John Healey MP and Al Carns MP have shown themselves to be that rare thing in current UK politics: politicians with a conscience and with values. They showed that when they resigned from their respective positions in the UK Ministry of Defence over the complete mess the UK Defence Investment Plan (DIP) is turning into.
I’m not going to go into detail about the DIP and the back and forth on it. There are plenty other people doing that. I would, however, like to focus on the broader point of where the UK wants to be (and is) when it comes to leadership on defence matters.
In short, the UK needs to decide one way or the other. The time of fudging and pretending through smoke and mirrors has gone. We are in a world where we need to make a choice. A difficult choice at that. Are we a leader or a follower?
The UK likes to see itself as a ‘soft power’ leader. Look at the focus on Net Zero and climate change for example. It allows us to take the moral high ground and, sometimes to be frank, be seen as preachy. So it’s leadership that is not always effective. However, it is the sort of leadership that doesn’t really cost a lot in terms of capital and other expenditure. Ultimately though soft power might be good, it doesn’t physically defend and protect the UK.
Which leads us to the fact that the current Government (and its predecessors) still want the UK to be seen as a reliable and effective partner in defence. Something which has, arguably, been reducing ever since the end of the Cold War, and certainly in the last ten years.
But if we are to be taken seriously then we need to spend cold hard cash, and that means we have to decide where that money comes from. There are always myriad demands on Government. That’s why it is tough to govern. But ultimately it needs to decide what the priorities are and what it wants to UK to be: a leader or a follower.
The first role of a government is to defend its citizens. There are, of course, significant differences as to the levels you might want to do this to. But if the UK continues to want to be seen as a strong and leading partner then the reality is the cost will be more.
If the Government is happy to sit back and let others take the lead then we can spend less. But, if that is the case, then we need to accept that we are no longer the power Government claims we are, or indeed the population seems to think we are. The bottom line is we can no longer rely on, or hide behind, the US when it comes to defence. President Trump has, rightly, called all of us out on our failure to spend enough on defence. If he has only been right on one thing it is this. NATO countries (including the UK) have not paid their way. And, as I’ve said before, the ‘Special Relationship’ really isn’t that special to the US.
What this all means is that we therefore need to team up with like-minded partners such as members of the EU, Canada (which has launched a large defence spending process), Australia and New Zealand.
But whereas before we could sit behind the US and not spend as much as we should have done, if we are to play a role in this modern era and alliance then we will not be able to do that. It is going to cost us money, and significant amounts of it. We can no longer freeload. The question is are we willing to pay that money and, if so, what are we going to stop spending on instead?
There are many different views and comments on this. Some based more on reality than others. But people like Lord Robertson and Tony Blair have made some extremely good points which need to be considered and which cannot be ignored. Well, they can be ignored, if the UK accepts that is no longer the power it thinks it is or seemingly wants to be.
So, if we want to be taken seriously we need to pony up the cash. Are our politicians willing to do that? Are they willing to take the flak from other areas where spending has been reduced? Or are they happy with the idea that we should play second fiddle to other countries such as France?
Because whether you like it or not that is the reality: we either spend and lead, or don’t and follow.
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I don’t buy the statement “politicians with a conscience and with values”.
Time will tell, but my money is on them already looking to jump ahead of Burnham getting voted in, so they could be considered for his governmental roles, and took the opportunity to do so. I don’t buy they weren’t aware of the value before last week, as it’s been discussed for months. I suspect it Starmer was more secure in his role they would have stayed .
Saying that they have avoided making a big scene out of it and mainly played it professionally so some credit to them. Plus if the reporting is true the amount is insufficient to achieve the SDSR targets.
Unfortunately Labour winning in Makersfield is far from a far gone conclusion. The may have just gifted Reform a seat and a lot of momentum .
Either way Starmer needs to go , defence coming a distant second to net zero, hS2 and an out of control welfare budget is naive to say the least.
Seems highly likely they will win, the reform candidate choice was a big mistake, too much negative baggage. Not the first time this has happened. Plus restore is splitting their vote. If for some strange reason they don’t win, then rainer will no doubt challenge Starmer before the year is out. Either way his days are numbered unless something major happens.
Statements of the obvious I would have thought- but clearly beyond the wit of the current Cabinet. Realistically, the new Defence Secretary will shortly have to confront the same obstinacy as his predecessor (if Starmer was ever going to buck his ideas up he would have done so before the by-election), so it will be interesting to see if Jarvis will also have the necessary strength of character to resign rather than trying to sell more ‘smoke and mirrors’ to the public.
Dan ‘I’m going to get more money for defence’ Jarvis has already been told he isn’t getting it so where does that leave him?
It leaves him cutting things out of the DIP or pushing them far out to 2035 and beyond when we will supposedly reach 3.5%. It will be a fudge, but allow them to claim they are enacting the SDR and meeting NATO targets.