More focused targeting of Ukrainian political figures is among the escalation options being examined by Western analysts as they weigh whether President Putin will seek to escalate the war or negotiate, according to a Western official.
Speaking on the war in Ukraine, the official said a great deal of work was under way on what Russia’s escalation options and triggers might be, distinguishing between “vertical escalation, so effectively intra-conflict escalation options,” and “horizontal escalation more regionally.”
Setting out the intra-conflict options, the official listed mobilisation first, describing it as “something that we’re doing a lot of work on here at the moment in terms of what that could look like over the next few months.” Next came “the opening of a new axis, which is only viable actually if they undertake mobilisation,” followed by “increased use of North Korean troops.”
The final option named was the targeting of Ukraine’s political leadership. The official pointed to “more focused targeting of Ukrainian political figures, which hasn’t necessarily been done to date,” setting it apart from the other options as something Russia has so far held back from.
The question underpinning the list, the official said, was one of time. Ukrainian deep strikes were becoming more effective in range, volume and target set, and Russia was struggling to protect the growing number of sites it needed to defend. That was “starting to bring the war home to the average Russian,” the official said, “and therefore that’s the hook into asking the question: does time remain on Russia’s side, and hence whether Putin will seek to escalate or negotiate?”
On North Korea, the official noted the relationship was already deepening in materiel as well as manpower, citing “increased provision of North Korean ballistic missiles to the Russians, the KN-23 Hwasong short range ballistic missile.” North Korean troops were first reported fighting alongside Russian forces in the Kursk region in late 2024, and Pyongyang has since supplied Moscow with artillery ammunition and ballistic missiles under a mutual defence treaty signed in June 2024.
Asked about the prospect of a new front opening from Belarusian territory, the official was firm that it was not in prospect in the near term. “As it stands, in the shorter medium time frame, there is no new axis from Belarus into northern Ukraine,” the official said. “The Russians, there is no shorter medium term intent for them to do that. They don’t have the forces to do it. There are no tangible preparations on the Belarus side of the border for this to happen.”
Belarusian participation was judged equally unlikely. President Alexander Lukashenko “absolutely does not want to go down that road,” the official said, describing “a very delicate balance for him in terms of playing Putin to his desire not to tangibly get involved in Ukraine conflict.” The official concluded that in the short to medium term the answer was no, but added a caveat: “Longer term, particularly if we are in the paradigm of mobilisation, possibly.”
Ukrainian military intelligence official Andriy Chernyak said this month that Kyiv observes no strike groups forming in Belarus, and that while roughly 50,000 Belarusian personnel and Russian support units are stationed there, forces could be transferred within weeks if that changed, according to the Kyiv Post. Russian forces used Belarusian territory to launch the failed drive on Kyiv in February 2022, and the possibility of a renewed northern axis has obliged Ukraine to hold forces in the north throughout the war.
