The UK Ministry of Defence has released a new intelligence update on the war in Ukraine, detailing the severe impact of Ukrainian operations on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.
The report, published on 27 February 2025, highlights how Ukrainian forces have significantly constrained Russia’s naval power, forcing major shifts in strategy.
The update states that before Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Moscow viewed its Black Sea Fleet as a key component of its maritime dominance. However, after three years of war, this fleet has been significantly weakened.
“Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Russia’s leadership almost certainly perceived the Russian Federation Navy and the Black Sea Fleet as integral components of their maritime power. After three years of war, Russia’s naval capabilities in the Black Sea have been significantly constrained through highly effective Ukrainian operations.”
Despite being vastly outnumbered at the start of the war, the Ukrainian Navy has inflicted significant losses on Russian forces, using a combination of drone attacks, anti-ship missiles, and naval raids. The UK intelligence update confirms:
“Since 24 February 2022, Ukrainian forces have destroyed or damaged at least 24 Russian vessels operating in the Black Sea. This includes the sinking of the Black Sea Fleet flagship, Slava-Class cruiser ‘MOSKVA’, which had previously been described as a cutting-edge air defence platform.”
The loss of Moskva, which was the largest Russian warship sunk in combat since World War II, was a major symbolic and operational blow to Russia’s fleet.
Russia Forced to Relocate its Black Sea Fleet
As a direct result of Ukraine’s targeting of Russian warships and infrastructure, the Black Sea Fleet has been forced to relocate its major assets from its historic base in Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, in the eastern Black Sea.
“As a result, Russia’s Black Sea Fleet has been forced to move all of its major assets from its historic base in Sevastopol to Novorossiysk in the Eastern Black Sea. Russian units operating in the region have also been forced to adapt their tactics and change the areas in which they operate.”
This represents a major shift in Russia’s naval strategy, as Sevastopol was historically the centre of Russian naval operations in the Black Sea. The relocation to Novorossiysk suggests Moscow is seeking greater security for its remaining warships, following a string of devastating Ukrainian attacks on Crimean naval infrastructure.
Despite these setbacks, the UK intelligence update warns that Russia retains the ability to conduct long-range missile strikes on Ukraine from the Black Sea.
“Despite Russia’s Black Sea Fleet currently being limited to the Eastern Black Sea, it retains the ability to conduct long-range strikes into Ukraine in support of land operations.”
This suggests that while Ukraine has successfully degraded Russian naval operations, the threat from Kalibr cruise missile strikes and other naval-launched attacks remains a serious concern.
I’d say that was a significant understatement.
We know that RN & RAF could finish the job in an afternoon.
UKR did that without a navy or airforce! For perspective!!
We know that all the vaunted defensive systems are useless against last generation weapons and mashups.
More nonsense from know-it-alls!
Must be embarrassing having to troll for Putin…
but better than being sent to the meat-grinder…
Fetch me a needle and thread, my sides are splitting 😆
I’m guessing that counts for humour in the 4th rate impoverished backwater you live in?
In open seas yes an Astute would have a field day, but the Black Sea is different. Sending a sub there doesn’t look feasible.
We could however deploy the RAF to Romania and use Storm Shadow. That’s the only option I can see. Not that we will of course.
Storm Shadow could be modified for an AShM role.
Truck mounted Harpoonski worked perfectly well for UKR. That was a UK lash up.
Wouldn’t fancy flying a jet in range of the air defence systems to drop bombs, which is all the RAF has available these days.
Paveway IVs have a reasonable range, but I have to admit nobody would call them stand-off.
From a high fling F35B the risks are very low.
Given how useless the Russian systems are I doubt they could lock onto an F35B never mind hit it.
That’s an expensive gamble… It’s generally accepted that stealth will be overpowered by the power of a military radar at 20ish miles, the exact range is classified, it could be down into the teens of miles, but it’s not likely to be close enough to allow an f35 to use a paveway with impunity.
We will know exactly.
That is the function of the RIVET to hoover the EM outputs of everything.
Really? So Storm Shadow doesn’t exist? Spear 3 isn’t coming online imminently?
We don’t have hellfire for our Apaches?
Do you know the range of paveway or even a dumb bomb when lobed from 30,000 feet at Mach 2? It is a long long way before it hits the ground.
I lost it at Hellfire and Apache for anti ship. And lobbing dumb bombs at ships OMFG that’s delusional.Well done for demonstrating how little you know 🤡
To be fair, I think he was trying to talk about Paveway LGB. Being an ex-JTAC, I know the release and flight profile of Paveway. It does have a glide capability, though not as much as JDAM for example. However, the problem isn’t the launch profile of Paveway. The issue is if the target is moving and you then have to lase the target. If its static the GPS will get it near the target anyway. If we are considering using a Typhoon for example, it either self-designates or has a buddy lasing the target. This is then the problem, as the illuminating aircraft will need to keep the laser on the target all through the terminal phase of the Paveway’s flight. Therefore, it will clearly be seen by a ship’s air search radar and then can be targeted. The F35 will have a similar problem, it will have to get close to the ship to keep it illuminated. Where it may be spotted by IR or visually, as well as by radar at those ranges.
The safer option for Typhoon, is to use Brimstone 3. This allows the aircraft to approach from low level, pop up over the horizon, find the target, feed the data to the Brimstones, and launch a mass swarm of them at the ship. Then get behind the horizon as quickly as possible. Against something Frigate sixed it won’t sink the ship, unless it can detonate a magazine. However a mass of Brimstones could effectively mission kill a ship.
Two other options would be Storm Shadow and Spear-3. Storm Shadow currently does not have the ability to hit a moving target. It does have all the right parts to allow it to do this however, but will require a software upgrade to allow it to do so. If some of the software from Sea Venom can be ported across, then why not? Spear-3 has been recently fired from a Typhoon during a trial. This was to to make sure the weapon did a number of key things when released. The first was to ensure it could flip over 180 degrees, so that the wings were now at the top, as it’s fitted to the launcher upside down. The second was to check the turbojet would activate after the manoeuvre and thirdly that it could hit the designated target after release. This is a first stage of a flight trial. There is a lot more to do to expand the acquisition and release envelop. But Typhoon could easily be integrated with Spear-3. If push comes to shove, it will be done via a urgent operational requirement (UOR). But currently there isn’t the budget for a full integration.
If the UOR route is taken, then it means the Typhoon’s attack profile totally changes. As it could then stay up high to detect the ship’s emissions, then launch a Spear-3 package at the ship from a safe distance. The package would have a very good chance of mission killing the ship, especially if it include a couple of Spear-EWs!
The sinking of the battleship Novorossijsk can be counted as ‘sunk in combat’?
It is if you believe the stories about Decima MAS!
Ask Admiral Cunningham… 🙂