‘News Snapshots’ is the new fortnightly news podcast from The OSINT Bunker team.
The panel discuss the latest developments in the Israel-Gaza conflict, the shipping incident in the USA and the continued stalemate between Russia and Ukraine as NATO re-arms.
The panel features @DefenceGeek & @osinttechnical.
<iframe src=”https://player.rss.com/osintbunker-snapshots/1416476″ title=”The OSINT Bunker – News Snapshots S1E06 (31st March 2024)” width=”100%” height=”154px” frameborder=”0″ allow=”accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture” allowfullscreen scrolling=”no”><a href=”https://rss.com/podcasts/osintbunker-snapshots/1416476″>The OSINT Bunker – News Snapshots S1E06 (31st March 2024)</a></iframe>
The OSINT Bunker Podcast team, renowned for their in-depth analysis of international affairs, has launched a new series, the ‘News Snapshots’ podcast.
This latest endeavour offers listeners a concise yet thorough overview of current global events, coupled with expert commentary and insights.
The podcast also delves into regional conflicts and shifting geopolitical dynamics, underscoring the OSINT Bunker team’s commitment to offering a holistic view of global events. ‘News Snapshots Podcast’ promises to be an invaluable resource for those seeking a quick yet comprehensive update on world affairs.
This new series is sponsored by the UK Defence Journal.
I’m glad we are having some more Ukraine related discussions here.
The fast evolution of improvised warfare coupled with a small feed of very high western tech missiles is an interesting synthesis.
I don’t believe that the F16’s being provided will be useless. And they will rebalance the air domain coupled with the ASTER-PT and PATRIOT systems.
I do think the shell divergence is being overplayed given the inaccuracy and shorter range of Russian weapons. What is needed are very large numbers of rubbish grade shells to blow potholes in fields together with the right number of precision shells for AS90, Chally2 etc to precisely take out Russian asssets.
Undoubtedly more air defence weapons are needed but does it really make sense to use high performance missiles against Iranian drones? Why are the West unable to supply more radar guided medium calibre weapons in the 40-76mm range – easier to make shells and a brilliant test bed. OK they need to be networked but they can augment the missiles systems.
Ukraine seems to have two overarching problems:
1) Manpower: average age of soldiers at the front is in the mid-40s and casualties are high with very little rotation of troops off the line; it will take months to train and equip new troops in the face of now high frontline attrition. In contrast, Russia seems to have stabilized its manpower situation.
2) Lack of munitions: Russia apparently has about a 5-1 daily fire advantage in artillery and is outproducing the US and NATO Europe combined when it comes to shell production.
These problems are not easily overcome and they create a high risk for Ukraine’s frontline stability over the next several months.
Roy Ukraine has not set conscription for under 27 now reduced to 25 as its is trying to preserve its youth for the future, whilst Russia does indeed fire of more shells its artillery is far less accurate than the modern Western stuff, whilst a substantial increase in 155 and 105mm shells is in the pipeline, I think ukraine need to be given more spare parts barrels etc to keep its arty firing, I also would like to see the west reverse engineer the soviet missile for S300, to keep them in the game. There is no way Ukraine will get the patriots or similar in the numbers that they need. F16 if given the proper long range weapons will help keep the Russian airforce away from the front line areas where can tip the balance with glide bombs
Read an interesting article on Forbes,com which stated that the Estonian Defense Minister had sourced an additional 1M rounds of 152mm and 155mm (and some Grad rockets) for $2.2B, from various European and non-European sources, who would prefer to remain anonymous. There was also an oblique reference to a British initiative to provide up to an additional 500K rounds. There are apparently a significant number of states w/ ammunition caches ‘in the basement’ that are willing to part w/ the same for the right price and a non-attribution contract clause. Evidently it pays to know many people in low places and the art of creative financing. 😁😉
Forbes.com (6 Apr 24)…🙄
Yes, I saw that. Seems that they will try to source them from various countries globally.
I think you give Russia far too much credit, they have big problems with both manpower and material but make huge efforts to shift the narrative though manipulation of social media and western proxies. The story of Ukraine ‘running out of men’ is a consistent Russian propaganda trope.
Ukraine has only conducted a limited draft, and they get massive external support with equipment repairs, logistics, training and medical care. Russia meanwhile has critical manpower shortages in all of these areas, not only on the front, but in Russia itself.
Ukraine’s superior accuracy and range mostly compensates for numerical disadvantage in ammunition. But Ukraine themselves don’t highlight this, because they (sensibly) want to be seen as ‘needing’ more aid.
Russia’s own manpower is critically short, shown by both a total lack of rotation and continuing inability to dislodge the Belgorod incursions. A glaring weakness which again they try to spin as a new front to take Kharkiv, and talk of a pending massive mobilization, which they will obviously struggle to train and equip.
