at point of delivery but I do t believe in the NHS as it is.
When cancer care has its own vertical and management it was making huge strides forward.
NHS central wanted those budgets so it could ‘spend them better’ so cancer care was rolled in and now fights for its place controlled by NHS orthodoxy and group think.
Part of the problem is that the NHS is so big there is no laser focus on the functional issues.
Agreed mate, NHS fantastic organisation, professional and committed people, however not fit for purpose in the 21st century, but will never change as to much of a hot potato for any political party to try!
Lynx 120 mechanised fire support vehicle
“Rheinmetall announced the unveiling of the Lynx 120 mechanised fire support vehicle in a press release on 18 February. The company said the vehicle uses a Lynx KF41 chassis and a scaleable large-calibre turret concept.
The Lynx 120 has off-the-shelf components and its vehicle architecture has been simplified while complying with NATO standards, according to Rheinmetall.”
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/land-forces/latest/rheinmetall-presents-lynx-120-mechanised-fire-support-vehicle
That looks rather like our cancelled 120mm Ajax fire support variant.
Hi Nigel, are there any plans to have these type of FSVs in the Army? Daniele mentions below that an Ajax variant was cancelled, why would they do this with our low numbers of MBTs and Warrior not being exactly heavily armed? Interesting that RM is producing this, basically a light tank, they must see some need for it.
“why would they do this with our low numbers of MBTs”
Money.
An even bigger farce was the plan for 2 of the 4 planned Ajax Regiments in Strike Brigades to be “Medium Armour” that is in the fire support role masquerading as tanks, while other other 2 carried out the recc role.
In the same vehicle with the same gun.
The 120mm would have been well suited for the FS role.
I would settle for the Boxer variant, being tested now, with the 105mm Cockerill turret.
So would I.
I think Daniele has answered your question, but yes, it would be a very useful addition to have and so would these.
Boxer-Brimstone
Jane defence site says stomshadow spear4 upgrade nears completion. Is this the new at distance strike missle? Any info on what the upgrade is as not a subscriber to Jane defence. Can it now be used as a ASM and be ship launched?https://www.janes.com/defence-news/weapons-headlines/latest/uk-storm-shadow-spear-cap-4-mlr-nears-completion
Storm Shadow has been in service for some time. “Spear 4” is just the name of its upgrade as part of the SPEAR program. “Selected Precision Effects at Range” Paveway IV LGB is “Spear1” for example.
I have no idea what the upgrade is but some here will know.
The new “at distance strike missile” is FC/ASW that is many years away yet.
The SPEAR 4 upgrade to Storm Shadow is more of a mid-life update, in a MBDA press statement they said: “The regeneration will consist of a midlife refurbishment of current missile parts such as the turbo-jet engine, an upgrade of the navigational system, and a like for like replacement of items such as the cabling, seals and gaskets.” Another feature that is being integrated is an in-flight retargeting capability sing a two-way data-link. I have yet to see any information on expanding its targeting capabilities to moving targets such as ships. There is more info on the trial in the… Read more »
Excellent daveyb thanks for the link interesting read, but sadly it is just a hardware upgrade to the missle.
Yup but a hardware upgrade could be a better processor and more flexible sensors.
Quite rightly, a lot of this stuff is kept quiet.
As the Cold War deep freeze is going back on again so it the veil being drawn across the capabilities of weapons systems.
Nato should move irresistable force into the frontlin baltic states and tell Putin to get out of Ukraine (all of it) or face the consequences, nothing else will have an effect. Otherwise we are just allowing him to take what he wants.
There is a big difference to being invited in and invading an independent country. Former Eastern block countries applied for and met the requirement for NATO membership weather Russia liked it or not. Politics aside the west needlessly poked the bear in the eye by public relentless criticism of the Russian state. We used to have a very able diplomatic way of resolving things without offending, something we now seem to be short of Lizz Truss.
