Stuart Crawford. a defence expert has claimed that an independent Scotland would likely host Trident for 20 years if Scotland left the UK because of a lack of alternative sites.

Stuart Crawford was a regular officer in the Royal Tank Regiment for twenty years, retiring in the rank of Lieutenant Colonel in 1999. During his military career he attended both the British and US staff colleges and undertook a Defence Fellowship at Glasgow University. He now works as a political, media, and defence and security consultant in Edinburgh and is a regular commentator on military and defence topics in the print and broadcast media. He has also advised the SNP on defence matters in the past.

Crawford said the lack of an alternative sites means Trident carrying submarines based at Faslane would take 20 to 25 years to remove. He said: “An independent Scotland cannot really sensibly insist on removal of the UK’s nuclear deterrent from its waters in the short to medium term.

Therefore some pragmatic solution has to be adopted. The pragmatic solution is, in my opinion, to rent the Faslane nuclear facilities to the rest of the UK until such time as some other arrangement can be brought about.

If there is any chance of Scotland becoming an independent country in 2021, it would take the UK government at least 20 years to build the equivalent to the Faslane/Coulport facilities elsewhere in the UK.” 

Mr Crawford added:

“It is the most emotive defence-related issue in the whole independence debate. The difficult thing for the SNP leadership would be selling this to the foot soldiers. The broad base of the independence movement is very much grounded in the CND movement. I am completely sympathetic to that.

The SNP Government might look at this plan and say it doesn’t deliver our promise to remove Trident, but it would be the biggest bargaining chip that an independent Scotland could have.”

An SNP spokesperson said:

“The SNP does not support Trident either as part of the UK or in an independent Scotland. We have continually opposed the renewal of Trident at the cost of conventional and cyber defences and continue to do so.

In 2014 the Scottish Government set out a responsible approach to the removal of Trident from Scotland and in the event of independence securing the speediest and safest withdrawal of nuclear weapons would be a priority for an SNP Scottish Government.”

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David Taylor
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David Taylor

One wonders if the SNP would support CASD if submarines were built on the Clyde?

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

That’s funny, but there’s no submarine building skills on the Clyde, though some of the BaE workers did apparently go down to Barrow to help speed up Astute. It was difficult enough getting the skills at Barrow.

David Taylor
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David Taylor

if
ɪf/Submit
conjunction
1.
introducing a conditional clause:
synonyms: on condition that, provided (that), providing (that), presuming (that), supposing (that), assuming (that), on the assumption that, allowing (that), as long as, given that, with the provision/proviso that, with/on the understanding that, if and only if, contingent on, in the event that, allowing that
“if the weather is fine, we can walk to the village”

dadsarmy
Guest
dadsarmy

Hence my “That’s funny”.

David Taylor
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David Taylor

🙂

As we know, if our nuclear boats were built up there they would be all for it.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Francis Tusa of RUSI reckoned it could be done in 2 years, Hammond said it would take a minmum of 10 years, I think it could be done in 10 years, maybe a few months MOD project over-run. Crawford (an army not navy guy) also said the rUK would have to pay an estimated £1.1 billion a year. It could be more, but not I think in terms of cash, but defence resource barter, like logistics, detection, communication, control etc, to allow a farily leisurely transition without weakening the overall defences of rUK + iScotland while Scotland had its first… Read more »

maurice10
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maurice10

In a recent blog, I suggested a 30-year lease and that should be a minimum. 20-years does not allow enough time to make far-reaching plans, which are essential for such an important base. The 5-year limit was a nonstarter as proposed by the SNP, and would have meant an immediate drawdown of the base. The problem with 20 years it only allows for 15 years of free operations, as 5 of those will be drawdown. The whole issue is worthy of a separate referendum by the Scotish people to establish how they feel about the long-term future of the base.

james harrington
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james harrington

