The U.S. National Intelligence Council has released the seventh edition of its quadrennial report ‘Global Trends 2040: A More Contested World’.
The report is an unclassified assessment of the forces and dynamics that the NIC anticipates are likely to shape the national security environment over the next 20 years.
“Global Trends 2040 identifies four structural forces that will shape the future – demographics, the environment, economics, and technology – and assesses how they affect decisions and outcomes. It further describes five potential scenarios for the world in 2040, based on different combinations of the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertainties. It ends with a series of graphics displaying key demographic trends in nine geographic regions.
The NIC has delivered Global Trends to each incoming or returning U.S. presidential administration since 1997 as an unclassified assessment of the strategic environment, reflecting a broad range of expert opinion in the United States and abroad. The report is intended to help policymakers and citizens anticipate and prepare for a range of possible futures. The NIC supports the Director of National Intelligence in her role as head of the Intelligence Community and is the IC’s center for long-term strategic analysis. Since its establishment in 1979, the NIC has served as a bridge between the intelligence and policy communities, a source of deep substantive expertise on intelligence issues, and a facilitator of IC collaboration and outreach.”
The full report is available here, along with a five-year strategic outlook for each geographic region. It is understood that a wide variety of experts, domestically and internationally, were consulted by the NIC as it conducted its analysis.
The final report represents the views of the NIC, according to the agency.
Let’s get into the report
According to the report, the next 20 years will be more volatile with a heightened risk of conflict, at least until states establish new rules, norms, and boundaries for the more disruptive areas of competition.
It says:
“States will face a combination of highly destructive and precise conventional and strategic weapons, cyber activity targeting civilian and military infrastructure, and a confusing disinformation environment. Regional actors, including spoilers such as Iran and North Korea, will jockey to advance their goals and interests, bringing more volatility and uncertainty to the system.”
As for ‘other major powers’ besides the USA and China, the report says that Russia is ‘likely to remain a disruptive power’; while the UK is ‘likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus.
The report also states that the United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence.
Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.
“The United Kingdom is likely to continue to punch above its weight internationally given its strong military and financial sector and its global focus. The United Kingdom’s nuclear capabilities and permanent UN Security Council membership add to its global influence. Managing the economic and political challenges posed by its departure from the EU will be the country’s key challenge; failure could lead to a splintering of the United Kingdom and leave it struggling to maintain its global power.”
Very interesting last sentence that is bang on. Just as well our country is so heavily influenced by cheap spivs and undereducated voters that care more about immigration than they do about the economic future of the islands!
For someone who names themselves after the ‘Father of History’ renowned for his heavily researched and considered accounts – you are very quick to throw around generalised insults with very little substance.
Interesting that many of the Spiv’s you speak of would clearly have preferred to remain in the EU to benefit from all of its little rackets. Funny that.
The last time that you replied to a post of mine, you threatened me with violence. Why should I respect anything that you write….nasty little man!
blimey…………
That I don’t recall.
Sounds very unlike me, especially in a public sphere. I’m happy to stand corrected if you’d care to highlight the post.
If I did though it’s usually not without provocation. You’re safe to forget about it and move on, as quite clearly I have.
It’s ok, he’s just grouchy….. (Up Vote, Smiley face !!!! )
If you are posting on your computer CPW, try right clicking on your mouse when you get to the end of your last sentence. You should be presented with a list with emojis at the top. Just click on Emoji and select the appropriate icon…it works on windows ten any way!
Twisted knickers lol!
Can’t swear to it, but I think H stated he lectured on politics or similar at one point (apology if untrue). If so, it hardly comes as a surprise – recall the ‘triggers’.
Similar vane, thought not H at all. The vociferous & offensive reaction to the well considered ED&I report 2020 makes it plain that a modern PhD is no guarantee of sane response, just a sense of entitled (yes, the irony!) fury.
It was thirty years teaching philosophy, he told that Rhodesian guy a few weeks ago.
Triggers are funny though.
My mother was born in Bulawayo…the rest of her family are from Durban! You are about as genuine as Arthur Scargill’s comb-over!
Scrabbling in the dirt now eh?
I’m afraid the position of ‘oh you disagree with me so clearly you’re uneducated’ is staggeringly common this day and age. Mouth frothing fury really does tickle me though 🙂
So you would imagine Gavin. But you will never know the answer to that…will you!
If I’d have known my apparently threatening previous response would’ve caused so much bed wetting I’d have started years ago!