I don’t think we can can blame this on the likes of Liz Truss. Putin was always going to do what he wants regardless of how skilful foreign secretaries, diplomats, and ambassadors are. As for public criticism of the Russian state, the most vitriolic I’ve heard comes from ordinary Russians for it being a kleptocracy with rigged elections and an absence of the rule of law.
You are missing the point I have made. Diplomatic speech is an entirely different language and the UK was renowned as the best in the business. Lizz Truss in my opinion is not best equipped in this time of crisis as foreign secretary either that or she is being badly advised. What I meant by way of public criticism is the way the the general media have reported over the years on Russia. I’m fully aware of the mistrust and grievances the Russian people have on their government and Putin. Its even know that Putins Generals in the field are… Read more »
Now the only question is will he stick with his gains or will he go for a Decapitation campaign. I’m not sure what way he will go. 1) if he sits on his gains, Ukraine is likely going to have to attack to regain its provinces as a nation cannot really sit back and let another nation take a slice of it by force. But if it does he’s effectively won without fighting and Ukraine will probably slowly wither on the vine over years. If Ukraine does attack he can they say look they initiated the war, it would not… Read more »
I’m sure the contracts are in place so that Putin can switch all his gas and oil exports to China instead. The Chinese have probably negotiated it so they pay less than Europe, but it means he can deny his exports to the west while still earning foreign currency for it. It gives him an economic weapon to counter western sanctions.
I would agree, I think we are seeing evidence of the formation of a strategic Russian chinese alliance, I don’t think Putin would have risked this level aggression otherwise. Where I am at present is that I think we are going to enter a period of instability as we shift from Unipolar to a bipolar geopolitical picture. China Russia will take some time to formalise their Geopolitical partnership, so we will see economic ties and flows of resources and goods, sharing of weapon tec and shared develop. There have been earlier bad behaviours by both China and Russia testing the… Read more »
I agree with plenty of that – apart from Blair – he has always been and always will be an self centred egotistical wanker.
The Chilcot report didnt go far enough – strange that.
Truth is you can think what you like about politicians ( we all have or personal favourite). But I would suggest at that time a conservative or labour Prime minister would have done the same. It’s in our interest to work with the US. Although we are still a major power, we are a major power within the hegemony that is the US. Sadam was an individual that had simply broken every international norm set by the West, not dealing with him was an open sore. He should have been removed earlier. The real failure was not removing him it… Read more »
Not yet but will be around 2024/5 with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline that will have a similar capacity to Russia’s exports to the EU. The Chinese are believed to pay more than Europe buying on long term contracts, as a contribution to pipeline costs. With the current very high spot prices that Europe insists on using Russia is getting very high revenues.
How about a comment on the invasion Johnbot?
Now, now! Be nice to them. I bet they aren’t sitting in a nice cosy home with a full stocked fridge … Unless you count the spuds frozen in the mud outside.
I won’t be surprise PoS2 pipeline will be sanctioned, any western equipment or parts used to build it will be stopped.
Both pipelines are completed and full of gas. No sanction, the Germans have withdrawn a technical certificate so the paperwork cannot be completed. Carefully leaving the option of use open in the future if it is needed.
No they can’t, not without building new gas infrastructure to take it to China, and this will take years. And the financing will be a problem as well, a big risk to China too, with huge debts.
And not forgetting the sanctions on construction companies that intend to build it, and equipment, i.e. JCB, CAT.
Design work and route approvals now virtually done. Russia has plenty of reserves to fund it, growing at an astonishing rate at the current oil price. No problem with hardware, they and China have plenty.
Well like the sad sack that I an I just watched the PMQ’s and after stating that the UK is going to sanction 5 Russian banks and 3 of Mr Putin’s side kicks that looks about it, When asked by a number of people on both sides of the house about raising the Defence expediter he would not commit to a reply, and it looked as though he would rather donate his left tactical to science than put up defence expediter which he stated was 2.4% of GDP ( a big question mark on that sum) The problem is that… Read more »
When the UK Gov say defence spending equals 2.4% that includes military and civil service pensions, the defence estate, foreign military aid & grants to overseas UK territories.
