NATO secretary general Jens Stoltenberg has confirmed that an independent Scotland would have to leave the alliance.

Updated 29th December 2019.

“If it happens, then the UK will continue as a member of NATO but a new independent state has to apply for membership and then it is up to 28 allies to decide whether we have a new member.

All decisions in NATO are taken by consensus, so we need the consensus of all allies.

By leaving the UK it will also be leaving Nato, but of course it is possible to apply for membership and then the allies would then decide whether the independent state would become a member of NATO.”

It is understood that many believe Scotland would likely face the issue of having its entry challenged by Spain which is cautious of encouraging break-away states due to the independence movement in its Catalonia region. However in light of Spain’s recent statements regarding their acceptance of Scotland’s entry to the European Union, this is unlikely to be the case.

An independent Scotland would meet most the entry requirements of the alliance however it may not be able to join for many years if approved as the entry process for the alliance is lengthy.

George Allison
George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison
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156 COMMENTS

  1. If a ‘yes’ vote then I don’t think NATO would want a non aligned state on it’s North Western European approaches for long but I do think NATO would be very upset about SNP position on Faslane. I could see Faslane ending up in some kind of trade off. Scotland can join NATO but has to Hong Kong style lease Faslane / Coulport to rUK.

    Who knows though, the world’s a very uncertain place right now!

    • Even the white paper “Scotland’s Future” indicated that Trident would be gone in one term of parliament – but then contradicted itself by talking about a 10 year transition for Faslane to the SDF HQ and naval base. I think that was deliberate “my door is open”.

      I think as I said below, there would be a 10 year period for the rUK to move its nukes out of Scotland, in exchange for the continuation of the T26 build, plus money, though the money could be in kind like training etc. I also think QRA North would transition, but that’s another story. It would if it was my decision, and WITHIN Nato it would be almost obligatory.

      Sturgeon is a different player from Salmond, but seems to be ready to appoint and listen to non-aligned experts – even if they disagree with her (as in her poverty czar). I think she too would be reasonable.

      • This blackmail proposal by the SNP is ludicrous and if the Scots did vote for independence (highly unlikely as Sturgeon and Blackford are as trustworthy as Commissar Corbynov), instead of giving in to it, we should tell them to do one, refuse the SNP any more Royal Navy contracts, force them to pay for any regiments of the British Army they would like to buy or rent off of us and be busy building a new submarine base now.
        As NATO have said that Scotland would have to reapply for membership, it could be years before it is approved….if at all so the future for an independent Scotland doesn’t look rosy at all..

      • Dadsarmy Faslane and Coulport are great submarine bases but pretty much useless for surface vessels, Depending on prime minister in UK at the time the position of t26 /t31 shipbuilding against use of this facility may be seen as a step too far , if the US looked after the missiles the base could be closed relatively quickly, this coupled with the loss of shipbuilding to north of England could cause a large spike in unemployment in Scotland and a substantial loss of revenue for a fledgling Scotland.

    • Sorry guys – I must missed something here – can someone explain to me what ‘rUK’ means and why there’s so much palaver about its use?

      • Rump UK-England, Wales and NI, although the term is an oxymoron of sorts as the United Kingdom really refers to the Union of the Crowns of England and Scotland dating back to 1606. It has however become the modern tag for the political Union. In essence, if Scotland leaves there is no more United Kingdom as one of the two partners has departed

        • ps the SNP has indicated that Queen Elizabeth(the first of Scotland) would remain Head of State but the Union of both Crown and Country would cease-i.e. Scotland would in essence have a seperate Monarchy with the person on the throne shared as Queen of Scotland and Queen of England

        • A common mistake made by some is a belief that the United Kingdom was created by the Union of the Crowns in 1603 not the Treaty of Union in 1707. The Union of the Crowns was and is a historical and legal misnomer. The Crowns of the two countries were not united in 1603. The crowns, and the two countries, remained separate. All that happened was that the same head came for the first time to wear the separate crowns of two separate countries defined under law as “Personal Union” as opposed to “Political Union.” What happened in 1707 was that Anne, Queen of Scotland, entered into a treaty with Anne, Queen of England, to merge the two countries into a single state in international law. Then and only then was there a United Kingdom.

          • Not quite, the first Union in 1707 merged England & Wales and Scotland to form Great Britain and that alongside N.Ireland in 1800 unified to form the United Kingdom, so it is a union inside of a union. The Union you would be dissolving is Great Britain which would then become Britain after Britannia the Roman name for England and then N.Ireland as the second union would remain intact.
            Scotland is not a member of the United Kingdom in it’s own right like England they are members by virtue to their membership of Great Britain, only N.Ireland is a member of the UK in it’s own right.

        • Not quite Geoff. England and Wales became United Kingdom’s in 1542, the Scotland, then Ulster. All were regarded as separate countries making up the U.K. If Scotland were to leave,and I hope it doesn’t, there is nothing to stop the other three remaining as the United Kingdom.

          • Thank you for your posts. Geoffrey and Trevor.The 1603 Union of the Crowns was the forerunner to the political Union and was represented by the creation of the first Union Flag. Also it was Ireland that became part of the Union, not Ulster. Ulster(or the 6 Counties) remained part of the UK after the Irish Free State left on partition in 1920
            Regards

          • Hi Geoff…appreciate what you say about what was the Kingdom of Ireland. Using Ulster was just me making a jump to the modern era.

          • Thanks Geoffrey. My family are all from Northern Ireland. I lived there as a child and in those days we all called it Ulster but in these politically correct times we have to say NI as those from the “other camp” object as 6 counties of Ulster are in the UK and 3 are in the ROI so strictly speaking only 2/3rds of Ulster in the UK
            Cheers

          • Hello again…never knew that. I always thought that Ulster was the six counties.What a strange old nation we are really.

          • It’s got little to do with “political correct”, the Unionists for example have long been unhappy with how NI was referred to by the Republic for decades.

            It’s correct to call Northern Ireland what it is, as Ulster is more than what NI is, though I’m sure if you are from a Unionist background then it might be why it was more common to call NI Ulster

    • If Scotland does become independent and part of NATO – then why would they charge the UK, a NATO member state to lease Faslane? We pay to use a base which protects…Scotland? I think not.

