The Turkish military has fully engaged in the invasion of Northern Syria.

Preparations for the offensive began in early October, starting with the withdrawal of American forces from positions near the Turkish border, after Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan had a phone call with United States President Donald Trump about plans for a military operation against SDF-held areas east of the Euphrates river.

Syria’s Kurdish militant YPG group, is the target in this invasion. The Syrian Democratic Forces is militarily led by the People’s Protection Units (YPG), a mostly Kurdish militia.

Turkey sees the YPG as a threat due to its link to the separatist PKK, another Kurdish group the Turkish government been battling for decades. It’s considered a terrorist organisation by the U.S. and the European Union.

While the United States government has stated it does not support the Turkish-led offensive, the White House also announced on the 6th of October 2019 that it would not interfere.

The operation began as we reported yesterday, with Turkish airstrikes and howitzers targeting the Syrian Democratic Forces held towns of Tell Abyad, Ras al-Ayn where thousands of people were reported to have fled the town, Ain Issa and Qamishli.

The date is reportedly the anniversary of the PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan’s expulsion from Syria in 1998, by the government of Hafez al-Assad.

In response to the cross-border shelling, SDF’s spokesman claimed that Turkey was targeting civilians. Six rockets were later launched at the Turkish city of Nusaybin as a response by the PKK, and two reportedly hit the Turkish town Ceylanpınar. According to local media, the SDF also announced in response to the start of the Turkish operation they would be halting anti-Islamic State operations, and that two civilians had been killed.

By the end of the day, the Turkish military announced that the ground phase of the operation had begun from three points – including Tell Abyad.

Before dawn this morning and after limited incursions yesterday, the Turkish military officially began the main ground offensive against SDF; they also announced that they had hit 181 targets in northern Syria, and 14,000 rebels backed by Turkey are also reportedly taking part in the Turkish-led offensive.

George Allison
George has a degree in Cyber Security from Glasgow Caledonian University and has a keen interest in naval and cyber security matters and has appeared on national radio and television to discuss current events. George is on Twitter at @geoallison

51 COMMENTS

  1. I feel a sympathy for the Kurds-a proud nation spread over three states with no country of their own but trying to untangle the cross loyalties, politics and agendas of the various groups is near impossible. Intuitively I think Trump erred in pulling out the small number of US troops and thus precipitating the start of hostilities. I also find it hard to understand Erdogan’s assertion that he has invaded the area to secure peace!!??
    Finally-whilst the whole Middle East is a mess, in the case of Syria, most of the current devastation and suffering lies at the door of one truly evil human being-Assad.

      • Im actually beginning to think we should all pull out of the middle east, just leave them to it. Come back in 50 years and see whats left. Im not sure why we always want to put our guys in harms way for an area of the planet that no matter how many deaths will never change. You cant change a relgion/ideology etc through violence. It needs education to bring them in the modern age and move them away from the issues that are passed from parent to child.

        • I think we should have done this long ago, but we won’t for a number of reasons, none of them really valid.

          1. oil, a large part of the worlds oil comes from the region
          2. gas, there are a number of key pipelines through the region
          3. trade, shipping has to go via the region

          I suspect just pulling out and leaving them to it would probably not upset any of the above but who really knows.

        • Currently reading Dan Jones’ Crusaders. Your ‘beginning to think’ had some very old echoes among those who were evidently not quite as religious as we’re led to believe!

      • HF
        Neocons are aghast. I have never been one and neither has most of Trumps wing of the Party. All I care about is leaving. My country does not owe indentured servitude to the Kurds.

        • THE USA is de facto the worlds leading nation. With that comes responsibilities often that we could do without, but that go with the territory. Even little old pacifist neutral Ireland knows this and contributes to peacekeeping forces. What you don’t owe the Kurds is not the point. The point is that the consequences could cost the USA and all of us very dearly. Trump shoots from the hip and 5 minutes later changes his mind. He is a dangerous man unfit to lead the worlds top nation.