We DO NOT spend 2.4% on defence.
You are 100% correct it is more like 1.5%
but perhaps now is the time we need to go to 2,5% in real terms?
Both sides were talking about 3% and insisting that we push our Nato brothers to do the same. I just wounded how long it will take to filter through.
Thank you SAR . I truly hope this get’s rapid traction, it’s an excellent and badly needed idea .
How much do you think Germany cooks the books to get their 1.2%?
They sure don’t have jack sh*t to show for it.
Agreed SAR, but I think it’s been happening before Ukraine.
My personnel point of view is that this has been planed for a long time as if you look across the board we have never been so week, from our lack in military expenditure to the lack in political leadership as I have stated on a number of times on this forum Mr Putin and Mr Xi must have big smiles on their faces about now knowing that there is next to diddly squat we can do.
Remember there are already sanctions against the likes of Yevgeny Prigozhin, who runs the Wagner Group for Putin.
I expect the government has more sanctions planned for when Russia moves out of the rebel areas into Ukraine in general. That’s why they haven’t gone all-out yet, otherwise they’ll have nothing left in their sanctions armoury.
I do not think Mr Putin is too worried about sanctions, he has already signed a deal with Mr Xi to sell his Gas to China for the next 30 years.
Imagine this same situation with Corbyn and his 3rd rate nodding dogs in charge? God forbid!
Well if he had of won the vote last time around I think we would be well and truly up s–t street, as it is the Con’s are going to have to pull a rabbit out of the hat to get some money to wear it is needed, more personnel, more aircraft, more ships, and more AFVs along with all that supports them and they need to do it in short order not the 10 years they keep talking about.
It is difficult to see what can be done without at least some element of self-harm. Military action is out, obviously we couldn’t do anything unilaterally, even as part of a coilition the risks for exponential escalation would seem too great. That leaves sanctions. Unfortuntely London and its micro-economy is awash with Russian money and dodgy Russian money. Estimates put the amounts of money inviolved at a number of times higher than out defence budget. Freezing that kind of money in the economy would cause a major shock. I’m no fan of this government but in this instance I’m not sure the ‘right thing’… Read more »
This government is spending tens if not hundreds of billions on fighting climate change/Net Zero, none of which stands up to genuine scientific scrutiny. To spend money on the cliomate and not on defence is the act of an idiot and a traitor.
Sorry I don’t agree, the scientific consensus as well as evidence base is that man made global warming is a catastrophe level risk to human existence. Defending against a case of a last generation (that could be my grandchild) dying of starvation and gasping its last in a change atmospheric mix is of the upmost importance. It is a separate question to how much we should spend on defence, it’s not a zero sum game as we need to fund both. As for calling people traitors, I would watch myself with that if I was you, it leads down paths… Read more »
Hysteria
Yes, hysteria from the climate skeptics who can’t be bothered to read the science.
Actually, I did a geology course on the OU. Three hundred million years ago, Scotland was a tropical paradise on the equator. One minor coursework task was to find an internet image of the changing world. I chose the Peachtree rock in Georgia. Many tens of millions of years ago, it was ocean beachfront, now it is over 100 miles inland. In other words, mankind needs to get over itself. Stop self loathing. We are not destroying the planet. The planet is many thousands of miles deep to the core. The planet does not know we are here. At worst… Read more »
Shame you’ve lost any ability to reason critically, analyse data, etc. I assume they were taught on your OU course, pretty standard for all science really. Sounds a suspect course though if assignments involve googling images off the internet. Newsflash for you though, rocks have no impact on the climate of this planet. Climate change revolves around the composition of the minuscule layer of atmosphere that surrounds the planet. Nobody says we’re destroying the planet, which is another fake allegation from the anti-science brigade. What we are killing is the ability of the at Osohere and the planet to support… Read more »
There does need to be a referendum on “climate” . Give the public 2 options. Net zero, the current state religion. The other option would be a 60% reduction in 1990 CO2 levels. This is what the civil servants researched & said we could do, without shutting down UK industry or making our energy so expensive that pensioners risk freezing to death. They worked out, that if every country cut CO2 by 55% on 1990 levels, then that would achieve the desired result. Sadly Blair went to Europe & said 80% as he thought they would make him President. No… Read more »
I see a referendum, such as “Should we all die or should we do something to stop it?” Even if we achieve the latest COP targets we’re likely to breech limiting climate change to 1.5 Celsius. There’s no need to risk pensioners freezing to death due to high energy prices. The problem of expensive energy is because successive governments deferred taking difficult decisions to invest in new nuclear and to end the burning of gas to generate electricity. The one possible way we might undo that damage is with the SMR programme. As it it because of reducing wind, due… Read more »
John, whilst I’m liking your thinking , it’s pointless without China rapidly stepping up.