An independent Scotland should pay a defense or protection fee for the deterrent provided by the English, Welsh and NI MOD. The financial loss and economical impact of Scotland leaving Faslane alone will be massive to the rest of an independent Scotland. No one asked them to leave, no one wanted them to go, most English love Scotland, but the constant complaining and threatening to leave has used up so much good will and kinship we feel for Scotland that many of the “english” no longer care about being united with them in a Kingdom. Its going to cost them… Read more »

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

James, you could say the same about the countries in the EU, who could also share the cost of France’s deterrent. I have some sympathy with the idea, as we all shelter under the UK and France’s nuclear umbrella. Or the non-nuclear countries could provide more conventional defence pro rata. As it is, we all know where the EU average on % of GDP sits.

james harrington
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james harrington

Yes, very true. I think the Uk is in many ways quite generous, compared to others, over a wide range of differing protections it provides, not just the deterrent and are conventional armed forces. We provide significant security to many countries both direct and indirect, from policing the skies in E Europe to counter piracy. Several of these countries which benefit from our international and European posture are the ones who have rebuffed our requests for support in an exit agreement with the EU. Im no longer so tolerant of users and abusers. International aid is another which is constantly… Read more »

Martin
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Martin

Hi James, just wanted to post this out as you may not be aware but it’s statements like yours that make people in Scotland want to leave. While you profess to love Scotland, your statement suggest otherwise. At some point people like your self have to realise that you are actually part of the problem. People in Scotland voted to stay in the UK, actually people in Scotland are the only people in history to ever vote to be in the UK (excluding the Maltese) if you keep bringing up the referendum and making silly statements like you did you… Read more »

Grubbie
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Grubbie

How long it takes the rest of the UK to arrange alternative arrangements is irrelevant,it would be a matter for the Scottish people to decide.

Richard Sidaway
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Richard Sidaway

There’s not a great deal that the people of Scotland could do about it really, an independent Scotland would be entirely subservient to its larger more wealthy neighbor.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Not really Grubbie, and I say that as a long-time Independence supporter. It would be wrong for Scotland to unilaterally disarm the rest of the UK of its nuclear deterrent by being unreasonable like “Get it out of here by midnight on Independence Day”.

We’d still want to be good neighbours, going our different ways.

Lewis
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Lewis

And yet it’s pointless debate because they’ve had their vote and decided to stay in the UK. Cobtinues discussion on it is the rambling of deluded Nats who no longer even have a mandate, they’re a minority party who scraped into power yet pretend they talk for all Scots.

OP, please stop giving these people oxygen.

DavyP
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DavyP

The Parliament at Holyrood currently has a Pro Indy majority and also passed a vote on a mandate to hold another referendum should there be a material change in circumstances….I think the Brexit vote falls into the category…

John Clark
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John Clark

I’ve always found it curious that the SNP seem to be so self destructive and he’ll bent on destroying their once impressive voting base.

When you consider they did the unthinkable and unseated Labour in Scotland, an amazing achievement in itself, they are now in the process of welcoming them back in, as they turn off the Scottish public in steadily increasing numbers by continually banging on like a broken record….

I

Ron
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Ron

I am a bit confused with this, yes it is possible that if Scotland voted yes to independence Faslane might have to close. So here is where I am having some trouble, first as far as I am aware circa 9,000 jobs in the area depend on the RN base at Faslane, how will they be replaced if the base closes. My main issue is that with this constant threat by the SNP why does the MOD constantly spend millions in upgrading Faslane or for that matter Clyde shipbuilding. There are several locations down South that could accommodate the nuclear… Read more »

David Taylor
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David Taylor

Better they lose their jobs definitely than not die in an improbable nuclear holocaust. War is peace. Freedom is slavery. Socialist logic.

David E Flandry
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David E Flandry

Right, per the Ministry of Truth. Anyone disagreeing, report to Room 101.

