While Turkey’s government is struggling to deal with mass protests at home (after Istanbul’s mayor Ekrem Imamoglu was imprisoned), in foreign affairs it is in an increasingly strong position as a key power broker in deals with Europe, the US and Russia.
At the crossroads between Asia and Europe, Turkey is strategically important to just about everyone, and is emerging as a clever negotiator.
Since the early 2000s, Turkey has relied on a foreign policy approach that emphasised cooperation instead of competition. Economic ties were a priority, which helped Turkey steadily improve its relationships with Russia, Iran and Syria.
While remaining a part of Nato and a major trading partner with the European Union, Turkey views its ties with Russia, Ukraine, China and countries in the Middle East as equally important. Turkey has shown that it will work with whatever government benefits its interests, and has taken advantage of regional conflicts to be a convenient ally when needed.
At the same time, Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has no qualms about confronting both friends and rivals equally, giving it strategic flexibility.
Rocky relationship with Russia
Turkey is Russia’s second biggest trading partner. Ankara continues to rely on Russian gas and banking networks, doing over US$60 billion (£46.3 billion) in trade annually with Moscow. The Turkish relationship with Russia improved dramatically in 1995 when Russia stopped supporting the Kurdish Workers Party (PKK) and Turkey stopped supporting Chechen rebels.
Since then, Turkey has maintained a functional relationship with Russia, while never being pliant to Moscow.
Turkey was critical of Russia setting up military bases in Syria, in Tartus and Khmeimim and as it controls the airspace in northern Syria it also has the ability to restrict Russian access. Ankara has also used its military presence in Idlib, in northern Syria, to check Russian influence in the past. Turkey’s drone offensive in Idlib in 2020 helped the Syrian opposition and pushed back Syrian government and Russian-backed activity in the north-west.
The importance of the Black Sea
The Black Sea is another area of competition where Turkey has emerged with the upper hand during the war in Ukraine. Russia aimed to exercise control over the Black Sea, even seizing several Ukrainian ports which affected global grain supply in 2022.
But Turkey negotiated the release of millions of tonnes of grain and has ensured the safety of shipping routes through the Black Sea by enforcing the Montreux Convention. This 1936 agreement granted Turkish control over the shipping route between the Black Sea (through the Bosporus Strait, the Sea of Marmara and the Dardanelles, through which hundreds of millions of tons tonnes of cargo pass each year) and the Mediterranean.
Citing the agreement, Turkey also restricted Russian reinforcements into the Black Sea, which has restricted Russian naval power considerably. Though Turkey has not levied sanctions on Russia and has kept its revenue streams open, Turkey also does not accept the Russian annexation of Crimea. With more than 5 million Turks claiming to have Crimean Tatar roots, Crimea has both strategic and historical importance to Turkey.
Yet, Turkey maintains communication with Moscow (and Erdoğan and Vladimir Putin are “dear friends”). Complicating this “friendship” is the fact that Turkey also supports Ukraine, supplying it with Bayraktar TB2 drones, heavy machine guns, laser-guided missiles, electronic warfare systems, armoured vehicles and protective gear.
Ultimately, Turkey wants Ukraine to remain independent in order to check Russian naval power in the Black Sea. As such, Turkey is likely to work with Nato to ensure that Ukraine is not defeated.
To that end, Turkey is willing to contribute peacekeepers to a post-ceasefire settlement, under the right conditions.
Meanwhile, Turkey has used the Ukraine conflict to diversify its supply routes for energy (relying more on suppliers from the Caucasus region and central Asia), to reduce its dependence on Russia. Turkey is in a strong position, especially with the discovery of gas reserves in the Black Sea and eastern Mediterranean. Ankara aims to become an energy hub facilitating the transit of gas from the Caucasus, central Asia and Russia to Europe through the Trans-Anatolian natural gas pipeline.