  4. So summing up the SNP they:
    1/ Want to leave the UK because the rest of the country is oppressing them and they aren’t heard, but want to be in the EU where they absolutely won’t get a say in anything at all.
    2/ Want the RN out of Scotland because it makes them a nuclear target but thinks it’ll continue to build the RN’s ships and (if this article is correct in alluding to it) now want to stay in NATO where because of membership they will have nuclear weapons on their soil and will be a target for any anti-NATO aggressor?
    3/ Like to convince their voters there is a magic money tree called London full of the hated Tories and when its stops spending extra money on them, they can stamp their feet and the Tories will pay. But if they get their way the tree stops spending on them all together, forever!

    There is such a thing as blind self destructive utterly unfounded hate and the SNP is very sadly full of it. Anyone but England. Not so much harmless fun?

    Guess if they win we’ll build another wall. At least the foundations are still there from the last one. The really sad thing is I don’t know very many people in the south who give a hoot.

    • Ali, we’re an independent Scotland to join the EU it would get a vote, the rotating presidency and a greater number of MSPS. It would also get a veto. But apart from that no changel eh!

    • I wonder if you still think the same as before now that other things have come to light.. There is no longer a United Kingdom… More disunited than ever due to your Tory Government… Examples… Our ELECTED FM can NO longer talk to the PM and must deal with the lying David Mundell who Westminster reckon is ranked as the same status as Nicola Sturgeon… JOKE.. After Brexit.. For which 62% of Scots voted to stay in the EU.. Being pulled out against our will. All laws will be returned to Westminster and they will decide which laws are devolved…. JOKE. The ceasing of the Barnett Formula.. JOKE.. The Dementia Tax. JOKE…The Rape Claue… ABSOLUTELY SCANDALOUS… But to name a few… If you’re gonna start spouting off about Scotland do your homework first… Take a look at the figures of how much Scotland actually contributes to the UK.. You will find we contribute a bigger % than the Government let on… The sooner we have Independence and get away from those money grabbing Westmonster Tories the better… SAOR ALBA

      • While Ali’s post was a bit of a rant, I am of the understanding that the IFS has stated Scotland has a larger deficit than the UK as a whole. The GERS has estimated that Scotland’s budget deficit in 2017-18 was just shy of 8% of GDP, which compares to 1.9%for the UK as a whole, which corresponds to an extra borrowing of nearly £1900 per person, over an above the £600 being borrowed by the Government per person in the UK as a whole. An interesting discussion point maybe. As for the story in hand, NATO will allow an independent Scotland to remain, no matter what it’s defence capabilities are, or become, simply by virtue of its location in regard to the North Atlantic.

        • And don`t forget that the large extra wad of cash the Barnett Formula gives to the Scots every year. That would go. And Sturgeon reckons that the EU have quietly indicated that they would welcome Scotland as an independent nation. Really? I have no doubt that Spain would veto that. And Sturgeon knows that, but waffles around the fact.

    • To Ali I think if you do a little research you will find out its your Westminster government that thinks Scotland is a money tree.For instance have you ever read the Macrone report.

    • Al….i I’m sorry this so called ” partnership of equals” is a non starter as far as Faslane et al is concerned does not bear fruit….you accuse the SNP of unfounded hate would ideally love the thought of you demonstrating to me this over Brexit. The UK is (insanely) heading over a cliff edge despite what the SNP and others have advised and are being totally ignored so where is the blindness there….perhaps ask Coronel Davidson?

    • I love the way people like you are so stupid you don’t even know how far into England Hadrian’s wall is , but hey, if you want to hand over all that extra land mass feel free, at least it won’t get fracked by the Tories !

      • And I love the fact that Hadrians wall was built before the idea of the English and Scottish nations were in existence. But aside from that, pesky Caledonians, coming over ere, stealing our cattle……lol

    • Let Scotland leave – they will soon regret it. Something like 80% of their trade is with the UK – not the EU. It could be a disaster especially if UK pulls all shipbuilding out of the now foreign country of Scotland, and resettles all work in the South (Belfast, Liverpool, Plymouth, Portsmouth, Wallsend, Birkenhead, Barrow, Middlesborough, Sunderland). These locations would love to have all the new business am sure of that.

      • Aye, the Royal Navy is getting a massive increase in hulls, has been for years….

        I get the spitefulness towards an indy Scotland but honestly Rob, just how much do you think building war canoes actually adds to the Scottish (or British) economy. I know we’ve all got an interest in Defence, its why we’re here but when you think we spend 2% of the budget on defence, how much of that do you think trickles down to procurement, you could break it down to Naval procurement where the really expensive stuff gets made in Barrow. If in the event of Scottish independence (I’ll add its not something I’ll be voting for if and when there’s another referendum) building skimmers (or not) isn’t going to be the thing that would keep an indy Scotland going.

        • Fair dues mate. I think it would be a disaster for jobs and expertise in Scotland – not necessarily a financial crisis as you said, 2% of GDP and it’s spread about across the planet not just in the UK. I do respect the wishes of Scottish people whatever their choice, but I have to think it would be a huge and unnecessary headache.

    • I always squirm when the SNP say they want independence for Scotland – arguably the most independent part of the Union – own legal system, own education system, and now lots of other independent elements (e.g. police, NHS, BBC). No. It’s SEPARATION they want. The anti-English SNP want to be free of dependence on Westminster so they can be dependent on Brussels instead. All that go-it-alone stuff is b*ll*x. We should reflect, perhaps, on what we’ve done or not done to merit such opprobrium. Whenever I see/hear Ms Sturgeon on TV my heart sings this phrase from that song in West Side Story: “I know a plane you can get on, bye bye!”

