New estimates provided by the UK government have shed light on the extensive losses suffered by Russian military forces in Ukraine since February 2022.
The figures, disclosed in response to queries from John Healey MP, Shadow Secretary of State for Defence, outline a significant toll on Russian military capabilities.
British Estimates at a Glance:
- Approximately 302,000 Russian military personnel killed or wounded.
- Tens of thousands of Russian soldiers have deserted.
- Over 7,117 Russian armoured vehicles destroyed.
- Nearly 2,475 main battle tanks lost.
- 93 fixed-wing aircraft downed.
- 132 helicopters destroyed.
- 320 unmanned aerial vehicles lost.
- 16 naval vessels of all classes sunk or damaged.
- Over 1,300 artillery systems of all types destroyed.
In response to Healey’s enquiry about the Russian military personnel losses, James Heappey, Minister of State for the Armed Forces, provided a stark assessment, stating, “We estimate that approximately 302,000 Russian military personnel have been killed or wounded, and tens of thousands more have already deserted since the start of the conflict.”
Healey also raised questions regarding the casualties among Russian private military companies (PMCs) involved in the conflict. Heappey noted the difficulty in obtaining accurate figures for PMC casualties, saying, “The number of personnel killed serving in Russian private military companies (PMCs) is not clear. Russia have utilised several PMCs and volunteer units in Ukraine to augment Russian military forces, but the deaths of personnel from these organisations are not reflected in Russian official military death tolls.”
Additionally, Healey sought details on the destruction of Russian military equipment.
In response, Heappey provided comprehensive figures, revealing, “We also estimate that over 7,117 Russian armoured vehicles, including nearly 2,475 main battle tanks, 93 fixed wing aircraft, 132 helicopters, 320 unmanned aerial vehicles, 16 naval vessels of all classes, and over 1,300 artillery systems of all types have been destroyed since the start of the conflict.”
I believe nothing from Russian or Nato, all is propaganda, what is true is that Russians never expected so much resistance from Ukraine and that Russian army is not so powerful as it was estimated.
I partially agree, Russian figures are completely unreliable, and can not be believedā¦. However Nato figures have a lot more authenticity to themā¦ yes I have no doubt that some exaggeration has taken place, but overall you do have a free an independent press/journalists also operating here in the west, which allows for the estimates to be more closely examined.
NATO figures are filtered via Ukraine (which lies constantly) and dubious OSINT such as the discredited Oryx.
They all thought the Ukrainian Summer Offensive would be a walkover … and they got a shit-show that went nowhere.
All sides in war lie. WE shouldn’t be surprised by that.
I think you are being unduly pessimistic about the data. The info from the Oryx website, posted below, rather confirms what the MOD is saying. And I have seen a video of a very pro Putin TV host saying that she had seen 285,000 obituary notices on the Russian social media. (Not sure who was counting!) If that figure is true then the MOD is under estimating.
However, as is also posted below, the Kremlin cares not one jot for human life, and will continue throwing people at the Ukrainian trenches for as long as it takes. The only thing that will bring him down will be an army mutiny, as in 1917, and Iām not sure when or whether that will happen.
One thing is clear, video evidence I’ve seen on YouTube demonstrates the vulnerability of armour to modern weapons however, these figures will not stop Putin’s war. Russia has the resources to continue but will the people allow him to do so?
Offensively I think you’re right. I think defensively we under estimated them (or over estimated Ukraine’s offensive capability). The Russians aren’t budging
Russia has always said it’s forced were designed to defend and not attack, which maybe true after all. However attacking Ukraine clearly went against that. Unless something major happens this war is headed to stalemate, especially now that the west are losing interest in supplying Ukraine and Russia has no real external support.
The kremlin is clearly full of people with no care for human life Russian or ukrainian and you have to feel sorry for the average Russian solider that is just doing their job and has no desire to be there.
If the West as a whole were truly losing interest in supporting Ukraine, rather than purely self-serving politicians, then it must be losing interest in its own continued survival.
As we know, Ukraine is a Sovereign state essentially having to play Russia at chess whilst not being allowed to enter ‘black’s’ half of the board, effectively at our behest & ultimately on our behalf, to great personnel sacrifice.
In the meantime, those Western nations that dominate arms manufacturing are experiencing a massive uplift in production and associated GDP, whilst further consolidating that market domination.
In many respects, the principal suspects in the first paragraph are co-resident in the nations of the third. This has not gone unremarked in those ‘3rd countries’ that have hitherto relied upon these illustrious defenders of Democracy for their survival.
Russia will have an emboldened China for support from 2024, unless the prevalent cynicism & cronyism is purged from Western political parties. Currently, it’s not looking good, Steve.
Unfortunately the western world has always followed the US when it comes to Ukriane and their political focus has shifted to Israel. European countries including the UK have never acted alone on this war and now that Russia isn’t a threat to nato their focus has moved to domestic issues. After all when was the last time we saw sunak pop up in Ukraine or any other western leader for that matter. With the west not having a skin in the game their interests have waned. Not helped by Ukraine failed offensive, which would have helped justify the need for support.
Well, ‘luckily’ we’ll not have to wait beyond 2024 to get a longer term pointer upon the extent to which ‘our’ politicians stop Partying (in every sense – it’s nearly Xmas) and start taking existential security decisions on behalf of their electorates.
Using recent UK past performance, I was disappointed when Sunak failed the first litmus test on Defence Secretary. Not sure why the effective Wallace left, but the replacement could have been practically anyone* but Shapps. I also thought Foreign Sec. was going fairly well, but apparently we need DC – evidently ‘credible’; though last I recall he was pleading with his European pals to not treat him with the contempt visible on our TV screens, and trying to use privilege and taxpayers money to promote his own increasing wealth.