Poor blokes started sleeping with the bedside lamp on.
Quod erat demonstrandum….you nasty little man!
What a typically aloof response. I wouldn’t expect anything less from someone with such superiority complex. Interestingly I’m still waiting on proof of my alleged aggression, and if you quantify a modicum of stiff sarcasm as threatening then you really must be soaking the mattress nightly. If you insist on visiting forums such as this you really should mentally prepare yourself for a little passive aggression from ex-military types. Also you seem to have fixated on the ‘angry little man’ statement as some sort of offensive term… I actually quite like that description. Standing at 5ft 9 and having fixed… Read more »
Of course I meant nasty little man (not angry), but the edit function has been removed. I do hope my mistake doesn’t dampen your enthusiasm towards disliking me, you scared old fart.
Well, I must admit, I am surprised at the ease with which you were ‘flushed’ out. I think that most contributors will now understand ‘the nature of the beast’. Oh and thanks for the advice about visiting forums ‘like this’, I would start by taking your own advice!
Oh please don’t credit yourself. I don’t need any flushing out when it’s a case of pointing out hypocritical comments from individuals such as yourself. It comes with great ease, and a little pleasure I must admit.
I take great comfort in how unprepared you are to level any serious argument other than the same old vague generalisations and how quickly you fall back on your apparent superior intellect and education.
Quite clearly, well educated intelligent types (if that is indeed what you are) appear quite capable of making themselves look like complete wazzocks.
Wow, you’ve certainly got me there! Consider me ‘flushed out’ 😁.
He rubbished a Rhodesian guy a few weeks ago for daring to say he had a right to choose whether to have a vaccine or not. Bokkies love people like him, we call them stomkops. Carry on, he needs the therapy.
How shocking!
Madam please calm down. You must take a deep breath and repeat to yourself, “keep calm and Brexit” x100
Herodotus that seems a slightly jaundiced view if the UK’s exit from the EU. Still it matters not a jot what pro-EU people think in the UK as we are out. Also I voted out so I’m quite happy we are out as well…nothing to do with immigration and everything to do with an unaccountable and overly bureaucratic organization run by the French and German’s for the benefit of the French and German’s. As shown by the EU they see us as a threat rather than a natural friend, ally and partner. It’s time for us to reposition ourselves with… Read more »
What an absolute pile of crap, we left the EU with a deal that means we trade with them not far off as was. We also have the benefit of trading with the rest of the world not having to abide by EU rules and pay them for it either.
Project fear is over, it was all a scare tactic that never was. Brexit isnt the disaster we got force fed, realise that, get over it and move on.
Where do you get your economics 101 from?
There are one or two fishermen that might disagree with you and the custims checks have not even started yet; show again in July with referenced facts please.
I suspect that we have not even begun to see the real impact of Brexit. One thing is for sure though, all those that voted for Brexit have inadvertently given a huge boost to the independence movement in Scotland. I wonder how stupid the chums of fatty Francois feel now?
‘Undereducated voters’ makes you sound like a remainer, perhaps on a par with the notably superior Anthony Grayling?
Come along H, play nicely, or you will be made to sit at the front with the speccy briefcase kids, where George can keep an eye on you….
You don’t want your UKDJ report to say
“dosent play well with others”.
I’ll have you know I was one of those undereducated chaps who voted for freedom from EU tyranny (you’re welcome by the way), I left school with my cycling proficiency and one width swimming certificate in the early 1980’s, served me very well as the captain of a pedelo, I can tell you….
Hi John. Have to say, I think the UK benefited greatly from the years that we were a member of the EU. For example, after the disastrous decade of the 1970’s where the UK was basically becoming the poor boy of Europe.. Thatchers policies and the fact we were in the EU bought a lot of wealth into this country. I think we can be grateful for the years we were in the EU. Personally I voted remain but I excepted the outcome, so the country must move on now. But, I have to say.. There is one very big… Read more »
Absolutely John, serious issues to be addressed, no question about it. I agree that at the time ( early 1970’s) UK membership of the Common Market was a good idea and the UK benefited from the relationship. Unfortunately a common market wasn’t enough for the leadership of that organisation and they continue to march towards a full federal Europe. The democratic results of a referendum need to be fully implemented. If they are ignored, then public trust in the democratic system would have dropped through the floor. There’s a number of things going on in Northern Ireland, I have to… Read more »
Hello John. OK, fair enough response mate, appreciate your return message. We may not quite agree on every issue, but you do make some fair points.
just out of curiosity why did you vote to leave? (i have a project that i have to do about the EU and why people would wanna leave it) i thought it gave a country an economic boost.