Turkey and Syria
Turkey’s relationship with its neighbour Syria has also been pragmatic and shrewd. Turkey was able to pursue rapprochement with Syria in 2005, when Bashar al-Assad became the first Syrian president to visit Turkey since Syria gained its independence in 1946.
But while Erdoğan maintained a relationship (to prevent Syria from moving even closer to Iran), he ultimately chose to abandon this relationship when it no longer suited him. He hosted anti-Assad figures in Turkey from time to time, and created a safe zone on its border which housed displaced Syrians and armed fighters. He gave rebels the go-ahead to oust Assad in 2024.
Just as the war in Syria provided Turkey with opportunities, so too has the conflict in Ukraine. Ankara has strengthened its bargaining position and pushed for greater diplomatic and economic concessions from western allies. Turkey is taking advantage of the US’s retreat from Nato to push for closer cooperation with Europe.
Turkey also is taking advantage of Donald Trump’s more lenient policies towards Russia to improve its relationship with the US. This is primarily based on wanting to improve defence cooperation. During the cold war, Turkey relied on the US for arms, funding and equipment, but was not able to use these weapons without US authorisation.
After 1989, Turkey carved out different markets for its weapons imports and faced US sanctions for buying S-400 surface-to-air missiles from Russia in 2020. Turkey would like to purchase F-35 supersonic fighter jets from the US, and is hoping that the US will move away from sanctioning third countries that have engaged with Russia.
Whose critical ally?
Turkey has made sure that it is not seen by the US as a junior partner in the Middle East region. For example, when Turkey launched operations in north-east Syria in 2019, where it repeatedly fired close to US forces, the US offered no military response.
The US sees Turkey as a key ally in spite of some different strategic goals. In addition to its geopolitical importance, Turkey also hosts US and Nato military forces at several of its bases and US nuclear weapons (20 B61 nuclear bombs) at its Incirlik Air Force Base.
Turkey now wants to expand its diplomatic and military footprint. As a member of the G20, with one of the 20 biggest economies in the world and the second largest and second most powerful military force in Nato after the US, it has a lot of power. And in geopolitical juggling, currently Turkey is in the luxurious position of everyone wanting Ankara to be on their side.
Natasha Lindstaedt, Professor in the Department of Government, University of Essex. This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
The bit I would contend with is the statement Turkey has the second most powerful military force in NATO, that is decidedly not correct..it has a large military force but this is essentially a regional power without the enablers to fight beyond the eastern Mediterranean. But it would be a nasty enemy to fight in the eastern med but it’s numbers are based around lower end local capabilities ( lots of 1500 ton electric boats, 3000 ton patrol frigates and light combat aircraft).
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Nukes aside the UK France or Germany are no match for Turkey!
The Turkish army is way more modern equipped and yes the UK is getting armoured vehicles from Turkey 2 models being manufactured here . In a ground battle the Turks would defeat all 3 countries due to sheer manpower, better armed, better battlefield experience and bigger firepower! Multiple types of missiles huge tanks armoured vehicles fleet and if we add drones more than all of Europe combined . A variety of ballistic and cruise missiles and yes they have developed a layered air defence system something Europe has not . Hence Why Putin and Trump praise Turkish power . Turkey has bases in Europe like the Balkans Central Asia The Middle East, Arabian Gulf, North Africa and the Horn of Africa so it’s definitely not a regional power anymore their bases span across 3 continents hence the helicopter drone carrier and soon a fully fledged aircraft carrier. They now produce 85 percent of their weapons way less reliant on the US like UK or other European states and they aim for 100 percent. Just in 2002 Before Erdogan Turkey imported 70 percent of it’s arms and today’s it exports that’s a huge turn around
Just a shame the country also has a megalomaniac nutter in charge, very much like Russia!
And yet they are desperate to get their hands on old tranche 1 typhoons??
You’ve obviously never been on exercise with the Turkish Army … They look great, but the reality was somewhat underwhelming.
Judging by the way James writes he is in fact a Turk himself, or just someone blinded by stats. The Turkish military was also politically purged not long ago so the officer quality has probably fallen since then.