Not so much traitors agreed but very many 5th columnists within various opposition parties and political groups mate.
Yes there have been lots of useful idiots in the west, be they Communist idealists like corbin, or neoliberals like Cameron, willIng to sell out industry for quick money. Civilisations always fall because of the rot within, the barbarians at the door are always just a symptom. But l don’t like people using the word traitor, traitors are a specific breed of pond scum that is rare still.
Don’t I know it.
You don’t believe the science behind climate change? I assume you’re also one of those anti-vaxxers and believe the earth is flat too. From my observation on social media, those beliefs are common among the same lunatic fringe…
Were neither of you taught about Photosynthesis at school? If people like you are running the country then we do not need Putin to attack us because we will kill ourselves before he gets here.
That’s so funny Colin… being a bit sad with 4 degrees to my name (honest) three being health and risk management related and one being Environmental science I can tell you that the issue is not Just co2 and no one is taking about removing CO2 from the atmosphere as we would all die and we are not capable of doing that as it major planetary manipulation, you would probably need a civilisation with a kardashev scale over 1 ( we are at about .7 at present and will not get to level 1 for around another century at present… Read more »
Taken to the cleaners. 👍
Hi Johnathin. Thanks for the detailed post. This is a really interesting read. My real concern is China, and to a degree India- no pun intended. Climate change is not a true agenda item for either of them. I’m interested in understanding how life may adapt /evolve to a carbon heavy environment. Is it possible we see a significant expansion of these (photoferrotrophs)? Might this make a meaningful contribution to offsetting the carbon menace? Another not so cheery question.Could man made climate change and natural change be occurring simultaneously? The sum effect being greater than the individual components. A frightening thought… Read more »
Hi Klonkie some interesting thoughts there, photoferrotrophs are an interesting set of micro organisms, they played a huge part in the productivity of early occeans. The problem with then is what is left is essentially the last surviving remnant of very early life on this planet. They lived in occeans that were very high in FE(ll) and almost no O2 they are essentially anaerobic converters of CO2 and FE(ll) into oxidase FE and a few other products. They basically created the worlds banded iron formations ( iron rich rocks). To live they need FE(ll) rich occeans/waters that are in an… Read more »
“A little learning is a dangerous thing”… Like most climate sceptics you haven’t bothered to read the science. Instead you listen to the rants from the climate-skeptic lobby who claim we want to remove all carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. WRONG. There’s nothing wrong with carbon divide in the atmosphere, but there is a problem if there’s too much. Don’t believe it? Visit Venus and see how bad too much carbon dioxide can be. Like most things in life, too much or too little, is dangerous. And at the moment, we’re moving towards too much. Carbon capture to remove some… Read more »
But at least we’ll have a Green and pleasant Land too watch the end of the World from
NO CO2 = NO GREEN EVER
Are you the famous Tommo from Bishop Hill?