I can answer that one nate….it was largely about what they perceived as uncontrolled immigration. Not that anyone who comments on this site is a racist…as such!
I wondered how long it would be before the old racist drum would get a beating. Do you not tire of the same hollow accusations?
Tell me old fart, do you think me a racist for voting leave? Asking for a friend.
If the apparently ‘perceived immigration’ is the only argument you can come up with for the people who voted leave then it appears those who voted remain are also as poorly educated as those who voted leave. The days of discussing immigration and immediately branding every single person a racist who mentions the word are over. Issues and benefits in equal measure exist with immigration and both need to be discussed properly. For the past two decades the issues over the topic have been swept under the carpet and it was forced into the political ‘hot potato’ category that if… Read more »
The answer to your enquiry lies in your first sentence!
You have also answered my point, thank you.
Yawn
I’ll try to do better in my replies if you promise that the next film that you make is funny!
I have literally never ever in my life ever heard that before.
Immigration was a cause, because wages were being undercut. Foreigners live on less even to the point of sending money home. That is not racist, it is a fact. Economic migration. (See my last two paragraphs as I cannot cut and paste on my phone). People could not become nurses or doctors because they now require a university education, foreign students pay more so fewer places for UK nationals, so we take foreign staff from places that are organised enough to invest in them. This is perceived as being part of the migration problem. The fundamental problem here in the… Read more »
Sad to see you reverting to type H, as your recent posts have been either constructive or humerous…now your getting on your high horse once again.
Just one of several factors. You do see complex issues one-dimensionally. Perhaps you are not well informed or well educated.
Morning Nate, well apparently I’m not that bright and a racist bigot, according to some rabidly blue starry flag waving contributors. The reason I voted to leave was mainly down to the increasingly federal direction of the EU. The reality is very simple, I believe in the sanctity of the sovereign state, with an elected Parliament and judicial system, directly and wholly responsible to the good People of this United Kingdom. The EU has steadily moved from a common market and is moving towards full Statehood. It’s a direction of travel many in the EU are perfectly happy with, good… Read more »
“I believe in the sanctity of the sovereign state”
Do you support Scottish independence then John?
If it is what they want, get on with it.
Democracy.
I certainly support the democratic process, they had a referendum and voted to stay mate…..
Everybody supports the democratic process John that wasn’t my question.
If you believe in the sanctity of the sovereign state then you should believe in Scotland, as a country, becoming a sovereign state and ending its political union with another country.
Absolutely SS, and as I have pointed out….the Brexit campaign may well be the deciding factor in Scottish independence vote…these chaps aren’t very clever!
Well SS, ( sounds dodgy), not everyone believes in democracy, hence all the BREXIT deniers like Harold / Herodotus below.
They had a democratic vote and democratically decided to remain. So yep I support democracy…
I would hardly say that’s not believing in democracy, do you think all Labour/Tory/Lib Dem politicians and voters just forget about their beliefs when they lose an election? Of course they don’t, they carry on arguing their case, that’s actual democracy.
You still haven’t answered my question, ok I will try make it a bit easier, when Scotland have another referendum, whenever that may be, will you show integrity and stick to your beliefs and support Scotland becoming a sovereign state? As that is what you believe in?
They had the once-in-a-generation referendum and chose to stay in the UK. Next chance in 2039.
I believe in the union Graham but I also watch the news, according to reports Johnson will allow another referendum if the SNP win the upcoming elections, as he knows it will be inevitable and this is the best possible time with the economic fallout from covid to make the case for the union. Unfortunately there is no such thing as “once in a generation” vote when allowing a country in a political union a vote for their future, if they want a referendum, and win local and national elections with independence in their manifesto, then they have their mandate… Read more »
I have just seen JC’s reply….stereotypical or what? Whenever this motley crew respond to this question they start hauling up the flag of patriotism and the sovereignty of parliament. This is nothing more than the flag of convenience that they like to drape over the real reason. We all know what that is, but few on these pages would admit to it. If the future of this country lies in this sort self-deception then God help us.
As opposed to you who hauls up the old racism flag, you boring old fart.
Pretty much spot on mate….