          • Responsibilities? The responsibility of the President is to the American people and to the defense of the Republic. If Ireland wants to expend blood and treasure that is their choice. It is not however the choice of the American people who have wanted to leave for a LONG time. As for President Trump being a dangerous and unfit man? Less so than the Neocons and Neolibs who haven’t ever seen a regime they didn’t want to change.

          • Elliot-the USA has more personnel spread over more bases worldwide than any other nation. Trump may well reduce this situation slightly but the USA has worldwide responsibilities like it or not. It has and will maintain for many years troops in Japan,South Korea, Germany,Australia, the UK etc.. The world is inexorably intertwined and a simplistic statement that the President only has responsibility for the American people is naïve in the extreme. membership of Nato, the 5 Nations, the Special relationship etc. on their own make the USA partly responsible for other nations welfare. I am no “pinko liberal’ -sort of moderately right of centre. If I was an American I would most likely vote Republican but I repeat my belief that Trump is a dangerous individual-an opinion shared by many Republicans
            Regards

          • The difference is we have actual treaties with those other countries. Which do not exist in this case. A treaty must be introduced by the executive and passed by the Senate after a public debate. I have no problem with bases all over the world, what I take issue with is constant deployments that do not serve American interests. In addition to lowering readiness against real threats like China. Which has taken advantage of our being distracted in the Middle East to run roughshod over our allies in the SCS.
            As for responsibility? In the end look no further than the Oath of Office.

          • Hear what you say Elliot but in the 21st Century world in which we live -no man nor nation is an island. America has spent perhaps a Century intervening in other places-mostly and with deep gratitude, for the good as in WW2 but sometimes for not so much good as in Vietnam and Iraq. I understand America First but like it or not the good old USA(of which I am a great admirer) is stuck with some of the role of World policeman particularly since the UK receded from that task. We can each hold our respective opinions and debate in a decent manner. Thanks for the exchange.

          • would you really vote Republican being “moderately right of centre”? I consider myself in the same place but find myself having very little to support with Trump’s Republican party. Unfortunately, a lot of the senate appear to be gagged, blackmailed, self-centered or otherwise spineless and appear unable to put any principles beyond their own immediate prospects. The US is indeed a barren place for centrists/moderates

          • I voted for my Senator to represent the views he campaigned not what he may believe “principled”. There is a issue with principles: no one agrees on what is principled. What one so called “centrist” might consider a principled stand someone like me would consider disloyal, dishonest, and pandering to a media that will hate you either way.

          • that may be but the GOP is hardly a “broad church” nowadays (I apologise for religious connotations with politics, just an expression.) Alternate GOP or moderate views are immediately slammed down or attacked. where do those people go?

          • So the Party that just in the Senate manages to contain Ted Cruz, Tim Scott, Rand Paul and Suzanne Collins isn’t a big enough tent?

          • “manages to contain” hardly a big threat to the leadership….not up until the last week or so anyway…times are a changin’. Lame Duck time could be close

          • Would I really vote Republican..? Perhaps not enthusiastically but as you say-the US electorate it would seem, is stuck in this simple binary so if not Republican-Democrat? The latter I think not-they have lurched too far to the left with the likes of Bernie Sanders and a clique of loony(happen to be) female candidates.There is a vast swathe of fertile ground for a new middle party in America

          • there is indeed and I really don’t understand why politicians don’t break away and form a new party, particularly when they build their own campaign funds. when you look at some of the “lefty policies”, they are basic things we take for granted: comprehensive health care, gun laws, basic holiday/maternity entitlements, though I know the “green new deal” is a bit edgy. Perhaps all of these together would be a bit too much but they are what we have come to expect in Europe and other liberal countries

            I work with a woman whose husband has only just taken a week’s holiday in the last 5 years. He was scared of losing his job and that’s why he wouldn’t take it. I don’t think that is exceptional but it is crazy and many Americans still don’t get basic rights like that. In the US, that is considered left wing but its not really is it to guarantee very basic working conditions

          • The USA certainly is backward when it comes to bottom line working conditions(also strange how they cling doggedly to feet and inches). Here in South Africa things have gone to the other extreme-trying to fire someone even for major offences is difficult, holidays and sick leave, maternity leave, family compassionate leave are at all time highs and we spend half our days filling out endless forms-almost impossible to run a small or medium business! Nice chatting Julian and thanks George Allison for indulging us for straying off subject :):)

          • My guns are none of your God damned buisness and haven’t been since 1776. So you can shut it on that issue.