Sorry too say No Colin I’m South Coast Tommo from the Last Resort Bogska Riga well that’s what it’s like now but we still have Butlitz holiday stalug
Yes we could act unilaterally. As a guarentor of Ukraine’s territorial integreity/soveriengty under which she gave up nukes we could, for example, deploy a squadron or two of Typhoons if Russian forces advance any further. So could the USA but Biden has shot himself in the foot(practically giving Putin licence at the cost of more sanctions) in pleasing the no foreign war lobby. Highly unlikely for us to act without allies, but unless Putin makes a major mistake he can play us all for the fools we’ve become until he’s half way through Poland. The longer we let him get… Read more »
I’ve now boycotted buying Russian Dolls 🪆 and following Chelski FC that should put Putin in his place
^.^
I’ve just smashed a russian egg a relative got me from Russia..it was cheap and I did not need it anymore…..I’m saving the Russian dolls for any further aggression by Russia, it’s best not to use every sanction in the bank and they cost good money you know ( and the kids like them)
Thanks Johnathan, when the SUN newspaper told its readers too Boycott Argie Cornbeef the JUNTA in Argentina collapsed the same should happen with Russian Dolls and Pickled herring that should have those in the Kremlin quaking in their boots LOL 😆
While offering Ukraine membership of NATO risks starting WW3, how do people feel about offering Ukraine a NATO guaranteed “Safe Haven” in Western Ukraine. So everything West of the breakaway Transnistria border. Roughly including Kamjanec-Podilskyj ,Chmelnyckyj,& up to thr Beloruss border at Ovruc. Everything West of that would be in the Ukraine safe haven.
The problem with that approach is you are de-facto recognising the annexation of the other half of the country which rewards Russia for its actions.
Stops them taking the other half.
It’s not the other half, at best it leaves 20% of Ukraine free, and Putin with the major cities, the industrial areas, the resources of Donbas and Azov.
It’d be another Gaza Strip, but in Europe.
At the moment, not one square inch of Ukraine is protected by NATO. So if Putin wants to take the lot & install a puppet government, we have done nothing to stop it. If a good chunk of Western Ukraine is under NATO protection, we stop that. If Western Ukraine prospers while occupied Eastern Ukraine stagnates, Putin’s lies will be obvious. Also, a safe haven frees up Ukraine forces to where they are most needed in the East.
The part of Ukraine you suggest as a ‘safe haven’ is a only 20%, and industrially the least developed and the least populated. It would depend on aid because no private capital is going to be invested in something as tenuous as a ‘safe haven’. Meanwhile Russian and Chinese money would poor into the wealthy part that you suggest surrendering to Putin 🤦🏻♂️
I’m sure Putin would be ecstatically happy with your plan.
What Chinese money? They are hugely in debt. Meanwhile, with no part of Ukraine under NATO protection, expect tens of thousands of refugees to head into Western Europe.
You do realise it’s possible to have both don’t you? 🤷🏻♂️🤦🏻♂️
This is especially true of nation states, as they can issue bonds/gilts. And in times when interest rates were virtually or were zero, it completely made sense to borrow to invest.
Hi John This is really difficult, it’s impossible for Ukraine to now join NATO, without changing some key rules. Essentially it’s been impossible for Ukraine to join NATO since Russia annexed Crimea, Putin knows this as well as anyone. It why his demands have always been a bit of a joke to be honest. So membership is a red herring, what the west really needs to decide is will it guarantee Ukraine sovereignty with the use of force. That’s been ruled out so effectively we know that answer to that question. It may be that this is a geopolitical mistake… Read more »
I am not suggesting membership, just a NATO guaranteed safe haven in the Western part. Putin wants a buffer, NATO should have one too.