* not saying much, maybe
Rgs
Russia a 2 nd division military at very best had Ukraine been given long-range weapons and F16early on I believe Ukraine would have won within the first 2 months
Open source data and independent sources back up most of these losses. Although you never will get your finger on all the truth, itās bollox to compare the very obvious lies from Russia to NATO, of which can be scrutinised by free western press. Russia is not in direct war with NATO and there is no āNATOā propaganda. is the BBC also NATO propaganda then? Letās go back to the beginning, NATO said Russia would invade and gave evidence, Russia called it āwestern hysteriaā and denied it, then a few weeks later launched the biggest land invasion of a neighbour since world war 2. Err who do you then believe? Of course I expect Ukraine to release some propaganda given itās in a direct war, but give it a rest about NATO, itās boring and wrong.
By any objective assessment this war has been reckless and unnecessary. Statistics are no way to evaluate the real cost, particularly as the necessity of Putin’s intentions were so flimsy and self serving. Russia leave alone Ukraine and its neighbours would be better off in all parameters had this senseless adventure not been undertaken. Civilian losses are ignored. That I find disgusting.
Sadly Western liberal sensibilities don’t hold water in Russia. If they did you wouldn’t have autocratic regimes being constantly in power, with so called elected Presidents holding onto power for so long.
The Russian special military operation has spectacularly failed. From my understanding, one of the key reasons for the invasion was to prevent Ukraine from getting influence from the West. But also to stop Ukraine from applying for NATO membership. Thereby maintain a buffer between it and NATO.
Due to Russia’s actions both Finland and soon to be Sweden will be joining the club. Plus the Baltic States have recognized their vulnerability and started a rearmament campaign. But the biggest player to rearm is Poland. Which is faced by both Russia and Belarus, along with a possible threat through an occupied Ukraine.
To be brutally honest I don’t believe Ukraine would have been allowed to join either NATO or the EU, due to its widescale corruption. But since the war, Ukraine has been actively trying to weed out corruption. So after the war, it will likely be accepted. Which would be another kick in the teeth for Russia.
There is a good chance that if Russia loose this war, that Russia may fragment. Which will most likely lead to other wars, as there will be a power grab, especially if Putin gets taken out. As a prediction if that does happen, I would watch what China does very carefully, especially around its Northern borders.
I agree with all of what you have written; indeed I have written similar elsewhere. A fragmenting Russia is not in anyones interests; anyone who can think that is.
I do hope JohninMK wasnāt among them. I miss him
I heard that he had been assassinated while on a trip to Moscow, apparently he fell out of a hotel window
Only after a cup of tea.
Wasn’t he recently on a flight heading North out of Moscow that mysteriously crashed after being the victim of an explosive mechanical failure affecting both its wings at the same time?
RIP Johnski, we miss your moronic lies and utter incompetence.
You’re all way off the mark – Comrade John has been relocated to nearby Bletchley by his superiors as they’ve just learnt that there is a British Intelligence facility nearby
Ummm… Darjeeling w/ a soupcon of Pollonium?
Multiple times?
The only person confirmed pushed though the window to his death by Putin
Me too. The ‘Airborne Correspondence’ were very nearly the cause of my being carried off to hospital from laughing too hard. Relief from contemplating a frightful situation for Ukraine’s people.
I watched that Dispatches TV prog on lost Russian fighters. There was one guy who went from cemetery to cemetery, photographing graves of recently buried soldiers & putting them on his website. It was often the only way families discovered where their relative was buried. He said he found on average 45% more soldier graves than the Russian MoD admitted to. He was accused of being un-patriotic & had to flee Russia.
There is a channel on YouTube called 1420 by Daniel. He goes out and talks to ordinary Russians around Russia about the special military operation, putin, politics, west, nato etc.
the answers given are broad in scope. Quite a few take the stance Iām not interested in politics, canāt speak freely so donāt answer anything. Some can see itās all nonsense and some are ardent supporters of everything.
Some of the stuff they answer is straight out of propaganda 101.
Yes, I have seen some of the 1420 posts. Some Russians claim to be not interested in politics, but when pushed, know far more than they first let on. Young people have VPN to see foreign news. Russian troops have phoned home from the front line, telling their families not to believe TV propaganda.
IF these figures are true and the deserters been in thousands and yet there fight on. Really find hard to unstand how Putin keeps is grip on is people ,what does it take to get rid š
It’s the Russian mentality unfortunately Andrew.
Top down leadership, with a boot on the peasants neck.
It’s how it’s always been from the Tsar to the Communist elite, fear, totally controlled media and violence keeps the masses complient and doing what they are told.
If it takes a million dead for Putin to save face, then one million dead it is, the leadership won’t give it a second thought, or loose a winks sleep over it.
The complient masses do exactly as they are told, pop on a uniform, pick up an AK74 from the pile and march into the meat grinder….
Hmmm…liberals are casual w/ others’ money, autocrats/dictators are casual w/ others’ lives…Is there a hybrid, a liberal dictator? š¤š³š±
Give it 5 years and I suspect Donald trump will give it a go if he gets to become the next US president..he has apparently already mentioned he would like a bill to repeal the 22nd amendment..so watch this space you could end up having a never ending president..
The US is heading there already. The FBI, DoJ and IRS are already weaponised against enemies of the narrative. You start opposing the narrative and suddenly 30 heavily armed FBI agents will “knock” on your door. If you’re business you’ll get investigated by the IRS. If you’re a charity you’re suddenly taxed like a business. If you’re a Clinton or a Biden and you mishandle classified information at home, nothing in fact they invent new ways to escape accountability. If you’re a Trump they throw the book at you. If you’re a church during lock down you can’t hold outdoor, socially distanced services but if you’re a judge you can take part in the BLM riots unopposed. Despite main stream media’s protestations the people in the US feel it, they see it and anger is growing.