        • The US should not have invaded Iraq then. Unfort no one can turn back the clock but as a result the US now has a responsibility to ensure they are protected from a possible genocide after they helped them defeat IS at the cost of thousands of their own lives.

          • No. No open ended responsibility. The Kurds perhaps should have thought about that when they and their lobbyists were among the many groups pressuring us to invade. Remember as the saying goes: “Be careful what you wish for you just might get it.”
            Once again the Kurds had to fight ISIS regardless we just gave them money, guns, and equipment. In order to to do what they already had to. Then supported them with Special Forces and massive amounts of bombing. Nothing owed.

          • The precedent was set when US and Europe attacked Serbia and invaded Kosovo without UN sanction. Sadam Hussein was far more brutal and practiced ethnic cleansing of Kurds and Shi’ites on a far larger scale that anything that the Serbs did under provocation of KLA attacks.

  2. Well that’s a massive lesson to any small country or organisation that had considered themselves to be a US ally or in good favour. The US is damaged throughout the world and unsurprisingly there is major disquiet in the Baltic media. The Chinese will he emboldened and I bet the Russians in particular just cannot believe their luck.

    • The Russians can keep Syria it has been in their sphere of influence since Stalin.
      If you think the Chinese give a single solitary damn how we treat the Kurds look no further than the Uighurs. They simply don’t care.
      As for the Balts? They have a treaty for better or worse(personally I think to the worse), as long as they abide by it to the letter they have nothing to fear. If they keep failing to hit defense spending targets while simultaneously antagonizing Russia well then they will have a “issue”.

  3. Reading some of the comments on here which are happy with the US forces leaving Syria ,Its a bad move from trump who really does not know what he is doing,but just to remind some people on here that with out the US and its forces being influential in the world we would be in a very bad place with all the dickhead nations like NK, China, Russia ,Iran etc who would cause a lot more havoc.
    The US is not perfect but we better pray US power stays strong for years to come because the alternative is not good at all .

    • perhaps…but European nations can step up and spend more to mitigate the effect. there is truth in the rumour that European nations don’t spend enough on defence. A more united Europe with teeth would be a godsend…just not sure its realistic

  4. I really feel sorry for the Kurds, the cost to the USA was minimal in keeping a presence there, but Trump love him or hate him, said America first. I think Turkey has imperialist motives, and wants to be a strong man of the region, if Syria is a success – Iraq next Kurdistan for its oil, its over the border. However the Kurds are battle hardened – high mobile and very resourceful, I think it will be no push over for Turkey, last time they had a go, the Kurds knocked out a few Leopard tanks with Javelin ATM and mines.

    If they sicken Trump off, and he places sanctions on Turkey most of there equipment is of US origin. Turkey will struggle, then if he wipes out their economy as threatened, I think it’s the end of Turkey.

  5. I didn’t think Trump’s impeachement was ever realistic, since the senate would have always blocked it. But with Trump’s latest brainfart and annoying some Republicans, the possibility seems to be gaining some credibility.

  6. I have always thought Trump was a bit of a loose cannon and never gives a good impression when talking or even tweeting. But after hearing him talk today about two things, first being the Turkish invasion of North Syria and the second being the diplomatic immunity case, in regard to the RTC. I have to say I think he is in fact a bit of a moron and I may have been giving him a bit to much benefit of the doubt.

    I always thought he isn’t great, not a great speaker or a statesman, but surrounded by advisers and Generals, he may be ok. Nope, sorry, I can give him no more, he is mince. He sounds like he is a crack head, talking absolute shite, making shit up the moment he opens his mouth! And there i endeth the lesson!