Callum
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Callum

I imagine the primary reason is because if any aspect of the British government are shown to be preparing to pull out of Scotland, the SNP will try and weaponise it against the union. Combined with the facts that no one in government WANTS an independent Scotland, and that a majority of Scots do still want to be part of the UK, its understandable why no one is making preparations for it. Also, you suggest Milford Haven as a replacement, but its not exactly practical. There are no Royal Navy facilities even remotely close, its already an incredibly busy port… Read more »

Marc
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Marc

Falmouth is a perfect spot imo.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Ron, Scotland would still need some sort of Navy, and the SNP plan was to have Faslane as the base, also as the overall defence HQ. Not an unreasonable idea, for the same reason Faslane was selected for the SSBNs. Most of those jobs by far are non-nuclear, and some people say that the nuclear ones are largely not people based in Scotland. Very possibly true. So with a base you need guards, gardeners, maintenance, logistics, purchasing, dredging and so on – and defence. As well as the actual sailors. For the size of a navy – look at Denmark,… Read more »

Lee1
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Lee1

I think the SNP massively overestimate the level of spending they would be capable of in an independent Scotland. They currently blame all their issues on Westminster (Which is funny when they are talking about the NHS for which Scotland is fully responsible for). If Scotland were independent then its government would no longer have these excuses. Oil revenue is also only likely to fall. I truly wish the SNP would just crawl back into its cave but loud obnoxious people always tend to get the headlines unfortunately. The UK is better off with Scotland and Scotland is better off… Read more »

Gunbuster
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Gunbuster

Devonport would be the only quick and viable option. But if it could be authorised Falmouth could also be an option. Deep water port, A&P next door and its just down the road from Devonport. Falmouth could host the boats whilst the majority of maintenance is conducted in Devonport but it would need the X and Z berth designation to be provided first. Currently there are only a few ports authorised to take nuclear boats. Location and number of berths. For conducting maintenance Faslane 8 Devenport and Plymouth Sound 16 Rosyth 11 List of the locations of Z berths Falkland… Read more »

Map
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Map

We would protest any stationing of nuclear submarines in Falmouth, Cornwall. We put up with enough blown in rubbish now!

Map
Guest
Map

We don’t want nuclear submarines in Falmouth. We get enough rubbish blown down our way as it is. I can assure you of mass demonstrations and objections if this was attempted.

Marc
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Marc

Not by the shipyard workers and businesses that depend on them i can assure you and where is all this rubbish blowing down from?

Martin
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Martin

It’s worth noting that 8000 of those jobs are actually forces personnel rather than jobs in the local economy and also scotland has nearly 3 million jobs so 1000 or even 9000 is not much of a difference.

Peter Crisp
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Peter Crisp

It doesn’t take a genius to realise that building nuclear subs is hard and building a base to build them would take quite a long time.
I’m not sure any Scottish people would expect the UK to just get out immediately and somehow have a base ready for suck complex machines when one doesn’t currently exist.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Some would, but they are the more extreme ones. I don’t mean that in a bad way, people are entitled to their views, and they view the nuclear deterrent as an abomination, but they are the minority. I think many would accept some sort of financial deal while the rUK relocated, and the more time the rUK has to relocate, in itself, the cheaper. With a lease, it would be a balance against paying per year for a lesiurely relocation, to paying more for the relocation itself if hurried. Like I say, though a cost value should be put on… Read more »

Lee1
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Lee1

The problem with Brexit is that no one really knows the real progress of negotiations. The press will print what seems sensational and Both sides will be using this to put pressure on the other. Behind closed doors it is entirely possible that the negotiations are going smoother than they seem. (Although I am not pretending that they will be perfect in any way and some of the issues in the press may well be true).

Marc
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Marc

Hahahaha that idiot PM and her cohorts wouldn’t know a negotiation if it fell on them.

Harold
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Harold

The sooner the better. We don’t need nuclear weapons in Scotland.

Lee1
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Lee1

Well it is not going to happen as Scotland needs to leave the UK and the SNP is getting weaker and weaker as the people of Scotland realise they have one thing on their minds and are pretty useless at everything else.