We’re already heading into liberal dictatorship. Try going to certain places in Poole and Dorset and praying silently in your mind dispassionately in the evening. You’ll quickly discover your freedom of conscience doesn’t exist there.
His grip is maintained by obscuring the true casualty figures and intimidating anyone who speaks openly about them into silence or labelling them as unpatriotic. Remember near the start of the invasion the Russians deployed rather grisly ‘cremation lorries’ with, presumably, the intention of removing any physical evidence of losses. Horrible really.
There’s also probably some piddling law or two that the Kremlin has passed against speaking out publicly on these issues too, so chances are one would face a kangaroo court in addition to the above.
Better the devil you know, may be a key factor here! If Putin does get shoved, who steps into his shoes?
There was a Channel 4 documentary not so long back looking at this very question. Those that have the power, are either on the same level as Putin or complicit with the Mafia. So for the masses, nothing is likely to change. However, for the War in Ukraine it will likely get worse, as they may bring in proper conscription. Rather than just the yearly intake they currently have.
AndrewD, Send in John Wick, sure he could persuade him to call it a day ( wishful thinkingšš¤£)
š¤ like it ,sons favourite film . š
It takes a lot of organising to try and get rid of a president and his government. Russia is good at stomping out any opposition before it gets to much traction.
When I was serving it was reckoned that a unit was not combat effective with 30% casualties. Must be true aggregated at the broader level – ie valid for the whole of a deployed army.
No battle plan survives first contact……
Or , The dildo of consequence rarely arrives lubed…..
š¤£š Had not previously seen second formulation. Copywrited?
I’ve seen Ukranian FPV drones with front mounted Dildo’s that are have that slogan written on them.
š
I think the original comes from X Darth Putin account (which is great indeed)
‘nearly 2475 main battle tanks’…? So it’s 2474 then?
The Oryx website only posts data on Russian armour losses that have been confirmed with geolocated pics or video. Today, its:
Tanks 2485, of which destroyed: 1628, damaged: 140, abandoned: 167, captured: 550
A sobering observation when the Army only has about 250 Challys
Here’s the link if it doesn’t get moderated
https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html
Indeed and even more so when we only have 77 thousand soldiers.
IT is a worry š
The counterpoint is the British Army is not going to unilaterally invade a country on it’s own on three axes, with several hundred thousand soldiers.
Well that’s comforting.ļ»æšļ»æ
and of course Putin is fighting the war of aggression in Ukraine with North Korea and Iran. The UK will fight with more than 30 countries
Like we did in 1982 !
If the Russian command had any common sense they would give up and withdraw.
But you have to admit they seem to have resilience, reserves, and resources, they still do not seem to be running out of ammo or equipment.
Currently, this has not been a good month for the Ukraine. Russia is on the offensive near Adiivka, Lupiansk and today they are advancing from Bakmut
making small gains but still losing lots of men and equipment.
I think that Putin will be fairly happy with how it’s going. He cares not about how many Russians die, but he will be delighted by the increasing sense of fatigue and distraction in the West. He certainly won’t get everything he wanted, but he will not lose. Whatever isn’t going well for Russia, they are clearly not running out of arms, men or cash and another two or three years of this will be fine with Putin. He’s still flogging arms and energy to India and China (and Nuclear plants to NATO’s Hungary who are doing all they can to help him) and Iran and North Korea are keeping him topped up with shells and drones.
It’s depressing, but Putin will not pack up and go back to Russia.
Or are the Ukrainians letting Russia use up men and materiel in a meat grinder.
Then the Ukrainians can push through the weakened and exhausted Russian lines?
Particularly when the F16s arrive and Russia will lose what fast air domain it has.
IMHO Russia is trying to overwhelm the Ukrainian defences by using attrition tactics.
Russia knows it has access to more resources than Ukraine and can quickly resupply from China, Iran and North Korea.
And given some countries in the West are now starting to hesitate about giving more funding, weapons, and ordinance to Ukraine, it is a tactic that will very likely work in Russia’s favour.
The F16s are not going to turn the tide of war, I think only 5th gen stealth jets would do that. The Russian’s have lost enough high performance jets over the battlefield in Ukraine to reduce the number of sorties down and strive to preserve what they have left. They are fighting with one arm tied behind their backs as they need enough first line jets left to face off against NATO and/or China or any other power.
The performance of the Russian Airforce has been similar to their Army and Navy, utterly rubbish. The air force numbering several thousand 3rd and 4th gen aircraft should have been able to establish complete air superiority over Ukraine within a week and yet it failed. This failure has resulted in the much lauded modernised Russian army having to resort to WW1 tactics of massive indiscriminate and inaccurate bombardment followed by human wave attacks against well-entrenched Ukrainian defenders. Resulting in the now 300,000 deaths and climbing.
I think the F16s will prove similar to Russian 3rd and 4th gen fighters over the battlefield very exposed and heavily targeted by GBAD and even MANPADs. The only real advantage of the F16 would be to provide interceptor flights and ensure Russia cannot establish air superiority over Ukraine, meaning the blood shed and attrition on the ground will continue until either Ukraine wins, Russia quits or there is a negotiated settlement (I’m not for a negotiated settlement as we all know Putin will sign the deal, will have carved off a big chunk of Ukraine and then will rearm, replenish and restock and in <5 years time go again).
The question is at what point will Russia question its loses and run out of tolerance for such huge casualty figures? will it take 500,000 dead, 1 million, 2 million?
I disagree.
Ukraine has done a fair job with its tiny airforce.
F16 with modern(ish) weapons would wipe out S300 and S400 batteries.
That changes the dynamics and they can then be used for high level GPS and laser guided bombing runs which makes up for the small supply of missiles.
TBH I hope that Ukraine has held back Storm Shadow and Scalp so that they can use those to suppress when the F16s arrive.
I think Ukraine can then control fast air and naval domains totally.