    • I think I’m getting there with Trump too.

      Never liked his environmental plans or attitude to animals, but do agree on some points, that immigration needs controlling and cannot be free reign.

      Then I read a tweet of his yesterday about destroying the economy of Turkey, that the USA is Great, and on an on, and thought, flippin heck. That’s no way for POTUS to talk. Imagine if Putin said that.

      • Agree with you Daniele. The issue is the way the left are getting so rabid is forcing people to pick sides, so whereas a normal person would say on some points trump is good, others he is bad, certain left wing people are saying that everything he does is bad. You see it mirrored in our parliament, the conservative party are discussing Brexit, some for, some against, which I feel is representative of the country, the issue is that the left wing parties are all staunchly pro remain, making the parliment massively pro remain. This will end up forcing the conservatives to all be pro leave, which I fear will lead us towards a bad deal. Ironically, if labour had a slight majority of pro leave supporters, like the conservatives, I firmly believe a sensible deal would have been reached by now. I for one refuse to be drawn to left right lines, and I know a lot of normal people from the UK who are the same. That said, I am a little bit bias towards trump in a positive light, as a lot of the hate that gets thrown at him for things such as wanting a stronger immigration policy is ridiculous.
        However I cannot stomach this Kurds issue. Left wing people scream about hate crimes and gender bias and all this nonsense, and yet when you have a group of people being removed from their home by force, by a nato ally, with the long term goal of putting another demographic there it horrifies me to my core. We are either a caring society or we are not, if we are not, drop all the left wing bollocks and say tough luck Kurds, there’s no benefit to us helping you, if we are we need to kick up a massive fuss with turkey and the rest of the world. I read dominic rabs statement to turkey and it was embarrassing. When did we become so weak? The fact that turkey can threaten us with 3.5 million refugees says it all.
        I wouldn’t be surprised if this move sinks trump

        • This is because US politics only has 2 options and they are polarized. The GOP are too far to the right, the Dems have moved to the left. The centrists are left behind having to make a binary decision – either ioption doesn’t sit comfortably. At least our politics is more dynamic in terms of new parties and coalitions etc but the US isn’t like this. In spite of the shit show parliament has been for the last few years, at least there are real options to choose from

          • That’s a good point Julian. Yes, in recent history conservatives loosing votes to party’s such as ukip has forced them to adopt ukip policies, eg giving us the vote on leaving the EU. I have heard it said that our conservatives are closer to the us center than Thier right. I don’t think polarising politics gets anyone anywhere and am glad our system seems to be a bit more flexible than the Americans. Normally I don’t pay too much heed to trump’s comments/ speaking. I have heard him speak on TV and he didnt come across as a great orator (putting it nicely). The one thing that has really shocked me though is his recent tweets regarding the Kurds and turkey. Really unbalanced stuff.

      • I see this shit everyday. There are late night shows built around the satire and comedy….he is like a retarded teenager

        Thing is with Trump, its not necessarily what he does its what he says. If he kept his big, uncouth, ill-educated mouth shut and closed his twitter account, he would probably get away with it. But he doesn’t – he is his own worst enemy and totally lacks humility or empathy. It is just incredible he got to where he is in all walks of life. In America, they say “look at what he does not what he says” – but really, how long can you ignore his gobshite for?

        Thankfully the tide is finally turning against him

      • by the way Danielle, his immigration policies of splitting families affect everybody. Even me here as a brit on a work visa – I have had my visa renewed whilst my family continue to wait for months. I can travel and drive and work, they can’t. I’m coming back to the UK next year, I’ve had enough

        • Disobeying the Law should have consequences. I don’t care if a someone who broke the law is separated from their family. America has the most generous immigration system in the world, which they chose not to avail themselves of and simultaneously spit on those who waited their turn and came legally.

          • Doesn’t justify treating children like animals though. And of course they are all guilty until proven innocent. The administration has no shame.