I’m never sure how anyone manages to come up with these nonsense rankings of who has powerful army’s like the “firepower index” that seem to rate countries like Turkey with big conscript army’s as powerful then put the USA as number one despite it having a fairly small army. They don’t use any metrics.
For a starter how can you be a powerful military and not have nuclear weapons. Ask Ukraine and Russia how that’s working out.
It’s pretty clear that any land power with a big boarder that requires a large standing army is not powerful but weak. That army is not an asset that can be deployed into a conflict like the USA or UK but a defensive debt that must be paid for to protect the home land.
Any true military power rankings can only measure nuclear weapons states and their ability to conduct action at a distance of at-least several thousand miles.
There are only three militaries on the planet that I am aware of who have deployed division sized forces beyond their own immediate boarders since the Second World War (USA, UK and France)
Jim, I agree. The Global Firepower Index is perverse and does not consider: combat experience; training state; nuclear capability; power projection capability and experience; posession of overseas bases.
Don’t its carrier, destroyer, jet fighter and drone programmes suggest that it won’t be a regional player forever? China was written off as a regional player only a few years ago. If Erdogan goes, it’s possible it won’t continue along this route, but ten years from now, when it has a strike carrier group in the Indian Ocean, nobody will be saying regional player anymore.
whaf a load of rubbish! obviously a piece written by the Turkish tourism office
The Turkish military may have grown but its quality is declining, after several purges made by the radical islamist government, officers are being promoted based on their loyalty and not their professional quality … also Turkey is just like Qatar, playing both sides… so this article is rubbish
of course Turkey is just like Qatar, authoritarian and both support the Muslim Brotherhood, which spawned spin offs like Hezbollah and Hamas
This exactly why the UK is in the state it is with people like you stuck in the past with ideology and lack of logic. That Purge after a couple was in 2016 and it was partial not entirely military and since then Turkey rebuild in quantity and quality it has been a decade almost . At that time Turkey was importing arms like 55 percent now 85 percent id locally produced hence why Europe wants Turkish arms including the UK! It would take decades for Europe to produce significantly weapons . Turkey cares not the slightest of people that have the opinions you have, it negotiates with Xi of China Putin Trump they all respect Erdogan because they know they can make deal with him unlike our weak leaders getting tariffs imposed and extorted despite sacrificing everything.
Dear James, are you watching what is happening in Turkey in the last few days? I am not expressing my thoughts on wishful or biased thinking, have you broaden your knowledge with other sources? the Turkish military has shown incompetence fighting the Kurdish despite their declared superior technology, they say they are developing fifth generation aircrafts but as we speak they are in the US begging to get back to the F35 program after they already bought F16 last year… you are mislead by their sponsored content in the social media, any country that has an option will not buy their tech or get into deep relationships with this radical Islamic dictatorship… read about, Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim brotherhood and their plan for Europe, Turkey and Qatar are muslim brotherhood states
The red rose tinted Turkey specs are blinding you! Erdogan is a religious nutter and has been imprisoning opponents well before the so called coup (which he also arranged) and right up to today! He is an unreliable nutter hence the other nutters like his style! Plus while the Turkish military is well equipped, they lack the skills base (certainly in the Army) and the experience SNCOs and Officers, as their career depends on their allegiance not their professionalism.
It reads to me like you are talking about two separate aspects of the military: the industrial side has been doing well, the military side, perhaps less well. I don’t think Erogan wants a strong military leadership as the military used to see itself as the protector of Attaturk’s legacy: a modern secular democratic country that has no room for the like of Erdogan. He’s not going to chance that role returning.
Clearly you sound bitter, it was written by someone that understands Reality unlike you that still thinks we are in the crusades ( from your name ) She has nothing to due with Turkey.