Hi Mr High and Mighty, l remember you hectoring a guy a few weeks ago who disagreed with you. Reading your responses you appear to be someone who can’t agree to others having a different opinion. Throwing your toys out of the pram because of perceived intellectual superiority is a bloody sad way to debate. I also remember you claiming to have taught philosophy for many years to young volk. I get this internet thing now, it allows people like you to sound off and rubbish other guys beliefs, then there appears to be a few on here sadly. Join… Read more »
Fortunately you don’t run this site. I assume your interest is based on your own need to be agreed with and sadly, your own inadequacies! Your line of criticism doesn’t work with me….far too naïve! By the way, are you from Liverpool?
What is that Engels expression?
Ah yes, sad git.
And I thought we were getting on H, oh well, what’s all the anger issues about?
You seem to be determined to try and upset the applecart, all rather obvious H.
Come along, cheer up, dry those eyes and take the blood pressure tablets and give peace a chance…..
I think we are getting along just fine John…considerable differences of course, but I have never had a problem with that! Unlike some on this site (not you) that like to hide behind their personal pride in their own opinions, I never hold grudges! Ask CPW!
Hi Nate,
My impression is that a significant number voted to rub the noses of those in Westminster who had seemed to have ignored realities and opinions of those from the nether regions.
That was a partial reason for me.
Not being part of a seemingly unaccountable entity was my main reason.
Plus, we should never have joined in the first place. The problems of the early 1970s were internal to the UK.
As George pointed out some time back….UKDJ is not affiliated to the Tory Party….it isn’t your club chum!
Oh dear, I see it’s back to toys out of the pram, business as usual H … Cheer up chum, I won’t take it personally as I assume your just overtired……
Herodotus, Guardian reader perchsnce?
lol
Funny how a brief comment about a topic elicits such a chorus of indignation. Not a white van in sight, then a veritable plague of them….blowing their horns and banging their builders barrows. ‘Nigel Farage’s Brexiteers’ proudly marching towards the bottom of the dung heap!
Funny how you managed to pipe up unprovoked as the initial poster casting aspersions at those who would disagree with you, you old fart.
In answer to your question, someone has to be first and I probably wouldn’t cast aspersions on those that agreed with me. The description of me as an old fart is, by the way, quite apposite! I seem to have the ability to get up your olfactory nerve quite effectively. Yours respectfully ‘old fart’.
Quite interestingly the nerve you speak of is non functioning in my ‘little’ head, courtesy of a TBI from a few years ago.
Curious that I still seem able to sense bullsh*t though… 🙂
It is also an early symptom of Covid 🤢.
That’s 62 posts I have drummed up for UKDJ since yesterday evening. Not bad going on a quiet news day!
Reading this stuff you write really shows what you are. An arrogant prick.
That’s alright Twat van der Jerk. That’s 64 posts now!
Mainly Greece, but latterly in Rome 😜
That’s 52% of the active Electorate who you have just insulted and belittled. Perhaps democracy is not for you.
156 pages… Just like Geography lessons at High School, I was a bit bored
We will still be able to punch above our weight
But I would hope from a Military side of things that we do and will have eventually expanded our foot print.
Feel time’s approaching when aspirations to grow militarily become unavoidable necessities for more than just UK in Europe.
‘Punch above your weight’ is not a good phrase ,or even a compliment, it actual suggests the UK is an underdog in global military ranking.
Maybe that is the irony of the statement.
been the same for decades now.
Well they are in the process of a big downsizing so it isn’t too far off. Having a smaller, if even a more capable force leads to other problems like the force being stretched to thin and longer deployments, ect. Not a good situation for the troops.
I wasnt a TROOP , I was a MATELOT!
Better than batting below the line.
Its an oft used phrase for countries with certain military capabilites.
so we are weak?
Not at all, we have niche capabilites that most other Western Nations would love to have, aside from the US that is. Never militarily weak, sometimes however we have without depth, and the ability to sustain losses, but the real weakness is in the political led choices, from people who have never served and are only concerned about votes and popularist policies.
we may be a mere dog but we have a heart of wolf!
And Afghanistan and Iraq have shown we tend to bite off more than we can chew.
Only by the political led choices mate, not on one occasion did we get overmatched by either the Iraq or Afghan opposition in a military context. As ever it was the political choices, both old and current, which decided what we could chew and what we couldnt. Cheers.
It’s a size reference. The UK has less than 70 million people, which is fuck all in global terms, and our military isn’t particularly large, but we remain the US’s most valuable military partner because our forces actually do shit on the world stage.