Totally agree. They will also need aerial refueling platforms-which will allow then to attack the Russian navy and heavy bombers out in the oceans
The Ukrainians already control the near waters?
I donāt see Ukraine needing, getting or wanting AAR.
They would be better off with missiles / drones.
Launching missiles from the F16 extends the range both from the launch location and from the imparted launch velocity.
I suspect they will be given a stack of older air launch Harpoons etc that they will modify to Neptune / Harpoonski standards. Given that the Ukrainians already gave good technical skills and success Iād be optimistic of their success.
But they donāt need more naval success they need to supply ground operations with loads if high level launched guided weapons and LGBās GPSGBās provide what they need.
Not sure if storm shadow is a bit heavy for the F16. Hopefully they can keep the su24 going as a cruise missile launcher.
What the F16 will hopefully be good for will be hitting incoming missiles, putting off Russian aircraft, anti ship missile launches.
Really hope the training pipeline and jet supply can be kept going for the duration. New jets will be needed with new pilots.
Iām sure they will launch Storm Shadow from Su24.
I think it is the smart bombing that is going to do the trick as there is a bigger NATO inventory of guided munitions that are F16 compatible as well as versions of Sidewinder that would still be perfectly effective against the Russian airforce scrap heap challenge.
Don’t NATO Smart Weapons work best when the Aircraft is at altitude?.
Concur. If NATO collectively provides a sufficient number of F-16s, including attritional reserves, ancillary support and especially if brought up to F-16V standard (Block 70/72), UKR will have a formidable weapon system. Paired w/ numerous, cost-effective JDAMs in various configs, and after Orcs’ Pole-21 jammers suppressed/eliminated, it will be the start of open-season hunting on Orcs. Some probably do not realize proficient pilots can shack these bombs, all-weather, 24/7/365. Don’t care how professional and disciplined the opposition, the continuing prospect of 500 to 2000 lb of HE being shoved where the sun doesn’t shine would tend to be mildly disheartening. A-10s, otherwise destined for the boneyard could become a significant complement to F-16s. Quite a potential CAS package, courtesy of Uncle Sugar and friends. š¤š³š
Russia wonāt give up without a change in leadership or some way of saving face.
To be able to say the special operation is complete and we accomplished the goals of: liberating this Donbas? Land bridge to crimea?
The west need to up the game and get war production up and running quickly. This is not the time to be slowing support. Why this isnāt happening faster I am at loss to answer.
Our war industries , unlike Russia’s I guess have not gone into full war production mode. Not has the entirety of NATO rearmed. Why should we? We already have 2 million professional military forces in NATO Vs Russia’s military which has probably lost the cream of its professional military already fighting in Ukraine.
Our lack of rearmament and defence investment is a political decision. By my estimate the MOD needs a Ā£45-50 billion cash injection to sort out the rot, return some semblance of attritional reserve, close some capability gaps that should never have been allowed to occur and bring into service much needed platforms and equipment such as type 32, mobile fires platform, all 200 available C2 to C3 standard, Ajax, next batch of F35Bs and missiles to equip the MK41 VLS systems on type 26,31,32 frigates. Then a say 3-4 more Wedgetail and another 5-6 Poseidon. Job done.
Army back upto 85-90K, Navy +2000, RAF +3000. All achievable with a decent cash injection. But it’s not going to happen and we are likely stumbling towards a confrontation with Mad Vlad and Xis axis of evil woefully underprepared, ill equipped and lacking fighting depth , reserves and resilience. Defence to GDP ratio needs to go upto around 3-3.5%.
Why should we be increasing war material production? Because we are supporting Ukraine and must do the best we can to provide them with what they need. Millions of artillery rounds and guns are needed. Millions of all other types of ammo, loads of SAMs, thousands of vehicles and so on. We should be making new equipment for Ukraine and helping them to make their own equipment in Ukraine. Providing what they need until Russia stops attacking.
If we arenāt going to supply Ukraine properly why bother at all
I wonder what the Ukrainian figures are?
Thanks John… I’d thought that Ukraine had a similar size army, however (as I’d said to some back in March) the Russians were always going to have a massive advantage, with their population size, and attrition rate.
That’s is Too Trump
Ukraine’s population is about 33 million, Russias is 140 million. While there is a big difference there, it’s not an insurmountable one. Anyway the US is estimating about 70,000 ZSU dead, even if it’s higher than that Ukraine has the bodies to replace them, it’s probably more of a question of training pipelines rather than raw number of people.
Perhaps a significant, if not gross simplification, but in a war of attrition, w/ both sides suffering significant casualties, concerned UKR will exhaust reserves before Mad Vlad depletes supply of Orcs. Does this not parallel the Allies’ experience during WW I? Infusion of massive amounts of NATO war materiel would be beneficial, but frankly uncertain whether NATO collectively has the political will to bear the economic costs of indefinite duration warfare. The official NATO position is that UKR negotiates solely on own behalf, but will that remain the case if ME conflict expands, and especially, if scumbag ChiComs simultaneously invade Tiawan? š¤. Perilous times…
Depends on how you are defining reserves. And kind of what I meant about the training pipeline. If your definition of Ukraine’s reserves becoming exhausted means “The number of combat ready troops they have is no longer sufficient.” Then yes, that is a threat for sure. But if by reserves you mean “Adult (mostly) Male population” then they’re not going to run out:
Neither side is inflicting casualties on a scale that will cause a breakdown due to lack of phyiscally present adults who could fight. To use your World War 1 comparison: Ukraine has lost less people in 21months along the entire front, than Britain lost in four and a half months on just the Somme. (And remember the British and French did not actually run out of personnel to put into Uniform).
