Uncrewed systems are expected to make up a far larger share of naval forces operating in the North Atlantic over the next decade, with senior figures pointing to a clear shift in how maritime power will be structured and applied.
During a panel on innovation and transformation in the North Atlantic, Captain James Lovell RN, Head of Underwater Battlespace Capability at Navy Develop, was asked by myself how the region might look by the end of the decade, and whether uncrewed vessels would significantly outnumber crewed ones.
Lovell said the direction of travel was already clear, even if the exact numbers were still uncertain.
“If we are serious about mass persistence of sensing, which is where we need to be, then we need to start fielding things, developing things, and fielding things,” he said.
His point was a practical one. Covering a vast operating space such as the North Atlantic for extended periods is difficult and expensive with crewed ships and submarines alone, and the introduction of large numbers of autonomous systems is increasingly being seen as the only realistic way to widen coverage. When the question turned to whether uncrewed vessels could overtake traditional platforms in number, Adrian Fryer, AUKUS and Naval Director at Saab UK, gave the clearest answer of the session.
“In 10 years’ time, are there going to be more USVs, UUVs than crewed surface and subsurface vessels… absolutely no doubt, to my mind, 100% yes,” Fryer said.
That did not mean the panel saw this as a simple replacement story. Rear Admiral Paul Flos RNLN, Programme Director International Naval Materiel Cooperation at the Netherlands Ministry of Defence, cautioned against treating crewed and uncrewed systems as direct substitutes, arguing that different effects still require different types of platforms.
Flos said some people assume every new autonomous capability automatically replaces an existing one, but that was “absolutely not true.” He added that uncrewed systems should be understood as additions to the force, not wholesale replacements.
He then put it more directly. “If you want to achieve an effect which is better with people, you do it with people… if you can do it in a better way with persistence, you do it with persistence,” Flos said.
He also warned against reducing the issue to a simple either-or argument. “It’s not the black and white question,” he said.
The discussion pointed to a more distributed North Atlantic battlespace, with larger numbers of smaller autonomous systems providing wide-area sensing and persistence, while crewed vessels continue to handle missions that require judgement, flexibility and higher-end combat power. The direction is clear but the scale, pace and exact mix are still being worked through.