  5. There are plenty of people in the rUK that do give a hoot. I would say most.
    i think as it is,uk parliaments decision to hold a referendum or not, lets have the referendum now eg next 4-8 weeks, that should take the wind out of the SNPs sails. I do not want to have to wait 2-3 years for a 2nd Scots referendum and have nothing but talking about Scotland on the news all the time when rUK needs to focus on brexit.
    I think militarily Scotland will have to stand alone for a while, meaning leave uk and apply to join NATO whilst Russia will no doubt fly test flights over their air space and send their subs close in shore to harrass and worry Scotland.
    The SNP want to leave rUK as they do not want to be controlled by a distant undemocratically voted for body. But you want to join the EU? What? Might as well hand your keys to Germany and get your name down for a vast financial bailout in 2021 2022 2023. £15-20 billion for each year right now.
    I like most uk citizens are getting fed up with Sturgeon and her cronies. Let Scotland leave and lets get on with the vote now…. But i think sturgeon and Scottish parliament need to sign a paper stating clearly that if they lose the 2nd independence referendum then they will not push for a 3rd referendum for at least 25 years just to give the rUK some peace for a while and a rest from all their rubbish.
    several things will definetly happen if they vote for independence.
    QRA north will move to leeming or cumbria/ Northumberland.
    nuclear deterrent will move south to Devon or Cornwall.
    all subs will move back to devonport
    all shipbuilding for MOD will be done in rUK none will go to Scotland.
    MPA Poseidon fleet will move south to Wales or northern ireland
    barnet formulary will end.
    say goodbye to free social care, free prescriptions, free university places.
    Upto Scotland but ultimately they will be far worse off, upto them.
    Alternatively Teresa may could just say shut up to sturgeon as they have already had a referendum. Numerically more Scots have already voted to remain in uk rather than stay in EU so decisions have already been made.

    • Well said! Fed-up with the whole thing. Remember also that the costs of these referendums are partly funded by rUK. We are getting to the neverendum where Sturgeon will just keep asking until she gets her way.

      • Don’t forget my man that that money comes out of Scotland’s budget anyway,money that is grabbed by the uk government,if the truth is known run don’t want Scotland to get independence because they would lose all the resources that Scotland provide ,resources that England doesnt have.

    • QRA North could move to Leeming, though that’s only about 70 miles further north than Coningsby. It would need work, and relocations from it – I think it’s used as a Hawk training base.

      The rest of your post is mostly off-topic politics I’m afraid.

      • If Scotland was blocked from joining NATO we could simply see what the WP had to offer, or you could put it back in your trousers and stop being stupid…

    • You’re spot on old fruit, that’s why Westminster is so gaggingly desperate to hold on to Scotland, they love spending out the money on us.
      A Gov that won’t even subsidise a spare bedroom to keep medical equipment for a sick child yet you think they subsidise an entire nation.
      Any more at home as stupid as you ?

  6. Even if Scotland leave, which I think this time round wont happen, I don’t believe for a minute that the UK ( and it is the UK not rUK) will allow our northern border to sit defenceless for years to come. Lets all try and remember that the Scots are not the enemy, as a people they are our very good friends, its only the SNP that are the issue. We might have to remove our Nukes from Scotland but other defence issues will simply be by agreement. My bet is that Scotland would join NATO as soon as was possible, Spain may object, but I think the UK’s strategic needs will out weigh that.

    Its very important that we don’t allow nationalists who are not the majority in either England Scotland or Wales to sour the relationships we as a people have built with each other.

    Scotland leaving the UK would be bad for Scotland in almost every respect ( bit like BREXIT in truth, but as a nation we voted for it) we don’t need to wish them harm if they do leave – we are British and I hope that what ever happens our sense of fair play as a nation overrides the desire to punish.

    ps… no I don’t support the SNP, I live in England, I just have a lot of Scottish friends.

    • I am a “Nat”, but imagine for a minute I’m the Secretary General of NATO, no don’t laugh, and am faced with this referendum of Independence for Scotland from the UK.

      My duty is to NATO and the 28 members, and for this my prime concern is the UK, a very valuable perhaps vital member. So while not taking sides in a purely internal member matter, I clearly lay out the problems Scotland will have, the membership requirements, that a MAP would be needed to be set up and at least implemented in some basic measures. And then I leave it at that.

      What I don’t say is that Scotland would be a valued member of NATO, that it has all sorts of exercise areas and bombing ranges and that its waters and indeed airspaces are of great importance strategically. If the media want to twist my words, then that’s up to them, I said what I said (and perhaps it’s actually on nato dot int).

      Then there’s a YES vote for Scotland and within minutes of the result I’m on the phone to Sarah MacIntosh “we need to talk”.

    • Why would we move the nukes? Much easier to annex Faslane and the surrounding area, much like Akotiri. If my deluded countrymen really do press the self destruct button (they wont) then it would be clear to me that the rest of the UK would owe Scotland zilch. Therefore to hell with them and act in the best interests of the rest of UK which would be best served by retaining the current submarine base.

    • I’m sorry to burst your bubble, but the problem is NOT the SNP.. The trouble is that most of England ( NOT SCOTLAND) voted for Brexit.. 62% of Scotland voted to remain… Where is the Democracy in that.?.. The SNP are only speaking for 62% who are being treated unfa1irly because of a decision made south of the border. The Tory Government is causing a bigger rift between the 2 Countries than the SNP will ever make… I’m not Anti English as I have friends and family who live there. What I am against is being told by a bunch of money grabbing screwballs ” shut up Scotland”.. Well i’ve got news for you!!! We will never be quiet until we are Independent and Free..

      • Because secession every time a electoral question comes up is not a way to run a country. The whole country voted for Brexit. That does not mean secede in a huff.
        Independent and Free? You have no idea how ridiculous you sound. The UK may not be as “free” as the US but you are not exactly in the Gulag.

      • Joan-remember London voted overwhelmingly to Remain so how should this result be treated? I think Brexit(of which I am not a supporter now) is just the current excuse to push for another Referendum. If we stayed Sturgeon would still find another reason for Indyref2

      • Wow, what a deluded an inaccurate person you are. The SNP are simply using Brexit as an excuse to push for a massively damaging independence. Scotland needs to be fully aware of the facts if they decide to do that.
        All military will be pulled out
        Deterrent will go to east coast USA until a permanent base built in Cornwall, rUK will I am sure be happy to pay for this cost rather than pay a newly independent scotland to base our forces in their country. So that’s what 35,000 jobs gone immediately?
        QRA will move south, plenty of space in Northumberland for a QRA base and maritime patrol aircraft to be based.
        Cost of a new airfield rUK I am sure will be happy to pay rather than be told by SNP we can base in Scitland but have to pay them for the privilege of defending their territory. Deluded!
        Ship building will cease in Scotland and move south and across to northern ireland
        All of these scenarios are just the military outcomes, dont be deluded by the financial situation. Barnett formularly will end, no more bail outs £16-20 billion a year budget deficit for scotland + you will have to take a share of the debt you have helped to accumulate so £200 billion sounds correct on that front. Looking very rosy isn’t it for Scotland. I’m sure a country of 5.6 million people with a budget deficit and debt as outlined will be welcomed with open arms by the EU. Primed and ready for financial bailouts in 2021,2022,2023 and forever thereafter.