Harold
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Harold

Remember, it’s not only SNP members and supporters who call for independence. Brexit will spur on Scotland’s rightful destiny as a small independent country.

Steve M
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Steve M

The polls at the moment at least, don’t agree:

Last 3:

Yes: 41% (all 3) No: 53%, 50%, 53%

Lee1
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Lee1

I am not sure how that would play out for Scotland. I am not sure Belgium, Spain and France would react to an Independent Scotland joining the EU immediately. They have their own issues with Independence calls and they have not allowed referendums like the UK did. Scotland would also have far less sway in the EU without the clout of the rest of the UK. It will basically be a tiny insignificant fish in a sea full of sharks.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

A poll of polls using the last result from 4 different polling companies puts it at Yes 46.0%, No 54.0%, eliminating don’t knows.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Lee1 “It will basically be a tiny insignificant fish in a sea full of sharks.”

Not so, in the Councils Scotland would have 1 vote, same as Malta, Luxembourg, France and Germany, and all the rest. Currentl Scotland has 0 votes, we do not ahve our own representation.

In terms of Qualified Majority, the 13 smaller states can block the legislation of the 13 larger states.

In the EU Parliament Scotland would have 13 MEPs instead of the current 6 MEPs. All of whom would likely be part of one or more of the 8 Groups or the 1 Non-attached Independents.

Lee1
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Lee1

As part of the UK, Scotland had the use of vetoes. That will no longer be the case. Plus yes you will be part of larger groups but that means you are just at the whim of other countries, so instead of the UK you will be over-ruled by a number of other countries instead, countries where you have no power in their parliaments and also probably have vastly different needs.

Scotland likes to pretend it does not have any power in the UK but in effect it has disproportionate power and often gets disproportionate funding etc.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Lee1 “Also you know full well which vetoes I was talking about. ” No, I don”t know what you’re talking about. From the EU itself: “The members of the European Council are the heads of state or government of the 28 EU member states, the European Council President and the President of the European Commission.” … Decision-making process The European Council mostly takes its decisions by consensus. However, in certain specific cases outlined in the EU treaties, it decides by unanimity or by qualified majority. If a vote is taken, neither the European Council President nor the Commission President take… Read more »

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Lee1, the SNP got 37% in the snap General Election in 2017, and 35 seats out of 59 – a clear majority of Westminster seats by 35-24.

Latest Yougov shows “Voting intention (Scotland): SNP 41%, Con 26%, Lab 25% (1-5 Jun)”

and you think the SNP are getting weaker and weaker?

Lee1
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Lee1

What was its election results before that?

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Lee1: “As part of the UK, Scotland had the use of vetoes. That will no longer be the case. ” As a full member in our own right, Scotland as one of the EU-28 would have a veto for any Council decision requiring unanimity, same as the UK has, same as Malta – or Belgium as we saw fairly recently. And it’s transparently clear the SNP have NO power at Westminster, as they are overruled every time, even when there were 56 out of 59, they still couldn’t get Full Fiscal Autonomy despite putting in two amendments to the Scotland… Read more »

Lee1
Guest
Lee1

That is because they were being petulant children so had no support from anyone else.

Midlands MPs also are outnumbered as are Northern MPs etc. That is democracy. Different parts of Scotland probably feel the same about the Scottish parliament. Should each and every individual in the UK become independent countries as a result… After all I don’t get everything I want all the time!

Also you know full well which vetoes I was talking about. Scotland would not have those. You know… the ones that work even when the vote does not need unanimity…

Steve M
Guest
Steve M

To be fair the SNP don’t exactly do themselves many favours at Westminster, constantly griping about ships that couldn’t even be built on the Clyde and staging dramatic walkouts for the cameras. Why not instead use the influence gained by being members of the various committees (including the Defence Select Committee) instead? I rarely if ever hear about that.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Steve M
The reason you don’t hear about the SNP playing an active and constructive part in Westminster and its committees on the news, is because that would show them in a good light.

Think about it, do a bit of research to see what they do do (like Hansard), and then think about WHY you don’t hear about it.