Compare that with Germany and Japan, bigger economies with larger populations but no willingness to actually contribute their military to any causes.
A middleweight fighter can “punch above his weight” against a heavyweight all he wants, he’ll still lose.
Said Goliath to David…… !
“You come against me with sword and spear and javelin, but I come against you in the name of the Lord Almighty, the God of the armies of Israel, whom you have defied. 46 This day the Lord will hand you over to me, and I’ll strike you down and cut off your head. Today I will give the carcasses of the Philistine army to the birds of the air and the beasts of the earth, and the whole world will know that there is a God in Israel. 47 All those gathered here will know that it is not… Read more »
Its all chuff, similar to the vast majority of your posts.
Oh, I’m overwhelmed by the brilliance of this riposte. What’s next, insult my mother? Run along, little boy, run along
Why would anyone want to insult your mother? She looks great now she has shaved off the beard!
Personally I think it’s all B——S.
I mean logically the Church of England is a very real physical entity – such as our peer enemies may be, where as the (potentially not so real) lord almighty could been compared to the UK with our imaginary FFBNW equipment… Rather apt don’t you think?
Incoherent gibberish.
It really isn’t you twirp.
More incoherent gibberish.
A yank religious zealot….delete/insert religion, same result, total garbage.
You just don’t get it, do you? Not surprising given the delusions expressed on this board.
Moslty your delusions, certainly as a waffling yank religious zealot….boy! Keep posting, your versions of events can be amusing.
The first record of a motorcycle, “The roar of David’s triumph could heard throughout the land”.
Britain is depending more and more on it’s allies to help in it’s own defense. Not a good situation. They should be taking a lesson from the Aussie’s who believe that a country should be able to defend itself and not depend on others like America to come to their rescue. The total opposite of Germany and the rest of the EU.
I think you need to take a serious look at the capabilities of the U.K. and Australia and I have two Aussie relations, one of whom works for the R.A.N.
Please stop using apostrophes in places where you don’t need them.
I was answering dan Stephen. Bit of confusion I think.
Australia’s military relationship with the US is absolutely fundamental to its defence. Without the ally of the US card to play Australia would be a lightweight, no two ways about it.
Err…..I think you’ll find its many EU countries sponging off of the US and UK for defence. As they have for a hundred years and more. In WW1 France and Italy relied not only on US and UK troops but also their money ( unpaid still i might add). WW2 – nuff said….
Post war….US and UK ground forces in Europe, navies, and nuclear forces ( UK V bombers were an elite pathfinder force for US SAC followups over easrtern europe and USSR)…..etc etc.
Aussies are good, with decent capabilites but are absoluty incapabale of operating alone in its defence, either at home or overseas deployments. If you think this is incorrect then please do enhance your basic strategic knowledge with research.
people like them are the reason the empire fell. tut tut. SMH.
Uh? Not sure i understand. The Aussies were fanatically pro- empire. There are for example many pictures of civic events in Australia ( from army recruiting to opening a new school) pre-war that showed Union flags proudly ( often without an Austraian flag in sight!).
Then we shafted them by joining the EEC.
just cuz u have nukes. that doesn’t mean ur strong! u can’t eve use the bloody things in a normal war. otherwise ur seriously f ed. like why the f would u even need a carrier in a defensive war! I suppose u also think that we are the strongest country in the universe cuz we have a queen!
Firstly, unfortuantly nate you are incorrect, as the use of nukes (however not Trident) was an accepted and trained for concept to stop the Russian Divisons heading for the channel ports, during the cold war with the use of tactical nuclear strikes on both Soviet lead elements and rear Divisions. Secondly, you stated the use of the carrier during a “defensive war”….WTF is a defensive war, as all warfare will involve offensive action, either at tactical or strategic level. This post of your alone confirms your massive lack of military knowledge in regard to strategy and tactics. ALL wars involve… Read more »
Our armed forces may be smaller after this last Review but we are of course able to defend the UK and our BOTs without the assistance of Allies. Otherwise expeditionary operations are and have always been Coalition operations.
Although very long, the report is refreshingly free of the jargon that littered the Integrated Review. It is also better at setting out the context of its analyses- population changes, economic growth etc. It offers different scenarios for 2040 on a best to worst case basis. It is inevitably light on solutions. A bit like the IR, it tries to cover so much ground that it is hard to draw clear conclusions about priorities for action. I also wonder whether, if written 2 years ago, it would even have mentioned a global pandemic, which has turned out to be the… Read more »
It’s interesting how the last paragraph mentions Scottish separation.