  7. Mr Stoltenberg is of course absolutely correct. Independent Scotland would have to go through the formal process of applying and being accepted by the current NATO members, and there would need to be a Membership Action Plan for Scotland, agreed between NATO and the Scottish Government.

    Would NATO want us? You’d think so, we do cover the GIUK (Greenland Iceland UK ) gap, and in fact so much it would have to be renamed the GIS gap. Strategically NATO diminishes far too much without us.

    But while that formal application was going through what then? First I’d think NATO would want to “spread its wings” around us anyway, including an effective Article 5 defence. Imagine those pesky Russians taking over and sticking missile bases all round Scotland, and flooding Faslane with her subs.

    Oh that’s right, Faslane. It would take 10 years for the rUK to move it (Coulport is the problem), and meanwhile they need to have agreed access and indeed, protection.

    So I’d guess all that would be needed would be an interim agreement between NATO and the (transitional) Scottish Government for full access and protection, and the MAP and concensus of acceptance into NATO takes its own sweet time.

    As for Spain. this is a red herring brought up a lot to make things appear difficult for Scotland “oh it’s all too hard vote NO”. However, the Spanish government has made it very clear that the situation with Scotland is very very very different from Catalonia, because it is in Spain’s constitution that there can be no secession, whereas if Scotland’s Independence is within the UK’s constitution, then that is OK with them. The Spanish “veto” is a myth.

    • Mmmmmm…..don’t get ahead of yourself fella, there are many locations in Northern Ireland or Northern England that are geographically placed to deal with these tasks. I don’t think that the whole NATO defence hinges on Scotland, if you genuinely believe that then you need to seek professional help……

    • If one looks into the past & origins of the SNP…. well, suffice to say that if it was an enemy of Britain then it was a friend of the SNP.
      What else could one expect from Scotland’s version of Sinn Fein.

      I think the NATO thing is a misnomer, the supposedly socialist SNP wouldn’t be caught dead in that ‘tool of western imperialism’.
      They’d sooner join the “collective security treaty organisation” with Russia & Kazakhstan etc.

      • “Following a vote for independence in 2014, the Scottish Government will notify NATO of our intention to join the alliance and will negotiate our transition from being a NATO member as part of the UK to becoming an independent member of the alliance. Scotland would take our place as one of the many non-nuclear members of NATO. ”

        It’s still SNP Independence policy.

        Personally I think it’s up to the rUK if it wants to

        • A very Sinn Fein move.

          “Don’t like this policy?”
          “Don’t worry, come back in 5 minutes and we’ll have it changed”

          Changing from being fervently anti-NATO to being pro-NATO when it became politically expedient show what a sham the SNP are.

          • It was fiercely debated at the SNP conference (I watched on TV), and 2 MSPs became Independent after it, with a third after the Ref. The vote was close – around 52% I think.

            But that 52% was around the same as an internal poll of members carried out in 2011 I found online, who supported full NATO membership as opposed to the previous policy of Partners for Peace (same as Ireland and Russia).

            As membership changes, so do views.

        • Scotland will be declined as a NATO member state, having an army lead by Mel Gibson wearing kilts with their faces painted blue and white doesn’t rely offer NATO anything……apart from a good laugh..

  9. “Agreed access”? So some nationlists think they are going to hold the UK to ransom over nuclear warheads? Interesting… lets wait and see what happens.
    If the SNP gets its way it will end badly. And thats badly for Scotland… it would be very upsetting for the UK but nothing that couldn’t be economically and socially absorbed very quickly. Somehow I doubt very much the UK will be held to ransom over nuclear weapons. Also I doubt such behaviour would endear a new country to NATO.
    I have met quite a few SNP supporters who base their ideas on fantasy Mel Gibson films! They have been filled with propaganda by bigots. Its a real shame some of them just can’t see how good the UK has it when we work together.
    “Dadsarmy” by-the-way was made up of British people who volunteered to defend the UK, not try and destroy it.

    • Oh dear.

      “4 All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.”

      You seem to be a Braveheart fan. Good movie.

      Yes, there were members of the SNP in the 51st as well as others, and it was a Scot basically started the SAS, with their motto thought to originate from the Scots: “Wha daur meddle wi me?”

  10. The problem with an independent Scotland wanting to rejoin NATO with the SNP in charge as far as i can see it has nothing to do with Spain and is mainly that the SNP is anti nuclear, yet NATO is a nuclear alliance… so what they are basically saying by wanting to rejoin NATO is, we want the reassurance of a nuclear umbrella, we just don’t want to pay for it our have it parked in our backyard… which is to me at least a massive act of hypocrisy!

    unless of course they know this and plan on doing some sort of deal whereby the UK deterrent can stay where it is in return for letting them back in?

  11. I think the SNP need to be in no doubt that the following military consequences of Scottish independence vote will occur.
    1) All MOD shipbuilding on the Clyde will end The first and possibly 2nd type 26 may get built otherwise all those jobs will move south of the border.
    2)) The nuclear deterrent with not be based in an independent country with the rUK being held to ransom by Scotland and having to pay Scotland to use bases uk taxpayers money built.
    3) Covering the GIUK gap will have to fall on Scotlands shoulders, their territory, their responsibility. Good luck with that one. Russia will be emboldened.
    4) all RAf and army basing in Scotland will end, of course Scotland will have its own small but capable armed forces, but not in numerical or qualitative equivalence to current uk armed forces.
    5) SNP must be a deluded bunch when the head of NATO makes a clear declaration on the difficulties of Scotland joining the organisation. I think there is a real risk of Scotland being deliberately left out in the wilderness and rebuked for some considerable time, certainly until the SNP have proven they can run a independent country well enough to not be a liability to their allies.
    That is just some of the military consequences, could go on for ever about the financial consequences but SNP supporting dadsarmy is right this is a military comments site so will stick to that if he can.