IMO Ukraine’s best strategy, for now, is to attrit Russia as rapidly as possible via a purely defensive posture in the East, while attempting to widen the front to the North, because this prevents Russia from sufficiently concentrating forces to capitalize on any breakthrough.
Which seems to be exactly what they are doing.
It’s important that Ukraine needs substantial support and may she get it an soon as. But, there’s no need to publicise the whole bloody shopping 🛒 list through the media! Use some smarts. Maybe be creative. Maybe they already are? Great, my rant. The adversary doesn’t need to know what’s coming. They just need to be on the receiving end and get out of Ukraine’s backyard! Strength to Ukraine 🇺🇦, its forces, it’s people and president!
Proof if proof was needed that today artillery is king. For too long the RA has gone without modernisation with SA90s having to soldier on with outdated guns and no heavy calibre towed field guns unlike in the 80s. The Archer and possibly an urgent procurement of a SA90 replacement would make a considerable improvement. The MBT has had a mixed performance profile in Ukraine, which I’m sure has tank designers scratching their heads? In retrospect, land mines, artillery, and suicide drones have helped to bring about this WW1-like stalemate, with no obvious technological breakthrough in sight to change the status quo.
Artillery is the king. In Ukraine. Would it be the same in a conflict involving NATO?
Doubt it.
Air superiority would mean that we wouldn’t get bogged down in an attritional artillery conflict against Russia. It’s all about playing your battle plan not the enemies. The West just needs to ensure that it has enough precision guided munitions to pick Russia’s army apart should it ever come to direct conflict.
Having said that I do agree with comments on here that the British army needs to reinvigorate it’s artillery arm with more SPGs and MLRS systems. Wheeled or tracked shoot and scoot is the key learning point from the Ukraine war.
The RA has been the poor relation for decades, even back to Labours time. Yes, that needs to change.
You are right, MLRS has been one of the stars in terms of effectiveness. Sad to see some of our systems moulder in scrap yards! However, defence is getting some considerable press at the moment with leading figures calling for increased military spending and possible preparation for war with Russia. This is encouraging news as it will force the issue so Labour will find it more difficult to cut defence spending like so many governments before it. However, I believe it will take a seismic event in Ukraine to set things in motion.
From what I can see, drones have been the game changer in Ukraine.
If an AFV or infantry group dares to move it is soon picked off by an FPV drone.
Plus observer drones are being used to call in artillery strikes.
So I think technically we need to concentrate on developing anti-drone ECM and small-caliber countermeasures.
The UK needs to abandon the land mine ban because it makes Princess Diana’s ghost cry or whatever. It is quite obvious that in land warfare, you must be able to slow or stop movement of the enemy. Area denial weapons are key to this. Even guided shells can’t hit a moving target reliably. A bunch of vehicles stuck wondering where they can move can be splatted by even the cheap, dumb shells.
While you are right about Diana’s campaign that was for anti personnel mines and cluster bombs etc that carried them.
We are still very much in the anti tank mine game.
At the time we were a not at all amused facing off the Warsaw pact and having a defensive method withdrawn😡
With Russia’s advances and occupation Ukrainian forces should know exactly where they all are and can hopefully with new resupplies can regain their country back in a very targetted manner.
Russia can replace men and most equipment faster then Ukraine and is has way more ammo, i have no doubt Ukraine man for man are way better and can hold the line.
Not sure if they get back lost land they simply do not have the numbers or ammo, its more a 1915 situation with both sides not strong enough to end things. The summer offensive by Russia will decide things, if it looses steam then its stalemate.
Yes, that is the problem, and we also have to take into account Russia is getting supplies from Iran, China, and North Korea all of which have a large military-industrial capacity.
Right now, it appears that this autocratic alliance can easily outproduce us and recruit reserves much more quickly than we can, it is a dire wake-up call to our politicians.
If we get drawn into a war with Russia, (with the possibility of Iran kicking off too) it will be a long war of attrition.
So we need to ramp up our % of GDP on defence and reinvest in manufacturing, stop procrastinating, and start doing it now.
We all know that is not going to happen, the current Prime Minster is not at all interested in defence. To fix the lost manufacturing would take years. Defence spending will creep up but in real terms as the Nuclear deterrant has been added to the core Defence budget we spend less on kit it just fiddling the figures to say its above 2pc of GDP. Where really its about 1.7pc can be spend on defence its self
“To fix the lost manufacturing would take years”
Indeed, this reflects decades of complacency and lack of political will. I think it can be done but not in time to mitigate any conflicts we will be fighting in the near future.
Needed to do it back in the summer. Need a new ammo plant in S. Wales next to the Steel works. In WW1 we were able to out produce Germany and with the French out produced them about 2:1.
Give the French credit they were standardising on 155mm. Also agree we need a lightweight counter to drones.