What one can’t deny is that they have had a pragmatic approach that puts their interests first and happily plays one side off against the other knowing it has considerable importance rather than underplay its potential. To be honest I wish Britain took some hints from this rather than playing for too many years the lapdog to American political machinations only to find that it only takes a President with worryingly many hangers on willing to sell their souks for internal power, a wide range of useful idiots and a large dumb compliant easily fooled element to their electorate to make America change sides leaving us up swanny creek as a result. Amazing how powers with far less heft than us can achieve so much more when they aren’t eternal sycophants and offering support with little in reply but thinking we have some special relationship…. that is increasingly looking laughable and if anything with the devil. Difficult to be taken seriously by others after that stab in the back from our ‘closest friend and ally’ only to be told we weren’t sycophantic enough all along.
Bismarck’s Realpolitik!
Exactly 💯 Erdogan has good relations with Xi of China, Putin of Russia and Trump! He Makes deals with all of them that are in the interest of his nation. Despite protest 🪧 Trump said to the new Turkish ambassador on camera Erdogan is a good leader and they had a phone call recently and he is invited to the white house. Likely Russia Ukraine deal will be hosted by Erdogan in the end. They will be back in the F35 too . The UK special relationship led to tariffs being imposed! Trump respects strong leaders . Interestingly Trump imposed no tariffs on Turkey which says a lot
Well, as they say, all roads lead to Constantinople; focus of the Great Schism of 1054, capital of the Ottoman empire in 1453, just a year after Christopher had ‘sailed the ocean blue’ to the New World and home of the Orthodox Patriarch who authorized the independence of the Ukrainian Orthodox church from Moscow. The Christians defeated the Ottomans at the gates of Vienna in 1683. I think the Austrians have been dining out on it ever since. Erdogan fancies himself as the Sultan of a reborn Islamic Ottoman empire but there are riots in the streets in Istanbul. The between Türkiye and western culture continues.
I think we may have differing views on what constitutes western culture.
I would say modern western culture is Liberal and Democratic, and largely post-christian. This is what has allowed good to come into existence in the world over the last few centuries. This good is currently championed by the EU and other states that share their values, some from similar cultural roots ie Canada, some from alternative roots but which have embraced good ie the eastern Asian democracies.
Our opponents are the unreconstructed Muslims of the middle east ie Saudis and Iran, Russia which has handled the upset of communism’s fall by retreating into a fantasy of christian nationalism, and the post communist rise of a form of Han national socialism in China.
The ‘swing states’ in this are the UK, where I hope Fascism peaked with leave although they are still trying to destroy good further, The USA where the Democrats seem to want to become an English speaking version of the EU, while the Republicans want to become an English speaking version of Russia, and perhaps Turkey where the opposition are probably more committed to what I would see as western culture than most Reform voters, while Erdogan is just the local Putin.
My post was a reflection of the pivotal role of Istanbul over 2000 years of history. Our understandings of ‘western culture’ may differ. Its difficult to say without some debate and this is the wrong forum. But in general ‘culture’ is what defines a people. Irish culture is a unique combination language, music, literature and faith. Scottish country dancing and Burns are a different culture to Morris dancing and Shakespeare; and so on.
Peoples are not nations. Nations are the civil authority which governs. Both culture and nation are different to country, which is simply the geographic land area. All Europe remembers the fallen on Armistice day. In so doing we acknowledge our debt to those who sacrificed themselves for others. The founding fathers of the EU were catholics. The EU started to fall apart the moment it declined, in the Lisbon Treaty to acknowledge its debt to its Christian heritage. As experience is showing, liberal democracy is no defence against the militant advance of Islam. Happy Easter 🙂
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Turkey is rebuilding it’s military power around indigenous construction of tanks, ships and aircraft.
Their navy is based upon a useful large corvette/ light frigate class that has had some export success. Goes to show what is possible when building large numbers of a platform to reduce unit price down.
Type 31 needs another batch as does type 26.
SDSR has to reverse the utter folly of reducing the UKs naval power down just at a time when it is most needed.