    • In reply by number (thanks).

      2). Conventional “wisdom” has it that Scotland is against “WMD”, but polls have proven this wrong. Recently from a Panelbase poll of Scotland taken by Wings, a PRO-Indy website, 46% said that the UK should retain its nukes, with 37% against. But 27% said the UK’s nukes should be in Scotland compared to 46% against. I think that’s both about right. For continued location of nukes in Scotland there’s the NPT, which means in effect that they can’t stay long – and in any case if I was Fallon I’d want them in my country, not someone else’s.

      Scotland as part of the UK has, by the way, paid our fair share (some say more than) of the cost of all bases including Devonport etc. But to relocate it without losing the CASD will take time, and hopefully the ScotGov will be co-operative in that move regards time – 10 years (with slack for delays).

      1). Therefore as I say, if I was the negotiator, while the nukes are in Scotland, the rUK continues to build on the Clyde. Plus cash.

      3). Yes. But there’s a transition and I daresay the rUK won’t really want the Russians flying over Scotland a mile from England, and having their Subs going up and down the Solway or north of Berwick. Hence:

      4). Seems sensible for me for QRA North to also transition. It’s kind of unlikely that from Day 1 of Indy, Scotland would be able to match that ability and capability of QRA North – kit and indeed pilots though some will be Scottish.

      5). NATO. It could go like that as the article asserts, but see 3 – GIS. And indeed your point that Scotland’s forces won’t be as large as the UK’s – though some maintain that at least they would be more focussed on defence of our own maritime waters, EEZ and airspace – plus contributing more to the trans-Arctic.

      As a poster elsewhere said anyway during Indy ref 1, if Scotland doesn’t have fast jet capability, the rUK will do it regardless of permission. Better with permission and location!

      • Why should the uk continue to build on the Clyde? Not that they could anyway, since mod policie and security concerns probit the manufacturer of warship in foreign states.

  12. Oh also forgot to add
    point 6) QRA north can easily relocate to a new airbase built by MOD in Cumbria or Northumberland. Dadsarmy is simply wrong when he says this cannot be done. Did he not see the size and capability of camp bastion in afghan. This base was built rapidly and was utterly effective as a frontline RAF and Army base, similar thing could easily be built in 12-18 months as a stop gap measure until the fully hardened hangars, silos and shelters can be built. RAF leeming was proposed as a supporting atop gap measure. A Eurofighter typhoon travelling at mach 2+ can cover lost ground from leeming in 10mins, also do not forget the SAF should respond to an intruder into airspace so we should all be fine. Our friends in the North will respond and ensure none of those pesky Russians get past them

    • 6). Camp Bastion is like comparing apples to oranges. Nobody doubts the capability of the Engineers. But primarily in the UK it’s a case of ground, ownership, planning permissions, public inquiries, flightpath research – and building according to stringent – civil – safety standards. Unless it’s under war conditions, the MOD is just as subject to civil laws as the rest of us.

      Nearer 15 mins at Mach 2 compared with Lossie. And that’s 15 mins each way, which means 30 mins less duration, and time in combat, if neccessary, as important for intercept as air supremacy. If say it was a case of taking over “escort” of a couple of Tupolevs from the Norweigan Air Force, to escort round so the French can take over, then firstly the Norweigans would have to go further, and it would be kind of handy if the Typhoons could overfly Scotland which would be fine as part of NATO, rather than fly the long way around.

      Which of course makes the case in itself for at least a transitional relationship for Independent Scotland with NATO – as I said before.

  13. It’s a massive gamble being taken by the SNP having a ref part 2 so soon after the last one.. If the Scot’s vote to stay in the UK then the First Minister would probably end up resigning her post plus Scotland would stay in the UK for the foreseeable future. Don’t forget what happened with French Quebec ! But without Scotland in the UK things would be fine, still would be a nation of 60 million people and one of the larger European nations when it’s comes to the size of economy. I think the Scot’s would have more problems after leaving the UK. Also on the whole the Scot’s lean towards the left when it comes to politics, their politicians at times would over spend and build up major debt and being outside the UK they would struggle unless they changed their ways.

  14. Saying all of that i would prefer the Scot’s to stay in the UK, but if they left i would feel fairly relaxed about the whole thing.. I would feel sorry for the Scot’s that wanted to stay in the UK though, they could come down south and join the other million or so Scot’s that live down here.. Big Grin !!!

  15. If ifs and ands were pots and pans there’d be no need for tinkers.

    If Scotland leaves the UK, so be it.
    If the Forces currently in Scotland need to come south, so be it.
    If we down south need to build new bases, so be it.
    The silliness of those in Scotland who think we would be utterly defenceless without them is laughable. In the scheme of things you will become a slight consideration, not a necessity.

    Good luck, you will need it. If things begin not to go well referendum wise, please ask us to hold one here, you’ll be gone in no time flat pal.

  16. Ok UKDJ, pull the pin, throw it in and……..boooooooom! Anyway NATO will have an independant Scotland rejoin NATO quite sharpish in my opinion, simply due to its location poking out into the North Atlantic and the GIUK gap. And, at the moment it does seem that NATO will take any requests to join no matter what capabilities a country has, as itseems more to be an effort at land grab, surround the pesky Russki bear, and keep him contained.

  17. More people in Scotland voted to leave the EU in the referendum than voted for the SNP in the last GE. It’s arrogant for the SNP to think they speak for all Scots.

  18. Turkey is still in Nato, Scotland will have to behave very badly indeed to be chucked out. Followed by an invasion. It will not be allowed to happen.
    There is no particular reason why they shouldn’t continue building naval ships for the RN providing the deal is right, huge chunks of stratigic capability are already being produced abroad, what difference does a bit of welding make?

    • Here we go……….it all boils down to have much dough you can try and extort from us…..”Things can stay as they are if the deal right” and then….” Huge chunks of strategic capability is produced abroad, what difference does a bit of welding make?”
      Blackmail of Westminster is immoral and if it’s just “a bit of welding” done in Scotland, you won’t miss it when we give the contracts to shipyards in England or Ulster. ….will you?