This has to be the biggest priority for all governments, countering the SNP and putting Scottish separation to bed once and for all.
Devolution was Blair’s biggest mistake, it has totally undermined the UK.
I read the whole document earlier today. The elephant in the room is Scottish independence but sadly this site bans anyone wishing to discuss its defence implications.
Doris is undermining the UK by ignoring the reality of how Scots, Irish and some Welsh feel. If the idea of a British Federal structure was extended it might heal some wounds. Foreign policy and defence could be dealt with as an alliance, domestic issues left to devolved government, like the Swiss Cantons. Harking back to the empire just turns many people off.
The Westminster machine is out of touch.
A federal structure would undermine the integrity of the UK even more. Abandoning FPTP would remove the average Scot’s grievances with the Union. A federal structure will accelerate independence. Every power handed to Holyrood legitimises the SNP and the idea of an independent ‘Scottish government’. We are a unitary state, Labour and Conservatives need to start acting like it.
What integrity?
You mean control surely?
Well, probably not, I’m sure it’s in the debate somewhere. However, “Independence & EU membership are probably mutually exclusive concepts. I’m aware it has alarmed at least one vociferous supporter of Scottish Indy.
https://www.scotsman.com/news/opinion/columnists/insight-crucial-lessons-1975-europe-referendum-1481810
You’ve got to love politicians!
Not at all. Absolutly way off target with that post, you must do better.
Made me smile that. An Aldershot remark.
Ah the Shot, great days, the move to Colly was the biggest mistake the Brigade ever made….
We Catterick queens had colder winters lol!
Morning mate. Why is that?
Ah it probably wasnt but personaly and for lots of the lads we had close ties, family, ex members, history, good local training area etc in Aldershot. And job wise, Colchester was even further away form SPTA. Although there are other training areas, Thetford etc lots of the lads didnt like the move. But having been in Colchester for so long now I do enjoy and appreciate the massive amount of Roman/British/Anglo Saxon history….Cheers.
Right mate. I guessed that was the reason. Well Aldershite cannot stand up to Colchester Roman wise. I don’t live too far away from it!
The Empire was forged by the Scots just as much as any others.
Empire has nothing to do with English/Scottish relations other than a total mis-understanding of history (who imagine that England ”conquered” Scotland or something weird like that).
The Scots joined the union for gold after their failed colony. No other reason. They kept their own legal system and with it identity.
Doris is playing a neo colonial game with Scotland, NI and Wales.
He will actually undo the union by his ignorance.
A federal solution could save it.
Sadly many people commenting are unable to extend their thinking or analysis. Cooperation on defence and foreign policy would give credibility to smaller partners.
Then without appearing arrogant like the Greek named guy, I just give up on some of you.
The UK does not need your totalitarian input Ivan ,it seems you lack experience living in a democracy lol.
Stomkop.
DWAAS Ivan lol.
Dave, he is a scouser, he is no more South African than my bell-end!
DWAAS is a dutch word also H. Scouser? thats funny because he claimed he come from an ex soviet country the other day , what ever his persona he decides be ,lol its usually anti western nonsense he speaks.
Yeah, I’m afraid it was a poor joke based on my white van man comments….Jan van der werk!
lol ahh sorry read that literally.
I read the whole document earlier today. The elephant in the room is Scottish independence but sadly this site bans anyone wishing to discuss its defence implications.
We have over a dozen articles discussing the defence implications of Scottish independence… are you blind?
Bet alot of other countries can’t punch like the UK with the small numbers we now have still nice of the USA to say so ,hope there right.
I have noticed the comments have been full of arguing recently
when first read the title i thought: ” ouch. a bit harsh.” but then after i read the article it doesn’t sound so bad. i guess?
Mataphorically? Reducing our forces as low as they are now it seems like shrill words & little substance. Sustaining a major conflict if forced to from a base of 70,000 troops is a nightmare & we never should have gotten so low. I think the US are being excessively generous. Maybe it’s the 2 potentrial CSGs that they’re grateful for. But we need a larger army to sustain real warfighting so we have enough troops to rotate a decent size battle group without burning out the few left. Out of 70,000 how many will be front line? 10,000?+-? You have… Read more »
BJ’s reply to criticism on low numbers of british troops was that we still have 30,000 reservist in the army so the number is still 100,00 ,that’s his thinking lol.