Current Westminster voting intentions in Scotland is 41%.

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Lee1 – see my new reply which I mis-threaded, about how the Councils actually work.

Dettingen
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Dettingen

It might take 2 or 20 years. What would matter is the decision of a legally independent and sovereign Scottish government. If they say go now, you must go now. So the key question for a UK government is – what leverage do I have to retain Faslane for as long as I need to transition somewhere else? Everything else is second order

Mdpepa
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Mdpepa

this whole thread has attracted the loons!…including me… interesting to hear the same conspiracy trumpeted around that somehow everything good for snp is censored, that basically what ever they do shows contempt for scotland by the English, but never any proof. I don’t think most UK people think that way or would want to loose a integral part of our national identity. It’s a shame and somewhat revealing about voters for SNP, who believe they are often being racially discriminated against as part of this huge conspiracy to keep them from realsing a huge oil soverign wealth fund and living… Read more »

dadsarmy
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dadsarmy

Mdpepa It doesn’t really matter if readers believe me when I say that it’s only bad news about the SNP is reported, it can help make people aware of the negative reporting they get, and either check for themselves using Hansard and the voting records of MPs, watch the parliamentary channel occasionally, or just keep an open mind rather than letting opinions be formed by the media. That sort of thing goes for just about anything of course, the EU or Brexit, one party versus another, the deterrent versus more on conventional defence, the Type 45 is useless compared to… Read more »

Mdpepa
Guest
Mdpepa

So you definitely know the SNP do loads of good, universally of through the SNP tinted spectacles? If they do and are a more organised party, they at least two the same line, why don’t they just start to cater for the north of England aswell?

Totally agree with the NLP aspect, it’s very clever, however most people need education to spot this, or a modicum of intelligence and time to bother. Which I doubt the majority have, as Noam Chomsky put forward; they are all too busy watching sport.

We need a ministry of truth department…MoTD

dadsarmy
Guest
dadsarmy

“why don’t they just start to cater for the north of England as well?”

The “S” in SNP stands for “Scottish”. A party to represent the North of England, and I agree it needs it, would be called the NENP, or similar.

4thwatch
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4thwatch

So let’s see now. No referendum for another 200 years. That puts it 2220 at the earliest.
This neverendum talk is idle gossip at best.

Dave Coull
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Dave Coull

Stuart Crawford’s claim ““An independent Scotland cannot really sensibly insist on removal of the UK’s nuclear deterrent from its waters in the short to medium term” sounds like the sort of thing spouted when it was proposed that, for example, slavery should be abolished. Of course those with a vested interest won’t think it “sensible”, and of course they will want a very long “transition”. So what? It’s up to the people of Scotland to decide what is “sensible”. All the evidence suggests a majority of Scots are against Trident, and the people of an independent Scotland won’t be prepared… Read more »

Lorna McAllister
Guest
Lorna McAllister

It is not Scotland’s Problem to find an alternative base. The order to remove all WMDs and all nuclear materials from Scottish territory would have to be complied with by England and the USA. We would have a law which disallowed any nuclear weapons or materials from our land or Scottish waters. Other countries have similar laws which are adhered to by all countries.
A minimum time for transfer would be set by the Scottish Government. The plan for removal already exists. It is available on SCND and Scot.gov websites.

Dave Coull
Guest
Dave Coull

Another thing which politician/right-wing parliamentary candidate Stuart Crawford doesn’t seem to have considered is the sheer impracticality of his scenario. Leslie Thomson writes “I have already been given assurances from Independence supporters, who own boats, that any attempt to retain Faslane will see them blockade the entrance to the Gare Loch, so nothing can go in or out. What could the supporters of Trident do? Sink unarmed vessels? Or even just forcibly remove them, despite those vessels being the property of citizens of an independent country?” Either of these actions against unarmed protesters would be an act of war. Also,… Read more »

John Burr
Guest
John Burr

Easy. Give them a reasonable rent, and double it every year!