  19. I AM BRITISH.. born in Wales of Cornish parents with a touch of Irish in the DNA melting pot…and I live in England Handy for the six nations and the world cup but also for the nearly four hundred years of friendship,assistance and mutual support our four countries have been party to. We have literally died for each other.
    Scottish Nationalists claim that independence will free them from Westminster. If I were a Scot I might feel the same but to turn your back on centuries of co operation to take a leap into the dark? Everyone now understands the problems of Brexit so I urge all Scots to imagine what tearing the heart out of the United Kingdom would feel like.

    • 100% with you Geoffrey. My best example of what we are is my son-his grandparents on my side both Belfast Ulster Scots. On his mums side his Grandad was Anglo Welsh and Grandma Henderson was born and bred in Edinburgh.We are inextricably mixed. I have no ill feeling toward the many good Scots Nationalists who support Independence such as our friend Dadsarmy above.For me it is of the heart-if the Union breaks then I am spiritually stateless. I am educated and intelligent but there is little by way of logic that can explain why the Union Jack is as close to a religious icon that I can think of and if it faded into history I would die a sad and diminished human.
      Sorry if that sounds a little over the top..

  20. Not sure I am understanding this conversation. If Scotland become independent because of a Labour victory the whole country will already be out of of NATO, the standard Army increased to one Million through national service or something but without bullets or kit. Other parties won’t be rushing to independence without a significant majority of Scots (60%+) in favour, a withdrawal agreement agreed in advance which would need to explain how Scotland intended to defend a third of the country with under 10% of of the resources for the foreseeable future? Our combined security depends upon it.

  21. Or we could just NOT join and get the Irish plan. That is where we don’t pay a thing, but get protection from Russia anyway because none of the rest of NATO would want to see Russia (or China) get a foothold due to simple geographic positioning. The biggest threat to an Independent Scotland is already a NATO member anyway, England, and we’d get no NATO protection, in or out, from English sabotage or hostility so going Irish is probably for the best.

      • You mean literally exactly like the Republic of Ireland? You do remember it exists and shares a land border with the UK? An Independent Scotland would be in exactly the same political position as the Republic of Ireland, who are not NATO members but get all the benefits anyway because of their geographic position.

        • And who protects ROI airspace? That’s right the RAF, and Irish politicians weren’t even aware of it until recently. But if you’re so cowardly and lacking in self-worth that you’d rather the military of another country (the UK) defend “Independent Scotland” for you, then your argument isn’t even worth considering.

  22. Yet another reason why the SNP’s obsession with an independence would actually damage Scotland, Sturgeon and that other lunatic Blackford don’t have Scotland’s best interest at heart, only their own.
    As an Englishman, I urge the Scots to totally ignore Sturgeon and her ridiculous cronies and keep the Union intact. Together we are a strong island nation with shared culture, history and common interests.????????

  23. I guess the answer is, to make democracy work in the UK. To create a relationship between vote share and representation. Currently the SNP don’t need to do any work, the conservatives make the SNP point for them. This NATO ruling will be seen as yet another Tory party allied back door statement. We had them in 2014, with many hastily prepared promises, so we gave benefit of much doubt and look where we end up. Until Westminster, or a federally devolved UK actually represents all aspects of the vote share this will keep happening. Probably get worse… As a Scot I have no issue with UK military, or UK membership. However 6M people being dragged around like some dog on a lead is getting old. Especially when the representation in Westminster doesn’t represent the English voter share either! Deal with the problem, not the symptoms, before it’s too late and folks decide it’s worth the cost regardless of the sabre rattling.

  24. This is a silly discussion. An independent Scotland will receive the protection of the remainder of the UK and NATO whether they like it or not, just the same as Ireland. They won’t have to pay for though.

  25. Here are some more issues that always seem to be ignored…and this is Naval biased due to my back ground but is applicable to all services.

    It has been clearly stated that no warships would be built north of the border but other suppliers of military parts and systems would be seriously hit.

    ITAR and EAR
    ITAR and EAR are a serious issue for all suppliers and contractors working on ANY equipment that contains US equipment which is listed in the Munitions List . The name is misleading as it isn’t just stuff that goes bang it covers everything and anything. Warships that contain US equipment that is on the Munitions List become ITAR. The whole thing…from the keel up to the top of the mast, bow to stern. So no sharing data, drawings, spares , components with anyone who is not ITAR cleared or approved…and that also includes talking about it.

    If you doubt this then research BAe and ITAR fines when they got hit for 400mil by the US Govt for false information regarding exporting equipment that contained US Equipment. ( Typhoon, Grippen, T23 second hand sales etc) They very nearly lost access to the US Military machine which would have ended the company. They will not risk it again. They will simply shut down the facilities north of the border.

    In one simple step ITAR that would mean Faslane , the Shipbuilding yards, the Air Stations, Barracks and the Oil Industry ( Oil industry UAVs and underwater equipment is also covered) would be screwed on day one. All work would stop until clearance was obtained and speaking from experience in dealing with ITAR and EAR clearance it can take months to obtain for an established organisation, let alone one starting from nothing.

    Nuclear Non Proliferation
    Suddenly an independent Scotland would have Nuclear weapons on its soil and not be a treaty member. The civilian nuclear reactors and especially the facilities at Dounreay ( Currently Under decommissioning) and at universities would require IAE oversight to ensure compliance with treaty requirements. That is something like 2 hours notice for an inspection. That would be a nice panic in the Scottish Govt Offices when the request arrives 2 hours after “Indy Hour” and arrive it would. The IAE would want to ensure that security and record keeping was in place from second one of Independence on all facilities and storage areas.

    The Armed Services

    With the naval forces of say 5 patrol boats and 2 x T23 frigates who would man them? Imagine the promotion prospects for personnel with just 2 frigates and a few patrol boats and little shore infrastructure. Join up! See the Scottish isles! And not get promoted for 15 years…that’s a great incentive and similar promotion prospects and advancement would apply to all of the services.
    And again…no spares because of ITAR…No tech manuals, no computer records and you cannot even discuss it.