The former, as your previous text stated. British Army has done a yeoman’s job providing an abbreviated training regimen for UKR personnel, but less than certain it is sufficient for demands of modern battlefield. Presume the time required to train combat ready troops is at least a multi-month proposition (or longer). š¤
Yes, it’s one of the reasons I get annoyed with (usually pro-Russian) accounts describing the new Ukranian Brigades as “NATO trained” or “NATO Standard.” The UK’s training program for Ukranian soldiers is 5 weeks long from start to finish. By comparison the training period for a normal infantry soldier in the British Army is about 32 weeks, and when they arrive in unit they’re considered as “needing babysitting” for most of their first year.
Specialist skills are even longer, Combat Medics from start of Phase 1 (basic) to arrival in unit is 40 weeks (and then they have to return to training for another 3-4 weeks to do confirmatory training before they’re allowed to practice without supervision).
I’m trying to remember what I was like 5 weeks in, I think I was just getting ready for my first “real” exercise, there’s no way I’d have been ready to actually go to war at that point.
(*edit, this is all just for private soldiers of course! I haven’t touched on the fact that NATO armies have their NCO corps that would literally take DECADES to reproduce. Average service from enlistment to Sergeant in the British Army is about 12 years.)
I take your point Dern, but let’s perhaps not be so cold about it and pause to remember these 70,000 + dead are someone’s loved one. Each loss touches hundreds of people in one way or another.
They can replace the fallen and persist, yes, but the cost in life when this terrible slaughter eventually ends is going to be biblical, like the world wars, there won’t be a single Ukrainian village or hamlet that hasn’t lost a son or father in the fight.
True, but unfortunately when discussing what resources the Ukrainians have, Human capital has to kind of be viewed in a rather cold light.
I guess so, I just think we should pause occasionally to acknowledge the human cost.
It’s getting decidedly WW1 on some fronts, with Russians pushing human wave after wave into the meat grinder…..
Absolute insanity, Russia is most definitely gambling on Ukraine loosing Western support before Mother Russia runs out of fighting age males….
When conscripts turn up at the front line with 40 + year old AKM’s drawn from stor, instead of AK74’s, you know it’s getting bad
At the very start of the war 500,000 Ukrainians signed up and joined their military. The Ukrainian army must have suffered at least 200,000 dead and wounded by now and therefore they will be seeing a developing manpower issue, conscription within Ukraine should offset these loses up to a certain point but the longer the war goes on, as Putin knows, the greater the clamour for a negotiated settlement from supporting allied countries like Germany, France, Italy, and to a lesser extent UK, Poland and USA. The tiping point will be a Trump presidency. Will Trump continue to support Ukraine? I dont know. I think Trump will see himself as a deal maker and will strive to push for a settlement, which would be folly as Putin will be back in the future for another bite of the pie.
IIRC the last Casualty (Wounded + Dead) estimate from the US was just shy of 200,000, true. Although that doesn’t allow for those that can be returned to the force. But as you said, the issue will be political pressure, equipment, and training pipelines, not the actual number of Ukranians (it also won’t be the number of russian dead that will determine the war on the other side, unless those Russian dead start piling up on the doors of Moscows middle classes, which might change the mood, but even then it’ll be appetite for casualties, not physical bodies present. For now, Colonial troops Russia can spend in droves)
Ukrainian casualties are never reported, for whatever reason that is a bit Strange.
Or we just don’t get to see those reports here in the UK? I found out long ago, that if you want to know what’s going on in the UK, read an American newspaper.
Oh yeah – the information is available you just have to know where to find it.
+1
The willingness of Russia to take casualties is hard to get one’s head around, but the evidence of it is plain to see. I have to assume that they’re still recruiting heavily from prisons, but likely straight into the army rather than Wagner or a similar PMC, because they seem to have a ready-ish supply of people to throw at Ukrainian lines. The delivery of artillery ammunition from North Korea is problematic too- even if it suffers from high dud rates. We should remember that it took two Chechen wars for Russia to get more or less what they wanted there, and I don’t much see this as different- just closer to home. Russian TV pundits are also talking about “continuing the march” further west once Ukraine is taken, so we should be under no illusion that an expansion of Russian influence back west is Putin’s long term dream.
In some ways, this is not too much of an issue as long as we in Europe (I think we should take on ourselves primary responsibility for a change) and the US are determined to see it through in terms of finance and materiel; if we can keep providing air defence systems and enough 155 mm artillery shells and other ordnance, then Ukraine doesn’t need to ration them and they can get on with decimating Russia’s fighting force (I mean that in both the literal and figurative sense). It is relatively easy to keep doing that, as long as everyone’s expectations don’t include a march into Crimea or the Sea of Azov this year, or potentially next. That can happen after the Russian army has been bled white, but it doesn’t really suit the short-term western mindset.
Agree, well written summary of events. The West needs to be prepared to sustain the Ukraine war effort long-term. Probably at least 2-3 more years. Our military industrial base has to be able to manufacture war material at vast bulk and to a cost effective price point so ammo, first aide kit, uniforms, helmets, armour, drones, boots, tentage, everything a military needs to stay in the fight. I’d like to see a European NATO response whereby a list of requirements is drawn up and the whole of Europe agrees to manufacture supplies to meet those requirements. Instead we have had piecemeal donations whenever a western leader wants to score a few political points or a photo opportunity.
Be in no doubt the whole supporting Ukraine to keep fighting is precisely what we should be doing. Either they fight Mad Vlad and drain Russia bleeding him dry or we will have too with all the risks of a nuclear escalation.
The death rate is damaging the future of Russia due to its low birth rate of 1.5 , it will speed up the countries decline !
Does Heappey have no self awareness? That would be the loss of the entire British forces 4x over or more and they are still fighting and if we are honest, winning and growing in capability. The UK government would not have survived a tenth of that politically.