          • There is no such thing as forced separation of families! They DECIDED to come here and therefore chose to be separated. A good portion aren’t even coming with their children, but are renting them to get across the border.
            The law is freely available for anyone to peruse. Ignorance of it is not a excuse from punishment.

        • Hi Julian. As I think you know I was referring to the wider concept of open ended mass immigration, with no limits, which is encouraged everywhere one looks on the left. Only recently I highlighted the frankly lunatic vote by Labour members here, which Sole Survivor tried to reassure me that a vote is not always taken up by the leadership. It didn’t reassure me much given Corbyn, Abbott’s, Mcdonnels comments on such things.

          I think Johns reply to me above summed my opinion. A balance is needed. And too often those that dare so much as squeak are shouted down in this pc world.

          Of course forced separation of families is wrong. I’m on about the wider concept. As John above said, many on the left are all or nothing with this subject. The concept of balance, that a nation should have sensible control and yet still remain humane when dealing with families and refugees is lost in the howling wind.

          Trump is clearly neither, which I see clearer than ever. Yet on some issues he is right. Thst dies not excuse much of his behaviour.

          • Very eloquently put Daniele. As you very clearly wrote, a lot of the left are all or nothing with issues such as immigration. I’d like to add to this that are a lot of institutions that seem to have these views embedded as the “accepted norm”, including large multinational corporations, most government jobs (NHS, policing, teaching, local council) and the bbc. At the moment the cards are significant stacked against people that don’t agree 100% with this narrative, and I feel I have to bear this in mind when critiquing Trump. I don’t want the answer to be for people in the UK to move more to the right, but unless a lot of these institutional bias are dismantled I cannot see another solution as I fear those trying to hold a moderate middle ground opinion will get complete ignored or assumed to be “far right” in all or nothing debates.

          • Exactly. This sort of conversation needs to be encouraged, everywhere.

            And, sorry to bring it up, it was a major reason for Brexit too. Now conveniently forgotten in the howling wind of endless negative news of the economy and deal and no deal and hard and soft by people trying to stop it and keeping the status quo.

            So even if Brexit collapses, these issues still be there and we are back to square one.

  7. US troops should not of been there anyway, he was elected on a campaign to withdraw troops from the region, it’s taken him a few years but he’s finally done it, probably because there is an election around the corner but at least it’s finally happened

    This is how warped and brainwashed a lot of the population is, all this sympathy for the Kurds, do me a favour ffs, the Hollywood outrage machine and neocon/neolib imperial media & establishment are all up in arms over the poor Kurds, where was the outcry for the Iraqi civilians, or the civilians in Yemen, Libya or Syria

    The outrage machine only kicks in when American troops withdraw but never when they attack

    And the Kurds have themselves to blame, they took the American dollar and backed regime change against an internationally recognised leader, trusting the Americans even after they were left behind to the mercy of the Iraqi army in 1991, have been bombed and killed for decades with American sold weapons to Turkey, how many PKK are sitting in Turkish jails handed over by the CIA

    It’s a shame this outrage is not started when regime change is started, instead the same people shrug when we try depose a Middle Eastern leader, break international law in doing so, now when Turkey breaks international law and invades a country we can’t do a thing about it, well the US does it so why can’t we

    I’m hoping the Syrian Arab army, the only actual legitimate force that should be in Syria, gains some steam and routes the Turks, in fact I would love it

    Can’t stand that little tinpot dictator

  8. Truly a dick move by Trump, at one stroke betrayed a long term ally, started a new war that can threaten the region and undermined years of successful counter-terrorist work.

  9. Aren’t our Turkish nato allies brave in their tanks how will they cope against an adversary that mostly has small calibre weapons. THE BRAVERY.

  10. I am fascinated that America is somehow being called the bad guy now .. all the while almost literally nothing is being said about Turkey for starting the damn war. America is not responsible for Erdogan. Erdogan is responsible for Erdogan. I would say the Turks are responsible for Erdogan, but their system is so rigged and manipulated it’s not a democracy anyway.

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