    The Oil Industry

    Again ITAR would end it on day one and it would take months to get going again. Companies are not going the risk a 100+ Mil fine for non compliance especially smaller suppliers who have a turn over in the 10s of millions a year.

    Discuss!!

    • I do get fed up up with this
      Surely if the SNP want a ref on independence then surly that ref should include the WHOLE of the UK as it will affect everyone in this country as the SNP has been saying the Brexit for which they the majority of Scots voted to remain in the EU is affecting their EU membership

    • While you know more about the RN side than i do, I have said all along, that if they become a seperate independent country, with an independent armed forces, not one single Jock in uniform that i know (or those I work with now in the sand pit) said he would be willing to move to a purely Scottish military. Limited promotion, limited tours and limited interest. Even half the Jock Battalions are made up of none Jocks and Fijian lads.

  26. I don’t believe the SNP gives a fig about NATO. If it did, they would not demand the removal of nuke boats from their country. Anyhow, they will still benefit from the deterrent shield even though the bases will be gone and UK force protection. I have always suggested the majority of Scotland may view independents in a different light, when the issues are laid before them on voting day?

  27. Scotland does have a strategic position in the GIUK gap and I think it would be under severe economic pressure from the USA to maintain the base in Faslane in its current format, I see US boats from time to time using the facility and would bet they would not wish to lose this. The financial pressure from them would be hard for a new country to take as I think the US is our 2nd biggest export nation after the UK.

  28. I don’t really see how this is a positive or a negative to either leave or stay sides.

    I can’t see why Scotland would not be accepted back into NATO, so its more just a technicality.

    • Where’s your sense of drama Steve, you’ve got to pick a side and come up with as many reasons as you can why the other side is WRONG and your side is RIGHT. No need to back up with facts or anything, personal opinion and prejudice is all you need.

      • It’s the same rubbish with brexit, if politicians/media had kept to the facts rather than chasing after shock stories to boost their image, then we would be in a position to be leaving the EU knowing what each option really meant and i suspect we wouldn’t be in this mess of uncertainty (we haven’t fully left yet, hard brexit could still happen at the end of jan or end of December 2020).

        I am not saying the vote would have been any different, but at least we would be comfortable as a nation that we voted based on the facts and not horror stories / fantasy /outright lies (boris bus).

        You would think politicians / media would have learnt better from brexit, but clearly the scots are going to vote on half truths and outright lies. If they want to leave the union then fine, but the media / politicians should do their jobs and inform people of the facts, so they know what leave means positive and negative, since there will a fair bit of both.

        • Steve
          I know what you are saying but the fact is that even after 3 years with all the facts thrown at us the Cons got in on a promise to get it done
          Whats to say re the Scot ref it will make no difference as people will believe what they want to believe

  30. I’m fed up with Scotland. Let’s just move the submarine base to the U.K, then while Scotland is out of NATO seize the opportunity to rain nuclear missiles on them with no repercussions. Once Scotland is a radioactive wasteland we can rebuild Hadrians wall with defences along it, then we can live in peace. Let’s face it Scotland is a pretty irrelevant country no one will miss them.

    • Interesting opinion piece Helions,

      We can guarantee there have been many backroom conversations regarding the post BREXIT reality.

      The EU is facing a crisis of confidence and being forced to show it’s hand regarding its federal (or not) end game.

      When the dust settles, it will be clear that leaving the EU is both possible and ‘perhaps’ a preferred option to further integrated governance to other member nations.

      The EU will face a predicament as to how it should respond, reasoned open discussion and reform … Or take steps to ensure no-one else can leave, by restricting national veto powers, or other means to keep Article 50 on the table, but placed beyond realistic reach…

    • I think it is a bit rich that the SNP ae anti nuke but Wold be happy to join NATO a nuclear alliance so someone else can provide their detergent. Also will an independent Scotland pay 2% of its GDP for its NATO contribution….?

    • It’s an interesting discussion Herodotus, especially with the SNP’s big push for Indy ref 2…

      I hope it’s not going to be like the fast and furious franchise, I can see it now, Indy ref 3 ” this time it’s personal”?

  33. the bigger question is why would Scotland want to be in NATO? Ireland does fine outside it. Russia’s one aircraft carrier is a smoking heap of wreckage so not much going on in the North Atlantic for those that don’t have submarines.

  35. Wow.
    A debate on an Independent Scotland joining NATO has become a rant at each other.
    Its a typical family dinner time.

    That proves England and Scotland love each other too much to let the other go and vis versa…

  36. I’m english. I don’t want Scotland or Northern Island to leave the union. But both those nations voted to remain in the EU, they are being taken out by an english (and by a small margin at the time, welsh) electorate. If this gross act of political self-harm prompts them to think that they aren’t getting listened to and that maybe the time to be politically united with england has come to an end, I can hardly disagree with them.

    It’s impossible to predict how that might play out, it would be such a big and unprecedented change for what was the UK that any and all options could be negotiated or bartered as part of the deal.

    Personally, I just wish I had an irish or scottish parent, at least that way I would have some passport options. I’m ashamed to be english at the moment.

    • You should not be ashamed. As part of the Union we all voted as individuals and for good or ill a decision was made. Nobody really knows if it was a good idea or not. New decade, new arrangement with Europe – we need to make the best of it To sit on our hands and weep is not very British.

    • Northern Ireland ‘might’ one day decide to rejoin with the Republic, that’s quite plausible from an economic and cultural perspective for them to get a majority for reunification.

      It would unfortunately and quite possibly, spark off another round of sectarian violence that might be difficult to shut down with a whole section of society disenfranchised and no way of appeasing them.

      Scotland is a whole different case, it doesn’t make any sense from an economic perspective and making the case to the Scottish people for an independent nation, is a far weaker argument.

      Scotland would be impoverished for a generation and the SNP knows it.

      Don’t be ashamed of being English, democracy is a wonderful thing….

    • There is plenty of reason to feel shame regarding recent events and the decline of this country. Moving on together is the narrative of those in power since it helps absolve them from the shitshow that we are still to face as the realities of this decision hit home over the next year or two.