I’m really not sure the Russian’s can be described as winning. They failed to take Kyiv, they failed to take Odessa, couldn’t take Mykolaiv, the sieges of Sumi and Chernihiv where lifted, the Kharkiv offensive drove the Russians back and took a huge amount of their equipment, Kherson was taken back, meanwhile, after the initial surprise, the Russians barely took Severdonetsk and Bakhmut, two very small advance.
At present it seems like the Russians are busy smashing their foreheads bloody at Avdivka, while the ZSU Marines are happily crossing the Dnipro.
Winning?
3 day operation going into it’s 2nd year. Lost a significant portion of your fighting force and it’s most experienced soldiers. Having to be going hat in hand to Iran and North Korea for weapons. Having your supposedly super weapons be exposed as cheap knock off of western weapons. Hundreds of thousands of your working age population flee the country. Watching your military slowly get worn out by your biggest rival for just 5% of the US yearly military budget.…….this list goes on and on and on.
“Winning”
āYourā lol.
āMyā nations forces were halved and hollowed out by āmyā government from 1991 until now and it continues apace. Thousands of āmyā vulnerable children get groomed by foreign invaders that are entering āmyā country at the rate of a million a year.
Do I feel like Iām winning? No.
In an Ukraine situation the whole country would be mobilised. With MPās and tories dodging service or becoming officers far from the fighting. Does the U.K. have a million SLRs and other guns sitting for them all is anyoneās guess.
NATO canāt fight land wars without air supremacy, and the RAF is so small now we wouldnāt have it. Still with our Tiger 2, sorry, Chally 2 wĆ¼nderwaffe killing their tanks at 10-1 we will all be rolling about laughing when they activate T64s. They wonāt stand a chance against the hundreds of CR1 and Chieftains we will bring out of storageā¦and the tank production facilities in Leeds and Newcastle will definitely be churning out new kit wonāt it?
Op Bagration plays out the same way no matter how many times you watch the movie. A major land war in Europe requires political will, national strength and character, and depth of supply. We lack all three.
“Killed or wounded…”, a pointless statistic! Summating someone who has twisted an ankle and has suffered a few cuts and bruises with someone blown into strawberry jam just gives a meaningless number, from which we can draw no conclusions.
Not really…. Cut’s and bruises and twisted ankles are not going to included in the Intel statistical fact gathering data.
It’s a meaningful number, it’s how many people have been taken out of combat.
Good.
The only good Russian is a combat ineffective one…
500 captured tanks is an astonishing figure:
Circa twice the size of Chally 3 numbers;
And +/- 2 Armoured Divisions.
Does that not focus the minds of both political parties?
Doubt it….. An Election is on it’s way.
It is oddly impressive that they are still able to fight given their losses. Utterly crazy stats.
RobW, Also to be concidered is that winter is on the doorstep soon, that may slow things down, although saying that, Folk from those parts of the world are quite hardy ! Just that machinery does not like there kind of temps ! Winter there is harsh at best !š¤
Waiting to see what precision-fires on long supply lines does to winter trench warfare. Presumably down to West maintaining interest, not capability.
What the personnel and materiel losses do show, is how slowly Russia learns from bitter experience. They keep on trying the same tactics and get repelled every time. Before they even consider changing the narrative. Itās almost like their front line Officers donāt or arenāt allowed to use their initiative. Which is a very Soviet era mentality.
Ukraine is between a rock and a hard place. Due to the slow delivery and training using Western equipment. This gave Russia the breathing space to build layered defenses. In particular the laying of vast minefields.
Which meant it was an absolute slog for Ukraine to get through and has prevented manoeuvre warfare. Hence the constant probing along the lines. But they are trying build up a bridgehead opposite Kherson, where the defences arenāt so extensive.
One of the primary factors from this war, is how both sides are using drones, especially suicide and FPV controlled. It would be interesting to see the analysis of military vehicles losses versus the weapon used to knock it out, ie from artillery, guided rocket (HIMARS/MLRS), ATGW, gun system from an armoured vehicle and now drones.
Which I guess is one of the main reasons the US has just bought 60 Gepards from Jordan. Which be part of the next aid package for Ukraine. Amazing to think that Germany was going to scrap all its Gerards it had in storage, just before this conflict kicked off!
Iāve been most intrigued by the rise in tempo of Russian attacks of late and as we have seen a huge rise in causalities and that got me asking the question why? So, a little digging reveal that the next presidential elections in Russia is set for March 2024. So, we are looking at 4 months. Putin knows that if he goes into the election with the war inside Ukraine still ongoing, no matter how much he blames the West, he knows his just a few days special operation inside the Ukraine is going to act like a mill stone around his neck. Far better to go into the elections on a position of strength with all his criteria of a win (Donbass and Luhansk under Russian control) completed
Hence the mass attacks on Avdiivka, which took place after months of allowing the Ukrainians to bash themselves against the Russian defensive line , no doubt in the hope that they would suffer huge losses and use up valuable resources (with even the possibility of allowing them to make gains in one area which would draw in Ukrainian forces and then hold them) Then start your own offensive in the far north which would draw whatever the Ukraine had left and then a few weeks before the start of the winter season strike a blow as far away from those 2 areas as you can get, cut off the salient at Avdiivka capturing a huge chunk of Ukrainian defending forces, which with the overwhelming overreach you have in men and equipment then push out to the Donbass Oblast Border (about 31 miles away) make feint east towards , whilst sending the bulk of your forces north to capture the entire Oblast. Looks good on paper especially if you have the numbers and a lot more yes men saying it can be done. But just like Kursk in 1943 and the Battle of the Bulge in 1944, Russia like the Germans failed at the first hurdle I feel that Putin like Hitler has not only underestimated the resolve of the Ukrainians so have his yes men.
So just like his 3 day special operation almost 2 years ago, it appears that Putin is finding out the hardway (again) that things donāt always go to plan even when you outnumber the other side in everything bar commonsense
Doesn’t help when you can’t stop the Ukraninan Marines coming over the Dnipro either.