To be honest John, I think it’s a case of guaranteed Ukraine sovereign and go to war or don’t. Sudetenland was the same sort of well we are not going to war to stop you take all the key areas of a country…but don’t go any further ( it does not work, as the sundered nation dies on the vine and no one in the west would fight a war with Russia over a pointless rump of an ex nation). At this point I would say it’s really hard, because I think we are heading to a general war anyway… Read more »
A half-way house might be for NATO to enforce another no-fly zone over Ukraine – it would prevent further airlines being shot down…
Russia’s big advantage over Ukraine is air superiority, deny this and the Ukraine Army has a fighting chance. The question is what happens when , enforcing this, NATO fighters down Russian plans or gunships over Ukraine… Would Putin accept he can’t use air assets or would he escalate?
I think he would escalate, to be honest I’m not sure NATO would be able enforce a no fly zone, Russia has put a lot of effort into modernising its airforce and it has a good mixture of capabilities linked with mass. The only way to handle the Russian squadron numbers would be a massive redeployment from the US.russia has well over 60 fighter and attack squadrons, no one really knows how many aircraft are ready for front line deployment, but whatever it’s a lot more than NATO has in Eastern Europe.
Escalate. He would attempt to shoot down the air policing while proclaiming they were dropping bombs on ethnic Russians in Donbas etc..
Unfortunately air policing doesn’t work well when you can’t play offense. NATO’s fighter superiority is great, but they have to actually fight to enjoy it. (drop bombs, shoot HARM missiles into S-300 sites etc.)
I also don’t think NATO has the stomach to shoot down Russian aircraft over Ukraine. Especially Russian transport and logistical aircraft. The images on the news would be a public relations disaster.
You inviting emperor Putin to move up to that line!
You are inviting him to the Polish, Slovakian, Hungarian, Romanian borders. I want to keep Putin well away from those.
I hope the fact that the slashing of the u.k force’s to the lowest levels since the 1700’s isn’t going to bite us now
I see Ben Wallace ripped into Jeremy Corbyniski in the Commons today.
Great move!
Watched it after Farouk put the link up! Good stuff by Wallace, he actually seems like he means it! But alas plenty of 5th columnists sat on the opposition benches, backed by their external organisations and the simpletons of the STWC and the like. Many, I am sure funded by very well washed Russkie money.
I think some of them just long for the good old days if the USSR and it’s communist paradise they hoped to replicate in the U.K…
Yes Wallace did give it to him, I’m a labour voter, but I was not willing to vote for that man… he would have seen us a step closer to a client state of China.
Just to remind you AB, there’s CND as well that wants the UK to leave NATO, as well of leaving us without a nuke deterrent.
CND was effectively e a Soviet funded group in the 80s . Sad how idealist individuals can be easily used as geopolitical tools.
I just wonder Airbourne whether those of Comrade Corbinski are fully paid up members of the World Peace Council that organisation that was set up in the 50ts too stop imperialism, war, and promote peace All curtesy of the Soviet Union probably with their form of the above objectives yet people like Corbinski really believe in this from his home in the People’s Republic of Islington
Corbin ohhh Corbin, what did you do to the Labour Party you useful fool.
All while staying silent on his party accepting Russian money.
Is there any risk that Putin could actually be planning to steamroller quickly through Ukraine and on into other former Eastern bloc countries, rather than ‘just’ invading Ukraine – he must sense NATO weakness and such a thrust might be somewhat unexpected, in a ‘Blitzkrieg’ manner, achieving an element of surprise that is not present in the much-expected (and maybe quite slow) taking of Kiev etc. – ? I obviously hope & pray this is not his intention but how ready & resistant would NATO actually be?
Oh dear I’ve just seen the video of Putin and the head of the Russian foreign intelligence service. The body language and dialog may have been entertaining if it was from a James Bond film and not a public discussion between the totalitarian leader of a major nuclear power and his head of intelligence. Sergei looked to be fearful and looked like a man who was trying not to get shoot but at the same time looked like a man agreeing what he new was a horror story. Putin just looked a bit bored and then mildly amused ( he… Read more »
Yes the long term plan is these republics will ‘vote’ to join Russia. Sergei was jumping too far ahead in the script.
Yes just like Austria strangely voted for annexation after the Nazi party under took a coup.