      I will continue to feel angry and ashamed of this country. If I had an option I would leave it tomorrow as would many of my NHS colleagues. I’ve had it with the exceptionalism, xenophobia and false elitism of this country. We are a small island nation that thinks it is still important in a dramatically changed world. We are about to be hit in the face with the reality of our unimportance and there will be consequences for that which will run on for decades. The one bright spark being that at least it may finally kill off this belief that we are special.

      • Bye IKnowNothing
        what times your flight or train?
        You know that with all the doom and gloom merchants saying that we are doomed your best bet is to go to your land of milk and honey befor all the planes and trains will be barred from going into your promised land
        As i said BYE shut the door on your way out

      • It’s a shame you feel that way, this small island nation as you put it, is the sixth largest economy in the world you know and the second largest in the EU (for the next month anyway).

        Britain has a rich and long history of worldwide trading and many countries eager to trade with us moving forward, try not to get overly fixated on the last 40 years of our European centric history.

        Back in the 1970’s, the great people of Britain voted to join the common market, a free trade group of Nation States.

        Since then, successive governments of both colours have signed us up for ever closer integrated Union. Without bothering to ask the British people if they wished this.

        Well, the re-set button has been pushed and ironically we will be going back to the free trade agreement with Europe the people originally voted for back in the 1970’s!

        The EU is becoming an increasingly insular blinkered institution, drawing it’s powers to the centre, putting up the barricades and progressively stripping the nation states of individual powers.

        Change is a fact of Life, we are embarking on a new outward looking international adventure as a country, something natural to a great inclusive trading nation and democracy, such as ours.

        Embrace the future and the adventure ahead, don’t look back at the past and a happy New year to you.

      • We have been a small nation since the beginning of time. We have always punched above our weight because it was either that or die. It is in our blood.

        Maybe this is the wrong decision I don’t know – time will tell but I’m not going to sit around feeling sorry for myself. If your patients did that they would end up dead.

        Please don’t try to understand why people voted the way they did because I suspect you are way off course if your comments are anything to go by. Everyone had their own reasons. The same will go for Scottish independence if it ever comes to pass.

      • Bye bye, off you go to whatever other country will have you. The grass is very rarely greener, and its always so easy to slag off what you already have, and expect, than to appreciate it as most others dont have that. Try the Middle East, they are always so welcoming pal……….And your avatar name is so very apt, at least you got that right.

  37. Firstly Scotland is not becoming Independent anytime soon. Need to see the results of the Scottish elections and add up the votes for pro-independence parties. If they are getting 60% plus votes then start work on the withdrawal agreement and future relationship and have a referendum. Those documents will highlight an Independent Scotland’s commitment to defence in perpetuity. NATO would have to buy in. We need to do this properly this time.

    Needless to say if pro independence parties are only getting 40-45% of the vote its a waste of time.

  38. This is a pro independence and pro remain blog – let me explain:

    Pro independence – The UK & Scottish armed forces wouldn’t have much choice but to coordinate to a very great degree. Ship building would continue in Scotland for the short to medium term because you can’t just stop a programme put everything on transporters and take it south. Scotland would need to coordinate its air defence and maritime exclusion security with the RN & RAF – they have no choice. The independent Scottish Army would only be able to field, at best, a Battalion battle group so they would operate as now within UK Brigades & maybe a Division. Scottish independence would not result in an independent defence policy.

    Pro remain – They could remove nuclear weapons from the Clyde but in order to secure NATO membership they would have to accept that NATO is a nuclear alliance and that the SACEur can place, deploy and use these weapons under his direction (are you listening Scots Nats because this isn’t accepted by you?). Furthermore, even if there were to be a great deal of coordination with the UK (as stated above) this would only be meaningful if the independent Scottish government committed considerable revenue to defence. Moreover the Scottish Armed Forces would suffer a severe recruitment crisis; Your 20, want a career in defence, do you join the UK armed forces with large formations able to deploy globally or the Scots Forces constricted by scale, imp0rtance and equipment? I think the Scots will find that many recruits will opt for the British Armed Forces anyway.

    Unfortunately, the way the UK is going, these scenarios are going to play out.

  39. I think NATO would value Scotland as a member. But I think the SNP is not coming clean with the Scottish people. NATO will make demands for membership and whilst UK nukes may be allowed to move from Scotland it would be hard to imagine that US and other nuclear capable vessels or aircraft would not be allowed to dock/land in Scotland as part of that deal. I would also think that should things start to take a turn for the worse there would be clauses to allow bombers/vessel to refuel, rearm or even be based on Scottish soil. The reality is the US as a nuclear superpower will call the shots when it comes to Scotlands entry to NATO, not the SNP and that will mean nukes on Scottish soil in some form. The SNP should be either telling the Scottish people that they will not be joining NATO due tot their nuke policy or they will and their will be some sort of nuke deal around that.

  40. I talked to several Scots recently while on vacation in Florida. They were pretty leftist, and want an independent Scotland to be demilitarized, and fully involved in the E.U. The extent of this sentiment in the SNP is alarming. The U.K. could have a socialist state on it’s northern border.

    • Goodness me, a socialist state on our northern border…..how alarming is that! Those socialist Scots….’they hunt in packs and strike fear into the hearts of many’. 🙂

    • It’s pretty much clear that an independent Scotland cannot continue to have a 8% public spending deficit, because they have to choose between one or the other form of monetary responsibility.

      In a situation, where the education system is already in free fall, and other public services including universities are being woefully underfunded.

      This kind of financial affairs can be reviewed in Greece. And the EU is leading a draconic regime there. And, btw, how will Scotland trade with the UK, 80% of trade that will loose most favourable terms?

      The SNP needs IndyRef2 to divert attention from its disastrous record. We should all wait for the next elections in Scotland to happen.

  41. What is this RUK rubbish , If , and its a big if , Scotland became independent then there is no UK there would be Scotland and Greater England ( NI and Wales are not kingdoms ) .
    If GE and Sco wished to remain in NATO then I’m pretty sure that NATO would be happy with that .
    Sco of course has a smaller population and would have a proportionally smaller military, perhaps GE needs to realise that its no longer an empire and come to terms with that.
    So much ‘jock’ bashing on here , let the folk of Scotland make up their own minds and let them decide .

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