The Ukrainians are asking for operational silence on that front. A big push could be about to commence š¤
https://twitter.com/WarClandestine/status/1722653084470362144
The grown up just entered the room. If it is stalemate Russia loses. Ukraine ‘wins’ by not losing. Putin can wreck Ukraine but never hope to conquer it.
Mad Vlad wont worry about an “election” in his banana republic because he knows and engineers the outcome before anyone is allowed to cast a vote. Russia is not a democracy and Putin has about as much risk of being voted out as I have of winning the Euromillions so thats a 1 in 42 million chance.
Mr B wrote:
āāMad Vlad wont worry about an āelectionā in his banana republic because he knows and engineers the outcome before anyone is allowed to cast a vote.āā
That is true, but whilst he can engineer an outcome to his liking, he canāt do the same for public opinion and for a self-styled narcissist egomaniac that is what really counts, plus thereās the added fact that from small acorns do oak trees grow. Saddam, Gadiffi, Saleh, Assad, Mubarak, Barre, al-Bashir were all dictators with absolute power and yet all faced the wrath of public opinion, of which they cared not one jot for whilst Saddam and Assad ground any dissent into the ground, the rest didnāt and today only Assad remains in power and that was only due to the intervention of Moscow and Tehran . My point, Putin knows he is walking on thin ice and as long as his few day special operation drags on, then so does his power base become weaker.
Yeah, I saw that about the elections as well. It will likely mean, Russia’s forces will be doing their utmost, for more advances and try to gain more territory leading up to the elections. Trying to show the populace that Russia is still in the game and making progress. But it will be another Bahkmut, except without the assistance of Wagner. Ukraine has shown that it can easily trade space for Russian Lives and materiel.
It was said that Russia had as many as 10,000 MBTs, with approximately 7000 or more of those in storage. Russia must be burning through the easily available in-use stocks that were in the East, high North and near the Baltics. Leaving very few for those commands. Plus there’s the lengthy reactivation and modification processes for the T72s and T80s, not to mention the T62s. There must be a tipping point, where they can no longer keep up with demand. Especially when you also consider that the new T90Ms are coming out of the factory at lower than expected numbers. I would expect Russia are having similar production problems with manufacturing Ka52 and Su30/35s etc.
What comes next though? The slog towards Tokmak and then the Sea of Azov, is I believe still a strategic aim for Ukraine. Where they can split Russia’s forces in two. Thereby significantly lengthening the logistic route for those in the western half. Though it has also recognized that the area south of Kherson, does not have the same level of defences as the defence south of Robotyne. Does Ukraine have the means to ferry heavy armour over the Dnipro River? This may be a key for further exploiting the beachhead and pushing towards Crimea!
Russia have built up trench defences all along their Ukrainian border, right up to Belarus. But it does make you wonder, why Ukraine hasn’t tried something like a left hook near the Kharkiv region?
ā Su30/35sā
I donāt think they really can make them now – maybe at all.
The would have to reverse the designs to remove all of foreign bits that started to creep in.
So guard that dishwasherā¦..it might be Mad Vladās only hope!
The next problem is that all the specialist metallurgy was always done in Ukraineā¦.
As Iāve speculated before the Ukrainian invasion was about seizing those capabilities back.
Drones have clearly had a very big impact, it will be interesting to see how we impliment them into our armed forces and in what numbers.
Analysis: Ukraine has ‘turned conventional warfare on its head’Despite Ukraine not having a navy, it is continually “hammering away” at Russia’s – one of the largest navies in the world – and succeeding, military analyst Sean Bell has said.
One of the most recent successes for Ukrainian troops has been the targeting of another Russian calibre missile corvette.
Enough damage has been done to leave the ship unusable for the foreseeable future, Bell said, speaking on an episode of his new Red Matrix podcast.
“It just shows how Ukraine keeps hammering away, particularly at the Russian navy,” he said.
This tactic has meant “conventional warfare has been turned on its head”.
“Russia should be dominating the Black Sea, but actually what Ukraine is doing very, very well is gradually nibbling away at them, whether at sea, in the harbour or at dry door,” Bell said.
“What should happen is, a large navy should be able to dominate a country that doesn’t have one.
“One of the complications here is the Black Sea is controlled by the Bosphorus straits, Turkey controls those and since the start of the war, no military vessels have been allowed through.”
Bell said Russia has been steadily losing resources in the Black Sea, and it has to be careful to conserve what it has until the war finishes.
“It just shows how a minnow of a nation can still have a profoundly large impact on what is one of the world’s largest navies,” he said.”
Ukraine releases footage of damaged Russian ship in Crimea
LINK
So I think it’s worth disecting these figures, noting that this is ‘killed and wounded’, and that these figures are extremely likely to be inflated. So let’s call it 250,000. If you make a rough assumption of a 3/1 ratio between injured/killed. That comes to about 62,500-65,000 KIA a figure which is still much higher than the 35,000 estimated by Mediazona. But we have at least ballpark figures between 35k (very low end) to perhaps more like 65k+ in my rough view.
I do note the comments around loss of interest by many nations, I somewhat disagree. I think there’s a sense that what else precisely can we give? (European powers particularly). With the summer counteroffensive “paused” (defeated or bought to a standstill or whatever phrase we like)I think we have rather come to a crossroads. Russia is highly likely to continue pushing and I see nothing to suggest Ukraine is going to be able to continue this attritional war beyond another 12-18months.
I think the true mistake here would be politicians choosing to forget about national defence, and industrial base that has to support it. This is the last wake up call we are going to get, and it’s time someone in government (at this point I don’t care of the strip) gets serious about building up the armed forces to have the mass and stamina to fight a conventional war again.
Very sad that all these young people should be put to death for one man’s demented view of his own importance.
“Again”…… History repeats itself.
History never repeats itself, it ryhmes.