With Biden/Harris in charge Putin has nothing to fear. Hence the invasion.
Steve Bannon tell you to say that?. Trump was and is utterly in thrall to Putin and betrayed America and its allies including Ukraine. At the Helsinki summit in 2018, Putin owned Trump. Didn’t notice any attempt by Trump to persuade him to disengage from Donbass did you? Trump lost the election, get over it.
You live in an alternate reality.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vpwkdmwui3k
Trump called out Germany for exactly what is happening right now. Biden plays ‘Nice guy’ and Putin smiles ear to ear as he steals half the block.
Germany being called out was perhaps no bad thing, but Trump did it for different reasons, it wasn’t to strengthen the alliance, but more to do damage and provide a pretext for America to walk away . The actual reality is the collusion between Russia and Trump republicans. I don’t think Biden is particularly strong or the best person to occupy the White House, but at least he isn’t a Russian asset.
I think we are way beyond sanctions now. The banks and billionaires who have been targeted by Britain and whoever else, have had months to take whatever action, to avoid any real financial problems caused by sanctions. The however many week standoff between Russia and the West, came with a large (maybe huge) financial cost to Russia. Putin will not back down now. He has been goading the world for months, and the world has done **** all. He has now taken that as a green light for his shenanigans. Europe will do nothing. The US will do nothing. Sad… Read more »
There was no financial cost to Russia and, given what the sanctions have turned out to be, its unlikely to be one. Instead they are making out like bandits on the stunning gas and oil prices. Many here seem to be cheering the US/UK etc on without realising that post April its going to be hitting us all very hard in our energy bills, that’s on top of petrol now.
So every time a country’s military conduct exercises, there is no financial cost?
Sorry, I phrased it incorrectly, I should have said ‘net financial cost’.Those Belarus exercises seem to have had, on top of all else, an effect on oil and gas prices creating huge windfall profits for Russia and other producers. This includes the US of course who are benefiting at a corporate level whilst us consumers in Europe get hit, hard.
Time to take your our troll apologist shite elsewhere. Your a troll, easy to spot and many on here’s have given you the benefit of the doubt. But your continued support for Criminal Putin and his knuckle dragging hangers on would make the Nazis at the Nuremberg trials blush!
Trusting you and yours to find the good news aspect of this crisis.
No Ukrainian Army attack on Donbass? Recognition in the West that financial sanctions are a busted flush, likely to hurt both sides\/
You have proven wrong with your predictions, you have denied what has happened so far.
He doesn’t give up, thick skin and obviously thinks he is convincing people of his hero’s bullshit!
Donbass cannot be attacked by Ukrainian forces. It is in Ukraine’s internationally recognised historic borders. I have no idea what your ‘V’ means but today everything that has come out of your mouth(s) is shown to be a lie, a lie proven by dead Ukrainians this morning, dying under your friend Putin’s bombing.
Correct, as JohninMK is yet another troll account set up by sad wankers!
Russia is a busted flush as is Putin, hence part of his reason to murder Ukrainian people.
The sanctions weren’t meant to cost Russia, because the general population are blameless. These sanctions target Putin’s friends, who hold his money for him, and the banks that they use or are used by the Russian military for purchases.
They’re not making out like bandits, the market sets the prices, and the markets are spooked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
If that were the case it would be pretty unique. The sanctions on Lebanon, Iran, Iraq, Venezuela and Yemen for example are hitting the populations very hard. Whilst the leaders invariably have their money safely salted away. I doubt, given the sanctions are not being applied by Turkey and China for example that they will have much effect in Russia where the money is just pouring in. The action most likely to punish Moscow would be reducing energy prices with a deal with Iran.
Sad sad and sad! You must be a troll account as if not you are one of the saddest, pathetic sheep to join UKDJ. The internet’s awash with sad Russkie troll accounts and disinformation! I see you don’t post on the the stories on here relating to current combat ops as troll behaviour means you will have to justify murder! And I have to say atm I’m not impressed by your average Russkie Tom, pretty shite by the look of it!