Yes, but the fact remains that reducing by another 10,000 from c80,000 is a big cut from an already dangerously tiny army & as you cut serving numbers it will result in fewer reserves too down the line. Those few left get stretched further which discourages new recruits & encourages burn out of those left.It also limits what we can do. We’re fobbed off with “new technology”, which is usually speculative & unproven. Back in the Falklands war there was a significant gap between what our tech promised & what it delivered(e.g. Seaslug totally obsolete, seacat outdated & far less… Read more »
Even with a theoretical reserve of 30,000 the UK lacks the mass to undertake serious warfighting without allies. No government likes the military, until said military can be used for government purposes. A military should be there for defence, nothing else. Tale? I know a young infantryman. Had served for two years and was enjoying schemes and the life. Then over winter he found himself taking mouth swabs in a drive in test centre. He is now driving a lorry as a civilian, bluntly he said with the PC brigade on their case constantly, that being an NHS gopher was… Read more »
If you leave your houses windows open it’ll only be a matter of time before someone will break in. If you keep reducing our nations defences you encourage others to walk all over you & make far more dangerous for those few left serving. We are a key part of NATO & a permanent member of the UN security council, but reducing our forces too far makes us far less significant as a force for good & undermines both organisations.
If the SHTF we’d be having to recourse to nukes far sooner than should ever be considered.
I totally agree with you.
Agree broadly, remember Doris stated no reductions in numbers as an election pledge? And then orders more nukes. Honest I trust the guy and all politicians. Not.
I don’t think we have ever done serious warfjghting without allies, even if they sometimes take a few years to arrive. All expeditionary operations, less coming to the aid of a BOT, are constructed as Coalition operations. That’s not the point. The point is that we cannot contribute meaningfully with ground troops to a large-scale Coalition operation. We could probably field no more than 1 or 2 Brigade Combat Teams for a one-shot war and would struggle to sustain a single strong BCT in an enduring campaign.
About 25% of the 70,000 will be Infantry. At least 15% of the 70,000 will be non-deployable, probably more.
Spot on article. We need to enhance those enablers and niche capabilities that enable the UK to “punch above its weight” not get caught up with how many Tanks we have compared to others. Though as one of the G7 and UNSC P5 we are hardly minnows. Dear old JC also fell for that old chestnut, no doubt on purpose, by looking at a map and seeing a small island therefore we just be small. Saw him say as such. This nation will continue to be somebody on the world stage. Economically, in Soft Power, in intelligence capability, and in… Read more »
Good Morning, Gan. Constantly push faith in the collective wisdom of millions of voters over individual beliefs (including mine!). I’ve no doubt that the vast majority accept the outcome as fair within an open democracy. After all, we’re well used to this under 4/5 year general elections. However, the vast privilege granted the UK & other such states comes with serious individual voter responsibilities, I’m convinced. Whereas general elections are frequent, based essentially around a meander from right to left within a system that does not divert dramatically from a central point, referendum are a very different matter. Because these… Read more »
Absolutely spot on Gavin.
And the pint too!
Failure of the United States to manage a fair and free election process in the 2020 election, and many questions regarding several others, amongst many social problems exacerbated by other internal factors, may well lead to the break away of key states and the decline of fall of the 20th Century’s major superpower.
That’s my opinion.
Hardly worth bothering with then…Billythegoat!
I wonder what will come from this?
“A spokesperson from BAE Systems also told Janes at that time that the company had held discussions with India about possibilities for basing its aircraft carrier requirements on the UK Royal Navy’s Queen Elizabeth-class (QEC) platforms.
“The design is adaptable to offer either ski jump or catapult launch and can be modified to meet Indian Navy and local industry requirements,” said the spokesperson.”
https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/uk-india-council-pursues-carrier-opportunities_16850
‘Punching above our weight’ is not a compliment, it is a polite way of saying that our global aspirations are rather starkly at oďds with our ever-shrinking military. When the brown stuff hits the fan,, we will be measured by how many combat brigades we can put in the field and how many combat air squadrons we can muster. HMG has succeeded in cutting both to about the smallest in our history. 5 brigades, 3 of them light and well-underpowered, the 2 heavy brigades with a lot of elderly kit overdue for replacement, just 6 fast jet squadrons aka72 front… Read more »