Those figures might be correct, then how on earth Russia still fighting on the line? Instead Ukraine would have overrun entire Russia by now!
I say ‘ say it like it is,or not at all’, i have something to say ! This is by no means a dig at those who serve, but those who wield the whip !
When a country goes to war with another it is at the behest of the man/woman in power and advisors. (What say in the matter do the people of that country have ?)
A soilder is there to serve by choice or in some countrys by force, who do they serve, the people of said country or the person/persons in power over them.
To take a life/lives during war is acceptable as long as rules of engagement are followed,( who’s rules of engagement ? Im sure civilians would have something to say about that !) Who does the Soilder serve and protect, his/her master or the people of his/her country.
In Civilian life if a person takes a life in the defence of themselfs,loved ones or others when justified, they are arrested,charged and put behind bars for 15 yrs or more !
When a Soilder takes a life in the very same circumstances but during a campain of war it is concidered acceptable as the one who gave the order is responcible ! Not the one pulling the trigger ( even if its collateral damage ‘ innocent civilians’).
Who do you truely protect, the whip ? or the people ?
If not for the soilder i would most likely be speaking German or some other language,thank you for your service past/present and the mothers who brought you/them into this worldš if not for the petulant person in power war would not be so common.
What does it take to change the essence of the human race to live as one in harmony with our home Earth. In Time i hope ! As im sure we will eventualy face otherworldly challenges.
Hi Mark, Human nature is very difficult to change. Genetics have a large part to play, that goes all the way back to our ape ancestors. Where they struggled for food, but also the rights for breeding. A lot of human desires are based around these instincts, for not only surviving but producing offspring. Which inevitably leads to conflict, as others with a similar requirement are trying the same. As there is a need to control and maintain your resources, but denying it to others who will exploit for their own needs.
Perhaps an overly simplistic analysis, but sadly true. Our base instincts drive a lot of our behaviour. Which can get worse when in tribal packs, think of a football match and the supporters behaviour to each other. Put weapons into these fans hands, remove the police presence and what would be the likely outcome?
Conflicts between Nations is no different, just on a larger scale.
PS as one who has served, I did not glorify the taking of lives. It was however necessary!
DaveyB, I understand your example..i will say no more on the subject, ‘Least we forget’ with respect thank you for your service.
The estimable Forces News YouTube channel has posted a very interesting vid of Ajax being tested last month on Salisbury Plain by the Household Cavalry Regiment
Some very positive comments from officers and men of the Blues and Royals about reliability, capability etc with no injuries being reported. Its well worth a look but due to links being moderated, i’m going to post the link underneath
Youtube – Forces News – Rare access to British Army’s monster new battlefield vehicle
And here is the link
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-d4CaCfyqio
As I suspected, the youtube link has indeed been moderated, but anybody interested should be able to find it using the data in the first post
At the risk of being lambasted for suggesting that both parties are likely to need to concede land in the end.
Does the panel believe ?
A. Russia will eventually need to withdraw to pre-2022 invasion borders ?
B. Ukraine will need to concede territory lost since the invasion, but not as much as they initially lost – but concede that Russia has created a land bridge to Crimea and captured more of the Donbas than they had.
C. Ukraine can recapture the land lost and take Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk and push Russia back to pre-2014 borders.
D. Russia capture all of Ukraine
E. Something else.
As Iāve always said both sides are going to have to concede some land or this is going on forever. I canāt see a victory for either, other than both claiming a victory and not getting or reclaiming as much land as both would like.
Interesting points – perhaps George could turn your post into a Poll.? š
Itās utterly amazing our defence intelligence can confidently come up with a number for Russia without any issue however what is more telling is they canāt or wonāt more likely come up with a number of Ukrainian casualties? . After all Ukraine is a close ally ,the west is funding and directing the Ukrainian war effort so itās laughable they.canāt let Joe public know the figures yet entirely predictable.
Government estimates on everything are always wrong the previous track record on everything down the ages is there in black and white for all to see. Why this one will be any different is anyones guess ? unless they have dispensed with prof Fergusonās ZX spectrum computer modelling programmes and got in honest brokers to try be accurate.
For those of us not taken in by the one sided propaganda itās obvious the reason we arenāt being told is because as Iāve lamented more times than I care to remember on this topic is they (Ukrainian losses) are just as bad and probably worse.
For clarity the economist citing US data has 70,000 dead Ukrainians and a further 120,000 wounded. This isnāt your other side of the fence commentators who have far far higher numbers.
Since we arenāt allowed to be given official truthful estimates one can only assume itās a complete shit show with extreme WW1 style casualty figures on both sides which will undoubtedly be the reality for these 2 rotten regimes neither of whom give twa shites about their respective populations.
I look forward to the UK gov providing numbers on Ukraines losses in the same detail ,see where all our money and munitions are goingā¦ā¦..
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I think we are both reading from the same page Mr Los Pollos,in the not too distant future i think Egg will be very popular here ļ»æšļ»æ
Indeed sir , as the UKDJ posters most prominent critic of this war & premier Artiste I believe none of the cheer leaders of Ukraine in here ever come back and provide the evidence for anything contrary to what I point out about the lack of success or progress on the failed CO or war in general ( some good lads though who are perfectly sane and I enjoy their posts on other mattersš)
however that said
bottom line this war stinks ,we shouldnāt be involved , U.K. military needs come 1st & Ukraine is the most corrupt nation in Europe and we shouldnāt be sending shed loads O cash.
as big Dodd or Reuters opined back in the dayā¦..
āThe further a society drifts from the truth the more it will hate those that speak itā
welcome to the Western world 2023ā¦ā¦.
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Main thing is giving Ukraine everything it needs To succeed.
Asraam production should be kept going
to keep them supplied along with everything else the U.K. can make and source to help. While the U.K. does supply some it needs to do much more.
All propaganda.