As I said before I am working long hours upgrading my cloakroom. That takes priority. The rest of the time is taken trying to absorb what is happening, no time left for commenting, especially here where much of the time it is not appreciated.
Yaaawn weak effort at ignoring the request of condemning Putins actions! The more you post the more confirmation of sad trolling! And your average Russkie soldier are garbage and shouldn’t have the soldier terminology used on them! Absolute amateurs!
Hellooooo? Hellooooooo troll bot? Where are you? New avatar and bot profile needed methinks and more multiple profiles on a few more sites to carry on the pathetically Putin drooling, tissue covering, sheet staining comments to continue to try to sway the opinion of people to support your Nazi leader! Bye bye Russki loser, maybe less time online and more time in the practice of soldiering and logistics needed, then you wouldn’t be losing the tactical battles pretty much everybody time! Fucking pathetic and useless!
The wholesale price of oil and gas will fall in the summer months.
Also the high prices now will simulate alternative production and exploration over the longer term.
It didn’t drop significantly last summer and is unlikely to do so this year given the 5% level of gas storage now that needs to be refilled. Oil price will drop if the Iran deal gets done.
Any condemnation of Putin yet troll boy?
An open note to Mr Putin. Pause and reflect on 15 Feb 1989. Watch the last of the Soviet forces leaving Afghanistan. Might there be a lesson for you to learn?
Please, think before you act like a fool ! Aw sh*t too late!
it’s a game of chess. Putin has enough forces to take and hold his 2 new ‘countries’ Donetsk and Luhansk but not enough to guarantee taking and holding the whole of Ukraine. He.has just said today he wants a demilitarised Ukraine. Not going to happen. Russia controls all the borders of Ukraine except the border with Poland. Its looking like an action replay of the Berlin airlift.
Ukraine has announced a limited mobilization of the reserves and begun teaching school children how to survive in a combat zone.
😅
Hi Pete, I like to have a laugh but seriously, if there are any further intrusions into Ukrainian territory I hope these Russian forces get blitzed right where they are! As our PM said today Australia supports those who have to stand up to bullies! 🇦🇺 🇺🇦 As do a lot of other countries.
Lol, you remember the seperatist leaders statements being recorded two days ahead of the day they said it was in the videos? Check out this: Putin broadcast his cabinet meeting live on state tv at 5pm local time where his cabinet ‘advised’ him to recognize the breakaway states, except everyone in the rooms watches are showing 11:45. Afterwards he gave his rambling speech about Ukraine then appeared to walk straight into another room and sign the treaties. Except the time on the watches of Putin and the two leaders when he signed the documents was 10:15, two hours before his… Read more »
So much talk and when we do act we get pathetically narrow sanctions. Putin must be laughing at us. There seems to be no willingness to tackle the vast amount of (allegedly) dirty Russian money in London or to sanction their largest companies. I’m sure that has nothing at all to do with BP and Shell investing in Russia, or the political donations that all sides seem to get and turn a blind eye to. Something is rotten here. Blimey at this rate we are reliant on Germany having the balls to stand up to Putin, which they have at… Read more »
Putin depressingly has the Adolf about him. If we don’t show him the brown end of the stick he will be back for more. So will China.
Certainly True!
Interesting looking at what is coming out of China and some of the open source thinking. It looks like the Russia China summit on the 4th March have had some discussions around the Russian actions in Ukraine as there are some reports China asked Russia not to start its timetable until after the Olympics ( which would seem to be corroborated by what actually happened on the ground). China has also come out with a statement today that effectively blames the US and NATO for the tension, Criticises the sanctions, while adding there is a need for deescalation, which reads… Read more »
As we are all focusing on this crisis it would be good to remember Putin is not stopping in the Ukraine!lets not forget the ‘peacekeepers’ in Kazakhstan another ‘independent’ country that can’t look after itself it seems!
Although it is reported they are leaving but it won’t take long for them to be back!